Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

[Archy]

Surely its a big assumption to say Salah is likely to get a minimum 260 points this season?

So far this season, he's averaged (just under) 6 points a game, which extrapolates to 228 points over a season (similar to Kane's best). One could argue he's been unfortunate not to score more and the big returns will come, but one could also argue he's had generous fixtures so far, hasn't been prone to rotation yet, and last year's stellar points haul was somewhat freakish in nature.

I hold him as I hope the big returns will come, but am not bullish about him delivering 260+ points at this stage.

[ajcairns]

Surely its a big assumption to say Salah is likely to get a minimum 260 points this season?

So far this season, he's averaged (just under) 6 points a game, which extrapolates to 228 points over a season (similar to Kane's best). One could argue he's been unfortunate not to score more and the big returns will come, but one could also argue he's had generous fixtures so far, hasn't been prone to rotation yet, and last year's stellar points haul was somewhat freakish in nature.

I hold him as I hope the big returns will come, but am not bullish about him delivering 260+ points at this stage.

#askstu

[Aldershot Rejects]

Surely its a big assumption to say Salah is likely to get a minimum 260 points this season?

So far this season, he's averaged (just under) 6 points a game, which extrapolates to 228 points over a season (similar to Kane's best). One could argue he's been unfortunate not to score more and the big returns will come, but one could also argue he's had generous fixtures so far, hasn't been prone to rotation yet, and last year's stellar points haul was somewhat freakish in nature.

I hold him as I hope the big returns will come, but am not bullish about him delivering 260+ points at this stage.

I'm not sure that was the point. The point as I understand it, is that Salah's performance could drop by 15% and he would still comfortable outscore Kane's best ever season and yet the price difference is only 0.5m. In order to match Salah 2017/18 less 15%, Kane would probably have to score 35+ goals.

Stem's comments re Kane possibly hint at something I have thought since the beginning of the season - it is very difficult to see Kane being value for money (even with captaincy) over the course of a season, his points ceiling is just too low.

[baganboy]

Of course price is not irrelevant. 'Value', on the other hand, is an entirely subjective measure. Value calcs are useful as a tool in player identification, but in order to calculate 'value' you first need a points projection for each player. If you have points projections for every player then in the truest sense 'value' is actually completely irrelevant. Because FPL then just becomes a box-packing problem with a unique solution, which could be found via algorithm (e.g., TSO's website or the spreadsheets in the OP here).

Agree 100%. Value comes after that.

This is to an extent how I had done my plan. After I have done the projection for individual price points, while there is an unique solution which gets the maximum points, and is therefore the best-case solution, I have
1. Considered the top 3-4 box-packing solutions which give eventual point projections, because the overall points projection in each case was nearly the same. What is the difference between 2521 points and 2518, when both are projections anyway.
2. Risk-assessed between the solutions. 13M mid getting 8.42 ppg is more risky than 9.5m mid getting 6.05 ppg, for example. ***
3. Considered Value. Sakho is value because it seems he can perform as a 5.5m defender (4.05 ppg) while being 5m priced. Mendy and Robertson were always considered 6.5M defenders (4.71 ppg)
4. Then re-done the box-packing solution while using some of the identified value players judiciously - and getting the optimal, risk-assessed and value-considered team which costs 100m but is worth 102M because of the value.

Of course, my implementation has been quite horrid. Richarlison is an obvious 7.5M played, but I did not identify him. Patricio, Fraser, Ings, Jimenez. Many more.


*** even when making the optimal teams, I tended to project Salah as a 12m mid @7.39 ppg. 280 will be the third highest points ever achieved by a midfielder at FPL, and only 3 points less that C Ronaldo at his pomp. And C Ron at the season after his monster season, got about 212 or so. And this was one of the greatest player of all time, at near about his pomp. Even if Salah is CRon....

[zipnolan]

Taking the point about value being combinatory (i.e. not confined to a single player, which I prefer to "entirely subjective") my current take on Salah is that there is a direct relationship between his current "value" and the "value" of the 4.0 template defenders (for me those are Wan-Bissaka and Bennett). For as long as those guys are delivering exceptional returns I can afford to invest in the potential "value" of Salah, which in xG and xA terms remains high. If I find that I need to invest more in defence to get a return there, then my options to invest in Salah are limited.

The way this season is panning out, my entire team structure and formation is being driven by the price extremes represented by Salah and the dirt-cheap defenders. A change at either end is going to mandate a complete rebalancing, and I don't want to do that right now.
Others (e.g. baganboy) have gone without Salah and have notched up WB/Bennett to Sahko/Doherty (Boly). Personally (after much soul-searching) I don't see a need to do that yet, but the debate rages inside my head.

[baganboy]

Surely its a big assumption to say Salah is likely to get a minimum 260 points this season?

So far this season, he's averaged (just under) 6 points a game, which extrapolates to 228 points over a season (similar to Kane's best). One could argue he's been unfortunate not to score more and the big returns will come, but one could also argue he's had generous fixtures so far, hasn't been prone to rotation yet, and last year's stellar points haul was somewhat freakish in nature.

I hold him as I hope the big returns will come, but am not bullish about him delivering 260+ points at this stage.

I'm not sure that was the point. The point as I understand it, is that Salah's performance could drop by 15% and he would still comfortable outscore Kane's best ever season and yet the price difference is only 0.5m. In order to match Salah 2017/18 less 15%, Kane would probably have to score 35+ goals.

Stem's comments re Kane possibly hint at something I have thought since the beginning of the season - it is very difficult to see Kane being value for money (even with captaincy) over the course of a season, his points ceiling is just too low.

Agree. Kane is a forward. Salah is OOP as a midfielder. That's already a gap of at least (20G+18CS)=38 points right there. That is the prospective gap between Maddison and Kante.

If Kane would have been a midfielder, in his greatest season, he would have got 270 points in 30 games, at a ppg higher than Salah's.

There is no comparison. A Forward who is included in the game OOP as a Mid, always beats another comparably good forward who is not OOP.

However, Kane could be useful for a team earlier even if he was not quite value for money, by the sheer dint of goals and therefore points. but now that OOP FW/Mids like Salah can match his goals tally, Kane's usefulness has diminished considerably IMHO.

[Ruth_NZ]

Of course price is not irrelevant. 'Value', on the other hand, is an entirely subjective measure.

Points per million spend (crudely that's value) is entirely subjective?

Because FPL then just becomes a box-packing problem with a unique solution...

OK, that's fair enough in general. Maybe with a number of feasible solutions? And the element of predictability comes into that as well, right, because we can't reverse-engineer with the benefit of hindsight?

FPL is all about combinations imo. Salah doesn't 'block' any combination, he is a combination. If say Salah + KDB is not going to get as many points as Lukaku & Kun (for roughly the same cash) then Salah is unlikely to be in the best team. But even then he still could be in the best team as there is obviously more to it than just that one combo; each of those combinations is of players in different positions and it needs extrapolating. It also depends on a third/fourth combination component - the corresponding cheap mid/attacker each would be replacing, etc.

OK, I am following your combinations concept and thoroughly agree with the last sentence because it's seldom just 2 players really. But saying that Salah doesn't block any combination makes little sense to me. If you have 13m invested in him it naturally limits other options at that time surely?

In terms of Haz/Mane/Salah for the season, it is KBD that I also see as the spanner in a couple of months time... - because the 9m attacking pricepoint is one that isn't really represented in team structures atm and he could be superb for that price.

Yes, I suspect that KDB at 9.6m will walk into both our squads. But you'd not discount Alli/Eriksen from having a part to play, would you? Or D Silva till KDB is back?

Kane I don't really see as a good 'no Salah' example, because his price is so similar to Salah's. If Salah isn't in the best squad for 13m when he got 303 points last season then I really struggle to see how Kane (whose best ever season is 224 points even with 29 goals) could get close for 12.5.

Well, we aren't talking about a whole season, are we? We are talking about periods within a season and even if Salah has a 15% better points projection than Kane over 38 games that doesn't mean Kane can't be better than Salah over a specific period of, say, 6-10 games. Isn't that one of the things we are always after - to have the premiums that are running hot and when they are running hot?

And every 'prohibitive price' argument you can make about Salah must also apply to Kane too. Salah's fixtures are similarly good from GW9 onwards, but as always with FPL there's nothing in theory stopping Kane being worth it for a short spell of captaincy, I've mentioned myself that Kane is one that could reasonably have a short stint in my team in place of Salah, though arguably the best time for that on the fixture front would have been GWs 5-8. (Edit: With Spurs not currently playing well, as they arguably have not for a number of months - e.g. the xG/xGA trend charts - a big form shift would need to be in order).

No argument there but the key thing for me is "there's nothing in theory stopping Kane being worth it for a short spell of captaincy". Or even a longer spell. But I agree that you'd need to see clear signs of an upturn in both him and in Spurs. So it seems that we aren't that far apart really, because I don't in the slightest discount having Salah for spells of the season either. It's not dogmatic, this, from me. I had him since GW1 after all.

[baganboy]

Taking the point about value being combinatory (i.e. not confined to a single player, which I prefer to "entirely subjective") my current take on Salah is that there is a direct relationship between his current "value" and the "value" of the 4.0 template defenders (for me those are Wan-Bissaka and Bennett). For as long as those guys are delivering exceptional returns I can afford to invest in the potential "value" of Salah, which in xG and xA terms remains high. If I find that I need to invest more in defence to get a return there, then my options to invest in Salah are limited.

The way this season is panning out, my entire team structure and formation is being driven by the price extremes represented by Salah and the dirt-cheap defenders. A change at either end is going to mandate a complete rebalancing, and I don't want to do that right now.
Others (e.g. baganboy) have gone without Salah and have notched up WB/Bennett to Sahko/Doherty (Boly). Personally (after much soul-searching) I don't see a need to do that yet, but the debate rages inside my head.

That is the point. Agree 100%. Well articulated.

WB/Bennett to Sahko/Doherty is incremental. I would prefer the Salah+ team there.
My comparison scale was WB/Bennett to Alonso/TAA - assuming Salah was being balanced by Firmino. Mane would have been in the team any which way.

PS: I have watchlisted AWB. If he really is all that, I will get in Salah+AWB. Eventually the point of the game is getting the most points

And most importantly - GW6 is surely Salah's GW? I can see him get a hatful.

[baganboy]

Does having both Ings and Jimenez make a lot of sense going forward now given their form and price? Last year there was no-one really in that bracket and at least one seems a no brainer but it may be smarter to have both and a premium in a 3 man forward line

Yes indeed. I am thinking of that for my eventual wildcard.
Even a 2-man few line with just the two of them, and a monster midfield is in consideration.

[Ruth_NZ]

And most importantly - GW6 is surely Salah's GW? I can see him get a hatful.

I hope so, that's why he's still in my team. But we aren't talking about removing Salah this week specifically, are we? Apologies if I misunderstood, I wouldn't advocate that myself either. I thought we were discussing general principles.

[baganboy]

And most importantly - GW6 is surely Salah's GW? I can see him get a hatful.

I hope so, that's why he's still in my team. But we aren't talking about removing Salah this week specifically, are we? Apologies if I misunderstood, I wouldn't advocate that myself either. I thought we were discussing general principles.

He is the most-transferred-out player. Can you imagine?

But I agree. Yes I was thinking of general principles too.

[raoul]

Are Southampton really that bad? Or do they look bad in relative terms next to PSG, Chelsea games?

Don't get me wrong he has a chance to score points at the weekend. But Hazard and Lukaku look more on the money at the moment. I reckon both could match or beat Salah this weekend even with tougher fixtures.

[Stu255]

Are Southampton really that bad? Or do they look bad in relative terms next to PSG, Chelsea games?

Don't get me wrong he has a chance to score points at the weekend. But Hazard and Lukaku look more on the money at the moment. I reckon both could match or beat Salah this weekend even with tougher fixtures.

Liverpool are at home. Rule of thumb is that forwards get 1.8x as many shots when at home v's when away.
Last season Salah had 51 shots away, and 92 shots at Anfield. He got 119 points away and 184 at home.

So playing mediocre opposition at home is generally better than playing bottom of the table teams away.

[Sutter Kane]

Well anything can happen with top players. If S'ton sit back they could frustrate Liverpool as Brighton did when it was only 1-0 at Anfield. (and that was when Salah scored after only 20 odd minutes) Ryan did make 5-6 saves in that match but it wasn't a steam roller because a few of the chances for Liv were at the end iirc, when Brighton were chasing - having said that I can still see 3-0...and wouldn't be surprised with 4-5 goals. But if it is 3-0 after an hour, can't see any chance of Salah staying on the pitch. I do see Klopp wanting to send Chelsea a message in the cup game preceding the league game, so can see Salah starting that one too and playing 60 minutes. It's always going to be the danger from now on with Pool's squad depth, that Salah doesn't play the easy games, if rotation is indeed an issue.

As a non-owner and Hazard captainer I think there's about a 10% chance he's rested at the weekend and would probably take 9 points damage from him, because I know he's capable of 18+pts if he starts. All things considered, I think he'd average 8-10. Hazard slightly less imo: West Ham may have turned a corner and will be up for derby of course.

[raoul]

Look, I am not saying 3 or 4 nil won't happen. Lots of evidence to say it will, not least last night's capitulation (and last season it was 3-0 in the same fixture).

And no Ings, so I doubt there will be much going in the opposite direction.

But.

Mane and Firmino have more recent goals. Liverpool could get the expected result with Salah not contributing much of it points-wise. He surely won't play the whole game thanks to CL rotation needs, and then what if Liverpool lose tonight?

All I am saying is that Hazard looked an easier haul to predict at the weekend in a similar home game against weak opposition, because at present Hazard looks well up for it. Not sure Salah is at full throttle yet, and maybe Saturday is his day to let loose or maybe his desire frustrates him.

We'll find out soon enough.

[Stemania]

Points per million spend (crudely that's value) is entirely subjective?

Yep, because for PPM you're subjectively choosing an arbitrary value for the 'base price' yourself - here for pure PPG it is set at 0m. It would be exactly the same game if every player cost 4m more or every player cost 4m less, yet you could perfectly happily define 'value' relative to either of the ±4m 'base price' and each might give you a different answer on whether a player is 'good' or 'poor' value in your metric - the point being that the outcome depends on a choice you have made, not intrinsically on the data.

There has to be some subjectivity somewhere, specifically in points projections (or some other means of points estimation/extrapolation), but 'value' just adds another layer of subjectivity in analysing/using this data.

[jonesbones]

Really interesting discussion about value etc. here guys- enjoyed reading it. I agree that it feels like there are more undervalued players than usual at the lower price points. IMO it makes indulging in Salah at 13m perfectly acceptable if you believe he’ll score plenty of points in the coming weeks (as I do). I’ve never been one to try and cram in loads of premium players, generally preferring a more balanced set up. However, this week I’m wildcarding to something like the below, because it just feels right to me:

4.5/4.0
Alonso/Mendy/4.5/Doherty/AWB
Salah/Hazard/Mane/Fraser/4.5
Aguero/Mitrovic/Jimenez

It just doesn’t feel like I have to make significant compromises to shoehorn in the big players I’d like.
Feel free to point out the flaws in my plan!

[Archy]

Surely its a big assumption to say Salah is likely to get a minimum 260 points this season?

So far this season, he's averaged (just under) 6 points a game, which extrapolates to 228 points over a season (similar to Kane's best). One could argue he's been unfortunate not to score more and the big returns will come, but one could also argue he's had generous fixtures so far, hasn't been prone to rotation yet, and last year's stellar points haul was somewhat freakish in nature.

I hold him as I hope the big returns will come, but am not bullish about him delivering 260+ points at this stage.

I'm not sure that was the point. The point as I understand it, is that Salah's performance could drop by 15% and he would still comfortable outscore Kane's best ever season and yet the price difference is only 0.5m. In order to match Salah 2017/18 less 15%, Kane would probably have to score 35+ goals.

Stem's comments re Kane possibly hint at something I have thought since the beginning of the season - it is very difficult to see Kane being value for money (even with captaincy) over the course of a season, his points ceiling is just too low.

Agree. Kane is a forward. Salah is OOP as a midfielder. That's already a gap of at least (20G+18CS)=38 points right there. That is the prospective gap between Maddison and Kante.

If Kane would have been a midfielder, in his greatest season, he would have got 270 points in 30 games, at a ppg higher than Salah's.

There is no comparison. A Forward who is included in the game OOP as a Mid, always beats another comparably good forward who is not OOP.

However, Kane could be useful for a team earlier even if he was not quite value for money, by the sheer dint of goals and therefore points. but now that OOP FW/Mids like Salah can match his goals tally, Kane's usefulness has diminished considerably IMHO.

All good points from both of you, and I certainly don’t disagree with the Salah > Kane argument.

I’m just a little more cautious with my expectations of Salah this season: I think it’s perfectly feasible he could ‘only’ have a season as good as a good Eden Hazard season, who’s best 3 years to date have seen him deliver tallys around the 200-230 range. If Salah does that it might alter the argument somewhat.

[baganboy]

^ While I agree that it is possible Archy, there is a gap I would highlight. It might mean little, mind.
Hazard in his two key seasons was still playing under pragmatic managers, whose teams scored 73 and 85 goals over the course of the season. And in both of those major seasons for Hazard, chelsea's leading scorer was a 20 goals a season striker in Diego Costa.Hazard was not the main goal scorer.
Liverpool plays under a gung-ho attacking coach whose team perhaps would score 100 odd goals, and Salah is the chief goalscorer along with Mane. So a 250 season is feasible. (I do believe a 250 season is possible for Mane too)

A 300 season is magic in a bottle. Perhaps won't happen again...

[Ruth_NZ]

4.5/4.0
Alonso/Mendy/4.5/Doherty/AWB
Salah/Hazard/Mane/Fraser/4.5
Aguero/Mitrovic/Jimenez

Feel free to point out the flaws in my plan!

Kabasele might be good for the 4.5m defender slot. Rotates well with Doherty.

I wouldn't want to double Salah & Mané myself in view of upcoming fixtures but if you had Mané since 9.5m I can also understand keeping hold of him. So I wouldn't exactly say that's a flaw either. GL.

[Ruth_NZ]

Hazard in his two key seasons was still playing under pragmatic managers, whose teams scored 73 and 85 goals over the course of the season. And in both of those major seasons for Hazard, chelsea's leading scorer was a 20 goals a season striker in Diego Costa. Hazard was not the main goal scorer.

Not sure where you are meaning to go with that but what I can tell you is that the way Sarri talks about Hazard (including on Chelsea TV and in other stuff that isn't in the general domain) suggests to me that at last Hazard has a manager at Chelsea that wants to set him free and expects him to score a lot of goals. Hazard never had that before. That being the case, Hazard's previous records could well be broken this season, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him hit 240/250.

[jonesbones]

4.5/4.0
Alonso/Mendy/4.5/Doherty/AWB
Salah/Hazard/Mane/Fraser/4.5
Aguero/Mitrovic/Jimenez

Feel free to point out the flaws in my plan!

Kabasele might be good for the 4.5m defender slot. Rotates well with Doherty.

I wouldn't want to double Salah & Mané myself in view of upcoming fixtures but if you had Mané since 9.5m I can also understand keeping hold of him. So I wouldn't exactly say that's a flaw either. GL.

Thanks Ruth, appreciate the response.
Yes, Kabasele is on my defender shortlist.
Re. Liverpool fixtures- of course they don’t look good on paper, but I’m very much of the opinion that this Liverpool team are at their most threatening when playing against teams who want the ball, and leave space for Mané/Salah to run in to. Chelsea(a) and MCity(h) look perfect in this regard, and I would expect Mané/Salah to have some gilt-edged chances in these games. Whether they take them or not is another matter...

[Ruth_NZ]

...I’m very much of the opinion that this Liverpool team are at their most threatening when playing against teams who want the ball, and leave space for Mané/Salah to run in to. Chelsea(a) and MCity(h) look perfect in this regard, and I would expect Mané/Salah to have some gilt-edged chances in these games.

That's a fair point. I well remember Coutinho/Firmino tearing Chelsea a new one a few years ago, Liverpool were brilliant that day. And they created plenty chances against Spurs this season too. Those games could be anything really but I'd hope Sarri has enough nous not to play into Liverpool's hands anyway.

[Ruth_NZ]

Points per million spend (crudely that's value) is entirely subjective?

Yep, because for PPM you're subjectively choosing an arbitrary value for the 'base price' yourself...

Well I do do that, but I didn't refer to it in this discussion. Not every time I use the word value am I referring to a specific method of assessing it and here I was only referencing the general concept. Calculate it how you like, even use the basic calculation that FPL uses. But it seems crazy to suggest that it's an entirely subjective thing when it is formed from two absolute facts; the price of the player and the points they score. It's far less subjective than xG, for example.

Believe it or not, I am open minded and am genuinely listening to what you say about combinations. You are a very good FPL manager. Maybe I will learn something, you never know. Isn't that what the STC is partly for?

PS. In fact, what you have said has already given me some food for thought. I think the method I have used for calculating value may be flawed because it downplays what you can get from base price players, especially defenders, if you select well. Maybe the gradient after 4.5m should start higher and be flatter. Baganboy thinks so too. So I am listening, Stemania.

[Stemania]

The 'you' was intended as a royal you there, but OK.

Pure PPM is an absolute figure, formed from absolute facts, for sure yes. But coming at it from that viewpoint it is just a figure and has no intrinsic meaning in FPL terms. Approaching the question from that direction, the subjectivity is then added in attempting to attach the notion of 'value' to this figure (for no other reason than it being a conveniently calculable from the way FPL happen to have structured their base prices).

[Stu255]

With value I think there is a good way to think about the budget that I learnt here on FISO very quickly.

On cash...
You start with £100m but £64m of that is sunk or base. You must have 15 players and you cannot do that by spending any less than £64m. So this £64m is fixed / sunk. FPL managers don’t actually have any control over that £64m.

That leaves £36m which is float or discretionary spending. This is the money that FPL managers can actually allocate and reallocate over the season.
The first £64m cannot be reallocated.

But more broadly...

As an FPL manager the things you must allocate are:-
£36m float
11 starting shirts
1 armband

Value has to fit all of these 3 dimensions because they all represent constraints on your ability to accumulate points.

FPL is a packing problem but it is a 3 dimensional packing problem.

Also you don’t have to solve the problem to fit 1 landscape, there is a series of 38 landscapes and you have to find the best solution for the whole journey through those 38 landscapes.

Finally you are allowed to tweak the solution along the journey but only in a very constrained way otherwise you incur severe penalties.

Still my first season, so the way I think about it is still evolving. Much to learn.

[Stemania]

Also you don’t have to solve the problem to fit 1 landscape, there is a series of 38 landscapes and you have to find the best solution for the whole journey through those 38 landscapes.

Finally you are allowed to tweak the solution along the journey but only in a very constrained way otherwise you incur severe penalties.

Aye, very important too. This is on one hand why it's surely vital to look at projections for more than one week, but also imo why in practice we can't just shove all the longer term projections in an algorithm and be done. Micromanagement for the win!!

Not sure what the float brings to the table on the 'value' front in this regard tbh - of course it's an attractive observation, but removing the 64m is essentially just setting the 'base point' cutoff to be 'cheapest player in each position'. Just as subjective a choice, but now the 'infinite value problem' of base pricers is present in any related PPM calc.

Comparing any two players directly (or a combination of players) is unaffected by the inclusion of the 64m or not, because the difference in their prices (which is what we'd all calculate first anyway) is already independent of base price. That is an indication that any analysis of the 'value' of any player (if such a coherent notion exists) should be independent of the base price too. It's still exactly the same packing problem if you add any arbitrary figure to all players prices.

Edit:
A cheap player of good 'value' in the context of a packing problem just means a small but relatively heavy piece to fit into the 100 litre bag of 11 (or really 15) objects - thinking of points potential as weight and price as size - but the nature of packing problems is that even a smallish heavy piece still may not find a home in the heaviest possible bagful due to the misshapen nature of the rest of the objects to choose from. Maybe what can instead be said, is that the small heavier-than-usual pieces are more likely to be in the solution(s), and so any reasonable enough notion of 'value' is surely still useful in player identification for a shortlist (just not as a precise prescription of who makes the team).

[Droughton]

Lots of great discussion of ‘value’ or whatever you wish to call it. Very interesting seeing how players have different ways of calculating.

One thing I personally noticed that nobody mentioned with Salah yet is body language. I believe he is not dealing with the hype surrounding him e.g build up to CL final and then World Cup and both being dissapointments. It is a theory in sport and other fields if you are trying too hard or focusing on the outcome then the actual technique in the moment drops substantially.

Watch some of the chances he has missed back and I believe his decision making / technique is suffering. If you read watch MOTD Liverpool game from the weekend look for his body language when it doesn’t go his way / go well.

I’m personally going to keep him for Southampton because I have Haz and Aguero. Also his potential return could harm me more than a 0.1 drop.

Having said that if he scores poorly again he will be out for the difficult fixtures and I’ll work a way to bring him back in when the situation/finishing looks better.

[Pirlo's Beard]

It is a theory in sport and other fields if you are trying too hard or focusing on the outcome then the actual technique in the moment drops substantially.

Watch some of the chances he has missed back and I believe his decision making / technique is suffering. If you read watch MOTD Liverpool game from the weekend look for his body language when it doesn’t go his way / go well.

Yep, I noticed this against Spurs and again tonight. He's snatching at chances he would have buried last season. His composure seems to have deserted him since his poor performance against Leicester a few weeks ago, but it's worth remembering he scored with a superb finish just a week before that against Brighton. It's a confidence thing for sure, and there's no reason why his confidence can't return once he starts putting one or two chances away. His head's not right at the minute though, and there are a number of possible reasons for that as you alluded to there. It's a worry, as someone who intended to captain him this weekend (and probably still will unless we hear some noises from Klopp about resting him or something).

[Stu255]

Salah...

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