Nabs Kebabs RMT

[Nabs Kebabs]

G'day FISO

First time poster here. Been lurking a bit lately and sick of boring old FFS. Have noticed my good friend Ruth_NZ has put a bit of a break on his RMT thread so thought why no start my own as I've just started my university holidays for Summer here in Australia.

Been playing fpl since 2010 when I was just 13 years old. However, started to take it seriously in 2012. Had a terrible season last season where i forgot multiple deadlines and had a 5 week holiday during December/January in Africa and Europe. This season, I've got my motivation and focus back to play fpl. Really enjoying it again after playing like a complete casual last season.

History/team link: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/ent ... 59/history

Something that I've really been thinking about this season is having my own philosophy about playing fpl. In previous seasons, I've sort of just played things as they come, however, this season I've found myself really sticking to certain principles a lot more. This is going to be a bit random, but here is my current fpl philosophy summarized in dot points:

•Plan ahead - To fail to plan is to plan to fail.
•Think long term - is the player you are transferring in only good for a one week punt? Is it really going to be worth in that case? Looking at periods of atleast 5-6 GW's for transfers is a more sustainable strategy.
•Avoid hits - This one is actually tied in with the points above. By planning ahead and making long term moves, you should be able to avoid hits. I'm not against hits in isolation, the idea is to avoid getting into situations where you need hits as much as possible.
•Exploit value - In a game where we have a budget, value is going to extremely important. 343 has been the go-to formation in fpl for many years but if value falls in defence, why not play with 4 at the back? If an expensive big hitter has a bad run of fixtures where you wouldn't captain him, how is he offering any value in your team? Why not restructure and shift the funds or spread them out more?
•Points>TV - Some fpl managers make their transfers for the next GW even before the current one is over. Who really knows what could happen before the next GW deadline? Always try and have maximum information before making decisions and rather go after points than price rises.
•Trust yourself - In the age of information overload, it can be easy to get sucked into with the herd. Don't be afraid to back yourself in and do something different if you have logical reasoning.
•Have fun

[Nabs Kebabs]

I got off to a great start this season where I used the bench boost in GW1 and scored 110 points for an OR of 1009. I initially got this idea at the start of the 16/17 season from Ruth_NZ when he used to post more regularly on FFS. I managed a GW rank well inside the top 1k on that occasion where I also used my bench boost in GW1. I slipped back for a few weeks but have been back in the top 10k for several GW's now.

Currently my team looks like this after having just transferred Aguero Kane:
GW15:

Ryan
Alonso Van Dijk Bellerin Doherty
Hazard Richarlison Martial
Kane(c) Arnautovic Wilson(vc)

Button Wan-Bissaka Paterson Hojbjerg
5.6m ITB

Yep, I have 5.6m sitting in the bank. This is because I transferred out Salah for Martial two GW's ago with the idea of getting Kane and an Arsenal attacker in. I've now got Kane and will likely be getting Aubameyang in for Wilson next GW.

[dod]

As a fellow lurker who has just started a blog on here I'd just like to say "G'day" and wish you luck.

[Nabs Kebabs]

As a fellow lurker who has just started a blog on here I'd just like to say "G'day" and wish you luck.

Cheers mate! Came across your blog today, and find it really interesting. Will be following and likely contributing.

[skip]

Welcome Nabs, and thanks for sharing your team. Nice to have a fellow VVD owner, must be happy with his amazing 96th minute assist yesterday!

[dod]

As a fellow lurker who has just started a blog on here I'd just like to say "G'day" and wish you luck.

Cheers mate! Came across your blog today, and find it really interesting. Will be following and likely contributing.

[Nabs Kebabs]

Welcome Nabs, and thanks for sharing your team. Nice to have a fellow VVD owner, must be happy with his amazing 96th minute assist yesterday!

Thanks for the welcome Skip! The VVD haul was lovely considering all the points Robertson and Alexander-Arnold have been getting, even VVD couldn't believe it could be awarded as an assist though! https://twitter.com/OfficialFPL/status/ ... 9965437952

[Ruth_NZ]

Welcome to FISO.

[Nabs Kebabs]

Welcome to FISO.

Thankyou mate, hope you're well

[Aldershot Rejects]

yes, welcome on board NK

[Ruth_NZ]

Welcome Nabs, and thanks for sharing your team. Nice to have a fellow VVD owner, must be happy with his amazing 96th minute assist yesterday!

Thanks for the welcome Skip! The VVD haul was lovely considering all the points Robertson and Alexander-Arnold have been getting, even VVD couldn't believe it could be awarded as an assist though!

It wasn't a bloody assist, it was all Pickford's doing. But now I know you had him (and Joccki did as well) I don't mind so much. About time Liverpool stopped getting all these lucky CSs though.

[Nabs Kebabs]

Welcome Nabs, and thanks for sharing your team. Nice to have a fellow VVD owner, must be happy with his amazing 96th minute assist yesterday!

Thanks for the welcome Skip! The VVD haul was lovely considering all the points Robertson and Alexander-Arnold have been getting, even VVD couldn't believe it could be awarded as an assist though!

It wasn't a bloody assist, it was all Pickford's doing. But now I know you had him (and Joccki did as well) I don't mind so much. About time Liverpool stopped getting all these lucky CSs though.

[Nabs Kebabs]

GW15 REVIEW

A solid 72 points and a green arrow from 6,253 to 2,960 OR.

My policy of sticking with nailed on players for this period clearly worked well as the likes of Guardiola and Klopp rotated heavily.

As with most active managers, the main question is what to do with Arnie now. My inital plan was to bring in an Arsenal forward for Wilson, so I'll just hold onto Wilson as he is proving great value at his price despite a fairly poor run of fixtures coming up.

AUBA vs LACA

Auba vs Laca is the conundrum many are facing. I'm leaning towards Laca.
•Auba has played many minutes recently and could be due for a rest
•Laca was Arsenal's most nailed attacker from GW4 to GW12 where he completed 90mins in all but one match (where he scored a brace)
•Laca has been eased back from injury and played very well off the bench so looks due for a start
•Stats are very, very similar between the two. The main differences are that Laca is averaging 5.1 penalty touches per app where as Auba is averaging 2.6. And in terms of conversion rate Laca is scoring 22.6% of his shots where as Auba is converting 30.3%.
•Overall, I see more value in Laca considering price.

It may be best to wait for pressers to see if we get any hints but I'll likely be doing Arnie Laca.

[Nabs Kebabs]

yes, welcome on board NK

Cheers AR!

[Joccki_10]

Hi Nabs, welcome to FISO and good luck with getting into the top 1k.

I’ve got a question for you since you were actually planning on doing Wilson Aubameyang/Lacazette this week. If Arnautović hadn’t been injured, would you have still pulled that one through?

My front three at the moment are Aubameyang, Wilson and Success and I’m seriously considering Wilson Lacazette funded by Mahrez Snodgrass (of which I think is a good funding transfer in itself). It seems that a lot of managers are now bringing in Wilson and I do think he still represents very good value. Though with LIV, wol, BRI, tot, mun being his next five fixtures I think this could be a perfect opportunity to get ahead of the pack and get rid now while everyone else is bringing him in.

The worst that could happen is probably that you miss a hat-trick against Brighton and need to get him back for £0.4 more than you sold him for?

[Nabs Kebabs]

Hi Nabs, welcome to FISO and good luck with getting into the top 1k.

I’ve got a question for you since you were actually planning on doing Wilson Aubameyang/Lacazette this week. If Arnautović hadn’t been injured, would you have still pulled that one through?

My front three at the moment are Aubameyang, Wilson and Success and I’m seriously considering Wilson Lacazette funded by Mahrez Snodgrass (of which I think is a good funding transfer in itself). It seems that a lot of managers are now bringing in Wilson and I do think he still represents very good value. Though with LIV, wol, BRI, tot, mun being his next five fixtures I think this could be a perfect opportunity to get ahead of the pack and get rid now while everyone else is bringing him in.

The worst that could happen is probably that you miss a hat-trick against Brighton and need to get him back for £0.4 more than you sold him for?

Thanks for the welcome

Yeah, I would likely be going through with the move if Arnie was fit. If you plan on captaining Lacazette this week, then I think the move could be worth it. Since you already have Aubameyang, it's actually a pretty hard decision in your case. So I would only seriously consider it, if you want to captain Laca over Auba this week.
And regarding Wilson, even if he scores a hat trick against Brighton, my advice would be to hold firm and stick to the plan. There's no point bringing him straight back in when his next 2 would be away to Tottenham and United.

[Ruth_NZ]

I should just mention that captaincy is a big deal for NK, he plans it and prioritises having the captains he wants more than most do. He didn't mention it in the first post but you'll get that kind of answer - only if you want to captain the player - pretty often from him.

[raoul]

Welcome NK and I like your first post in here, good way to set out your stall.

Wilson is in a class of his own. Watch the fixtures I was told, then watched as he scored against the big boys. He looks like a Vardy (of old...) to me, capable of scoring against anyone. And form over fixtures, as I hear regularly.

Good luck to you, and I look forward to following your fortunes (as long as they are not as good as mine, obviously).

[Nabs Kebabs]

I should just mention that captaincy is a big deal for NK, he plans it and prioritises having the captains he wants more than most do. He didn't mention it in the first post but you'll get that kind of answer - only if you want to captain the player - pretty often from him.

This guy clearly knows me too well

I may do an update of my initial post about philosophy soon where something about captains will be included.

[Nabs Kebabs]

Welcome NK and I like your first post in here, good way to set out your stall.

Wilson is in a class of his own. Watch the fixtures I was told, then watched as he scored against the big boys. He looks like a Vardy (of old...) to me, capable of scoring against anyone. And form over fixtures, as I hear regularly.

Good luck to you, and I look forward to following your fortunes (as long as they are not as good as mine, obviously).

Thankyou raoul!

Regarding Wilson, I'm not sure he's quite in the Vardy category yet. But yes, he has been exceptional value this season.

Regarding form over fixtures, I'm thinking about actually putting something in my original post about the contrary: fixtures>form. Form is temporary, but class is permanent is a well known phrase but never used in fpl. I do believe that fixtures largely dictate form. In the case of Wilson, the main issue is due to the value he represents, is it worth selling? I'm not entirely sure but I would be confident in saying that his returns won't be as good in the next 5 games as they have been overall so far this season.

[Nabs Kebabs]

GW16 PREVIEW:

I've gone through with the Arnie Laca transfer which sees me line up like this:

GW16:

Ryan
Alonso Van Dijk Bellerin Doherty
Hazard Martial Richarlison
Kane(vc) Lacazette(c) Wilson

Button Paterson Wan-Bissaka Hojbjerg

3.0m ITB

If Martial isn't fit (or anyone else doesn't play for that matter), Paterson at home to will be a good sub in at home to Southampton.

[raoul]

Welcome NK and I like your first post in here, good way to set out your stall.

Wilson is in a class of his own. Watch the fixtures I was told, then watched as he scored against the big boys. He looks like a Vardy (of old...) to me, capable of scoring against anyone. And form over fixtures, as I hear regularly.

Good luck to you, and I look forward to following your fortunes (as long as they are not as good as mine, obviously).

Thankyou raoul!

Regarding Wilson, I'm not sure he's quite in the Vardy category yet. But yes, he has been exceptional value this season.

Regarding form over fixtures, I'm thinking about actually putting something in my original post about the contrary: fixtures>form. Form is temporary, but class is permanent is a well known phrase but never used in fpl. I do believe that fixtures largely dictate form. In the case of Wilson, the main issue is due to the value he represents, is it worth selling? I'm not entirely sure but I would be confident in saying that his returns won't be as good in the next 5 games as they have been overall so far this season.

Agree entirely that class and form are two different things. However, players are humans not machines (except Harry Kane?) and to varying degrees it gets into their heads. Wilson got an England call up (and then scored). His tricky fixture run was noted a few weeks back yet whilst Bournemouth lost four in a row, Wilson scored in both Manchester games. Fixtures it seems are an issue for Bournemouth. Does not mean they are necessarily an issue for every Bournemouth player.

Wolves on the other hand ... lose to Cardiff and Huddersfield but have avoided defeat against Chelsea, Arsenal, Man U, Man C. Jimenez has 4 of his 5 best points games against Chelsea, Spurs, Everton, Arsenal. His 2pts (or less) have mostly been against weaker teams in good looking fixtures.

Glenn Murray is a good bet in home games but not away games. Salah gets points against weaker teams but not the top 6.

Hazard is a streak player (I read this from others early in the season, and it seems to have played out that way so far). On fire he will score against anyone.

Lukaku and Morata are not suddenly bad players. But they have lost confidence. One needs a new manager and the other a new country to play in.

It varies, that's my point.

[Nabs Kebabs]

Welcome NK and I like your first post in here, good way to set out your stall.

Wilson is in a class of his own. Watch the fixtures I was told, then watched as he scored against the big boys. He looks like a Vardy (of old...) to me, capable of scoring against anyone. And form over fixtures, as I hear regularly.

Good luck to you, and I look forward to following your fortunes (as long as they are not as good as mine, obviously).

Thankyou raoul!

Regarding Wilson, I'm not sure he's quite in the Vardy category yet. But yes, he has been exceptional value this season.

Regarding form over fixtures, I'm thinking about actually putting something in my original post about the contrary: fixtures>form. Form is temporary, but class is permanent is a well known phrase but never used in fpl. I do believe that fixtures largely dictate form. In the case of Wilson, the main issue is due to the value he represents, is it worth selling? I'm not entirely sure but I would be confident in saying that his returns won't be as good in the next 5 games as they have been overall so far this season.

Agree entirely that class and form are two different things. However, players are humans not machines (except Harry Kane?) and to varying degrees it gets into their heads. Wilson got an England call up (and then scored). His tricky fixture run was noted a few weeks back yet whilst Bournemouth lost four in a row, Wilson scored in both Manchester games. Fixtures it seems are an issue for Bournemouth. Does not mean they are necessarily an issue for every Bournemouth player.

Wolves on the other hand ... lose to Cardiff and Huddersfield but have avoided defeat against Chelsea, Arsenal, Man U, Man C. Jimenez has 4 of his 5 best points games against Chelsea, Spurs, Everton, Arsenal. His 2pts (or less) have mostly been against weaker teams in good looking fixtures.

Glenn Murray is a good bet in home games but not away games. Salah gets points against weaker teams but not the top 6.

Hazard is a streak player (I read this from others early in the season, and it seems to have played out that way so far). On fire he will score against anyone.

Lukaku and Morata are not suddenly bad players. But they have lost confidence. One needs a new manager and the other a new country to play in.

It varies, that's my point.

Yeah I do agree that overall is is very variable, but I'm still more in the camp of form over fixtures rather than vice versa as you said in your initial post.

[Nabs Kebabs]

Regarding my team selection for the week, I'm actually strongly considering playing Paterson as I think he has a good chance of scoring against Southampton at home. Thinking of benching Alonso or Wilson.

It's hard to see Alonso keeping a CS. i have a feeling that Chelsea are gonna get their asses handed to them actually. Their defence is a bit shaky and the pace of Sterling, Sane and Jesus will be too much. Also, Alonso will struggle to get up the pitch as he usually does due to City's high press and ability to keep the ball.

Wilson is playing against one of the best defences in the league this season and I don't think he's on pens with King in the side. Even if he does score, it's hard to see him getting many bonus point as you'd expect Liverpool to win and their players to dominate the BPS.

I'd love to hear the opinion of others on what to do with my benching dilemma.

Cheers

[No Way Jose]

I’d have to agree on Paterson vs Alonso. Alonso has a knack of burning us but I try to play the odds and see Paterson having a higher points potential and projected points this week

Also, welcome to Fiso!

[dod]

Personally I'd bench Alonso. MCI may be missing Kun but they still have more than enough firepower. CHE have been fortunate to have collected as many CSs as they have and now teams realise that they can neutralise Sarriball by man-marking Jorginho I expect Alonso's attacking returns to dry up. LIV have looked surprisingly vulnerable in their last 2 matches and Paterson has SOU. It's a close decision but Alonso seems to me to have both a lower points floor and ceiling than the other two.

[Nabs Kebabs]

Personally I'd bench Alonso. MCI may be missing Kun but they still have more than enough firepower. CHE have been fortunate to have collected as many CSs as they have and now teams realise that they can neutralise Sarriball by man-marking Jorginho I expect Alonso's attacking returns to dry up. LIV have looked surprisingly vulnerable in their last 2 matches and Paterson has SOU. It's a close decision but Alonso seems to me to have both a lower points floor and ceiling than the other two.

I’d have to agree on Paterson vs Alonso. Alonso has a knack of burning us but I try to play the odds and see Paterson having a higher points potential and projected points this week

Also, welcome to Fiso!

Thanks guys, exactly my thoughts and I have made the change! Will be lining up like this then:

Ryan
VVD Bellerin Doherty
Hazard Martial Richarlison Paterson
Kane(vc) Lacazette(c) Wilson

Button Alonso AWB Hojbjerg

[No Way Jose]

With martial in your side it might not matter tbf

[Joccki_10]

Wilson not in the squad. Should have taken the hit for Lacazette.

[Nabs Kebabs]

GW 16 REVIEW

The move for Lacazette really backfired. He had a perfectly good goal disallowed in the first half only to then be hauled off for 1pt at the break, giving me my second captain blank of the season, which also happened to be my second captain blank in the space of 4 GW's. With no Salah or Felipe Anderson in my team, it was always going to be a red arrow, the question was just how much would I drop. It wasn't too bad though, 57 points saw my OR drop to 4,699.

Looking ahead my team looks like this:

Ryan
Alonso VVD Bellerin Doherty AWB
Hazard Richarlison
Kane Lacazette Wilson

Button Martial Paterson Hojbjerg

With 3.0m ITB, there's quite a lot of options. My inital thoughts are to hold Lacazette for 2 more GW's due to great fixtures. However, biting the bullet and cutting the losses is also an option and I could transfer him to Auba, as I probably should have done last GW. I may have tried to be a bit too clever and got unlucky aswell.
Martial is someone I am losing patience with. But he does have good fixtures after this week. In terms of possibly replacing him, I was considering a Spurs mid but I don't feel comfortable going for any of them as I feel like they are very rotation prone. So my main candidates to replace him would be Sane, Felipe Anderson and Pereyra.

Would definitely be interested to hear what other people would do in my situation. I'll be waiting till Friday or Saturday to make the transfers due to all the European fixtures this week so am in no rush to make a move.