ARs Thinking Space

[blahblah]

They need points, and have a DGW at home. I'm not sure that I trust their defence, so they need to score.....

Permission to.....

NO!!!!!!!!!!

I didn't know there was a Friday match

[Smurphy Paw]

So if I'd stuck with last week's team, I'd have 61 from 8 (without any captaincy scores). With wildcard, I have 22 from 7 (although two of those will play again).

Ho hum

Ditto, give or take a point or two. That sense of underachievement I mentioned!

[Aldershot Rejects]

So if I'd stuck with last week's team, I'd have 61 from 8 (without any captaincy scores). With wildcard, I have 22 from 7 (although two of those will play again).

Ho hum

Ditto, give or take a point or two. That sense of underachievement I mentioned!

Looks like 77 from last week's team with no captain added or transfer made.

On reflection I wonder whether I pulled the trigger on the wildcard too early in the week. In many ways once Kane was injured and given Spurs unexpected lead in the CL it might have made sense to wait and WC next week. Yes it would have meant no chip in the DGW but that is not necessarily a bad thing. The other thing that has struck me in retrospect is that having taken Pogba out early in the week as I built my initial pre-Kane injury team, I never really considered him for my final team going with Martial instead (although I actually had sufficient cash to go with Pogba).

There is still time for Duffy & Dunk to rescue my week, and I am hoping (vainly I fear) for an unexpected short-term Deeney illness/rest so that I can get Boly's 9 points off my bench.

The irony is if I hadn't wildcarded I would now be looking at that spot in the top 10k and one of my money leagues that looked out of reach would be back in reach. Still, it is easy to be wise in retrospect.

[Smurphy Paw]

I would have had 81 plus captain points doubled. Therein lies madness though, the expected outcome for those players was much lower than the ones I brought in.
Couple of last minute switches backfired - Pogba & TAA out, Siggy & Dunk in for example. Even those were defendable.

And there’s still the chance of a Brighton clean sheet...!

[Aldershot Rejects]

And there’s still the chance of a Brighton clean sheet...!

There's also the chance of a 1 or 2 pointer. It's difficult to judge the success of this week until after Tuesday. Still regret playing my WC though

[Mr Clarinet]

It's difficult to judge the success of this week until after Tuesday.

Actually, I think 'after Tuesday' is still too soon. My WC team was similar to yours (although I did have Raheem), and I picked it with a view to winning my mini-league via WC (34) BB (35) TC (36). And then end of the season is in sight, and hopefully I'm out of sight. I think I'm still on course - GW34 was (is) so unusual that no-one (at least no-one in the mini-league) even slightly blew me out of the water even though the performance of most of my picks was less than scintillating. And that's taking into account the teams that had some of Anderson, Fraser, Brooks, Wilson et al simply because they had no WC to use to evict them. Anyway it's not clear to me how my notional DGW35 team with a currently active WC would be a lot different to one I will end up with having used it in GW34. I'm content.

Still regret playing my WC though

Here you go...

Loomes & Sugden. Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Economic Journal, 92: 805–824, 1982.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Deeney Red. Kill me now.

[pokeface]

This is turning into a cluster eff. Feeling I have to wait til after the CL game on Wednesday before I know what move to make.

[Aldershot Rejects]

This is turning into a cluster eff. Feeling I have to wait til after the CL game on Wednesday before I know what move to make.

I'll probably wait until after Thursdays EL games.

BB is looking increasingly unlikely this week with Deeney gone, Valery possibly gone and double Brighton defence.

[First Sub Podcast]

Deeney replacement? I’m thinking Wilson even with a single game.

Not convinced by Gray.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Deeney replacement? I’m thinking Wilson even with a single game.

Not convinced by Gray.

The annoying thing is that I had Wilson in my early drafts, put in Deeney to free up some cash after I was tinkering post the Kane injury and then left him there despite ultimately having the money to go back to Wilson.

At the moment I haven't got a clue what to do. I quite like Rashford for GW37-38 but not for GW35-36, but I'm not sure I want to put anyone else in for 2 weeks.

[Aldershot Rejects]

GW34 Review: 39 points

I guess we all have those weeks during the season when you think, that's it I've had enough, this game has finally broken me. That's pretty much where I am at - a GW rank of nearly 5m on a WC and a 33% fall in ranking. To top it all, my highest scoring player is on my bench. It is the week my hope of a top 10k finish finally died. It is sobering looking back at my various drafts and realising that the one I finally settled on has the lowest score! It is even worse when you know that the pre-WC team would have scored 77 pts plus the captain (which would have propelled me into the top 10k).

Of course retrospect is a wonderful thing, but truth be told I made some poor decisions and had some bad lack - it is good to remember at times like this that there are good decisions which result in bad outcomes and vice-versa. In practice, I made some decisions (eg Deeney) which we decent decisions but with a bad outcome, but there were other decisions which were not so good.

In terms of the Dunk (c), I would probably make the same decision again especially over Son. Of course it was a punt and if I had been defending a position rather than attacking, I would probably have played it safe. However, there were good reasons why it was worth the punt. But it didn't play-off and that decision in itself didn't really cost me. In retrospect, I should probably have gone with a Cardiff player as well - Etheridge, Morrison and Camerasa all featured in various drafts and who had much lower ownership. Well done Blah who doubled-up on Cardiff and was well rewarded.

The decision why I didn't go for Cardiff players was ultimately down to chip use. The initial plan was to TC Kane in GW35 and BB in GW36 and a Cardiff player made sense in that scenario in that they could be benched in GW35 and they have a good fixture in GW36. However, I never really came up with a proper plan once Kane had got injured and to be honest, I am still not entirely convinced what to do with my chips - If Valery looks likely to play I will probably go with BB anyway (mainly because I like both my GKs prospects) and remove Deeney and probably Dunk for a hit. Of course the decision is easier if Deeney's red card gets rescinded but that would be a major surprise.

Looking back, I should have delayed implementing by wildcard until after the European matches were over and then taking stock. As I suggested in my GW34 preview post, I was never entirely convinced by my team once Kane got injured and never really came up with a proper plan for the rest of the season. Moreover there was no real reason to commit to the wildcard so early apart from the desire to gain a little bit of extra cash (or rather save money on purchases). The other thing that has struck me since concerns differentials. I mentioned above the 30 pt gap between myself and the top 10k, in reality wildcarding at the same time as everyone else meant punting on a couple of players to try and make up the gap (e.g. Martial and the Brighton pair), whereas simply delaying the WC by a week would have given me a significantly different team in GW34 to most of my rivals. Of course that could have gone either way but much of my team had decent fixtures so it should have merited more consideration. It would have meant not playing a chip in GW35 but conversely I would have had much more information going into that week and I keep harping on about not letting the tale (i.e. chips) wag the dog (the rest of the team). Sadly, I didn't take my own advise to heart.

The fact that I ended up going into the GW without either Pogba or Wilson (or both) was another case of muddled thinking but that may (or may not) be for another post.

So now I need to make sure I finish the season well and hope that I can get into the top 15k

[blahblah]

Remind me to dig out a very old thread that you may find interesting about hindsight being irrelevant in deciding whether decisions were good or not.

For example missing the deadline, having Eden as Capt and losing a FT is not wise etc even if it gets 74 in a low scoring GW. However, using Hits and WC's for more than 1 GW is wise etc, so maybe one wise cancelled out my 1 stupid?

The Brighton defence all-in FISO Bandwagon stank of Boselli to me and took some getting out of with do few transfers left in the season.

WC timing: as above it should be for more than one GW. Does playing it so late leave enough GW's for it to work? I think this is the first season where I haven't scored less with my WC sides than the previous ones; and I doubt that I am unique, well in this dept

Copper Bottoms

[pokeface]

Meh, take a step back. Your team look pretty well setup for the final run in to me. Many of us have to deal with getting Salah in for GW36 where as you have him, so can use that to deal with the Brighton situation. My 2 cents anyway.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Meh, take a step back. Your team look pretty well setup for the final run in to me. Many of us have to deal with getting Salah in for GW36 where as you have him, so can use that to deal with the Brighton situation. My 2 cents anyway.

Thanks. I can tend to be overly self-critical
Having said that, I am still frustrated with myself over some of the choices I made.

[blahblah]

Meh, take a step back. Your team look pretty well setup for the final run in to me. Many of us have to deal with getting Salah in for GW36 where as you have him, so can use that to deal with the Brighton situation. My 2 cents anyway.

Thanks. I can tend to be overly self-critical
Having said that, I am still frustrated with myself over some of the choices I made.

So go and look at the choices that reality justified....

[Aldershot Rejects]

Remind me to dig out a very old thread that you may find interesting about hindsight being irrelevant in deciding whether decisions were good or not.

Yes, I agree completely and as I suggest above good decisions don't necessarily lead to good outcomes.

Nevertheless what hindsight can do is highlight some of the mistakes in strategy. So, for instance, I had previously decided that I wasn't keen on GW35 for BB and that 36/37 were better and yet I lost sight of that in the light of the Kane injury (on which I am blaming everything) and am now remembering why I didn't originally like it.

I am also frustrated that I didn't use at least one of my chips earlier (e.g. TC on the first City double), consequently, I've backed myself into a corner where I have 4 GWs to use 2 chips.

This is not about individual players but about underlying strategy and lessons for next season.

[blahblah]

Strategy is totally different ie Ruth's Copper Bottom reminding me of FF 101.....

[pokeface]

I started an ‘Abandon BB’ thread on the opening page. But my thoughts are currently... In theory I like the idea of using TC this week. But 1-2 transfers and I have an okay BB team.

My main issue being, this is still the best week to use the BB chip no? I think 36 with Liverpool at Huddersfield and Salah hitting form is potentially looking a better TC punt.

[blahblah]

Chips aren't worth fking your squad over for, imho. Any gain is likely to be )pretty much) negated by losses in other GW's or indeed the same one.

Individual GW's are in the grasp of the fickle finger of fate, but x GW's are not...

[pokeface]

AR in your opinion would Ryan - Foster for a -4 be worth it this week? Or not worth the risk? Currently have Ryan/Gunn and feeling it’s a weak pairing.

Edit: I’m using BB this week.

[Oxford NZ]

^ I know it was a question to AR but here is my opinion anyway - Last week I was happy with Ryan ( this week not so) but he has a double and why not play him. A hit to take him out would not get a pay back imo. Foster has fixtures but little potential points ( again just imo)

[pokeface]

Well, since posting that, I have just looked at the Southampton presser, and McCarthy is apparently fit and BBC says he is ‘expected to feature’. So thinking Gunn - Foster would be the move if any.

[Oxford NZ]

Well, since posting that, I have just looked at the Southampton presser, and McCarthy is apparently fit and BBC says he is ‘expected to feature’. So thinking Gunn - Foster would be the move if any.

When you have playable keeper why take a hit?

[pokeface]

Well, since posting that, I have just looked at the Southampton presser, and McCarthy is apparently fit and BBC says he is ‘expected to feature’. So thinking Gunn - Foster would be the move if any.

When you have playable keeper why take a hit?

BBing.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Well, since posting that, I have just looked at the Southampton presser, and McCarthy is apparently fit and BBC says he is ‘expected to feature’. So thinking Gunn - Foster would be the move if any.

If you are making the transfer for a hit, you probably need at least one cs to make it worthwhile (unless Gunn is not going to play at all at which point the two sets of appearance points covers the transfer).

I would probably be tempted to make the transfer although it is marginal. Having said that you also have to think about the rest of the season and Foster is definitely a better bet than Ryan from GW36. Gunn, if he plays, though is better than Foster moving forward.

[pokeface]

Cheers, I’ll coin flip tonight I think. My main competition has Lloris/Foster. But I am 50 points clear of him, so I probably don’t have to worry too much.

I think McCarthy is a case of he ‘could’ be available. So I imagine Gunn will play at least one of the doubles if not both. I just feel that Foster has a cleansheet and bps in him for the double. I always preferred him, but with Deeney I couldn’t afford him.

Oh btw I’m somehow within one point of you now

[Aldershot Rejects]

Oh btw I’m somehow within one point of you now

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/ent ... 13/history

I'd better get my skates on then.

Looks like you are on for your best finish ever. Do you have a target?

[Edit: Have you wondered about TC this week and BB next? I haven't totally discounted it for my team but I'll probably stick mainly because of my Lloris/Foster combination]

[pokeface]

Not really. I just want to win my work league for the bragging rights, there is 72 of us in it, and I managed to pull out a 40 point lead over these last 3 weeks. If I can beat my best ever of 29k I’ll be happy enough.

Re: BB and TC. I started another thread about it. But I went full circle. Initially thinking I have to use TC. But without question for me this is the absolute best week to use BB and I think it would be a waste not to use it. And then I’ll TC in either 36 or 38 I think depending on how this week goes. Just wish I’d used my TC in 25.

[Aldershot Rejects]

GW35 Review - Grim