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Patrician's Crystal Ball

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Patrician
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

Sutter Kane wrote: 08 Sep 2019, 08:30 XG conceded doesn't correlate that well with number of shots in the box conceded. I'd have thought it'd line up very well. Is this a normal trend or is it because of a lack of data?

Shots in the box conceded doesn't necessarily mean big chances conceded but in the end, if you are allowing shots in the box, there's only one outcome. Surely?
There is a much better correlation between big chances conceded and xG conceded

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Sutter Kane
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Sutter Kane »

Yes I did notice that. However, I'd extrapolate that Chelsea and Leicester are not that dissimilar defensively based on this small data set. So perhaps the ratings on he right hand side will get better with more games because I don't think the rankings are at all accurate right now. Eye test is probably the main data source for me at this early stage but that will probably change.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Nevertheless, the forecasts are a good starting point. Thanks again for sharing Pat!

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by dino1980 »

@SK - at this early stage I wonder if penalties could possibly be partly responsible for xG conceded not lining up with SITB conceded. At 0.76 xG it could skew the numbers. It certainly can on the attacking side. e.g. Man United have had three penalties already.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by ENEMY »

Thanks Pat. I'm pondering over Haller vs Abraham

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Stenulf »

Patrician wrote: 07 Sep 2019, 19:23 As you all point out, both the forecasts and team ratings can be heavily impacted by a particular fixture with only four weeks of data. Mount does make my top 15 midfielders list, but well below Trossard.


MID GW4.JPG
Hi Patrician, I appreciate your tables.

Could you do one for forwards as well?
/Happy Lurker

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Sutter Kane »

dino1980 wrote: 08 Sep 2019, 11:42 @SK - at this early stage I wonder if penalties could possibly be partly responsible for xG conceded not lining up with SITB conceded. At 0.76 xG it could skew the numbers. It certainly can on the attacking side. e.g. Man United have had three penalties already.
Yes indeed, good shout. It may take a while for the XG lining up with SITB. One thing the data does tell us is that at this stage it seems that it's hard to rely on just the data! I'm unsure who are the mid to lower table defence to go for yet. Soyuncu does seem cheap but I'm not entirely convinced by Leicester: they might be the sort of team that concede once per game. I can't see past 3 premium defenders at the moment.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

Stenulf wrote: 09 Sep 2019, 21:37 Hi Patrician, I appreciate your tables.

Could you do one for forwards as well?
/Happy Lurker
Seek and ye shall find....

Top Forwards GW4.JPG
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Stenulf »

Patrician wrote: 10 Sep 2019, 09:15
Stenulf wrote: 09 Sep 2019, 21:37 Hi Patrician, I appreciate your tables.

Could you do one for forwards as well?
/Happy Lurker
Seek and ye shall find....


Top Forwards GW4.JPG
Thanks, very interesting!

Now if I could only fit in Firminho as well as the 3 holy mids...

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by ENEMY »

Nice. Can we get for defenders as well?

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by raoul »

Careful patrician, you are becoming far too useful and I suspect Trump will announce soon you are sacked.

Seriously, thanks for your analysis. It makes me challenge my eye test and that is a good thing.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

Here the biglyiest defenders.

Defenders GW4.JPG
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Smurphy Paw »

One or two surprises in the defenders list.
Pat, to what extent is our favourite Blade’s prediction skewed by his Crystal Palace performance? Thanks

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by baganboy »

I don't think we say thins often enough. Patrician - thank you.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

Smurphy's Paw wrote: 11 Sep 2019, 08:20 One or two surprises in the defenders list.
Pat, to what extent is our favourite Blade’s prediction skewed by his Crystal Palace performance? Thanks
So far, the mighty Blades have been pretty robust defensively, Lundstram is OOP and in the mix for attacking points. If that continues he will be a first XI pick, not just bench fodder I think.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

baganboy wrote: 11 Sep 2019, 08:33 I don't think we say thins often enough. Patrician - thank you.
You are very welcome 8-)

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Patrician wrote: 11 Sep 2019, 08:42
Smurphy's Paw wrote: 11 Sep 2019, 08:20 One or two surprises in the defenders list.
Pat, to what extent is our favourite Blade’s prediction skewed by his Crystal Palace performance? Thanks
So far, the mighty Blades have been pretty robust defensively, Lundstram is OOP and in the mix for attacking points. If that continues he will be a first XI pick, not just bench fodder I think.
Agreed in part. I’m a lifelong Wednesday supporter and struggle with the ‘mighty’ reference! :lol:
I do have him in my starting 11 this week for all those reasons. His next six look to be tough though

As BB says, thanks

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Turd Ferguson »

I'll add my thanks to all the others for generously sharing these projections.

Lundstram is a big decision in my opinion, because if he's good enough to start then it probably completely changes your shape and allows you to go for another mid-priced attacker.

He's only had 5 shots so far. Three hit-it-and-hope from distance, but then two very good chances in the box. My gut says that it isn't sustainable. He had a couple of good chances fall to him and he took one of them. If he's good for, say, 3 goals and 10 clean sheets over the season, then he's probably a very good fifth defender and first man off the bench, but no more than that. This year's Wan-Bissaka. Maybe someone could look up the more detailed Opta stats to see if he's getting more touches in the box than I'm giving him credit for.

Lundstram.PNG
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by ENEMY »

Mount vs James seems interesting!

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Bao »

It is really useful Pat. What do you think about Digne? I am considering between him (4-3-3) or Mount (3-4-3) in my team.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by math! »

Patrician wrote: 11 Sep 2019, 08:42
Smurphy's Paw wrote: 11 Sep 2019, 08:20 One or two surprises in the defenders list.
Pat, to what extent is our favourite Blade’s prediction skewed by his Crystal Palace performance? Thanks
So far, the mighty Blades have been pretty robust defensively, Lundstram is OOP and in the mix for attacking points. If that continues he will be a first XI pick, not just bench fodder I think.
I've been saying as much. Their goals conceded this season generally were down to silly unforced errors and wonder strikes. Their defensive stats for last season were remarkable.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by BLOCKHEAD »

Raheem Sterling is the only English player to be involved in more goals than Callum Wilson since the start of last season.

Wilson now has serious armband potential - the savings compared to owning Kane could be used for some big upgrades elsewhere.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

Time for some more tables. Getting your premiums right is always a key bit of business. Here is how I rate them.

Premiums.JPG

Key bits of interest are:

1) Aguero is way ahead of the bunch and could have had another hatty yesterday. This is not sustainable, but he is the priority city premium to own.
2) KdB is matching Sterling, for >2M less, so is you want two city, he is your man.
3) All things considered, Sterling should not be in your team. Priority 3 amongst expensive City assets
4) There might be an argument for Firminho and/or Pepe
5) Kane is definitely last seasons Kane, not the old Kane
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

Top Value Players

Note, if the player is >9M I am assuming you will captain 35% of the time.

GW6 Top Value.JPG

A lot of these are obvious now. Cantwell, Lundstram, Pukki (even now his price has gone up)
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Patrician
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

BPS Monsters - top 15 players sorted by rate of BPS generation

GW6 BPS Monsters.JPG
KdB. What a player.
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Patrician
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

Overall, a pretty bad start for my team, I went heavy in defence and it has not been a good year for that strategy. However, I believe I now have a near optimal squad based on what we have seen so far, so hopeful of making good leaps up the table now. I forecast this gang to be in the region of 70 points per week on average.

GW6 Patrician Sqaud.JPG

Only improvements might be Pereira>Digne, and Trossard (when back) > Mount. Apart from that I can't better this.
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Stemania »

Cool. :)

Though, do you think your model might overweight recent (this season's) production stats on the face of Aguero's projection? It really was a mad game for him against Watford!

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician »

He definitely got a big boost from the Watford game, but was already top of my forecast. I think with KdB back, Aguero is a big beneficary,

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Smurphy Paw »

With 13/15 the same and only Button/Adrian & Soyuncu/Boly different that makes me feel good!

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by TheRumourMill »

Fascinating stuff, thank you. I do feel the predicted discrepancy between aguero and sterling is exaggerated a little, aguero got a boost of 4 xg+xa from that match whereas sterling got zero from it, he undoubtedly would have got a boost of some sort from that fixture had he played.

I did have one request if I may, that of David Silva over the next 6. He's quite tough to model for me as his minutes are quite insecure, but when he plays he's generally in the points. I'm debating the upgrade of him to son/Pepe, but might be worth leaving him in just to tick over.

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