Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

[baganboy]

Good points, AR. Thanks.
Robertson was one of the best players in yesterday's match. Really, he should have sealed the position for himself with that display.

[baganboy]

Okay decided.
Perhaps the decision has something to do with Morata falling in price today, not that it matters TOO much.

Morata + Vertonghen Kun + Robertson

Happy with that. Thanks NWJ, redsnout, Stemania and AR for your help.

These will be the only two transfers right up until the January transfer window finishes. The 2 transfers will be carried forward, and shall be rather useful I think.

[blahblah]

You seem to be missing a "hope" in that post

[baganboy]

I am hopeless

[Smurphy Paw]

Ogbonna's fine I think, though he does have the disadvantage of a tough game in GW28. As good a chance as Bournemouth for CSs in the upcoming games I reckon. It would be option 1 for me in your position, except that I'd probably take Vert all the way down to the 4.2-4.5m band rather than Daniels. I think that would be more efficient and I would leave a few pennies in the bank to either upgrade DCL (Wilson?) or add to the cash from a DCL downgrade to make a bigger upgrade somewhere else later.

As ever, FISO offers the left field solution to an otherwise right field problem.
This little exchange has given me an idea for my Salah -£0.2m/Silva dilemma. West Ham and Bournemouth have as good a defensive rotation as it is possible to get. Throw in Gomez for Liverpool and I have an enviable 1 from 3 - and even decent cover for Otamendi’s occasion weaker fixture.

I’ll follow up in STC but the idea came from you, here, Stem. Thanks

[baganboy]

PS: As above, too.
Had considered a downgrade and a later upgrade from RLC to AOC. Something like that might still happen later.

[baganboy]

After GW23 || Sub-season 5 COMPLETED (GW19-23) || Deficit - 31 (previously 86)

GW23.JPG

From last week’s deficit of 86, to a deficit of 31 this week. It has been a stellar 5 weeks. At the starting of this sub-season, i.e. end of GW18, I was at 43K. I am at 5K now at the end of GW23. It’s great.

_____________________________________________________________________

Goalkeeper(15/21)
Nothing worked on the GK front. But I am well tuned for the rest of the season with Adrian and Pickford.
Sub-Season Status: MISSED

Defenders
Azpilicueta position (39/23) DONE
Alonso position (41/23) DONE
Eveything worked out well here. The Azpilicueta Vertonghen move too. The two Chelsea players have served me well. And I am glad I did not rage transfer and held on.
Otamendi position (31/21) DONE – A low-key sub-season for one of the star performers for my team.
Jones position (14/21) MISSED – Tried the rotation thing, Failed. Perhaps the sad part was that I could not get Jones in to the Jones position at all, all season.
Sub-Season Status: 118/88par. Overperformed by 30 points! Such is the stuff dreams are made of.

Midfielders
Zaha position (26/23) DONE – Took the risk of getting in Lingard. It worked.
Richarlison position (37/23) DONE – Richarlison for 3 weeks – got me 2 assists. Son for 2 weeks – was blockbuster!
Sterling position (35/29) DONE - In 5 weeks, Sterling has given me 35 points. In the previous 9 weeks, Sane gave me 32 points. I am glad for Sterling.
Salah position (45/29) DONE – Oh hello, Cristiano!
From next GW, this will be considered a 10M MF/FW position i.e. 32 points.

Sub-Season Status: 143/103par. 40 points better than par!

Strikers

Kane position (51/32) - DONE. This was done in two weeks. And my stodgy captain choice has worked out well.
Morata position (18/32) MISSED– Morata was kept for 13 GWs. 13 easy fixtures. Morata got about a 3.5 ppg. This tells me that fixtures over form is a massive fail.

Sub-Season Status: 69/62par. Just about saved par, thanks to Kane.

Captain
(51/42) DONE – Even accounting for the triple captain fail, this was a successful captaincy week.

Points-Bucket challenge standings
The sub-season par is 318 points. I got 396. Even if I account for the DGW, (and calculations tell me that a normal DGW should result in 29 points above par (i.e. 91 points)- thus having encountered a DGW fail, I am still at 396 as opposed to 347 as a par score.

Planned Transfer for next week
Morata, Vertonghen Aguero, Robertson.

[No Way Jose]

Looks good mate. Killer Christmas!

[baganboy]

So's your team, mate. Keep up the good work!

[No Way Jose]

Nah ruined some good work this week with trying to be clever with my captaincy pick. Lessons learned this year. Next season if I can manage a similar effort I will be much better prepared to do well

[baganboy]

Long while to go yet, this season buddy. The position you are in right now, you should totally target top 1K. That's what I am targeting as well.

[No Way Jose]

Yeah I will take your word for it. I feel like I've lost some momentum this week so gotta try and get it back, as I said to you I'm a planner but felt like I was confused as to what direction I was aiming at due to the blank 28

I ended up not taking a hit this week and just did alli to salah. Calmed down eventually haha

[Redsnout]

Good call with timely Kun transfer. We have similar teams now, in fact exact front-8. Noticeably you have Ota and Robertson for my Jones and Chris (who would leave as soon as i don't have other pressing issues). Now taking a step back and looking at your team, I'm slightly surprised by your lightweight defence compared to your usual teams, though i know how your thought process behind it.

Arnie news was a good thing to wake up to, as it would give me sometime to think about my next transfers, hoping it would reduce the NTO's of Son, Lingard and Chris. Arnie's points was hurting me badly emotionally, as i took him out for Lingard seeing Carrol back in as striker.

On another note, how are you doing as a gunner seeing Alexis leaving finally?

[baganboy]

Redsnout - You are doing brilliantly! Keep the focus and you have the exact wherewithal to really get a massive rank this year. What got you here is good enough to get you further!

Arnautovic yes. I was quietly figuring out how to dismantle my team to get him in, and the injury news reduces that tension. I don't have to dismantle anything now haha.
The defence situation is not a happy one, you are 100% right. But I reasoned that for the next 4 GWs, Aguero+Robertson can give me more points than Firmino+Jones. So I chose that as my double transfer. Defence will be bolstered again before GW 30.

I am okay with Sanchez leaving. Loved him as a player, and your lot will have a solid player for you. But if he does not want to play for us, he doesn't want to play for us. It's okay. Mkhi is very similar to one of my favourite Arsenal players, Tomas Rosicky. Maybe he can work out well...

[baganboy]

After GW24 || Sub-season 6 (GW24-28) || Deficit - 31

GW24.JPG

A good stretch for me is a few steady weeks and then a good jump. A bad stretch is a good jump followed by a few under-par weeks. Steady weeks are a good thing. Like this one.
PS: am trying a 4-4-2 this sub-season, to offset the Aguero threat. I will perhaps also move to 3-4-3 sometime later, to take advantage of the Bournemouth fixtures.
_____________________________________________________________________
Goalkeeper(3/21)
Now is the time for Pickford to prove worthy of the hit I had taken in GW21. 3 points from that hit have been restored. 1 to go.
Sub-Season Status: 3/4

Defenders
6M equivalent rotating defender position (1/21) - To rotate between Mee and Robertson
Alonso position (6/23) - Who doesn’t like Alonso?
Otamendi position (2/21) - Doubts. City is not keeping CS often enough.
5.5M rotating defender/ forward position (1/19) - Could even become Wilson sometime.
Sub-Season Status: 10/17par. No worries.

Midfielders
7M Mid position (3/23) – Lingard is it. For now.
9M Mid position (2/29) – Son is a hold. One cannot sub players after a single blank.
Sterling position (5/29) – Sterling is a hold.
Salah position (2/29) – Salah is of course a hold. Did not have the heart to consider this a 10M MF/FW.
Sub-Season Status: 12/22par. Too early to worry.

Strikers
Kane position (8/32) – So consistent. Kane gives me almost an 8PPG as captain. And I (c) him when possible.
Other 10m+ Striker position (17/32) – Aguero. Nailed it! (Aguero+Robertson) gives me 18. (Jones+Firmino) would have given me 11. It’s incremental moves like those that move a manager up the ranks. Gather enough of those, and I will be fine.
Sub-Season Status: 25/13par. Nicely.

Captain - (8/35) - Above par. As is Kane...

Points-Bucket challenge standings
58 is 4 less than 62. Thus, this is technically a bad week. And it would be better if I were to go with the Aguero © call. But hey, you win some you lose some.

Planned Transfer for next week
Carry.

[baganboy]

The planned transfers need to be perhaps rejigged a little changed, considering the unfortunate circumstance of the probable GW28 Non-Blank.

[No Way Jose]

The planned transfers need to be perhaps rejigged a little changed, considering the unfortunate circumstance of the probable GW28 Non-Blank.

I'm roughly in the same boat but analyzing it again I've found that I don't necessarily want to change my plan too much as the planned ins were partly for GW28 but largely to catch the fixture changes for the likes of burnley, leicester, spurs, Liverpool etc and reduce Chelsea and united players

Means I can scrap the needs to improve my bench and work more on key points earners. Lingard will likely be removed for GW28 so I want to find someone in that bracket who is a good fit. I expect his place to be dicey at times

What are your plans mate? Any idea when you will WC?

[baganboy]

Means I can scrap the needs to improve my bench and work more on key points earners. Lingard will likely be removed for GW28 so I want to find someone in that bracket who is a good fit. I expect his place to be dicey at times

This is what I am thinking too. Both points. I am unsure I can carry Lingard for upto GW28, however - byt maybe I will have to.... The alternative is to get Wilson in...

Any idea when you will WC?

My earlier plan was for GW36. Will re-think over the weekend.

[No Way Jose]

Means I can scrap the needs to improve my bench and work more on key points earners. Lingard will likely be removed for GW28 so I want to find someone in that bracket who is a good fit. I expect his place to be dicey at times

This is what I am thinking too. Both points. I am unsure I can carry Lingard for upto GW28, however - byt maybe I will have to.... The alternative is to get Wilson in...

Any idea when you will WC?

My earlier plan was for GW36. Will re-think over the weekend.

Yeah you're right that it may need to be brought forward but at the moment I expect sanchez and lingard to rotate mid game between CAM/SS and RW which could be great for lingard so he's a hold if he keeps his place

yeah wilson is a decent option. bournemouth's fixtures are ok. I will say he has been a tad fortunate of late as he has scored unintentionally with a bad first touch and also assisted unintentionally with a bad touch as well in the last 3-4 weeks

Would lingard then become a 4.7-4.3 mid? to facilitate this?

I have ramsey, walcott, and even mkhi all very much on my watchlist for that spot if I can afford it. arnie's injury is unfortunate as he was a good player to get on late as a lingard replacement

[baganboy]

Another option: I could pull Lingard back to Oxlade-Chamberlain. One gameweek changes nothing. He takes quite a few of the free kicks as well. With VVD in the team, that could be a good thing.

[No Way Jose]

Yeah I was surprised against Swansea how many free kicks he took now phil is gone. At his price he doesn't have to score every week. He'd be what a 4.5 ppg target? He can do that if starting each games for sure

[Redsnout]

Ox is one player whom i overlooked, while looking for Lingard replacement. Was mulling over Shaqiri, Albrighton, Antonio, Allen types. Thanks guys. The problem with Lingard and Son for me isn't blanking in last games, it's the upcoming fixtures. Especially with Son, as i don't wanna ride those fixtures with 2 spurs attackers. Though Son could score in any of those matches, there are other options with better scoring odds.
Lingard is playing well, but its the Sanchez. I have seen ppl suggesting he would replace Mata at right wing. But i don't see Sanchez playing in the right side, you know well he prefers left or in the middle as it allows him to shoot (He told that in his first United interview too). Martial has to play too. Lingard is still a hold for me, but i would probably go Mahrez and Ox/Quaner route later for Son and Lingard/DCL, once the FA cup games are over. Not one of those transfers i'm excited about though

[baganboy]

NWJ - Yes, per my calculations, Ox would be a 4.6 odd PPG target..23 points per 5 GW. That could be 1 goal, 1 assist, 3bp and 2 CS in 5 GWs. I think that is very achievable.

Redsnout - that Mahrez-including plan is actually very good IMHO. Any move with Mahrez in it looks great to me at this moment.

And agree generally that being patient with the transfers and holding on to them till late makes good sense now. The 0.1 saved is often not remotely as valuable at this moment as it was earlier in the season.

[No Way Jose]

what do you think about aubameyang mate? I have suspicions he will be too similar to lacazette

laca moving to LW/inside forward?

tried to make a best side for you guys and had

Auba
Laca Ozil Mkhi
Xhaka Ramsey
Monreal Mustafi Koscielny Bellerin
Cech

I know arsene likes his fullbacks to provide majority of the width but that still is very narrow up top

[baganboy]

Hey NWJ.

Aubameyang should be able to play from the wings. I see him at a nominally left-sided role, interchanging with Laca.

Unfortunately, I do see the 4-3-3 (with the exact formation you suggest) as a forced move now, though we are still ideally suited for 3-4-3, with Ozil / Mkhi as the other part of the 3. Ramsey and Wilshere in the middle 2 of the 4.

Basically I have no clue what Wenger will do. In a 4-3-3 he needs a defensive shield. And that is someone like Fernandinho, not Wilshere.

[baganboy]

And I am literally having to stop myself from visiting the fpl site and doing something that looks exciting for 5 min

The mad thoughts I have had today are
Lingard Shaqiri
Son Shaqiri
RLC McArthur to facilitate Son Mahrez for a hit
Some weird 8-pointer hit for getting in Jones and Chilwell.

Basically, this has been pretty crazy.

[blahblah]

Which McArthur? One has a double break\fracture?

You need Mkh

[baganboy]

That Crystal Palace defensive mid fella, who pops in with goals once in a while.... Double leg break? Damn. Unfortunate.

Mkhi's evolution at Arsenal will be nice to see. Can be a Veron at Chelsea, but can equally be a Jonny Evans.

[blahblah]

The Everton one has the bust leg..... (done by Rondon who cried?)

A lil Arse AM just needs to be able to play 1-2's and finish Ozil's passes\missed shots

[Stemania]

At GW26: if you have a choice of either
Son Mahrez
or
Mee Smalling

who would you pick?
I am thinking 2. Is that wrong?

I'd be tempted to roll there BB (or better still, take the opportunity to try to deal with the DCL spot, which is currently cash sitting there doing very little). Who would you bench if you brought in and played Smalling?