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Thoughts Of Kessie

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FranckKessie
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Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

39 points and the so far worst score of all FISO'er posting in the gameweek thread. Feels like a good time to start typing down ramblings and thereby avoid not needed transfers. So here I go :)

The season started off rather good, with two GW ranks around 400.000K mark, but in with an average rank of 3.100.000 in the last two rounds I am looking at an rank of 460.000. Not what I had in my when I saw my GW2 rank and the team in place for these two rounds.

My GW1 picks:
Pickford - Stekelenburg
Robertson - TAA - Mendy - Walker - Wan Bissaka
Salah - Eriksen - Richarlison - Fraser - Stephens
Aguero - Arnautovic - King

GK:
I ended up going full Everton due to their tendency to do very well at home historically. Up to GW9 their fixtures are good and they had some very tasty home fixtures. Furthermore I felt that the 4.5m GK with okay fixtures all played for teams I knew nothing off (Championship team) or played for no-go teams (SOU and WAT for example).

DEF:
I decided to invest heavily in what I considered to be the two best defensive teams, Liverpool and City. Liverpools transfer market I really liked. Allison, Fabinho and Keita were all additions I thought, and still do, would add an extra defensive level to an already impressive defensive machine. My expectation was that Robertson and TAA would be great value even though I expected Clyne to play some of the first games. The only problem with including both full backs was that it meant no Mane. Mane I saw as the best 9 - 10.5 mid for the early gameweeks, but in general my view was that value in this high-end mid bracket was very limited. In the end I was never in real doubt as to whether I should have both of Robertson and TAA.
City defenders was a bit different. Mendy was confirmed as must have after Community Shield. Walker was one of the last picks I selected. Their opening fixtures are amazing so I knew I wanted 3 City players, so I was only to figure out which ones?
I didn't like the looks of City mids due to rotational risk, but believe had D.Silva played Community Shield he would have found his way into my team. Chelsea I wanted to see in more action before allocating top premium money to their defence. Community Shield and their pre-season wasn't that glowing and the offensive points from the prior season were they still to come? Arsenal and Bellerin was an easy wait and see given their opening 3 fixtures. Picking a United defender playing each week I had trouble doing, and Spurs full-backs Davies and Trippier, who I expected to be first choice with some rotational risk attached to them (less than last year though), I wasn't keen on when half their team were arriving late due to WC. Later on I expected them to come in as they both have the attacking threat needed along with the defensive solidity. So in the end I included Walker in my side.
Each of the 4 I expected to hit the levels I would require from a 6M+ defender when playing, which is 4.66 points per match (PPM from now on) for a 6M defender and 5.08PPM from a 6.5M defender. My plan is to cover these targets in my next post, but they can also be found deep within the STC thread.
The last defender was 4.0m Wan-Bissaka who seemed like a great option, especially considering Palace's opening fixtures.

MID:
The analysis I had done in advance showed Salah to be a must. There was nothing in last years data that suggested I should go elsewhere. There were even room for a drop from him and still be value at 13M. Not having him would also be a great risk due to his ownership and the fact that he would be widely captained in the opening weeks.
Eriksen was more of a where do I put my money selection, rather than me liking him. He is known to be a steady performer, but I don't believe he will be a value player ever. "Best in class" target for his price is 5.76PPM (219 pts season) which I did not believe he would meet. The state of Spurs didn't make him more attractive, however he did have two okay opening fixtures, so I hoped for a goal + BPS or 2 assists.
Richarlison was kind of a gamble. Everton's fixtures looked good, I believed him to be a sure starter given his M.Silva history and I knew he had lots of potential. His target was 3.93PPM which I thought he could deliver.
Fraser has always delivered good relative to his price when playing. His problems has been around gametime, but given his pre-season form and gametime I belived the spots was his to loose. Furthermore there was little less competition due to Stanislas being injured. So for 5.5M, a target of 3.32PPM and Bournemouths opening fixtures he seemed to me like a brilliant inclusion.
Last man in midfields was Stephens due to his price and the fact that he looked like a sure starter. He was the only player who I knew would never stand a chance of being selected amongst the first 11 in a gameweek.

ATT:
I really fancied the strikers around 6.5M - 7.0M and for long time I wasn't sure whether to included Aguero in my team. Then came Community Shield and a deadly Aguero. He was in and hopefully he would delivered around 9PPM, like he did last year, in those lovely home fixtures. The final two spots could just as easily have ended up differently. Zaha in particular was on my radar, but pre-season settled it for me. Arnie and King, the latter who I believe was on Penalties, were in.

I was ready to rumble with a team I deemed good to go up until GW9-10 at least.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

My points per match targets:
As a completely new exercise I did "Best In Class" (top3'ish from each position and price points) points per match targets based on last year FPL data and this years opening prices. The aim of this exercise was mainly to identify price points where value could be found. I favoured doing points per match (ideally it would have been points per available match) rather than expected points targets, because I wanted to use my own judgement of gametime. For short periods of time I believe we as managers can do that and the first WC allows us to play with a short to medium-horizon. After the first WC the focus will be long term and therefore general gametime assumptions/expected points(xP) is my preference. xP estimates also tend to underestimate the value of a player for you as manager if the player tends to either start the match or do not play at all. This I believe holds for many defenders. Using TAA as an example where he averages 4.66 PPM when playing (I don't find that unreasonable), but never plays when he doesn't start. Assume he plays 60% of the time and we have Wan-Bissaka coming in if not for 3.2PPM.

xP = 60% * 4,66 + 3,2*40% = 4,04 points

I find this attractive, but it does put extra requirements on your bench. With no WC in hand this may be even more attractive, as we need to have a long-term focus.

"Best In Class" Graphs:
BestInClass.JPG
BestInClassTable.JPG
The graphs show lots of things. The first things one spots is where value for each position is to be found. These are all the bullets above the the dotted line meaning
GKs: Value can be found in all price points
DEFs: 6M price point stands remarkably out
MIDs: Price points to avoid are 6.0 - 6.5 and 9.5 - 10.5
FWDs You should either go to 11.0M or 6.5 - 7.0M spot

The next and perhaps more interesting thing is the slope of the dotted lines, because it tells us how much extra you benifit from spending 1M extra for each position. The slopes suggest that you gain the most by spending extra in defence. So if gametime isn't a concern and there is enough "value" players you should select defenders first and then decided later on where to allocate the rest. For this reason I am seriously considering going 5 in defence when WC, as I believe there is enough top6 wing backs (these combine offensive and defensive points which is essential) to pick from. The main concern I have is whether the likes of Trippier and Davies will play enough (I may have underestimated Poch), but luckily Chelsea haven't given up on offensive full-backs and Shaw also has the potential to come across as great investment. So Mendy-Robertson-TAA + 2 isn't unlikely from my side in the future.
Even though the slope of the MIDs are steeper than FWDs there isn't much difference in the lower end, so I won't be prioritizing one position over the other and likewise in the upper end. Had it not been for the re-classification of Zaha and Arnie I would have prioritised MIDs over FWDs.

The largest concern I had with this as starting approach was that I would miss out on points due to good fixtures. Would there be certain price points where fixtures mean so much that above graphs could be skipped up until first WC?
For that reason, I did two additional splits and looked at PPM for each of these splits. The splits I performed were:
-TopSix vs Non-TopSix
-Home vs Away

The results showed that defenders benefit the most from playing non-TopSix teams, and this goes for all price points. Amongst MIDs price points which benefitted the most from good fixtures were low to mid-priced midfielders.
Amongst FWDs Auba and Aguero were able to keep up with lower priced FWDs (Zaha, Arnie,Tosun), but whereas low price FWDs care less whether the fixture is home or away, Auba and Aguero both seem to perform significantly better at home (around 9PPM) making them stand out captaincy options in those fixtures, only bettered by Salah with +10PPM in home non-topSix matches.
For all positions playing at home being is an advantage.
The main take away from these splits was that there were no players not on my radar that suddenly pop-up as very good options, and up to first WC chasing lower priced players with good fixtures seem to be a good place to spend transfers.
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Stemania »

Ooh, now this is an RMT thread I've been waiting for. :D

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Stemania wrote: Ooh, now this is an RMT thread I've been waiting for. :D
Concurred. But the title could stand a bit of work, FK. The Thoughts of Chairman Kessie has a nice ring to it maybe? :)

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Thanks guys. Hopefully I won't disappoint you, besides the title that is :D

I thought it might be worthwhile for any reader to see the numbers from the nonTopSix analysis. My graphical skills could use some polishing, so I decided to do it in a table instead.
BestInClassTable.JPG
Table shows targets graphed above, along with additional points one should expected from not playing topSix. In the "first phase", i.e. up until first WC, these additional point targets are perhaps the ones managers should be targeting, because you to a have much greater freedom when selecting your initial picks. What is achievable clearly depends on initial fixtures, but this year I would have expected overall points to be higher than previous years simply due to Liverpool and City's opening fixtures.

Next up on my agenda is a review of my first four gameweeks.
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Patrician »

Ooo I love a good stat attack. Some very nice analysis there. If I could be so bold, allow me to offer some ideas.

First, don’t use actual points scored as an input into your thinking. It has a number of problems.

1) It is a stat easily visible to all, and is used as the basis for decisions by the crowd. You want to beat the crowd.
2) Points are a function of goals scored (mostly), and goals are a high variance outcome in football. Imagine two players. The first scores a 30 yard screamer with his only shot of the match, the second scores a tap in with his fifth shot in the box. Same points, the second one looks like a goal a game player, the first resembles a few goals per season player.
3) The inevitable conclusion of points watching is jumping on the wrong players who have already scored when they were not on your team. That path leads to mediocrity.

As a case in point, you highlight Auba with his very impressive pts/game from last season. Deeper analysis will tell you this was the product of a 30% chance conversion rate. Deeper analysis still will inform you that 20% is an elite chance conversion rate. So you need to assess Auba with that in mind. Either he is 150% the player Aguero is, or he had a lucky streak. Adjust his points to a 20% conversion rate. How does he look now? This is the secret of forecasting the future in FPL

Now smart players know not to points chase, but some smart players become so principled by that idea that they also fail to analyse the underlying stats and miss the true bandwagons. I call this the Salah effect. If a player is scoring big points, adjust their points based on their underlying stats and decide if they are value. If they are not scoring big points and have a high price, adjust for the underlying stats and decide on that.

Post more!!!


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FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Completely agree that more granular analysis would be of preference. Unfortunately these data are not available on the official site and I don't have the time to go chase them elsewhere. So I'll have to do with what is freely available to me :)

All stats should be treated carefully, and as you rightly say Auba's sample is very limited so estimates should be taken with a pinch of salt as it will have an even greater amount of uncertainty attached to it. What the targets are good for is identifying potential picks. I haven't developed any forecasting model so for that I am still relying on my brain :)

FWIW: My impression of Auba hasn't changed much. His time to shine will first truly come from GW6 to GW9. Arsenal away and home are two different worlds according to history.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Patrician »

There are quite a few sites where you can get full Opta stats, but you have to pay. As an alternative you can sense check using Understat which is free. xGI90is a very good proxy for forecasting


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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by DAREEL »

FranckKessie wrote: 03 Sep 2018, 12:20 My points per match targets:
As a completely new exercise I did "Best In Class" (top3'ish from each position and price points) points per match targets based on last year FPL data and this years opening prices. The aim of this exercise was mainly to identify price points where value could be found. I favoured doing points per match (ideally it would have been points per available match) rather than expected points targets, because I wanted to use my own judgement of gametime. For short periods of time I believe we as managers can do that and the first WC allows us to play with a short to medium-horizon. After the first WC the focus will be long term and therefore general gametime assumptions/expected points(xP) is my preference. xP estimates also tend to underestimate the value of a player for you as manager if the player tends to either start the match or do not play at all. This I believe holds for many defenders. Using TAA as an example where he averages 4.66 PPM when playing (I don't find that unreasonable), but never plays when he doesn't start. Assume he plays 60% of the time and we have Wan-Bissaka coming in if not for 3.2PPM.

xP = 60% * 4,66 + 3,2*40% = 4,04 points

I find this attractive, but it does put extra requirements on your bench. With no WC in hand this may be even more attractive, as we need to have a long-term focus.

"Best In Class" Graphs:
BestInClass.JPGBestInClassTable.JPG

The graphs show lots of things. The first things one spots is where value for each position is to be found. These are all the bullets above the the dotted line meaning
GKs: Value can be found in all price points
DEFs: 6M price point stands remarkably out
MIDs: Price points to avoid are 6.0 - 6.5 and 9.5 - 10.5
FWDs You should either go to 11.0M or 6.5 - 7.0M spot

The next and perhaps more interesting thing is the slope of the dotted lines, because it tells us how much extra you benifit from spending 1M extra for each position. The slopes suggest that you gain the most by spending extra in defence. So if gametime isn't a concern and there is enough "value" players you should select defenders first and then decided later on where to allocate the rest. For this reason I am seriously considering going 5 in defence when WC, as I believe there is enough top6 wing backs (these combine offensive and defensive points which is essential) to pick from. The main concern I have is whether the likes of Trippier and Davies will play enough (I may have underestimated Poch), but luckily Chelsea haven't given up on offensive full-backs and Shaw also has the potential to come across as great investment. So Mendy-Robertson-TAA + 2 isn't unlikely from my side in the future.
Even though the slope of the MIDs are steeper than FWDs there isn't much difference in the lower end, so I won't be prioritizing one position over the other and likewise in the upper end. Had it not been for the re-classification of Zaha and Arnie I would have prioritised MIDs over FWDs.

The largest concern I had with this as starting approach was that I would miss out on points due to good fixtures. Would there be certain price points where fixtures mean so much that above graphs could be skipped up until first WC?
For that reason, I did two additional splits and looked at PPM for each of these splits. The splits I performed were:
-TopSix vs Non-TopSix
-Home vs Away

The results showed that defenders benefit the most from playing non-TopSix teams, and this goes for all price points. Amongst MIDs price points which benefitted the most from good fixtures were low to mid-priced midfielders.
Amongst FWDs Auba and Aguero were able to keep up with lower priced FWDs (Zaha, Arnie,Tosun), but whereas low price FWDs care less whether the fixture is home or away, Auba and Aguero both seem to perform significantly better at home (around 9PPM) making them stand out captaincy options in those fixtures, only bettered by Salah with +10PPM in home non-topSix matches.
For all positions playing at home being is an advantage.
The main take away from these splits was that there were no players not on my radar that suddenly pop-up as very good options, and up to first WC chasing lower priced players with good fixtures seem to be a good place to spend transfers.
This is a great post thanks. Your like a FISO version of Ludo from FFS . I don't follow stats much as I like to watch games but every now and then I find a poster that can make me enjoy reading stats based posts. I'll be looking out for more of these gems . Top work

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by No Way Jose »

Good stuff FK. One of my favourite posters on here so glad you've got your RMT going

Confirms some things like the spend in defence and fixture importance for certain price points which is a great lens to make decisions through

Good attacking instincts for your back post goal at the weekend too ;)

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Gameweek 1-4 Review:
Unlike many others I my first 15 picks has not focused on having all my money tied up in the first eleven. Many teams seemed to have an extra 9.5'ish mid, whereas I downgraded that spot and spread funds out widely. This was driven by one decision, namely I wanted TAA over Mane. A decision which so far has not proven to be good in terms of FPL points. This increases the amount of decisions to make and unfortunate/bad decision making (I'll let you be the judges of that) is the general feeling I am left with after the first four gameweeks.
I've tried to list the decisions I've had to make throughout first four weeks and the rationale behind them:

GW1: Pick 2 from 3 to start between Arnautovic(a LIV),Richarlison(a WOL) and Fraser(h CAR).

First pick of the bunch was Arnautovic. This was a rather defensive minded pick, and mainly choosen because I would also start Robertson and TAA, so in case the would not keep a CS I would have decent probability of having the goal scorer. In the last spot I ended up going with Fraser as I believed he had the better fixture and higher xP. In the end Richarlison outscored both.

GW2: Pick 1 of King and Fraser to play, where to put the armband Salah or Aguero.

With Wilson unlikely to steal another PEN from King I decided to go with him over Fraser who seemed to have better form. King blanked and Fraser delivered 6 points which eventually came off the bench due to Walker not playing. Like many others the captaincy decision was greatly influenced by rumours of Aguero dropping to the bench. One never knows whether the rumours turn out to be true, in this case not. What I believe in,however, is that once these rumours starts it does increase the likelyhood of a player not starting. So if Aguero had a 75% of starting without any rumours then the probability of starting would only be 60% with rumours flowing around. This impacts both Aguero's xP and to lesser degree the captaincy decision. But based on this assumption I did some estimates and they showed Salah to come out slightly on top. In the end the point difference of 11 between selecting Aguero or Salah as captaincy was huge and a semi-extreme event.

GW3: Two Transfer decisions but no real benching headaches.

I contemplated with the following transfer decisions:
1. Eriksen :arrow: Mhkitaryan
2. Eriksen and King :arrow: Ings and Mhkitaryan
3. Eriksen and King :arrow: Ings and Hazard

I decided for option 2. as Ings seemed as a great option at 5.5M for the long run and with Mhkitaryan showing good offensive signs and also decent defensive stats (I think somone posted these of FFS) he looked like a relative secure way into Arsenals great fixtures (I do remember Baganboy saying he was a wait and see though). Both players coming in were outscored by the players I transfered out so a start similar to the one I made last year. (Transfered out Salah in GW3, and by GW6-8 I was still better off with my set and forget GW1 team).

GW4: 1 to pick from Ings and Wan-Bissaka and 3.5M in the bank to play with.

With 3.5M in the bank I felt I needed to replace Richarlison. The two players in MIDs I really considered was Hazard and D.Silva. Both would required a -4 due to already having 3 City players and not enough funds to go directly to Hazard. City's immediate fixtures couldn't be any better and with D.Silva not having to play Internationals I found him rather safe from rotation up to GW9 (potential WC), so he was my main preference. I could fund this by going Walker :arrow: Alonso, even though I had/have reservations on Chelsea's defensive abilities and felt that Alonso had been very fortunate offensive wise so far (like Mendy and Robertson). The person I would have had to buy along with Hazard I never really consider, but budget would have been around 6M I believe.
Walker outscored Alonso, and even though D.Silva was 3rd on threat for the round and 2nd on Creativity for the round when looking at official FPL stats he was more or less the only non-producing MID in round. Pedro,Hazard,Moura and Mane all delivered the goods.
Ings vs Wan-Bissaka was close call before the marking of Ings, but with concerns on his playtime I was confident Wan-Bissaka was the better choice so I went with the defender. It was however a long pass between what felt like 10 CPL defenders before ending up at Ings that settled that dual. 8 points in difference.

These are the decision I've made so far and hopefully my decision making is about to turn for the better. Introduction of VAR wouldn't be bad either :wink:

The end of this post I would like to dedicate to the forum as I do not remember a point in time where I have seen so much interesting stuff (both in writing and visualisation) in other threads. Keep up the good work!

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Ruth_NZ »

FranckKessie wrote:I do not remember a point in time where I have seen so much interesting stuff (both in writing and visualisation) in other threads.
Well said. I agree with you, FISO FPL is thriving at the moment.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by baganboy »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 08 Sep 2018, 22:48
FranckKessie wrote:I do not remember a point in time where I have seen so much interesting stuff (both in writing and visualisation) in other threads.
Well said. I agree with you, FISO FPL is thriving at the moment.
Agree with part 2 (that FISO FPL is absolutely rocking the floor). Disagree with part 1 (about the past).

FISO is old. THIS is where proper FPL analysis started. It has seen some other pretty great days earlier too. not that now isn't comparable. It is, and it's great to be around.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by blahblah »

Stemania wrote: 03 Sep 2018, 12:49 Ooh, now this is an RMT thread I've been waiting for. :D
Just found it, and yep.

I'm not reading beyond GW1 now, as I sense it will be a dish best served sober :lol:

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by baganboy »

PS: FranckKessie, sorry to have not been able to spend much time on this thread earlier. Really exciting thread you have here - perhaps the one that I should follow the most intently. Closest to my general direction of thinking.
I think I will get a lot to pick up and learn from this thread. Thanks for this.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Patrician »

The quality of insight and debate has always been best on FISO. So many top contributors with a number of different styles of play.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by blahblah »

Patrician wrote: 08 Sep 2018, 23:06 The quality of insight and debate has always been best on FISO. So many top contributors with a number of different styles of play.
thanks 8-)

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

I am planning on doing some simulation analysis, and therefore need a good structure of a team with "Weak Bench".

I am thinking something like this where I need to fill in the xx's
4.5 xx
6.0 6.5 6.0 xx xx
13 10.5 xx xx 4.5
11 xx xx

What do you guys think the xx's should be?

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Stu255 »

FranckKessie wrote: 11 Sep 2018, 21:50 I am planning on doing some simulation analysis, and therefore need a good structure of a team with "Weak Bench".

I am thinking something like this where I need to fill in the xx's
4.5 xx
6.0 6.5 6.0 xx xx
13 10.5 xx xx 4.5
11 xx xx

What do you guys think the xx's should be?
Hamer, Wan-Bissaka, Bennet, Mane, Seri, Joselu, Kamara

No idea what TV that comes to?

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

I haven’t had time to do the simulation analysis yet due to work, but it is very much on the agenda still.

Gameweek 5 Preview:

Pickford
Alonso Robertson Wan-Bissaka Mendy
Fraser Salah D.Silva
Aguero Ings Arnautovic
Stekelenburg Mkhitaryan TAA Stephens

This will be my lineup for the GW5. Hopefully
Fraser will overcome his hamstring even though I do not expect him to play. Uncertainty around Fraser made me even more in doubt whether to replace to Mkhitaryan or not. Pedro looked to be the most exiciting prospect but I havent sorted the direction of team going forward so Id like the flexibility of 2 transfers next week.
I am not excited with any of my subs, but so i’ll count on some luck and hope either Mkhitaryan or Fraser play from start. If they do they are better than my other options.

Good luck all of you.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Gameweek 5 Review And 6 Preview:

I couldn't have hoped for a better GW than last one. Fraser,Arnautovic, D.Silva all came out with 2 digits scores and Wan-Bissaka and Ings also delivered. Furthermore my team accumulated wooping 13 bonus points. In all I ended at 79 points for the week and a nice green arrow. Unfortunately my team for this weeks gameweek round been hit by uncertainty around gametime due injuries for Mendy and Arnautovic. So far I haven't seen any pictures of them training but I really, so have to decide which transfers to make. Luckily I have two free ones and I think there is a chance of me doing a -4 or even -8.
I've already made my first move

Pickford :arrow: Patricio

Everton and CS are two different worlds so even if fixtures are okay I had to deal with Pickford. Moving early allow me not to loose 0.1 on him as I have done on Mkhitaryan. In comes Patricio as Wolves looks to be outstanding value from a defensive perspective.

I haven't decided on the rest of my transfers, but the different combinations I have considered are:
1. Save (requires Mendy ready to go)
2. Mkhitaryan :arrow: Richarlison (maybe Maddison)
3. Mendy and Mkhitaryan :arrow: Bennet and Hazard (-4)
4. Mendy, Arnautovic and Mkhitaryan :arrow: Doherty, Jimenez and Hazard (-8)

Right now I am leaning towards 2. with the view to move Bissaka :arrow: Doherty in the following week. I really like the offensive stats of Doherty and combined with the defensive stats of Wolves he looks like a really exciting option.
Hazard or no Hazard is the big question for me at the moment. In hindsight I should perhaps have moved earlier for Hazard because his double rise means it requires one extra transfer in most combinations that I am really keen on. His WHU fixture is really nice, but Liverpool doesn't get any worse and I am really keen on seing what Chelsea really can offer. Are they title contenders? I don't think so but time will tell. Currently my view is that Liverpool and City are a class above in both ends. So people talk of Liverpools bad fixtures, but to me Chelsea fixtures are worse. On the other hand Chelsea key assets do not have the same perceived rotational risk attached to them, but over the next 2 at least I doubt we will see much rotation.

If you guys have good suggestions I am keen to hear your views? Currently I have 1.9 in the bank.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Patrician »

I think the big Hazard question has a big answer. He is probably going to turn out to be the must have of the season. He is the only player I have that I don’t consider an option to transfer out. Get on while his price is still outstanding value


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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Ruth_NZ »

I think the transfer you already did is good and also like your option 2 best (Richarlison). Patrician is likely right about Hazard but he's 10.9m now and waiting a week or two won't kill you, he'll still probably be available for 11m at that time. I'd want him by GW8 latest though.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Thanks for your inputs both.

I agree that long term he looks to be a certainty. I dont intend to captain him over the next 4 matches him so his attractiveness drop and waiting a couple of gameweek hopefully will not matter much both in terms of points and price.
Mendy confirmed out is clearly not what I hoped for but -4 will not come good this week. So I think it will be option 2 and hoping the Arnautovic will play. WC has crossed my mind but do not like the timing of it.

Haven’t pulled the trigger but
This week: Mkhitaryan :arrow: Richarlison
Next week: Mendy(injured) :arrow: Doherty
Week after: D.Silva :arrow: Hazard
is my initial plan.

My team for the weekend would then be
Patricio
Alonso TAA Robertson Wan-Bissaka
Richarlison D.Silva Fraser Salah(C)
Arnautovic Aguero(VC)

Stekelenburg Stephens Mendy Ings

Hopefully my bench will not be needed, but that cant get any worse :lol:

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Gameweek 6 Review
63 points and a move from 160k to 122k.

Overall a fine week with a green arrow. Once again the defence delivered with 33 points meaning that so far they have racked up an average around 6 points per match. These numbers I clearly hope will continue, but the defensive boat is steering into troubled waters over the next two gameweeks. The next biggest source of points was the players with the armband on. This week Salah who returned 8 points, which I consider slightly below expectation. I am still looking for the first really big haul from my (C), so far I've had no blanks but highest points gained from (C) is still only 9 points. Looking at the fixtures that my two captains Salah and Aguero have had so far I would have hoped for more returns in this department.
The remaining 14 points were spread out on 6 players, so really not impressive numbers. Actually I only managed to field 10 players playing and Stephens only managed 20 minutes before leaving the pitch. I new before the gameweek that my bench was extremely thin, so when D.Silva was rested I knew that there was a clear possibility of only being able to field 10 players due to uncertainty around Arnautovic. Sadly for me he didn't play, but West Ham kept Chelsea and more importantly Hazard from scoring so in the end I can't complain. I haven't seen anything from the WHU-CHE match yet, and CHE may simply have been unfortunate but I do think CHE lacks proven goal scorers in their team.

Transfer Plans

Mendy and Arnautovic not playing have made me consider how to approach the coming gameweek. Both are about to fall in price costing me 0.1 when they do, which is frustrating so I am leaning towards doing Mendy :arrow: Doherty early and then make a late decision whether to do Arnautovic or Ings :arrow: Mitrovic.
My reasoning for getting Mitrovic in is simpIe. Fulham seems to be a very good attacking team and Mitrovic is their centre forward. His stats are extremely good and so are his fixtures over up until GW12. I think Arnautovic if fit will outscore Ings over the next 3, and I think Mitrovic will outscore Ings by +4 over the coming weeks so the -4 I believe will come good.
Mendy is a bit more tricky. His injury means he will have high risk of being out for BHA in the coming week but Pep's introduction of Sane, who I find mindblowing, means I am a much more sceptical of Mendy's role. So far Mendy and Sane haven't played together, as I remember, because they both tend to take up the same space. I want Mendy to play out wide, and I am not sure that will happen if Sane continues the tendencies I've seen lately. He will still be a fine option, but Doherty and Wolves look to be better value current in my view.

In GW8 D.Silva :arrow: Hazard is on and with current prices I have a buffer of 0.4 and I do not want to jeopardize being able to make this move.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Wildcard Draft
I am anticipating injury news tomorrow. If Arnautovic is confirmed out I am pondering wether to use my WC. D.Silva playing in the LC means I am afraid he will miss out again, as I see a not little chance of Pep wanting him fresh for the two important fixtures after Brighton. Furthermore Klopp confirmed TAA is carrying something and I have also read injury rumours on Doherty. So just in case I will have a WC prepared such that I am not totally caught with my pants down :)

I am looking at something like

Hart - Button
TAA - Robertson - Trippier - Doherty - Jonny
Richarlison - Fraser - Salah - Gudmonsson - Stephens
Mitrovic - Kane - Aguero


or

Hart - Button
TAA - Robertson - Trippier - Doherty - Bennett
Richarlison - Fraser - Hazard - Son - Stephens
Mitrovic - Kane - Aguero


I think I'd be willing to risk it with blue actually, but I am not totally convinced I want that much Spurs reliance. In green I could squeeze Lamela in if wanting to. Which do you guys like the most?

The immediate transfer afterwards would be
Kane :arrow: Arnautovic
Son/Gudmonsson :arrow: Salah/Hazard
Trippier :arrow: Some other big defensive dude with a lot of attacking threat

But hey I am not sure I will even activate the button, as I like my existing team for the longer term. Short term is where I see some BIG opportunities :)
Last edited by FranckKessie on 27 Sep 2018, 20:35, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by alexmj »

Iike both of these and I'm thinking similar, really fancy Gudmundson too for the next two games.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by blahblah »

Assuming your FPL button is up to date, you aren't making many Transfers?

Only having 10 or 11 starters with Lpool and Chel defenders may look scary, but a hit or 2 would fix it?

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Mendy :arrow: Doherty has been confirmed, everything else is as you see it. If I do not use the WC I as a minimum do a -4.

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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by blahblah »

If Arnie is OK, then Schurrle may sort you out?

Or TAA to Laporte?

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