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Ruth_NZ
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Post by Ruth_NZ »

Edit: This thread started life as the "R_NZ No Aguero Experiment" and the first pages are an account of that. Times have moved on and we are now approaching the 17/18 season. So I have re-named the thread accordingly. I intend to post bits of research that are of interest to me (as I have done before) and will probably keep an account of my team too, as much for my own interest as anything. As has always been the case, any comments and/or contributions are most welcome. :)

In GW10 I removed Aguero from my team. A somewhat surprising action considering that he has been an ever-present for me when fit for the last 2 seasons.

So, why did I do it? Well, pretty simple. It had nothing much to do with Aguero. It had a lot to do with Guardiola. He has a history of rotating players unexpectedly. He also has a history of mucking around with the position and playing style of strikers and I thought I saw signs of that happening with Aguero. I won't re-hash the whole thing but essentially what it came down to was that I didn't feel comfortable captaining Aguero. He can't deliver value for 13m unless used regularly as a captain, I think most experienced FPL managers would accept that.

The week I picked looked good on paper but was atrocious in practise. I switched Aguero for Zlatan who had a very good fixture. He blanked. Not for want of trying - on MOTD the comment was "on another day he could have scored 4". And I think he broke the PL record for goal attempts by one player in one game. But that's all circumstantial. The bald fact is that he blanked.

Meanwhile Aguero scored twice plus an assist for 16 points. So my FT cost me -14. But it was worse, I captained Zlatan instead of Sanchez. Sanchez scored 13 so that was another -11. Total -25 from one FT. That takes some doing. :lol:

Anyway, I had planned to reverse course if it was indicated but I wasn't willing to revert and lock in a 25-point handicap. So I have decided to go without Aguero until after Xmas. Actually more than that... I plan to go without any City whatsoever. The resting of Sterling today (5/11) after a fantastic performance against Barcelona is an example of what I believe can be expected. So I'm going to avoid them altogether.

In case it might interest anyone, I plan to keep a record of how this goes here. I am a decently good FPL manager so maybe some others will find the experiment to be informative in some way. Personally I believe it is not without some hope, it really depends on what Aguero does (and how my alternative captains do) in the weeks when he is widely captained. The money saved will help me to have better players elsewhere (or more expensive ones anyhow). That should pay off as long as I can keep up in terms of captaincy. We'll see. It should be an interesting ride.

I will post details of transfers made and will also run a parallel (virtual) team to simulate what I would be doing if I hadn't shed Aguero. That should enable a points comparison to be made week by week from GW10-20 (11 weeks). After that we'll see.

So...

GW10: Aguero to Zlatan; -25 points; running total -25
GW11: Valencia to Alonso, Walcott to Coutinho. O.8 banked. Zlatan (c) again.

Had I kept Aguero I would have done Valencia to Francis, Walcott to Coutinho and would have had 0.6m banked. So the comparison for GW11 will be Aguero (c) vs Zlatan (c) and Francis vs Alonso. The same player comparison will be valid for GW12 (though the captaincy comparison may differ) as I have already switched Payet for Hazard and would have done that with the Aguero team too, it had been in my plans for a couple of weeks. That's why I would have downgraded Valencia to Francis, in my opinion with Aguero in your team and so many premium attackers performing well you need a rotation of 5 cheap defenders unless you are going to switch to 4-4-2. The 1.0m saved on Valencia to Francis would have helped to fund Walcott to Coutinho and Payet to Hazard.

I will update this from time to time. One request - by all means comment and discuss, that's what this thread is for. But please try to stay on topic if possible. There is no point in telling me I am an idiot for going without Aguero. The purpose of this thread is to provide an example of what happens when you do, not to argue about whether you should.
Last edited by Ruth_NZ on 20 Oct 2021, 19:43, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by The Dazzler »

Ruth_NZ wrote: I will update this from time to time. One request - by all means comment and discuss, that's what this thread is for. But please try to stay on topic if possible. There is no point in telling me I am an idiot for going without Aguero. The purpose of this thread is to provide an example of what happens when you do, not to argue about whether you should.
You're going to provide a weekly breakdown of how an Aguero less team does against an Aguero team and people aren't supposed to argue whether you should or shouldn't have Aguero?
The first rule of the No Aguero Experiment is, you don't talk about the No Aguero Experiment.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

The Dazzler wrote:You're going to provide a weekly breakdown of how an Aguero less team does against an Aguero team and people aren't supposed to argue whether you should or shouldn't have Aguero?
The first rule of the No Aguero Experiment is, you don't talk about the No Aguero Experiment.
Yeah I see what you mean. I was just hoping to get beyond the name-calling and "who's right, who's wrong" stuff is all. I thought it might be an interesting study, personally I have never seen a comparison done over a longer period.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by baganboy »

The removing of Aguero - the costliest and expected highest-pointscoring striker and instead spreading the money across the team, is indeed a decent experiment to attempt, to give a perspective on how an alternate strategy might work.

The below though does not:
Ruth_NZ wrote: Anyway, I had planned to reverse course if it was indicated but I wasn't willing to revert and lock in a 25-point handicap. So I have decided to go without Aguero until after Xmas. Actually more than that... I plan to go without any City whatsoever. The resting of Sterling today (5/11) after a fantastic performance against Barcelona is an example of what I believe can be expected. So I'm going to avoid them altogether.
This decisively would feel like a ManUnited fanboy's 'look-what-I-can-do-without-touching-that-bunch' posturing. (Not saying that you are).
I personally believe this would add to very little value to any discussion.

But of course, your prerogative to run your table the way you want. Cheers.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Beerfuelledman »

The expected return today of Sir Harold of Kane provides another striking option for a no Aguero team.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Stemania »

I'll be quite interested in following this one - I think the difficulty will be in actually keeping the motivation to actually map out precisely what "would" have happened in the equivalent Aguero team - in addition the difference in 'optimal' spreads of both setups may turn out to be stark so they could diverge quite a bit very quickly. Perhaps explicitly writing out the list of 15 players every week (with TV changes) may even be necessary.

For example, if I were wildcarding a non-Aguero team with my current TV I would probably go for an (unusual for me) 352,something like:

Cheap defence made mainly of 5m guys/whatever cash is left.
Sanchez, KDB, Hazard, Firmino, Coutinho
Costa, Austin, (4.x)m


which is I would guess quite far from what a non-Aguero team will generally look like having just sold him.

I'll be regularly visiting the thread for sure. :D

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Finisher1 »

Stemania wrote: I'll be regularly visiting the thread for sure. :D
Definitely. I'm not really interested in most RMT threads, but I might participate in this thread in addition to STC and Ville threads.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW11 Final Summary

Transfers and captaincy were detailed above. Zlatan (c) outscored Aguero (c) by 6 points. So that's +12. Alonso outscored Francis by 11 points. That makes +23 for this week. So...

GW10: Zlatan vs Aguero -14 points; Zlatan (c) vs Sanchez (c) -11 points; Total -25 points; Running Total -25 points
GW11: Zlatan (c) vs Aguero (c) +12 points; Alonso vs Francis +11 points; Total +23 points; Running Total -2 points

Unfortunately for me, Zlatan got his 5th yellow and misses the next game. He will have to be replaced, probably by Sir Harry of Kane, 2 weeks earlier than I hoped. I did plan to bring Kane in anyhow but it's clearly an extra transfer which I will count as a hit. So a -4 will be factored into the GW12 comparison. Costa would be the other obvious choice but one yellow and I am back in the same position. I am happy to run with just Hazard and Alonso for now. If I bring Costa in later (after suspension) it will more likely be for Lukaku.
Stemania wrote:I'll be quite interested in following this one - I think the difficulty will be in actually keeping the motivation to actually map out precisely what "would" have happened in the equivalent Aguero team. Perhaps explicitly writing out the list of 15 players every week (with TV changes) may even be necessary.
I quite like doing a study like this so I'll expect to follow it through. The good thing is that I only have to consult myself on what I would have done. :)

For the sake of a useful comparison I will assume that Aguero would have been my captain in weeks when he is in the top 3 of the FFS poll. That's not exact but it will prevent any gerrymandering on my part. And when he's outside the top 3 I will usually know who I would have chosen, it will likely be the same as the captain in my actual team.

I don't think the full list of 15 needs posting, it would be so long. Just to keep a note of what diverges should be enough. For example, Payet to Hazard (which I already did) would have been done whether I had Aguero or not. So that can be ignored for the comparison. But I will link my team in case anyone wants to take a look.

The TV point is a good one. So far I have lost 0.2 on Zlatan (a painful 0.2 because that's SV gone) and gained 0.1 on Alonso. That's the status and I will update it from time to time.

Thanks for your interest. Maybe you'll be happy to see me embracing the RMT section at last. :wink:

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

As I posted on the Aguero thread in the main forum, I'm also following with interest - think I may well go without Aguero from GW14 - prefer Costa and Kane initially to Aguero & Rashford (or any alternative at that price). Will probably rotate 2 from Costa, Kane, Ibra and Lukaku for the next 10 weeks and see how I go - having lost 300k in the last 4 weeks I haven't much to lose.

Aguero has scored well over the past 2 weeks but your team has matched him (making the GW10 'told you so's' look somewhat premature!). I'm suspecting that ultimately the Kunless strategy will score higher.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Aldershot Rejects wrote:As I posted on the Aguero thread in the main forum, I'm also following with interest - think I may well go without Aguero from GW14 - prefer Costa and Kane initially to Aguero & Rashford (or any alternative at that price). Will probably rotate 2 from Costa, Kane, Ibra and Lukaku for the next 10 weeks and see how I go - having lost 300k in the last 4 weeks I haven't much to lose.

Aguero has scored well over the past 2 weeks but your team has matched him (making the GW10 'told you so's' look somewhat premature!). I'm suspecting that ultimately the Kunless strategy will score higher.
I don't know which will score best to be honest. I am hopeful but not confident.

One thing I have been surprised by is how big the swings are. -25 one week, +23 the next? That's crazy really. Triggerlips talks about "minimising variance" in the first part of the season - he recently bought Coutinho for that reason - and I can see why. It's a much safer strategy. This is much more volatile in its possibilities.

The other thing that becomes crystal clear is that it all revolves around captaincy. I don't have the slightest doubt that I can get better value from 13m than to buy Aguero. But can I get equal value from my captains without him? That's the core question and it's one of the reasons I am doing this experiment now, I think there is a fair chance of doing so between now and GW20.

The other element that stands against this route is TV. You are almost guaranteed to be going against the tide. For example, "sell Sanchez" is the flavour of the month over at FFS. There are articles, tweets and hot topics proposing that idea. I will be holding him. There's absolutely no reason not to with mun BOU whm STO as his next 4 games and he is still starting games in a central role. But I expect to take a price drop or two. If you want to maximise TV you need to follow the herd.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

baganboy wrote:The removing of Aguero - the costliest and expected highest-pointscoring striker and instead spreading the money across the team, is indeed a decent experiment to attempt, to give a perspective on how an alternate strategy might work. The below though does not:
Ruth_NZ wrote: Anyway, I had planned to reverse course if it was indicated but I wasn't willing to revert and lock in a 25-point handicap. So I have decided to go without Aguero until after Xmas. Actually more than that... I plan to go without any City whatsoever. The resting of Sterling today (5/11) after a fantastic performance against Barcelona is an example of what I believe can be expected. So I'm going to avoid them altogether.
This decisively would feel like a ManUnited fanboy's 'look-what-I-can-do-without-touching-that-bunch' posturing. (Not saying that you are).
I personally believe this would add to very little value to any discussion.
It won't affect this comparison because I wouldn't have taken a City midfielder either way. I did some research a couple of months ago about Guardiola and he really is wedded to the idea of rotation. At Bayern even players like Müller, Robben and Lewandowski were benched intermittently. Guardiola in November 2015: "for harmony, fitness and mind, rotation is the best solution. I like it when all of the players are getting a game." This was after 97 games where he hadn't named the same team twice in succession.

"Sometimes you were playing, sometimes you were on the bench and sometimes you were just left at home. That was a new situation for all of us. Personally, I need to be playing games." That was Franck Ribery in 2014. I immediately thought of that when Sterling was left out last weekend.

Guardiola did the same at Barça too. In 2011-12 he picked 25 different lineups in the first 25 games of the season, benching players like Puyol, Piqué, Villa, Fabregas and even Messi. "There’s a pressure from the press and the fans of having to pick certain players. Every time I left Messi on the bench, for example, there was a fuss". That was Guardiola looking back on his time at Barça in 2014.

That is indeed part of the rationale for going without Aguero. All I need is one cameo appearance when he is widely captained and the odds skew in my favour. Will that happen? Who knows? But I'm kind of relieved not to have to worry about it.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Notned »

It's an interesting case study, and one I'll be following. You definitely have the conviction to stick to your guns and follow things through, Ruth!

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Finisher1 »

I agree I wouldn't touch any City player apart from Aguero at the moment. KDB is the only one who I think is pretty much nailed and will score decently, but I would never captain him because Aguero is always a superior captain pick. Hence KDB is just a very expensive midfielder that I would never captain. No thanks.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
Aldershot Rejects wrote:As I posted on the Aguero thread in the main forum, I'm also following with interest - think I may well go without Aguero from GW14 - prefer Costa and Kane initially to Aguero & Rashford (or any alternative at that price). Will probably rotate 2 from Costa, Kane, Ibra and Lukaku for the next 10 weeks and see how I go - having lost 300k in the last 4 weeks I haven't much to lose.

Aguero has scored well over the past 2 weeks but your team has matched him (making the GW10 'told you so's' look somewhat premature!). I'm suspecting that ultimately the Kunless strategy will score higher.
I don't know which will score best to be honest. I am hopeful but not confident.

One thing I have been surprised by is how big the swings are. -25 one week, +23 the next? That's crazy really. Triggerlips talks about "minimising variance" in the first part of the season - he recently bought Coutinho for that reason - and I can see why. It's a much safer strategy. This is much more volatile in its possibilities.

The other thing that becomes crystal clear is that it all revolves around captaincy. I don't have the slightest doubt that I can get better value from 13m than to buy Aguero. But can I get equal value from my captains without him? That's the core question and it's one of the reasons I am doing this experiment now, I think there is a fair chance of doing so between now and GW20.

The other element that stands against this route is TV. You are almost guaranteed to be going against the tide. For example, "sell Sanchez" is the flavour of the month over at FFS. There are articles, tweets and hot topics proposing that idea. I will be holding him. There's absolutely no reason not to with mun BOU whm STO as his next 4 games and he is still starting games in a central role. But I expect to take a price drop or two. If you want to maximise TV you need to follow the herd.
The captaincy point is a good one. Mind you I've been going with Aguero every week and I think I'm ready to take my chances with a more fluid approach. With the Kane/Costa combo you get SWA WBA HUL BUR BOU and STK as opponents from GW 14-19 - I'd be confident that there is more points there than with Aguero's fixtures over that period.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Finisher1 »

I hope Ruth will be honest about his presumed "with Aguero" -team. You know, it would be easy to say " in my Aguero team I would have had this and this player who blanked five gameweeks in a row" to make it look better without Aguero :wink:

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by MPTree »

I'll be following this with interest. I don't know of anyone who's ditched Aguero and documented scores week by week to see how they compare. I suppose it really all comes down to finding solid captaincy alternatives each week. This experiment (if that's what it is?) could prove to be a good and valuable resource.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Aldershot Rejects wrote:The captaincy point is a good one. Mind you I've been going with Aguero every week and I think I'm ready to take my chances with a more fluid approach. With the Kane/Costa combo you get SWA WBA HUL BUR BOU and STK as opponents from GW 14-19 - I'd be confident that there is more points there than with Aguero's fixtures over that period.
That's kind of the idea. Throw Sanchez into the mix for GW13 (15/18/19/20 also possible) and it looks OK. Only GW12 to worry about but will Aguero start after international duty? I'll happily take my chances with Lukaku (SWA) probably. Hazard (mid) is another possibility.
Finisher1 wrote:I hope Ruth will be honest about his presumed "with Aguero" -team. You know, it would be easy to say " in my Aguero team I would have had this and this player who blanked five gameweeks in a row" to make it look better without Aguero :wink:
You old cynic. :wink:

Actually it is an experiment and I am interested to learn from it so I want it to be fairly neutral. Of course it will depend on my decisions so it won't be anything other than an example. But I will try to post details of actual transfers and what I would have done had I kept Aguero before deadline each week so it will be clear in advance what is what.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Hmmm...

Things are swinging against the non-Aguero route. City beating Barça may well make the Celtic CL game non-critical as long as they get a point in Gladbach. That reduces the chance of Aguero being rotated in December. Sanchez being injured (if it's serious) reduces the cash pressure on other teams and also takes away one of the key players (and captain options) for a non-Aguero team.

Whether it's that serious for Sanchez, who knows? The BBC is non-commital: "Alexis 'has picked up a 'low grade muscle injury' on international duty with Chile. Sanchez, 27, will miss Chile's World Cup qualifier in Colombia on Thursday but the Chilean team's medical staff say the former Barcelona player could return for the home game against Uruguay next Tuesday. 'He will remain in Santiago, under treatment and in evaluation for the meeting against Uruguay', said a statement."

I was toying with keeping Zlatan and playing Allen (my 5th mid) anyway, Allen has a good fixture. If Sanchez is injured for any length of time that is certainly what I will do and I will replace Alexis instead. But in that case it would be something I'd have had to do, Aguero or not. Fortunately I bought at 10.9 so can ride a price drop without loss.

My midfield is currently Alexis, Coutinho, Hazard, Bolasie, (Allen). If I have to replace Sanchez I may well go for Chadli and then upgrade Bolasie to an Arsenal midfielder of my choice (Walcott or Özil perhaps) the week after. We'll see.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by math! »

It's nice to see someone else who has Bolasie, even though you're looking to move him. The main reason I've continued holding him is due to his chemistry/bromance with Lukaku and he also seems to have become more determined to affect the scoreline.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

math! wrote:It's nice to see someone else who has Bolasie, even though you're looking to move him. The main reason I've continued holding him is due to his chemistry/bromance with Lukaku and he also seems to have become more determined to affect the scoreline.


Had him since GW1. Thing is, after the Swansea game I don't want the double with Lukaku, sot MUN wat ARS LIV lei the next 6 games. At least one needs to go I think, that's not a great run of games. I might well lose both.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by The Username »

Im very interested in this mate, one of the things i often ponder is how irrelevant Aguero becomes, if everyone has him his points become irrelevant in the big scheme of things. Captaincy becomes the issue and that can really take the skill/luck out of the game by lazily picking him every week. If there is a different way or evidence at least it can be done - surely that favors more skilled and experienced managers over the masses?

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Sutter Kane »

Well it does take some skill out captaining Kun most weeks but crap managers still think they can be clever and gain a march by doing something else. It backfires and they delete their team. His points become irrelevant for owners but his 5 goal haul is very relevant for those who have removed him.

As it happens, I'm not averse to removing Aguero if I can better his captaincy advantage elsewhere. I've done it plenty of times before with Suarez, RVP, Henry and actually gained overall. I have to point out though, it's definitely not a long term thing, except in the most extreme of circumstances.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Sutter Kane »

Haha just read this back; I wasn't actually aiming this at the OP although he might take it that way! (I was actually aiming it at a few guys in my ML; in previous years they've given up after a third of a season as Kun captain has single-handedly destroyed them) The OP, from previous posts too, sounds like he can put together a squad to rival that captain advantage so good luck with that.
I think this season has been a season of the premiums so far; with that being the case, it probably makes Aguero worse value. Therefore I can see plausible merit in it; I have no idea about Guardiola's affect on Aguero yet, better or worse. I still say though (on a new day...) it's definitely not a long term thing; there are always periods of weeks where he is simply an untouchable captain. Finding those weeks however...

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Sutter Kane wrote:I wasn't actually aiming this at the OP although he might take it that way!
I think this season has been a season of the premiums so far; with that being the case, it probably makes Aguero worse value. Therefore I can see plausible merit in it; I have no idea about Guardiola's affect on Aguero yet, better or worse. I still say though (on a new day...) it's definitely not a long term thing; there are always periods of weeks where he is simply an untouchable captain.
It's OK, I didn't take it that way. :)

I think you have to ask yourself why Aguero only has 34% of the FFS poll for captain with Lukaku and Hazard getting plenty of support. Palace (a) is a great fixture yet many Aguero owners won't captain him. Why? Are they worried about rotation after the international break and before the Gladbach game? Some other reason?

I fear that under Guardiola there will be rotation at City unlike what we are used to. I fear that Aguero (and others) may be inexplicably benched, arguably we have already seen that. I wouldn't be surprised to see Aguero pushed into a deeper role behind Iheanacho on occasion. Do I know that will happen? No. But I fear it enough to be dubious about captaining Aguero. And if I'm not going to captain him then he can't offer value in my squad.

I have always had a general principle that I will only have guaranteed starters in my squad, even on the bench. Essentially I am just continuing to follow that principle. The only question is whether I am right about the selection/gametime/position risk. Maybe Guardiola will take a different approach at City to what he did at Barcelona and Bayern. We'll just have to wait and see.

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by TheoRiginal »

It looks like Argentina are copying your experiment, Ruth...

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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Well, Alexis seems OK, played 80 minutes, no apparent ill-effects, scored twice. May get rested this weekend but that doesn't bother me as long as there's nothing long term, I have bench defenders with good fixtures. So he stays.

I am keeping Zlatan too, Allen is my 5th midfielder and he can stand in this week, that's what he's there for. So, with Payet :arrow: Hazard already done I'm standing pat, no hits. It's just a question of who to captain, I'll probably go for Lukaku.

Payet :arrow: Hazard would have been impossible with my Aguero team, Payet's late (unexpected) drop to 9.3m would have scuppered it. I would have done it anyhow but would have taken a hit for Allen :arrow: Kante in order to fund it. I want my 5th mid to be playable (Kante is) and to.have a decent Xmas timetable (Chelsea do). Kante does not play as a standard DM in Conte's 3-4-3, it's more fluid than that. Both he and Matic are probably better options than many imagine and I have had Kante in my mind for a few weeks. Anyway, that exactly equalises the funds both sides, the 1.7m saved on Aguero :arrow: Zlatan has been spent on Alonso rather than Francis (1.4m) and Allen rather than Kante (0.3m). So in my 'actual' squad I will have Zlatan, Alonso & Allen against Aguero, Francis & Kante had I kept Kun. This will make tracking the finances relatively easy.

The comparison for GW12 will therefore be:

Non-Aguero team: Alonso, Allen and Lukaku (c); 3-5-2 this week
Aguero team: Aguero, Francis and Aguero (c) -4; 3-4-3

If I change my mind and captain Hazard instead of Lukaku I will correct the above. It looks like a probable gain for the Aguero team but who knows?

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW12 Final Summary

Transfers and captaincy were detailed above. Lukaku (c) equalled Aguero, no difference there. Alonso equalled Francis, no difference there either. Aguero outscored Allen by 1 point and the notional Aguero team took a hit to get Hazard (not necessary with the non-Aguero team because of the remaining budget after Aguero's sale). So that's +3 for the non-Aguero team, neither here nor there really.

GW10: Zlatan vs Aguero -14 points; Zlatan (c) vs Sanchez (c) -11 points; Total -25 points; Running Total -25 points
GW11: Zlatan (c) vs Aguero (c) +12 points; Alonso vs Francis +11 points; Total +23 points; Running Total -2 points
GW12: Lukaku (c) vs Aguero (c) equal; Alonso vs Francis equal; Aguero v Allen - 1 point; necessary hit +4 points; Total +3 points; Running Total +1 points

For this week I have already made my transfer and it doesn't affect the comparison, would have been the same either way. However I may take a hit for my actual (non-Aguero) team to avoid losing value on Allen. If so I will count that as a -4. But it will put some budget in play for the non-Aguero team if I do it.

Just as a summary, here is the current status of both teams:

Actual: Foster, Pickford; Alonso, Koné, Evans, Mee, Pieters; Bolasie, Firmino, Coutinho, Hazard, Allen; Zlatan, Lukaku, Bony; 2.6m banked
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Francis, Koné, Evans, Mee, Pieters; Bolasie, Firmino, Coutinho, Hazard, Kante; Aguero, Lukaku, Bony; 2.6m banked

The banked money will enable Lukaku :arrow: Kane in GW14 for both teams.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

I have taken a hit with my real team to get Sigurdsson in for Allen. That will necessitate another hit next week but I wanted to take the full profit on Allen and I also want a cheaper 5th midfielder (which I will get when downgrading Bolasie next week). Basically it's a bit of surgery I am doing now to prepare for the Xmas/New Year period.

I will also take a hit for Bolasie :arrow: Siggy with the notional Aguero team providing that won't price me out of Lukaku :arrow: Kane next week. It's just a question of whether Kane rises again this week, I suspect that ahead of Chelsea he won't (he's +22% now and hardly rising) but who knows?

As it stands I will count a -4 against my actual team for this comparison unless I do the Bolasie/Siggy move with the notional Aguero team. Won't know that till Saturday so I'll post a final GW13 update then.

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Billy Bongo
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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Billy Bongo »

Interesting stuff

Aguero is certainly not quite firing

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ No Aguero Experiment

Post by Ruth_NZ »

OK, a final update before GW13. Looks clear that Kane won't rise before deadline so Bolasie :arrow: Siggy will be done with the notional team. That will mean that both teams have taken 1 hit.

The current status of both teams going into GW13 will therefore be:

Actual: Foster, Pickford; Alonso, Koné, Evans, Mee, Pieters; Bolasie, Firmino, Coutinho, Sigurdsson, Hazard; Zlatan, Lukaku, Bony; 0.5m banked
Notional: Foster, Pickford; Francis, Koné, Evans, Mee, Pieters; Firmino, Coutinho, Sigurdsson, Hazard, Kante; Aguero, Lukaku, Bony; 1.4m banked

The banked money will enable Lukaku :arrow: Kane in GW14 for the Aguero team. For my actual team I will need to take a hit to downgrade Bolasie at the same time.

I will be captaining Zlatan with my actual team so the GW13 comparison will be:

Actual: Zlatan(c), Alonso vs Notional: Aguero(c), Mee. Given the choice I would marginally prefer Burnley v City to Bournemouth @ Arsenal, thus Mee plays for the notional team and Francis is benched.

I'll post a GW13 summary after the weekend. After that there may be little point in continuing with this as many managers are looking at losing Aguero anyway, at least temporarily. Personally I doubt Aguero will return to my team this season unless he has a good DGW or something. Not till around GW31/32 anyway.

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