ARs Thinking Space

Post by **Joccki_10** » 27 Apr 2018, 22:41

According to Dinnery Valencia has shaken off a minor knock.

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 27 Apr 2018, 22:52

I think you can take a risk on Otamendi and Valencia, take the Baines hit and play the poisoned chalice, sorry, the bench boost. That's the huge problem with the damned thing; you have no slack. Having a few worries with that squad wouldn't be an issue if you weren't fielding 15.

I'm with blah on the hits thing. I used my GW34BB that way - to justify some hits that hopefully put my squad in better shape for the run-in. But even that was stressed to the max because of a run of injuries just when I didn't want them - i.e. in the approach to BB week.

Enjoy the game tomorrow. You are going to have a fine FPL season anyway.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 28 Apr 2018, 10:11

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑27 Apr 2018, 22:52
Enjoy the game tomorrow. You are going to have a fine FPL season anyway.

Thanks will do. Just trying to finish the season well, something which I struggle with (I generally lose rank over the last couple or three weeks).

Latest thought is Baines to Davies. I know Vert is the popular choice but given his attacking threat and this season's stats, I reckon Davies will outscore him over the remainder of the season, even if he misses one game and there is a much higher upside. Worth a gamble?

Post by **blahblah** » 28 Apr 2018, 10:25

Even if he misses 1 match he gets the same as Baines?

On my Xfers now

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 28 Apr 2018, 10:35

blahblah wrote: ↑28 Apr 2018, 10:25 Even if he misses 1 match he gets the same as Baines?

On my Xfers now

I would expect so. Transfer done

Just off to Sutton

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 28 Apr 2018, 10:50

Aldershot Rejects wrote:Latest thought is Baines to Davies. I know Vert is the popular choice but given his attacking threat and this season's stats, I reckon Davies will outscore him over the remainder of the season, even if he misses one game and there is a much higher upside. Worth a gamble?

I recommended him to someone else that only had 5.9m available but I'd take Vertonghen if you can afford him. Spurs have real CS prospects and it would be a shame to miss one. Davies may play them all but probably not. But with Davies' attacking threat the difference shouldn't be huge either way. GL.

Post by **blahblah** » 28 Apr 2018, 11:19

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑28 Apr 2018, 10:50
Aldershot Rejects wrote:Latest thought is Baines to Davies. I know Vert is the popular choice but given his attacking threat and this season's stats, I reckon Davies will outscore him over the remainder of the season, even if he misses one game and there is a much higher upside. Worth a gamble?

I recommended him to someone else that only had 5.9m available but I'd take Vertonghen if you can afford him. Spurs have real CS prospects and it would be a shame to miss one. Davies may play them all but probably not. But with Davies' attacking threat the difference shouldn't be huge either way. GL.

On your head be my Vertonghen

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 29 Apr 2018, 12:55

Sorry about the Baines thing - I thought he was unfit.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 29 Apr 2018, 13:44

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑29 Apr 2018, 12:55 Sorry about the Baines thing - I thought he was unfit.

No problem, he was doubtful with a cut on his head. I'd planned to take him out next week so it seemed wise to bring it forward a week. If it hadn't been BB, I would have probably taken the risk

Just need Davies to match him now!
The good thing is that Otamendi plays (as do Sterling and Jesus). Now just Valencia to wait on.

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 29 Apr 2018, 13:53

Ah, just saw it wasn't a hit so no harm done. It looks pretty tasty so far for you anyway.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 29 Apr 2018, 14:30

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑29 Apr 2018, 13:53 Ah, just saw it wasn't a hit so no harm done. It looks pretty tasty so far for you anyway.

It's been a decent start to the week. Hoping it continues. Not had a really big week for ages, so hoping this is the one.
Made big progress is a couple of mini-leagues including one cash one.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 01 May 2018, 18:55

GW36 Review

Wow! What happened there?

In terms of GW rank (1,381) that is probably my best week in about 9 years of playing this game and my overall rank went from 2788 to 592. A top 1k finish is definitely back on

And all this despite selling Baines who went on to get 12 points. Beating the top 10k average by 40 pts transformed a number of my mini-leagues. I kind of feel sorry for one of my mates who saw a 27 pt lead become a 26 pt deficit. I'd be pretty miffed.

I guess there are a number of lessons for me to remember. The first is not to become overly preoccupied with the dgws as the week before and after can be just as productive. I guess this also proves that a sgw BB can work. It is difficult to know exactly how many points it gained me, mainly because I have no idea who I would have benched if I had been playing a normal week (when I would probably have kept Baines), but also because I would have picked a different squad when I wildcarded in GW35 if I hadn't been bench boosting (and so would probably have had Ramsey last week). My guess is 20-30 (my nominal bench has 27).

At this time of year, different strategies will produce different good weeks and bad weeks in the final 5 weeks of the season. It is interesting looking at the FISO divisionals https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1971789333 how Joccki and I who both followed the same strategy have overtaken and caught up with folks who easily outscored us in GW36. It was pretty disheartening to see the size of some of the gaps at the time.

Finally, thanks to all those who encouraged me to stick with my strategy and patiently put up with my last-minute wobbles.

Now to nail TC and DGW37

Post by **19Yorke** » 01 May 2018, 19:02

Congrats, mate. Well done! Gave me some serious beating in the STC league as well

Hope you finish the season strong and secure a top1k position.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 01 May 2018, 19:07

19Yorke wrote: ↑01 May 2018, 19:02 Congrats, mate. Well done! Gave me some serious beating in the STC league as well

Hope you finish the season strong and secure a top1k position.

Cheers. Need to decide now whether to play safe or go for it a bit more.

Post by **Smurphy Paw** » 01 May 2018, 20:28

What a superb outcome. Very well done. There are a few of you who successfully played the card this week and enjoyed huge rank boosts - here’s hoping for a repeat next week!

Post by **Joccki_10** » 01 May 2018, 23:02

Our GW35 wildcard has certainly given us the boost we were looking for. Would be nice to see you making it into the top 250.

Sterling or Kane?

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 01 May 2018, 23:05

Joccki_10 wrote: ↑01 May 2018, 23:02 Our GW35 wildcard has certainly given us the boost we were looking for. Would be nice to see you making it into the top 250.

Sterling or Kane?

It really did. No idea on Sterling or Kane, will try and post on it later in the week in an attempt to sort my thoughts out.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 01 May 2018, 23:06

Joccki_10 wrote: ↑01 May 2018, 23:02 Would be nice to see you making it into the top 250.

Thanks. Top 50k for you?

Post by **Joccki_10** » 02 May 2018, 08:48

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote: ↑01 May 2018, 23:02 Would be nice to see you making it into the top 250.

Thanks. Top 50k for you?

Ideally, yes. Though I guess I’d need another week like the one I just had. Aiming for the top 50k actually reflects my season.

Post by **Pulpy** » 02 May 2018, 12:01

Great GW and overall ranks AR. Very well deserved with the effort you put in and nice to see some alternative strategies pay off. Going big at the back earlier in the season was brave but really turned things round for you and gives the rest of us food for thought.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 04 May 2018, 09:39

Pulpy wrote: ↑02 May 2018, 12:01 Great GW and overall ranks AR. Very well deserved with the effort you put in and nice to see some alternative strategies pay off. Going big at the back earlier in the season was brave but really turned things round for you and gives the rest of us food for thought.

Thank you, yes going big at the back has really worked for me. At some point, I'll try and reflect on why I think this is a good strategy, maybe pre-season as I'm pretty sure I'll go that way again.

Post by **blahblah** » 04 May 2018, 09:48

Just to keep you grounded and get your head through doors

blahblah wrote: ↑27 Apr 2018, 21:46
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑27 Apr 2018, 21:23 May as well pick the names out of a hat!
Exactly why BB this GW still makes sense.

Hits in BB GW's are cheaper assuming they start and get 2 points, so I would use it to get a better DGW XI

Also BB's are usually quite poor, with your top Bench score is 17, with most under 6, and I'd guess it averages at under 9.

Lloris Karius - toss a coin between these, and you could well have at least 6 on the Bench?

Otamendi Valencia Baines 3 Doubts and Lowton Tomkins I'd guess at least 8 points between these 2

Salah Sterling Zaha Milivojevic Kenedy - Good luck picking the lowest scorer here

Jesus Kane Barnes - Barnes is the obvious bench bod, but BHA at Home.....

I'd dump 2 of the 3 Doubts for a Spuds defender and Mawson. Tough call who to sell, but Ota, Val, Baines would be my selling order, as Sot (H) could well beat the DGW'ers even with 2 matches.

Any plans for this GW?

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 04 May 2018, 10:03

GW 37 Preview

Been a really busy week and not had an awful lot of time for FPL things which is a pain as my team now needs some work on it and I haven't had time to put the thinking work in.

Here's where I am at.

Lloris Karius
Otamendi Valencia Davies Lowton Tomkins
Salah Sterling Kenedy Zaha Milivojevic
Jesus Kane Barnes

0.8m in the bank.

Currently, I have 8 dgw players and two sgw players I wouldn't mind playing - Salah and Zaha. Having said that I am concerned about Otamendi's game time (anyone got any news on Kompany?).

The two players that are probably top of my wish list are Pogba (who is scoring consistently) and Arnoutovic (who I believe has one more haul left in him). I could get them both in by losing Salah and Mili, but then I have no hit-free way back into Salah for next week and I'm far from convinced that this is worth a double hit.

Other than that, Pogba is probably out of my range and in order to do Mili to Arnie, I need to find a million from somewhere (presumably Otamendi)

Another option would be Lowton to Bednarek enabling Mili to Tadic or Lowton. Do I want to double up on Southampton?

Finally, I could go the Swans route and go with either Mawson, Naughton or Ayew.

The problem with a lot of these options is that there is little consistent attacking threat from any of the cheap defenders playing this week and both Swansea, Southampton and the rest of the cheaper defences are struggling at about a 25% cs rate, although having said that both the aforementioned teams have a blank rate of about 40%.
Anything I have missed?

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 04 May 2018, 10:04

Oh, and I didn't mention TC. If Sterling plays the majority of both games, I think there is a better than evens chance that he outscores Kane. Having said that, I think this is probably a good time to play safe and go with Kane, given the likely captaincy splits. Having said that I remain tempted by Sterling.

Post by **blahblah** » 04 May 2018, 10:35

I'm not sure Kane is the Safe Option: I'm on TC Jesus, but have Sterling sitting on my left shoulder sniggering. Form and fixtures are both in Citeh';s favour, imho....

Pogba could be more interesting without Lulu - I haven;t checked the stats, but my lil eye suggests he could get more points without the ef great lump in his way.

As I just posted elsewhere this Salah out and back in idea is daft - I sense a stupid idea that gathers FISO momentum so it becomes "wisdom" etc until it doesn't work - Boselli (sp) anyone?

Go 3-4-3 with Barnes to JAyew?

Post by **Billy Bongo** » 04 May 2018, 17:18

Kompany declared fit

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 04 May 2018, 17:26

Looks like I'm moving towards Otemendi & Mili to Naughton & Arnoutovic for a -4. Gives me 3-5-2 with Lowton, Tomkins & Barnes on the bench.

I was tempted with the JAyew move but I quite fancy Barnes v Bournemouth in GW38 and I rate the Swansea cs slightly more likely than an Ayew goal.

Post by **blahblah** » 04 May 2018, 17:29

Yaya is tempting me for a second hit. He could easily top 10 points....

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 04 May 2018, 17:47

blahblah wrote: ↑04 May 2018, 17:29 Yaya is tempting me for a second hit. He could easily top 10 points....

He could, but I suspect he will have only 1 game although the rest of the team will be trying to engineer something for him.

Post by **blahblah** » 04 May 2018, 18:19

My kinda punt

FISO

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