To see less ads Register or Login ----- Daily Fantasy Sports games 18+

R_NZ FPL Blog

A forum for comment and discussion on Fantasy PremierLeague.com (FPL) Teams. Post your Rate My Team (RMT) messages here!
Post Reply
User avatar
Smurphy Paw
FISO Knight
Posts: 14519
Joined: 17 Aug 2006, 17:48
FS Record: Mediocre, apparently
13/14: FPL 1792; FIFA 14 Top 700.
17/18: FPL 696th; loads of mini-League wins and side game promotions
18/19 1FC Köln 5AS Champions
#1 Spring Super League regular season 19/20 & 20/21

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Morning Ruth
I hope that Wales is treating you well. We’re heading over there today to bodyboard with the kids before poorer weather and rising R-rate get in the way.

Without checking back for specifics I recall many an exchange about the relevance of fixtures and swings. You were always better at focussing them even though I knew they were relevant. I guess it’s a point about relative import. It’s not something I had (/do!) focus on as much and consequently one area where it shows is in my relative lack of success picking the best captain.
But FWIW I also saw some of the changes in fixture runs as having slightly less consequence for the team as a whole depending on the player being brought in. If that player is inconsistent (your Richarlison example above is a reasonable example) then that’s perhaps where the issue is. We talk about some players being fixture proof and it is those players who might take even more advantage of a poor opponent. A more middling player with less consistent returns should in theory also benefit but they remain inconsistent however easy or hard the opponent.
This would need study and I have seen a couple of posters this season commit to rotating super premiums and leaving the rest. It’ll be interesting to see how well it works for them; and also what impact on points contributions from the rest of their squads

Anyway, look after yourself and yours
Best wishes
SP

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Yeah, all about relative import. I would tend never to make a planning decision about my team without the fixture-ticker open and what I am saying is that I now believe the apparent certainty afforded by fixtures skewed my decisions too much. Wood for the trees and all that. In addition, most fixture-tickers are colour-coded - say shades of blue are favourable and shades of red unfavourable - and it is very easy to see a sequence of 'blue' fixtures coming up for a team and to think "Oh, I need to take advantage of that". But those shades of red and blue can be very misleading; the fixtures are factual and certain but the favourable-unfavourable appraisal made on the ticker isn't.

I really think that you need to consider individual fixtures quite carefully to try to understand what you are looking at. For example, Chelsea-Liverpool would be shown as a relatively unfavourable fixture for both teams in most tickers. But that's because the result of the game is quite doubtful, either team could easily win. So what? For an FPL manager what matters is what kind of game it is likely to be. And as I said to jacks, I see that game as more likely to be a 3-3 than a 0-0. So it's not really unfavourable for attacking players from either team. Conversely, put Chelsea or Liverpool against Palace and it will probably be marked as a favourable fixture because they are expected to win. But I would argue that the goals potential is smaller; that it is therefore an unfavourable fixture for attacking players from Chelsea/Liverpoool but favourable for their defenders.

Over-focus on fixtures is partly about the desire to throw a 'Hail Mary' pass every week (to use the US phrase) which, if not controlled, can cause you to chase phantoms. I do believe that there are a number of opportunities to make significant gains during the season and that some are easier for one team to grab onto than another - perhaps because of something as basic as the way the squad is structured. But the point is not to chase them, rather to wait for them to come to you and to practise spotting them when they do. That's the trick. Otherwise FOMO will govern your decision-making too much, to the detriment of your team's performance.

That's another reason why squad structure is important; it will make some opportunities harder to make use of whilst others are placed in easier reach. But you don't need every haul, just a sufficient balance of them. Try to chase them all and you will probably cost yourself overall.

User avatar
Hogmeister
Dumbledore
Posts: 6852
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 21:26
Location: Sitting in my tin can, far above the world
FS Record: Top 300 in all-time FPL rankings

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

You may be aware of this already but some planners (like the Ben Crellin one on FFHub) have fixtures colour coded for average, attack or defence (and if you want to, you can adjust the underlying metrics of which teams are stronger in attack/defence). You can toggle between them when assessing the overall fixture patterns.

And then the planner uses those different metrics when assessing the difficulty of the fixtures your squad will face - by using the attack strength of the opposition to determine the colour coding for a GK/defender, and vice-versa for a mid/forward.

User avatar
SirMattBugsby
Dumbledore
Posts: 5581
Joined: 17 Nov 2017, 08:43
Location: In the house!
FS Record: TCed Kun for that Newcastle game. Nothing since..

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Agree regarding the 'blue-red' syndrome. I have my own color coding this time, and separate for attacking and defensive fixtures. They will surely be recalibrated in the coming weeks.

Palace Southampton was a good example of how an 'easy' fixture can be hard for attacking returns. Maybe do Trent->AwB rather than Salah->Bruno?

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Hogmeister wrote: You may be aware of this already but some planners (like the Ben Crellin one on FFHub) have fixtures colour coded for average, attack or defence (and if you want to, you can adjust the underlying metrics of which teams are stronger in attack/defence). You can toggle between them when assessing the overall fixture patterns.

And then the planner uses those different metrics when assessing the difficulty of the fixtures your squad will face - by using the attack strength of the opposition to determine the colour coding for a GK/defender, and vice-versa for a mid/forward.
Sure, I am aware of that, the FFS ticker had that feature for as long as I remember. But essentially I am going in the opposite direction to the automation of FPL decisions according to this or that metric or spreadsheet or algorithm or whatever. What I am saying is that whenever the brain sees something coded and presented in that kind of way it tends to treat it as a fact. But it isn't a fact at all; it is an interpretation.

As an aside, this is a huge problem in general nowadays; the wide and suppurating divisions in US culture, for example, are largely produced by people seeing and absorbing different interpretations presented (whether online, via cable news or in written media) as if they are facts and believing them. This, of course, places a great deal of influence in the hands of those disseminating that information and that is how the general populace are manipulated. These arts - often referred to as 'influencing' but which should be called by their right name of manipulation and deception - are not accidental; they have been studied and analysed. It is an established fact of human psychology, for example, that people tend in general to believe what they are told, especially if it is repeated over and over from multiple sources. It is also well known that once a person has been persuaded to do something once they are more easily persuadable to do it again. There are many such factors and they are widely known and used by those that want to manipulate the actions of others - whether businesses, charities, political parties, political leaders or (hidden behind all that) financial interests.

It is a horrible problem; once integrity, decency and good faith is lost then people can't trust much of anything any more and it then takes an unusual effort for them to do other than to retreat into a narrow view of their own self-interest, supporting those that confirm their point of view and demonising those that don't. At which point they give up questioning what they are presented with and rather choose only to see what confirms their viewpoint and to avoid anything that may challenge it. This is the story of the demise of humankind. It's as if the Enlightenment never happened.


Anyways, back to FPL... The absolute top-line capability of an FPL manager is good judgement, I am sure of it. Sure, you need to be competent and to understand the mechanics and dynamics of what the game is and how it works but all of that knowledge, all the research you do and the study and the assessments and all the rest are only a support system to enabling you to exercise good judgement - hopefully better judgement than anyone else (otherwise you are just relying on being luckier over a 38-game stretch than everyone else). And one of the things I am saying is that as soon as you begin to automate your decision-making (even without realising you are doing so, by over-trusting tickers and the like) you are restricting and reducing your capacity to exercise judgement. Some people go the other way to me - they would like to eliminate judgement altogether and to perfect their automated modelling to render any other opinion obsolete. I can understand that in theory. There are reasons why I don't think it is the right way to go but let's just say that it isn't for me. So, what I have to try to 'perfect' or work on isn't how to improve my modelling but how to improve my judgement. One important factor in that is how you weight different inputs and factors. My reflection after a season away is that I tended to weight factors that could easily be measured (fixtures for example) too highly and to give correspondingly less weight than I should to the idea of having players with good potential to do well in FPL terms.

See, you can make a reasonable projection of how many points a player may score over a period of 6 games or better 12 games or better a season. It's much, much harder to know in which precise games those points will be accrued. Therefore, to micro-manage players in and out of your team based on one or two fixtures cannot be a winning strategy unless you are very lucky. If all the big points were scored in the games you expect then FPL would be easy. But they aren't.

I don't know if you know this but in most/all seasons it would be possible to win FPL with a 'dead team', in other words one that made no transfers and used no wildcards all season. That was, at least, true before the chips came in and I doubt they have changed the situation all that much. Now, on average a top-50 player takes something like 12-16 hits per season, so that's something like 50 transfers in total. Add maybe 12 each time they use a wildcard and we aren't far off 2 transfers per week overall. And even with all that, they aren't beating a team that made no transfers at all and never changed captain. Figure that out!

What it says to me is that players with good/high potential in FPL are just that and you want as many as possible that you can squeeze into your team/squad. That brings value into the equation because you have a limited budget so you have to look in terms of some kind of calculation of points potential against price (factored across the whole squad). I see that to be the name of the game and have realised (partly by reflecting on my pre-season appraisal last season) that personally I had lost sight of that to some degree (under-weighted it) in the chase for short-term advantage (which often doesn't materialise). So really, my comments about focusing too much on fixtures are nothing more than a personal self-reflection about the way I exercise my judgement. Whether it applies to anyone else only they can say, though I usually find that if someone presents a case based on their self-deliberation it quite often sheds some light on what I may be doing (possibly without realising it) myself.

Lord! I do write long essays, don't I. :roll: :lol:

User avatar
SirMattBugsby
Dumbledore
Posts: 5581
Joined: 17 Nov 2017, 08:43
Location: In the house!
FS Record: TCed Kun for that Newcastle game. Nothing since..

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Feel the same way regarding judgement. I think that's the part I 'miss' when I played as a 'casual': making the simple straightforward transfers and captaincy choices. Gameplay models give the false promise (imo) of replacing it.. and we do end up replacing our judgement with it sometimes, to our detriment.

It's interesting that you bring up the dead team. I have been toying with the idea of a semi-ghost team: a team I intend to leave untouched for large periods, with provision of an emergency transfer for long-term injuries and a transfer window during Christmas fixtures. The idea wasn't really with success in mind but I do think my interventions often make my team worse (thinking of selling Trent as we speak).

User avatar
Hogmeister
Dumbledore
Posts: 6852
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 21:26
Location: Sitting in my tin can, far above the world
FS Record: Top 300 in all-time FPL rankings

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

Think that’s the longest reply one of my posts has ever triggered :D

Interesting. I guess my take would be that planners (like anything else - player comparisons, opta stats, etc) are of course only an input. You still need to make your own personal judgement on which moves to make and when.

The planner I referred to is the first one I’ve seen where you can put your own squad (and potential targets) in and get a player-by-player assessment of fixture difficulty. Such planners may have been around for a while, and I just wasn’t aware of them.

But even that is just an input. What I am really looking for from such tools are the general guidelines that, for example, Liverpool’s upcoming fixtures are tougher than Man Utd’s. Whether (and when) you act on that information, say, to bring in Bruno for Salah, is down to your own judgement.

And I agree re hits - last year was my best ever year and I took just one hit all year - only discovered that when I went back to check and was quite astonished, I normally take a lot more than that. Of course it helps if you get your starting XI right and then don’t need to take early hits, but even so, just one for the whole season was very unusal for me :D So maybe there’s a message (“take fewer hits”) there - for at least me, personally.

One of my takeaways from your post is that you tend towards class (or form) over fixtures. And I wouldn’t argue with that. Yes, the best “dead” team last year would either have won or been damn close, there have been threads on that subject here on the last few weeks. And a permacaptain of Salah (c), KdB (vc) would have scored more than most of us managed by picking our captains each week. All of which argues that class is permanent and some players are fixture-proof.

However, I am happy to embrace all the information I can to inform my decisions, and having more forensically accurate fixture planners can only be a good thing I think - even though ultimately they are based on someone’s personal opinion of the strengths or weaknesses of specific teams. So as you say they are not facts, as such.

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Joccki_10 wrote: Hmm, OK. Thought he was being overlooked. Played every game at the end of last season bar the Norwich one. Created the most (big?) chances of any defender bar Robertson. £5.0M, was never in doubt to start in my team.
Well, that went perfectly for you, well done! :)

Remains to be seen whether he becomes a regular this season but given he's only 5m you might be able to wear some absences if you have cover? Reading between the lines, I think Lampard wants at least one energetic, attacking FB in the team so perhaps that's James at least until Chilwell is fit. I still think that Azpi & Chilwell will be the first-choice pair in the long run but we'll see. There's going to be plenty of rotation this season in any case I think, simply because the games are compressed into a shorter time-frame (so less rest).

Truth is, we don't have much idea how many players have been affected by Covid and/or quarantine, or which ones. We also have little idea which players have suffered from the short pre-season and which have essentially carried match fitness through from last season. So I think (for all teams) it's going to take some time to settle down into a pattern. Seems like a good time to be opportunistic where FPL is concerned, saving the first wildcard until a settled picture emerges (which probably means November)?

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Lampard post-match:

"Right-back is a position where I have two quality players I can pick, with slightly different attributes, and that is a good problem for me." That seems to indicate that the James situation is pretty much as I described.

"Christian Pulisic was training with us last week but he had a bit of discomfort a couple of days ago when he was trying to be in contention for today. It would have been a big ask for today and he has had to take a few steps back. We will have to see."

"A lot of players are not fully fit at the moment and that is just the way it is. Timo Werner is one who has had some games, he has a bit of fitness, and you could see that. He took a knock when he won the penalty which we hope is a dead leg. I would like to think if it is that we have a bit of time to get him back for Liverpool."

He also confirmed to CTV that he is thinking in terms of a 4-2-3-1 at the moment with the players he now has and commented about the various options for the #10 role (Havertz, Mount, Loftus-Cheek, Pulisic). But he wants it to be fluid and flexible so that it can be a 4-3-3 sometimes and he doesn't exclude using 3-4-3 on occasion either. Pretty much as expected I think.

User avatar
First Sub Podcast
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 4916
Joined: 28 Oct 2008, 16:33
FS Record: Twitter @TheFirstSub_FPL
Contact:

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Welcome back Ruth :)

User avatar
dod
FISOhead
Posts: 734
Joined: 31 Jul 2015, 23:49
FS Record: I have never won FPL.

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dod »

Great to see you back Ruth :D . And this quote from your post shows why ...

"As an aside, this is a huge problem in general nowadays; the wide and suppurating divisions in US culture, for example, are largely produced by people seeing and absorbing different interpretations presented (whether online, via cable news or in written media) as if they are facts and believing them. This, of course, places a great deal of influence in the hands of those disseminating that information and that is how the general populace are manipulated. These arts - often referred to as 'influencing' but which should be called by their right name of manipulation and deception - are not accidental; they have been studied and analysed. It is an established fact of human psychology, for example, that people tend in general to believe what they are told, especially if it is repeated over and over from multiple sources. It is also well known that once a person has been persuaded to do something once they are more easily persuadable to do it again. There are many such factors and they are widely known and used by those that want to manipulate the actions of others - whether businesses, charities, political parties, political leaders or (hidden behind all that) financial interests.

It is a horrible problem; once integrity, decency and good faith is lost then people can't trust much of anything any more and it then takes an unusual effort for them to do other than to retreat into a narrow view of their own self-interest, supporting those that confirm their point of view and demonising those that don't. At which point they give up questioning what they are presented with and rather choose only to see what confirms their viewpoint and to avoid anything that may challenge it. This is the story of the demise of humankind. It's as if the Enlightenment never happened."


That's not an aside at all. Understanding human psychology, and how to exploit it, is entirely germane to FPL. The game gives those of us who have a moral compass that does not allow us to exploit people in real life, an opportunity to play the Putin/Trump/Erdogan role without actually hurting anyone. Identifying areas of the FPL zeitgeist that are misleading or false, and ripe for exploitation, is part of the game I enjoy the most. Far more than the football bit if I'm being honest :lol: .

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW9 Survey

Actually I do now have a team, I entered it before GW5 (so missed the first 4 GWs). Basically just because my nephews were pestering me to enter a team in our family league and see if I can catch up (I started 300 points behind the leader). I thought it might be a good experiment to see if I can play FPL less obsessively (and with less engagement) and so far, so good! So, seeing that I have a few hours spare I'm going to have a bit of a ramble about what's going on in FPL.

My transfers so far have been almost entirely driven by injuries and (in one case) loss of a starting slot. So, a fairly easy management job. I have only taken one hit (to replace Pulisic with Ziyech before GW8) and that paid off well. As I noted before the start of the season, I do think Ziyech will be the pick of Chelsea's attacking assets, especially considering his slightly lower price than the others. One thing I have in mind is a previous observation that attackers (especially at the 'big' teams) really need 2 scores in a game ( 2 assists for example) to near enough guarantee good BPs. Therefore I have focused on attackers I think are more likely to do that - whether goalscorers that can be expected to add a few assists during the season or players that should get plenty of assists coupled with the odd goal (Ziyech is an example).

For that reason, I became much keener on Kane when I saw how he was playing deeper this season, a bit like Firmino does at Liverpool (though not to the same degree). Kane is a far better finisher than Firmino and he will always get into the box and score goals, but the addition (I expect) of more assists to his game improves him as a FPL asset in my view even if it means somewhat less goals. It is the potential for 2 attacking scores in one game that I am looking for. So he was straight into my GW5 team and won't be leaving; the run of games he has upcoming (MCI che ARS cpl liv) doesn't worry me at all because the tough City game is followed by 3 London derbies and he tends to thrive in those, at least historically. I'm not sure it is quite the same in an empty stadium but I'm still not really sure what to make of that factor - not in terms of the FPL effect anyway.

Another example of my '2 attacking scores' idea will be my likely transfer before GW9. Wilson has to go (another injury) and as I have 3.1m banked I have lots of options. But I'll probably be going for Richarlison (as long as it looks like he'll be back safe and in good time from Uruguay) because he's another one that has both goals and assists in his locker. I could have Calvert-Lewin at the same price but much prefer Richarlison, who simply has more strings to his bow as far as I can see. Richarlison isn't far behind Calvert-Lewin on xG90 but has a much better xA90 and also has penalties as far as I know. I reckon he should be a good addition for the next few weeks and a good captain option for GW9 (which is a bit of an issue for me).

That issue of penalties is really troublesome for FPL. There are so many being awarded now with the new handball rules and the freakishness of VAR that it almost becomes a matter of packing as many penalty-takers into your team as possible. :( That's not really that challenging, is it? But you also have to be careful about it; Vardy, for example, has a huge xG90 at the moment but he has had 7 penalties in 8 games and those account for 6 of his 9 goals. Even at this season's rate he's not going to get that ratio of penalties all season. I think his stats and his FPL returns so far are therefore over-cooked. Though I'm sure AR won't be complaining, because as far as I recall from when I was last on, he had Vardy in his GW1 team! 8-)

In the long run, I don't know who I will have alongside Kane in my 4-4-2. Maybe back to Wilson (who will score plenty well enough for 6.5m and has pens as well) or Antonio when fit again. There are other decent options at or around 6m so that could even be a slot to rotate players in and out of for runs of 3-5 games. Could also be Werner but that would depend on my deciding to go cheaper at the back. My 3rd forward is Brewster, who is perfect perfect perfect for a hybrid 4-4-2. In fact the possibility to play him sometimes in a 3-4-3 is one thing that would encourage me to have a cheaper defence. 4-4-2, the way I work it, essentially has a forward, a midfielder and 2 (or 3) defenders at 4.5m and you are picking the best of those 4 to start every week for you. It's absolutely my favourite structure for FPL.

There are other factors behind the consideration of going cheaper at the back. Looked at in terms of xG conceded after 8 games there's only 1 team that is running at a rate of less than 1 per game (Chelsea, and only barely) and there are 10 teams that are within 2 xGc of that, including the likes of Brighton, Villa, Soton, Burnley & W. Ham. Liverpool aren't even in the top 10! So that really throws expectations right up in the air, because the 5 teams I mentioned all have good options at 4.5m or thereabouts who have some attacking potential as well - I'm thinking in terms of Targett, Masuaku, Coufal, Walker-Peters, Lamptey, Taylor for example. To fashion a rotation that is fairly cheap and has decent prospects using some of those doesn't look too far-fetched.

At the same time, TAA and Robertson are bound to suffer from Liverpool's woes at CB, at least in terms of CSs. And at their prices, attacking returns (even if they get a good few) won't be enough without a steady flow of 6-pointers. The only 'top' teams I really trust (to a degree) for CSs right now are City (where Dias is nailed, has enough goal threat and is only 5.5m, and Cancelo at 5.4m has great attacking threat if he keeps his place, something I personally think is worth the risk), Mourinho's Spurs (who have Dier nailed and with some goal threat at 4.9m! but also have tough fixtures upcoming) and Chelsea (Mendy has made a huge difference). The point is that even here the defenders you'd probably want are 5.5m or less, Chilwell apart (and neither he nor Zouma will keep scoring at their current ratio). So I don't see that it's necessary to spend as much as might previously have been advisable. Even if you decide that Bellerin's attacking threat is worth adding (maybe from GW12) he's only 5.1m and PvA is only 5.4m if you wanted a go with him. Personally I have Dias already and will likely add Cancelo soon. Quite happy to have 3 sub-5.0 defenders alongside of those two.

What this all amounts to is an 'easy' season for FPL. The lack of budget pressure occasioned by the possibility to have a pretty cheap defence will mean that it is harder to get an edge and that luck is likely to play a bigger part. The best managers come to the fore when budget pressure is high, not when it is low. Anyone that wants to do really well in FPL this season (if it pans out this way) will need to run very hot on captaincy and will need a well-sorted structure that allows transfers to be focused in attacking areas. I'd think thrice before taking hits as well if I were playing seriously. Fortunately, having started in GW5 I don't need to try too hard and can just do anything I want! :D

In case anyone is mildly interested, this is how my team will likely line up in GW9:

Martinez
Targett Dias Masuaku
Salah Barkley Ziyech Sterling
Brewster Kane Richarlison(c)

Ryan Anguissa Ayling Dier & 1.8m


Dier is on the chopping block considering Spurs' upcoming fixtures and will probably be switched for Cancelo in GW10. Villa's fixtures (and form) are so good that I don't really need Ryan (he could be a 4.0) but budget isn't stressed right now and Ryan will come in useful in the odd game perhaps. Actually Villa - with all their under-priced options - are tricky right now. Who'd have thought that anyone could wish they had a slot for a 4th Villa player? :lol: I really like Barkley at 5.9m - fantastic value - but it would be nice to slip Watkins in as well!

Hope your season is going well. :P

FP1990
Treebeard
Posts: 101
Joined: 08 Aug 2016, 13:12
FS Record: Great

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by FP1990 »

Very interesting insight, as always. I'm on my wildcard and stuck between downgrading Grealish to Barkley to free up some cash for some defensive upgrades like Dias or sticking with a 4.5m such as coufal. Do you think Grealish is worth the extra 1.5m? he's looking better and better each week

User avatar
Stevieste
Dumbledore
Posts: 9599
Joined: 19 Aug 2017, 10:28
FS Record: 24,360

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Stevieste »

FP1990 wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 07:03 Very interesting insight, as always. I'm on my wildcard and stuck between downgrading Grealish to Barkley to free up some cash for some defensive upgrades like Dias or sticking with a 4.5m such as coufal. Do you think Grealish is worth the extra 1.5m? he's looking better and better each week
You answered your own question there i think 😉

Nice team score score far, im surprised you hit the WC there, your squad looked very good and just needed a few tweaks imo.
Good luck going forward anyway and if wouod defo keep Grealish, ive been watching a lot of villa games and he looks the one who could haul every week, we great saves or goal line clearances stopping him.

Nice write up that also Ruth, some good insight there to take on board and you will have to show us the family league after xmas, it be good to see how much ground you can make up starting 300 points behind 👍🏻
Last edited by Stevieste on 12 Nov 2020, 12:00, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

FP1990 wrote: Very interesting insight, as always. I'm on my wildcard and stuck between downgrading Grealish to Barkley to free up some cash for some defensive upgrades like Dias or sticking with a 4.5m such as Coufal. Do you think Grealish is worth the extra 1.5m? He's looking better and better each week.
I'd put it like this... Both Barkley & Grealish are very good value. Seriously, Barkley is playing #10 a lot of the time and he hasn't played that position since he was at Everton, where he scored a good few goals. He's an absolute steal at 6m. But Grealish at 7.5m is also seriously under-priced if you buy the idea that Villa are substantially improved this season. Personally I do think that's the case; the addition of Barkley & Watkins is big for them in attack, the renewed fitness of McGinn helps them in midfield and Martinez is a huge upgrade in goal. I think they are capable of 50+ points and a top-half finish.

Barkley improves Grealish, if only by giving opponents something else to worry about and blocking the tactic of 'stop Grealish, stop Villa'. In fact they probably improve each other because they play well together. A difference of 1.5m means that Grealish would need to out-perform Barkley by something like 1.25 ppg to deliver equivalent value and I think he's on track to more or less do that. Which makes them equally good on value in my projection.

So, which to have? Well, if you have 1.5m going to waste then Grealish would certainly be a good place to put it. If you need it elsewhere then I'd not think twice about having Barkley instead. Either are 4-star options in my view, with the only additional comment that Grealish has more potential to be used as an occasional captain if you think you might ever do that. Personally I don't think I'd be very likely to captain a Villa player though.

User avatar
Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 7522
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13
FS Record: Unknown.

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 10:18
FP1990 wrote: Very interesting insight, as always. I'm on my wildcard and stuck between downgrading Grealish to Barkley to free up some cash for some defensive upgrades like Dias or sticking with a 4.5m such as Coufal. Do you think Grealish is worth the extra 1.5m? He's looking better and better each week.
So, which to have? Well, if you have 1.5m going to waste then Grealish would certainly be a good place to put it. If you need it elsewhere then I'd not think twice about having Barkley instead. Either are 4-star options in my view, with the only additional comment that Grealish has more potential to be used as an occasional captain if you think you might ever do that. Personally I don't think I'd be very likely to captain a Villa player though.
Nice to hear from you Ruth; always good to have opinions with detailed reasoning on fiso.

I had the option of Barley/Grealish a few weeks ago - I think they're both good value as you suggest. I chose Grealish because I think the incremental points he offers from Barkley is more than I could gain anywhere else for that money. The upgrade is well worth it imo. But no, I wouldn't captain Villa either.

FP1990
Treebeard
Posts: 101
Joined: 08 Aug 2016, 13:12
FS Record: Great

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by FP1990 »

Stevieste wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 09:21
FP1990 wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 07:03 Very interesting insight, as always. I'm on my wildcard and stuck between downgrading Grealish to Barkley to free up some cash for some defensive upgrades like Dias or sticking with a 4.5m such as coufal. Do you think Grealish is worth the extra 1.5m? he's looking better and better each week
You answered your own question there i think 😉

Nice team score score far, im surprised you hit the WC there, your squad looked very good and just needed a few tweaks imo.
Good luck going forward anyway and if wouod defo keep Grealish, ive been watching a lot of villa games and he looks the one who could haul every week, we great saves or goal line clearances stopping him.

Nice write up that also Ruth, some good insight there to take on board and you will have to show us the family league after xmas, it be good to see how much ground you can make up starting 300 points behind 👍🏻
Thankyou, could well be a rash decision. As you say my team wasnt looking to unhealthy tbh but fortune favours the brave/stupid!

I'll stick with Grealish and now Watkins and hope for a few hauls over the next few weeks!

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Sutter Kane wrote:I chose Grealish because I think the incremental points he offers from Barkley is more than I could gain anywhere else for that money.
Hi, SK. Your season going well?

Your comment just about summarises it I think but it does depend on how you are structured too. 1.5m is the top-line difference between Chilwell or Laporte and a 4.5m defender and that could well appear to deliver as much or better than Grealish over Barkley. But that then depends on whether your 4.5m defender would be part of a rotation otherwise; essentially the question is whether you aren't actually taking Laporte/Chilwell over a rotation of 2 players.

That's why it is never easy to give a simple yes/no answer to a question like this.

Gambit
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3427
Joined: 02 Nov 2014, 16:36

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Gambit »

I’ll be using the money saved when moving Taa to cancelo on upgrading barkley to grealish.

Barkley has done well so far and will continue to outperform 6m (i got him for 5.9) but Grealish i think is in for a big season, i also worry that given the fixtures he could soon get out of reach as he pushes towards 8m.

Anyway, great to see you back Ruth.

User avatar
Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 7522
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13
FS Record: Unknown.

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 15:44
Sutter Kane wrote:I chose Grealish because I think the incremental points he offers from Barkley is more than I could gain anywhere else for that money.
Hi, SK. Your season going well?
It's OK thanks. DCL aside, I've owned most players at the wrong times and captained Salah/KDB at the wrong times but it could be worse: some better players than me are struggling at a worse rank. I still have my WC but no idea, literally, when the best time to use it is. Maybe never. :twisted:

User avatar
Oxford NZ
Dumbledore
Posts: 6923
Joined: 06 Jan 2017, 03:35
FS Record: They think it's all over!

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Oxford NZ »

Hi Ruth. Nice to see you pop in to post some more entertaining and informative posts :)
I hope you do not mind me plugging the "divisional championships" on here, Round 2 is just about to kick off and anyone wishing to join will be welcome and added to the Sunday league.

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Sutter Kane wrote:...some better players than me are struggling at a worse rank.
Yeah, it must have been a bit bonkers so far - teams & players having little or no pre-season, then having a highly compressed schedule amidst an epidemic and all of that leading to erratic team form and a significantly increased level of players being lost to injury/quarantines... I thought it would take until after the 3rd International Break (=now) until things were more settled in any case, even without the incidence of injuries. So overall there will have been constant waves of unpredictability and that's another reason why luck will be playing a greater part so far.

I only had a team since GW5 and every transfer I have made so far (including a hit) has been caused by an injury to one or another of my players. Now I have Wilson injured and Salah quarantining and only 1 FT available. So I expect that plenty of good managers will find that they have essentially been fighting fires all season. :lol: I mean, who could have imagined that Liverpool's defence - which many top managers will have relied on - would be decimated to the point where they have only achieved 1 CS in 8 games? :!: Mind you, seeing that they had such a clear run with injuries last season, maybe it will be good for them to experience a bit of what City have had to face.

It's hard to know how best to react when a spate of injuries happens to your FPL team. You can easily end up turning those injuries into hits and giving points away. Personally I think it's an additional argument this season to ensure you have a worthwhile bench so your arm isn't twisted. For example, my personal inclination as it stands is to keep Salah - he will only miss 1 game after all - because to remove him and then get him back would effectively have a cost of 8 points. Although the temptation is there to get Fernandes and captain him - I'm sure a fair few will do that. But all you need is yet another injury or red card or something when you are already in hit territory and things can start running away from you. I can certainly remember that having happened to me in the past and nowadays I would tend to swallow the immediate pain rather than spending points chasing a remedy that may not be there.

User avatar
Aldershot Rejects
Dumbledore
Posts: 9586
Joined: 03 Aug 2011, 17:15
Location: Kent
FS Record: 5th Metro (2010-11); 146 - Sky (2015-16); 218 - Sky (2014-15); 386 - Sky (2020-21); 636 - FPL (2017-18); last 16 Sky Cup (2018-19)

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 11 Nov 2020, 22:47 GW9 Survey

Though I'm sure AR won't be complaining, because as far as I recall from when I was last on, he had Vardy in his GW1 team! 8-)
Well remembered, although I switched him out for Kane on my GW5 WC. :)

Seriously contemplating getting him back in this week despite the caveats which you set out. Although I suspect his penalty rate is unsustainable this season continues to surprise us - I also like his fixtures.

Strangely, my side has managed to avoid too many fires since WC although with Spurs fixtures toughening (and having Kane and Son) and Everton possibly running cold, some changes are now due.

Salah presents another problem although I'm quite content to put him on the bench for a week. Robertson is also a dilemma although again I like Liverpool's fixtures from GW10 and having a Liverpool defender may soon become a differential! Less clear is how to take advantage of City's upcoming fixtures - Sterling or KDB?

Good to see you back on here. Hope Wales is treating you well?

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Probably KDB I guess. Before the season began I'd have said Sterling, partly because I couldn't see KDB replicating last season's FPL returns, I think that was a bit of a freak season even for him. But apparently he is now on penalties for City (if missing the last one didn't change that) and there are so many penalties this season that I think it swings the balance marginally in his favour.

Knowing that you are a big defence guy, I'd for sure be stocking up with 2 City defenders. I'll be going with Dias and Cancelo myself. I have toyed with going cheaper at the back but if there's one team I can see having a lot of CSs upcoming it is City. Between GW10 & GW22 (13 games) they play Burnley twice and WBA twice (the two least potent attacks in the PL) as well as Fulham, Newcastle, SheffUtd, Palace & Brighton. There should be a lot of CSs there. Dias scored a goal per 10 games at Benfica - suggestive of someone that gets on the end of corners quite well - and Cancelo has a lot of good attacking characteristics, always assuming he keeps his place (which I think he mostly will).

User avatar
Aldershot Rejects
Dumbledore
Posts: 9586
Joined: 03 Aug 2011, 17:15
Location: Kent
FS Record: 5th Metro (2010-11); 146 - Sky (2015-16); 218 - Sky (2014-15); 386 - Sky (2020-21); 636 - FPL (2017-18); last 16 Sky Cup (2018-19)

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 13 Nov 2020, 23:29 Probably KDB I guess. Before the season began I'd have said Sterling, partly because I couldn't see KDB replicating last season's FPL returns, I think that was a bit of a freak season even for him. But apparently he is now on penalties for City (if missing the last one didn't change that) and there are so many penalties this season that I think it swings the balance marginally in his favour.

Knowing that you are a big defence guy, I'd for sure be stocking up with 2 City defenders. I'll be going with Dias and Cancelo myself. I have toyed with going cheaper at the back but if there's one team I can see having a lot of CSs upcoming it is City. Between GW10 & GW22 (13 games) they play Burnley twice and WBA twice (the two least potent attacks in the PL) as well as Fulham, Newcastle, SheffUtd, Palace & Brighton. There should be a lot of CSs there. Dias scored a goal per 10 games at Benfica - suggestive of someone that gets on the end of corners quite well - and Cancelo has a lot of good attacking characteristics, always assuming he keeps his place (which I think he mostly will).
Interesting. wrt City defence I've already got Cancelo (along with Chilwell and Robertson) and I'd wondered about doubling up on either Chelsea or City defence if I decided to lose Robertson. I wasn't aware of the Dias stat although his attacking stats at City are negligable.

User avatar
SirMattBugsby
Dumbledore
Posts: 5581
Joined: 17 Nov 2017, 08:43
Location: In the house!
FS Record: TCed Kun for that Newcastle game. Nothing since..

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Nice to hear again from you RNZ. One question: how are you managing without Chilwell?? I don't have him and it's difficult watching Chelsea games! Ziyech has increased his potential even more..

Maybe it's easier as a fan? Certainly is for me with Bruno

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

SirMattBugsby wrote: Nice to hear again from you RNZ. One question: how are you managing without Chilwell?? I don't have him and it's difficult watching Chelsea games! Ziyech has increased his potential even more..

Maybe it's easier as a fan? Certainly is for me with Bruno Image
I'm not playing so seriously this season so it doesn't bother me in the slightest, I'm just happy to see him doing so well. But also, I don't expect his level of FPL returns (which is essentially based on 1 game) to continue, not at all, neither do I see a steady flow of CSs from Chelsea in the next weeks. They have improved defensively but not that much. 6m is too much for him when you can have a City defender (with much better fixtures and prospects) for 0.5m or so less. If I wanted to bet on an attacking defender in the next time it would be Cancelo or PvA.

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Why Not Fernandes?

Seems like Fernandes is appearing to many FPL managers as a big deal for GW9. This began even before Salah's Covid diagnosis but has redoubled since. So far, Fernandes has around 350k NTIs - that's about 5% of teams and probably 10% of active teams - and he now has over 25% overall ownership. The players that are primarily making way for him appear to be Salah (-260k NTIs) and Son (-200k NTIs). So I'm going to take a look at the whys and wherefores behind this and discuss some of the principles involved. Apart from managers chasing last week's points (Fernandes hauled in GW8), the most obvious reason concerns the GW9 captaincy so let's deal with that first.

GW9 Captaincy

OK, so there is an issue with choosing a captain in GW9. City play Spurs and that would tend to put people off from picking a captain from either team - they are two of the best defensive units in the PL right now and games between big teams can in any case quite often be very cagey, especially when Mourinho is involved. Liverpool play Leicester and there's a similar calculation being made there, though with less reason I think. Liverpool have a decimated defence and Klopp will know that they need to score plenty; that game could be anything as far as I can see. But Salah is out and that takes away the most obvious Liverpool captain; meanwhile it would be daring (though not irrational) to give the nod to Vardy in a game like that.

That places Chelsea @ Newcastle, Arsenal @ Leeds, Everton @ Fulham and United v WBA as the most obvious options for finding a captain. Some have also mentioned Grealish for his home game against Brighton and that's not at all a bad shout but I'll exclude it for now as I don't think many managers will be ready to captain a Villa player yet. Brighton, in any case, are one of the more solid defensive teams this season and that's a game that doesn't look like a goalfest to me. I think you can also (practically) exclude Arsenal as well, simply because it's hard to know who. Aubameyang is less effective from a FPL standpoint when playing wide (as he often is this season) and Arsenal's following fixtures (Wolves & Spurs) aren't propitious in terms of bringing him in right now. So that leaves Chelsea, Everton and United.

The thing with United is that they are perceived to be playing what is probably the weakest defence in the PL. I'm not sure that's true - more about that shortly - but they are certainly one of the weaker teams anyway. However, United themselves are very in-and-out. Over the last 4 PL games they have averaged 1.33 xG per game, that's really nothing to excite. At the same time, WBA have been improving defensively - Bilic is experienced enough to know that without a solid platform his team has no chance of surviving in the PL - and over the last 4 PL games they have averaged an xGc of 1.12. They haven't had an xGc of more than 2 for almost 2 months (the Chelsea game). Now, OK, maybe United will have a 'going' day, it's always possible. But it seems more likely to me that WBA will make matters difficult. Then there is the fact that United have a tricky and very important CL game next Tuesday away in Turkey. They need to win that game. So, if things go well for them against WBA there could well be a temptation to remove Fernandes early. He might haul - sure he might. But it is by no means surefire.

Now, I won't go into detail about other captain options, it is only necessary to clarify that good ones exist. Grealish is feasible. Chelsea are hitting their straps now as an attacking force, especially since Ziyech's return from injury, so Ziyech and Werner would be valid options against one of the weaker defensive teams. And Everton have a plum fixture with Richarlison back. If he proves to be the missing link (as many associated with Everton seem to suggest) then it would not be terribly surprising to see Everton put a few past Fulham. Calvert-Lewin (who is already in a lot of teams) and Richarlison look valid options for the GW9 captaincy as well, then. Personally I want Richarlison and will bring him in for Wilson as I mentioned in an earlier post.

The upshot of this is that I don't see Fernandes to be anything close to a 'necessary' captain pick for this week. I'm not sure he's even the best, though doubtless I would captain him if I had him. The question is whether he's worth bringing in simply for that purpose.

Future Perspective

Well, for this you need to look both at the player you are bringing in and the one you are removing. Starting with the former, I don't think that under normal circumstances this would be a time to bring a United player in. They are in a very tricky CL group with 3 good teams and will be playing every midweek for the next month. At the same time, they must play reasonably solid teams in the PL after WBA - first Soton and WHam, who each have no midweek games to contend with, and then City after that. Do you really want Fernandes for those, considering that he could well be blocking you from someone else - maybe Salah, maybe KDB? If not, you have to consider that bringing him in is 2 transfers, not one. In many cases that is -8 points. Really? It begins to look then that you are gambling quite heavily on his performance in GW9.

At the same time, Salah will have games against Brighton, Wolves and Fulham from GW10-12. They are distinctly better than what United have and Salah would be a likely captain in GW10 & GW12. If, as seems likely, Salah only has to miss GW9 because of Covid, it could easily be that those removing him for Fernandes now would be shooting themselves in the foot. On the other hand, replacing Son with Fernandes looks better. Spurs have a bunch of tricky fixtures upcoming and you could reasonably decide that you'd be happy without Son until after Xmas. I think that would be a much easier transfer to justify.

The principle here really concerns whether (and how soon) you are likely to want the removed player back. If it's soon (maybe immediate) then the transfer must be considered more costly than if it's many weeks away. It is necessary to look at the upcoming prospects of both the player you are getting and the player you are removing, in other words. Not to fixate on one week, even the captaincy in one week. As I have noted before, it is relatively easy to project a player's returns over 6, 8 or 10 games. But much less easy for one game only. Especially with attackers. Doesn't mean that bringing Fernandes in and captaining him in GW9 is a bad idea; it means it is a higher-risk gamble. It needs to pay off big in GW9 because you are quite possibly only facing a negative drag after that.

Richarlison

That's why my transfer this week will probably be Wilson :arrow: Richarlison. I love Everton's fixtures GW9-11 (Fulham, Leeds, Burnley) and that therefore gives me 3 cracks at it proving worthwhile - 4 if you like because I'll probably captain Richarlison in GW9. Everton's game being moved to Sunday just makes it even more comfortable - no worry about fatigue after his return from Uruguay. I don't really want Wilson for that period (especially with an uncertain hamstring prognosis) but will be happy to bring him back for WBA, Leeds, Fulham after that. Though I should also have enough funds by then to bring Werner into that slot should that seem better.

A transfer - any transfer - always generates a chain of consequences for your team. It's not that planning weeks ahead is wise - you will never know for sure what you'll want or need to do in 4 weeks time - but planning for what you might want to do is another matter. The worst transfers are ones that block you from options you subsequently want to follow (or necessitate giving points away in hits). In the long run, I don't think that you succeed in FPL by being a day trader.

User avatar
Ruth_NZ
Grumpy Old Gorilla
Posts: 9156
Joined: 25 May 2015, 22:46

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:Dias scored a goal per 10 games at Benfica, suggestive of someone that gets on the end of corners quite well...
Interesting. I wasn't aware of the Dias stat although his attacking stats at City are negligible.
Yeah, as luck would have it, he scored twice for Portugal in a 3-2 win against Croatia on Tuesday. Just a shame (for me) that it didn't happen in a PL game. But it underlines the fact that there is some threat there. Often with CBs, they won't have many chances, it is more a matter of getting on the end of corners or having something fall to them. So their stats will seldom look good. What matters is not how many chances they get but whether they have the knack of converting them when they happen. From what I can tell, Dias has that.

User avatar
Aldershot Rejects
Dumbledore
Posts: 9586
Joined: 03 Aug 2011, 17:15
Location: Kent
FS Record: 5th Metro (2010-11); 146 - Sky (2015-16); 218 - Sky (2014-15); 386 - Sky (2020-21); 636 - FPL (2017-18); last 16 Sky Cup (2018-19)

Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 18 Nov 2020, 12:11
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:Dias scored a goal per 10 games at Benfica, suggestive of someone that gets on the end of corners quite well...
Interesting. I wasn't aware of the Dias stat although his attacking stats at City are negligible.
Yeah, as luck would have it, he scored twice for Portugal in a 3-2 win against Croatia on Tuesday. Just a shame (for me) that it didn't happen in a PL game. But it underlines the fact that there is some threat there. Often with CBs, they won't have many chances, it is more a matter of getting on the end of corners or having something fall to them. So their stats will seldom look good. What matters is not how many chances they get but whether they have the knack of converting them when they happen. From what I can tell, Dias has that.
i saw the Portugal thing. I guess for me the issue is whether I go with Dias or Laporte who is 0.5m more expensive but who probably has greater goal and bp threat (although the sample size to date is very small). This would be for a City double-up.

View Latest: 1 Day View Your posts
Post Reply

Return to “FPL Team Diaries & RMTs”