Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

[raoul]

I was referring to this post, I think it is basically just points and ranking so far together with bubble size = price, isn't it? And then you have the GW1-6 dream team kind of thing.

If we had that for 7-12, 13-18 and so on we'd have something interesting to compare, looking at how much the names on the bubbles vary. That might give an indication of the degree to which chasing hot streaks (whatever name you use) is a valid tactic. I think it is but that may be because I have always done it.

It's easy to do that on a weekly basis and see if there is any major structural landscape shift underway.

It might not always be as hockey stick shaped as GW1-6 (shown above), but I guess understanding the shape of the larger landscape (for recent GW) and getting an idea of how it is likely to evolve with the next batch of fixtures is probably quite a good way to develop transfer strategy.

So far the best 3 teams have not played each other and all 3 have had a fairly generous fixture list in general. I am not expecting a seismic shift in the next 2-4 weeks, but the points multiples being earned by their defenders in particular (many of whom are not being rotated) are surely going to lower.

[Droughton]

Here is the chart remade with bubbles to show price.

GW6 landscape 02.png

*price is proportional to bubble width (not area). I have also subtracted the base price as this is beyond control of the manager.
I feel this is a pretty good single page view of the landscape (performance is retrospective in this view).

The best retrospective team is...

£4.6m Hennesssey
£6.9m Alonso
£6.2m Robertson
£4.9m Holebas
£5.1m TAA
£11.0m Hazard
£10.0m Mane
£5.9m Fraser
£6.8m Maddison
£11.4m Aguero
£7.0m Mitrovic

Total points = 448 (without captain) = 500 with Alonso set as captain = would be ranked as #1 Overall.
All with 6FT's intact, with no autosubs, and all wildcards intact.

This starting XI costs £79.8 million to buy so with a base price bench your squad value would be £96.8million.

What is the point of all this?

Well this demonstrates that there isn't much budget pressure this year, or so far this year. You can easily access the hockey stick without being budget constrained. If anything the human bias to deploy the full budget may actually be hurting your decisions and pushing you towards inferior players with higher arbitrary FPL prices.

Your budget has no intrinsic value it is just a resource, only points have any intrinsic value.

I agree but also let’s remember this isn’t a big sample size so some of the explosive returns over 6 weeks e.g Alonso maybe skew this. It would be interesting at the end of the season to look at how this team performed over 38 weeks.

Loving all the info and graphs Stu I will contribute more when I have spare time.

As for manager styles I think I would agree you are TAD but I think a couple of your hits were not 100% necessary

I would call myself more TIP but I do use A and can be D at times with a couple hits so far. I think you have taken a big step in creating a RMT where other players will come in and contribute/analyse and debate with you. It is a good self help and I always like to write down my transfers and why I’m making them. Then I can look back and be like, you were right/wrong about x/y/z

[Stu255]

This is my current thinking for GW7.

GW7 Team.png

Leaving out Azpilicueta and Milner.

Liverpool - Chelsea is a big one here and Liverpool just look too good going forward, hard to imagine any defence keeping them out and having two defenders face them just feels a bit overexposed.
Milner would normally play, but injuries at Newcastle mean Joselu is likely to start and he has more upside than poor Milner trying to shadow Hazard for 90 minutes. Doubt Milner will venture over the halfway line even once (I wouldn't).

The other decision is the armband, usually would go for Aguero, but UCL and Liverpool next week have me thinking he will only get 60 minutes tops. As soon as City kill the game I'm worried Aguero will be coming off to protect any risk of aggravating last weeks Ankle strain ahead of two must win fixtures.

Aguero gets more shots than anyone but Kane gets more "big chances" than Aguero. Kane has been a little wasteful so far converting only 20% of them. But Kane's "Threat" has been rising steadily for 4 weeks now and if the trend continues Kane's "Threat" will surpass Aguero's this weekend. Also Spurs have no Eriksen so only 4 players will be competing for BP (no BP for Aguero if he gets subbed) and Huddersfield are bloody awful they don't even know who their keeper is.

To be honest, there's not much in it. Both are great and I want them both to do well.

[Stu255]

Made another Saturday evening transfer this week Richarlison Maddison. The effect of this is that it means I spend any FPL time agonizing over captaincy selections but this week is a no brainer as I have Kane ready to go.
So that frees up my week to dig into numbers and see if I find anything new or interesting.

What I have done this evening is to look back at where my points so far have come from.
After stripping out the captaincy it looks like this...

GKP = 4.00 pts / game
DEF = 5.17 pts / player per game
MID = 3.42 pts / player per game
FWD = 6.67 pts / player per game

My midfield has been terrible. I think there are 2 options to try and amend this...
1). Continue trading out midfielders, or change how I assess them prior to bringing them in. Basically churn my midfield until the 3.42 improves.
2). Accept that for some reason my midfielders are a weak spot and play 5-2-3. Basically accept the 3.42 and pick the team around it.

[ajcairns]

How do them numbers stack up against the value of your players?

And are they just your scoring players, and exclude your bench? You’ve only played your maximum attackers twice this season so there is an element of cherry picking the players and hence they will score well comparatively. How do the numbers look when you include the non scoring plyers in your squad each week?

[FranckKessie]

This is a useful site you may not know of. Simply plug in any FPL-id and press load stats.
https://www.anewpla.net/fpl/report/

[Ruth_NZ]

If you want a reference...

GK - Something around 4.3 to 4.6 PPG is typical in the top 10k over the last 2 seasons;
D - Between 3.9 and 4.3 PPG (you are crushing this so far);
M - Between 5.2 and 6.0 PPG would be the target range (your number here is awful);
F - Something in the 5.5 to 6.3 range is typical at the top end here, so you are up in this category also.

Obviously the M/F numbers are affected by whether you are tending to captain midfielders or forwards. I'd guess from your numbers that you have mainly captained forwards so far? If so, that would partly explain the low midfielder PPG and higher forward PPG.

I have done a similar exercise in the past and adjusted the balance of budget spend in the various categories as a result. That can work. But I'm not sure that 6/7 weeks in is long enough for those numbers to be reliable yet.

[Stu255]

If you want a reference...

GK - Something around 4.3 to 4.6 PPG is typical in the top 10k over the last 2 seasons;
D - Between 3.9 and 4.3 PPG (you are crushing this so far);
M - Between 5.2 and 6.0 PPG would be the target range (your number here is awful);
F - Something in the 5.5 to 6.3 range is typical at the top end here, so you are up in this category also.

Obviously the M/F numbers are affected by whether you are tending to captain midfielders or forwards. I'd guess from your numbers that you have mainly captained forwards so far? If so, that would partly explain the low midfielder PPG and higher forward PPG.

I have done a similar exercise in the past and adjusted the balance of budget spend in the various categories as a result. That can work. But I'm not sure that 6/7 weeks in is long enough for those numbers to be reliable yet.

Thanks that's very helpful, seems obvious now that the problem has been in my midfield.

With captaincy points stripped out it looks like this...

GW1-7.png

and I usually play with an overweight midfield?

Looking back I have had a string of expensive and disappointing midfielders...

GW1 - Salah, Shaqiri, Eriksen, Son
GW2 - Bilva, Richarlison, Pogba, Mane
GW3 - Mkhitaryan, Bilva, Pogba, Richarlison, Mane
GW4 - Mkhitaryan, Pogba, Seri, Mane
GW5 - Milner, Pogba, Mane
GW6 - Mane, Milner, Hazard, Seri, Richarlison
GW7 - Mane, Hazard, Seri, Richarlison, Milner

Ugh, tempted to switch my bias from having over 4 mids to having less than 4. Maybe even 2 at times and play with 3 up front.

[Stu255]

This is a useful site you may not know of. Simply plug in any FPL-id and press load stats.
https://www.anewpla.net/fpl/report/

Thanks Franck, that is a really interesting site!

One of the biggest surprises for me is that so far I have taken a lot of hits (-20pts from hits so far) yet every single one has resulted in an immediate net points benefit.

GW3 = -8pts hit => Immediate transfer points (In-out) = +9pts = Overall +1pts
GW4 = -4pts hit => Immediate transfer points (In-out) = +7pts = Overall +3pts
GW5 = -4pts hit => Immediate transfer points (In-out) = +5pts = Overall +1pts
GW6 = 0pts hit => Immediate transfer points (In-out) = +1pts = Overall +1pts
GW7 = -4pts hit => Immediate transfer points (In-out) = +11pts = Overall +7pts

Obviously I have cursed this streak by simply posting about it, but perhaps this is an area of my game where I do better than most?
The other area where I seem to have done fairly well so far is the captaincy.

Just need to get this midfield working properly and hopefully things will improve for me.

[Stu255]

Only thing I am going to labour over this week... TC Kane this weekend?
Seems perfect as he isn't too widely owned especially amongst active managers.

Any perceived wisdom on this?

[Smurphy Paw]

The perceived wisdom is to use the TC in a double game week when one of the options has a pair of great fixtures. If your chosen player has 180 minutes to achieve rather than 90 you’re more likely to get a double-figure return.

To counter that:
Last year loads of people TCd Kane in each of two double game weeks. In one he was still overcoming an injury and those who used it then, in my view, paid for the error of judgement.
During the next DGW the outcome was somewhat the same, with the most likely candidates faring badly (I’d have to check for specific numbers, but there were many unhappy people).

The arguments for a SGW TC:
Rotation can be a factor, especially later in the season
If you pick well a player can do better in one week that others in two. Examples include Aguero a couple of seasons ago and Salah last season. Both scored very heavily - more than a hat trick
I also scored well using it in a SGW, also Salah, but sadly not his 4-goal haul.

So, if you think this is the best opportunity, it looks to be a reasonable fixture in which to use it. First satisfy yourself that you’ll not be disappointed if there’s a juicy double game week further down the line.
At the moment I suspect there might be better opportunities and will hold, but who can tell?

[raoul]

GW15 for Kane looks tasty. Or possibly Salah if he is firing properly by then.

But as single GWs go Cardiff at home is plausible.

But I'll be holding I think.

[Stu255]

So, if you think this is the best opportunity, it looks to be a reasonable fixture in which to use it. First satisfy yourself that you’ll not be disappointed if there’s a juicy double game week further down the line.
At the moment I suspect there might be better opportunities and will hold, but who can tell?

On this occasion there is also the factor that so many other captain options will be tied up in Man City v Liverpool

Surely the timing of the TC is not just to try and achieve the best possible haul, but also the haul with the largest possible delta over other captain options?
Kane's ownership is currently about 25% and most of the other captains this week have fairly difficult fixtures.

Also this is the time of the season when Away teams find it almost impossible to keep clean sheets, whereas in the DGW period 31-38 that is the part of the season with by far the most clean sheets and where away teams actually match home teams for CS's.


I've talked myself into it I think. Fingers crossed.

[raoul]

You can only worry about your own points. The differential to focus on is Cardiff at home v other opportunities to captain someone in a different week. If you use it this week and haul, others who don't TC this weekend can still use it later and might outdo you.

It's not a dreadful decision. But I doubt it is the best decision.

[Smurphy Paw]

Raoul has answered this but to corroborate, the comparison with other captaincy options this week is only relevant if you’re in a weekly competition this week. If you’re competing over a full season the specific week you gain benefit is not relevant.
Kane is worth consideration of course. But not for the reason you stated

[dino1980]

Hey Stu, another site that you'll get some stats use out of is Premier Fantasy Tools, particularly this bit. https://premierfantasytools.com/fpl-team-analyzer
Just pop in your Team ID and it crunches the numbers and spits out all sorts of data, including points per game per position, various value analytics etc too.

[FranckKessie]

You are spot on Stu. You want the most expected points and the largest delta over other options. I do not believe the delta between Kane and Hazard to be large though. 1 point in expectation perhaps? What do you assess it to be?
Hazard I believe will be widely captained among non-Kane managers and is highly owned as well. Important week this one though from (C) perspective. Damage can be done.

[Smurphy Paw]

Captaincy, yes Franck. TC though?

[FranckKessie]

Same concept except that TC needs to be compared across all gameweeks and multiplyer being 3 instead of 2. But I think Stu knows he needs to compare across gameweeks. He talks about timing...

[blahblah]

Same concept except that TC needs to be compared across all gameweeks and multiplyer being 3 instead of 2. But I think Stu knows he needs to compare across gameweeks. He talks about timing...

It depends on what\when you are comparing it against.

Within the same GW it is (n-1) times the difference between two players where C'ing one n=2, and tripling n=3 ie either Eden or Kane. So one gets 1 point and the other 10 the difference is 9 points - 21 vs 12, and tripling is 31 vs 13.

However the TC is more often compared against someone in a different GW. So is 3x points of the TC minus Twice the alternative, so the n above could just as easily be applied. Last Season Salah bagged 25 points (or close to) in the BGW of the FAC Cup 4th Round and TC got 75 points, but us who just C'ed him still got 50, so the gain was "only" 25, and then the points we got from TC'ing need to be subtracted from the 25.

Btw forget the PM, I found it.

[Ironfist]

@Stu255 - putting aside all the cleverness of the statistical analysis... if that team link is really yours, you should drastically reduce the amount of point hits you take. 20 points in 7 GWs is quite a bit. I guess that is part of the game strategy no one talks about any more If you are so keen on using the data to calculate your future choices, at least extend your planning view. You'll find that point hits are part of the game, but can easily lead you to some sort of false security in making decisions that are supposed to over come the points (hits) loss and in some cases an insatiable hunger born from point chasing.

[ricardo68]

https://www.gargatron.com let's you know what points you missed picking the wrong captain

[Stu255]

@Stu255 - putting aside all the cleverness of the statistical analysis... if that team link is really yours, you should drastically reduce the amount of point hits you take. 20 points in 7 GWs is quite a bit. I guess that is part of the game strategy no one talks about any more If you are so keen on using the data to calculate your future choices, at least extend your planning view. You'll find that point hits are part of the game, but can easily lead you to some sort of false security in making decisions that are supposed to over come the points (hits) loss and in some cases an insatiable hunger born from point chasing.

Hi IF, yeah I am aware that I am taking a lot of hits and it's a lot more than I would like.

Have you seen this post above?
viewtopic.php?p=3253545#p3253210

Basically I have taken 20pts of hits so far, but according to https://www.anewpla.net/fpl/report/ these transfers have resulted in an immediate return of 33pts.
The immediate return is calculated as the points of the players brought in minus the points of the players transferred out during the game that immediately follows the transfers.

That leaves me 13pts ahead once netted out. I was shocked to discover this as I assumed that I would be net negative.
So far (and it won't last) every hit (indeed every transfer) has resulted in an immediate net gain.

Hits and the captaincy seem to be two areas where I have done well (or have been very lucky) so far.

Where I am hemorrhaging points is my midfield, which has been drowning in an ocean of 1's and 2's, even though I have invested heavily there and played with 4 or 5 mids.
I'm going to play 5-3-2 or even 5-2-3 for a while to purge the rot. I've used 2 DM's but it's not even been those guys who have underperformed, it's been the Pogba's and Mkhitaryan's and Bernardo Silva's who cost £8m each.

[Stu255]

https://www.gargatron.com let's you know what points you missed picking the wrong captain

From here...
https://www.gargatron.com/

Total captain score 102
Captain score had you swapped all C / VC 72
Captain score as % of overall score 27.06%
Highest possible captain score 166
Captain score as % of your highest possible captain score 61.45%
Number of different captains 3
Number of different players 37
Most captained player Agüero (5)
Total score of autosubs 7
Total score of unused subs 36
Unused sub score as % of overall score 9.55%
Points spent on transfers 20

How does this compare to others?

[ajcairns]

Here's mine Stu:

Total captain score 110
Captain score had you swapped all C / VC 114
Captain score as % of overall score 23.71%
Highest possible captain score 214
Captain score as % of your highest possible captain score 51.40%
Number of different captains 3
Number of different players 25
Most captained player Agüero (5)
Total score of autosubs 33
Total score of unused subs 48
Unused sub score as % of overall score 10.34%
Points spent on transfers 4

All I can deduce from that is I have made relatively worse Captain decisions than you but my autosubs have done alright for me.

[ajcairns]

scratch the Captain pick comment - i misread it.

[rsn80]

Total captain score 104
Captain score had you swapped all C / VC 76
Captain score as % of overall score 22.13%
Highest possible captain score 202
Captain score as % of your highest possible captain score 51.49%
Number of different captains 2
Number of different players 25
Most captained player Agüero (4)
Total score of autosubs -1
Total score of unused subs 42
Unused sub score as % of overall score 8.94%
Points spent on transfers 4

[Droughton]

@Stu255 - putting aside all the cleverness of the statistical analysis... if that team link is really yours, you should drastically reduce the amount of point hits you take. 20 points in 7 GWs is quite a bit. I guess that is part of the game strategy no one talks about any more If you are so keen on using the data to calculate your future choices, at least extend your planning view. You'll find that point hits are part of the game, but can easily lead you to some sort of false security in making decisions that are supposed to over come the points (hits) loss and in some cases an insatiable hunger born from point chasing.

Hi IF, yeah I am aware that I am taking a lot of hits and it's a lot more than I would like.

Have you seen this post above?
viewtopic.php?p=3253545#p3253210

Basically I have taken 20pts of hits so far, but according to https://www.anewpla.net/fpl/report/ these transfers have resulted in an immediate return of 33pts.
The immediate return is calculated as the points of the players brought in minus the points of the players transferred out during the game that immediately follows the transfers.

That leaves me 13pts ahead once netted out. I was shocked to discover this as I assumed that I would be net negative.
So far (and it won't last) every hit (indeed every transfer) has resulted in an immediate net gain.

Hits and the captaincy seem to be two areas where I have done well (or have been very lucky) so far.

Where I am hemorrhaging points is my midfield, which has been drowning in an ocean of 1's and 2's, even though I have invested heavily there and played with 4 or 5 mids.
I'm going to play 5-3-2 or even 5-2-3 for a while to purge the rot. I've used 2 DM's but it's not even been those guys who have underperformed, it's been the Pogba's and Mkhitaryan's and Bernardo Silva's who cost £8m each.

I agree 20 is a lot at this stage. Immediate gain isn’t a true measure. I would path out the likely transfers and pts you scored without taking the hit until the point you remove the player you took the hit for.

E.G you take a hit this week to bring Kane in for Aguero. Then in gw15 you take Kane out.

GW 8-15 Kane (-4)
VS
GW8 Aguero. GW9-15 Kane

Here’s my info

Showing stats and ranking information for team Kane will Karius
Total captain score 126
Captain score had you swapped all C / VC 82
Captain score as % of overall score 27.21%
Highest possible captain score 196
Captain score as % of your highest possible captain score 64.29%
Number of different captains 2
Number of different players 30
Most captained player Agüero (5)
Total score of autosubs 10
Total score of unused subs 55
Unused sub score as % of overall score 11.88%
Points spent on transfers 12

[Stu255]

Team this weekend...

.......................................Hennesey (WOL)..........................................

Alonso (sou)...Wan-Bissaka (WOL)...Bennet (cry)...Azpilicueta (sou)...Duffy (WHU)

.......................Mane (MCI).....Hazzard (sou).... Maddison (EVE).....................

..............................Aguero (liv)...........Kane[C] (CAR).............................



Too much money in Azipilicueta v's Doherty for him to stay really. That would leave just one premium at the back in Alonso, but plenty of flexibility for fixtures other option is a second premium in Roberston or Trippier. But time will tell which way I get pushed...

Hopefully get through the international break with an FT as the next planned move is Mane + Kane Salah + Vardy.
I'm really enjoying seeing so many people selling Salah, just before his fixtures sweeten. Main concern is that I might not have funds for the Kane -> Salah move in which case the Azpilicueata move will be a hit to enable it.

Also, I have no idea why anyone is selling Aguero?
Injury rumours again? Because of 1x fixture?

All thoughts / scrutiny welcome...

[ajcairns]

The Aguero sale is probably due to owners moving from him to Kane I guess?