Dod's Blog

[Pirlo's Beard]

Son is great of course, but off to the Asian Cup in mid-January but the major obstacle to bringing him in is the fact that I already own him

You could sell him and bring him back in again!

Really, no need to thank me. I like to share my genius around.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Son is great of course, but off to the Asian Cup in mid-January but the major obstacle to bringing him in is the fact that I already own him

You could sell him and bring him back in again!

Really, no need to thank me. I like to share my genius around.

Stunning suggestion
Why did no-one else think of that?

[Nabs Kebabs]

Son has been an excellent selection, nice one.

[dod]

Son has been an excellent selection, nice one.

Thanks. I'm really surprised more managers don't own him. There is the rotation issue of course but when fully fit he is clearly first choice. I suppose some were put off by the Asian Cup coming up but I think that was overthinking it. People will be on MNU mids now so he'll still be a nice differential for the next 4 games.

[dod]

GW18 Review & GW19 Preview

I'll keep the GW18 review short as we are all pressed for time. 61pts (-4), Sterling captain fail, g'wan my Son, smallest of green arrows, meh ...

So this is my line-up going in to GW19:

Fabianski (sou)

Mina (bur) Robertson (NEW) AWB (CAR)

Sterling (lei) Sane (lei) Son (VC) (BOU) Hazard (wat) Anderson (sou)

Kane (C) (BOU) Ings (WHU)

Bench: Hamer (mun) Kolasinac (bha) Kamara (WOL) Schindler (mun)

0.1m ITB OR = 12942 TV = 105.1m SV = 103.6m

I have already made 2 transfers this GW. Wilson Ings and Aubameyang Kane (-4). I considered Rashford but I think I need to see how MUN set up once Lukaku is back in the team. Ings looks like he is going to be essential at SOU.

Switching to Kane from Aubameyang for a hit could be inspired or a disaster. I had reservations about Auba's next 2 fixtures but come GW21 I will probably want him back again. By then I should know whether or not I want to keep Sterling. I think I may want Kane long term however. This is the first time this season he has been in my squad. Initially this was because his price was hard to justify and his form was poor. The first objection still applies; the second however is no longer an issue.

Kane is finally beginning to look like the player he was before last season's injury. Frankly, since then, he's been a shadow of his former self. Yes I know he won the Golden Boot at the World Cup but he was mediocre in that tournament and ever since compared to his previous standards. It's an eye test thing. First of all he recovered his pace, then he got his vision back, and now he seems to be getting his confidence back as well. When all 3 of those factors are in place he's nigh on essential once you consider Spurs' kind fixture run. Just as important is the fact that Spurs as a team are getting back into form. This allows Kane to play further forward than he does when the team isn't creating chances for him. The result against Barcelona was a huge confidence boost for the entire squad.

This will probably be a make or break decision for my FPL season. If this is a false dawn I'm going to lose a lot of ground. Aubameyang is a hard player to remove from my squad. I bought him at 10.9m and he is now 11.5m. He is a proven quality player who is in great form and has been unlucky not to have returned far more FPL pts in recent GWs so taking him out for a hit is not a decision I have made lightly.

Having said all that I am still not sure if I will captain Kane over Son this GW. I am not even sure if Spurs will overwhelm BOU if, as Ruth NZ suggests, they park the bus. I do know however that I will be far less annoyed with myself if I make a bold move and fail than if I don't and I am proved right.

[Nabs Kebabs]

I considered Ings for Wilson but after West Ham at home, he's got City then Chelsea and Leicester both away. That was enough to put me off him. And I think my RMT blog has covered Kane and and Auba enough I think having both is ideal.

Merry christmas and good luck

[dod]

I considered Ings for Wilson but after West Ham at home, he's got City then Chelsea and Leicester both away. That was enough to put me off him. And I think my RMT blog has covered Kane and and Auba enough I think having both is ideal.

Merry christmas and good luck

Merry Xmas to you too mate.

[shmiro]

What’s your reasoning for going WB over Kola?


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[Joccki_10]

What’s your reasoning for going WB over Kola?

Doesn’t surprise me. Mina over Kolašinac on the other hand...

[skip]

Thanks Dod, very compelling arguments for getting Kane in for the next 8-10 games. I'm going to wait until Son heads to Asia before doing anything, but if Kane show's the same form as against Everton it will be hard to ignore him

[dod]

What’s your reasoning for going WB over Kola?


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ARS have conceded 15 goals away. BHA have scored in every home premiership game this season.

CRY have the 3rd best home defensive record (8 goals conceded). CAR have the worst away attacking record (5 goals scored).

[dod]

What’s your reasoning for going WB over Kola?

Doesn’t surprise me. Mina over Kolašinac on the other hand...

Yep. That is the real decision. I've gone with Mina both because I think he has a slightly better chance of a CS but also because BUR are 2nd only to NEW for the number of headed goal attempts conceded. I also think that after the Spurs hammering EVE may be more defensively minded this GW. It probably won't matter anyway as one of my players is likely to be rested.

[dod]

Thanks Dod, very compelling arguments for getting Kane in for the next 8-10 games. I'm going to wait until Son heads to Asia before doing anything, but if Kane show's the same form as against Everton it will be hard to ignore him

Congrats on your stellar GW18 .

[Jameselaprendi]

Me again.

Having been essentially identical lineups and identical scores, we’ve faced similar (identical) decisions and made some different calls. I won’t recount it all but I have mulled over almost everything you’ve described - going back a few weeks even.

Our key differences now are:

Hazard, Sterling, Ings
vs
Aubam, Martial, Alonso

I’d rather have your 3 season long but I’m happy enough with my 3 in medium term (e.g. 5 games). I just felt I’d miss Auba in 2 weeks time and I’ve bought into the Man U resurgence (and fixtures). I’m also happy to wait pick up Ings at a later date (after some tough fixtures / see if he stays fit), and also ready to give up Sterling. Don’t like carrying expensive off-form players with iffy fixtures. Even if that’s a highly dubious diagnosis.

Really wish I had Hazard. I would’ve have had him (and Ings) instead of Aubameyang if it wasn’t an extra transfer this week. Feel like I might regret not being bold. And/or ditching Sterling.

It does all feel a bit of a lottery of regret at the moment.

I’m sure we will both end up regretting not having Salah.

[dod]

Me again.

Having been essentially identical lineups and identical scores, we’ve faced similar (identical) decisions and made some different calls. I won’t recount it all but I have mulled over almost everything you’ve described - going back a few weeks even.

Our key differences now are:

Hazard, Sterling, Ings
vs
Aubam, Martial, Alonso

I’d rather have your 3 season long but I’m happy enough with my 3 in medium term (e.g. 5 games). I just felt I’d miss Auba in 2 weeks time and I’ve bought into the Man U resurgence (and fixtures). I’m also happy to wait pick up Ings at a later date (after some tough fixtures / see if he stays fit), and also ready to give up Sterling. Don’t like carrying expensive off-form players with iffy fixtures. Even if that’s a highly dubious diagnosis.

Really wish I had Hazard. I would’ve have had him (and Ings) instead of Aubameyang if it wasn’t an extra transfer this week. Feel like I might regret not being bold. And/or ditching Sterling.

It does all feel a bit of a lottery of regret at the moment.

I’m sure we will both end up regretting not having Salah.

You are winning the battle at the moment. I am still undecided whether to get Aubameyang back in GW21 or to invest in the MUN attack. I am also keeping an eye on Alonso.

I feel I have moved too far in the direction of picking players for their current fixture run rather than as long term holds. Bringing in Kane, Ings and Hazard is an attempt to correct that trend. These 3 are very much players I feel I can play every GW rather than ones that rely on good fixtures. I do not feel that way about Aubameyang who with the exception of the home match vs. Spurs is a bit of a flat pitch bully. My worry is that there are few flatter pitches than FUL, whm and CAR in GWs 21, 22 & 24.

[Joccki_10]

Mina with the goal!

[dod]

Mina with the goal!

With a header .

[Joccki_10]

What are your thoughts about Toby? Do you reckon he’s going to play every PL game or do you think he’s going to be rested in one of the next two?

[dod]

What are your thoughts about Toby? Do you reckon he’s going to play every PL game or do you think he’s going to be rested in one of the next two?

Being rested is the least of the Alderweireld's owner's concerns .Toby hasn't signed a new contract yet and probably won't. He is basically persona non grata and was being frozen out until Sanchez, Vertonghen, Foyth, Dier and Davies picked up injuries. That's everybody who can play CB at Spurs. If he signed a new contract then he'd still be a rotation risk but if he doesn't then either expect him to be sold this window or frozen out again once others are fit.

[Ruth_NZ]

You know that Spurs have exercised a 12-month extension for Toby? He is now contracted to 2020 but with a 25m release fee in the summer.

[Joccki_10]

You know that Spurs have exercised a 12-month extension for Toby? He is now contracted to 2020 but with a 25m release fee in the summer.

Yeah, this is what happened as far as I know?

[dod]

You know that Spurs have exercised a 12-month extension for Toby? He is now contracted to 2020 but with a 25m release fee in the summer.

Yep. He's also had an offer on the table for the last 18 months. Poch had to beg Levy to give Toby the deal he wanted and when Levy caved Toby moved the goalposts and demanded more. Everyone was very pissed off with Toby who seems to have burned his bridges. Levy won't sell him unless he gets the fee he wants but that doesn't mean that Poch will play him unless he has to.

We were trying to do a deal with MUN in the summer with Martial coming the other way. Maureen was up for it but the MUN board vetoed selling Martial to us under any circumstances. The deal on the table from Spurs was a good one so his wages will not be cheap. Of course he can now force a deal for £25m in the summer but Levy will demand it all up front and with the massive wages and no interest from Spain it wouldn't surprise me if he can't find a club willing to meet his demands. The general consensus is that he's been badly advised and screwed up royally.

Just about anything could happen. If he stays past the winter window I think he'll be making a lot more trips to the likes of Rochdale in the FA Cup than premiership appearances but that's just my opinion.

The only Spurs defenders I'd consider would be KWP and Foyth. Everybody else is too expensive for a far from watertight defence and not great attacking threat. Poch loves Foyth and he is 1m cheaper than Toby. I think there are better options elsewhere at that price though. KWP I may go for in the New Year. He may never get another game but if he does he is pure gold FPL-wise. At 4.2m I can play him every week and watch him get auto-subbed out without it hurting too much .

[Smurphy Paw]

KWP? Talking of chasing bandwagons!!

(I’m not too proud to copy though!)

[Pirlo's Beard]

Yeah, surely it's back to the Aurier/Trippier rotation once Aurier is fully fit and KWP goes back to occasional cup appearances alongside Toby?

Better ways of spending £4.2m IMO (Bennett, Kiko Femenía, even Bednarek if he keeps his place).

[dod]

GW19 Review

GW19 wasn't the disaster it was looking like at one stage .

As at 4am I couldn't choose between Son and Kane for the captaincy I decided that this was a decision where my philosophy of maximising volatility would be the tiebreaker so Son it was. I then bought Son's goals on my spread betting account and went to bed. It wasn't until Mina scored at 15:02 the next day that I looked at my FPL account and saw that I had forgotten to switch the captaincy from Kane to Son .

Don't worry ... this isn't some tedious bad beat story . The truth is I was fine with it. Spurs had yet to score and the decision was pretty much a flip anyway. No big deal .

Of course 21 minutes later Son scored the first of his brace against BOU and it made me think "What if I didn't know that Mina scored and I was just now checking my FPL account? What would my mood have been like? Would I be cursing my luck?"

Probably ... but how does that make any sense? Because Mina scored I realised I had made the mistake of not changing my captain and I wasn't bothered, but if I hadn't noticed until after Son had scored I would have been less phlegmatic about the situation. Yet the exact same events have happened . The only difference is when I became aware of them.

The same thing happens when you start the GW well and then fizzle out. You feel disappointed even though you may have had a decent overall haul. Reverse the situation and start poorly but rescue a bad situation (as I did this GW with my last 2 players (Hazard and F.Anderson) reaping 30 pts) and you feel elated. Both mindsets have their dangers; in the former you may rage transfer, and in the latter you may sit on your hands when action is needed.

Kipling gives the best advice:
"If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same"

So back to my short GW19 review. Of the outfield players only Ings and the City boys failed to deliver a return. I managed 86(-4) pts and a GW rank of 240k which is acceptable. A small green arrow sees me rise to 10059 OR and for some reason I'm no longer considering taking an 8 pt hit for GW20 .

[dod]

GW20 Preview

Fabianski (bur)

Mina (bha) Robertson (ARS) Schindler (ful)

Hazard (cry) Son (WOL) Sane (C)(sou) Pogba (BOU) F.Anderson (VC)(bur)

Kane (WOL) Ings (MCI)

Bench: Hamer (ful) Kamara (HUD) Kolasinac (liv) AWB (CHE)

0FT 3.5m ITB Total Pts = 1211 OR = 10059 TV = 105.5m SV = 103.8m

My transfer this GW was Sterling Pogba. Despite appearances this has more to do with flexibility than anything else. Once I had committed to bringing Kane in my options for future transfers became very limited. One of the big hitters had to go to free up funds and Raheem was the obvious candidate. Pogba coming in was less about chasing last week's points but rather getting a nailed player from a team with good fixtures and a new more attacking style of play under OGS. Martial, Rashford, Lingard, or even Sanchez or Lukaku could be the key player to own but I simply don't know yet so I've parked some money in Pogba who should tick over nicely as a 'set and forget' allowing me to take my risks elsewhere.

Choosing my bench wasn't straightforward. In the end I went with playing Mina, Schindler, and Ings, pretty much on the basis of their lower ownership compared to their alternatives. Once again with close decisions I've decided to maximise volatility . As they say in poker - "Scared money is dead money" .

The captaincy decision was a nightmare this GW. I considered and rejected Pogba (BOU aren't as bad defensively as their recent results suggest), Son & Kane (same reason as for Pogba), F.Anderson (so nearly as he has already hauled against BUR in the reverse fixture), and Hazard (afraid he will be moved to the left wing in Pedro's absence and neutralised by the 'destroyer of left-wingers' AWB.

In the end however I put the armband on Sane . This may appear a crazy choice given MCI's poor form and Pep roulette and the possibility that he could be playing as a left back . I do have my reason's however. Firstly, Sane already has a goal and two assists against the Saints in the reverse fixture this season. Obviously that was when Hughes managed SOU and things are very different now but Sane's confidence should be high given their previous meeting. The second is that I watched the match against WHM and SOU look absolutely knackered . Apparently Hassenhutl has been working them very hard on the training pitch and with fixture congestion it looks like it may have caught up with them and their players are running on fumes. SOU have had a days less rest than MCI and have a far thinner squad. Good luck trying a high press against MCI with tired players. All the captaincy options this GW seem to have pros and cons. Sane for me has the biggest upside and is *cough* the most volatile option .

[Joccki_10]

We seem to have only four differences in our first eleven: Mina, Sané (C), Anderson and Ings vs Rüdiger, Salah (C), Richarlison and Kamara/orSuccess.

Good luck. I’ll be attending your club’s game today.

[Pirlo's Beard]

Kipling gives the best advice:
"If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same"

"England will be playing four, four, f*cking, two."

[dod]

We seem to have only four differences in our first eleven: Mina, Sané (C), Anderson and Ings vs Rüdiger, Salah (C), Richarlison and Kamara/orSuccess.

Good luck. I’ll be attending your club’s game today.

I think most managers would prefer your line-up. I'm not sure that I wouldn't be one of them .

Good luck (except for the game of course ).

[FranckKessie]

In the end however I put the armband on Sane . This may appear a crazy choice given MCI's poor form and Pep roulette and the possibility that he could be playing as a left back . I do have my reason's however. Firstly, Sane already has a goal and two assists against the Saints in the reverse fixture this season. Obviously that was when Hughes managed SOU and things are very different now but Sane's confidence should be high given their previous meeting. The second is that I watched the match against WHM and SOU look absolutely knackered . Apparently Hassenhutl has been working them very hard on the training pitch and with fixture congestion it looks like it may have caught up with them and their players are running on fumes. SOU have had a days less rest than MCI and have a far thinner squad. Good luck trying a high press against MCI with tired players. All the captaincy options this GW seem to have pros and cons. Sane for me has the biggest upside and is *cough* the most volatile option .

I hope you will prosper from this decision! I can only agree on the fact that SOU looked completely drained of energy vs WHU, frustratingly they still managed to put one in, so Sane was also one I considered going with. It will be interesting to see if Pep goes with Sterling and Sane once again, I personally think he will.