Dazza’s RMT

[Dazzab]

The plummet continues. 35 points for game week 20. Overall rank is now 572k. I tried a couple of things the last couple of weeks but obviously they haven’t / are not going to work. And don’t ask about goalkeepers. I’ve been sticking with predictions I’ve found and not changing keepers meaning I haven’t fielded one for 4 weeks now! I have 2 free transfers 0.8 in the bank and absolutely no idea what to do. Next week will be interesting.

[Oxford NZ]

Wilson and Gundog to Sigurdsson and Ings maybe, and a -4 for Hamer to Button. Button will get some pitch time now for a few weeks and you can decide on a new number 1 in a few weeks. A punt on Heaton would be OK as well but he is 4.8
Gundogan, Wilson and Fraser and a playing GK would be a starting point anyway.
Good luck I am sure others will have better ideas than me.

[Smurphy Paw]

Ouch!
First of all, prioritise a playing keeper. As ONZ says, Button is a good shout for the next few weeks. You’re better placed to know when Ryan is going to come back, but for now he’s a good place filler and is cheap.
At a glance the rest of your team looks fine, but you’re missing some of the in form players.
Defence: this next GW might be tough again with Liverpool playing City but hold your nerve. It’s a strong defence
Midfield: the main issue is that other players are in better form. Fraser isn’t and is expendable at the moment. Pogba, for example, is. Sterling will come good. Maybe not this week though, again, Liverpool v City will affect many so you won’t be alone.
Forwards: I wish that I had Aubameyang for this GW. Wilson, like Fraser, has been affected by a very difficult run. Success for Success was always hopeful, but he’s cheap.

As for ranking, it happens. GW8 I was finally making up ground and in to the top 200k. By GW17 I was outside 600k. This week I’m back where I was GW8. It still means that I am not consistent this year and others have a better finger on the pulse of the game than me. All I’m really saying is, don’t panic!

[dod]

You can't not have a keeper for 4 weeks . Just take a hit when you need to.

[Dazzab]

Cheers guys.
Will start with the keeper and then look at the rest. Fraser possibly. I’m unsure as to why he is missing out. Getting Ings back would be frustrating as I sold him the week he got a double, after he didn’t play for a few weeks. Did he not play the last game?
Thanks
Daz

[Dazzab]

I’ve done Hamer > Button.
Still looking at a midfield change. Is a Man United or Arsenal player worth a shot? Lingard, Herrera or Torreira? Anyone more expensive than Lingard would need a second transfer. I have Fraser at 6.1 and gundogan at 5.4
0.8 itb.

[Ruth_NZ]

No, you need to get some shape in your team, you have 8 playing attackers in a team that is defence heavy. The structure is all out of kilter.

Get Gundogan down to Camarasa or someone even cheaper first. Give Alonso GW22 and then downgrade him to someone like Digne or Shaw. And then you will have some cash banked and can look at attacker upgrades.

You can chase this week's players forever but for as long as your structure is so inefficient you are hurting yourself each and every week no matter what you do.

[Smurphy Paw]

I’d not count Success as a playing attacker, the suggestions make sense though

[Ruth_NZ]

No, didn't notice him. But I'd say the same anyway, just means you create a 4-4-2 hybrid rather than a 3-5-2.

[Dazzab]

Thanks Ruth and SP.
When you say structure is out are you referring to the personnel and their actual playing positions, fund distribution or both?
I can see I have a heavy defence with 3 premium priced players. Not needed obviously? Best to turn someone like Fraser or Richarlison into Pogba or the likes? Or Hazard/Stirling into Salah?

[Ruth_NZ]

Structure is always to do with fund distribution and in particular the cheapest players in your squad, your putative bench. Even if you can get some very nice cheap players (Camarasa, AWB, Jonny, Button, Kamara) that you may choose to play sometimes, as you certainly can this season, they are still doing their structural job of using as little of your budget as possible, allowing you to concentrate the available budget into your core starting players (what TF calls your 'fundamental team').

There are lots of tweaks and variations with structure but they all begin with that kind of concept. It's not a rule - you can vary from it sometimes - but when you vary from it you should know why. 18m bench spend (defined as the cost of my cheapest 4 players) is always my rough guide and it's only that high because I like 15 usable players as a rule rather than having someone that I will never play. My current putative bench cost me 16.8m (although most of them have risen in price since then).

Structure doesn't always help you pick the right players but it maximises your options. It's a kind of underlying factor that reduces 'drag' on your team if you can get it right.

[Smurphy Paw]

In my case I am carrying a bit more, my bench value being £17.1m. I could downgrade Patricio (or Lloris) to save a bit, but haven’t needed the extra cash as much as I’ve needed the transfers.
One difference this year is that the least expensive players are legitimate 1st eleven options (AWB & Doherty), and so my indulgence is actually Ings.
These are the weaknesses in my squad based on the points Ruth makes. I know they’re there and in time will sort them out.
Identifying the key half dozen or so players you want to build you team around for the foreseeable future is where I’d start though. It’ll help you understand which bit-part players you have to get rid off first.

[Dazzab]

Structure is always to do with fund distribution and in particular the cheapest players in your squad, your putative bench. Even if you can get some very nice cheap players (Camarasa, AWB, Jonny, Button, Kamara) that you may choose to play sometimes, as you certainly can this season, they are still doing their structural job of using as little of your budget as possible, allowing you to concentrate the available budget into your core starting players (what TF calls your 'fundamental team').


There are lots of tweaks and variations with structure but they all begin with that kind of concept. It's not a rule - you can vary from it sometimes - but when you vary from it you should know why. 18m bench spend (defined as the cost of my cheapest 4 players) is always my rough guide and it's only that high because I like 15 usable players as a rule rather than having someone that I will never play. My current putative bench cost me 16.8m (although most of them have risen in price since then).

Structure doesn't always help you pick the right players but it maximises your options. It's a kind of underlying factor that reduces 'drag' on your team if you can get it right.

Cheers Ruth!
That makes sense to me. I was looking at doing Gundagon > Camarasa for this current week but thought I’d hold off to try hear some opinions first. I’ll have 2 transfers for gw22.
With Liverpool doing so well Alonzo does look like the expensive player to move on after that.
10 days or so now to come up with a plan. I’ll post it when I work it out.

[Dazzab]

In my case I am carrying a bit more, my bench value being £17.1m. I could downgrade Patricio (or Lloris) to save a bit, but haven’t needed the extra cash as much as I’ve needed the transfers.
One difference this year is that the least expensive players are legitimate 1st eleven options (AWB & Doherty), and so my indulgence is actually Ings.
These are the weaknesses in my squad based on the points Ruth makes. I know they’re there and in time will sort them out.
Identifying the key half dozen or so players you want to build you team around for the foreseeable future is where I’d start though. It’ll help you understand which bit-part players you have to get rid off first.

Thanks SP.
Like I said to Ruth I’ll work out a plan and post it before next gw. I’ll try to make it a week by week plan with ideas of players I might be able to rotate through according to fixtures.

Won’t be making it today though as I’ll be putting the family in the car and driving them to Sydney shortly to watch a T20 cricket match. Should be fun!

Also I’ll need to have a decent plan by gw22 anyway as I’m off on a family holiday to Bali for 9 days shortly after (‘sigh’, not my idea of an enjoyable holiday but you have to keep the extended family happy sometimes!!) Hopefully the hotel has wifi so I can keep on fpl!

Cheers
Daz

[Ruth_NZ]

Good, will be interested.

When planning a re-shape, it often pays to take a period a few weeks in advance and ask yourself what you would like your team to look like during that period. Then you can work towards that with what you do now. That helps you not to focus too much on next week's fixtures (or even worse, last week's points).

For example, take the period GW25-30. That's a good period because the first big BGW will be in GW31 and once that occurs everything will be in flux. If you have a look at the GW25-30 fixtures you will see that the most favoured teams are Cardiff, Palace, Liverpool and Wolves. Brighton also have good defensive fixtures so you may need to do Hennessey Ryan at some point because you'll be without a GK again in a few weeks' time.

So...

• Palace are a decent defensive team and the best option is AWB. You already have him so that's a check. Then you could make a note that an attacker like Townsend, maybe, could be useful if you need someone in that price range. So he can be marked as a possible.
• For Liverpool you already have VVD & Robertson so that's a big check. The obvious one to add is Salah but GW23/24 would be fine. That should be a firm aim then.
• Cardiff offer a fantastic budget midfielder in the shape of Camarasa, cheap enough to be part of your nominal bench but good enough to start. So he should be a target. They also have a couple of cheap defenders with some goal threat (Bamba and especially Morrison) if you need a defender in that price range. So they can go on the possible list alongside Townsend.
• Wolves are better defensively than in attack and you already have the key man in Doherty. So that's another big check. You could very easily add a 2nd Wolves defender, Jonny is super-cheap and good and Boly is cheap and good. In attack, Jimenez is still well-priced for what he is and Jota was looking good before his injury and might be worth a look when he's fit again. So those 4 - Jonny, Boly, Jimenez, Jota - can go on the possible list as well.

Then you can go to the other end and look at the weak links in your squad, they will give an idea about who can be removed. I think you are right to identify Alonso (after GW22) because of value and in addition, with VVD & Robertson you have plenty of premium defence. Gundogan is another, as are Wilson and Fraser (Bournemouth's fixtures are quite terrible). Sterling is the most obvious player to go to make way for Salah. So, if you can make a plan to lose those 5 players over the next few weeks for some of the ones mentioned above (including Salah), whilst giving your squad a better structure then you should be onto a winner. It's then just a matter of sequencing the moves in the best way.

That's roughly how I'd approach it anyway. Good luck.

[Smurphy Paw]

Australia v India?
Last year India toured England and I caught the game near me in Bristol. I love the India fans. Every year Bristol hosts an ODI/T20 and it’s always a lively affair (we have a healthy work hard play hard philosophy down here), but the India supporters really did turn the dial up to 11.
The match play was good as well (India deservedly won) but the result was secondary to a very memorable day out.

Bali: Poor you

[Dazzab]

Australia v India?
Last year India toured England and I caught the game near me in Bristol. I love the India fans. Every year Bristol hosts an ODI/T20 and it’s always a lively affair (we have a healthy work hard play hard philosophy down here), but the India supporters really did turn the dial up to 11.
The match play was good as well (India deservedly won) but the result was secondary to a very memorable day out.

Bali: Poor you

Just got home. 1:20am.
No the Aus v India T20 is in a few days. The Indian supporters definitely know how to entertain! We are currently in the middle of a domestic T20 league called the Big Bash! It’s good fun. Tonight’s game was good. The team batting second lost early wickets and were behind the 8 ball for most of their innings. They ended up needing 20 off the last over then eventually needing 4 off the last ball. They only managed 2 and just fell short but the atmosphere for the last few overs was awesome. Could have done without the 5 hour round trip though!!
If you are interested Joe Root played for the Sydney side tonight. His dismissal was pretty ordinary. Wasn’t the only one for the night though.

[Smurphy Paw]

Yes, the headlines over here are that Root is having a pretty ordinary first Big Bash. Buttler’s a bit special in the shortest form of the game though, isn’t he?

[Dazzab]

Yes, the headlines over here are that Root is having a pretty ordinary first Big Bash. Buttler’s a bit special in the shortest form of the game though, isn’t he?

Yes he is. He plays for the same Sydney side as Root. His game had its moments last night too. His dismissal was quite rare. His judgement on a return for a run out while keeping was amazing though.
Highlights here if you are interested.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aCdZeqWcZL0

[Smurphy Paw]

Cheers

Have you seen the scores and scorers tonight (morning)? Wilson and Fraser have done the business for you!

[Dazzab]

Yeah it’s nice to have a couple of players get decent points. Haven’t seen the goals though. Shame wolves couldn’t hold out palace.
Currently on 46pts with VVD, Robertson and Sterling to come. Plus Button to sub in and any bonus points from the Bournemouth players.

Hopefully I can sit down and create a plan today. After Ruth’s post I know who to change/consider, it’s just getting the order right I might struggle with. Will see how I go anyway.

[Ruth_NZ]

That was just an example of how I would go about it, Dazza.

Do you have access to a decent fixture ticker? That can help a fair bit in planning. This one seems OK if you need one.

[Dazzab]

Thanks Ruth that should help a lot.

[Dazzab]

OK, so I've had a bit of a go at creating a plan to undertake over the next few weeks. This is how it currently looks. Please comment on anything that stands out to you or any alternatives you feel may be better.

My current team for quick reference with players I am looking to offload in bold is:

Button, Hennessey
Alonzo, VVD, Robertson, Doherty, AWB
Hazard, Sterling, Richarlison, Fraser, Gundagon
Wilson, Aubameyang, Success

0.8itb


GW22
Gundagon > Camarasa. This will bank a bit of cash plus give me a good cheap midfielder who gets plenty of time on the field. I'm just not sure about his injury as he is currently flagged. He would be my 5th and cheap midfielder who does have a reasonable run of fixtures.

GW23
Alonzo > Digne. Alonzo is one of 3 premium defenders in my team which probably isn't necessary and he is also preventing cash being put into my midfield. I feel he is the one to go as my Liverpool players are looking good. Everton have a reasonable fixture run and from what I have seen Digne can be reasonably attacking for a defencer too. Also, his price will allow me to not feel like I have to play a premium every week. He can rotate the bench if necessary.

Wison > Jiminez. Bournmouth's fixtures are pretty tough and Jiminez seems to keep points ticking over and also has a reasonable run of fixtures.

GW24
Sterling > Salah. I'm not 100% if this is the week. I could get Salah in GW23 but Sterling plays Huddersfield then and that could be a chance of good points, So I thought I'd wait until this GW. The move to sell Alonzo will be the main fund raiser for this but all previous transfers will bank some cash.

GW25
Hennessey > Ryan. I'm hoping I can wait until this week to make this transfer. It will mean I wont have to use a transfer on it or a hit in the previous weeks and it will mean Australia has done well at the Asian Cup! The final is 2 Feb. If Ryan is back earlier then I will be without a keeper again forcing me to make the move earlier.

From here on I will be able to assess my team and see how much cash I will have left. This will then allow me to work out what to do with Fraser. Things about this plan that I will note are:
1. I will not have any City players in my squad at this stage, something I thought I couldn't do. Depending on my cash situation this could be where I go with Fraser. Or, depending on form Anderson could come in.
2. Success will probably sit in S3 the whole time. 1 point per week is all I would be expecting him to make. My cash situation could let me upgrade him but I haven't worked out what I'll have by then. This will depend on what I do with Fraser.

Again, if there is anything glaring about this plan please let me know. I am hoping to finish with a better team structure but also pick up some more in form players.
Cheers
Daz

[Ruth_NZ]

Button, Ryan
Doherty, AWB, VVD, Robertson, Digne
Hazard, Salah, Richarlison, Fraser, Camarasa
Jimenez, Aubameyang, Success

Yes, I think that is excellent!

That creates a 4-4-2 Hybrid structure. Essentially the players marked in RED are the core unit and then you have to play 2 from 4 out of Doherty, AWB, Digne & Camarasa every week. I checked that rotation and it works really well and will even give you a 1st sub with a decent fixture every week.

So now you have a basic plan that works well and can move to the 2nd stage. Which players/teams are you missing? The one that stands out to me is United, they are a different team under OGS and also have a lot of good fixtures. So, can you fit an United attacker in? As it happens, you probably could. Rashford is in fine form and looks like getting a lot of minutes. He only costs 7.2m, so only 0.8m more than Jimenez. Could you find that 0.8m? Sure. Wolves have a really nice fixture run from GW23 and you could easily have 2 Wolves defenders. So if you took Jonny instead of Digne that would save 0.9m, enough to get Rashford instead of Jimenez. Or if you want to spread the rotation then Bednarek would also work, Soton are improving under a new manager too and at 3.9m he is crazy cheap for a starting defender. That extra saving could help when you look at Fraser later on.

So now you have your first combination question: Digne & Jimenez or Jonny/Bednarek & Rashford. That is an interesting one to look at. Bearing in mind that Jimenez/Rashford would be part of the core unit whereas Digne/Jonny/Bednarek would be part of the rotation unit then personally I'd go the Rashford route. If in doubt, prioritise the core. But there is a good argument for either combination.

Good job anyway, it's an excellent plan. Will be interesting to see what SP makes of it.

PS I wouldn't worry at all about Success, he can be your permanent S3 as you say and shouldn't be upgraded, his main function is to not use much budget. Kamara would probably be a better alternative but as you already have Success that transfer would be really low down the priority list and certainly isn't worth a hit.

[Smurphy Paw]

Dazza, bear in mind I wrote the following at the same time Ruth was writing his post and I have just seen his post in preview! I’m posting it in full as it offers a slightly different perspective, but essentially we’re saying the same thing...

At a first read the changes look logical. Aubameyang, Hazard and Salah are three good captaincy options.

Don’t disregard, but don’t overly focus on Ruth’s point about structure. The sting in the initial post was because Ruth didn’t see Success in your squad. With him and Camarasa, your first transfer, you’re then only looking at tweaking your structure - evolution not revolution.
You probably do have one extra premium defender. So do I, I prefer more cash at the back to Ruth but it’s a personal preference thing not a fundamental flaw & FWIW, I am also looking to downgrade Alonso;
and in Richarlison, Fraser and Gundogan, three midfielders who are great when in form/playing, but scope to downgrade at least one (because cheap defenders are viable options).

I think you’re right to consider your Bournemouth players. Their run is not great. To counter that, as they showed yesterday they still carry attacking threat. If I had Fraser at the moment I might hold for a while longer to see if they turn their form around. This is partially motivated by not seeing many other options in the same price bracket, partially that you have higher priorities. I have even contemplated bringing Fraser in for Anderson but discounted it. In each case it’s a sideways move, but Fraser is less expensive. Wilson to another attacker does make sense, but I don’t know that Jiménez is that much of a better option. Maybe consider that?

Back to the defence, be careful with Digne. Everton seem to be unable to buy a clean sheet at the moment. Digne gets forward, but you’d be buying him almost exclusively for his attacking threat. If they can turn that around the upcoming run of easier fixtures is a good place to start. Just make sure you’re not only chasing a repeat of his two-goal-in-a-game output over Christmas.

The other point to consider is your rotations. All players have tougher and easier fixtures. You want to avoid picking a squad that looks best on paper, but where the good games all come together and then they all have tough fixtures at the same time. I did this too often in the first half of the season and had too many boom/bust game weeks. The planner Ruth shared yesterday looks good (thanks Ruth, link saved!), and there are sites like Fantasy Football Fix that you have to pay for but do the leg work for you. On paper all your moves look logical, but make sure you don’t have 15 viable options one week and only 8 the next! (And my one addition is to acknowledge that Ruth has checked this for you whilst I only asked the question!)

[Smurphy Paw]

Oh, one addition. Ruth, I don’t agree with you on the Doherty/Jonny double up. I have Doherty and Patricio and seek to avoid playing them together. The Wolves defence isn’t currently robust enough to justify playing both in all but the easiest fixtures. It’s the reason why I still have Lloris in goal, I can’t risk both together

[Dazzab]

Ruth and SP.

Firstly thank you for the time you put in to analysing and commenting on my plan. As you mentioned SP the fact Ruth has already checked how the fixtures line up with rotation of players is well acknowledged, impressive and highly appreciated!

Ruth, I like your point on a Man U player and think Rashford might be a good idea. Reading both of your replies has now got me leaning away from Digne. Looking at a cheaper option in Jonny or Bednarek might be where I go. If I take the second Wolves player in Jonny I assume he would sit behind Doherty in line of starting or even bench position? Bednarek could give an extra option having the different fixture each week. Extra cash is always nice too.

No City in there either. An issue or is rotation it worth their risk anymore?

Thanks again for your replies. Early night tonight as last night killed me. Keen to get up and watch city v pool.

Daz

[Ruth_NZ]

Yes, Jonny would always sit behind Doherty. I have more confidence in the Wolves defence than SP does because their underlying numbers are very strong. But you are probably wise to consider Bednarek instead, 0.4m cheaper and works perfectly well in the rotation. He's an established Polish international so there is really no surprise that Hasenhüttl is picking him regularly.

With City, you have a call to make. Maybe it is worth waiting for Mendy? Robertson Mendy might be valid later on. But otherwise it is a matter of who you would lose. With your (new) squad as it stands you will always have Hazard Sterling or Aubameyang Aguero as a one-click option if you decide that's the way to go. So no, I wouldn't be worried about it right now.

[Patrician]

Thanks for the heads up on Bednarek Ruth, I been agonising over my next set of transfers and couldn't make anything work until you alerted me to this little beauty.