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Nabs Kebabs RMT

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Nabs Kebabs
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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

GW21 REVIEW

Points: 46
GW Rank: 4.6m
OR: 4,330 :arrow: 6,804


A pretty poor GW there. The see-saw pattern continues. Since GW 11 my arrows have been: down, up, down, up, up, down, down, up, down, up, down.

I did of course go ahead with that Kane :arrow: Auba move I'd been banging on about. As I said, I had actually gone off the move a little bit but that was before Pogba got his haul against Bournemouth. I then knew I wanted Pogba ASAP so this was the best way to fund it. I lost 3 points as Kane scored 12 and Auba 9 but on another day Auba could have easily scored a hat trick. He missed 4 big chances which is something he pretty much never does. He's usually the most clinical in the league when it comes to big chances. I had a feeling Kane would do well against Cardiff as he has been doing very well away from home. Overall, I'm still feeling like the move should be pretty good as I plan to captain Auba 2-3 in his upcoming run and I expect him to do very well in those easy home fixtures.

My current set up for GW22 is this:

Button
VVD Alonso Bellerin AWB
Salah Hazard(c) Richarlison(vc) Pogba
Aubameyang Wilson

Ryan Kamara Doherty Hojbjerg

1FT, 0.6m

I've been thinking of doing Bellerin :arrow: TAA. I had been considering bringing in Digne in previous weeks but now it looks like Everton's defence just can't sort it self out and there doesn't seem to be a good target for Digne's crosses. He has all the assist potential in the world but his big haul actually came from 2 goals, which I don't seem him getting many more of.
On the other hand, Liverpool's fixtures are getting better and TAA looks exceptional value. Clyne has just moved on loan to Bournemouth so that makes TAA as nailed as anyone bar VVD in that Liverpool defence imo. I had been looking back through my season when I was getting a lot of green arrows and it was the double combo of Fraser and Wilson who played a big part in that. So perhaps the double up of VVD and TAA can help with volatility in my rank (hopefully in a positive direction). Despite having held Bellerin for several GW's through his injury, I haven't lost any value as I bought at 5.4m. He seems to have been on -97 to -98 on fplstatistics for around 5 days now but still hasn't fallen yet. I'll likely be waiting till a lot closer to the GW deadline to make the move though as I always prefer to be safe and have more information then worrying about 0.1m rises or falls.
Last edited by Nabs Kebabs on 07 Jan 2019, 11:01, edited 3 times in total.

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Aldershot Rejects
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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Nabs Kebabs wrote: 07 Jan 2019, 04:45

A pretty poor GW there. The see-saw patter continues. Since GW 11 my arrows have been: down, up, down, up, up, down, down, up, down, up, down.

In my limited experience, this is typical when you get into the top 10k - you hit a plateau and tend to oscillate. That's nothing to worry too much about - wait for the one or two good weeks that will give you an incremental jump.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 07 Jan 2019, 07:55
Nabs Kebabs wrote: 07 Jan 2019, 04:45

A pretty poor GW there. The see-saw patter continues. Since GW 11 my arrows have been: down, up, down, up, up, down, down, up, down, up, down.

In my limited experience, this is typical when you get into the top 10k - you hit a plateau and tend to oscillate. That's nothing to worry too much about - wait for the one or two good weeks that will give you an incremental jump.
Ditto
Bear in mind that doubling up can accentuate the peak and trough experience. Taking the TAA move and Liverpool double up as an example: Liverpool keep a clean sheet and your rank rises; they concede and the person with only one of their players and ANOther player who gets a clean sheet does better than you. But you’ve chosen the team with the best defensive record so the odds should be with you over time if that continues.
(All the usual caveats that it depends what you do with the rest of the cash, TAA attacking potential is a factor, etc)

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

Chips/BGW/DGW Planning:

Due to the FA Cup and League Cup, fpl managers have had a bit of a break after the busy festive schedule. I've mainly just been enjoying the time to take my mind off fpl for a bit, however, in the last few days I've really started to think a bit more about planning on how I want to use my chips and navigating the blank and double GW's.

Chips Played:
Bench Boost (GW1)
1st Wildcard (GW4)
Triple Captain (GW12)

Chips Remaining:
2nd Wildcard
Free Hit

I'm very happy with how I've used my chips thus far. The BB in GW1 got me off to a flying start with a GW rank of 1,009. I had slipped back a little in the following GW's and played the WC GW4 (this was actually planned in pre-season) and by GW10 I was well inside the top 10k. The triple captain went OK. I went for Salah at home to Fulham in GW12 where he scored 8 pts (x3). Some may class that as a fail but I don't see myself losing out on much more than 10-12 points worst case (directly). And the indirect effect is harder to measure, I now have more flexibility with my second WC and free hit. For example, let's say most managers use their triple captain in a DGW where using the second WC could be a much better option, but they of course can't do both in the same GW. Since I have used my TC, it gives me a better chance of optimizing the chips I have left. A lot of managers would have only used their first wildcard so extremely thorough planning will be required to get the best out of their chips, it's going to be quite a huge headache.

The BGW/DGW schedule is looking like this:

GW27: BGW (Due to League Cup Final)
GW31: BGW (Due to FA Cup QF)
GW32: DGW
GW33: BGW (Due to FA Cup SF)
GW35: DGW

What hasn't been properly accounted for is the resulting DGW from the League Cup Final. I believe there is a possibility that it could be brought forward to GW25. If not, there's a quite a few possibilities which are too difficult to plan to for at this point in time.

So at this stage, I'm just roughly planning. Here's some of my initial thoughts:
GW27 shouldn't be too hard to navigate with planning. Assuming Man City beat Burton, Everton vs City will become a blank. If Chelsea beat Tottenham, then their home fixture vs Brighton will be a blank. And if Tottenham win, Burnley vs Spurs will be a blank.
I only have Richarlison, Ryan/Button and Hazard from these teams. And we will know the result of these games in the next couple of weeks so planning should be relatively easy.

GW31 is likely to be very low scoring as this will be the GW when the most teams blank. As Fulham and Liverpool both got knocked out of the FA Cup, their match in GW31 will go ahead. I plan to have 3 Liverpool players by this GW deadline so that will be good to have in place for GW31. There is definitely a train of thought that says this GW is good for the free hit but since it's likely to be so low scoring, I'm currently thinking using FT's can be good enough. Rolling and FT through and having 2 for this GW definitely makes sense to me.

GW32 seems like it will be the biggest DGW. So my plan is to hit it hard. Playing my WC here makes the most sense to me.

GW33 is likely to have a few blanks and I like the idea of playing my free hit here. My WC the previous week will have been played to optimize DGW's so I can break it up with the free hit here to navigate the blanks.

I could then potentially save an FT in GW34 and then have 2 FT's for the DGW in GW35. My WC in GW32 will be prepared with this DGW in mind aswell.

So to summarize I plan to use my:
2nd Wildcard (GW32) and
Free hit (GW33)
Planning and rolling FT's to have 2 for the other BGW's/DGW's is the other strategy I'm looking to employ.

Who else has started to look ahead and plan for this part of the season?
Last edited by Nabs Kebabs on 10 Jan 2019, 16:33, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by TheRumourMill »

Hi Nabs, have enjoyed reading your blog over the last few weeks :)

There's a good thread on DGW and BGW planning here, which is where I've written most of my thoughts on the matter:

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=129549

Agree with you that your plan is a good one, another alternative is FH32 and WC 34, which i deploy will depend on the specifics really. It may be subtely different again if a number of sides have a dgw32 followed by a strong fixture in BGW33.

I think you're in a stong position having used 3 of your 5 chips to decent effect already. There certainly doesn't appear to be enough of an oppotunity to use them all optimally in blanks and doubles this year anyway. Not unless theres a strong DGW for City/Chelsea/Spurs somewhere caused by the GW27 blank.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

TheRumourMill wrote: 08 Jan 2019, 10:14 Hi Nabs, have enjoyed reading your blog over the last few weeks :)

There's a good thread on DGW and BGW planning here, which is where I've written most of my thoughts on the matter:

http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=129549

Agree with you that your plan is a good one, another alternative is FH32 and WC 34, which i deploy will depend on the specifics really. It may be subtely different again if a number of sides have a dgw32 followed by a strong fixture in BGW33.

I think you're in a stong position having used 3 of your 5 chips to decent effect already. There certainly doesn't appear to be enough of an oppotunity to use them all optimally in blanks and doubles this year anyway. Not unless theres a strong DGW for City/Chelsea/Spurs somewhere caused by the GW27 blank.
Great to hear you've been enjoying reading mate :)

Thanks a lot for that link. Didn't realize a lot of quality discussion on the subject has already been going on.

That could certainly be an option, but for now I still prefer the idea of playing the FH and WC both in the actual GW's of the BGW and DGW. As you suggest though, we'll just have to wait for the specifics and adapt accordingly.

On your comment about City/Chelsea/Spurs, I think there could potentially be a great TC option (Kane/Haz/Sterling/Kun) if there is a strong DGW due to the league cup.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Stena Bib »

Who's your captain this week ? Mines still on Hazard from last week [on Match of the Day ,the Morata offside looked on, would have been an Hazard assist. Plus he could have easily scored!!

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

GW22 Captaincy

I've just checked on FFS and Salah has 40% of the votes on the captain poll for the upcoming GW.

I am just baffled by that to be honest.

Brighton are no pushovers. These guys are notoriously hard to beat at home. Last season, they finished 8th on the home table and are in the same position on the home table this season. In comparison, they finished 15th in the table last season and currently 13th on the table.

Looking at defensive stats, they have conceded the 7th least big chances in the league season, less than the likes of Man U, Crystal Palace and Arsenal.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Salah score or goal or get an assist but I'd be very surprised to see him haul. I feel as though people are just picking him captain because he's Salah and not giving Brighton the respect they deserve.

Personally, i'm ruling him out of my captain/vice captain selection for the GW.

It then becomes a battle between Hazard(NEW) vs Aubameyang(whu).

On the face of it, Hazard looks better with the home fixture. One thing for sure about Newcastle and West Ham is they can't defend, they've conceded 51 and 50 big chances this season respectively (3rd and 4th worst in the league.)

The thing is, Newcastle won't come out to play at all against Chelsea. So it may not be easy for Chelsea to blow them away and they haven't exactly looked too convincing in attack lately. It seems like Hazard has to do everything himself as he can't rely on the likes of Morata, Giroud and Wilian to put away chances that he creates.

So, I'm leaning slightly towards Aubameyang. Pellegrini isn't the type of manager to just sit back which could really benefit someone like Aubameyang in behind. I've watched West Ham a few times this season and their defence really does look unorganized and disastrous at times. So I'm definitely expecting some good chances to come Aubameyang's way and it just becomes a matter of whether or not he can take them, something I wouldn't bet against.

Currently Aubamayeng(c), Hazard (vc)
Last edited by Nabs Kebabs on 10 Jan 2019, 16:31, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

Stena Bib wrote: 10 Jan 2019, 16:16 Who's your captain this week ? Mines still on Hazard from last week [on Match of the Day ,the Morata offside looked on, would have been an Hazard assist. Plus he could have easily scored!!
lol...I was already posting my thoughts about captaincy when you sent that! :)

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Nabs Kebabs wrote:Currently Aubamayeng(c), Hazard (vc).
That's where I am too but it seems very close between the two for me. I am pretty convinced that Hazard will at least score or assist and he often only needs 1 goal for 3 BPs. And with Newcastle, the floodgates can open if they come under pressure, as happened at Anfield recently and at Old Trafford back in October. Chelsea also have a habit of putting a few on Newcastle at Stamford Bridge and Hazard's record against them is very good personally. Against that has to be set that Newcastle will certainly come to defend and Chelsea haven't been fluent goalscorers recently.

Arsenal seem to be scoring more goals, they have to really because they can't defend. Aubameyang is clearly their main man and his xG recently is through the roof, just they haven't mostly been going in. But I do feel that a haul should come soon for him and with West Ham distracted by the Arnautovic situation and no better defensively than Newcastle, it could easily be this weekend. That's why I marginally prefer PEA; I think he's the most likely of the two to haul, though Hazard is probably the safety play.

Arsenal xG last 6 away: 7.62 (but bear in mind that one of those was when they were crushed at Anfield)
Chelsea xG last 6 home: 8.99

West Ham xGC last 6 home: 9.50
Newcastle xGC last 6 away: 9.90

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by dod »

Nabs Kebabs wrote: 10 Jan 2019, 16:23 GW22 Captaincy

I've just checked on FFS and Salah has 40% of the votes on the captain poll for the upcoming GW.

I am just baffled by that to be honest.

Brighton are no pushovers. These guys are notoriously hard to beat at home. Last season, they finished 8th on the home table and are in the same position on the home table this season. In comparison, they finished 15th in the table last season and currently 13th on the table.

Looking at defensive stats, they have conceded the 7th least big chances in the league season, less than the likes of Man U, Crystal Palace and Arsenal.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Salah score or goal or get an assist but I'd be very surprised to see him haul. I feel as though people are just picking him captain because he's Salah and not giving Brighton the respect they deserve.

Personally, i'm ruling him out of my captain/vice captain selection for the GW.

It then becomes a battle between Hazard(NEW) vs Aubameyang(whu).

On the face of it, Hazard looks better with the home fixture. One thing for sure about Newcastle and West Ham is they can't defend, they've conceded 51 and 50 big chances this season respectively (3rd and 4th worst in the league.)

The thing is, Newcastle won't come out to play at all against Chelsea. So it may not be easy for Chelsea to blow them away and they haven't exactly looked too convincing in attack lately. It seems like Hazard has to do everything himself as he can't rely on the likes of Morata, Giroud and Wilian to put away chances that he creates.

So, I'm leaning slightly towards Aubameyang. Pellegrini isn't the type of manager to just sit back which could really benefit someone like Aubameyang in behind. I've watched West Ham a few times this season and their defence really does look unorganized and disastrous at times. So I'm definitely expecting some good chances to come Aubameyang's way and it just becomes a matter of whether or not he can take them, something I wouldn't bet against.

Currently Aubamayeng(c), Hazard (vc)
I totally agree with your assessment here. I don't own Salah but wouldn't give him the armband even if I did. I have the exact same captain and vc as you.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by TheRumourMill »

Nabs Kebabs wrote: 10 Jan 2019, 15:55
TheRumourMill wrote: 08 Jan 2019, 10:14 Hi Nabs, have enjoyed reading your blog over the last few weeks :)

There's a good thread on DGW and BGW planning here, which is where I've written most of my thoughts on the matter:

http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=129549

Agree with you that your plan is a good one, another alternative is FH32 and WC 34, which i deploy will depend on the specifics really. It may be subtely different again if a number of sides have a dgw32 followed by a strong fixture in BGW33.

I think you're in a stong position having used 3 of your 5 chips to decent effect already. There certainly doesn't appear to be enough of an oppotunity to use them all optimally in blanks and doubles this year anyway. Not unless theres a strong DGW for City/Chelsea/Spurs somewhere caused by the GW27 blank.
Great to hear you've been enjoying reading mate :)

Thanks a lot for that link. Didn't realize a lot of quality discussion on the subject has already been going on.

That could certainly be an option, but for now I still prefer the idea of playing the FH and WC both in the actual GW's of the BGW and DGW. As you suggest though, we'll just have to wait for the specifics and adapt accordingly.

On your comment about City/Chelsea/Spurs, I think there could potentially be a great TC option (Kane/Haz/Sterling/Kun) if there is a strong DGW due to the league cup.
No worries, its a good thread to monitor, been keeping an eye on it myself. I think you're right about a small GW caused by the league cup, its ideally suited to the TC as it doesn't require the planning that a bench boost does. Both blanks dropping into GW25 would be ideal actually as there would be 2 wonderful fixtures for either Chelsea or Spurs.

Totally agree with what you and the other posters have said here regarding this week's captaincy also. All week the discussion in various FPL circles (FFS scoutcast, WGTA podcast, FPL General Podcast, etc etc) has been revolving around either they themselves getting Salah back in, or community questions on the same subject. And with that, I think theres almost an assumption that Mo gets the armband automatically, without them conducting due dilligence on the captaincy. I think a lot of people have got tunnel vision on the Salah matter personally,and I think thats what is driving the FFS captaincy poll. Which may be a good thing, as if what happens this weekend reflects what the stats are pointing towards, then there could be some significant rank gains for those capping Hazard or Aubameyang over Salah.

There's quite a few push and pull factors in play aswell, some may be insignificant but I'll list them anyway. I'll not reel off the stats as they can be found elsewhere, suffice to say that they point towards Hazard and Auba over Salah.

Furthermore:

The push factors against Salah, are the fact he has been ill over the last few days. He has also been in the middle east and africa for various award ceremonies, meaning he has missed at least 2 days training, possibly 3, as he only arrived back today. I think his only training this week will be tomorrows. It might not be the end of the world but its hardly ideal preperation. Furthermore, we know Liverpool will be missing Gomez, Lovren and Matip, and VVD missed Mondays game due to injury/fatigue too. This may require a bit of a tactical reshuffle which could lead to impact on Liverpool's attacking play.

The pull factor towards Hazard is the fact that on Tuesday we saw that Pedro and Willian and Giroud are all back from injury. This gives Sarri the opportunity to return to Hazard as a false 9 (which seemed to be his preferred option prior to injury crisis). Furthermore, Morata appears to be hamstrung/off abroad, which should hopefully mean he is nowhere near the pitch at the weekend.

And the pull factors towards Aubameyang are the fact that most of Arsenals injured players are returning. This should give Emery the chance to play his preferred formation and the defence will surely be more solid now. Ozil back is a boost in terms of midfield creativity too, if selected. We might see the 3-5-2 return here, I suspect. Also, West Ham might not be in the best frame of mind right now if Arnie goes into sulk mode. There's a chance this is all political mavourvering to force West Ham to give him an improved contract, but I remember 2 years ago Diego Costa missing a game due to Chinese interest. The same could happen here and if it does and Arsenal take the lead it won't take much for the locals to become restless about the whole thing. Remember last year v Burnley where the crowd were all lobbing coins at the porn brothers? Not suggesting that will quite happen again but it could get pretty hostile and play into Arsenal hands.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 10 Jan 2019, 18:18
Nabs Kebabs wrote:Currently Aubamayeng(c), Hazard (vc).
That's where I am too but it seems very close between the two for me. I am pretty convinced that Hazard will at least score or assist and he often only needs 1 goal for 3 BPs. And with Newcastle, the floodgates can open if they come under pressure, as happened at Anfield recently and at Old Trafford back in October. Chelsea also have a habit of putting a few on Newcastle at Stamford Bridge and Hazard's record against them is very good personally. Against that has to be set that Newcastle will certainly come to defend and Chelsea haven't been fluent goalscorers recently.

Arsenal seem to be scoring more goals, they have to really because they can't defend. Aubameyang is clearly their main man and his xG recently is through the roof, just they haven't mostly been going in. But I do feel that a haul should come soon for him and with West Ham distracted by the Arnautovic situation and no better defensively than Newcastle, it could easily be this weekend. That's why I marginally prefer PEA; I think he's the most likely of the two to haul, though Hazard is probably the safety play.

Arsenal xG last 6 away: 7.62 (but bear in mind that one of those was when they were crushed at Anfield)
Chelsea xG last 6 home: 8.99

West Ham xGC last 6 home: 9.50
Newcastle xGC last 6 away: 9.90
That's a great point that Hazard usually doesn't have to do much to dominate the BAPS. I suppose our definitions of a haul also have to be defined here. I think Hazard is a better chance to score 7-11 but Auba more likely to be 5-6 or 12+. I feel as though Auba will need atleast 2 attacking returns to dominate baps as it's likely to be high scoring from both teams. So I definitely agree that Hazard looks a safer pick.
TheRumourMill wrote: 10 Jan 2019, 22:03 No worries, its a good thread to monitor, been keeping an eye on it myself. I think you're right about a small GW caused by the league cup, its ideally suited to the TC as it doesn't require the planning that a bench boost does. Both blanks dropping into GW25 would be ideal actually as there would be 2 wonderful fixtures for either Chelsea or Spurs.

Totally agree with what you and the other posters have said here regarding this week's captaincy also. All week the discussion in various FPL circles (FFS scoutcast, WGTA podcast, FPL General Podcast, etc etc) has been revolving around either they themselves getting Salah back in, or community questions on the same subject. And with that, I think theres almost an assumption that Mo gets the armband automatically, without them conducting due dilligence on the captaincy. I think a lot of people have got tunnel vision on the Salah matter personally,and I think thats what is driving the FFS captaincy poll. Which may be a good thing, as if what happens this weekend reflects what the stats are pointing towards, then there could be some significant rank gains for those capping Hazard or Aubameyang over Salah.

There's quite a few push and pull factors in play aswell, some may be insignificant but I'll list them anyway. I'll not reel off the stats as they can be found elsewhere, suffice to say that they point towards Hazard and Auba over Salah.

Furthermore:

The push factors against Salah, are the fact he has been ill over the last few days. He has also been in the middle east and africa for various award ceremonies, meaning he has missed at least 2 days training, possibly 3, as he only arrived back today. I think his only training this week will be tomorrows. It might not be the end of the world but its hardly ideal preperation. Furthermore, we know Liverpool will be missing Gomez, Lovren and Matip, and VVD missed Mondays game due to injury/fatigue too. This may require a bit of a tactical reshuffle which could lead to impact on Liverpool's attacking play.

The pull factor towards Hazard is the fact that on Tuesday we saw that Pedro and Willian and Giroud are all back from injury. This gives Sarri the opportunity to return to Hazard as a false 9 (which seemed to be his preferred option prior to injury crisis). Furthermore, Morata appears to be hamstrung/off abroad, which should hopefully mean he is nowhere near the pitch at the weekend.

And the pull factors towards Aubameyang are the fact that most of Arsenals injured players are returning. This should give Emery the chance to play his preferred formation and the defence will surely be more solid now. Ozil back is a boost in terms of midfield creativity too, if selected. We might see the 3-5-2 return here, I suspect. Also, West Ham might not be in the best frame of mind right now if Arnie goes into sulk mode. There's a chance this is all political mavourvering to force West Ham to give him an improved contract, but I remember 2 years ago Diego Costa missing a game due to Chinese interest. The same could happen here and if it does and Arsenal take the lead it won't take much for the locals to become restless about the whole thing. Remember last year v Burnley where the crowd were all lobbing coins at the porn brothers? Not suggesting that will quite happen again but it could get pretty hostile and play into Arsenal hands.
I really think you may be on to something with your pull factor towards Hazard. I hadn't realized Morata had an injury which I think is actually great for Chelsea's attack. Pedro being back is also a big one imo, I reckon he's easily the best finisher at Chelsea so he should increase the chances of Haz getting an assist. Giroud also seems to work well with Haz from the eye test due to the flick ons he can pull off.

The West Ham vs Arsenal game is quite hard to predict. The only thing I think we can predict is a lot of goals. One thing that has me slightly turned off Auba, is he started the last game playing on the right flank. Emery has said he really likes the combo of Iwobi and Kolasinac creating an overload on the left - I'm not sure if this is good for Auba since he's right footed. It's much easier to score from the left flank for a right footer due to the angle - maybe I'm reading into it a bit too much though. He did look dangerous both from the right and central against Fulham but his returns both came when he moved central due to Lacazette being subbed off.

I think I may be leaning slightly the other way now to Hazard(c) and Aubamayeng(vc)...

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by TheRumourMill »

Nabs Kebabs wrote: 11 Jan 2019, 03:51
I really think you may be on to something with your pull factor towards Hazard. I hadn't realized Morata had an injury which I think is actually great for Chelsea's attack. Pedro being back is also a big one imo, I reckon he's easily the best finisher at Chelsea so he should increase the chances of Haz getting an assist. Giroud also seems to work well with Haz from the eye test due to the flick ons he can pull off.

The West Ham vs Arsenal game is quite hard to predict. The only thing I think we can predict is a lot of goals. One thing that has me slightly turned off Auba, is he started the last game playing on the right flank. Emery has said he really likes the combo of Iwobi and Kolasinac creating an overload on the left - I'm not sure if this is good for Auba since he's right footed. It's much easier to score from the left flank for a right footer due to the angle - maybe I'm reading into it a bit too much though. He did look dangerous both from the right and central against Fulham but his returns both came when he moved central due to Lacazette being subbed off.

I think I may be leaning slightly the other way now to Hazard(c) and Aubamayeng(vc)...
Yeah I read something on twitter the other day where a guy had crunched the numbers, he found that Hazard performed best with Giroud, then as a false 9, then with Morata in that order. He tends to score more when playing with Giroud, balance goals and assists when a false 9, and only get assists when playing alongside Morata.

I think there will be goals in West Ham v Arsenal, but all Arsenals defenders returning means i am inclined to think there will be less going in the Arsenal goal than people assume. Looking at the data from the Fulham match, Aubameyang actually had over 1.0 of his 1.81 expected goals from the right wing position you describe. So I don't think its too much of an issue. He will probabaly move central anyway when Emery inevitably takes Lacazette off to scenes of much frustration from Lacazette :lol:

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Yeah, I looked at the average position map from the last game and Aubameyang was pretty central (just to the right of centre). Lacazette was dead centre but deeper.

If you are focused on preserving rank, NK, then Hazard is probably safer because you mitigate risk that way; Hazard will have an EO far in advance of Aubameyang this week. But if you are playing 'pure' then Aubameyang has the greater potential. That's how I see it anyway and I'm pretty settled on Aubameyang now.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by TheRumourMill »

Just to keep you posted, Morata has recovered from his hamstring strain, is back in training and according to Sarri "may feature". As Hazard owners, god help us all.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

I've settled on Hazard(c)...Morata fit is a concern but I can't see him starting so not too worried about that.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Stena Bib »

Nabs Kebabs wrote: 11 Jan 2019, 15:40 I've settled on Hazard(c)...Morata fit is a concern but I can't see him starting so not too worried about that.
This has been a great post. I am still on Hazard [C] my alternatives are Salah and Kane , so do not own Auba yet [it may change in the future]

We know Hazard is streaky, But he is definately due!! :D :D

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

Stena Bib wrote: 11 Jan 2019, 16:57
Nabs Kebabs wrote: 11 Jan 2019, 15:40 I've settled on Hazard(c)...Morata fit is a concern but I can't see him starting so not too worried about that.
This has been a great post. I am still on Hazard [C] my alternatives are Salah and Kane , so do not own Auba yet [it may change in the future]

We know Hazard is streaky, But he is definately due!! :D :D
I'd definitely be going Hazard(c) in your situation...agree that he's due for a nice haul at home, let's hope this is the GW! :)

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

GW22 PREVIEW

I've decided to hold off on bringing in TAA this week. One of the reasons is that I think Liverpool may struggle this week away at Brighton who have scored in every home game so far this season and Liverpool are being forced to use Fabinho as a centre half due to injuries. The other (and more important) reason is that I really want to have 2FT for next GW. I'm actually thinking about bringing Kane back next GW. I have all kinds of options in mind...one of them is even Salah :arrow: Shaqiri :shock: . More on this will be discussed next week but bottom line is I want 2FT's in my pocket.

Button
Alonso VVD AWB
Salah Hazard(c) Pogba Richarlison
Aubameyang(vc) Wilson Kamara

Ryan Bellerin Doherty Hojbjerg


1FT, 0.6m ITB

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by TheCrystalBall »

2 frees next week look important if you’re targeting Kane. I came to the same decision although had 2 frees this week as well and decided to use 1 on Wilson to Rashford ahead of Man U’s good run.

I think that’s slightly to the detriment of this game week as personally I have too many players with tough fixtures. Although maybe better to keep the powder dry until the better fixtures next week.

Good luck for the GW

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

TheCrystalBall wrote: 12 Jan 2019, 04:35 2 frees next week look important if you’re targeting Kane. I came to the same decision although had 2 frees this week as well and decided to use 1 on Wilson to Rashford ahead of Man U’s good run.

I think that’s slightly to the detriment of this game week as personally I have too many players with tough fixtures. Although maybe better to keep the powder dry until the better fixtures next week.

Good luck for the GW
Thanks mate, good luck to you too :)

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

GW22 REVIEW

Points: 47
GW Rank: 3.3m
OR: 6,804 :arrow: 13,099


Having been inside the top 10k since GW10, I've now slipped outside. I had been getting a bit frustrated for a few weeks and GW22 was where my concerns were justified. I've been playing very conservatively this season, having not taken a hit thus far (I've never gone this far into the season without taking one) and I had actually had plans to take a -8 or even -12 for GW23. However, Kane then got injured which changed plans. I was actually very close to bringing in TAA on Tuesday (and he was about to rise) but decided to put it off till when I finished work in the off chance there'd be some injury news about him as a I knew he had a problem in the warm up the Brighton game. It turned out to be a wise decision as news broke he'd be out for a around a month when I got home off from my shift at work.

Currently, my team is as follows:

Button
VVD Alonso Doherty
Salah(c) Hazard Pogba(vc) Richarlison Hojbjerg
Aubameyang Wilson

Ryan Bellerin AWB Kamara

0.6m, 2FT.

I'm very frustrated with Kamara. I played him when he missed the penalty (and at the end of that GW told myself that I won't give him another chance in my 11) but changed my mind last GW as he had Burnley after coming on and scoring against Arsenal (and Ranieri said in the post match that he had forgiven Kamara for stealing the penalty off Mitrovic). He didn't show up against Burnley and the reports have now come out that it's because he had a fight with Mitrovic during a yoga session....it seems like Ranieri has had enough and so have I.

The other player I'm likely moving on is Alonso. I just don't think he is justifying his price anymore. If you compare his stats from GW1-4 and GW5 onwards, the decline in his attacking threat is very noticeable. The fixtures have turned a bit so I think now is the right time to get rid. There is still the chance of Chelsea having a DGW 25 but that is a small chance and Hazard would be more important to own anyway for the captain option. I plan on holding on to Haz now that Kane is injured (he would've been the one to make way). Despite Haz's pathetic 8 points against SOT and NEW, I don't see many options to replace him (I don't like the City options because of rotation) so I feel like it makes sense to just hold him...can actually see him doing a lot of damage away at Arsenal and Bournemouth.

The two transfers I have in mind are:
Alonso :arrow: Shaw
Kamara :arrow: Jiminez

Shaw's fixtures are still very good and I think represents very good value. Has played 90 mins in all EPL matches under OGS, and has decent attacking threat and BPS potential. At 5.0m, I don't see many better options. I actually really like Holebas @4.8m but he's on 8YC's and it's a 2 match ban once you get 10. I don't trust that character at all when it comes to cards.

Jiminez has a fantastic run coming up, his next 7 are: LEI/WHU/eve/NEW/bou/hud/CAR. Since Rashford has risen 0.2m this week, he is 1.1m cheaper and honestly I don't see Rashford scoring much, if any more points than Jiminez. Also, the United attackers drop as fast as they rise so if Rashford loses his place in the team (very feasible considering Lukaku and Sanchez haven't been regulars under OGS yet) you can come under a lot of pressure to sell. I could afford Rashford if I got someone like Bennett instead of Shaw but I much prefer Shaw + Jiminez over Bennett + Rashford.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Joccki_10 »

Nabs Kebabs wrote: 17 Jan 2019, 07:36 Shaw's fixtures are still very good and I think represents very good value. Has played 90 mins in all EPL matches under OGS, and has decent attacking threat and BPS potential. At 5.0m, I don't see many better options.
This is based on what information? What I can make up out of his ICT-index is he has almost no attacking threat whatsoever so I’d be very interested in where you think his attacking potential should come from.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

Joccki_10 wrote: 17 Jan 2019, 09:50
Nabs Kebabs wrote: 17 Jan 2019, 07:36 Shaw's fixtures are still very good and I think represents very good value. Has played 90 mins in all EPL matches under OGS, and has decent attacking threat and BPS potential. At 5.0m, I don't see many better options.
This is based on what information? What I can make up out of his ICT-index is he has almost no attacking threat whatsoever so I’d be very interested in where you think his attacking potential should come from.
I did only use the word "decent" to describe his attacking threat so I'm not saying he's like a Digne or Kolasinac. He has got a goal and 2 assists so far this season which suggests he has more than no attacking threat whatsoever. I just had a look at the ICT index - for creativity he's only 1 spot behind Pereira who has 5 assists this season and for threat he's ranked quite high for a fullback. The only fullbacks ahead of him are PVA, Alonso, Bellerin, Pereira and Digne. Doherty and Jonny are also ahead of him but they're wingbacks so that's not much of a surprise. His influence rating is average (still the best from United defenders) but I don't even know what the hell influence actually is.

From the eye test, he does look a decent threat and his stats are nothing to be sniffed at either. 14 goal attempts (half of them in the box and half of them on target). 8 successful crosses (1 less than Robertson) and 14 chances created.

So I think it's reasonable to say that he has decent attacking threat, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him score or assist in the upcoming run and even if he doesn't, he can easily still represent good value @5.0m

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Joccki_10 »

Hmm, Shaw is on my watchlist and I might bring him in this GW as well but I’m not convinced by his attacking potential. A while ago I’d rather have Young as he was on both corners and free-kicks but now that Rashford’s banging them in he’s only on corners. I’m happy to be proved wrong though.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by TheRumourMill »

I'd be tempted to leave Kamara alone. By upgrading him you're comitting to 3 up front every week, and with Doherty and AWB having good fixtures upcoming every week for a few weeks now I'd be tempted to play them both in a 4-4-2. I think your current structure is good and focussing on more money on the pitch now the xmas period is over is a wise strategy. I would therefore continue with Alonso to Shaw, but would instead do Wilson to Rashford.

You then have a strong attacking 6 every week, 2 good premium defenders in Shaw and VVD, and can then play 2 of Bellerin, Doherty and AWB every week.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Nabs Kebabs »

TheRumourMill wrote: 17 Jan 2019, 13:55 I'd be tempted to leave Kamara alone. By upgrading him you're comitting to 3 up front every week, and with Doherty and AWB having good fixtures upcoming every week for a few weeks now I'd be tempted to play them both in a 4-4-2. I think your current structure is good and focussing on more money on the pitch now the xmas period is over is a wise strategy. I would therefore continue with Alonso to Shaw, but would instead do Wilson to Rashford.

You then have a strong attacking 6 every week, 2 good premium defenders in Shaw and VVD, and can then play 2 of Bellerin, Doherty and AWB every week.
Leaving Kamara has definitely been in my thoughts, I just really want to boot the idiot. But at the of the day, he's a 4.5m idiot so it's not exactly urgent.

I don't mind your suggestion but removing Wilson when he has West Ham at home is simply not how I like to play...assuming he's fit I'd much rather have him this week than Rashford vs Brighton (who are very good at defending). Maybe just using 1 FT could be a good option. I do agree that buying Jiminez could be a bit of an overkill and benching headache due to the good fixtures my defenders have (i may end up playing 5 in some weeks).

Perhaps Alonso :arrow: Robertson and roll the other FT could work well. Robbo is 6.7m now though but I could downgrade him to TAA at some point when he's back. Livepool's fixtures are excellent and not many managers will have a double now that TAA is injured so this could potentially work really well.

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by TheRumourMill »

Nabs Kebabs wrote: 17 Jan 2019, 14:32
TheRumourMill wrote: 17 Jan 2019, 13:55 I'd be tempted to leave Kamara alone. By upgrading him you're comitting to 3 up front every week, and with Doherty and AWB having good fixtures upcoming every week for a few weeks now I'd be tempted to play them both in a 4-4-2. I think your current structure is good and focussing on more money on the pitch now the xmas period is over is a wise strategy. I would therefore continue with Alonso to Shaw, but would instead do Wilson to Rashford.

You then have a strong attacking 6 every week, 2 good premium defenders in Shaw and VVD, and can then play 2 of Bellerin, Doherty and AWB every week.
Leaving Kamara has definitely been in my thoughts, I just really want to boot the idiot. But at the of the day, he's a 4.5m idiot so it's not exactly urgent.

I don't mind your suggestion but removing Wilson when he has West Ham at home is simply not how I like to play...assuming he's fit I'd much rather have him this week than Rashford vs Brighton (who are very good at defending). Maybe just using 1 FT could be a good option. I do agree that buying Jiminez could be a bit of an overkill and benching headache due to the good fixtures my defenders have (i may end up playing 5 in some weeks).

Perhaps Alonso :arrow: Robertson and roll the other FT could work well. Robbo is 6.7m now though but I could downgrade him to TAA at some point when he's back. Livepool's fixtures are excellent and not many managers will have a double now that TAA is injured so this could potentially work really well.
Yeah Kamara has certainly blotted his copybook. But at 4.5m, he's base price so can quite happily sit as third sub hopefully without being required to be called upon. Regarding Wilson, thats a fair point mate, I can certainly see why you would want to keep him for this week at least. In that case then, I agree with your suggestion of Alonso to Robertson and roll. Robertson is still justifying his cost even as a 6.7m asset, Liverpool have no blanks either so he could quite happily sit in your squad from now until season end too, if you wish. The double up of Liverpool defenders is certainly a nice differential over most FPL managers. I think this will be a week where a lot of hits are taken (I'm on a -8 myself!) so just by not taking a hit you've already got a 2-3 point head start on most this week aswell :)

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Re: Nabs Kebabs RMT

Post by Stena Bib »

TheRumourMill wrote: 17 Jan 2019, 16:35
Nabs Kebabs wrote: 17 Jan 2019, 14:32
TheRumourMill wrote: 17 Jan 2019, 13:55 I'd be tempted to leave Kamara alone. By upgrading him you're comitting to 3 up front every week, and with Doherty and AWB having good fixtures upcoming every week for a few weeks now I'd be tempted to play them both in a 4-4-2. I think your current structure is good and focussing on more money on the pitch now the xmas period is over is a wise strategy. I would therefore continue with Alonso to Shaw, but would instead do Wilson to Rashford.

You then have a strong attacking 6 every week, 2 good premium defenders in Shaw and VVD, and can then play 2 of Bellerin, Doherty and AWB every week.
Leaving Kamara has definitely been in my thoughts, I just really want to boot the idiot. But at the of the day, he's a 4.5m idiot so it's not exactly urgent.

I don't mind your suggestion but removing Wilson when he has West Ham at home is simply not how I like to play...assuming he's fit I'd much rather have him this week than Rashford vs Brighton (who are very good at defending). Maybe just using 1 FT could be a good option. I do agree that buying Jiminez could be a bit of an overkill and benching headache due to the good fixtures my defenders have (i may end up playing 5 in some weeks).

Perhaps Alonso :arrow: Robertson and roll the other FT could work well. Robbo is 6.7m now though but I could downgrade him to TAA at some point when he's back. Livepool's fixtures are excellent and not many managers will have a double now that TAA is injured so this could potentially work really well.
Yeah Kamara has certainly blotted his copybook. But at 4.5m, he's base price so can quite happily sit as third sub hopefully without being required to be called upon. Regarding Wilson, thats a fair point mate, I can certainly see why you would want to keep him for this week at least. In that case then, I agree with your suggestion of Alonso to Robertson and roll. Robertson is still justifying his cost even as a 6.7m asset, Liverpool have no blanks either so he could quite happily sit in your squad from now until season end too, if you wish. The double up of Liverpool defenders is certainly a nice differential over most FPL managers. I think this will be a week where a lot of hits are taken (I'm on a -8 myself!) so just by not taking a hit you've already got a 2-3 point head start on most this week aswell :)
V Ronka has had Kamara 3rd sub all season, that's all he expected for the price!!

I have just brought Kamara in, Then saw the news of Babel being signed on loan until the end of the season.

So Will bide my time and probably replace with Solanke :idea:
Or Quaner if i get desperate for 0.2 ?

Edit: Babel 5.5 Mid !!
Last edited by Stena Bib on 17 Jan 2019, 18:35, edited 1 time in total.

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