RMT ZeroRemorse

[ZeroRemorse]

Interested in hearing some ways I could improve my team. I have a FT, which is likely going to be Sane Coutinho then the following week that Everton kid Quaner Lewin.

I have 0.8m in the bank. TV is 105.7m

[No Way Jose]

looks quality mate. impressive TV

basically template of what we are all moving towards with slight variations in personnel. I'd say small room for improvement in your keepers, but may be worth seeing if there is a short term upturn in form for WBA under pardew first. Quaner to DCL will be a good move and mbemba needs to be upgraded for the christmas period so femenia/mariappa, dunk/duffy, dummett when he returns this next week or so are all good moves

[ZeroRemorse]

looks quality mate. impressive TV

basically template of what we are all moving towards with slight variations in personnel. I'd say small room for improvement in your keepers, but may be worth seeing if there is a short term upturn in form for WBA under pardew first. Quaner to DCL will be a good move and mbemba needs to be upgraded for the christmas period so femenia/mariappa, dunk/duffy, dummett when he returns this next week or so are all good moves

Thanks for the feedback. I agree about the keeper situation, it's one of those FT's I don't want to waste, but it looks like I will need to use a transfer on either Elliot or Foster soon. I think I will look at Losel from HUD, their fixtures are clearing up soon and he's bound to bring in some save points. Adrian might also be a cheeky addition after his solid performance vs Chelsea at 4.3m

Alonso has been somewhat of a frustrating addition to my squad, he costs a lot of money and isn't producing as consistently as I expected. Subbed at 54th minute tonight after a YC.. If I were to downgrade a player it would be him, but looking ahead at his fixtures, I don't really want to do that, I will probably ride the wave.

I used this weeks transfer to bring in Sane Coutinho, as I think he will be a great asset going forward from here. I feel City are losing some momentum and Sane is playing too far wide currently, statistically he isn't getting the touches/shots in the box as earlier on.

[sagorjanski]

Sick TV.

I think Gomes is a good pick, if you want alternatives to Adrián. Might even nick a penalty save (Watford do seem to lack discipline).

[ZeroRemorse]

The current state of my team. 0 FT (0.0m ITB), I'm thinking about bringing in a Spurs MF and WHU back/Adrian.

[baganboy]

As requested - here goes.

IMHO, you are severely restricting your team by over-thinking about team value.
I haven't seen your team so cannot comment in detail. But one of the great fallacies in FPL is overthinking about Team Value in the second half of the season. That, and thinking of one's team as a sort of a permanent monolith.
A general thumb rule is that - the first half of the season is about making TV, and the second half is about burning it to get the most points you can.

I will explain.
Remember RNZ's comment

Those that just had Salah in that slot all through will beat me hands down over the season. I just have to try to beat them over the remaining 18 games and having a rotation position in my midfield may be a way to do that. We'll see. I think Salah's production will slow down. If it doesn't I will be facing an uphill climb.

He is right. Salah's score over the season does not matter anymore, except for academic purposes. All that matters now for your team is the maximum score that can be got from the Salah-shaped individual slot in your team. And it becomes infinitely simple to plan to get more points than someone who has a player permanently slotted into a position in your team.

Assume: You think that Alli is a better pick than Salah for the next 4 GWs - but perhaps Salah is best for the next 6.
Now you have 2 choices. Either sit with your team value intact, and play Salah for all 10. Or play Alli for 4 GWs, during which you release money from elsewhere (say DCL Quaner --- and there will always be such effective 3-5 GW solutions among cheaper players that you can utilize. 4GWs is a long time to plan) and then get Salah in at your 5th GW. Sure, you have weakened your bench now (but who cares? The real value of your bench is during Christmas mayhem). But you have utilized the TV you have (and shed some imaginary profit) to have got the maximum points for that Salah slot for these 10 GWs.

Your team is not a permanent monolith. It is an ever-changing organism. Salah's score over the season is immaterial. Even Salah's score over the next 18 GWs is immaterial. The only thing that matters is how you have been able to utilize the Salah-shaped slot in your team (and 10 other such slots).
I hope this explains.

(The corollary is that, again taking the above example, maybe Salah is a great pick for 9 of the 10 GWs, and Alli is better for only 1. Would you rather hold on to Salah or change to Alli even for that one GW? In this case, if you think that Alli will get more than 4 points greater that Salah for that one GW, only then is the move feasible - because you need to take that DCL hit to get Salah back again.
See what I did there? I converted your TV concern to a points concern. Because points are all that matter now.)

My view about Salah (the player as opposed to the slot) is immaterial here, so would not share.

[baganboy]

PS: for some reason, I am not able to see your team. Can others?

[Smurphy Paw]

Hopping over To follow this thread, there’s the potential to only make this about Salah. Ruth considers Hazard’s position to be untouchable. He has the benefit of seeing him play week in week out. For me, I think he’s either a set and forget, or someone to bring in the week that he catches one of his runs of hit point scoring form. (Disclaimer: I’m about to trigger one of those runs by dropping him, not Salah!)

I believe that your initial comment was that you had cash tied up in Hazard as well. Whilst that feels like a loss when selling, it’s actually a gain, to reiterate the point made by and much better articulated by BB. Having a lot tied in to one player can be a hassle, but never more than 2 transfers to resolve. The alternative of banking value does give flexibility at any point in time, but it doesn’t alter the basic mechanics that, at the point of selling the player, the same profit was made/perceived loss was incurred.

What I’m interested in is why there is a desire to ship out Salah as compared to Hazard at the moment. I’ve seen it mentioned a lot, even FFFix advised me to do it. Is there something that I am missing?

[Ruth_NZ]

What I’m interested in is why there is a desire to ship out Salah as compared to Hazard at the moment. I’ve seen it mentioned a lot, even FFFix advised me to do it. Is there something that I am missing?

Yeah. Hazard has way better fixtures.

[Smurphy Paw]

What I’m interested in is why there is a desire to ship out Salah as compared to Hazard at the moment. I’ve seen it mentioned a lot, even FFFix advised me to do it. Is there something that I am missing?

Yeah. Hazard has way better fixtures.

Good job

C1ACCBD2-DB9B-400F-B4AC-B2B758852AA7.jpeg

(I have both)

[Ruth_NZ]

Dear baganboy...

This is a bit condescending isn't it?

See what I did there? I converted your TV concern to a points concern. Because points are all that matter now.

Anyway, I think you are simplifying things in an arbitrary way. This matter is about balancing short-term with long-term considerations. Say someone bought Salah at 9.0 and sells now for £9.5m to get a DGW Spurs player. Well, if they subsequently want Salah back they will need to find an extra £0.6m all of a sudden (assuming prices stay where they are). That's plain fact. You can argue that it's possible - and of course it is possible - but of course it is also to the long-term detriment of your team because you now have £0.6m less budget available to use elsewhere.

It also has to be considered that getting Salah back under those circumstances requires 2 additional FTs, so 3 in total. FTs have a value as well. So now we have £0.6m and 3 FTs being spent; that is the actual cost of your possible short-term points gain with the Spurs midfielder. You then need to calculate whether that is worthwhile, bearing in mind that the cost is certain from the moment you make that first move whereas the benefit is completely uncertain. Therefore just to say...

...the first half of the season is about making TV, and the second half is about burning it to get the most points you can.

...without any of these considerations being mentioned strikes me as quite simplistic. In addition...

...it becomes infinitely simple to plan to get more points than someone who has a player permanently slotted into a position in your team.

...is another big simplification. It isn't simple at all. And if I had bought Salah at £9.0m I wouldn't dream of trying to do it. But to me he is a £10m player and I think I have a decent chance of beating that use of £10m by the method I described. A decent chance. It isn't surefire and it isn't simple. It is also quite risky, Salah has been punishing me for not owning him all season and will continue to do so if I get it wrong.

You are therefore wrong, in my opinion, to say that TV is there to be burnt for points. Once we get past GW33 maybe but not in GW20. At this stage, TV is reflective of the advantage you have gained by getting some high-performance players early. Sell them and you give half of that advantage away. It seems wise to therefore think twice before doing so.

[baganboy]

Not condescending at all. At all. Might I mention, this is the second time in ten years and nearly five thousand posts that I have been accused of condescention at FISO. Both times from you, R_NZ. Do you dislike me for some reason? Tell me. I will see if something can be done.

ZR, no condescention was meant to you. Obviously. But I guess you know that already, from reading your message sent to me in response.

The rest of the response is TL;DR, R_NZ. This is 3AM in India. Tomorrow.

[baganboy]

Has a quick read.
Know what, R_NZ, I shared my consideration, and you shared yours. Both in some detail. Perhaps, therefore, we can just leave them there. Others can use them as data points, take from that what they may, use their own judgement, and make up their own mind.
As always, I considered (and consider) your points, even if I don't agree with them, as I don't right now. But these mobius strip discussions don't interest me as much as they used to anymore.

[Ruth_NZ]

Not condescending at all.

Fine, it read that way to me, that's why I asked. Maybe my reading is poor. But hey, I'm not your mother. It was just an observation and if it was a false one then please disregard it.

As for the rest, I don't know that anything I write should be a "data point" for anyone else because it's opinion and analysis rather than data. But I don't want to argue this either. Clearly there is truth in the thrust of your argument about not being constrained by TV (real or cosmetic). I just thought it only represented one side of the equation is all.

[Gambit]

- but of course it is also to the long-term detriment of your team because you now have £0.6m less budget available to use elsewhere.

is that guaranteed though Ruth?

It's always seemed to me that as the season goes on you never need all your budget because there are nearly always budget/cheaper options that mean you can have a great team that is achievable without the full budget. I've seen very few of the current top world teams spending all their budget and I don't think because you have 0.5 less to spend you are necessarily worse off, if you get the right player(s) you can still be better off despite having less money to spend.

I don't think there is a right/wrong answer, but over the years I've seen plenty of players (and done it myself) holding on too long to a player because they don't want to lose the value or have to buy them back at a higher price, when switching to a red hot player and losing 0.5 would've been the better decision.

[No Way Jose]

Me with holding onto richarlison while watford were stinking it up and lingard and arnautovic caught fire is a good example. Balancing stats and eye test warranted patience, TV and moving ahead of the fixtures is seemingly the best way to go but you win some you lose some

[Ruth_NZ]

Agree with all that. It's not guaranteed. But FPL have been increasing the number of premium players for a while now and this season a lot of them are performing well. My own team has a TV of better than £104m and my budget is still stretched, I could happily use another £2m.

The issue changes after GW33 because we are then into the DGW sequences and it is unknown which teams will be involved. But up until then I think budget needs preserving. Shouldn't make you hold on to a player too long but we were talking about Salah and Sterling. It would be hard to recommend losing either of those long-term and therefore the budget consideration has to apply I think.

[Gambit]

I recently lost TV when I sold Hazard for Sterling, so although my TV went down my points went up as he massively outscored Hazard - had I sat on my hands and done nothing because of the value I had invested in Hazard I'd be far worse off. Admittedly Hazard could soon eat into those gains but I can always bring him back.

The other thing to consider is that if you make a good move and get the right player they can increase in value and you can make your losses back.

edit - wrote that before I saw your response

Agree about Salah and Sterling, not really players to jump on and off at the moment

[Smurphy Paw]

So, ZR, you were wanting advice on your team then?

If it was me I’d save the transfer this week. Next week in a double switch I’d
(1) Move out Hazard for Eriksen. If you have value in Hazard (currently £10.8m and falling, starting £10.5m) you’re only looking for a double rise from Eriksen to make up the difference to get him back in and that degree of flux between the two is possible by the end of GW22/23 so long as you don’t spend the cost difference on someone else (you have a Top-2k finish, I’m over-explaining and I’m not sure it is or need be to you!)
(2) For change 2 purchasing price becomes a consideration, but with zero transfers in the bank there’s no real advantage in getting in Adrian to hold over the blank game week as many have done. That means moving away from one of your defenders and initially, because he’s flagged, I say Smalling. By GW22 he may not be of course, but I have suggested moving one of your mid/high value defenders to cater for price fluctuations. Smalling to, say, Ogbonna will leave you the best part of £1m in the bank. That’d cover the £0.1m or so max extra to get Hazard back should you so wish; and plenty to pick up a good defender.

The following is my take on the midfield discussion:
As for which of Salah, Hazard, Sanchez, KdB, Eriksen, ANOther will light up the back half of the season, if could be all of them, one will probably fail, I hope it’s not ‘my’ favourite, etc, etc. We all know that’s the perverse attraction of the game.
I do think that Hazard will go on a run again at some point and I am prepared to be a week or two late to the party because this year I personally think that Eriksen or KdB can match/run him close for points over the medium term. I’d invest the saving to make sure that my defensive replacement was an upgrade. Taking that approach I’d hop on to, say, Stones when he comes back (leaving a bit left in the bank for a rainy day). Jones would be the like for like option. Etc.

Hope this helps

[ZeroRemorse]

PS: for some reason, I am not able to see your team. Can others?

Speroni/Elliot

Alonso/Otamendi/Smalling/Kenny/Memba

Hazard/Salah/Sterling/Arnautovic/Lingard

Kane/Firmino/DLC

A general thumb rule is that - the first half of the season is about making TV, and the second half is about burning it to get the most points you can.

Not quite. TV is still very important in the later stages of the season. The way I see it is LFC are going to get a DGW due to UCL and I'm going to want Salah during that period and much before, so that means if I drop him now, I'm going to have fewer funds for my next WC and sabotage my TV for what I think will be a weaker team for the DGW BB too, that's just one issue among many.


Other issues;

-He's still in form and making points regardless of the opposition.
-His ownership
-There's no obvious replacement for him currently
-Bringing him back in would require surgery and cause me squad problems
-Other priority transfers could arise, like injuries and suspensions that could leave me stuck with a squad I'm not content with.
-He's still gaining me value

Assume: You think that Alli is a better pick than Salah for the next 4 GWs - but perhaps Salah is best for the next 6.
Now you have 2 choices. Either sit with your team value intact, and play Salah for all 10. Or play Alli for 4 GWs, during which you release money from elsewhere (say DCL Quaner --- and there will always be such effective 3-5 GW solutions among cheaper players that you can utilize. 4GWs is a long time to plan) and then get Salah in at your 5th GW. Sure, you have weakened your bench now (but who cares? The real value of your bench is during Christmas mayhem). But you have utilized the TV you have (and shed some imaginary profit) to have got the maximum points for that Salah slot for these 10 GWs.

I understand your point about Alli outscoring Salah then getting Salah back in but, weakening my bench is a concern because I like to have 2 rotatable players and fodder (Memba). You have to take into consideration the points potentially scored by the other player I would have to downgrade in order to bring Salah back in, let's use DLC Quaner for example, I believe DLC is going to outscore Quaner, so I'm potentially missing out on those points too. The bench isn't just for the Christmas period, it's also great rotation tool to maximize points if you spread your funds correctly. I don't want to burn what I've made on bench fodder because I have to bring back in a premium asset I bailed on just for a few gameweeks at a big loss. This also requires using FT's and possibly hits in a scramble to get Salah back in, who could be out off further reach if he returns unexpectedly against Man City etc, City will be lucky to keep a clean sheet at Anfield and Burnley have struggled defensively in their last 2 letting 5 in, so it's very possible Salah will make an impact.

I'm aware the squad is not a monolith and I've never treated it as such. If you could see my images of my team you will see they're quite different and I have taken hits over the last month. There are some players I consider set and forget (fixture proof) and those are the ones I have money tied up in and I think are going to continue doing the business (Hazard, Salah, Kane, Alonso).

Overall I think dropping Salah is an unnecessary gamble and expensive gamble thanks to my early ownership. That's the point I was making in Ruths thread, I have a lot more to lose. I could end up sabotaging my team and future plans for a hunch I'm maximizing my points for that slot by dropping him temporarily and that Salah is going to slow down, it's all guesswork here when I can use other slots in my squad to try to maximize points at smaller cost, I don't want to drop a performing asset.

Hopping over To follow this thread, there’s the potential to only make this about Salah. Ruth considers Hazard’s position to be untouchable. He has the benefit of seeing him play week in week out. For me, I think he’s either a set and forget, or someone to bring in the week that he catches one of his runs of hit point scoring form. (Disclaimer: I’m about to trigger one of those runs by dropping him, not Salah!)

I believe that your initial comment was that you had cash tied up in Hazard as well. Whilst that feels like a loss when selling, it’s actually a gain, to reiterate the point made by and much better articulated by BB. Having a lot tied in to one player can be a hassle, but never more than 2 transfers to resolve. The alternative of banking value does give flexibility at any point in time, but it doesn’t alter the basic mechanics that, at the point of selling the player, the same profit was made/perceived loss was incurred.

What I’m interested in is why there is a desire to ship out Salah as compared to Hazard at the moment. I’ve seen it mentioned a lot, even FFFix advised me to do it. Is there something that I am missing?

Hazard might be the one to make way for one game, I noticed he just dropped from 10.9m to 10.8m, this gives me a selling price of 10.6m. The risk is there though, I'm remembering what Hazard did last season vs Arsenal. I will immediately want Hazard back after the Spurs DGW for Lei (H), I believe he's in good form and it's only a matter of time before he cuts loose.

I think the hype around dropping Salah is purely down to fixtures and he hasn't been as rotated as much as the others. Klopp said he's naturally very fit but everyone needs a rest.

BUR (A)
CITY(H)

Then 2 away fixtures to teams that sit back SWA (A) and HUD (A)

probably have people thinking he won't return as much, they could be right, they could be wrong. The positions he's getting into, I wouldn't want to bet against him, so I'm not going to.

[baganboy]

Other issues;

-He's still in form and making points regardless of the opposition.
-His ownership
-There's no obvious replacement for him currently
-Bringing him back in would require surgery and cause me squad problems
-Other priority transfers could arise, like injuries and suspensions that could leave me stuck with a squad I'm not content with.
-He's still gaining me value

My view about Salah (the player as opposed to the slot) is immaterial here, so would not share.

[baganboy]

ZR, since you were considering removing Salah, I gave you the example,and comparison to Alli. A couple of your points are about Salah the player as opposed to the slot / the TV concept. That's a separate discussion.

Also, I do not for a moment think that Alli will outscore Salah for any length of time. it was an assumption to make a point.

[ZeroRemorse]

Here's a quick update. Hoping to hear from some people if there are players in my squad that are not nailed or any other issues that might arise.


Future plans will be;

Aguero Firmino after City play Leicester

McArthur Allen/Choupo/Shaqiri or a Bournemouth MID

Smalling undecided

Lingaard Walcott

[No Way Jose]

team looks good mate. bench is well prepared for a few upcoming weeks and bar sanchez you have the big guns everyone wants. Is this a WC team or have you just nailed your team evolution?

I like the coverage you have for GW31 too without compromising your first 11

[ZeroRemorse]

team looks good mate. bench is well prepared for a few upcoming weeks and bar sanchez you have the big guns everyone wants. Is this a WC team or have you just nailed your team evolution?

I like the coverage you have for GW31 too without compromising your first 11

Cheers!

I did wildcard. I owned Mahrez and Arnie and Kenny etc so I felt it was a good time to and feel I can prepare a good team for the DGWs and BGWs now. I still have TC, BB and FH left to play.

Been stuck on having Sanchez or Hazard. A real head scratcher. But after United's performance and recent results I don't have the confidence to sink that much into a United asset yet. Hoping Lingard can provide some sort of coverage for the HUD and NEW games.

[No Way Jose]

Yeah fair call. As a United fan I'm not clamouring to get him. We are a bit disjointed in attack of late. Happy to lose out on that one. Hedging my bets in a way with lingard

For you I would say you're in a great position now to slowly accumulate GW31 players to add to what you have. Your planned moves are good. I'd consider VVD for smalling, Maguire, burnley defenders from 27-36

How do you plan to use your remaining chips?

[ZeroRemorse]

How do you plan to use your remaining chips?

I have a rough idea. TC is the chip I'm wondering about the most. Because it's looking like FH DGW34 and BB DGW37 or vice versa. I may end up using it (TC) on Salah or Firmino in BGW31 to give me that extra boost during that BGW or BGW35.

If I like the look of my team for the DGW34 I may save the FH chip for the BGW35 or DGW37 and use the TC or BB in DGW34.

It feels like a chip too many this season.


Also before I play my LH chip, I'm going to use some FTs to prepare for the GW following the FH, so my squad doesn't revert back to a bad line up for that GW - I think that's an important fact people need to consider when using the FH chip, it's not just a single GW chip but having to prepare for a series of GW's.

[ZeroRemorse]

WC was successful, I scored 64 and green arrows even with a blank from Aguero (C) and have a full playing squad that's prepared for the upcoming GW's. I'm going to save my FT and decide what to do later in the month after UCL and FA cup games are all played.

A few regrets would be picking Lingard over Shaq and not having at least one good keeper.

I decided who to bench out of Fernandez and Bauer based on bookies odds of a CS and form, even though Swansea have only kept 1 CS in 10 games and Stoke a few in the last 5 the bookies have Swansea likely to keep a cleanie, I think so too as I don't rate Burnley going forward and I think Brighton will attack Stoke. Chances are Alonso is rested for Barca and Bauer comes on anyhoo.

[ZeroRemorse]

The team going into this GW, brought in Firmino, VVD and Mahrez (-4) in place of Alonso, Lingaard and Aguero. 1.6m banked, going to keep it until the best options for the DGW are obvious. Considering another Spurs mid and defender and considering upgrading Sterling to De Bruyne, I was considering Arsenal players, but probably not anymore. Everton mids don't interest me (yet).

Slight selection dilemma is Smalling or Francis.

Probably next transfer, Smalling Vert/Spurs DF.

Capping Kane for the higher ceiling and differential.

[ZeroRemorse]

A quick update on the past GW, managed 65 points (small green arrows), one regret was picking Ramsey over Son, but it's OK, leaves me with funds to bring in who I need towards the DGW's.




Here's the team for the next GW, probably going to roll the transfer, or pick up a new GK. Does anyone have any suggestions? I've been holding out for De Gea I think, Ryan could be an option too, but Brighton's defence has been very questionable.