Kuchi RMT Blog/Musings

[Kuchi]

Had planned to get this going a while ago .... Better late than never. Will be using this as a place to get my random thoughts down on the game in current gameweek/future planning.

[No Way Jose]

Looking forward to it mate

[Kuchi]

Very odd GW25 I finished with 60 which initially felt pretty good at the time … Until that late Aguero goal. Went from about 2k to 1500 again nice but feels that everyone in and around this point has pretty much the template. So I guess there are just a couple of options be boring and just play it out. Do what the most popular chip option of “WC33/BB34/FH35” and probably finish around 1k probably a little lower. At the time of writing this I am 41 points ahead of the top 10k which for me marks a pretty good season but 21 behind the top 500 which was the aim for me.

Whilst the template has held well for a while I think there are a fair few players who may need to be shuffled. Masuaku hasn’t paid off, Adrian I don’t really like having, Pope was fantastic but I don’t know if he will keep his place. Dunk is fine although I don’t really trust Brighton right now and Quaner is just a 1 pointer off the bench. Not even sure if that can be relied on quite frankly. Do I really want to waste transfers on people like Masuaku and Quaner …. Not really. But the situation with people like Son and Lingard is getting pretty tricky. Spurs just signed Lucas Moura which I imagine will eat into Sons minutes and Lamela is also around who I think Poch likes. With Sanchez’s arrival at United that also puts a question mark over Lingard.

So I find myself at the position where I think …. Hang on I could comfortably make at least 5 changes and that isn’t really looking at it in depth. Whilst I initially thought about delaying the WC till 32/33 it feels more and more that I will pretty much NEED to wildcard soon or just haemorrhage points from hits. Now I take more hits than the vast majority but not sure if it is worth it for these sorts of players. Son to Mahrez was in my mind but now with the transfer thing …. Another possible blanker and with such a fragile bench that feels wrong.

There is a juicy fixture shift from 28 for a lot of the big teams and relegation strugglers with new managers/players starting to show what the teams will be like. Add in the big blank game week in 31 wildcarding in 28 is feeling more and more tempting. What wildcarding would allow is to take a great deal of money from the back and shift from 3-5-2 to a 3-4-3 which I feel is better structure wise and allows an easier bench boost if the opportunity arrives. Mkhi and PEA am very tempting too. There will be two weeks to see how they settle and if Arsenal can get some form back. What this would mean however would be going super cheap at the back, maybe with Monreal/Maguire and a fair few Saints/WBA sort of players. Everton are interesting too. Same with Stoke. Just look at Swansea and their last couple of games. These sorts of teams are really starting to fight.

My transfers this week was Son and Firmino to Sanchez and Wilson. Wilson sadly got some points against Chelsea but with Stoke at home and Huddersfield away in the next two he has more chances. Sanchez has Huddersfield at home and Newcastle away and at this moment is owned by 0.6% of live teams….. Hopefully this will pay off next week and then can make a luxury move the week after then have 2 weeks for the wildcard to form. This is the point in the season where you can make massive gains or lose a lot. I guess if it goes really bad I drop the 40 points back to 10k and just accept it or I can do what I can plan as much as possible and take a risk with the wildcard and hope not only I can claw into the top 500 but stay there. Having the FH left for 34 is really leading me toward the 28 wildcard because it doesn’t matter then what people do with their 33 WC I can just essentially match it in 34 with FH. My team in theory should be better than theirs in 33 too and then when they play FH in 35 I will have an extra transfer to prepare for 37/38.

Who knows and sods law Sanchez will do nothing, Son/Firmino points and Aguero bangs in a couple against Burnley.

[Kuchi]

GW26 and the urge to wildcard right now is tempting. Only 10 starters with Jones and Alonso missing out meant a bench of Masuaku and Dunk just simply doesn’t cut it. Add in Adrian, Pope, Otamendi (who might be rotated), Lingard and Quaner. All of these I would be happy to get rid of.

Score of 49 (-4) with Sanchez captain made the pain more. Salah getting 15 who everyone is usually considering each week meant a red arrow from around 1500 back to 2000. This week I find myself at a loss of what to do. Lingard to Walcott I am off 0.1 and to be honest Lingard has been a nightmare. I waited and thought about him and paid 0.1 more than I should have done which has now locked me out of a fair few moves. Masuaku to Mawson is a consideration but then I have a bench headache. Although that move would mean I could any of Jones/Alonso/Otamendi not playing.

Wildcard talk with Ruth is going well and batting around a few ideas for BB/structure and I am almost set on the 28 wildcard. Still much to be decided but there are a couple of decent ideas in place. There are a fair few teams with Kenny/Walcott/Bauer and so on that I think are very well set up right now and I question how I managed to get not think about those players (or sell them) to get to this point. My aggressive nature of trying to be on the front foot has hurt again although I think the Sanchez move was smart. Was he worth giving him the armband when just having him would have been a differential? Questionable but again pro’s and con’s to both ideas.

Chelsea being destroyed by Watford makes me interested in just selling Alonso but who for. Am capped out on United players (thanks Jesse) so him to someone is an idea. But I still have 1 mil ITB so I don’t think that is a good use of funds. Feel that a move for Masuaku to say Fernandez would be best just to cover or possibly Bauer in case I don’t go with the WC28 idea.

Am not sure how long the current template will hold with City rotation, Chelsea form, Jones being ill. Will have to wait till the FA cup games before I make a final decision, just hope this GW27 isn’t too painful.

[Mav3rick]

The bench has been an issue, I had the same Alonso, Jones, Masuaku, Dunk issue myself.

I definitely need a transfer there for this coming week anyway, as even if everyone bar Masuaku starts I'm still fielding some dodgy looking third defender.

The thing I can't quite work out is which defender to bring in. Bauer is good this week and for the blank but offers little over Masuaku in the other fixtures.

Naughton appeals but has no GW31 (and a poor GW32) so neither helps in the blank nor in getting out of it. I've looked at Daniels, who would help in 32, may yet have a GW31 and has good immediate fixtures too... But Bournemouth seem fairly unable to keep clean sheets.

Going up the price range doesn't appeal much as extra investment just means little or no chance to bring in Mane, but that could mean a Liverpool defender was an option instead. If one of the full backs were inured then I'd probably feel confident in making a pick there, but I'm not majorly happy with paying VVD money for someone who could still be rotated.

Bit of a nightmare really, but I think one of the Bournemouth players is probably the one for me. Maybe.

[Mav3rick]

What's your GW28 WC looking like out if interest?

[Joshhua]

I was all set on GW28 WC with BB GW29, but it is a real pity FAC draw was that kind to PL teams. A lot of people will do the WC GW32-33 by default and if there are no big upsets I`ll be probably doing the same. Ironically, my biggest issue is that Everton is looking very poor and Big Sam said he just wants "to ride this season out" (as per Totally Football podcast guys).
My planned WC team was going to be something like this:

Fabianski, Pickford/Foster
Coleman, Stephens, Maguire, Bauer, (VVD, Fernandez/Naughton, Spurs def etc.)
Salah, Sterling, Walcott, Ramsey, (Alli, Eriksen, Mane, Mahrez, etc)
Kane, Firmino, Ayew

Everton players should of been one of the key components of the team, but that idea looks to be as good as buried. As already explained in detail in the Ruth`s thread, don`t think the usual approach with WC32-33 is that good when faced with actual fixtures and circumstances, but if there are no surprises then it could be the way to go or that crazy original Bongo`s idea with very late WC.

[Mav3rick]

Everton players dead and buried because they are massively risky in terms of form or because of the issues of keeping them post BGW31? The upcoming fixtures look promising don't they, at least for a Walcott type if not the somewhat dodgy defence I'd still partly expect a Big Sam team to start defending a little better, but also I would agree that expensive players like Coleman don't work long term.

I do see a GW32+ issue with Everton players personally, that's really a struggle for me to work through how to keep them after the blank week, which is what leads me to a post BGW31 WC being beneficial, using it to clean up and launch the final phase of the season.

Ramsey for instance is one that I'd really struggle to pickup without a wildcard right now, but I kind of fancy him in place of Walcott post blank, with at least two Liverpool players jettisoned too for DGW candidates. That's already a good 5 transfers I'd wanna do, let alone if I commit with players like Shaquiri and Bauer too (who also have horrid GW32 fixtures).

I do honestly struggle to see many benefits of an early move on the WC, unless as SP said, there are several players that you want to shift, but even then, the shifting fixtures post blank just look just as horrible to navigate and just as worthy of a wildcard.

I'm open to being convinced, but right now, I'm a bit confused by the attraction, as I see that post-blank period as the most tricky to work through fixture wise.

[Mav3rick]

I'm not trying to be dismissive of the GW28 WC either by the way, good managers are advocating it so I wanna be sure I'm not missing something important.

[Kuchi]

Am still working on it. Still trying to juggle things but as Mav points out the hard part is having a plan to lose some of the weaker players/teams. In theory the team is basically Spurs/Arsenal/Liverpool with some some weaker teams who need to fight relegation with good fixtures and trying to it all together. There will be transfers from 28 onwards but it is having a rough plan in mind. With my team looking worse and worse by the day I might just risk it. Bauer in theory could be benched for 32 as 35 is nice. Shaq is another odd one. Still trying all the combinations of options available. Swa/Saints/WBA/Lei are interesting too. Stoke to CPL players for 33 is another option I am looking at. Imagine it will almost go down to the wire as I won't press the button till after the FA cup games. Chelsea are the interesting team for me. 33 and 35 is wonderful for them.

[Mav3rick]

It's the Arsenal players that look really useful to me, they really interest me (at least from GW29) it's the only advantage I think I can spot for an earlier-than-GW33/34 wildcard as the move to Arsenal assets is quite hard for me without a wildcard. I don't want to wait too long (i.e. DGW34) and miss out on STO, SOU in GW32/33, the DGW34, FH35, man, DGW37 and then hud, but equally to get those Arsenal assets then my Liverpool ones need to be dropped. Timing is crucial, and I wonder if you're seeing the same sort of scenario with Man Utd/Man City assets and drawing the same conclusion for the same reasons, a few GWs sooner?

I'm not sure I see myself wanting to keep Mane and Firmino away at palace and then in the derby (GW32/33) when I could be having Arsenal assets embarking on the run highlighted.

[Kuchi]

What is nice about the GW28 is by getting Arsenal early and holding you still get them back for 35 if you are FHing 34 (which the plan would be). Agree on the liverpool thing too. This is why it is so bloody tricky. City I can see rotation on the horizon and united ... well it is hard to say. I think I will keep just juggling players until I hit a eureka moment. There MUST be a way to do it. Perhaps changing from pool to chelsea in 33? Or possible pool to united ... Really is just so much to consider. Arsenal could do some major damage before people WC in 33, spurs too who knows. If I didn't have FH for 34 there is zero chance I would do this by the way. Also as a disclaimer I am not 100% committed yet but am edging more and more to it purely because my team is looking worse and worse. Being "stubborn" to an extent and just saying well I will just wait to 33 is still a fair few GWs away and a lot of points could be lost before. As you say it is the timing. Get in on Arsenal before a nice run of a few 3/4 goals a game and that is silly points. Let alone a few good fixtures for other teams too.

[No Way Jose]

My thinking is similar to you Mav and I think i've come to the conclusion that from 32 onwards I won't be happy with the team I have created for 31 and a 32 WC with 34 and 37 in mind is what I will likely do and use 33 and 34 FTs and a hit if needed (unlikely) to fix anything for BB in 34

All going well though I think I would replace 2 pool players (firmino and robertson) with arsenal for 32 and 33 and then use my 2 FTs to swap them for double GW players that I have planned in advance while WCing to make sure I have funds for. does this make sense?

[Mav3rick]

What is nice about the GW28 is by getting Arsenal early and holding you still get them back for 35 if you are FHing 34 (which the plan would be).

This is the bit I've probably been missing. FH in 34 obviously navigates the big DGW easily (in fact it probably gives you an advantage that week over GW32/33 WC) the trade off being that GW35 is gonna be harder to navigate depending on who blanks and who has the nicest fixtures of what does remain.

It's gonna be difficult to pick a partial team for GW35 in GW28, but I guess that there are 6 frees to use in the meantime, especially if you're not worried about stuffing your team with doublers or GW31 players.

The FH is a powerful chip, but if GW34 and 37 have similar desirable players then the nature of the free hit (resetting your team, losing a free) would be a disadvantage after the week is done.

WCs obviously don't have to be used to setup DGW BBs and I think I'll try over the weekend to see what a GW28 wildcard team would look like for me personally and how I would then be able to transition through 32 and into the doubles. That will make a good comparison for me between my semi-penciled in GW32 wildcard and I'll hopefully be able pin down the pros and cons in my circumstances.

Keep the thoughts coming though please Kuchi I'll be reading your RMT with interest!

[Kuchi]

Very rough draft was:

Pickford/McCarthy
Bauer/Robertson/Martina/Dawson/Mawson
Mhki/Walcott/Mane/Salah/Fletcher
Vardy/Aub/Kane

McC+Dawson could be Foster/Yoshida, Mane+Aub could be Erikson/Firmino.

Feel right now I am going round in circles and to be honest I feel the easier/safer idea is just to get Stoke/Everton players in now then WC32. Problem is that there are still a lot of question marks with games/form etc. Have three weeks before 28 starts so will keep playing around with it. There could be some ok bench options for the double in 34 with CPL maybe playing hud and BRI and Swansea playing SOU and EVE. Bench of those players for a boost might actually be ok.

Really have no idea what to do. Sanchez and Lingard could become Mhki and Erikson with 1 mil ITB too ....Too many options and each move leads to more questions/ideas. Feel almost like I am developing a split personality idea of wildcard 28 vs play it safe.

[Kuchi]

Still finding it hard to work out the points you will gain by wildcarding now compared to later on. My team right now has 2 players for 31, if I wildcarded I would be able to have at least 7 so one could VERY roughly argue that there is 20 points already, maybe 16 depending on how you want to look at it. Then shifting out Pope/Adrian/Otamendi/Dunk/Masuaku/Alonso (not 100% sure on this)/Jones (again not sure)/Sanchez/Lingard/Quarner with Sterling/Salah/Wilson/Kane staying. You would like to think that changing 11 players should be a huge gain overall. 34 can be covered from the FH and then you could plan to use transfers to get prepared for 35 onwards. I really don't know, am just going round in circles at this point so going to take a break

[Ruth_NZ]

Maybe just a few comments, though I didn't begin detailed planning yet (still feeling quite poorly).

ARSENAL

Arsenal are indeed a key team for a GW28 wildcard but perhaps my view on them is different to some others. What I see is a sea of positive fixtures from GW29 till GW38. Only GW36 (mun) is what you'd call a tough one. They won't have a BGW35 and they may or may not have a BGW31, depends how Leicester fare against Sheffield United. If they have a BGW31 then they have a nice double in GW34 but if not then they still have a decent SGW34 (new). They also have a nice SGW37 (BUR).

In other words, I am happy with the idea of using Arsenal players every week till the end of season, whether they have a DGW or not. The only weeks that are of concern are GW28 (would bench Bellerin), GW31 (will they play?) and GW36. It's too far away to know how things will look that late but it seems pretty likely that Arsenal will have something to play for late on - in fact of all the top 6 teams they are one of the most likely to still be needing wins in pursuit of a top 4 finish.

I guess you have to factor the EL in but Wenger has used the squad for that so far. The R32 is an easy draw anyway. There's a fair chance that they don't get serious opponents till the QF stage (April) and with no FA Cup they shouldn't exactly be over-stressed.

OK, so that probably means Bellerin, Mkhi, Aubayemang for me (though Ramsey is also to consider, as is Özil). I'd probably prefer it if Sheffield United knocked Leicester out* (meaning no blanks, no doubles for Arsenal) but it's the same number of games either way. GW31 will have to be a specific calculation which can be made with better precision in GW28. I don't much mind being short that week if there aren't that many fixtures surviving. The GW28 wildcard isn't primarily aimed at GW31.

So... Arsenal are a big plus for the GW28 wildcard. I'd plan to keep/play their players all through and am not obsessing about maximising the number of player/games. It's at least as important to maximise the quality of player/games in my view.

*This is the kind of thing I was commenting about with the Crellin spreadsheet, by the way. He gives an 80% likelihood of Leicester prevailing over Sheffield United. I think that's wrong. I'd put it at no better than 60%; Sheffield are a very decent Championship side with a good cup record and Leicester have Mahrez problems.

[Kuchi]

If Leicester do go out then that would be a huge plus for the 28 WC as most people right now might have a Ramsey/Mkhi. If they played in 31 that would be crazy. Can't remember where I posted it but as Ruth mentions about the SGW34 is fantastic same with 37. Actually think it might have been in a PM to Ruth where we need to ask the question of "how many players who only have 1 game would you want to lose when they have such good fixtures?" Liverpool in SGW34 have BOU, ok 37 is che but you never know.

Most people are using the tactic of just get players in from now to 31 which seems incredibly sensible and safe. Wildcarding just after makes sense and it is a solid/safe tactic. Who knows maybe we will get a couple of big shocks, Spurs out or something.

[baganboy]

Excellent thread, thanks Kuchi and others. Nothing to add to the discussion really. But I appreciate your ideas.

[Kuchi]

Still none the wiser and will have to wait and see with the FA cup games. If Arsenal doesn’t have a blank then I think that would be enough for me to do it but again still not sure. So many possible combinations to look at and this is a risk I am not sure I am willing to commit to unless I am very sure about the planning.

What I am still struggling to even get to is a rough points again vs points loss of the 28 vs later WC. From one of the rough teams I put together there would be a good opportunity for BB in 29. Monday night’s game of Chelsea against West Brom will be interesting too as they in theory could have a game in 31 (West Brom) and they are playing ok, four very nice fixtures to 33 and might play Bou in 31. If Arsenal have a game then I think you could make a very strong team for 28-33 and have a good enough team for 35, then FH 34. There is a possibility the second DGW isn’t that big so there might not actually be that many changes needed.

One reason I like about a later wildcard however is just more info. Who is pretty much relegated, who needs points, who is in the top 4, who is out the champions league etc. I wish I could give something concrete but right now I just have no idea. My spreadsheet suggested Everton, Southampton, Swansea, spurs and Liverpool for 28-31 so if I don’t wildcard I imagine it will be Sanchez and Lingard to Mane and Walcott. Other option is Otamendi and Lingard to Bauer and Walcott although this might change with FA cup surprises.

This really is getting to the business end of the season where some serious ranks can be gained …. Or lost …. Feels that this seasons is incredibly difficult to navigate compared to the previous few.

[Stemania]

Excellent thread, thanks Kuchi and others. Nothing to add to the discussion really. But I appreciate your ideas.

+1. Great to see you joining the RMT party Kuchi.

[Kuchi]

Should have really started it at the start of the season Its nice to have somewhere I can just post and get some feedback from people. Another really cool thing about the site

[Kuchi]

Couple of weeks since I have posted anything really. Been very sick, so has the whole family and a few other things have cropped up. FPL sadly has had to take a big back seat and honestly haven’t really been too interested/motivated. Oh well such is life.

My initial plan for these two weeks was to discuss a lot of WC28 stuff with Ruth and a few others but sadly that window has basically closed and I have done nothing. Not sure what the next few weeks will bring as I have so much on so will just be going with a rough plan to WC in 32. Frustrating as I think the WC in 28 has a lot of potential. Although I still agree with the idea that delaying it to 32 or even later could be more beneficial. Again we will just see how many points Ruth can accumulate before 32 or so. Really hoping it works out fantastically for him.

What I will do is just slowly get in the GW31 players I think are worth having at the right time and go from there. This week did Sanchez and Lingard to Mane and Erikson for -4. Had exact money and with Wilson am leaning towards Mane over Firmino. Different but I think there is potential there. Mahrez/Vardy I think are good options too but feel Erikson is the one I want to have for a few weeks.

Defence is rather depressing to look at really. This is why the WC would be so refreshing. Otamendi, Jones, Alonso I would be ok with losing but feel the most points to be made is from a midfield shuffle. Alonso might perform well over the next three. Jones I think I will keep for now, for the price he is very solid. Otamendi will probably go next week maybe for Bauer to free up some funds although nothing is set in stone. Will play both Otamendi and Alonso with the chance of some attacking rewards, who knows maybe with so many selling I will get lucky.

Salah will be captain although I think Spurs could do very well at Palace. Just leaning a little more towards Salah.

[Smurphy Paw]

Sounds a lot like my last fortnight. I don’t think one can catch the flu via FISO, but there’s been a fair few of us hit by the same thing.
Ironically, having more strongly articulated a case for a late WC, I thought that the FACup results played in to an early wildcard and had wondered how you were getting on. I didn’t have the concentration to do the analysis and come up with a decent team so have had to leave it for now by default!

[Kuchi]

Just haven't had the time/focus/concentration to really do what I feel is needed. Don't want to use the WC unless I am really behind it and right now I can't say that I am, not because I believe it isn't a good move but I just haven't got the required info done sadly. Will probably now just potter on and see how things go.

[Ruth_NZ]

Couple of weeks since I have posted anything really. Been very sick, so has the whole family and a few other things have cropped up. FPL sadly has had to take a big back seat and honestly haven’t really been too interested/motivated. Oh well such is life.

My initial plan for these two weeks was to discuss a lot of WC28 stuff with Ruth and a few others but sadly that window has basically closed and I have done nothing. Not sure what the next few weeks will bring as I have so much on so will just be going with a rough plan to WC in 32. Frustrating as I think the WC in 28 has a lot of potential. Although I still agree with the idea that delaying it to 32 or even later could be more beneficial. Again we will just see how many points Ruth can accumulate before 32 or so. Really hoping it works out fantastically for him.

That's a big shame and thanks for the good wishes. I had a horrible stomach flu myself that knocked me out for around 10 days or so but fortunately I started to feel better last weekend and have had enough time since then. It does take time, I have had to do quite a few bits and pieces of research and you also have to scan 11 gameweeks forward (just for the shape of things) whereas with a later wildcard you have fewer weeks to accommodate and also more precise information about the fixture schedule.

I had some nice PM exchanges with Frank Kessie (who is also wildcarding) and with some others in my RMT blog. I'll look forward to doing the same with you some time.

[Kuchi]

Apologies for not posting something here in a while things have been hectic and just dragged on. Wildcard now active and my rank is pretty much the same as it was a few weeks ago. GW31 was decent although my hit for Smith did nothing. Was always going to be a risk but I tend to play that way a bit more.

Wildcard I am pretty much set on with some plans for GW34 transfers and a rough Kane plan. As it stands:

DDG/Fabianski
Alonso/Smalling/VDH/Mustafi/Chilwell
Mahrez/Son/Willian/Salah/Mkhi
Vardy/Ayew/Auba

Current plan is to save a transfer then in 34 do Mkhi and Auba to Gross and Lukaku. Then bench boost in 37 for the Swansea fixtures. This is anything but safe but I am still 35 points off of the top 500 which is my aim. Will have 10 DGW players for 34 then FH in 35 then decide what to do after.

Closer to the time will look at Arsenal and City as their double is very attractive. Kane you would imagine is back for then so will just simply do what is needed at that point. Hopefully I can get enough points from 32-35 so if I had to throw a few hits at it then so be it from 36.

[Kuchi]

Wildcard went pretty well. Chilwell on the bench hurt and I was praying Mkhi wouldn’t come on. Would have been a nice extra 10 points but no point thinking about it now. Big question now is Kane. Tried to structure the team so that I had as much flexibility as possible. Had a look at it and Auba/Son to Lingard/Kane will work with 0.1 spare. Had originally planned Mkhi/Auba to Gross/Lukaku but also could do the United double up of Lingard/Lukaku but that seems a bit nuts.

I couldn’t do Mkhi/Auba to Lingard/Kane so not entirely sure. Won’t be making a move this week unless something crazy crops up. Captain will probably be Auba but will see what happens with the Champions League game for Salah.

[Kuchi]

With the current Salah situation have done him to Alli. Going to put all my eggs in the Spurs basket it looks like. Next week Mkhi and Auba to Lingard and Kane for -4 is the current plan. Auba captain this week.

[Kuchi]

89 (-4) with no chip used and only a small drop of 1700 to 1806 I would have bitten your hand off for before. FH35 and BB37 with a lot riding on Swansea. FH team is likely to be:

Butland/Hennesey
Baines/Bellerin/VVD/Long/Femenia
Mane/Salah(c)/Sterling/Sane/Zaha
Lacazette/Jesus/Crouch