Raoul's RMT

[raoul]

Only if you think Palace will keep a clean sheet rather than Kane bag a brace and Huddersfield nick a goal or three like last week!

Every decision is about a punt. Home to Huddersfield is hardly unreasonable. And unlike WHU Palace can be hard to score against.

My OR is not great and I need a boost. So...

[raoul]

With an OR below 300k, and 5th in my work ML and some distance to catch up, I feel the need for an element of punt.

My FH32 plan a of now:

DDG
block CP defence
Sterling, Pogba, Hazard, BSilva
Aguero (c), Rashford, Jimenez

This leaves money itb and at present I have Azpilcueta as well so could hold back and play just 2xCP at the back with AWB as 1st sub perhaps.

Feels like I have gone round in circles so am awaiting pressers for any injury news.

One question I am interested to ask - are those who go pretty template this week in line to rise much if the template does well? I imagine a lot of managers will have similar teams this week, having either built towards this DGW or using a FH.

[Mr Clarinet]

One question I am interested to ask - are those who go pretty template this week in line to rise much if the template does well? I imagine a lot of managers will have similar teams this week, having either built towards this DGW or using a FH.

I imagine that, as ever, this will depend to a large extent on the relative performances of the likely GW captain choices. If just one of them among the template options absolutely smashes it, and he's your chosen captain, a nice green arrow will be bestowed upon you.



Edit: Sorry, very boring answer. You already knew that.

[Smurphy Paw]

There are only 129k active free hits so far so template isn’t template, if you know what I mean
Posting the list in the Keeper in a moment

[Mr Clarinet]

There are only 129k active free hits so far so template isn’t template, if you know what I mean
Posting the list in the Keeper in a moment

So, yes, those figures you posted are encouraging for template FH-ers, even if (as Raoul pointed out above) some people will have arrived at the same template choices via the No Chip route.

[raoul]

Final line up.

Kepa
PvA, Schlupp, Jonny
Sterling, Hazard, Pogba, B Silva
Aguero (c), Higuain, Rashford

Bednarek first sub.

Several 11.20 changes and another at 11.29 after hearing Tomkins not playing. If he and Jimenez now play I will be very upset...

[From4corners]

Nice start so far for you.

[Sutter Kane]

Yes you're having a monster week. Tomkins indeed did play and get a clean sheet but in the grand scheme of things Jimenez didn't and a few points here or there is not going to decide the GW success. A Higuaín goal tomorrow would put the icing on the cake.

[raoul]

57 so far and Kepa, Hazard and Higuain to come in the first round of fixtures. So yes a decent start. The failure of MU to keep a CS is pleasing...for now. Jimenez to Higuain necessitated DDG to Kepa as part of the financing so if Chelsea keep a CS it will look even better.

I'm certainly not complaining.

[Owsler]

B Silva was a great pick, congrats. Fans (well, Twitter fans) seemed really unhappy with how D Silva played yesterday and were v. happy with B Silva, for obvious reasons. Went with him at the beginning of the season so a little annoyed I didn't think to go with him.

[raoul]

68pts so far, and up from 335k to 204k. My best OR since GW15. As of now, I think I have the best score in the Chips league for this week and have moved from 37th to 3rd.

Great start to the week.

Now, can Higuain flourish without Eden on the pitch? Can Liverpool stop Mr Kane and Mr Son?

If yes to both, a good week could become stellar.

[raoul]

and perhaps more importantly, my 49pt lead on Mrs R (who started in GW2) is now 96pt lead. She has Hazard (as captain!) and Kante on the bench this afternoon and had the misfortune to have Doherty, Jimenez and Lindelof so she is spitting feathers.

She does however have a hoard of all 4 chips for the final 6 GW and seems unlikely to need to use one in GW33. Big finish on the way...

[raoul]

GW33 and Beyond

So GW31 went ok-ish, and GW32 is going pretty well so far. GW33 was looking ok-ish, but not quite so good now. And then there is GW34 and beyond armed with just a TC chip.

GW33 lineup at present:
Boruc, (so no GK then...)
Pereira, Chilwell, TAA
Salah, Mane, Fraser, Felipe Anderson
Wilson, Vardy, Barnes
(subs Button, Rice, Doherty, Pogba)

As you will note, other than GK the above is lacking base price players. A common error by me this season.

So what would I like to have in place by GW35, that is achievable?

Good question.

There are only 3 or 4 of my current squad who I am keen to lose. But I have almost no doublers for GW34 and GW35. And no MU, TOT, CHE, ARS, MC. And no base line outfielders, suggesting money being wasted on the bench.

5 transfers for GW35, using 3 FT and 2 hits?

- Gunn in GW33
- Dunk, Duffy, Eriksen in GW34
- Auba in GW35

Thoughts? Am I missing a more cunning fix here?

[raoul]

I put together a hypothetical WC squad. Only 2 of my current squad got a look in, and neither made the final cut (Mane was close).

15 transfers, all of them needed by GW34 (or GW35 latest), is quite a few hits

So I need a priority list. Two in fact:

CURRENT PLAYERS TO GO

1. Button (not playing, and neither is my other GK probably, so I need a GK)
2. Anderson (expensive, demotivated, knock, no DGW)
3. Barnes of Burnley (about to hit poor fixtures, is my 1st sub as I have 7 other playing forwards so should be 4.3m slot, no DGW)
4. and 5. Pereira and Chilwell (too expensive given no DGW, and about to hit poor fixtures)
6. Rice (my D5, and too expensive for that bench slot … and no DGW)
7. Wilson (not convinced of Bournemouth's motivation, he shares points with King, not sure of his form, no DGW)


Salah not on that list. I think I am keeping him and hoping. Too many other fires to fight.

DESIRED

1. and 2. and 3. Ryan, Duffy and Dunk (DGW x 2, easily benched in a bad week, great VFM, something to play for, hoping they get knocked out of the Cup)
4. Kane (DGW, HUD at home, something to play for, decent chance he starts all games)
5. Eriksen (see Kane) … or possibly Son
6. Bednarek or Valery (cheap, DGW, motivated)
7. Rashford (DGW, motivated, in form)


so a GK, 3 DEF, 1 MID, 2 FWD in both lists. Straight swap. Simple.

At a cost of 4 hits, if I want them all by GW35....

And would leave me with 8 playing forwards with the cheapest at 6.1m.

And cannot afford it anyway.

So Eriksen becomes H-O. And it is affordable.

Ryan (Boruc)
TAA, Doherty, Duffy, Dunk, (Bednarek)
Salah, Mane, Pogba, Fraser (H-O)
Kane, Rashford, Vardy
(Fraser to sub in away games, or DGW, I suspect)

Too many changes? Keep Wilson, on grounds Rashford will get some rests because of Europe? Will BHA defenders play all 4 games in 2 weeks?

Not sure how far to push my GW33 squad to prepare it for GW34 and beyond...

[raoul]

So, 11 doublers do a decent job and get 73 in the first round of matches.

Let the doubles commence!

Jonny - rested
Rashford - ill/injured
Pogba - "played", if that's what you can call it
Aguero - injured

I hope the other 7 tonight manage a bit more than this. Wonder how many of Sterling, BSilva, Hazard, Higuaín will play?

[raoul]

GW32 Review and GW33 Preview

Ugh. GW32 petered out horribly, with a 97 after such a great start. Only 5 doubled, and thank the lord for Eden otherwise it would have been even worse.

Still, up 70k places to 264k so shouldn't grumble.

Except now the GW31 mob are back, and I only have a TC left, so I have to accept that the current squad has to have some stayers (in blue:

Boruc, Button
TAA, Doherty, Pereira, Chilwell, Rice
Salah, Mane, Fraser, Pogba, Anderson
Vardy, Wilson, Barnes

That leaves 7 potential moves. I have 3.9m itb.

Most moves are needed GW35 at the latest. GW32 has taught me not to expect too much from a DGW, so I am not going to go hit-crazy just to get doublers in, but with BHA having a double double and defenders and GK more likely to show up twice, I have to get some of that.

Currenty thinking:

GW33 - Button Kepa (although Gunn...)
GW34 - Rice, Anderson, Boruc Duffy, Son, Ryan (-8)
GW35 - Barnes, Pogba Jimenez, Jota

Given my lack of transfers, 2 GK seems a luxury so maybe Boruc stays and it is Pereira to Dunk for the second BHA.

GW35 will no doubt change based on Cup, injuries etc so not too bothered about that now, more worried about which Spurs players will get a day off against Huddersfield. Which I suppose depends on how the first leg of the CL QF goes.

Given my lack of chips, am quite liking having Salah. Those with a WC are surely not bringing him in, so if he comes out of his scoring funk it could be rather helpful. He is going to have to be captain for the rest of the season I think.

[raoul]

GW33 REVIEW

Ugh. It was actually going reasonably well after 5 of the 6 games with 49pts, a 70,000 march up the OR into the top 200k for the first time in a long time, and it was clear that a lot of managers were largely binning GW33 and focussing on GW34 and beyond.

Then Mr Hazard hauled, Chelsea kept a CS, and those who had free hit the week got their rewards in spades. I had planned for GW31 and 33 and so left Chelsea out. I had to use my GW33 transfer on replacing Boruc, otherwise (and with 3.9m itb) it could have been a 1 week punt on Hazard replacing Anderson. Hey ho.

To make matters worse, Mrs R did have Hazard. And captained him. And now goes into the final 5 weeks with all 4 chips left and only 43 pts behind me.

GW34

Armed with 1 free transfer and a TC chip...

Have brought in Ryan and Duffy. As I suspect many have.

Ryan (Gunn)
Duffy, TAA, Pereira, Chilwell (Doherty)
Salah (c), Mane, Pogba (Fraser, Anderson)
Vardy, Wilson, Barnes

Some decent fixtures in there, but Anderson, Fraser and Wilson can all easily go. Waiting on the CL to see if Spurs players are worth having and are fit. I suspect they will still be in it v MC and as such any Spurs player could be rested v HUD.

Tempted by Eriksen for a -4.

But also tempted to go Wilson to Murray and pray.

[raoul]

or Fraser to Propper…

Hmmm. Frees up funds, an easy bench sitter for the rest of the season, and 2 doubles.

More likely to get decent game time than Murray.

Hmmmmmmmmm.

[raoul]

Am TC on Duffy. Last chip. Those on WC can't so why not have a flutter...

[SirMattBugsby]

Am TC on Duffy. Last chip. Those on WC can't so why not have a flutter...

Fffix is indeed advising me to "consider using the chip". Hmm..

Sent from my Lenovo K33a42 using Tapatalk

[raoul]

Well avoiding my 3rd choice Vardy worked out...

[raoul]

And Son might get benched I thought, so...

[raoul]

Ryan (Gunn)
Duffy (TC), Chilwell, Pereira, TAA (Doherty)
Son, Salah, Mane, Pogba (Fraser)
Vardy, Barnes (Wilson)

Took a -8 to bring in Ryan, Duffy and Son for Boruc, Rice and Felipe. Don't like losing the 8 points but all 3 transfers look like they should pay back fairly quickly.

Especially if Brighton...

And the Chips are all gone.

[raoul]

Taking out Boruc and Felipe working well.

As is benching Fraser and Wilson.

Omg.

[raoul]

GW34 Review and GW35 Planning

Well that was a strange week:

- I left 2 players with a combined 31pts on the bench
- I tripled captained a 1pt player
- I finally ditched Felipe who kindly decided to finally score

Despite all that, I beat the weekly average.

But I got a nasty red arrow and now have no chips, and only 5 doublers, as well as Leicester defenders and a Burnley striker with poor fixtures approaching.

Gunn (Ryan)
Doherty, TAA, Duffy (Chilwell, Pereira)
Son, Pogba, Salah, Mane, Fraser
Wilson, Vardy (Barnes)

1.3m itb.

Thinking I should let tonight's CL games happen first. If MC go out then their players become safer picks.

If you had 1 TF, what would you do with the above?

[Sutter Kane]

Probably roll a transfer. Looking decent this week. Some Leicester players would have to go though next week. I'd have to get a City attacker in I think. Somehow.

[raoul]

Lessons From My First Season

1. BENCH

Stemania bench points = 138, me = 298.

2. GK

Linked to the first point. I cannot choose the correct GK when I have 2 of them. Set and forget. Double up for end of season bench boost.

3. PATIENCE

If I had left my GW1 team, used no chips at all, and let the auto-transfers do their work, I would be on 2028. I am actually on 1994 and used all my chips.

My starting XI in GW1 included VVD, Salah, Mane, Milivojevic, Richarlison, Aguero, Jimenez. A good core who I should have kept all season, benching for injury weeks or replacing with an intention to bring straight back when they returned.

4. HITS

I have taken 18. Stem has taken 7.

5. CHIPS

BB - save for a DGW late in the season. I wasted mine and cannot recall why I used it so early.
TC - Top 2 team defender in a DGW, or top forward home game against strugglers who leak (but beware of rotation risk, early substitution)
FH - the only chip I thought I used fairly well. Keep hold for a week where info is going to appear a bit late, or perhaps a BGW.
WC - I honestly do not have answers on this yet. But having it late on is very helpful. And using WC1 early to set things up nicely if starting pint went awry seems wise.

6. SQUAD STRUCTURE

I went for cheap defenders too often. CP or Wolves defenders as fillers around Liv/MC premiums, perhaps Chelsea if they continue to play the same guys week in week out.

And as noted above, too much value on the bench.


7. DON'T BLAME MYSELF FOR EVERYTHING

- I played for GW31 and 33 and it turned out to be a damp squib. No gains were available. Bournemouth's good fixture run meant nothing.
- I picked a decent starting squad
- I got unlucky with timings on Salah and Sterling ownership
- I was beating the current overall leader after GW3

Still 3 weeks left and hoping to get inside the top 250k now that most others have caught up in using their chips.

[raoul]

GW36 review

112 pts, with no chips played. If only I had stayed with the TC Salah plan and not done a TC on Duffy...

Anyway, up to 215k. A rise of 103k places!

If I can replicate that for the next 2 weeks I will be in the top 10k, which would be nice.

GW37/38

I have 2FT. Squad:

Gunn/Ryan
TAA, Laporte, Doherty, Duffy, Chilwell
Salah, Mane, Son, Pogba, Fraser
Wilson, Vardy, Barnes

Waiting to see what happens tonight, but I am thinking Chilwell, Duffy, Son, Barnes are the likely candidates to be changed.

Thoughts?

[dod]

Nice score for a chipless team last GW raoul .

I guess the question is who do you have your eye on to bring in?

Duffy and Chilwell both have very poor fixtures left but there aren't great options for defenders. Maybe Shaw? I'm not convinced by MUN myself even with their very easy run in.

I wouldn't get rid of Son when he is all but certain to play against a tragic BOU defence (he got 13 pts against them at the Lane), and then against EVE who are vulnerable on their travels. Son got 21 pts against EVE in the reverse fixture. Both these sides suit Son far better than sides who park the bus.

Barnes has a tasty home fixture against ARS in GW38. I might even be bringing in Wood for that one.

One not on your list I would consider moving out is Wilson. He's in great form away from home but has been poor at the Vitality. He hasn't got a return at home since the visit of HUD at the beginning of December and then faces a tricky trip to CPL who have are one of the most defensive teams playing at home.

[raoul]

Nice score for a chipless team last GW raoul .

I guess the question is who do you have your eye on to bring in?

Duffy and Chilwell both have very poor fixtures left but there aren't great options for defenders. Maybe Shaw? I'm not convinced by MUN myself even with their very easy run in.

I wouldn't get rid of Son when he is all but certain to play against a tragic BOU defence (he got 13 pts against them at the Lane), and then against EVE who are vulnerable on their travels. Son got 21 pts against EVE in the reverse fixture. Both these sides suit Son far better than sides who park the bus.

Barnes has a tasty home fixture against ARS in GW38. I might even be bringing in Wood for that one.

One not on your list I would consider moving out is Wilson. He's in great form away from home but has been poor at the Vitality. He hasn't got a return at home since the visit of HUD at the beginning of December and then faces a tricky trip to CPL who have are one of the most defensive teams playing at home.

interesting analysis and thanks.

Am thinking both Man U and Arsenal have CS opps this week, and Man U the week after as well, so yes Shaw is on my radar, in for Chilwell.

Will Son play against Bournemouth? I appreciate the point, but the Ajax game is now critical and if Son gets injured...

I guess my biggest problem is having 8 forwards, all of who I can argue should play!