Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

[Stemania]

Roll up, roll up, yet another year of the meandering geeky stats-based group-thinking RMT is here! Yay!

As usual, the mystical Sammy The Crab owns nominal reigns (it being his RMT originally), and soon will be time to start training all of our FPL strategy muscles once again.



A new year, a new title, as has become the trend. Statistical Thought Cave, Splendiferous Tactical Conversation, already the thesaurus is looking dog-eared. Just the 652 pages clocked up now in the five years of running! Ever more embarrassing.

Link to previous threads: 2017/18, 2016/17, 2015/16, 2014/15, 2013/14.

Special mention to Mav3rick, who I'm sad to read is taking a year (and hopefully only one year ) off from FPL - he's been an extraordinary contributor to previous threads from their very inception and has been arguably the best poster on FISO FPL over the last decade. Hopefully that particular crustacean will still pop his head in from time to time. For the rest of us, feel free to post any links/articles that might be of interest and prepare for that RMTing fest now the game has launched.

Don't forget to join the all-new Members-only League: https://goo.gl/forms/YQb9kpxc4Z6JFE9D3


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The STC Bookshelf


Key Texts:
Fpldiscovery - Invaluable weekly player ownership/average scores data etc
Fplstatistics - Historically most reliable price change site, no registration
FantasyFootballFix - Alternative price change site, registration required
Understat - Comprehensive xG database
Ben Crellin's Spreadsheet - Legendary DGW information source
FPL Statistico - Individual FPL team analyser
Live FPL - Live gameweek rank calculator, plus other goodies
FantasyFootballScout - No introduction required


Main Catalogue:
Squawka - Stats resource and comparison matrix
MathematicallySafe - Peter Blake's FPL statistical analysis blog
PLFantasy - Statistical blog by Chris Glover
MackayAnalytics - Blog specializing in xG comparison
Statsbomb - Legendary stats articles, specialists in xG
Differentgame - Paul Riley's blog on xG analysis
Eighty Five Points - Excellent blog by Laurie Shaw
FPLAcademica - FPL blog by four 'twitter enthusiasts'
FantasyFutopia - Blog by our own Tom Whelan (notably containing a great guide to Python in FPL)
Paul Riley, Mike Croom & Tim Bayer - Data resource tableaux
Transfermarkt & Football-Lineups - Detailed player/team statistics, penalty/injury records, formations etc
Worldfootball & Soccerstats - Historical PL info
Myfootballfacts - Historic team penalty information (seems to have stopped updating)
PremierFantasyTools - FPL tool site, inc alternative HoF
FPL Analytics - FPL analysis site
FPL Review - Points projection site based on understat xModel, inc "luck" quantifier
Teamfill - Customisable team optimiser site by our own Sneakyone
FPL Archives - FPL data from selected previous seasons
Football-data - Historic bookies odds for the PL
FPL Reddit - What it says on the tin


Online Collection:
https://twitter.com/11tegen11?ref_src=t ... r%5Eauthor - 11tegen11
https://twitter.com/FPLSecrets - FPL Secrets
https://twitter.com/Lucid_Analytics - Lucid Analytics


Defunct ancient texts:
The3rdTurd's data - Old resource tableaux
http://11tegen11.net/
http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/
DeepxG - Blog flirting with xG (you have to dig deep for relevant articles)

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The STC Workshop


Working Prototypes:
Understat Extrapolations - Mav3rick's Solver algorithm for picking the best squad based on projections
FFS Extrapolations - Stemania's modification of the above for picking the best squad based on FFS projections (inc 6-week)
Defensive rotation sheet - FranckKessie's rotation planner

[dino1980]

We go again!! I think Maverick still plans to play draft so hopefully he’ll still pop by on Thursday/Friday and drop some knowledge. He’ll be badly missed.

When I have time I’m going to take a look at the price list and travel through understat to see if I can spot any underpriced players.

[Spinynorman]

I see it's all gone live then.

[Aldershot Rejects]

So anyone else going with a very expensive defence?

[blahblah]

So anyone else going with a very expensive defence?

I'm more on those not at WC, atm.

Not looked at fixtures either, let alone EL\CL stuff.

[Stemania]

So anyone else going with a very expensive defence?

Ha ha. On the contrary so far - I've had one quick go, having not really analysed anything too thoroughly, and ended up with unusually spread out funds in a usual 343.

9m
6.5m, 5m, 5m, (4.5m, 4.5m)
10m, 8.5m, 7.5m, 7.5m, (4.5m)
11m, 9.5m, 7m

[Aldershot Rejects]

So anyone else going with a very expensive defence?

I'm more on those not at WC, atm.

Not looked at fixtures either, let alone EL\CL stuff.

I'm in a similar place re WC; probably going to ignore EL/CL for the initial sprint start but will come into play around wildcard.

[Aldershot Rejects]

So anyone else going with a very expensive defence?

Ha ha. On the contrary so far - I've had one quick go, having not really analysed anything too thoroughly, and ended up with unusually spread out funds in a usual 343.

9m
6.5m, 5m, 5m, (4.5m, 4.5m)
10m, 8.5m, 7.5m, 7.5m, (4.5m)
11m, 9.5m, 7m

That could work, my initial impression is that there is some decent value in the 7-9m range. No Salah, I guess?

Mind you that is far from the lots of cheap defender set-up.

[blahblah]

So anyone else going with a very expensive defence?

I'm more on those not at WC, atm.

Not looked at fixtures either, let alone EL\CL stuff.

I'm in a similar place re WC; probably going to ignore EL/CL for the initial sprint start but will come into play around wildcard.

I meant the Qualifiers, which start before the season starts....

One of our lot are playing a Scottish lot, I think

[Stemania]

No idea on Salah at this point - need a lot to come together, but my instinct is probably not when, say, Firmino is a whopping 3.5m cheaper.

I tend to work my way through in search for value in my first run, going through one team at a time and adding anyone I think looks good at their price. Then worry about fitting in the big guns later when the cheapies to fund them become more obvious.

I've only looked really thoroughly at the keepers so far. Gotta love Leno at 5m. My joy at Fabianski's 4.5m (who is the only other GK who has really caught my eye) was soon tempered by a look at their early fixtures, which I can only describe as torrential.

My early impression is that the 4.5-5m defensive range looks slightly stronger than last year, and big sides' nailed defs seem mostly 6m+, when maybe one or two could have been 5.5m - Arsenal aside. Cedric is already calling again at 4.5m - Dann if fit and picked too at 4.5, that Wolves guy Saiss pointed out in the main forum that might be an OOP CM for 4.5m - lots of midrange teams with defs at 4.5m, maybe Newcastle, including the possibility of an Everton defender at 4.5 - would be nice if it happens. Maybe Matip at 5, or Keane. Imagine if Kolasinac gets picked by the new manager at 5m! Going up, a Chelsea CB at 5.5m maybe, even a United one if it becomes obvious who will start. Alonso discount. There looks a reasonable amount all through defence to be fair.

On glance I initially like the 7-8.5m mid range with Dilva, Siggy, Pogba, Willian, Mkhi, maybe even Lingard if he becomes first choice. A new manager for Haz and he could work out at 10.5, I don't initially dislike KDB still at 10m - thought he'd be 10.5 min. I wonder if Mahrez will be a starter. Haven't spotted anything screaming at me in the cheap range yet, but haven't looked too deeply. I don't know much of Neves, but had expected him to be 5.5m not 5m.

The one big thing looks like the return of the 5.5m strikers! A few potential starters for the lowly teams pre-transfer activity, and some decent-looking 6m guys that might have been 6.5m on last year's pricing. Initially I didn't like Arnie as a striker (especially as they're being constantly linked with one), but 7m started to feel decent in the context of everyone else - pity about the fixtures again. Firmino on pens looks decent to me if they don't buy a striker, perhaps Lacazette if he's a starter. The 11m point looks really interesting - lots of alternatives to move to-and-fro on. Kane at 12.5 looks priced exactly right to me and could turn out a tricky one.

Interesting set of prices, I like them. Another good job by FPL methinks.

[Beerfuelledman]

I hate the thread title. It sounds haughty to me. Also, "Strategic" Thinking implies that elsewhere in FISO there is "Non-Strategic" thinking and Id get along better with a less immodest heading.

[Stemania]

I hate the thread title. It sounds haughty to me. Also, "Strategic" Thinking implies that elsewhere in FISO there is "Non-Strategic" thinking and Id get along better with a less immodest heading.

Ha ha, brilliant.

[Finisher1]

Nice to meet you all again, it's good to be back in this thread

[blahblah]

I used to do this Money Distribution thang, then hoofed it off going big up top or somewhere, but I may try and be good this season

5 4.5 (Pope\Heaton, with a move to Anfield, and Mcthng at Soton)

6 6 5.5 4.5 4.5 (Robertson, Bellend, Tomkins )

10.5 9.5 9 7 4.5 (Sanchez, Sane, Mahrez if the Citeh moves happens, Mkh)

11, 7, 5 (Aubething, Arnie)

Or
9.5
26.5
40.5
23

.5 spare.

[bigcliff2]

I just threw together this:

8.5 pairing GKs
4 x 4.5 defs and a 4.0
Salah, Mhkta, Pogba, Walcott, 4.5
Kane, Aguero, Zaha

3-4-3 every week

[Tacalabala]

The STC League of last year has now merged with last season's Veterans League, into the new Memebers League, register here for the code.

[Spinynorman]

The STC League of last year has now merged with last season's Veterans League, into the new Memebers League, register here for the code.

Very impressed with entry portal thingy.

[snakzz]

Here we go!

[gallus]

After a horrific 17/18 season, my team is back and stronger than ever!

I have a new brave strategy for this season - I will pick 15 good starters and bench boost in GW 1. Why I think this is a good idea:

a) It allows me to pick a bench boost squad with no drawbacks - I always wildcard in GW 2 or 3 anyway, so if the budget distribution turns out to be suboptimal there's no harm done.
b) It gets the chip out of the way. Bench boost is a trap chip imo. It's easy to take hits and/or compromise your team for an optimal boost, which then brings you net 5 points when you take hits into account.
c) It gives me a chance to take a couple of punts on cheaper players. There are always some hidden gems in the 5.0.6.0 range, and having them in your team since GW 1 could be a great advantage.

[Beerfuelledman]

It's brave New thinking! I like it!!

[Stemania]

c) It gives me a chance to take a couple of punts on cheaper players. There are always some hidden gems in the 5.0.6.0 range, and having them in your team since GW 1 could be a great advantage.

I've no huge qualm in playing BB very close to a WC - certainly a good way to avoid a long term lopsided distribution - but the word 'hidden' is the key here surely! These cheap gems tend not to materialize until a few weeks in in my experience - the chances of successfully finding the good ones in GW1 seems very low to me - and even the aim is to find them and you do manage it, surely that's at odds with the plan of then wildcarding them out?

So I find it very difficult to support the idea - managing to field 15 in GW1 with all the World Cup related doubts and unknown formations/lineups/unknown fitness levels will be hard enough imo, never mind being able to know who the good defenses/cheapies or even mid pricers will be in GW1. But I'm really not one for a planned very early first wildcard in the first place, and the proposition of an very early BB probably is a little less unattractive in that setting.

[Stemania]

Interestingly, the DGW picture might be dramatically different this year with the FA cup semis and CL semis at slightly different times, so everyone's strategies might need rethinking! Looks like no DGW34 or 37 are possible, edit: in fact it appears to be

BLANKS GW27 (LC Final)
BLANKS GW31 (FA QFs)
DOUBLE GW32
BLANKS GW33 (FA SFs)
DOUBLE GW35

as per the gospel according to crellin. So a significantly earlier pair of DGWs than usual, which means any wildcard/chips played around then would have an extra two GWs of wanted or unwanted effect to consider.

As usual, any team getting to the final of the LC plus the SF of the league cup would require a third DGW somewhere (and somewhere that would have to annoy UEFA by the looks, or unlikely pulled forward to GW25).

[Sutter Kane]

c) It gives me a chance to take a couple of punts on cheaper players. There are always some hidden gems in the 5.0.6.0 range, and having them in your team since GW 1 could be a great advantage.

I've no huge qualm in playing BB very close to a WC - certainly a good way to avoid a long term lopsided distribution - but the word 'hidden' is the key here surely! These cheap gems tend not to materialize until a few weeks in in my experience - the chances of successfully finding the good ones in GW1 seems very low to me - and even the aim is to find them and you do manage it, surely that's at odds with the plan of then wildcarding them out?

So I find it very difficult to support the idea - managing to field 15 in GW1 with all the World Cup related doubts and unknown formations/lineups/unknown fitness levels will be hard enough imo, never mind being able to know who the good defenses/cheapies or even mid pricers will be in GW1. But I'm really not one for a planned very early first wildcard in the first place, and the proposition of an very early BB probably is a little less unattractive in that setting.

Hello everyone again. Not much time seems to have past...I think the World Cup doubts are an opportunity to select players in pre-season that are playing regularly because of the world cup players being late back. And they'll be cheaper players - it shouldn't be too difficult to analyse but I suppose that's a discussion for very close to the 11th August. I think I need to have Salah to begin with in any case.

[Smurphy Paw]

It seems like only yesterday we were discussing the merits and demerits of a GW1 BB and whether or not to pick Salah.

Evening all

[Smurphy Paw]

Interestingly, the DGW picture might be dramatically different this year with the FA cup semis and CL semis at slightly different times, so everyone's strategies might need rethinking! Looks like no DGW34 or 37 are possible, edit: in fact it appears to be

BLANKS GW27 (LC Final)
BLANKS GW31 (FA QFs)
DOUBLE GW32
BLANKS GW33 (FA SFs)
DOUBLE GW35

as per the gospel according to crellin. So a significantly earlier pair of DGWs than usual, which means any wildcard/chips played around then would have an extra two GWs of wanted or unwanted effect to consider.

As usual, any team getting to the final of the LC plus the SF of the league cup would require a third DGW somewhere (and somewhere that would have to annoy UEFA by the looks, or unlikely pulled forward to GW25).

Hmm, one of the issues with the late DGW was that City had already tied up the League nd there was little to play for elsewhere. Perhaps the earlier Blanks and Doubles means that they’ll be more important in terms of key outcomes; and by extrapolation, more players are more likely to be ‘needed’ for both games; which makes them easier to spot and pick - it’ll be a maintenance factor against peers, but otherwise a way to rise up the rankings

[Stemania]

That's a very good point!

The first DGW 32 would still be the midweek before the FA cup semis, but 35 just leads into another PL game (and it's then SGW36 that might be most likely to see rotation with the CL semis following that).

[From4corners]

The STC League of last year has now merged with last season's Veterans League, into the new Memebers League, register here for the code.

Great, thank youuu!!

Looking forward to kicking off in top gear again.

[Oxford NZ]

Welcome back. I have not missed it but I suppose i had better have a go at selecting a squad.
442 so far, with 0 itb
GK 5.0 + 4.0
DF 6.0 + 6.0 + 4.5 + 4.5 + 4.5
MD 10.5 + 8.5 + 7.0 + 6.5 + 4.5
Fw 12.5 + 10.5 + 6.5

[Mav3rick]

I had a browse through the price list, Coleman stood out to me at 5.5 as a defensive pick, and I'd be hard pushed if setting up a squad not to try to make Mkhitaryan the 4th mid at 7.0, feels like a mis-price in comparison to say sess at only 0.5 less.

There's a fairly hefty premium on both Kane and Salah over the other super premiums, I can't really imagine a good balance involving both, one should be pickable long term, but they might be a bit overpriced in comparison to their peers. Kane certainly I don't think is a full 1.5 better than a playing Aguero certainly, even Aubameyang on pens would test my resolve.

Salah probably does have a more clear advantage over his peers, short world cup too, I'd probably find it hard to avoid picking him.

Keeper prices look to have been stable, DDG apart, so the same arguments remain there, defenders generally took a price cut it seems, although it's unfortunate that PVA is 5.5, Kolasinac at 5.0 could be a steal if playing wing back. I think I'd find it fairly easy to pick a back 4 if fillers were available up front.

Haven't really looked through the base price players yet, but id imagine any that are found will as usual decide a starting formation.

With the defenders available at 5.5 or below and with tasty looking 7.5 or below mids, I could imagine any sniff of a 5.0 striker will set off 352/442s galore (it certainly would with me) however that doesn't look likely to happen so I'd probably end up on a basic 343 with Austin in F3, at this stage anyway, an 11.0 F1 and then a big question mark in F2.

Salah, Miki plus 2 TBD in midfield and a standard 5.5, 5, 3x4.5 defensive mix for now. I'm not sure if Alonso would make the cut, he would be on my radar, but I'd probably be looking for some value elsewhere to accomodate him (or any) 6+ defender.

That's the crucial thing right now anyway, looking for underpriced players (either by FPL or engineered by a transfer) and knowing how you might apply the savings to betterment elsewhere.

In that vein, I think there's a definite discussion about the premium defenders to be had. I know it nominally "wastes" 0.5 of budget and a spot, but I'd be tempted by 5.5 defenders over that third striker especially if the likes of Coleman aren't making your initial drafts.

[Stemania]

Changed your mind on playing yet?

In other news, I've added an STC resource list to the OP with a list of often referred to links and useful stuff/old favourites. Everyone, be encouraged to mention any other sites you use or if you spot any glaring omissions or if you find new ones.