Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

[MPTree]

Some interesting squad structure decisions look imminent with KDB apparently back in training (whatever that turns out to mean) and Arnie reasonably soon going to hit a super fixture run. (Never mind Mendy potentially reappearing.)

Are those the two everyone else has a strong eye on for the near future, and if so, how would your structure change to accommodate them (if at all)?

I would assume Mitro to Arnie will be a very popular move in a couple of weeks time for those with him, and for a structure like mine a Mane/Trippier to KDB/Robertson swap is always possible if KDB cannot be squeezed in by any other means; but those two count for a reasonably small percentage of all cases, so what are we each thinking?

Has anyone thought about a mad future forward line with all of Salah/Haz/Mane/KDB/Kun? Would only seem possible to me via a very skinny defence indeed (even with the cheapness of AWB, Bennett, potentially a WHU defender and a Jimenez/Ings too), so looks an unlikely route.

Yes, the mad forward line is certainly tempting and I've looked at it too. Assuming a similar TV, seems like you've got room in defence for 2 x ~5.0, 2 x ~4.5, 1 x AWB. Keepers at ~8.5, and you're committed to Jiminez and Ings alongside Aguero.

With value coming from AWB, TAA, and even the likes of Doherty, (all of which I already have) I don't think it's a terrible plan by any stretch, but squad balance suffers for sure. You miss out on the value of an Alonso/Mendy type, deny yourself Arnie, and if either of Jiminings (if you'll allow me to coin such a term) needs replacing, you'll probably want an upgrade that you won't be able to afford.

Will probably stick to the simplicity of two straight swaps, when the time comes: Mané to KDB & Trippier to Mendy. Although keeping both Alonso and Mendy does leave me somewhat stuck with Jiminings, but maybe that's just okay. Jiminez looks like a season keeper to me anyhow.

The biggest question for me this week is what to do with Salah. I'd like to hold, but he'll drop tonight and another blank vs City could very well see him drop again over the international break. Contemplating a one-week swap to Son & back, but suspect the most sensible play is just to hold.

[baganboy]

Some interesting squad structure decisions look imminent with KDB apparently back in training (whatever that turns out to mean) and Arnie reasonably soon going to hit a super fixture run. (Never mind Mendy potentially reappearing.)
Are those the two everyone else has a strong eye on for the near future, and if so, how would your structure change to accommodate them (if at all)?
I would assume Mitro to Arnie will be a very popular move in a couple of weeks time for those with him, and for a structure like mine a Mane/Trippier to KDB/Robertson swap is always possible if KDB cannot be squeezed in by any other means; but those two count for a reasonably small percentage of all cases, so what are we each thinking?

As for Squad - no, my squad is built for that structure actually (and Mane KDB as well) . But that will leave me with LIV players only at defence. i.e. Mane out / KDB in. And that is something I am unsure about. It's not about cover alone. I think Mane can get a hatful of goals this season.
But Arnautovic absolutely. 100%. Never had Mitrovic, but for my money, ( and 7 games seems enough of an indication that) if there would be only one pick at ~7m mark, Arnautovic would be it.
There would be no team morale issue I think - Pellegrini is an excellent man-manager. WHM seems settling in nicely.

Has anyone thought about a mad future forward line with all of Salah/Haz/Mane/KDB/Kun? Would only seem possible to me via a very skinny defence indeed (even with the cheapness of AWB, Bennett, potentially a WHU defender and a Jimenez/Ings too), so looks an unlikely route.

That's very tough. 5 premiums?
In fact - do listen to the last WGTA podcast. It starts with the assessment of even the costly 4 - Salah/Hazard/Kane/Kun - if that is possible.

[ricardo68]

Cavern dwellers, Salah has lost 1mill owners from his peak and only 0.1 value, how goes that work??

[Oxford NZ]

Salah s due a drop, fffix are predicting tonight but we will see.
They are also predicting an Aguero price fall that I could do without.

[Stemania]

Cavern dwellers, Salah has lost 1mill owners from his peak and only 0.1 value, how goes that work??

Drops work as a percentage of ownership (usually 10%), and the tally is taken from the last price change/reset - so he would have required roughly a quarter of a million NET non-wildcard transfers per drop (and had to start by canceling out the initial 75k NET transfers in, some wildcard, to start with).

He's now dropped twice and has been sold by around 1m players at his peak - meaning the percentage of those selling who were on wildcard should have been around 50% for it to make sense (so 500k wilcard transfers out). It's complicated by the fact that there have been new managers added to the game every week, but this seems pretty plausibly to me given there have been around 2m wildcards played from a starting point of 54% overall ownership.

[The Username]

Some interesting squad structure decisions look imminent with KDB apparently back in training (whatever that turns out to mean) and Arnie reasonably soon going to hit a super fixture run. (Never mind Mendy potentially reappearing.)

Are those the two everyone else has a strong eye on for the near future, and if so, how would your structure change to accommodate them (if at all)?

I would assume Mitro to Arnie will be a very popular move in a couple of weeks time for those with him, and for a structure like mine a Mane/Trippier to KDB/Robertson swap is always possible if KDB cannot be squeezed in by any other means; but those two count for a reasonably small percentage of all cases, so what are we each thinking?

Has anyone thought about a mad future forward line with all of Salah/Haz/Mane/KDB/Kun? Would only seem possible to me via a very skinny defence indeed (even with the cheapness of AWB, Bennett, potentially a WHU defender and a Jimenez/Ings too), so looks an unlikely route.

Ill have a look at how KDB is getting on tomorrow, id really like him at that price point.

The option i am considering is loosing Kun and Richarlson Firmino and KDB. Id have to downgrade Fraser to a rotter too and sport a 4-4-2. Im sitting on two free transfers.

Leave me with

Hart/Hammer

Roberstson/Alonso/Mendy/Bennet/AWB

Maddison/Salah/KDB/Hazard/4.4

Mitro (Arnie next week), Firmino, Kamara

Compromise would be loosing Aguero, but i think id back Firmino and KDB to better Aguero and Richarlson until Dec. I have a nagging doubt with Aguero we have been very lucky to have gotten the starting mins he has up until now.

[Stemania]

Good luck all btw. Feels like a big gameweek this one with it being the last of the tough big-guns-playing-each-other weeks to get through for those who've stuck, especially in view of the Kane bandwaggon, and the opposite for those who have jumped.

Roughly a 50% ownership swing between Kun and Kane in the top 10k this week (Kun down 24%, Kane up 27%)!

No extreme scores today please!

[Beerfuelledman]

Some interesting squad structure decisions look imminent with KDB apparently back in training (whatever that turns out to mean) and Arnie reasonably soon going to hit a super fixture run. (Never mind Mendy potentially reappearing.)

Are those the two everyone else has a strong eye on for the near future, and if so, how would your structure change to accommodate them (if at all)?

Has anyone thought about a mad future forward line with all of Salah/Haz/Mane/KDB/Kun? Would only seem possible to me via a very skinny defence indeed (even with the cheapness of AWB, Bennett, potentially a WHU defender and a Jimenez/Ings too), so looks an unlikely route.

Ings to Arnie might interest me if I downgrade Ederson to Ryan which is a possibility although Id have another 0.3m to find.

Ive been looking at how to get KdB into my team with Salah, Hazard & Aguero and am struggling to do it with Richarlison never mind Mane

[Smurphy Paw]

Some interesting squad structure decisions look imminent with KDB apparently back in training (whatever that turns out to mean) and Arnie reasonably soon going to hit a super fixture run. (Never mind Mendy potentially reappearing.)

Are those the two everyone else has a strong eye on for the near future, and if so, how would your structure change to accommodate them (if at all)?

I would assume Mitro to Arnie will be a very popular move in a couple of weeks time for those with him, and for a structure like mine a Mane/Trippier to KDB/Robertson swap is always possible if KDB cannot be squeezed in by any other means; but those two count for a reasonably small percentage of all cases, so what are we each thinking?

Has anyone thought about a mad future forward line with all of Salah/Haz/Mane/KDB/Kun? Would only seem possible to me via a very skinny defence indeed (even with the cheapness of AWB, Bennett, potentially a WHU defender and a Jimenez/Ings too), so looks an unlikely route.

Ill have a look at how KDB is getting on tomorrow, id really like him at that price point.

The option i am considering is loosing Kun and Richarlson Firmino and KDB. Id have to downgrade Fraser to a rotter too and sport a 4-4-2. Im sitting on two free transfers.

Leave me with

Hart/Hammer

Roberstson/Alonso/Mendy/Bennet/AWB

Maddison/Salah/KDB/Hazard/4.4

Mitro (Arnie next week), Firmino, Kamara

Compromise would be loosing Aguero, but i think id back Firmino and KDB to better Aguero and Richarlson until Dec. I have a nagging doubt with Aguero we have been very lucky to have gotten the starting mins he has up until now.

I'm really interested in this switch as well (in my case with Fraser not Richarlison). Having jumped ship fro Kun to Kane this week I know that it'll delay/extend the evolution of my forward line by a week, by which time I hope that KDB is back in contention. The saving between KDB and Sterling is significant.
I'm a bit over budget and would have to also downgrade elsewhere. Alternatively I can exactly afford Vardy rather than Firminho.

[The Username]

Some interesting squad structure decisions look imminent with KDB apparently back in training (whatever that turns out to mean) and Arnie reasonably soon going to hit a super fixture run. (Never mind Mendy potentially reappearing.)

Are those the two everyone else has a strong eye on for the near future, and if so, how would your structure change to accommodate them (if at all)?

I would assume Mitro to Arnie will be a very popular move in a couple of weeks time for those with him, and for a structure like mine a Mane/Trippier to KDB/Robertson swap is always possible if KDB cannot be squeezed in by any other means; but those two count for a reasonably small percentage of all cases, so what are we each thinking?

Has anyone thought about a mad future forward line with all of Salah/Haz/Mane/KDB/Kun? Would only seem possible to me via a very skinny defence indeed (even with the cheapness of AWB, Bennett, potentially a WHU defender and a Jimenez/Ings too), so looks an unlikely route.

Ill have a look at how KDB is getting on tomorrow, id really like him at that price point.

The option i am considering is loosing Kun and Richarlson Firmino and KDB. Id have to downgrade Fraser to a rotter too and sport a 4-4-2. Im sitting on two free transfers.

Leave me with

Hart/Hammer

Roberstson/Alonso/Mendy/Bennet/AWB

Maddison/Salah/KDB/Hazard/4.4

Mitro (Arnie next week), Firmino, Kamara

Compromise would be loosing Aguero, but i think id back Firmino and KDB to better Aguero and Richarlson until Dec. I have a nagging doubt with Aguero we have been very lucky to have gotten the starting mins he has up until now.

I'm really interested in this switch as well (in my case with Fraser not Richarlison). Having jumped ship fro Kun to Kane this week I know that it'll delay/extend the evolution of my forward line by a week, by which time I hope that KDB is back in contention. The saving between KDB and Sterling is significant.
I'm a bit over budget and would have to also downgrade elsewhere. Alternatively I can exactly afford Vardy rather than Firminho.

Ive played around with a few forward lines to facilitate it. Vardy fits as well. I even tried a Arnie, Mitro, Murray or a Jimenez/Ings combo forward line, but im not sure im brave enough to run with that and its hit city.

Keep coming back to Firmino hes pretty much on a par with Kun historically and with glorious fixtures the timing seems right in the second/most attacking team in the league.

KDB is as good as anything out there and a snip at 9.7, City have really missed him.

Ill throw an eye on the game tomorrow, but seems like too good an opportunity to pass up swapping one premium for two given the fixtures and price points.

No rush though.

[Droughton]

Ill have a look at how KDB is getting on tomorrow, id really like him at that price point.
Me too. If he comes back sooner do you think he will be eased in e.g 20,30,55 mins a game then 90?

The option i am considering is loosing Kun and Richarlson Firmino and KDB. and sport a 4-4-2.
This is my plan for the next few weeks to get to that setup

I have a nagging doubt with Aguero we have been very lucky to have gotten the starting mins he has up until now.
Again I agree. Do you think it is because KDB is out so you don’t want to start without Aguero too? Could his mins drop / rests to get over his knock when KDB is back

[baganboy]

Interesting. I was playing around with my team, and saw that even allowing my heavy defence, I can perhaps do KDB, Mane, Hazard, Fraser, Vardy and Lacazette.

Losing Aguero is a huge call, though. Maybe in a couple weeks - maybe with a wildcard.

[The Username]

Ill have a look at how KDB is getting on tomorrow, id really like him at that price point.
Me too. If he comes back sooner do you think he will be eased in e.g 20,30,55 mins a game then 90?

The option i am considering is loosing Kun and Richarlson Firmino and KDB. and sport a 4-4-2.
This is my plan for the next few weeks to get to that setup

I have a nagging doubt with Aguero we have been very lucky to have gotten the starting mins he has up until now.
Again I agree. Do you think it is because KDB is out so you don’t want to start without Aguero too? Could his mins drop / rests to get over his knock when KDB is back

I’d be surprised if he was, I think tomorrow will be his easing in, I assume he will be on the bench and won’t be in the Belgium squad so he has two weeks to work on fitness. He was back training with the first team last week.

It’s hard to know o nAguero ultimately I think we are all guessing, I think he has really given Pep what he has wanted and that is the tracking back defensive piece. He also hasn’t been involved in the last international break with Argentina. I think it’s a matter of time though, he will pick up an injury, need a break and at points Jesus will be an upside for Pep as will be fresher.

My one hesitation is Kane, I wouldn’t mind having him from GW 15 and it’s an easy jump from Aguero, but not impossible to plan around.

[The Username]

Just to share a bit on Everton lads, was at the game today and they played with no recoginised striker. Kind of like the way Liverpool play with traditional attacking midfielders.

Richarlison player mostly in the center of the three, with Walcott on the right and Bernard on the left. But they rotated depending.

Siggy played behind the three of them and pulled all the strings, he was outstanding best game I’ve seen him play for Everton, in this form he is well worth having a look at. He has now become what makes Everton tick. Watch his goal tonight it is early contender for goal of the season.

Equally this was Bernard’s first PL start very dangerous player is a play making, creative type in your traditional Brazilian way, I can see him having a lot of assists, think Arteta when he was at Everton. He’s in the keep an eye category.

Also keep an eye after the international break, Yerry Mina will be back and could be the missing link in keeping clean sheets.

Thought I’d point out the above as Everton looked a very different animal today to what they have been over the last couple of years. One game though.

[blahblah]

Just to share a bit on Everton lads, was at the game today and they played with no recoginised striker. Kind of like the way Liverpool play buy with attacking midfielders.

Richarlison player mostly in the center of the three, with Walcott on the right and Bernard on the left. But they rotated depending.

Siggy played behind the three of them and pulled all the strings, he was outstanding best game I’ve seen him play for Everton, in this form he is well worth having a look at. Watch his goal tonight it is early contender for goal of the season.

Equally this was Bernard’s fort PL start very dangerous player in a play making, creative type I can see him having a lot of assists, think Arteta at Everton or Payet or Mata. He’s in the keep an eye category.

Also keep an eye after the international break, Yerry Mina will be back and could be the missing link in keeping clean sheets.

Thought I’d point out the above as Everton looked a very different animal today to what they have been over the last couple of years. One game though.

Honestly, I am happy for you if it is starting to click. I do struggle with Theo being part of it though

[baganboy]

Excellent update that, TU. Thank you.
Bernard - I only saw the highlights of the goals - he looked scary good for the first one!

[The Username]

Just to share a bit on Everton lads, was at the game today and they played with no recoginised striker. Kind of like the way Liverpool play buy with attacking midfielders.

Richarlison player mostly in the center of the three, with Walcott on the right and Bernard on the left. But they rotated depending.

Siggy played behind the three of them and pulled all the strings, he was outstanding best game I’ve seen him play for Everton, in this form he is well worth having a look at. Watch his goal tonight it is early contender for goal of the season.

Equally this was Bernard’s first PL start very dangerous player in a play making, creative type I can see him having a lot of assists, think Arteta at Everton or Payet or Mata. He’s in the keep an eye category.

Also keep an eye after the international break, Yerry Mina will be back and could be the missing link in keeping clean sheets.

Thought I’d point out the above as Everton looked a very different animal today to what they have been over the last couple of years. One game though.

Honestly, I am happy for you if it is starting to click. I do struggle with Theo being part of it though

In all honestly it’s Richalson who hasn’t looked in top form since his red card, he scored today but Walcott has been in better form and looked more threatening. Over the season though I’d expect both to post about 150 respectable for their price points. Richalson could maybe do a bit better if he continues to play centrally.

[The Username]

Excellent update that, TU. Thank you.
Bernard - I only saw the highlights of the goals - he looked scary good for the first one!

I’d say he’s a couple of weeks of being fully fit, he tends to tire at points in games and gets a bit sloppy, he’s only back a few weeks since last March when he dislocated his shoulder and didn’t have much of a preseason. I think there may be more headroom there. One to keep an eye on.

[blahblah]

Bernie is of more interest FPL wise than Theo (I have been burnt there before...) and Rich has hit the Brazilian national side with some aplomb?

6th could be up for grabs (MU), and maybe 4th (Arse and Spuds)?

[The Username]

Bernie is of more interest FPL wise than Theo (I have been burnt there before...) and Rich has hit the Brazilian national side with some aplomb?

6th could be up for grabs (MU), and maybe 4th (Arse and Spuds)?

Early days, I’d say and stiffer fixtures to come. Europe this year would be a great achievement, but I think it will take a year to run the antivirus. Getting there bit by bit.

I think all the Everton midfielders will have peaks and troughs. Sigurrdson prob the stand out option as the crow flies. Walcott will score points every second or third week. Richalson’s way of playing suits this game even if he’s quiet. Bernard will score well as he gets fitter and will be one to watch as a value option. I think it will be picking the right periods with Everton. Sigurrdson is quickly becoming the main man everything goes through like at Swansea.

[blahblah]

Interesting re Siggy, I'll give your lot a watch in the next few GW's - but I seem to jinx Rich and Maddi so avoid both Clubs, lol.

re Top 4\6: I sense another, but lesser, Leicester season and is more than the coincidence of another Jose 3rd season. Arse are in transition, Spurs looking like Spuds, but Chelsea seemingly on the up, which still leaves 4th up for grabs. Whether it is a good thing is a different question.

Sort out a defence and DM stuff and I would be far from surprised if you got 4th. That typed you have only played 1 of that Top 6, but it may be a plus as 2 of them are getting less good, imho....

[The Username]

Interesting re Siggy, I'll give your lot a watch in the next few GW's - but I seem to jinx Rich and Maddi so avoid both Clubs, lol.

re Top 4\6: I sense another, but lesser, Leicester season and is more than the coincidence of another Jose 3rd season. Arse are in transition, Spurs looking like Spuds, but Chelsea seemingly on the up, which still leaves 4th up for grabs. Whether it is a good thing is a different question.

Sort out a defence and DM stuff and I would be far from surprised if you got 4th. That typed you have only played 1 of that Top 6, but it may be a plus as 2 of them are getting less good, imho....

Id be aiming for fighting it out with Wolves and Bournemouth for a Europa spot and a run in the cup myself its going to take a while for Allardyce antivirus to work. Very much a work in progress.

A few things i would keep an eye an eye when it comes to Everton results.

1. The defence, can be got at at the moment so unlikely to keep clean sheets, Coleman and Mina who hasn't played yet will be back after the international break so things could improve there. Baines is finished as a FPL force at Everton. Dinge has been superb since he came in and i would be amazed if Baines comes back into the team in any meaningful way bar cover. So pens should be Gylfis. Dinge is worth a look if Everton begin to look solid, hes like a young Baines and has a quality cross on him, has a great engine and gets forward a lot. He has come from Barca and previously played for Roma and has just been recalled to the France international squad. Hes becoming a real leader.

2. Midfield the advanced positions are set, Gylfi, Bernard, Richarlson and Walcott are a shoe in all fit. The positions behind with Gana and Davies playing there presently are up for grabs. Schneiderlin has been shocking and he and Gana cant play together in my opinion, he has also lost all confidence and if im honest interest and it looks like a bad fit with him and Everton. Returning Everton have McCarthy and Andre Gomez who can play in those positions. I suspect one or either will replace Davies who peaks and troughs and will play with Gana there. Evertons results improve much with McCarthy in the team that have sadly been to few with injury, but he is the type of player Silva likes, loads of energy work rate, great engine and will press. Gomez is on loan from Barcelona and hasnt played yet as he is returning from injury, hes a no 8 and more of a deep lying play maker type, did well at Valencia a couple of years ago and earned a move to Barca and got a little lost there and had injury difficulties, but comes with a decent pedigree.

3. On the forwards, Everton have huge trouble here, of the conventional forwards there is Tosun, DCL and Niasse. All three have been given a chance this year and none have taken it and goals have been huge a problem as opposed to making chances. This has appexed in Richarlson playing up front yesterday and he did reasonably well. Everton played with a 4-3-3 defensively and a 4-2-1-3 offensively. The central midfield was Gueye and Davies and Gylfi defensively and flipped to, Davies and Gueye in the double pivot with Gylfi playing between the lines at 10 and play making. It was by far Evertons best performance of the season:

Defensively:

Pickford

Kenny,Keane, Zouma, Dinge

Gueye,Gylfi,Davis

Walcott,Richarlson, Bernard


Offensively:

Pickford

Kenny,Keane, Zouma, Dinge

Gueye, Davies

Gylfi,,

Walcott, Richarlson, Bernard

4. There is a huge focus over the international break to get some players fit and into the squad, i believe there will be a few behind the scenes games getting Coleman, Gomez, McCarthy and Mina up to match fitness so there is a few high quality players to supplement the existing squad still to come, two of whom have never played for Everton before and are coming from Barca so there are high hopes for them amongst the fans. Mina in particular given his displays at the world cup and the current vulnerable defence.

[baganboy]

^ Thank you! This is excellent!

[raoul]

some very helpful analysis here.

One thing - to what extent might the improved Everton performance be down to playing against 10 men for half an hour? Was the improvement visible for the whole game, or just later on?

I have Siggy on my radar, and Richarlison in at the moment (although I remain to be convinced of his long term propsects).

[ricardo68]

Siggy definitely lately makes the team tick. He will be gold on the home matches but I worry about the always in the next few game weeks. If Rich stays as oop striker he will get some great returns. Both would not be a bad shout

[The Username]

some very helpful analysis here.

One thing - to what extent might the improved Everton performance be down to playing against 10 men for half an hour? Was the improvement visible for the whole game, or just later on?

I have Siggy on my radar, and Richarlison in at the moment (although I remain to be convinced of his long term propsects).

Very little in my opinion, Maguire and Morgan in particular with the rest of the Leicester defence struggled to contain the front three all game with Gylfi pulling the strings from behind. Everton could and probably should have been three up before Leicester scored. It was a classic Leicester sucker punch they do so well.

Leicester came out on the front foot for 15 mins in the second half, it really didn’t suit them, they play much better on the counter. Morgan should have been sent off a long time before as he could do nothing but foul the Everton front three. But if you see the winning goal you will realize Leicester could have had 20 players on the pitch and it wouldn’t have mattered.

I am definitely not saying empty your team and get Everton players, but it’s likely at least one is the counter balance in many teams, so just sharing some observations on the state of the union and an interesting development that may offer context to choice, especially with the combinations in the advanced positions last Saturday.

It’s probaly worth saying Everton may be a bit boom and bust as they develop, Silva’s philosphey is high risk go for the win approach rather then the pragmatic philosphey of Moyes, Allardyce or Koeman. Not so good for defenders but interesting for attackers and decent counter balance points there as a result. A decent striker would make all the difference for Everton they are creating so many chances going begging.

The only game they have been unlucky not to win was the West Ham game were they were completely bullied and physically out matched.

Work in progress, nice looking house thats missing a roof, but just maybe what they did up front last Saturday may lead to something more consistent and meaningful.

[raoul]

Thanks. A very balanced and honest explanation.

Siggy just moved up my list.

[BobMem]

Yes, really insightful, thanks The Username.
I think the price difference between Richarlison and Sigurdsson swings it in favour of the Brazilian, but Sigurdsson represents a decent differential for those with a couple of pound going spare.

[FranckKessie]

I would be hesitant in bringing Everton players in atm. They have in my mind too many dodgy fixtures and only fielding them every second game(ideally) is perhaps too much to pay. Furtheremore they seem like the natural Mid to upgrade if wanting to fit another heavyweighter in, like KDB.

[Notned]

Very interesting thoughts, cheers. Richarlison looking likely to continue OOP is very promising, and I'm liking what you say about Siggy. Missed the highlights from the weekend, but he was very impressive by all accounts. Hitting form at a very convenient time with me looking at circa 7m Moura replacements, too. Ramsey was/is my front-runner, but may require some more thought.