ARs Thinking Space

[Smurphy Paw]

How about starting 4 at the back, getting (say) Roberts in for £4m as back up defence and putting the money further upfield? There would seem to be more upside in Ramsey than the defensive downside

[TheBigLewandowski]

AR - what about Gudmondsson of Burnley? Think he's cheaper than that also?

[Aldershot Rejects]

Thanks guys. Both decent ideas, although I would worry that Roberts won't play. 0.1m short of Long and Ramsey and I think of all the value I leached with bench fodder losing value (0.4m on Surman for instance, who is now back and picking up points).

[Aldershot Rejects]

Final Rank: 636. Got to be happy with that.

Only disappointment is second in my main money league although I reduced a deficit of 85 after GW35 to 13 at the end. If only I'd used my hit to bring in Perez rather than Alonso - I'd be £250 richer Given the guy outplayed me for most of the season that would probably have been unfair though.

Will probably try and capture some thoughts to come back to next year over the next couple of weeks, but other than that time for a break.

Thanks to everyone who has offered suggestions this season. They've been a great help.

[TheBigLewandowski]

636 - that is some going, so hats off to you on what has been a great season. Hopefully we can all come back refreshed again in August, after a relaxing break off to recharge the batteries!

[blahblah]

Indeed re OR: it wasn't that long ago you just wanted inside 1k?

[No Way Jose]

Fantastic season and arguably the most deserved rank on here from why I’ve seen

I considered similar tactics early but went with the herd as I tend to do! Will try and take your tactics on board more for next season!

[SirMattBugsby]

Hah! I love it when numbers have symmetry to them.

Great rank AR! Your tactics were eye-opening to my ignorant a** and I'm happy you started this RMT. Hope you have a relaxing break

[Linch]

Conrgatulations!! Nice season.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Season Review: Part 1 - Captains

I'm mainly writing for myself here so that I capture my thoughts but feel free to comment on your experience of captains this year.

The basic stats are this:

Total Captaincy Points: 259
Appearances: 41 (3 dgw)
Average: 6.3 ppg

This is certainly an area I could have improved on by simply captaining Salah every week.

Overall I captained Salah on 14 occasions and Kane 13 times. Salah scored 136 pts (9.78ppg) and Kane 48 pts (3.7 ppg). In the 13 games I captained him, Kane scored 4 goals which is pretty impressive especially as it tended to be against weeker opposition. At some point, I might compare Kane's stats against the top 6 teams with his stats against the bottom 6. Of course, I triple captained Kane in GW37 and should probably be happy with 8 pts.

For some reason although Salah came into my side in GW4, I only captained him once before GW19 and that was GW12 when he scored 16. You would think that by then I would have learned my lesson.

In the early part of the season Lukaku, Aguero and Hazard had 3 captaincy appearances each and scored a healthy 62 points, including Hazard's 15 pointer in GW15.

Morata was captained in GW10 and scored 5, I went with Hernandez in GW4 for 2 points (still have no idea why I did that and Kane scored 13 points that week). Finally, Mahrez had a run as captain in GW33 and GW34 (although that was a genuine mistake!) and contributed the grand total of 6 points in 3 matches.

In a season such as the last one, identifying Salah early as perma-captain would have bolstered my ranking. I know that it is not a popular strategy and like many I didn't really believe that Salah's form would continue but when someone is scoring consistently highly it seems foolish to have bet against him.

I guess the other lesson is that jumping on and off Kane as captain is a lottery; you'll probably do better with him as perma-captain although I am not convinced that he scores well enough to do that. In fact, if he is priced at £13m again next year, I will probably duck him completely at the start of the season.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Season Review: Part 2 – Goalkeepers

Total GK Points: 180
Appearances: 41 (BB & DGW)
Average: 4.4 ppg

I’m pretty happy with this. Given my spend on goalkeepers. DDG had a ppg of 4.6, which is equivalent to about 8 more points than I managed over the season and he comes at a premium. Klavan also averaged the same over the second half of the season.

My main keepers were Foster (GW 1-5; 4.4 ppg), Fabianski (GW 6-16; 4.7 ppg) and Pope (GW 17-34; 4.7 ppg); from GW35-38, I doubled up on Lloris & Klaven and they provided 33 pts from 6 starts. Elliott/Adrian & Lossl shared the other appearances averaging a shade under 3ppg.

The overall season stats suggest that this is the one category of player where some of the budget option match the premium options. It’s finding the right budget option that is the key.

[Joccki_10]

I went with Hernandez in GW4 for 2 points (still have no idea why I did that and Kane scored 13 points that week).

I do know why.

[Aldershot Rejects]

I went with Hernandez in GW4 for 2 points (still have no idea why I did that and Kane scored 13 points that week).

I do know why.

Don't tell me I followed your advice

[Albert_ini]

Klavan also averaged the same over the second half of the season.[/i]

*Karius

[MoSe]

you wer not included in the overall Rank graphs, as you were not in the Fiso Forum League this season
viewtopic.php?p=3198550#p3198550
I mentioned you anyway tho, as you'd have been 13th in the all-fiso ranking

so, here's one all for you

FPL 1718 AR.png

[Aldershot Rejects]

Team Planning: Building Blocks:

So, a new season beckons … It is still very early days, but at the moment, this is where I am at. As always, the mere act of trying to capture and write down my strategy and picks is a useful one for myself.

1 – Given all the uncertainty around, planning for a GW5 WC when the season has begun to settle down seems wise. This means building a team specifically for the first 4 GWs. Having said that, if I can avoid WCing too early in the season I would also like to do that. So I will plan for the first 4 GWs whilst hoping my team is flexible and resilient enough to adapt early on to whatever is thrown at it.

2 – I am choosing to avoid players who participated in the quarter-finals of the World Cup. This probably affects £9m+ midfielders more than any other category, ruling out over half the candidates and leaving Salah, Sanchez, Mane, Sane and Mahrez. To be honest I’m slightly nervous of anyone who played in the WC but that might be being overly cautious.

3 – I’m trying to avoid too many punts, so I am pretty much discounting players who are new to the Premiership or settling into new teams apart from at the budget end. I am suspicious of newly promoted clubs; very few players translate strong individual performances in the Championship to high point scoring in the Premiership. Whilst there seem to be some attractive options here, I’d rather wait for three or four weeks to see how they adjust.

This is particularly relevant in the sub £7m midfielder category where a whole host of players have been flagged up. Jota, for instance, sounds interesting, and I have a feeling Junior Hoilett will do well. But I don’t have a crystal ball and I have no way of knowing which players in this category will prove to be gold and which will be Bosellis. I’d rather stick with tried and tested options.

4 – Ruth’s idea of benchmarks (brief description on page 83 of his RMT) lies in the background of a lot of my thoughts, although I have tweaked his values a bit. There are also similarities with Baganboys’ approach, although I am far less disciplined than he is. In practice, this means having a target ppg in mind for each position and price point.

5 Goalkeepers: Personally, I don’t think that the marginal gain of picking a premium goalkeeper is worth the extra price. I’m still not completely decided on whether to go 2x4.5 and rotate or pick a 4.0/4.5 combo. I suspect budget constraints will push me towards the second option.

6 Defenders: Spending more money on defence seems to be in vogue at the moment. Personally, I remain committed to an expensive defence mainly focused on the top 6 sides. One reason for this is that I know that I can successfully manage a team built in this way.

Essentially, when I look for defenders, I am looking for clean sheets and proven attacking/bp potential. I would expect the top 6 sides to achieve a cs rate of 40-50% over the season, whereas the rest of the field probably won’t manage 1 cs in 3 (and yes I know that rotation will lift that proportion, but I just don’t do rotation very well). In runs of fixtures against ‘weaker’ sides, the cs rate for the top sides might climb above 50%. Given that the two Manchester clubs, Chelsea & Liverpool all have good fixture runs from the start, this is where I will start.

On top of that, I also look for players who have a proven record in terms of attacking returns/bps. My mental target is 1ppg when appearance and cs points are stripped out. So, a 40% cs rate plus 1 extra ppg equates to 4.6ppg. It may well be that eventually the 5.5m price point turns out to be best value for defenders (as per last season) but at the moment I think I have more confidence in the £6m+ players so I will focus my attention there. My intention is to play 4 at the back. For my fifth defender I am hoping to raid the £4m price band.

7 Premium Attackers: One of the things that the benchmark approach suggests is that once a player hits £10m, it becomes hard to get value for money without regular captaincy. It is a simple matter of maths. Having said that, I think it is possible to justify 2 premiums, if only to give you captaincy alternatives. For the sake of flexibility I’m going with one midfielder and one attacker.

Incidentally, I think it is very hard to get value for money out of Harry Kane over a whole season. At 12.5m, you need to look for 250ish points (with almost perma-captaincy) which is probably equivalent to 35+ goals in a season.

8. Attackers: . I tend not to distinguish too greatly between forwards and midfielders, I’m more concerned about finding the right players to fit the budget. On the whole, I tend to think midfielders return more per pound than attackers which would weight my remaining selections towards midfielders, but conversely, I am loathe to pick any of the £4-5m attackers even for the bench which pushes me towards a 4-3-3. As the season progresses, I have a feeling that best value will be found in the £7m-£8m range.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Current Team

So after all of that, this is where I have ended up at the moment.

G1: £4.5m. Probably Fabianski but not yet decided.

G2: £4.0m. To be decided.

D1: Azpilicueta/Alonso . The likelihood that Chelsea will go four at the back means that I am leaning slightly towards Azpilicueta at the moment.

D2: Robertson. Was immense for me in the last third of the season.

D3: To be decided. Currently on Otamendi. Slightly worried about his start-time although with both Kompany and Stones involved in the WC to the bitter end, he may well be safe for the first 4 weeks. Alternatives are a double up on Chelsea or Liverpool (Van Dijk). Valencia was in the running but his fitness doubts mean I have cooled on him. Smalling is a possibility although for some reason I just can’t excited about him.

D4: Van Aanholt/Coleman. Neither from a top 6 team but both have good initial fixtures and consistent attacking returns, although I think Aanholt currently edges it at both ends of the field.

D5/S1: Bednarek/Wan-Bissaka. WB seems the more likely starter but Bednarek has decent attacking threat. Both have good fixtures. If Bednarek can nail his place in the team, I’ll stick with him.

M1: Salah. Mo or no-Mo is a decision which affects one’s entire team shape. For £13m, I'm looking for someone I can captain most/every weeks and who can realistically score 7.5ppg (actually I'd prefer 8 ppg), Salah was nearer 8.5ppg last season. Can he repeat that level of scoring? None of us know but it is easier to downgrade him to someone else if he looks like he won't hit those targets than it is to upgrade to him. Given Liverpool's opening fixtures, I'm happy to take the risk.

M2: Mahrez. My benchmark for £9m is just above 6ppg. Whilst I doubt Mahrez will score that over a whole season, I’m hoping for a good start (I still remember fondly his brace in GW1 in 2015/16 when he was a differential for me). Looking at the other £8-10m midfielders available for the first few weeks, I think he probably has the highest ceiling. In due course this spot may become Pogba’s for one million less.

M3: Ramsey at 7.5m was one of the first names on my teamsheet. If he can stay injury-free he is, in my opinion, at least £1m under-priced and could easily be a season-keeper. Of course, we don't know how Arsenal will perform with a new manager and lots of new players, but I am happy to take the risk in this case. The only other player I have considered in this position is Keita, but he comes with uncertainties of his own. Despite blah's championing of him, I will probably give him a miss initially but I will be watching closely.

M4/S2: Cairney/Ralls. Both on penalties, toss a coin.

M5/S3: Stephens. I lost 0.5m in value from being greedy and ending up with non-playing S3s last year, so I have gone with the security of Stephens - 2ppg pretty much nailed.

F1: Aguero/ Aubameyang. If it wasn’t for uncertainty over minutes, I’d go with Aguero every time even though I really like Aubameyang. So if looks like Kun starts GW1 he is in my team. I haven’t totally ruled out having both of them although that blows my 2 premium players out of the water so I probably need to be disciplined here.

F2: Arnautovic Looking like he will retain his role as the fulcrum of West Ham’s attack. Following his shift in role last season, he averaged over 6ppg for the second half of the season. A mixed bunch of fixtures early on and a team with a new manager and lots of new personal tells me to ‘be careful.’ But on balance worth the risk.

F3: Gray. I’m allowed the odd punt and the options at 6.0m and below are not great. Two great home fixtures to start with and a trip to previous club Burnley. Benchmark at this price-point is just above 4 ppg which seems achievable. Not sure about Watford though as I think they will struggle this year. If Danny Ings moves to another premiership club it may be bye-bye-Andre.

[SirMattBugsby]

Nice to hear from you again AR!

I'm personally not sure about Chelsea CSs under Sarri. In fact, barring Man United, I don't find the top teams appealing in defence.

The Manchester teams are good but their backline needs to be seen first. Chelsea will play more expansive under a new manager. Liverpool seem the best bet and I've got Robertson. Arsenal? Emery teams usually defend well but it might take time to get out of Wenger habits.

So despite trying to invest more in defence this time, I've again ended up with a cheap one. Am I missing something? Maybe we should use the premium GK in Man United's case?

Sent from my Lenovo K33a42 using Tapatalk

[Aldershot Rejects]

Nice to hear from you again AR!

I'm personally not sure about Chelsea CSs under Sarri. In fact, barring Man United, I don't find the top teams appealing in defence.

The Manchester teams are good but their backline needs to be seen first. Chelsea will play more expansive under a new manager. Liverpool seem the best bet and I've got Robertson. Arsenal? Emery teams usually defend well but it might take time to get out of Wenger habits.

So despite trying to invest more in defence this time, I've again ended up with a cheap one. Am I missing something? Maybe we should use the premium GK in Man United's case?

Sent from my Lenovo K33a42 using Tapatalk

Thanks. I agree that Liverpool seem the best bet at the moment which tempts me to double up. Plus, as you say we need to see the Manchester backlines. I'll probably wait until the Community Shield and see what that throws up.

I'm happy to give Chelsea a go given their first few fixtures. Just watching the Inter Milan match and if Moses can nail down a place in midfield, he becomes another option.

[No Way Jose]

Very similar to my current draft apart from I’m 442 with a likely bench fodder 3rd forward instead of Stephens and for now I have Martial to start instead of Ramsey

From what I’ve read cairney took some penalties but penalties were spread last season. Ralls seems the better bet

Also Stephens does now have some competition for midfield if I’m not mistaken but to start at least should be good for his 2-3 for bench

[Aldershot Rejects]

From what I’ve read cairney took some penalties but penalties were spread last season. Ralls seems the better bet

My worry with Ralls was whether the new guy, Reid, would be on pens, he certainly took some for Bristol City last season.

[No Way Jose]

From what I’ve read cairney took some penalties but penalties were spread last season. Ralls seems the better bet

My worry with Ralls was whether the new guy, Reid, would be on pens, he certainly took some for Bristol City last season.

So both or neither could be on pens!

[baganboy]

Thanks a lot for your help, AR, your observation on my thread literally opened my eyes - there was a lot of chaff that goes through if I consider defenders to the same standards as forwards and mids. Your Sakho and Moses observations opened my eyes.
I think that the best place to put the numbers I have got - to ensure some continuity, is here. I hope you are alright with this.
I plotted the defenders who have been selected by > 5% or the teams plus a few choice others (notably Sakho and Moses - thanks again). This is what it comes to...

The players and their PPM in all the matches in which they played 60 min+.

Players.jpg

[baganboy]

The graph and the associated gradients would be

graph.jpg

Point Brackets.jpg

[Aldershot Rejects]

Thanks a lot for your help, AR, your observation on my thread literally opened my eyes - there was a lot of chaff that goes through if I consider defenders to the same standards as forwards and mids. Your Sakho and Moses observations opened my eyes.
I think that the best place to put the numbers I have got - to ensure some continuity, is here. I hope you are alright with this.
I plotted the defenders who have been selected by > 5% or the teams plus a few choice others (notably Sakho and Moses - thanks again). This is what it comes to...

I'm glad it was helpful and of course you can post the figures here, they are very interesting. Will have a proper look in due course.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Not looked at my side that much this week as been trying to sort my Sky team (which is another story). But, not a lot has changed.

G1 G2
Azpilicueta, Robertson, Otamendi, Van Aanholt, Wan-Bissaka.
Salah (C), Mahrez, M3, Ralls, Stephens.
Aguero, Arnautovic, F3

With £22m to spend on G1 G2 M3 & F3

M3 was Ramsey (7.5m). Keita is the obvious replacement but for some reason as the season approaches I am cooling on him.
An alternative approach would be to downgrade M3. So for instance I could go from Gray to Zaha (F3). This would leave me with 6.5m for M3. The problem is that I can't find much at that price point that interests me. Or rather, it feels impossible at this stage to separate the wheat from the chaff, so picking one player feels like looking for a needle in a haystack. I'm sure decent options will emerge between 5.5m & 7.5m, I just have no idea who they are at the moment. Basically it is just a punt.

Another option would be to downgrade Gray to Kamara say, and look to upgrade my midfield.

Or I could go completely off-piste and downgrade M3 to Cairney say - upgrade F3 to Zaha and then either upgrade D5 or my keeper (currently 4.5, 4.0)? 5-2-3 has a certain attraction at the moment, although I can hear in the back of my mind the voices that speak of a lack of flexibility here and a difficulty to get on any bandwagons.

A lot to think about in a few days. Really could have done without the Ramsey injury as he was in many ways the vital cog in my structure.

[Aldershot Rejects]

The graph and the associated gradients would be

graph.jpg


Point Brackets.jpg

Thanks, very interesting. Makes me thing my targets are not too unrealistic - 4.8ppg (6.5m), 4.6ppg (6.0m), 4.3 ppg (5.5m), 4.0 ppg (5.0m)

[jacksosi]

I did have Richarlison in at 6.5, but I’m now back to Milivojevic who I had in my first draft. Did well last season and gets all the pens that his teammates create. Solid points.

On the more risky side, I have also taken OOP 6.5 Jota based on FISO info.

So there’s 3, would go Mili if picking one.

[Aldershot Rejects]

I did have Richarlison in at 6.5, but I’m now back to Milivojevic who I had in my first draft. Did well last season and gets all the pens that his teammates create. Solid points.

On the more risky side, I have also taken OOP 6.5 Jota based on FISO info.

So there’s 3, would go Mili if picking one.

I like Mili, but I would need to dump one of my other Palace players. For me the jury is out on both Jota and Richarlison

[blahblah]

I did have Richarlison in at 6.5, but I’m now back to Milivojevic who I had in my first draft. Did well last season and gets all the pens that his teammates create. Solid points.

On the more risky side, I have also taken OOP 6.5 Jota based on FISO info.

So there’s 3, would go Mili if picking one.

I like Mili, but I would need to dump one of my other Palace players. For me the jury is out on both Jota and Richarlison

No, no and thrice NO. (My new FISO catchprase ) Infamy, infamy, they've all got it of for me...

Milipenlotsov can't get that many again, and the Ref's will have been on the Zaha Diving Observation course. It's likely that one or two of Ross\Fab\Pedro will be starters for the same as Milo, so no point rearranging your Squad for him.