Skip's sofa

[wylesy]

GW27 review:
Lots of things went well: Aguero (c), KdB, Salah, Firmino, VVD and the cherry on top was Lascelles coming off the bench for Alonso's no show. 109 points in a single game week is a nice jump. My rank has bounced between 15k and 50k for the last few weeks, it's either boom or bust every week without Kane it seems. Right now I'm at a season-high which sets things up well for the fixture shift and likely switching up the heavy hitters in my team.

Long term planning:

Unless something very unexpected happens in the FA Cup 5th round I plan to have 7-8 players in GW31 through transfers, then wildcard shortly afterwards. I do not have the FH chip available, so need to be smart about handling the other blank in GW35. I noticed that both Liverpool and Arsenal could help with this. Liverpool won't have a double in GW34 but their fixture is BOU home, then they will play WBA away in GW35. Arsenal's fixtures from GW32-35 are STO,SOT,new,WHU. Again no blank or double for them. I can imagine basing my team around 3 players from each of these teams to navigate the doubles and blanks.

GW28 planning:
Even with Aguero's hauls I am likely to transfer him out for Kane now. An Otamendi downgrade should fund this, but waiting on FA Cup games as I'd like to bring in someone with a GW31 fixture. Alonso likely stays and so does KdB. At some point soon I want to get rid of Elliot for Pickford and Lingard for Walcott but will need to work out how to fund that too.

Anyone else without a FH available like me and is working out how to manage things after GW31?

I’m in a similar position to you Skip as have used my FH and have a similar number of players for gmwk 31 currently. I’m going to wait on the FA cup as if Saints win they would really open me up to having 9/10 playing in gmwk 31 with all my transfers from here on included. I haven’t felt as if my team has suffered currently nor will it in the mean time as a result of focusing on gamewk 31

The real test will be gmwk 35 but that may not be too bad like you say if you plan and we may not have as many blanks in any event. Let’s keep in contact as we are navigating similar paths.

[SirMattBugsby]

This was recently discussed in the Fixtures Blanks Chips thread. A late WC (GW 35/36) could be a good option for those without free hit.

You basically use the WC as a free hit. Of course, you'll need to have a good team till then, which is plausible in your case.




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[skip]

This was recently discussed in the Fixtures Blanks Chips thread. A late WC (GW 35/36) could be a good option for those without free hit.

You basically use the WC as a free hit. Of course, you'll need to have a good team till then, which is plausible in your case.




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Wildcard for the blank in 35, or afterwards in 36? I can't see wildcarding in 35 working that well as every player picked won't have a double game week in 37. Or am I wrong here?

[skip]

Planning for the blanks & doubles:

Having used the FH already, and with a squad which is well set up at least through to GW31, there are 2 options for wildcarding. GW32 with a squad to manage 2 doubles and 1 blank game week, or GW36 with a squad based around the double in GW37. I know most managers will favor the earlier wildcard, but I'm getting more and more interested in saving until GW36 now.

Assuming Spurs go through, I have 5 players currently with a match in GW31. This will likely become 9 when I add say Kane, Pickford, Walcott, Stanislas and Bauer with the 5 free transfers I have until then.

By the looks of things I can ride this team through the double in GW34 and blank in GW35 and have a strong squad in both game weeks. Liverpool have a single game week in 34 (BOU) then play in 35 (wba) so I'd want all 3 of my LIV players to stay. Everton's 34/35 is swa/NEW so I can see having 1-2 from them staying. Stoke play whu/BUR so carrying a Stoke player like Bauer makes a lot of sense. Assuming that all GW31 blanks are rescheduled in GW34 (I know not guaranteed) then teams with attractive fantasy options look like this for GW34

Man City - BRI/tot
Man Utd - whu/WBA
Swansea - SOT/EVE
West Ham - MUN/STO
Spurs - NEW/MCI
Chelsea - bur/sot

Nothing amazing there to me. I'd be looking for 2 players from Man City and Spurs, then maybe 1 from Chelsea, Utd, Swansea and West Ham for GW34.

The other interesting team is Arsenal who play STK/SOT/new/WHU in GW31-35. I can see having 2-3 players from them for that run, and certainly 3 like Monreal, Ramsey, Aubameyang for GW35.

I'm pretty sure I can get a team that fits all this criteria using free transfers from GW31 to GW35 with no more than a couple of hits. Then wildcard in GW36, and triple captain Kane in 37. Bench boost could be GW38, or the double in 34 if necessary.

[skip]

GW28 transfers:
Aguero > Kane
Otamendi > Davies

I’m going to run with 3 Spurs and 3 Liverpool for the next few weeks. Chose Davies over a GW31 defender like Daniels as I think I’ll have 7-8 players in 31 easily which is sufficient. No need to make that move now.

Adrian
Alonso/VVD/Davies
Salah(c)/KDB/Son/Lingard
Kane/Firmino/Wilson

(Lascelles/Choupo-Moting/Masuaku/Elliot)

Good luck everyone!

[skip]

GW29

I'm rolling the FT this week, and hoping that both Lingard and Son start. Team is the same as last gameweek, looking strong with the 3 Liverpool and Spurs assets having a plum fixture. I'm really hoping Wilson does something for me, tempted to switch to Deeney as he's been so bad. Kane will get the armband over Salah, his upside is so high at home to Huddersfield.

Adrian
Alonso - VVD - Davies
Salah - KDB - Son - Lingard
Kane(c) - Firmino - Wilson

(Choupo-Moting/Lascelles/Masuaku/Elliot)

[SirMattBugsby]

Here we go again..

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[skip]

Hi everyone
Here's what I have for the new season. Seems early to be putting a side together given the world cup, and I can see some funny result patterns occurring early on before things start to settle down in October.

Patricio (Hamer)
Mendy - Van Dijk - Coleman (Boly, Wan-Bissaka)
Salah (c) - Mane - Richarlison - Jota (Stephens)
King - Zaha - Aguero

There's money in the bank here, so but I can't see where upgrades are needed so will probably save it.

Team building thoughts:

1. Wolves seem very underpriced across the board. Jota seems a standout option, then there's 4.5 value at GK and Def from what should be a top 10 team.
2. Liverpool will hit the ground running I think. In terms of value I think the best 3 are TAA, Sane and Keita. I picked Salah because there aren't better options at this stage, but am ready to move him for a high priced mid such as KdB or Hazard at the right time
3. Aguero is short term unless for some reason he is played every week. I expect he's going to start 2 out of 3 though. Will move him to another high priced attacker (Aubameyang?) after a couple of weeks
4. mid priced forwards look like pick 2 from Arnautovic, Zaha, King and Mitrovic. I have Josh King and Zaha now, but happy to change this if others show better form.
5. Coleman at 5.5 in a wing back focused everton team is a no brainer, or am I missing something?
6. Nearly went for Cedric at 4.5. So happy he's not in my team though.

[skip]

Quick update
GW1 - 84pts
GW2 - 79pts

My one transfer to date was Jota > BSilva last week, I think it's important to have 3 City players for the foreseeable future and Bernardo is very affordable.

Will be rolling a transfer this week

GW3 team

Hamer
Mendy - VVD - Coleman
Salah - Mane - Richarlison - BSilva
King - Zaha - Aguero
(Patricio-Boly-Stephens-AWB)

Salah (C) for the 3rd week in a row.

Unless unexpected things happen I may well bring in Hazard and Pedro next week for Chelsea's nice home fixtures.

[skip]

GW4 transfers were Richarlison and Salah OUT to Pedro and Hazard IN. Hopping onto Chelsea for their run. Early returns from both, and I'm ok losing Salah for the moment knowing I can wildcard him in if necessary.

Team for the international break is now

Patricio (Hamer)
Mendy - VVD - Coleman - Boly - AWB
Hazard - Mane - Pedro - BSilva (Stephens)
Aguero - King - Zaha

I may now get Alonso, although I don't think he'll keep scoring at anything like the rate he currently is.
Stephens and Coleman will lose 0.1 before next game week, but that's not a good enough reason to spend a transfer on them.

Going to hold my FT until after the internationals now.

[skip]

How I identify players based on stats

Thought I'd share this in case people find it interesting. I saw something similar to this last year that showed how each team's main players were performing on the same chart so created my own version using stats and Tableau. There are 3 metrics here

1. Shot Threat (Y-Axis). This is based on shots in the box, adjusted positively for big chances and downwards if the shot is a headed attempt
2. Chances Created (X-Axis). Simply chances created per 90 mins.
3. XG (size of marker for a player). Taken as XG per 90 mins, not including penalties.

The current view is GW1-4, including only players who have played 180 mins. This gets rid of outliers like Jesus and Wellbeck who otherwise would be off the scale.

Interesting how dominant Ings and Wilson for their teams.

Screen Shot 2018-09-07 at 2.27.25 PM.png

[skip]

Interactive version of the player stats here

https://public.tableau.com/profile/alex ... ublish=yes

[Patrician]

Wow. Best visual of the season so far! Nice one.


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[hancockjr]

Nice charts. Suggest you keep the axis scale the same for all charts so you can easily compare across as well as within graphs.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Yes, great charts, but agree with hancockjr re scaling. Interesting to see these as the season develops

[skip]

Thanks for the comments Patrician, Hancockjr & AR. I fixed all 3 axes to scale consistently and improved the labeling a little.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/alex ... ublish=yes

Screen Shot 2018-09-08 at 7.34.29 PM.png

Thoughts:

- A few players are showing strong numbers for both shots and chances created. This bodes well for consistent points scoring. Sarah, Mane, Ings, Aguero, Arnie all looking very good here
- Some teams have virtually no threatening players at all. See Newcastle, Huddersfield. Josh Murphy is doing ok at Cardiff. Leicester have been awful, and Ben Chilwell leads the way there some distance.
- Lucas Moura and Delle Alli have had similar goal threat to Harry Kane at Spurs. Normally Kane's shot threat is much higher. His chances created stands out though, suggesting he's becoming more involved in the build up but less threatening.

[ricardo68]

Very good stuff there skip! Just a quick question, what is the relevance of the size of the cross?

[skip]

Very good stuff there skip! Just a quick question, what is the relevance of the size of the cross?

That’s the xG of the player, penalties not included. Aguero is highest currently at 1.1 or so per game.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Great, thanks again. Arnie's figures seem to be holding up pretty well. Kind of frustrating as an Andre Gray owner to see the Watford chart given his lack of returns. Surprised not to see Hazard's name on the Chelsea chart.

[Patrician]

Charts are season so far, not per 90 min played I think. Hence Hazard missing


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[skip]

It's filtered to only show players who've played at least 2 games (180 mins). Here's Chelsea's chart including Hazard's current minutes

[skip]

We can see that Hazard and Pedro are having the same amount of threatening shots, but Hazard is creating far more chances. Pedro's xG is much higher at the moment suggesting he's getting into clearer positions than Hazard.

Also of note that Alonso is only creating 1 chance per 90 mins, and has an xG per 90 of 0.02. He's been very lucky to get the number of goals/assists that he has based on shots and chances created to date.

[skip]

After the IB my injury concerns are Coleman and Zaha. The former is really annoying as I kept him through poor Everton defensive form and a price drop thinking that he would start to score points, but now he has to go. I'm not worried about Zaha, he can stay for now and may even do well at Huddersfield.

Coleman > Alonso is certain, affordable because I lost Salah last week. I think I will take my first hit this season to go King > Wilson. This is entirely based on stats, namely Wilson's high shot volume in home games combined with his next 5 fixtures of LEI,bur,CRY,was,SOU. I was burned badly by him last year after holding him through 6-8 games of no returns, but am trying to overlook that and take a risk. Yes King may get a penalty and score, but I need to live with that.

GW5 provisional
Patricio
Mendy - Alonso - Boly
Hazard - Mane - Pedro - Silva
Aguero (c) - Wilson - Zaha

bench: Hamer - VVD - AWB - Stephens

[Aldershot Rejects]

I had a similar experience with Wilson last year and have been unwilling to even consider him until now but I think his stats and fixtures are too good to ignore so I have also bitten the bullet.

[blahblah]

After the IB my injury concerns are Coleman and Zaha. The former is really annoying as I kept him through poor Everton defensive form and a price drop thinking that he would start to score points, but now he has to go. I'm not worried about Zaha, he can stay for now and may even do well at Huddersfield.

Coleman > Alonso is certain, affordable because I lost Salah last week. I think I will take my first hit this season to go King > Wilson. This is entirely based on stats, namely Wilson's high shot volume in home games combined with his next 5 fixtures of LEI,bur,CRY,was,SOU. I was burned badly by him last year after holding him through 6-8 games of no returns, but am trying to overlook that and take a risk. Yes King may get a penalty and score, but I need to live with that.

GW5 provisional
Patricio
Mendy - Alonso - Boly
Hazard - Mane - Pedro - Silva
Aguero (c) - Wilson - Zaha

bench: Hamer - VVD - AWB - Stephens

I believe that Coleman has a Small Stress Fracture, which you may want to check out.......

[blahblah]

I had a similar experience with Wilson last year and have been unwilling to even consider him until now but I think his stats and fixtures are too good to ignore so I have also bitten the bullet.

Bournemouth players have always stunk out my FPL Squads, although I have a distant memory of some defender who got some attacking points, but then I probably bough him in time for his drought

Have you watched much of them, as their fixtures look kinda interesting until GW11. the quite reasonable (but not perfect) H\A Rotation with Ings may have a certain appeal except for the 4 GW's when they play the Manc clubs.

[skip]

I had a similar experience with Wilson last year and have been unwilling to even consider him until now but I think his stats and fixtures are too good to ignore so I have also bitten the bullet.

Bournemouth players have always stunk out my FPL Squads, although I have a distant memory of some defender who got some attacking points, but then I probably bough him in time for his drought

Have you watched much of them, as their fixtures look kinda interesting until GW11. the quite reasonable (but not perfect) H\A Rotation with Ings may have a certain appeal except for the 4 GW's when they play the Manc clubs.

I was thinking exactly this: Wilson's shooting numbers are really high but I haven't actually watched them play this year to know if he's playing any differently to last season. In a way I'm playing the market with the move as he's about to go up in price again and King is heading for his second drop. Fingers crossed.

[skip]

A few weeks ago I meant to captain Aguero but somehow forgot and missed out his hat-trick bonanza. This week I meant to captain him too, but accidentally left the armband on Hazard, who scored 40 points for me. I’ll take it.

[skip]

GW5 review - 82 points with Hazard scoring half of them. Would have been considerably better if I hadn't lost King for Wilson and -4, and had AWB's 9 points sitting on my bench.

I made the made transfers this morning somewhat rashly doing Pedro > Fraser and BSilva > DSilva for a -4. About an hour later read that Mendy is out for the foreseeable future which is annoying as I'd have taken him out instead of Pedro.

Now actually thinking about a wildcard to make a couple of additional minor moves.

Squad, without wildcarding, is

Patricio (Hamer)
VVD, Alonso, AWB (Boly, Mendy)
Hazard, Mane, D Silva, Fraser (Stephens)
Aguero, Zaha, Wilson

The moves I'd make if wildcarding would be
Mendy > Trippier
Hamer > 4.5 playing keeper
Boly > Doherty
VVD > Robertson, although not sure about this one
Could possibly upgrade Stephens, though apart from Brooks can't think of anyone better for a similar price.

Am I getting carried away? The sensible thing is probably to leave things as they are with a -4 and fix Mendy to Trippier next week.

[skip]

I've updated my teams shot and chances created metrics for the last 4 games, with some observations:

EDIT to read the chart: very dark X's represent high goal conversion rates, lighter colors are lower conversions.

* Aguero the standout performer for shot volume: 16 inside the box over his last 4. Only 5 on target and only 1 a big chance though.
* Other notable players for shot volumes: Hazard, Vardy, Salah, Kane
* Very high and likely unsustainable goal conversation rates from Aubameyang (50%), King (42%), Murray (40%), Hazard (38%), Lacazette (30%)
* High shot volume but very low goal conversation rates from Josh Murphy (11%), Richarlison (10%), Mitrovic (6%), Aguero (11%), Salah (8%), Jimenez (8%). I expect these to start hitting the back of the net soon, especially the proven goal-scorers.
* Arsenal’s goal conversion across the team is really high with no players being standout for shots or chances created. This suggests Arsenal’s output will slow down against better defences.
* Teams really struggling offensively, with no players outside the 1st quadrant; are Burnley, Palace, Huddersfield, Newcastle. High chance for clean sheets playing against these teams. Man Utd are in trouble here too.
* Players who score well for both shots and chances created are a source of consistent points from goals, assists and bonus. Notables here are Hazard, King, Wilson, Sigurdsson, Sterling, David Silva, Bernardo Silva, Arnautovic, Jimenez

Screen Shot 2018-10-08 at 3.43.32 PM.png