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Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

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baganboy
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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

No Way Jose wrote: 01 Feb 2018, 21:52 I think I'm coming around to the idea of not compromising the doubles too much which means I need to move towards 31ers now
I am coming to the same conclusion. Navigating the B/DGW is key for me too.
Chips are important but secondary - shall be used as required.
No Way Jose wrote: 01 Feb 2018, 21:52 Do you think I should remove mahrez for Walcott a week late or keep him?

Plan is mariappa now for probably Bauer. Any other defenders I should be thinking of instead? No everton defenders seem safe

Mahrez to Walcott would be for a hit if I hear mahrez is unlikely to play this weekend I'd say.
Yeah the Mahrez scenario is not ideal. At all. It's a wait and watch for me - tending to ignore-Mahrez. I think Mahrez is brilliant, but if he is sulking and not playing, all that brilliant is worth zero. and yes, if Mahrez is not playing GW26, I would have done the hit to TW. Especially in your structure (WC ~ GW32).

Mariappa (which is my Ogbonna) to Bauer was what I was considering while driving to office today, and by the time I parked, Tomkins came to the consideration. Sakho is back for CPL to partner him, and that changes everything AFAIAC. Super GW26, Solid GW31, and decent GW34 and GW35. Everything else is rubbish. Bauer is an excellent move too.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

Smurphy's Paw wrote: 01 Feb 2018, 23:05 How do you guys fare on that front? In my case it’s no accident and I have been filling my bench with most likely GW31 players for a couple of weeks which I guess means that I am already thinking a la BB?
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

You are not the only one. I was surreptitiously shaping up in the last couple weeks to get Lewis Cook and Wilson into my team, for Pardew to piss on my parade by bloody beating Liverpool with WBA.

Now getting in BOU players is too risky. I have got J Ayew rather than Wilson this week because Ayew will definitely have GW35, and Wilson will almost definitely not have it.***
But if course, since you have Wilson already, you would hold.

SOT vs WBA is key. (ah, that is why I was bleating on in the other thread about Pardew)
And, let me tell you about a wild thought well and early. Depending on the above game, pre-31, either of Studge or Wilson comes in for.......... yes sir, we are thinking #Kanexit here. :D :D


** but more because I am a vindictive human FPL manager, and I remember previously in the season Wilson got me 10 points in 5 GWs.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

Smurphy's Paw wrote: 01 Feb 2018, 23:05 The main difference
My approach will not necessarily be identical. I still have my TC, and for me one consequence of the BB plan would be not using the TC in a DGW. As BaganBoy has articulated very well, the number of doublers over the two GWs may well make up for that.
Anyway, whilst that needs more thought, it doesn’t need it yet. The late kick strategy should work for me, I just need to finesse.
Absolutely. If I would have had TC in hand, perhaps I would have thought differently (even with my TC indifference)
But perhaps you can even consider to hold and to use it for for something like (hypothetically) a late GW38 Salah, going after the 4th spot against an already relegated Brighton?

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by No Way Jose »

Tomkins is a decent shout. Maybe better to go sakho now he's back given his BPS and goal threat? I'm slowly reducing funds from my defence by taking out mustafi soon enough (though monreal is tempting) for a jones + alonso + a 3 for 1 rotation of burnley, cheap and cheap

Odds of palace having a game in 31 are what? 85% or something from from that spreadsheet?

Yeah waiting for news on mahrez. Won't take a hit if he's playing, even if he may be sulky. Walcott can wait a week if I watch mahrez play and think he's not committed enough to score.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

No Way Jose wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 09:35 Maybe better to go sakho now he's back given his BPS and goal threat? I'm slowly reducing funds from my defence by taking out mustafi soon enough (though monreal is tempting) for a jones + alonso + a 3 for 1 rotation of burnley, cheap and cheap

Odds of palace having a game in 31 are what? 85% or something from from that spreadsheet?
I love Sakho but his fixtures from GW28 are: TOT MUN che (hud tbc) LIV

I'm not sure the probability of a decent fixture in GW31 trumps the rest of them (depends on your team, of course)

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by No Way Jose »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 10:24
No Way Jose wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 09:35 Maybe better to go sakho now he's back given his BPS and goal threat? I'm slowly reducing funds from my defence by taking out mustafi soon enough (though monreal is tempting) for a jones + alonso + a 3 for 1 rotation of burnley, cheap and cheap

Odds of palace having a game in 31 are what? 85% or something from from that spreadsheet?
I love Sakho but his fixtures from GW28 are: TOT MUN che (hud tbc) LIV

I'm not sure the probability of a decent fixture in GW31 trumps the rest of them (depends on your team, of course)
Yeah true. The sakho suggestion was more in reference to his tomkins suggestion but at 4.3 you possibly don't mind benching him and having him just for 31 but at 4.8 or whatever sakho is now you can't play him one in five

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by Smurphy Paw »

baganboy wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 09:11
Smurphy's Paw wrote: 01 Feb 2018, 23:05 How do you guys fare on that front? In my case it’s no accident and I have been filling my bench with most likely GW31 players for a couple of weeks which I guess means that I am already thinking a la BB?
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

You are not the only one. I was surreptitiously shaping up in the last couple weeks to get Lewis Cook and Wilson into my team, for Pardew to piss on my parade by bloody beating Liverpool with WBA.

Now getting in BOU players is too risky. I have got J Ayew rather than Wilson this week because Ayew will definitely have GW35, and Wilson will almost definitely not have it.***
But if course, since you have Wilson already, you would hold.

SOT vs WBA is key. (ah, that is why I was bleating on in the other thread about Pardew)
And, let me tell you about a wild thought well and early. Depending on the above game, pre-31, either of Studge or Wilson comes in for.......... yes sir, we are thinking #Kanexit here. :D :D


** but more because I am a vindictive human FPL manager, and I remember previously in the season Wilson got me 10 points in 5 GWs.
Haha! I only brought Wilson in this week. As a Sheffield Wednesday fan I am emotionally bound to believe that the Owls have a chance* plus I do not rate Ayew enough to bring him in at the moment. Having been a fan of Carlos Carvalhal at Wednesday I am fascinated by the potential match up. Over here it’s the live Saturday lunchtime game, so teatime-ish for you. Don’t expect freeflowing end to end football, both teams have been struggling, but the context makes it compelling for me.

* As an FPLer I would happily bet against my own team. As a one-off for a fringe player, I’d rather take the 4-point Hit, and in any case I am sure Wilson will achieve at least 4 extra points over the same frame anyway.
The Sot v WBA game is obviously a close call. Time will tell

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

baganboy wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 09:11 Ayew will definitely have GW35, and Wilson will almost definitely not have it.***
Was a big mistake from me actually. I do not remember why I was making it - because surely SWA will NOT have a GW in 35, just like BOU.

Very puzzling that I made it. Don't know what fixture list I was reading. Feeling pretty stupid now.

But anyway, there will be time to rectify it.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by Smurphy Paw »

baganboy wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 11:54
baganboy wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 09:11 Ayew will definitely have GW35, and Wilson will almost definitely not have it.***
Was a big mistake from me actually. I do not remember why I was making it - because surely SWA will NOT have a GW in 35, just like BOU.

Very puzzling that I made it. Don't know what fixture list I was reading. Feeling pretty stupid now.

But anyway, there will be time to rectify it.
This need not necessarily cost you an extra transfer. Arsenal have good fixtures after GW28, and by holding Wilson/Ayew/etc at the moment we have a chance to see how their new strikeforce gels meaning that there may be a ‘spine’ player who also fits the bill for one transfer (cost differential not a problem, given the scope to make other changes in parallel)
Or had you already accounted for bringing in a couple of Gooners?

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

Excellent point. Agreed. Thanks.

Phew... :)

I kinda know the approximate number in terms of players etc, but not the specifics as to which players I want - I will let that develop organically. Thinking say about 3-4 weeks ahead in terms of specific players i.e. I know the GW28 players I want, but not beyond..

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by Redsnout »

Ayew's 'definite game' in GW35 confused me for a second :D i was comparing Ayew vs Wilson couple of days back and eventually went with Wilson. As SP put, I wouldn't worry too much about it with fixture changes later. Wilson could share mins with Defoe by then. Or Wigan can knock out City :mrgreen:
Btw, is Abraham gone out of picture at Swansea, or still recovering from injury?

Tomkins is a good transfer if you want to cover only for those two GW's. He's your D5 anway. I had considered him as Christensen replacement, but already having non-playing Kenny in my squad, i want someone who i can play in next 4-5 games, so i'm gong with Fernandez. With Wilson and Fernandez in my team, don't know what i want out of WBA vs SOT game.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

I Agree, Redsnout.

Ayew, in hindsight, could perhaps have been held for 1 week. I don't know -- I am happy with having Ayew in my team sheet right now, I would have perhaps made the move anyway (and as SP and you mentioned, It is generally not a problemsome move) - but I am just annoyed that I made the move on a weird wrong premise which weirdly set itself in my mind. And I didn't do required due diligence before making it.

Yeah Tomkins is D5 and P14 (P15 is M5). And Tomkins plays every match (hopefully).

Wilson and Fernandez - don't think too much. Invariably what you want least will happen. :) Both are decent moves.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by blahblah »

No Way Jose wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 10:26
Aldershot Rejects wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 10:24
No Way Jose wrote: 02 Feb 2018, 09:35 Maybe better to go sakho now he's back given his BPS and goal threat? I'm slowly reducing funds from my defence by taking out mustafi soon enough (though monreal is tempting) for a jones + alonso + a 3 for 1 rotation of burnley, cheap and cheap

Odds of palace having a game in 31 are what? 85% or something from from that spreadsheet?
I love Sakho but his fixtures from GW28 are: TOT MUN che (hud tbc) LIV

I'm not sure the probability of a decent fixture in GW31 trumps the rest of them (depends on your team, of course)
Yeah true. The sakho suggestion was more in reference to his tomkins suggestion but at 4.3 you possibly don't mind benching him and having him just for 31 but at 4.8 or whatever sakho is now you can't play him one in five
Palace do have a run of bad matches soon, but they fr very well with Swansea (except GW 32 {CP Liv(H), Swa Man(a)} and Bournemouth except GW 30 {CP Che(a) Bou Tot(h)}.

Is it worth getting him in now when he may not start today and has a run of bad matches? I've gone Bou and Swa, with a view to getting Sakho in for GW31 or 33 when their fixtures turn.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

Yeah agree, perhaps too early to get Sakho in. Not Tomkins though ( I did get him.in), because he is cheaper and fit 100%.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

JFYI

Transfers for GW26
Ogbonna :arrow: Tomkins
DCL :arrow: JAyew

No hit.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by blahblah »

I have that nagging voice saying that Sakho will start and score today :oops: :oops: :oops:

I am tempted to dump Monreal for him and have the cash ready for Jesse to Arnie when fit :idea: :idea: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?:

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

baganboy wrote: 03 Feb 2018, 08:32 Yeah agree, perhaps too early to get Sakho in. Not Tomkins though ( I did get him.in), because he is cheaper and fit 100%.
Presumably Kelly rather than Tomkins lose his place when Sakho is back?

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

Hmm. Risky. But a hunch is a hunch. As Google would say 'feeling lucky'?

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Feb 2018, 08:35
baganboy wrote: 03 Feb 2018, 08:32 Yeah agree, perhaps too early to get Sakho in. Not Tomkins though ( I did get him.in), because he is cheaper and fit 100%.
Presumably Kelly rather than Tomkins lose his place when Sakho is back?
Should be. Hope so. Fingers crossed. Kelly is seen more as the backup right back... But has filled in admirably in the absence of Dann and Sakho

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

The previous one was for blahblah

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

baganboy wrote: 03 Feb 2018, 08:39
Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Feb 2018, 08:35
baganboy wrote: 03 Feb 2018, 08:32 Yeah agree, perhaps too early to get Sakho in. Not Tomkins though ( I did get him.in), because he is cheaper and fit 100%.
Presumably Kelly rather than Tomkins lose his place when Sakho is back?
Should be. Hope so. Fingers crossed. Kelly is seen more as the backup right back... But has filled in admirably in the absence of Dann and Sakho
I thought that was the case; just had a vicarious panic though ;)

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by blahblah »

baganboy wrote: 03 Feb 2018, 08:37 Hmm. Risky. But a hunch is a hunch. As Google would say 'feeling lucky'?
I thin I'm pushing it with Capt Sanchez :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

Massive rank fall this gameweek. From 4-point-something-K to 7-point-something-K.

But the second milestone that I had planned is reached on time too.
100k within GW 13 (Done)
10k within GW 26 (Done)

Will talk about the team in detail.
I do believe that in all the talk about B/DGW planning and associated transfers, I am taking my eye off the ball in player transfer and immediate points. Need more focus.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

After GW26 || Sub-season 6 (GW24-28) || Deficit - 31
GW26.JPG
Which one would this be? Steady, steady, boom? or steady, steady, bust?

Today was the 'bust' week for me. 39 points. 3M. But the rank fall was not horrible. I expected worse.

My milestone for the middle third of the season has been achieved, as I mentioned previously. Quite happy for that.
And now for the final third, which can be smoothly divided into two parts. from now to GW32, where I expect horrible things to happen to me, and my GW rank plummet to 5 digits; and then from GW33-38, where I will expect to shoot up the rankings again.

So GW32 target is just maintaining by current rank (I would have been happier if it were <5k, but I only have myself to blame), and after than we shall see.

Here's a confession. I had a quit-FPL-now moment yesterday. But this target-setting is a good thing. Got me back.

_____________________________________________________________________
Goalkeeper(6/21)
Pickford for Pope. This is my Sane for Sterling of the middle season. Nightmare.
Sub-Season Status: 6/13

Defenders
6M equivalent rotating defender position (9/21) – The 1-week punt for Tomkins did not work. But a punt is a punt. It's okay. There are other uses of Tomkins.
Alonso position (8/23) – Alonso position - Chelsea implosion is a worry. Injury is a worry. Robertson came in with 1 point.
Otamendi position (10/21) – Otamendi 2 points. Time to go?
5.5M rotating defender/ forward position (5/19) – Jordan Ayew came in for a 2-pointer.
Sub-Season Status: 32/51par. yes, I can worry now.

Midfielders
7M Mid position (8/23) – Jlin's time's numbered. Oh Theo.
9M Mid position (7/29) – Son, as expected, got nothing. I will give him 2 more gameweeks.
Sterling position (18/29) – Raheem Sterling :D :D :D but at least he was there.
Salah position (25/29) – For shame, baganboy, for shame. when will I ever captain him? But somehow I believe it is a kind of a jinx - if I start to captain Salah, rest assured that he will start to flop. Kane has been okay for me.
Sub-Season Status: 58/65par. All because of Salah.

Strikers
Kane position (14/32) – meh.
Other 10m+ Striker position (25/32) – meh.
Sub-Season Status: 39/38par. Meh.

Captain - (16/35) – Meh.

Points-Bucket challenge standings
151 in the last 2 weeks. Target was 187. The deficit is serious now. 67 points net. That's quite a bit.
And here's validation of my process (it only makes sense to do it now). It I were at par, I would have been ranked 265 at this moment. Charging towards the top spot. I am not, so I am not.


Planned Transfer for next week
No clue. At all
Am considering a hit to get
Otamendi :arrow: Smalling (it seems Man U are the only team even bothered about keeping a cleanie)
Lingard :arrow: Walcott

4 (and probably 5) non-blanks for 33.
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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by Redsnout »

Since you are looking for bringing in Walcott, let me put this here. What do you think of getting in Ramsey instead? I know, they have two tough fixtures and most likely a blank in gw31. But i don't think Arsenal have difficult fixtures attacking wise. Look at the previous big matches [City (1-3), Spurs(2-0), Liv(3-3), United(1-3), Che(2-2)], most of them have been an open game. Since Arsenal's defence is shite, others fancy their chances and might be more inclined to go forward and open up. Also with the arrival of Auba and Mkhi, their attack looks great. Then they have two easy fixtures before gw31. I would fancy him to outscore Walcott in that period. If you wanna bring in Walcott later, Ramsey need to score extra 4 points in that period. Am i missing something here? It sounds knee-jerky to bring Ramsey after that hattrick, but this is mainly based on his upcoming fixtures. We have seen enough of Ramsey this season already, usually scores in big matches too.

I would love to hear some different perspectives on this. I was gonna roll my FT having a benching dilemma this week, but I'm genuinely tempted by this since getting up today. My situation is slightly different to yours though. Having Walcott already, my direct route to Lingard replacement is Shaqiri, and i fancy Ramsey to outscore him in next 4 matches if he can stay fit. Talking about fitness, Arsenal have 3 games in between Spurs and City games, and that really discourages me from going with Ramsey now. I think i talked myself out of it. :lol:

As for Smalling, we are playing Chelsea and Pool in next 4 gws, and then a blank :| I wouldn't advise going that route now. Alderweireld might be good alternative after Arsenal match.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

Ramsey is someone I will look at from GW32 onwards. This is one of the small compromises I have to do - I would not have him for 27 and 28 because he is playing deeper than he was earlier in the season (Xhaka is poor)- against the comparatively weaker teams he will get a lot of points. I agree that IMHO too, there might not be a great lot to choose between Ramsey and Walcott (and both will get a fair bit more than LIngard). But my plan would require the Walcott move earlier, anticipating the GW31.
I would recommend Ramsey at any time after GW29 - depending on the timing of one's second Wildcard. Stemania had done some analysis on this in the Fixtures / Blanks / Doubles thread in the main forum viewtopic.php?f=18&t=126250

Smalling is more of a forced move - he is the only serious defensive guy I can have who suits the price to get Walcott for Lingard. I considered Alderweireld and Davies from Spurs. And somehow, I feel that I won't mind pushing Smalling in my team against Chelsea - who are in crisis. Liverpool No, but that is the only game where I will bench him. It seems that of the Top 6, at this moment, Man United are the only / safest team for defensive returns.

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by Stemania »

baganboy wrote: 06 Feb 2018, 10:36 Here's a confession. I had a quit-FPL-now moment yesterday. But this target-setting is a good thing. Got me back.
I've had a word with the other moderators and due to the unique and interesting nature of your thread it was decided you should be placed on an anti-ban. This means you are neither permitted to stop playing FPL or to stop posting until further notice. We will not consider appeals on this ruling. :wink:

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Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

:D :D :D That's nice of you Stemania.

Yes, it was a passing phase - I shall stick on .... For the sake of playing out the late-late kick if nothing else. Excited about the experiment.

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baganboy
Comfortably Dumb(ledore)
Posts: 5874
Joined: 05 Aug 2008, 06:59
FS Record: 2011/12 - 212. 2019/20 - 222.
Altogether 6 top 10Ks. 8 top 20Ks. 9 top 50Ks.

Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

images.jpeg
It's not everyday that nearly all big guns click. A diversified portfolio is better in the long run.

Will do the GW summary, and then drop off the map for the rest of the week.
PS: it's likely to be either a transfer carry, or a 4 point hit. We shall see.
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User avatar
baganboy
Comfortably Dumb(ledore)
Posts: 5874
Joined: 05 Aug 2008, 06:59
FS Record: 2011/12 - 212. 2019/20 - 222.
Altogether 6 top 10Ks. 8 top 20Ks. 9 top 50Ks.

Re: Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

Post by baganboy »

After GW27 || Sub-season 6 (GW24-28) || Deficit - 31
GW27.JPG

Easy Tiger lesson of the GW: Don't panic.
For the sub-season, I am adrift by 23 points ONLY. 86 points next GW, and I am at par.
And par is good enough. (Par for the season stands at 76)

And Easy Tiger associated wisdom screenshot of the day is as below.

GW27 - associated wisdom.JPG
_____________________________________________________________________
Goalkeeper(9/21)
Pickford nightmare continues.
Sub-Season Status: 9/17par

Defenders
6M equivalent rotating defender position (11/21) – I think we have established by now that rotation is a thing that does not work for me. But I keep going back like a moth to the flame of money.
Alonso position (14/23) – Robertson came in with 6 point. The luck wheel is turning, but not by much. Chelsea got a CS anyway. PS: Alonso is going nowhere.
Otamendi position (10/21) – Smalling. Ah well.
5.5M rotating defender/ forward position (7/19) – What did I say about rotation?
Sub-Season Status: 43/68par. Disturbing

Midfielders
7M Mid position (9/23) – Theo comes in for a hit and gets 1 point. But this is a longer-term move, so I can live with this.
9M Mid position (7/29) – Son got nothing. Perhaps a rethink in in the cards here?
Sterling position (26/29) – Sterling gets point.
Salah position (38/29) – Salah captain too.
Sub-Season Status: 83/88par. All because of Salah. As usual.

Strikers
Kane position (20/32) – meh again. In the last 3 GWs, Firmino got 22. The Kane-> Aguero would have cost me 8 points. I would not complain about 2 points here.
Other 10m+ Striker position (25/32) – AGUEROOOOOOOOO! But his days are numbered. Maybe GW29.
Sub-Season Status: 66/52par. Better than par. And this is how it goes. My structure is built on a strong defence. I neglected it, and am paying the price this GW. Not too badly.

Captain - (29/35) – Is okay.

Points-Bucket challenge standings
230/253 par. Discerning audiences would have noticed how the deficit-from-par score from the previous GW has suddenly jumped from 31 to 49. Why? How? That is simply because we are almost confirmed that the number of DGWs for the season would be 3 and not 4. Thus the parameters in the background have changed.
I would have been at rank 339 with par for the season overall



Planned Transfer for next week
Perhaps none. perhaps two. We shall see.

BGW Planning
BGW31 - 5 (and there's a possibility of 6) non-blanks for 31. Salah, Robertson, Pickford, Walcott, Tomkins (JAyew).
BGW35 - 4 (and there's a reasonably strong possibility of 6) non-blanks for 35. Tomkins, Mee, Pickford, Walcott (Salah, Robertson)
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