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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Sané dropped to 9.6m now (bit of a surprise) so that's another 0.1m gone. Still, hopefully that may mean a while till the next drop because things should slow down with a 2-week gap before the next GW. Be nice if he can just wait till after FAC5 is played. :wink:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ragamuffin »

No Aguero has pretty much destroyed my season. Fallen from within top 500th > around 1500th in two GW’s. Back to back hattys against Arsenal and Chelsea I don’t think anybody would have predicted that, not even the most optimistic. Do you think the damage for non Aguero owners can be made up? Getting increasingly tougher to make up ground now.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Patrician »

ragamuffin wrote: 12 Feb 2019, 15:44 No Aguero has pretty much destroyed my season. Fallen from within top 500th > around 1500th in two GW’s. Back to back hattys against Arsenal and Chelsea I don’t think anybody would have predicted that, not even the most optimistic. Do you think the damage for non Aguero owners can be made up? Getting increasingly tougher to make up ground now.
Bit extreme, 1,500th (assuming you stay in that ball park or improve) is an exceptionally good season in anyone's book! Did you consider moving for Aguero for the DGW? In 500th, that would have been a solid high volatility move, quoting Dod's playbook. The problem you may now find is that the the next DGWs will have more obvious, and therefore highly picked, TC choices. What is your goal? Win the whole thing? What is the gap?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ragamuffin »

Patrician wrote: 12 Feb 2019, 15:51
ragamuffin wrote: 12 Feb 2019, 15:44 No Aguero has pretty much destroyed my season. Fallen from within top 500th > around 1500th in two GW’s. Back to back hattys against Arsenal and Chelsea I don’t think anybody would have predicted that, not even the most optimistic. Do you think the damage for non Aguero owners can be made up? Getting increasingly tougher to make up ground now.
Bit extreme, 1,500th (assuming you stay in that ball park or improve) is an exceptionally good season in anyone's book! Did you consider moving for Aguero for the DGW? In 500th, that would have been a solid high volatility move, quoting Dod's playbook. The problem you may now find is that the the next DGWs will have more obvious, and therefore highly picked, TC choices. What is your goal? Win the whole thing? What is the gap?
Hey mate. Its good yes but I would like to finish in the top 1k which is my aim at the start of every season. I did consider Aguero but tbh not too much. Was too hooked on Sane and no Mendy supposedly nailing him with most mins. Was too worried Jesus was going to get the Everton game and tbh I actually think Aguero played himself into a start in that match with his hatrick agaisnt Arsenal. On top of that I thought Sane would be the safe play and was trying to play more to preserve rank and stay within the top 500. Could not have gone more wrong.

Dod's blog is fantastic and I have read through it all now. Problem with high volatility is obviously the extreme downside if it goes wrong. I maybe would have gone Aguero had i been say 50k or worse.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Patrician »

I think the key point of Dod's is that if you are simply aiming for a high rank, then safe plays will get you there. If you want to win, then you need a few volatile plays to come off.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ragamuffin »

Patrician wrote: 12 Feb 2019, 16:00 I think the key point of Dod's is that if you are simply aiming for a high rank, then safe plays will get you there. If you want to win, then you need a few volatile plays to come off.
I had written off my chances of winning a few weeks ago. Was at one point almost top 100 but kept slipping so decided to play safe go for top 1k and secure all ML's.

Safe play usually gets you there yeh but for the DGW the safe play was Sane and look what happend...

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Archy »

Full sympathies from me as another non-Aguero owner. I was comfortably ahead in my ML before the DGW now find myself 53 points behind. Also, my overall rank was just recovering from a miserable start to the season, now it’s back outside the top 100k again.

The annoying thing for me is the huge variance/luck involved.

If cup matches/ last minute fixture scheduling had turned out differently, there would have been no DGW for City at all (or even a DGW for Chelsea instead which would have favoured me instead of my rival who already had 3 Man City including Laporte too :roll: ) and non of this would have happened.

As it was, Aguero looked likely (more likely than Sane anyway) to only get one game, so going without seemed a reasonable call to make.

To see him hit a hat-trick when Sane scores 1 point from 2 games was bad enough. The fact Hazard (who I reluctantly took out for Sane and in a non-DGW would have been my captain) got a 15-pointer added to the misery. To then see Aguero get another hat-trick the game after was rubbing a large dose of salt in the already gapng wound.

Overall, I reckon I’d have been something like 80 points better off (relatively) if things had turned out differently and there had been no last-minute decision to give City a DGW that week. Potentially more if they’d decided to give Chelsea one instead. That’s how huge it’s been.

Feels like the overall season is now a write-off. I’m determined to at least try and get that 53 points back in my ML though to salvage something!

* On the flip side to all this, I didn’t have the team structure in place to bring in Aguero easily and MAYBE I would have done had it been easier to do so. I also noted Villa took a hit to bring in BOTH Sane and Aguero. Maybe he is a genius after all....

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

Archy wrote: 21 Feb 2019, 05:15 I also noted Villa took a hit to bring in BOTH Sane and Aguero. Maybe he is a genius after all....
Ville Ronke? He has had a dreadful time of it lately too: No Aguero for him. Even genii are susceptible!

Like you say, many of us were not in a position to get Kun and were hoping the GW25 DGW to include Chelsea and not Man C. It's a big swing for sure. Season defining in fact.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

Geniuses might be susceptible too. Sorry Ville, calling you a supernatural entity from folklore.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

It is what it is. :roll:

Aubameyang getting ill and missing last week when I had wanted to captain him just egged the pudding. It resulted not only in a 0-pointer (no bench left) but also meant that had I got Aguero in GW25 I'd have kept him for last week's hat-trick as well. Archy says 80 points; my calculation is that even as things stand I am 66 points worse off by the one decision to get Sané rather than Aguero in GW25 (which was a close decision even as it stood). That's without factoring in the fact that had Everton not conceded terribly late against Millwall there wouldn't have been a City DGW at all and that it could easily have been a Chelsea DGW instead (would have suited me much better). But it is what it is; I had the possibility to get Aguero in for GW25, seriously considered it and decided against. My decision and my outcome.

Anyway, I am now going to drain the bitter dregs of this cup of sorrows by refusing to get any City players for GW28-30 either and by captaining Aubameyang for GW27 & 28 as planned. But the tides continue to be against me; Lacazette getting a 3-game red in the EL now means PEA starting all the EL games and possibly reduced minutes in the PL; City's late resurgence last night means they go into the home leg against Schalke 3-2 up instead of 1-2 down (meaning more chance that Aguero could be rested in the CL and start in the PL). I have to hope that Kun misses GW28 or GW29 but I doubt it. :(

Ah well. Che sera, sera as Marlowe wrote in Dr. Faustus. Hopefully I am not lining up to be the title character. :wink:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Archy »

Sutter Kane wrote: 21 Feb 2019, 08:52
Archy wrote: 21 Feb 2019, 05:15 I also noted Villa took a hit to bring in BOTH Sane and Aguero. Maybe he is a genius after all....
Ville Ronke? He has had a dreadful time of it lately too: No Aguero for him. Even genii are susceptible!

Like you say, many of us were not in a position to get Kun and were hoping the GW25 DGW to include Chelsea and not Man C. It's a big swing for sure. Season defining in fact.
Ah sorry, I thought I’d seen on his thread that that he had brought Aguero in, must have been mistaken. Maybe I just have it my head now that every transfer he ever makes always turns to gold :lol:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Archy »

Spot on Ruth about the late Everton concession, Chelsea getting zip and Aubameyangs injury too - that was another blow I missed off the list (there were so many it’s easy to lose track!)

Like you, I’m reluctant to join the Man City bandwagon now. In for a penny, in for a pound and all that?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Archy wrote: Spot on Ruth about the late Everton concession, Chelsea getting zip and Aubameyangs injury too - that was another blow I missed off the list (there were so many it’s easy to lose track!).

Like you, I’m reluctant to join the Man City bandwagon now. In for a penny, in for a pound and all that?
Yeah, you have to be I think. The ground doesn't get regained by getting Aguero now so you have to let the whole sad tale play out and hope that there is a twist in the storyline. Those that loaded City - especially those that TC'd Aguero - are really sitting pretty right now and you won't overtake them by copying them.

In all honesty I was settled to this even before last weekend and am only looking at GW27-33 now. Haven't even thought much about 'what might have been' because it is water under the bridge and I am quite fatalistic about it.

Interestingly enough, my planned approach of FH32 is now under some question in my mind because someone whose opinion I respect believes these are the likeliest GW32 DGW teams & fixtures:

Wolves - bur MUN
United - WAT wol
Chelsea - car BHA
Brighton - SOU che
City - ful CAR (assumes City make the FAC SF)
Cardiff - CHE mci
Spurs - liv CPL
Palace - HUD tot
Watford - mun SOU
Soton - bha wat

If that's correct then GW35 doesn't look good for the TC. The best opportunity there would be Aubameyang with CRY wol. So the TC would be better played in GW32 but of course it can't be if you FH that week. I am therefore thinking about building a GW32 team based on those fixtures and using the FH in GW31 but that makes GW33 a big issue; either you must wildcard GW33 (which somewhat compromises GW35) or you must actually remove some GW32 doublers (like Doherty/Shaw/Rashford/Jota) before time in order to cover GW33 in a satisfactory way.

I have 8 doublers for GW32 already based on those fixtures and would only need to bring some City and Chelsea in. But it would be very awkward to do when looked at in detail and, of course, those surmised GW32 fixtures may be wrong. I think I will probably stay as I am and settle that the TC will be Aubameyang in GW35 if those fixtures are what transpire. Nailing myself to Aubameyang has really been the marker of my season in a way so it kind of seems fitting that way. :)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by raoul »

Assuming the above doubles play out as listed, I think that means Newcastle (if Palace get through) would have 2 home games in GW35 (CP, SOU). I know it is Newcastle, but perhaps worth looking at.

I don't know where you got that list from, but was any reasoning given for why the GW33 blanks were moved to GW32 and some GW31 blanks held over? If it pans out, GW32 looks a lot more attractive than I had expected.

And you would still avoid Aguero with those fixtures?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

The assumption that the GW31 blanks go into GW32 and so on is a complete mistake until such time as they are announced. It's a wrong assumption anyway.

As far as I know, a number of factors have been taken into account - Spurs' problems with GW33, the fact that Chelsea have EL still (and therefore may not be able to play an 'extra' DGW) and that Spurs, United, City, Arsenal also still have European commitments as it stands. Some assumptions have also been made, for example that City will beat Swansea and reach the FAC SF. What can never be entirely clear is what TV will have to say about it, though some logical surmises will have been made there also.

Anyway, that's how it was done, by someone that is pretty deep into this stuff. I personally trust that it's a realistic estimation. But I haven't posted it in the DGW thread (and won't) because I don't want to be asked to justify it. Take it or leave it really.

As for a Newcastle TC, you are kidding surely? :lol: I wouldn't even captain a Newcastle player in a normal week.

Incidentally, the fixtures as indicated would mean that Brighton/Cardiff probably get an additional mini-DGW in GW36/7.

Oh, and about Aguero... well, if I were to go with FH31 then I'd have to reconsider that. But I will probably stick with FH32 and therefore I won't; FH31 really best suits those who are already loaded with 2-3 City players. I'll just hope that Kun starts the CC Final this weekend and is benched in GW28 or 29 I think. Depends on Jesus' fitness too but he has scored 4 goals in his last 3 PL starts so you'd imagine he'll be used if fit when City have a compacted schedule. Though GW32 onwards is when it gets really busy for them so you'd have to think there's some doubt about gametime for Kun, Sterling & Co. in the DGW as well.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by raoul »

As I said, I know it is Newcastle...

Regarding moving fixtures, I only assumed GW31 would shift to GW32 because that seemed to be what others on here felt was the norm. Didn't take it as nailed which is part of the reason I am going to FH32 not 31. Lack of info is never helpful in making decisions.

Does your source / confidante have a view on whether any fixture might be announced pre GW31 or is that a total non starter?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

raoul wrote:Regarding moving fixtures, I only assumed GW31 would shift to GW32 because that seemed to be what others on here felt was the norm. Didn't take it as nailed which is part of the reason I am going to FH32 not 31. Lack of info is never helpful in making decisions.

Does your source / confidante have a view on whether any fixture might be announced pre GW31 or is that a total non starter?
It isn't the norm. If you ask Stemania I imagine he'll tell you so.

I can only tell you my view, which is that we are unlikely to get a fixture announcement until after GW31 (after the FAC QFs). The precedent of last season was to wait until all permutations were known and as there will still be around 16 days before the midweek GW32 fixtures have to be played there's no apparent need to finalise things before then. If an announcement is made earlier then all this surmise will be obsolete, so in a sense the only point in putting it together is the notion that we won't get an early announcement at all.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 21 Feb 2019, 15:26
Wolves - bur MUN
United - WAT wol
Chelsea - car BHA
Brighton - SOU che
City - ful CAR (assumes City make the FAC SF)
Cardiff - CHE mci
Spurs - liv CPL
Palace - HUD tot
Watford - mun SOU
Soton - bha wat
Not sure who your source is but this breakdown is very believable. We know Man Utd will have two blanks so it makes sense to move the Manchester derby as late in the season as possible and so have that in DGW35. similarly the Chelsea v Brighton game makes sense in case Chelsea go deep in the EL (it will be interesting to see what happens if Chelsea go out in the next couple of rounds).

Other than the knock-ons from those two moves, the other fixtures are a straight shift from GW21 (I think).

In terms of when the fixtures are announced - I can't see any reason not to announce DGW32 fixtures when the rest of the April fixtures are announced (which I discover is tomorrow!). In fact if this is the correct schedule the Manchester derby and Wolves-Arsenal games could be announced at the same time. It would be nice if fans' need to plan were taken into account for once!

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 21 Feb 2019, 20:59 Not sure who your source is
Image

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

So as predicted on this thread ;)

MNU v WOL confirmed for DGW32 - Tue 2 April
MNU v MCI confirmed for DGW35 - Wed 24 April

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Both on Sky so maybe that's why the early announcement?

I suspect that seeing that's all we got then the rest may wait till GW31 now. Obviously some of them must anyway; if City beat Swansea then City-Cardiff must be 3 April, meaning that City having the brilliant DGW32 of ful CAR looks pretty nailed-on now. The Brighton situation can't be clarified until FAC6 either and that has knock-on effects for Chelsea, Palace & Spurs (who also have a particular issue with GW33 unless White Hart Lane is ready, which is yet another unknown for the FA/PL to deal with).

Anyway, the City-Cardiff game will now be re-scheduled at 16 days' notice and clearly if they are going to do that then other games can be re-arranged with that notice as well.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 22 Feb 2019, 16:30
I suspect that seeing that's all we got then the rest may wait till GW31 now.
The FA announcement includes the sentence "New dates for the outstanding postponed matches will be announced after the FA Cup quarter-final ties on 16-17 March.

There's still two spare TV slots Weds 3rd & Tues 23rd so firm decisions probably haven't been made yet.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:I suspect that seeing that's all we got then the rest may wait till GW31 now.
The FA announcement includes the sentence "New dates for the outstanding postponed matches will be announced after the FA Cup quarter-final ties on 16-17 March."

There's still two spare TV slots Weds 3rd & Tues 23rd so firm decisions probably haven't been made yet.
Well, there you go then. GW31 it is. :) I'm betting that City-Cardiff will be televised on 3/4 but obviously that can only be confirmed by City beating Swansea.
Seems to all make sense.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by raoul »

Ruth, a question for you.

I have Aguero and Rashford. I want one of Auba or Laca. Might even contemplate both. For a max of 2 weeks (I am building for GW 31, I have no FT left this week, and I have 11 starters so don't need to lose Aguero).

Would you? I have money itb to allow Rashford up to Laca, but for Auba it would have to be Aguero (who would then come back in).

Need some solid opinion before 6.45 and I can't work out whether I want to do this or not.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Don't know, all these things depend on your route through and I don't have time to get my head around your team situation. All I would say is that United and City are likely to have good/very good DGW32 fixtures and therefore unless you will FH32 then I'd keep them. If you will FH32 then I'd do Rashford :arrow: Lacazette I think.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by raoul »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 22 Feb 2019, 18:16 Don't know, all these things depend on your route through and I don't have time to get my head around your team situation. All I would say is that United and City are likely to have good/very good DGW32 fixtures and therefore unless you will FH32 then I'd keep them. If you will FH32 then I'd do Rashford :arrow: Lacazette I think.
thanks Ruth. Much appreciated. That is exactly the transfer I had planned (and yes, I am FH32).

I will stick to the plan. Aguero gets a rest.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Ruth_NZ wrote:...by captaining Aubameyang for GW27 & 28 as planned. But the tides continue to be against me; Lacazette getting a 3-game red in the EL now means PEA starting all the EL games and possibly reduced minutes in the PL...
And there it is, benched against Southampton. :( Still, he has come off the bench only twice this season and has scored twice each time - a 15-pointer against Fulham and a 12-pointer against Leicester.

#ClutchingAtStraws

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by huskerdu »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 24 Feb 2019, 13:41
Ruth_NZ wrote:...by captaining Aubameyang for GW27 & 28 as planned. But the tides continue to be against me; Lacazette getting a 3-game red in the EL now means PEA starting all the EL games and possibly reduced minutes in the PL...
And there it is, benched against Southampton. :( Still, he has come off the bench only twice this season and has scored twice each time - a 15-pointer against Fulham and a 12-pointer against Leicester.

#ClutchingAtStraws
Ruth is auba worth hanging onto if you still have him? I was going to bring Aguero back in but kinda nervous as he played 120 minutes today.

Is there a post where you summarize the best plan moving forward for those who still have all their chips? Love your contributions to the forum buddy!

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

I am in the same position. Was all set on getting Aguero, now I won't - I'll stick with Auba and probably make him captain to boot!

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

huskerdu wrote:Ruth is Auba worth hanging onto if you still have him? I was going to bring Aguero back in but kinda nervous as he played 120 minutes today.
I always planned to keep him and captain him this Wednesday and would have done so even if Aguero hadn't played today. With Kun playing 120 and PEA only 25 I'd say that's even more indicated now. But then I thought it better to keep Aubameyang in GW25 and look how that went. :roll:

huskerdu wrote:Is there a post where you summarize the best plan moving forward for those who still have all their chips? Love your contributions to the forum buddy!
Hey, listen, the truth is that there isn't such a thing. Joccki asked me when I thought he should best play his wildcard a couple of days back and it took me 2 hours to look at his team, chips and transfers left and to factor in his preferences before I could make a suggestion for him. So, what I'm saying is that it is dependent on the squad you already have, the transfers available and possibly also your OR/ML situation and/or risk tolerance. I don't think there is any such thing as a generic best plan.

What I would say is that GW32 looks almost certain to offer by far the best opportunity for the TC and I'd prioritise that. That means no FH and no WC in GW32. For most squads it is possible to get to a team that will have 8-10 good players in GW31 through FTs and, by making sure you arrive in GW32 with 2 FTs, to make perhaps 3 transfers for GW32 at the cost of 4 points that delivers a very good GW32 team - not all doublers but maybe 8-9 doublers and 2-3 good SGW players. Losing Salah in GW32 would be an essential component of that plan, of course. But then you could FH33, WC34 and BB35 for example (and bring Salah back if you want him back).

There are other variations around this theme but that's the kind of route I'd be exploring first.

Incidentally... in case it isn't clear to everyone, if City beat Swansea in the next round of the FAC they will be 95% certain to have ful CAR as a DGW in GW32. The only thing that could prevent that is the very unlikely event of Schalke overturning a 2-3 deficit an the Etihad on 12th March and even that would only make a different outcome possible; City would likely still get that DGW32 anyway. So for planning purposes I think you can work on that basis. I am anyway.

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