2017/18 TOP 12 & TOP 20k ANALYSIS
This study compiles some key data from the top-12 FPL finishers and from a cross-section of the top-20k and will also make some short commentaries. To ease the comparison,
Green has been used for the
Top 12 and
Blue for the
Top 20k throughout.
Brown is used for season 2016/17 numbers.
To give a cross-section of the top 20k I have selected 12 teams from the FISO league ranked at (or close to) the following points in the OR: 1k, 2k, 3k, 4k, 5k, 6k, 8k, 10k, 12k, 14k, 17k, 20k (as last season). So slightly biased towards the top 10k. Fusen's tool has been used, as well as FPL Discovery (and a fair bit of manual labour).
For detailed comparison, the section with last season's top-12 data begins
here and for the top-20k
here. Reference will be made to last season's data in some of the commentary.
1. Bench Boost
The
BB scores of the top 12 were: 14; 12; 22; 18; 10; 25; 19
*; 19; 19; 21; 7
*; 10
*;
Average 16.3 (last season
20.0).
The
BB scores in the top 20k were: 8; 27
*; 20; 17; 6; 5; 16; 8; 13; 9; 20; 21;
Average 14.2 (
16.4).
It should be noted that the BB scores shown have been adjusted to represent the weakest bench that week in cases where the manager hadn't done so. Hits have not been taken into account because it's hard to tie a hit specifically to the BB but the scores shown therefore don't necessarily represent true net values for the BB, they represent the maximum actual value. Those marked
* were played outside of a DGW. The average with a SGW BB in this group was 15.8, so barely different to the DGW BB. It may also be worth noting that the highest BB score was from the one manager that played it in GW1.
Overall BB averages are down from last season, perhaps representing the tricky nature (in terms of rotation) of the most popular weeks for the BB this season (20 of the 24 teams utilised the BB in DGW34 or 37). My assessment remains that a GW1 BB that can achieve 10-12 points, easing the complications and compromises later on (and reducing any need for hits and/or a 'forced' wildcard) is a perfectly sound way to use the BB chip. If anything, that idea is further confirmed by what can be seen here.
As we will probably see in most categories, the top 20k cross-section average undershoots the top 12 but not hugely.
2. Triple Captain
The
TC scores of the top 12 were: 11
*; 4; 3; 3; 3; 3; 4; 3; 2; 8; 3; 10;
Average 4.75 (
13.25).
The
TC scores in the 20k group were: 29
*; 8; 8; 3; 3; 3; 8; 8; 3; 8; 4; 8;
Average 7.75 (
9.4).
The averages here are obviously freakish; the top-12 number undershoots even a par score for a normal captaincy. This is despite the TC being theoretically the best (or one of the best) captaincy opportunities a manager can find in 38 weeks.
What is interesting is that only 10 of 24 managers here followed the 'standard' FFS consensus of a Kane TC in GW22. Last season the popularity of the FFS recommendation (Aguero in GW27 for 9 points) was bigger. But those that swerved the standard route this season mostly didn't gain much because the alternative opportunities (Kane in GW37 for 8 points, for example) didn't do much better. The big winner was the brave manager that TC'd Salah in GW31 for 29 points.
3. Wildcards
The
1st Wildcard was played in the following gameweeks: 8; 8; 15; 8; 6; 10; 8; 8; 10; 8; 19; 8.
The
1st Wildcard was played in the following gameweeks: 2; 8; 12; 6; 4; 10; 10; 14; 8; 8; 4; 13.
The
2nd Wildcard was played in the following gameweeks: 25; 32; 32; 32; 33; 27; 28; 32; 28; 32; 28; 28.
The
2nd Wildcard was played in the following gameweeks: 23; 32; 33; 32; 32; 36; 33; 32; 33; 28; 32; 32.
There is no data available for these groups for 1st wildcard usage last season but it seems clear that this season, at least, the early 1st wildcard wasn't ideal. GW8 was the most popular amongst the most successful teams (7 of 12) and only one of them went any earlier. Amongst the 20k group it was more mixed but still with 2/3 of them wildcarding in GW8 or later.
The 2nd wildcard timing is interesting, though. Last season only 1 team in the top 12 used the 2nd wildcard before GW32; this season 50% of them did. Perhaps the assumption that the 2nd wildcard should be held for the DGW period (perhaps to set up the BB, for example) is weakening its hold? Similarly to the BB (where 25% of the top 12 used it outside of a DGW), it seems that the most successful teams were perhaps more willing to diverge from the conventional wisdom.
4. Free Hit
Obviously there is no data from last season as this was the first appearance of the FH chip. Looking at scores achieved would be misleading because the FH chip is more about how much you can beat the average by in the week when you play it.
The
FH chips of the top 12 were played in GW: 31; 35; 35; 35; 35; 35; 31; 35; 31; 35; 31; 34.
The
FH chips of the top 20k group were played in GW: 22; 35; 35; 35; 35; 34; 35; 35; 35; 35; 35; 35.
A vast consensus towards use in a BGW and every one of those that used the FH in such a way achieved a high GW rank in that week. Those that used it differently (3 of 24) appeared to do less well with it in terms of GW rank, although it's hard to assess the net effect; playing the FH in a DGW, for example, would have been unlikely to result in a huge GW score against others using BB and TC but might nevertheless have protected the manager against what would otherwise have been a significant fallback.
To be continued.