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Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

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Joshhua
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Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Joshhua »

Hi guys,
I`m new to this fantastic forum and would be vary happy to get some feedback on my team. I`m currently 2.5m, played two seasons while back 2014 and 2015 and had ranks of 11K and 3K and then did not play for two years. My kids are bigger now, so came back and saw that lot of things have changed. There are much more big hitters and prices of good players are much higher than earlier, so I`m almost last in my league which I comfortably won last two times. I think I picked the wrong FPL season to come back. Feeling like Stalone in Demoliton Man when he was unfrozen. :D Ok, that analogy was not that good.

So here is my team:

Foster(ars) Elliot(bha)
Bertrand(MUN) Jones(sou) Davies(whu) Suttner(NEW) Long
Mkhi(sou) Eriksen(whu) Antonio(TOT) Carroll(WAT) Cork(HUD)
Lukaku(sou) Kane(whu) Firmino(lei)

1FT, 0.1 ITB

Trying to understand what was happening I wanted to buy some time and made 3 hits until now to postpone WC.
This week thought to do Kane to Aguero and next week again Aguero to Kane.

Do you see any more pressing issues?

The reasoning for the transfer is that last two Spurs games away at West Ham finished with losses 0-1 and it looks like Bilic knows how to set up his team against them and Kane never (maybe that word is too harsh as he played only 2 games) scored away against them (well, apart one own goal). Bilic will probably not want to risk being torn apart by Spurs as his job looks to be at risk. On the other hand, when playing at home, Kane has scored 5 goals in 3 matches, 2 being penalties. I know past events are not going to happen again, but they can give some kind of an indication how things could evolve combined with other factors.

Also there is one nice article on thestatszone how strikers fare by months in the premier league and funnily Lukaku`s best month for scoring is September and Kane`s worst after August is September. I`m not sure if I`m allowed to put a link here, but it is easy to find on the mentioned site in the fpl section. Also Lukaku is in-form striker and seems to be not so bad playing against Southampton, with 5 goals in 7 outings against Southampton and also, funnily, one own goal. Oh yes, him not talking penalties anymore could be good thing for him/us, or let`s just say I don`t see it as a drawback.

As for Aguero, in last 3 home games against Palace, City scored whooping 14 goals, but Aguero played only once getting a brace. On the other hand, statistically when clubs change their manager, they tend to get best results in their second game after the change, but this could be really tough task for Roy now.

Generally with Lukaku, Kane and Aguero every move is a risk, even keeping is a risk, so my idea at least is to try to have them in my team when they are clear captain choices, to prevent too much damage. For front three I like (or let`s say liked from my time playing fpl) one big hitter, then second in 10mil range and last not more than 8 - 8.5, but it looks like the game has changed.

Ok, this was longer than intended, would be really happy for any feedback as I`m feeling completely lost in this new crazy fpl world! :shock:

Oh yes, I have no idea which 2 to start from Bertrand(MUN), Suttner(NEW); Carroll(WAT), Cork(HUD)...

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epik
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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by epik »

Welcome back to the fray! Your team looks solid, no pressing concerns. Just keep an eye on Davies, once Rose starts it's probably over for him.

Regarding your Kane/Lukaku analysis, there's not going to be some insightful opinion that gets it right, it's going to be pure luck. Both can go off any given week.

I think Bertrand and Suttner are likely to concede but their chances at a clean sheet are probably higher than Carroll/Cork offensive points.

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by baganboy »

Joshhua wrote: 18 Sep 2017, 22:07 ...........
and then did not play for two years. My kids are bigger now, so came back
..............
On the same boat. My boy is still quite small though.

Response to the RMT will follow.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Ruth_NZ »

With Kane, in his first season he didn't get into the PL team until October/November as far as I recall. So August/September will automatically be weaker in his record. Might be worth taking that into account.

The team looks pretty nice to me. I'd see Suttner as the weakest link (he will likely drop in price imminently, too) and might consider getting Naughton or Fernandez in for him. I will captain Kane this weekend so obviously I'd not be removing him myself.

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Joshhua
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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Joshhua »

epik wrote: 19 Sep 2017, 09:32 Regarding your Kane/Lukaku analysis, there's not going to be some insightful opinion that gets it right, it's going to be pure luck. Both can go off any given week.
Thanks epik! Yes, it was a bit harsh decision, but I will probably not do it, as decided to postpone WC for GW12.
baganboy wrote: On the same boat. My boy is still quite small though.
Thanks baganboy! It is really hard to find time for such "irrelevant" things as FPL when you have kids. I will think twice before letting my boys play FPL. :lol:
Ruth_NZ wrote: With Kane, in his first season he didn't get into the PL team until October/November as far as I recall. So August/September will automatically be weaker in his record. Might be worth taking that into account.
Yes, you are right. The data is a bit skewed because of this. Thanks for that!
Ruth_NZ wrote: The team looks pretty nice to me. I'd see Suttner as the weakest link (he will likely drop in price imminently, too) and might consider getting Naughton or Fernandez in for him. I will captain Kane this weekend so obviously I'd not be removing him myself.
The plan was to do WC in GW8 and to build team around Chelsea and Arsenal assets, dropping Jones and Lukaku, but the issue is that Spurs have Bournemouth at home that GW before their "bad" run (if we can say that for top teams) LIV mun CRY ars and from GW13 WBA lei wat STO BHA so don`t want to drop them for BOU and get them all back again after GW12.

You are also right that Suttner is the weakest link, and thinking of removing him, but would maybe roll the transfer this week and then next week decide between Leicester, Swansea and West Ham defender that could be played until GW12 WC and are not that popular and think Swansea could easily concede against Watford. Does that make any sense? :|

The biggest issue with WC GW12 is that I would have to mess up with defence as Jones will have tough fixtures and Davies probably dropped soon after IB.

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by MoSe »

Joshhua wrote: 19 Sep 2017, 17:20
Ruth_NZ wrote: With Kane, in his first season he didn't get into the PL team until October/November as far as I recall. So August/September will automatically be weaker in his record. Might be worth taking that into account.
Yes, you are right. The data is a bit skewed because of this. Thanks for that!
No, there's no need to consolidate his 3 seasons.
Even just reviewing each season on its own (and it has been done elsewhere here more tgan once), it's a fact that in the first games of his seasons his yield is lower, than when he gets to full steam.
Not bad, just lower.
For the most valid reasons, maybe just a coincidence, but a fact.

So ditch thestatszone yield-by-calendar-month, put it together with biorythms, if not astrology :o ;)
But you can say for instance that in his first 5, 6 or 9 full 90' games of a season he scores 4 PPG, while in the rest of the season up to over 7 PPG. Or if you don't have FPL scores data, check Goals and Assists e.g. from transfermarkt.
That is true in all his 3 seasons, figures maybe different but pattern the same.
Will it happen this season too?
That's a different story, there's no cause and effect, we can't say for sure.
But it shouldn't be wrong to expect that in the rest of the season he'll score more than 0.4 GpG. Way more.
Will he start now, after the break, or in mid november we can't say. But there's no reason to expect he won't.

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by blahblah »

re Kane: last season, I think, he was definitely snatching at chances before he got a load (at Bournemouth?) and then... I haven't seen enough this season to know if it is the same this time.

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Joshhua
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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Joshhua »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 19 Sep 2017, 16:22 The team looks pretty nice to me. I'd see Suttner as the weakest link (he will likely drop in price imminently, too) and might consider getting Naughton or Fernandez in for him. I will captain Kane this weekend so obviously I'd not be removing him myself.
Hm, currently thinking of bringing in Joselu for Firmino and maybe Kolasinac for Suttner for a hit, so I could try to roll one transfer next week and have two free for GW8.

Spent last couple of hours looking at stats in more detail and one name always pops up, Joselu.
He comes 3rd for Total Shots Per Game, with 4.3 pg, only behind Kane and Lukaku. I thought they must be out of the box or blocked, but he is again 3rd for shots in the box per game and 2nd in Shots On Target with 2.6 per game. Then I thought it must be something like Coutinho from couple of years back, shots with small possibility to actually score, but looking at his xG of 0.57 per game he is ranked 6th behind usual suspects and ahead of Vardy, Morata, Firmino and other forwards. Looking at xG projections, from GW6-11 Newcastle is the team with best attacking potential out of top 6.

If I want to get him, then the right moment would be now as he plays against Brighton. Any thoughts maybe on him and these moves?

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Well, between me and you, my intended transfers this week are Chicharito, Löwe :arrow: Joselu, Kolasinac. :lol: Also for a hit and also because I want 2 FTs in GW8. Maybe there's something in the water. :)

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Joshhua
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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Joshhua »

That is really funny, although the possible problem with Joselu is his history as he was pretty poor all his career, but one can maybe hope Rafa will help him fulfill his potential. :D
The other thing I dislike about this move is fear of daft feeling I might have on Saturday night looking at team with -4 without Aguero. :lol:

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Well, what do you want for 5.5m? That's a very low investment. He seems important to what Newcastle are doing and he is getting loads of chances. He's way up on the xG list as you noted yourself. He may not have been the greatest finisher whilst at Stoke but he didn't start all that many games and he did fairly well in Germany before that. Seems good to me as long as I am using the money well elsewhere.

Meanwhile, going into the next few weeks with no Arsenal would worry me more than having no Aguero. To get Aguero would be a -8 unless I downgraded Eriksen to Atsu and upgraded Chicharito to Kun. I could do that but I don't like the imbalance it would create in my squad, not at all. 3 x 11.5m+ strikers when you can only captain one every week is against every fundamental that my game is based on. It's wrong, plain and simple, because it can't deliver value. No way. I am fully confident that the £6m saved by having Joselu rather than Aguero, used elsewhere in my squad, will deliver more points. Unless Aguero hauls and continues to haul when his captainers want him to whilst Kane and Lukaku do badly. If that happens, anyone without Kun will be sunk. But I don't think Kane and Lukaku suddenly became bad strikers because Aguero scored a treble last week. :lol:

You can't protect against every outcome. You have to make the best fundamental decision you can and take what comes. I won't feel daft on Saturday if Aguero hauls (and Kane doesn't). I'll just be philosophical because I know right now that it is possible. And if the opposite happens I'll try not to be too smug, because I'll know it could have gone either way. :)

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Joshhua
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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Joshhua »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 22 Sep 2017, 01:09 You can't protect against every outcome. You have to make the best fundamental decision you can and take what comes. I won't feel daft on Saturday if Aguero hauls (and Kane doesn't). I'll just be philosophical because I know right now that it is possible. And if the opposite happens I'll try not to be too smug, because I'll know it could have gone either way. :)
You are completely right and I really like your approach to this game, both technically and philosophically. :D
Yesterday it was clear to me what you talked about the whole time, that it is very risky to captain Aguero (if Jesus is fit), as City was playing great, 2-0 up, it was almost 60 minutes on the clock and Aguero did not have any attacking returns at that point. He got an assists in the next minute and the goal later. In some future fixtures I can imagine he could of been taken off the field by Pep, before that happened.

On the other hand, it could be pretty hard to ignore them, as what caught my eye, Pep pushed them to the last minute demanding attacking play and more goals. Silva looks really interesting, although with minimal goal threat, but one can imagine City will put 4-5 goals past Stoke, although Palace was really dreadful, bare RLC who can become very handy if they manage to consolidate themselves. After that they have Burnley where they will have tougher task and away at Wba. I think I`l pass, although Silva looks like good value, baring rotation threat.

My issue now is Antonio, but currently I don`t see any mid that I would like, maybe Ramsey with their fixtures (not enough money for Ozil), but I`m afraid my plan with 2 freebies for GW8 to get 2 Chelsea players doesn`t look that well, or maybe I could just play Caroll this week. Hm, Mane looks like a great captain candidate for GW10 in that mid slot. To be honest, I would love to get Coutinho, but the fixtures are dodgy and who knows what Klopp can do when they are all fit and in contention. Damn, I can see one more hit on the horizon. :D

Just wanted to thank you for helping, not only here in this thread, but also with your blog thread and trying to figure out the shape of the season. This means great deal to me as I was not around in last two seasons and lost the step so thank you very much for giving me/us insight in your decision making and helping with sound advises!

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Yep, there is a tricky issue of coverage here. What to do about City and Liverpool?

Those are the two teams where I expect the most rotation this season, based on the managers' comments and history. Rotation pressure didn't even begin yet, really, but already we have seen some. Over the next 3 months or so it will increase quite substantially. That reduces the appeal of City/Liverpool players for FPL. But the problem is that they are arguably the most attacking teams in the PL and they score a lot of goals, especially City. If you avoid their players you have no exposure to their goals and every time City or Liverpool score 4+ you are in trouble.

Coverage is much maligned on FFS but it is a real thing and the above example is part of how it works.

What's the answer? Well, I have been thinking about this since yesterday because that's exactly what happened to me. By keeping Kane(c) and Lukaku I made Aguero fairly irrelevant; my captain scored more than him and my 2nd striker slightly less. I also left myself better set for next week with Lukaku(c) and Kane having better fixtures than Kun, I don't think anyone would argue with that. There's even a possibility that Kun gets rested @ Chelsea, who knows? So I'm happy with what I did with the key strikers. But the fact remains that City scored 5 (again) and I had no exposure; Liverpool scored 3 and I had no exposure. Other teams benefited from those goals and mine didn't. :(

Liverpool have scored 3+ in 50% of their 10 games this season; City have scored 4+ in 50% of their 8 games this season. You can't just ignore that, even if those teams carry a raised rotation risk.

My current thinking is to compromise. I don't think captaincy is safe when there is significant rotation risk so you'd need to go below £9m ideally. Once you get above £9m it becomes increasingly hard for a player to justify value without being used, at least sometimes, as a captain. But maybe the risk/reward calculation can be made differently below £9m. So, for Liverpool there is Coutinho on 8.8m; he should be decent value at that figure and is probably less likely than most to be rested. I think Mané is better value at 9.4m than Salah at 9.2m and if I thought I could use him as an occasional captain he'd be my choice, especially as Senegal didn't qualify for AFCON. So that's Liverpool and, like you, I think GW10 is soon enough. But I think it has to be done. Probably Coutinho, maybe Mané.

City are the hard one, very hard. Sané is 5th best midfielder in FPL so far yet has only played 39 minutes per game on average. Sterling is 7th best and has played 50 minutes per game on average. What can you do with numbers like that? They are insane. It goes against all previous principles to get players that get as little gametime as that, yet (as mentioned in the 'shape of the season' thread) it seems so far that City are scoring so freely that the small matter of gametime matters much less.

Silva is the obvious way in; 8.3m and way up top in the midfielder rankings so far. But Silva? He barely missed a minute so far and has even played more than KDB, can that really be expected to continue? Maybe I am just behind the times here; maybe I should have considered Silva as an option when I was replacing Mané a couple of weeks back. There is also the issue that his points are coming from assists and related BPs; assist threat generally tends to be less reliable than goal threat in the long run although there are exceptions. So I am actually thinking that Sterling at 7.8m may be the best way in; Pep is tending to use him more centrally and at that price you could more easily accept the fact that he will probably as often as not be coming off the bench.

This would kind of be to reverse the rotation argument; if rotation makes the City premiums less pickable then perhaps it makes their cheaper assets more pickable? That's kind of where my thinking is on it right now anyway. The City conundrum is hellish awkward for me. It will be easier for managers that don't think so much, perhaps, and just get the players that are doing well. :roll: :lol:

This became a long post and I will put (most of) it in my RMT as well. But I'll leave it here too because this is where it was written.

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Joshhua
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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Joshhua »

Sterling has really great stats and what is pretty good for City in comparison to Liverpool is that even if Sterling/Sane don`t start and come in off the bench, with Pep insane drive to score as many goals as possible until the very last minute of the game, even 10-15 minutes cameo could be enough for some attacking returns running at the tired legs of the defenders.

The thing is, that alternatives are not offering much more upside, Wenger is obviously struggling with his team and didn`t find his 11, so anybody could drop out, Ramsey, Sanchez, Ozil.
For Chelsea the best midfield option is Hazard, but would one get him in or captain him with Morata looking great and center of their attacking strategy?
I like your pick, but Mahrez imho can be described as risky pick, after his transfer saga and questionable motivation. He was also taken off after 60 minutes.
Let`s see how Ritchie does today, but until now his goal threat was almost non-existent with few out of the box shots and not sure I want two attacking options from Newcastle.

It looks like this can be sound strategy for this season...

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Joshhhua »

Hi guys,
I`m on wildcard and after this season is finished will go back on ice for a year or two or at least until I forget how obsessive and time-consuming this game is. :D
This is my "final" draft so feel free to comment:

Fabianski, Hennessey
VVD, Davies, Maguire, Mee, Francis
Salah, Mane, Eriksen, Sigurdsson, Milivojevic
Kane, Vardy, Deeney
0.0 ITB


The provisional plan for future transfers looks like this:
GW29: roll
GW30: no plan yet, maybe Davies :arrow: ARS def and spare hit later in GW33, but 0.1 short of Monreal, 0.3 of Bellerin
GW31: Eriksen :arrow: Stanislas (Zaha/Shaqiri) and play GK-2-5-1
GW32: Sigurdsson :arrow: Pogba (hopefully his feud with Mourinho is solved by then)
GW33: Stanislas,Davies, Maguire :arrow: Hazard, CHE/ARS def, BUR/CPL/SWA def for - 4
GW34: Francis :arrow: DGW cheap def which would mean (with BB) 9 DGW players and following SGW players:
VVD,Salah,Mane vs BOU
Hennessey,Milivojevic vs BHA
Deeney vs hud
GW35: FH or maybe play with what I`v got...

With mids and fwds I`m pretty happy, but have a feeling the Maguire+Mee+Francis combo can be done better. Mee`s price is 4.7 in my team and would like to have him to cover if Davies misses out and it also spares a transfer down the road as he has DGW and currently think that is maybe better than getting Zanka for one GW, but Maguire+Francis could be a problem as this combo doesn`t allow enough flexibility for getting an Arsenal def in GW30 and would probably mean a hit in GW33. Maguire will probably score anytime now and although Leicester conceded 5 goals against City, they had very good stats in the last games until they switched to 4 at the back in the 2nd half of the City game and they have great fixtures until end of the season, but not sure if there is a sure starter there besides Maguire?

So, any ideas there? Thanks in advance!

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Nice team Joshua!

Regarding the extra funds, I think you can squeeze them out of Deeney and Milivojevic. Niasse and Albrighton perhaps?

I know we are talking about GW 31 players here but you'll be looking beyond that with the WC.

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Looks a stonking team to me. I had to take Chilwell over Maguire but I guess that's a consequence of having to pay full price for Salah.

One change I'd consider would be Dawson or Hegazi instead of Mee. That gives you an extra GW31 player and also puts 0.1m or 0.2m in the bank for Davies :arrow: Monreal. I think WBA are worth the risk with the fixtures they have and an extra game as well.

Edit: just seen that Mee is 4.7m for you. I'd still prefer Hegazi I think but that doesn't save anything. Although Mustafi is a decent enough option for an Arsenal defender anyway. Perhaps just go with what you have, it looks very good. :)
Last edited by Ruth_NZ on 23 Feb 2018, 21:03, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Decent side Joshhhua. Personally, I'm not convinced by Sigurdsson but he may be worth a punt for 4 games; have you thought about Arnie? He doesn't have the GW31 fixture but could arguable be kept to GW34 maybe saving you a transfer down the line. Also frees up some cash.

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Re: Unfrozen after 2 years of FPL absence RMT

Post by Joshhhua »

Thanks for your comments, I really appreciate it!
SirMattBugsby wrote: Regarding the extra funds, I think you can squeeze them out of Deeney and Milivojevic. Niasse and Albrighton perhaps?
Oh, please not Niasse again. I have nightmares because of him. Benched him for his haul, then he was banned for 3 games, then dropped, then against Livepool he put the worst performance I saw this season in PL, so when I sold him, he got his place back and is scoring again. :lol:
It was Deulofeu vs Deeney for me and because I won`t have spare transfer for that slot, would like to keep that player also for BGW35 just in case FH is not played then. As there are more interesting options among mids than fwds, decided to go with Deeney.
As for Albrighton, he would be my third Leicester player and looking at there fixtures Mahrez could go on a run, so would like to keep that move open.
Ruth_NZ wrote: One change I'd consider would be Dawson or Hegazi instead of Mee. That gives you an extra GW31 player and also puts 0.1m or 0.2m in the bank for Davies :arrow: Monreal. I think WBA are worth the risk with the fixtures they have and an extra game as well.

Edit: just seen that Mee is 4.7m for you. I'd still prefer Hegazi I think but that doesn't save anything. Although Mustafi is a decent enough option for an Arsenal defender anyway. Perhaps just go with what you have, it looks very good. :)
Completely forgot about Mustafi. Thanks for that. Will think about Hegazi, although that would mean another transfer before DGW.
Aldershot Rejects wrote: Decent side Joshhhua. Personally, I'm not convinced by Sigurdsson but he may be worth a punt for 4 games; have you thought about Arnie? He doesn't have the GW31 fixture but could arguable be kept to GW34 maybe saving you a transfer down the line. Also frees up some cash.
Yup, this was the original idea as Arnautovic looked amazing last game, didn`t he? He will probably get more points over next 3 than any other BGW option, but that slot is reserved for United or Arsenal mid from GW32 so it is probably more sensible to go with an Everton mid. You are absolutely right about Sigurdsson that he is a bit of a punt, but he is on set pieces and maybe even penalties and he was looking much better in the last game and think one should have one Everton mid for the BGW. He also has that nice price tag which makes the move to Pogba or Mkhi pretty easy.

So, once again, thanks a lot for your inputs and hopefully this team will not fare too badly. :D

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