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Raoul's RMT

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raoul
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Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

I have spent years trying to stop writing my thoughts on dozens of scraps of paper. Not just fantasy football. Everything. So I'm going to type it here and see if it helps clear the thinking process.

My first FPL season. Have played TFF since the start. Feel I know players reasonably well and have a good eye for those in form and out. But am learning FPL rules and tactics on the fly.

After yesterday am sitting around 200,000th. Am 3rd in my office league of 41 teams (How bad are we!). No chips used.

Will take a few posts to share my learnings (wish that really was a word) but here's my GW5 so far.

Was nervous yesterday. Jimenez and Zaha both potentially crocked. Coleman definitely out (although after Fraser yesterday am expecting a Seamus clean sheet and hat trick). Milivojevic not performing and a quiet rumour he might even get dropped. And I had Mo. And no Hazard.

Also looking at Lukaku, Vardy and Bournemouth front players and wanting some exposure.

In the end I couldn't warrant multiple hits so replaced Coleman and Salah with Hazard and Alonso for 4 point pain.

Good decision. Hazard has looked like a man who wants to play for fun recently. Salah looks frustrated somehow.

Haven't thought ahead to GW6 yet. Or explained my current squad or strategy. Will do so in stages later.

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raoul
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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

So ... the starting squad. Changed this a billion times but settled on this:

DDG / Fabs
VVD / AWB / Mendy / Coleman / Boly
Salah / Mane / Milivojevic / Stephens / Richarlison
Aguero / Zaha / Jimenez

Goalkeepers

Probably got confused here. Lack of experience. Assumed common sense meant a premium from a stingy defence and cheap safish back-up. Obviously DDG hasn't worked out and I switched to Cech a couple of weeks back as he seemed cheap and Arsenal fixtures looking good. Cue 2 goals conceded against "free scoring " Cardiff and yesterday clean sheet gone in 91st minute. Hmmm.

Fear now is Leno comes in. Let's see but transfer imminently I think. Probably should put Fabs in as he seems sure to see a lot of action.

Defence

Logic here was couple from Liverpool and Man City first. Virgil should start by default and nick some goals. Mendy very cheap and marauding forward. Considered TAA but in WC he couldn't cross for toffee.

Coleman has scored TFF points for me in previous years and seemed decent value given his attacking nature.

Looked at likely starters from weaker teams. AWB very cheap and gets forward. Boly ... one of few Wolves players I have seen. And cheap. And thought Wolves would do ok.

When Wolves failed to beat 10 men of Everton or Leicester and with MC next I transferred Boly out. Cue goal. Oops. Brought Bellerin in for same reason as Cech. Yet to pay me back.

Coleman just been replaced by Alonso. He was at risk of going. Injury did me a favour.

Midfield and Forwards ... later. After I stop celebrating Raul Jimenez making my afternoon.
Last edited by raoul on 17 Sep 2018, 09:13, edited 1 time in total.

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raoul
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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Midfield

Richarlison at that price seemed a no brainer. I expected a quick start like last year and with Everton having no big name centre forward he looked likely to get chances.

Worried about Man City rotation and assumed Liverpool safer in that respect. Plus a nice run of Liverpool games for a few weeks. So Salah and Mane in. Of course lack of world cup tiredness also a factor in not taking Hazard, Eriksen et al for now.

Milivojevic. Picked him without much thought. Which was stupid. Seemed safe. But thought would have said go for an attacking player. Obvious. I have Seri and Maddison in TFF. Why.....

Stephens a filler as I never expected to play 5 mids.

Forwards

Aguero. Kane and Lukaku surely to be rested. Firmino sharing points with Salah and Mane. Arsenal and Chelsea works in progress. So Kun made sense.

Zaha ... if Palace score it's probably him. Seemed better prospect than Arnie given West Ham look biggest work in progress of all. Have Mitrovic in TFF. Didn't consider him here and can't remember why!

Jimenez. Looked likely to start and Wolves don't sit back. Great price. And he is Raul which is the greatest name.

So that was my opening gambit. And did well for 2 weeks.

More soon...

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raoul
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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Learning Point ... Bench Management

My novice status is going to cause problems this season. Unavoidable. But I am determined to learn fast. Which brings me to my poor bench management especially in defence.

This past week I toyed with the idea of putting Zaha or Jimenez on the bench. Injury concerns with both. But I had a feeling Jimenez would score and felt more confident Zaha would play so all 3 front players played. Midfield of newly acquired Hazard plus Mane and Pedro meant at least 3 midfielders would start. So a maximum of 4 defenders. Someone has to sit out. AWB benched. My logic ... cheapest and away game.

In retrospect not a good way to decide. And contradictory. If Zaha gets the nod am I not saying Palace will be ok at Huddersfield? Of my other defenders Mendy and Alonso both nice home games and both racking up points so no brainers. VVD tough away game but fancied Liverpool to win with pressure from set plays rather than all out attack so if anything thought him more likely to score than his usual odds.

Bellerin. Arsenal playing a Newcastle team who can't score. And who concede a few. He has to start too.

So that's it. 10 outfield slots filled. So now it is about bench order...And for reasons I can't remember I had Milivojevic ahead of AWB. Mili has done nothing points wise whereas AWB has. And AWB looks more likely to assist than Mili. And Huddersfield don't look likely to score a hatful. In fact they don't look likely to fill a thimble let alone a hat. This game was screaming nil nil or close. If Zaha didn't play then goalless draw highly likely.

Anyway...I spent ages last week trying to decide what to do re Coleman. Single transfer for no hit and bring in a Bournemouth defender for their nice fixture run? Or get Hazard in for Salah and free funds for Alonso and take a 4 point hit (Which I did). Also looked at 3 transfers and Milner in for Mili plus considered WC. When I finalised that situation I felt like I had argued well both for what I did, And against other available options.

Bench choice ... 30 seconds.

Conclusion? Some decisions feel huge and eat up a lot of thinking time. Risk is other decisions feel unimportant and don't get the time they need.

Justify every option chosen. And ensure I can argue against the options not chosen.

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

319 pts (Will be 322 after Mendy sub pts tonight).

178,680th.

Feeling good about next week. Don't want to transfer until European games done. But at present am considering some options:

Aguero to Lukaku

Been concerned about Aguero for a week or two and if it hadn't been for a home fixture and other issues taking priority I could have done this last week. Partly rotation. But Lukaku looking good and will surely both start and score a lot. Also his low ownership...although I fear I am not the only person looking at this transfer this week.

Milivojevic to Milner

Milner seems central to much of what Liverpool do. I sense points galore. Nice fixture this week ... And adds to my bank balance for future improvements.

The Milner transfer looks less controversial. Or does it?

Could do both I guess.

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by No Way Jose »

I’d be wary of Milner but at 5.5 there’s not much skin in the game there

As a 2nd year rookie Milner seems like the type of player one of us would bring in only for him to end up being rotated and significantly losing relevance as an FPL player

The Aguero to Lukaku move could be a good one given the context and rotation season heating up

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by Stu255 »

I am starting to think that the deeper into the season we go the more Aguero will be spared PL minutes to save him for UCL.

Interestingly I think a big factor is how Liverpool perform in the PL. If MCI run away at top of the table then Aguero's PL minutes will shrink. If Liverpool continue their current form then Aguero is going to play more PL minutes.

Which leads me to think that Mane and Salah are almost certain to outperform Aguero for value over the course of the whole season. If Salah and Mane perform at par then Aguero will be prioritised for UCL. If Mane and Salah are on fire then Aguero will be stretched between UCL and PL.


All assuming that MCI are the stronger squad and more likely to contest top of table and go deep into UCL.

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

No Way Jose wrote: 17 Sep 2018, 12:28 I’d be wary of Milner but at 5.5 there’s not much skin in the game there

As a 2nd year rookie Milner seems like the type of player one of us would bring in only for him to end up being rotated and significantly losing relevance as an FPL player

The Aguero to Lukaku move could be a good one given the context and rotation season heating up
The way he is playing I reckon Milner is one of the first names on the teamsheet but yes he will need and get a rest. Whether that happens against Southampton I don't know.

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raoul
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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Stu255 wrote: 17 Sep 2018, 14:54 I am starting to think that the deeper into the season we go the more Aguero will be spared PL minutes to save him for UCL.

Interestingly I think a big factor is how Liverpool perform in the PL. If MCI run away at top of the table then Aguero's PL minutes will shrink. If Liverpool continue their current form then Aguero is going to play more PL minutes.

Which leads me to think that Mane and Salah are almost certain to outperform Aguero for value over the course of the whole season. If Salah and Mane perform at par then Aguero will be prioritised for UCL. If Mane and Salah are on fire then Aguero will be stretched between UCL and PL.


All assuming that MCI are the stronger squad and more likely to contest top of table and go deep into UCL.
Very sound point.

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raoul
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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Worried Lukaku price might rise ... haven't worked out yet when that happens ... So have taken plunge.

Lukaku in and Aguero out.

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raoul
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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

198947th.

322 points.

All chips intact.

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raoul
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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

WILDCARD USE

Have been doing some forward planning. Having brought in Hazard last week, probably for a fair while, I have made bringing Salah back in (should I want to, which at the moment I don't) an extremely difficult exercise. Looking ahead to fixtures, I can see why many are suggesting GW9 for a WC. That would of course allow me to create a solution where Salah can come back and I can keep a fair chunk of what I currently have, but if I want to avoid using the WC to achieve this then it would need a series of transfers starting this week to get to the same position. 6 transfers to be precise, which means taking some hits.

I doubt this is a path I will take, and it got me to thinking when would I plan for the WC if I don't use it in GW9?

Seems like an odd concept - and I know many believe it is best to use it early. I guess a bit like realising you have made the wrong career decision - ditch it after 6 weeks not 6 years. But imagine if in life you could have a wildcard, and make as many changes to your life as you want with no questions asked, no penalties...

Anyway, I digress.

Right now, I think we have a number of key unknowns that make a WC dangerous to use. Not all agree, but I have doubts over Salah, Kane, Arsenal in general, Son, Spurs in general, whether Man Utd are on the path to happiness or still at risk of further implosion, whether West Ham are relegation battle material or will sort themselves out, are Everton really pants, will Richarlison be good beyond October etc etc.

So I see Arsenal getting a lot of Home games soon thanks to Spurs getting the mirror image in Away games, but with doubts about both teams I am not sure whether this is something that can be exploited. Even when Spurs finally get their home game streak, will they actually be at "home"? Will Kane have his mojo back?

As a newbie on FPL I am constantly picking up useful insights from more experienced players. The feel I have got for some time is that most believe a defence-heavy selection seems to bear more fruit. But lately I sense there is a feeling that this year that might not be the case. If I am going to use the WC and almost totally rebuild, then I need to know my structure, and that means having quite a few of these questions answered, at least to some extent.

Salah (and at some point Kane) seem to have prices that mean the decision whether to have one (or both) of them will impact the remainder of the squad. They are not easy to bring in unless the squad is set up to allow it to be easy. And do i want to commit to a structure that allows such a move, when I am currently not convinced such a move will be a desirable option?

All in all, I reckon I can tweak my squad to a good place fairly easily using transfers. I think it is wisest to hold the WC for now and possibly beyond GW9 until/unless I have more answers.




-

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by Stu255 »

I think the structure is the big thing to decide.

There is a kind of barbell landscape with some very good very expensive players, some good cheap players and a bit of a wide gap in between.

At the high end we have the £10-13m and at the low end are the £4-6.5m.

From £7-10m there seems to be loads of land mines where players who are fantastic on paper but play at big clubs with unpredictable and never ending squad rotation systems. These rotation systems are secretive and designed to be impossible to read to make life tough for opposition managers. You will think you can second guess them... but you cannot. They exist to flummox.

It’s also worth pointing out that your captaincy is like a 12th player. So if you have Salah, then you really have 2x Salah’s. This is also why Salah and Kane have such high premiums attached to them.

If you have Salah for example, you want a VC with alternative easy fixtures. If I were to wild card, I would start with the cap, then the VC and fill in from there.

What I have also learnt is that this is really a game of knowledge and you just have to learn who the gems are.

The best team one week is not the best team the next week. Even if you knew what the best team that week was gonna be you can’t afford the changes to get it.

So you need to learn to be satisfied that your team doesn’t need to be the best team all the time, it just needs to be regularly good. If you chase being the best team every week you will probably do more harm than good.

My first season too, so still catching up.

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raoul
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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Stu255 wrote: 19 Sep 2018, 19:12 I think the structure is the big thing to decide.

There is a kind of barbell landscape with some very good very expensive players, some good cheap players and a bit of a wide gap in between.

At the high end we have the £10-13m and at the low end are the £4-6.5m.

From £7-10m there seems to be loads of land mines where players who are fantastic on paper but play at big clubs with unpredictable and never ending squad rotation systems. These rotation systems are secretive and designed to be impossible to read to make life tough for opposition managers. You will think you can second guess them... but you cannot. They exist to flummox.

It’s also worth pointing out that your captaincy is like a 12th player. So if you have Salah, then you really have 2x Salah’s. This is also why Salah and Kane have such high premiums attached to them.

If you have Salah for example, you want a VC with alternative easy fixtures. If I were to wild card, I would start with the cap, then the VC and fill in from there.

What I have also learnt is that this is really a game of knowledge and you just have to learn who the gems are.

The best team one week is not the best team the next week. Even if you knew what the best team that week was gonna be you can’t afford the changes to get it.

So you need to learn to be satisfied that your team doesn’t need to be the best team all the time, it just needs to be regularly good. If you chase being the best team every week you will probably do more harm than good.

My first season too, so still catching up.
Absolutely agree re structure.

It is clear that in terms of points per million, the defenders outdo the midfield who outdo the forwards - well, those at the top of the Pts per £ do anyway. I wonder whether this is skewed at the start of the season, where 1 CS rewards multiple players at once whereas a goal does not, and maybe the effect softens as the number of games increases (and defenders on weaker teams start to concede more goals)?

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

I basically have 30 mins to make a decision.

I have 8 players in my first 11 with home fixtures. None of the games are against the big 6. My other 3 starters are all Chelsea.

That suggests stick. It shouts don't twist. It screams put your phone down.

But.

I have Pedro. Am playing him. If he sits, I have Jimenez first sub in a tricky away game. Can live with that.

My other bench players are Stephens and Mendy. So if I have surprise omissions I could be in trouble but hopefully ok.

I used this week's transfer bringing in Lukaku for Aguero. Pre planned move as I think he'll rotate less if at all. Now MC have CL work to do even happier with my strategy. But any other changes this week mean hits.

Unless I WC.

My concerns ... 2 Arsenals at the back. Good fixtures ... But Arsenal are leaking goals. And Milivojevic in midfield has done nothing so far. And I could have Fraser, Richarlison, Maddison for Huddersfield at home etc, Milner.

Oh yes. And no Salah.

Maybe Richarlison and Fraser are better from GW7. Maybe Milner will rest today. And maybe Salah scores a haul...

If I don't WC now then at least that stays available but I am already looking ahead to Sunday night and thinking I missed a sensible opportunity to nail down a strong squad with an easy transfer at every slot (I would bring Maddison this week plus Milner and Fraser i think with Richarlison coming the following week).

Probably no Salah. But maybe.

Advice now very welcome.

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Raoul, just seen your comment on Ruth’s thread and skim read your post.
I’m hoping that you didn’t wildcard. Thirty minutes is seldom enough time to get the job done properly, but if you did, list or screenshot where you’ve got to so far and I’ll take a look

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by baganboy »

Don't please. It's an important chip. Your team is not in desperate need. And you don't have time.

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Thanks SP and BB. I amazed myself by sitting there at 11.27 and telling myself not to rush it through. Decided to stick. Too much undecided. One of the biggest issues was staring at a squad and having 13 players I dare not bench as well as having 0.5m itb.

It needed work.

To cover any pain I have a small wager on Fraser, Richarlison, Milner and others to score today :)

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by Smurphy Paw »

When you do, commit to it earlier in the week and get us involved

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Smurphy's Paw wrote: 22 Sep 2018, 14:44 When you do, commit to it earlier in the week and get us involved
Tbh I had plans all week just in case. But it wasn't really a serious consideration and there was both a Salah and a no Salah route. That was my biggest error I think. It resulted in too many possibilities.

Busy work week and the need to drive for 3 hours killed my preparation.

Let's let the weekend settle then I will share thoughts in a more refined manner. Hopefully.

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Smurphy's Paw wrote: 22 Sep 2018, 14:44 When you do, commit to it earlier in the week and get us involved
And thanks (to BB as well)!

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by baganboy »

Yes please. That's the great value of FISO. That's the value of RMT.
Really, your team is not nearly bad enough for you to have to rush into a last minute WC.

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

baganboy wrote: 22 Sep 2018, 17:14 Yes please. That's the great value of FISO. That's the value of RMT.
Really, your team is not nearly bad enough for you to have to rush into a last minute WC.
thanks BB. And when I saw Sakho's miss last night I thought of you...

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

OK, so for the record the WC that sat in front of me yesterday that I did not do would have had Maddison and Aguero. But also Lukaku, who I would still have captained. I would have had a GK clean sheet (both of my choices did). So yes I missed some points. But blanks from Milner and Fraser soften the blow a bit.

The key today is an Arsenal clean sheet. If somehow they can, then not only was the WC delay a sensible longer term decision given I was rushing, it will also mean I am probably no worse than even and possibly slightly ahead.

But I doubt they will tbh (and have a small wager to that effect, to further soften the blow - ahh the joys of hedging).

Off to class! (to teach hedging, amusingly enough :)

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Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by fred1266 »

raoul wrote: 23 Sep 2018, 09:27
baganboy wrote: 22 Sep 2018, 17:14 Yes please. That's the great value of FISO. That's the value of RMT.
Really, your team is not nearly bad enough for you to have to rush into a last minute WC.
thanks BB. And when I saw Sakho's miss last night I thought of you...
so did I

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Altogether 6 top 10Ks. 8 top 20Ks. 9 top 50Ks.

Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by baganboy »

raoul wrote: 23 Sep 2018, 09:32 But I doubt they will tbh (and have a small wager to that effect, to further soften the blow - ahh the joys of hedging).

Off to class! (to teach hedging, amusingly enough :)
:D hey that's amazing.

I thank my finance profs for helping that reluctant callow kid of yore to see the light.
Unknowingly they did my FPL career (and investments, and life per se) a world of good.
As you are for some kids.

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raoul
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Posts: 5031
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
FS Record: Tied for OR 1st worldwide in FPL in GW5 in 21/22 (only to then finish 1m), and ranked 1st in TFF late in season 21/22 (eventual finish 95th). Won an old game called Football Fantastic. Best Fanteam finish 117th and cashed £150. Best FPL finish 2.4K.

Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

baganboy wrote: 23 Sep 2018, 11:02
raoul wrote: 23 Sep 2018, 09:32 But I doubt they will tbh (and have a small wager to that effect, to further soften the blow - ahh the joys of hedging).

Off to class! (to teach hedging, amusingly enough :)
:D hey that's amazing.

I thank my finance profs for helping that reluctant callow kid of yore to see the light.
Unknowingly they did my FPL career (and investments, and life per se) a world of good.
As you are for some kids.
they are fee-paying adults rather than kids, before I appear too angelic! Accountancy exam classes :)

And I am still trying to find better ways of using my financial expertise in fantasy football...I rely too much on gut feel and eye test I fear.

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raoul
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Posts: 5031
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
FS Record: Tied for OR 1st worldwide in FPL in GW5 in 21/22 (only to then finish 1m), and ranked 1st in TFF late in season 21/22 (eventual finish 95th). Won an old game called Football Fantastic. Best Fanteam finish 117th and cashed £150. Best FPL finish 2.4K.

Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Turning into a dire week for me.

GK - The 2 I almost wild-carded in both kept a clean sheet. Of the 2 I have kept, Fabs has just kept a clean sheet. Am playing Cech. Am now convinced he will concede (to Richarlison no doubt)

DEF - Alonso and WB CS are nice, but I have Bellerin (see above re Cech) and VVD lasted 56 mins of the Liverpool CS. Grrr.

MID - Milivojevic gave his 6th game of no extra points (ok a CS point). Mane and Hazard nothing. And Stephens is crocked!

FWD - My Agueri to Lukaku transfer failed and Zaha blanked. Jimenez saves me with an assist

Pants!!

I need an Arsenal clean sheet (a Cech penalty save would be nice) and Bellerin to score/assist or something, partly to save my week a bit and moreover because most people are not so stupid as to own them...

It is not often I say this but Come on the Gunners. Please.

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raoul
Dumbledore
Posts: 5031
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
FS Record: Tied for OR 1st worldwide in FPL in GW5 in 21/22 (only to then finish 1m), and ranked 1st in TFF late in season 21/22 (eventual finish 95th). Won an old game called Football Fantastic. Best Fanteam finish 117th and cashed £150. Best FPL finish 2.4K.

Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Hallelujah.

Been at work but I got the impression Cech had a blinder.

Now ... do I keep the suddenly miserly Arsenal defence or get out while the going is good...

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raoul
Dumbledore
Posts: 5031
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
FS Record: Tied for OR 1st worldwide in FPL in GW5 in 21/22 (only to then finish 1m), and ranked 1st in TFF late in season 21/22 (eventual finish 95th). Won an old game called Football Fantastic. Best Fanteam finish 117th and cashed £150. Best FPL finish 2.4K.

Re: Raoul's RMT

Post by raoul »

Hallelujah.

Been at work but I got the impression Cech had a blinder.

Now ... do I keep the suddenly miserly Arsenal defence or get out while the going is good...

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