Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

[Turd Ferguson]

Back for another season of frustration. God, this game is irresistible.

GW1.PNG

[Turd Ferguson]

I've held off on my wildcard despite a slow start because there's a few big questions for me still.

Just how good will KdB be? 200 points? Or will this be the year he explodes for 250?
Will Tammy secure his place leading the line?
How good are Pukki and Haller?
Are Liverpool more of a 17 CS team or a 20 CS team? If it's 17 CS, then they'll struggle to justify their prices.
Is Everton a 13 CS team or can they make the jump to 16? (They quietly finished the season with 14 last year.)
Can Spurs, Arsenal, or United show some consistency? Chelsea assets are cheap enough that the team doesn't need to be consistent. That's not true of the other 3.
Who's the first choice CB pairing with Laporte out? Whoever it is will certainly be in my wildcard team.

For the defensive questions, I'm waiting for a bit more data. I decided to take a look at captain options to shape my thinking about attackers. Presumably either a City or Liverpool asset will get first consideration most weeks. What about the weeks where neither of those two has a standout fixture?

With all due respect to Pukki and Barnes, I don't expect to captain them. My captain pool is top 6 teams, plus Haller and Vardy. Everton, Wolves, and Bournemouth aren't showing enough as a team to justify banding one of their players. That could change, but they're not in my plans right now.

Captain Options.PNG

12, 19, and 32 are the big weeks to swerve Liverpool and City, imo. All the other weeks you'll get at least a tolerable captaincy option out of them. There are several additional weeks where they might not be first choice, though. Between now and the new year, gameweeks 7, 9, 12, 15, 16, 19 and 22 look like the tricky ones.

16 looks tricky in general. Spurs have the best fixture, at home to Burnley, but I don't know if I trust them in that kind of game. Burnley nicked a 1-1 draw in that fixture last year.

The interesting thing is that Chelsea's fixtures rotate quite well in the first half of the season. If Tammy holds down his place up top, I might captain him 4 or 5 times in the first half of the year.

Spurs also rotate quite well. The problem is that Kane is a lot more of a budget drag in the ~75% of weeks that you're not captaining him.

Arsenal rotate quite poorly with Liv/MC in the first half of the year. Only GW15 is a week where I'd captain them. Maybe GW16. That almost certainly rules them out for me. Don't get me wrong, they'll score points. Lacazette in particular could emerge if he plays centrally every game. But I'm not in a rush to get them.

Haller at West Ham has an unfortunate pattern of fixtures, like Arsenal. GW28 looks like he could be the standout pick, but that's so far away I'm not concerned about it. And I don't see a single week where I'd captain him in the first half of the season. If my budget forces me to choose between the two, Tammy gets preference.

Martial has a few weeks in the first half where he might make for a good captain, but all of them are covered by Chelsea and Spurs. There isn't a gameweek where I'll by dying to captain a United player above everyone else. Captaning whichever of Tammy or Martial is in form might be a nice play. If Tammy loses time to Giroud, it will really push me in the direction of Kane as a third premium.

[Turd Ferguson]

To put some numbers to the Kane/Tammy conundrum. Let's say you're looking at the next 20 weeks, slightly more than half a season.

Let's say Kane is a 6 point/game player this year (228 for a full season) and Tammy is a 5 point/game player (190 for a full season). Maybe a little optimistic for Tammy. Let's drop it to 4.8/game (182 full season).

Kane's return for 20 games is 6*20 = 120. Tammy's is 4.8*20 = 96.

Let's say we captain each of them 5 times. Kane is an FPL stalwart, so he'll deliver 10 points/game in those games. In the others, he'll deliver 4.67 points: (120-50)/15.

Tammy might slip up a few times and only deliver 8 points/game when he's captained. In the others, he'll deliver 3.73 points: (96-40)/15.

Kane's total return: 5g * 10pts * 2C + 15g * 4.67 = 170
Tammy total return: 5g * 8pts * 2C + 15g * 3.73 = 135

So you're getting an extra 35 points for almost 4m of budget. Prorated for a full season that's about 66 points, divided by let's say 3.8 of budget, yielding about 17 extra points per million. Not bad, but probably a little below what you'd want. Given the concept of diminishing marginal returns, your last couple million of budget is probably gaining you less points per million though, so it's a close call for me. I'm very curious about what Tammy will do in these next two difficult fixtures.

NB: Kane's projection might seem a little high because his highest ever FPL season is only 224 points, but bear in mind that he's missed a lot of time due to injury. His points per 90 was around 6 last year and it was over 6 the couple of season before that.

[JanosKojak]

Remember also that Liverpool have confirmed blank on week 18 (whu). If I understand your color codes correctly that means that from week 18 to 24 you would consider captaining LIV only once.

[Turd Ferguson]

Yes, that's a good point. Potentially might be worth taking out Salah and redistributing funds for 6 weeks. In GW21, City are home to Everton, Chelsea at Brighton, Spurs at Southampton, and West Ham home to Bournemouth. Possibly a sneaky chance to captain Haller, but a City player at home against Everton would probably be the play.

[Turd Ferguson]

Interesting hop on, hop off opportunity.

Haller > Jimenez GW12
Jimenez > Haller GW19
Haller > Jimenez GW26.

Have to see how each one's form looks. If Haller is a 200 point player and Jimenez is a 150, forget about it. If they're both 175 point players, you might be able to turn 7.5 in budget into a 220 point player. Wolves are looking pretty dire coping with Europa League though.

6 MUN (H) Haller
7 BOU (A) Haller
8 CRY (H) Haller
9 EVE (A) Haller
10 SHU (H) Haller
11 NEW (H) Haller
12 AVL (H) Jimenez
13 BOU (A) Jimenez
14 SHU (H) Jimenez
15 WHU (H) Jimenez
16 BHA (A) Jimenez
17 TOT (H) Jimenez
18 NOR (A) Jimenez
19 CRY (A) Haller
20 LEI (H) Haller
21 BOU (H) Haller
22 SHU (A) Haller
23 EVE (H) Haller
24 LEI (A) Haller
25 BHA (H) Haller
26 LEI (H) Jimenez
27 NOR (H) Jimenez
28 TOT (A) Jimenez
29 BHA (H) Jimenez
30 WHU (A) Jimenez
31 BOU (H) Jimenez
32 AVL (A) Jimenez
33 ARS (H) Jimenez

[Turd Ferguson]

The 2020 Squad.

I’m on the cusp of making a strange move so I decided to write out my thoughts for public consumption.

Current state of the squad: 220k rank, 103.2 value, WC in GW5

Martinez/Forster
Robertson/Chilwell/Saiss/Kilman/Dallas
Salah/Son/Jamez/Grealish/Foden
Kane/DCL/Brewster

I’ve been rolling a transfer since my wildcard, so I need to use one or lose it this week. I am leaning towards Saiss > Dias, even though I will not play Dias against Liverpool in upcoming GW8. City have an awesome run from GW10-22 so this would be preemptively preparing for that and cashing in on .1 from Saiss before he drops.

[Turd Ferguson]

Broader thinking.

The general principle I follow, and that I think is borne out by the math, is that a 10m+ player needs to be captained regularly (at least 1 in 4), and a player in the 8.5-9.5 range needs a sprinkling of captaincies as well (maybe 1 in 8, but I’m not as sure of the numbers there). ~9ish players can justify their price over a nice run of fixtures but not as a long term hold.

Therefore much of the next few weeks will be working out how to get Kane and probably Son out, and KDB in. KDB and Salah will be my captains from GW9-15 (with maybe a sneaky DCL captaincy in 9). Kane comes back into consideration in GW16. He looks like he could have a monster season but I don’t want him for this run: City, Che, Ars, Cry, Liv, Lei, Wol. Son probably needs to go too. If they’re delivering consistent returns through that stretch, then Spurs will be title favorites. It may be crazy to ship out the two form players in FPL, but this is how you get ahead of the pack.

Therefore the plan is to hold them through GW8 against west brom, with Kane as captain, and then do Kane > Antonio, Son > KdB in GW9. Chilwell > TAA in GW10.

Yielding this team:

Martinez/Forster
TAA/Robertson/Dias/Kilman/Dallas
Salah/KdB/Jamez/Grealish/Foden
DCL/Antonio/Brewster

Contingent on Antonio’s health of course. There are other options at his price point.

I have two big concerns, firstly the Liverpool defence. I will watch them with interest over the next few weeks to see how they fare without Van Dijk. If they’re still a ~15 CS team, then I think their fullbacks are good value for their stretch from 10-18.

My other concern is the Jamez/DCL double up. 15m is a lot of budget in that attack. One possibly is to keep Son and forego TAA to do Jamez > KDB. Complicating this is that Richarlison, Digne, and Jamez are all out in the short term, so we can’t get a proper gauge of Evertons form or long term quality for the season. I’ll have to simply trust what we saw in the first few weeks of the season.

A third concern, more minor, is whether Dias will offer value at 5.5. 15 CS at that price isn’t enough by itself. You need some attacking returns and/or bonus magnet. Joccki brought up Cancelo in his team thread, which is an interesting option, but Mendy and Zinchenko are lurking to threaten his playing time. That decision needs to be made this week to avoid burning a transfer this week and a potential hit down the road.

A footnote on Chilwell, yet another popular pick I’d be shipping out. He’s definitely going to be in what I call the “consideration set” this season, roughly the 40-50 players who are worth a damn for FPL and who you might bring into your team depending on form and fixture. I don’t at all like Chelsea’s run from GW10-18 for clean sheets. Although maybe with the arrival of Mendy they can prove me wrong.

[hayesag]

It may be crazy to ship out the two form players in FPL, but this is how you get ahead of the pack.

Ill revisit this thread after wk15 to see if u did exactly that. If Kane is on fire and having the best season of his life by then, surely by taking him out you are going to potentially get left behind the pack so we will see what happens. It is a thinker

[hayesag]

where is your team link by the way?

[Turd Ferguson]

I’m almost certain to take out Kane. It’s all about captaincy. KdB has some plum captaincies coming up whereas Kane I wouldn’t captain him until GW16. He’ll surely score some points over that time but I’ll take those blows and trust that my super premiums outscore him.

Son is the harder one, but the fact that he has hugely outperformed his xG leans me toward taking him out.

[Turd Ferguson]

where is your team link by the way?

I’ve never posted it because I play in a cash ML and suspect that some of my opponents read this forum.

[hayesag]

where is your team link by the way?

I’ve never posted it because I play in a cash ML and suspect that some of my opponents read this forum.

you can pm it to me if you dont mind, and as i dont know any of your cash league opponents i can guarantee it will be kept a closely guarded secret

[Aldershot Rejects]

I’m almost certain to take out Kane. It’s all about captaincy. KdB has some plum captaincies coming up whereas Kane I wouldn’t captain him until GW16. He’ll surely score some points over that time but I’ll take those blows and trust that my super premiums outscore him.

Son is the harder one, but the fact that he has hugely outperformed his xG leans me toward taking him out.

I'm going through the same debate. Given my team structure it is very difficult to go from Son to KDB without taking Kane out to free up funds. Similarly it is difficult to get KDB in alongside Son and Salah simply by freeing up funds from Kane.

[Turd Ferguson]

Cancelo looks very good today. I may roll the dice with him and hope Pep gives him 8 or 9 starts out of 10.

[Joccki_10]

Cancelo looks very good today. I may roll the dice with him and hope Pep gives him 8 or 9 starts out of 10.

Created five chances in the first half.

[Turd Ferguson]

Saiss to Cancelo. Booked.

Jota’s emergence may scuttle the TAA plans, but I’m not convinced he’s usurped Firmino just yet.

[Turd Ferguson]

This week presents by far the most difficult decisions of the season. Prior to the IB, my team was in good shape and I was generally only deciding between a few potential moves. The luxury of not having fires to put out is that you can focus on the one move that matters the most, typically the captaincy over the next few weeks or bringing in a new mid priced option who has emerged. That luxury is gone. My team is full of question marks.

Martinez/Forster
Robertson/Chilwell/Cancelo/Kilman/Dallas
Salah/KdB/Ziyech/Grealish/Jamez
DCL/Watkins/Brewster

Cancelo and Kilman face rotation. The three Villans face a blank gameweek. Jamez and Ziyech aren’t justifying their cost.

Were it not for the blank gameweek, my move would likely be Jamez > Jota, and possibly Kilman > Dias (-4).

This would leave me with a 4-5-2 of players above base price, but the extra player doesn’t seem to be a bad thing with Covid floating about and the holiday fixture crunch fast approaching.

There is a possibility that Villa/Newcastle is rescheduled to midweek, thereby rescinding the blank gameweek. My guess is that Newcastle are testing everyone left and right, and if most of the team comes back negative, they should be able to reschedule. I’ll be waiting as long as possible to make my moves this week, unless Steve Bruce flat out says that half the team are positive and they won’t be able to play a game for two weeks.

[Turd Ferguson]

Thoughts on a few players.

Fernandes has been painful. I’ve written him off as too dependent on pens but his underlying stats have improved. He now can rival KdB and Salah. KdB and Salah are the better captaincy options the next two weeks (both facing Fulham), but Fernandes and Kane could supplant them as my premiums when the fixtures change.

Jamez. His underlying numbers are still good but he just blanked against two of the worst teams in the league and the fixtures are moving against Everton. Plus he’s now suffering price drops, so it’s the double whammy of a blanking differential and a loss in team value.

Ziyech. I may have been hasty bringing him in. A home game against Leeds is a chance for him to prove me wrong, but if he blanks he’ll be in the same bucket as Jamez for me.

Cancelo. His upside is worth holding for a few more weeks to see how much playing time he gets. If Walker and Mendy are first choice, Cancelo will have to go.

Dias. Seems like good value. I think City will lead the league in clean sheets and he’ll bag 2-3 set piece goals.

Bamford. Monster underlying stats, but everyone seems to disparage his finishing as championship caliber. I’m looking at a front 3 of Kane/DCL/Bamford from around GW16.

Kilman. Perfect 5th defender. Got him at 4.1 and he plays in a defence that’s at least league average. Nuno dropped him for a back four though and I want a playing bench. These are the things that make FPL so frustrating. We face a moving target/fog of war even with some of the minor decisions in our squad. It’s an easy hold if Wolves revert to a back three and an easy sell if he’s going to get dropped regularly.

[Ruth_NZ]

..it’s the double whammy of a blanking differential and a loss in team value.

Ah yes, I know this well. I'd go so far as to say that it feels like FPL home to me.

The only way to avoid it (apart from getting everything right) is to follow the money and do whatever the twitter herd are doing. Which I guess is why a lot of them do exactly that!

Ziyech. I may have been hasty bringing him in. A home game against Leeds is a chance for him to prove me wrong, but if he blanks he’ll be in the same bucket as Jamez for me.
Dias. Seems like good value. I think City will lead the league in clean sheets and he’ll bag 2-3 set piece goals.
Bamford. Monster underlying stats, but everyone seems to disparage his finishing as championship caliber. I’m looking at a front 3 of Kane/DCL/Bamford from around GW16.

Ziyech will do fine, don't be in a rush. Dias (and City) I agree about, I'm hoping 3-4 goals myself. Bamford? Well, maybe I have a blind spot but I can't easily get past what he showed at Chelsea and on loan in various places, I have never seen him as a PL striker. But it may just be that Bielsa's eccentric system plays into all of Bamford's strengths. As usual, if in doubt I watch carefully what the player looks like against Chelsea because I can calibrate exactly what he is up against. That's this weekend and I'll make my mind up on Bamford based on that, same as I did with Kane in his breakthrough season.

One thing I will say about Leeds is that we are probably seeing their best level right now. They won't be able to keep that level up all season, it takes too much physical toll (as has been evident with Bielsa's teams in the past). It may even be that things start to catch up with them in December with the crush of games that is coming and it certainly won't help them if they have a good run in the FA Cup.

[hayesag]

Ditch cancelo now. You really dont need. More of a headache than kilman. Also wk 16 to have kane dcl and bam. Why wait. Do it now

[Turd Ferguson]

Kane is an easy swerve for me until GW16. Salah/KdB are my captains for now.

As for Bamford, I care across this nice graphic on twitter.

77714379-04F0-4B99-BF8C-A6E92F8DD8AB.jpeg

It seems Bamford has his spurts but he underperforms for long stretches. Funny enough, he’s been more consistent post lockdown. Maybe the pressure of the crowd gets to him. If he had a good fixture I’d prob bring him in for Watkins this week, but away to Chelsea has blank written all over it. Not worth a hit.

[Turd Ferguson]

Ruth talked about the sunk cost fallacy in his thread. There’s a similar bias called the endowment effect. Essentially we value too highly things we already own. Say there’s an antique car and you wouldn’t pay 30k for it. But you inherit it from a long lost uncle and suddenly you like it so much you wouldn’t sell it for 30k, even though you clearly valued it less than 30k beforehand.

I think I’m falling victim to that with Cancelo. I was hoping to steal a march by bringing him in early, but Mendy returned at the completely inopportune moment. He’s a player I desperately want to do well and has the potential to do so, but that doesn’t mean he will. With Walker and Mendy rested in midweek and Cancelo playing 90, I have to admit there’s a 90+% chance Cancelo is benched ba Fulham. Plus Mendy scoring a goal last week should earn him more playing time in the coming weeks.

As a result, I’m contemplating a sideways move where I take my medicine. Cancelo > Dias, Forster > Johnstone (-4). Likely Jamez > Jota next week.

Moves like this aren’t the most fun but they’re necessary to stop the bleeding. The one thing holding me back is that Laporte and Stones might start instead of Dias. That would sting.

[Turd Ferguson]

A side note that with Jimenez out long term (best wishes to him), Podence and Neto deserve to be watched carefully the next couple of weeks. Someone needs to spearhead that Wolves attack.

[Smurphy Paw]

A side note that with Jimenez out long term (best wishes to him), Podence and Neto deserve to be watched carefully the next couple of weeks. Someone needs to spearhead that Wolves attack.

A very good point

As a Dias owner I am a bit nervous for this week. I’d say that he’s a hold but not a purchase

[Ruth_NZ]

As a result, I’m contemplating a sideways move where I take my medicine. Cancelo > Dias, Forster > Johnstone (-4). Likely Jamez > Jota next week. Moves like this aren’t the most fun but they’re necessary to stop the bleeding. The one thing holding me back is that Laporte and Stones might start instead of Dias. That would sting.

Pep came pretty close today to saying that Dias will start: "The guys who don’t make mistakes behind are going to play... Ruben [Dias], since he arrived I saw in every training session his professionality [and] his commitment and he’s not making any mistakes... Aymeric [Laporte] continues to be important for us but right now I’m playing other guys. In the future I’m pretty sure he’s going to play a lot of games."

Sounds like a pretty firm steer to me.

[hayesag]

The one thing holding me back is that Laporte and Stones might start instead of Dias. That would sting.

that would sting indeed an alternative to this would be to bring in a cheapie defender that can rotate well with your others cheapies (should be a few about now) and go for the more 'nailed' Ederson

[Turd Ferguson]

Well Bamford scored and Cancelo started, so in the short run my decisions weren’t too great. I’m pleased to have Dias though. Stones almost made a serious blunder, so Dias’s place should be secure if Laporte comes back in. Pep seems to like at least one center back to be a mainstay. Dias had a couple of set piece chances too. The goals will come.

Jamez and Ziyech blanked again. With Ziyech’s injury, I’ll be removing both for a hit this week.

Bamford and Fernandes continue to be my nemeses this season. They can wait a few more weeks. Most people will be clamoring to get in Salah this week, who I already own, so it’s a chance to get my house in order.

[From4corners]

Stones almost made a serious blunder

That backpass? That looked to be a communication mistake by Ederson.

[Turd Ferguson]

Stones almost made a serious blunder

That backpass? That looked to be a communication mistake by Ederson.

Yes, I’m sure there’s some shared responsibility - Ederson could have stayed back and let him handle it - but it was still a near disaster in which Stones was involved. He played the pass sight unseen; a quick glance would have given him Ederson’s position. When Pep decides the center backs he can absolutely trust, incidents like that will matter.