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Let's catch up with Ville

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The Dazzler
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Let's catch up with Ville

Post by The Dazzler »

CURRENT TEAM ID (2019/20):
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/1481271/history
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Last year, in the FPL genius thread, we did a week by week analysis of the moves of Ville Ronka http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/22442/history/ who is ranked the top FPL manager according to the FFS HOF.

Some people found that interesting so I thought it might be good to do it again. I think what I might like to do would be to ask some top FPL managers to do some 'guest spots' and take a week where they analyse Villes week and perhaps try and predict his future moves and plans. So mangers like SpiderM4tt, Trigger, Silky, Hancockjr, etc. can expect some pms from me!
Of course all others are welcome to join any discussion arisng from this.
I would stress however that I'm not looking for this thread to rehash luck vs skill debates. It's simply an analysis of FPLs top ranked player.

Ville is a very unorthodox manager and I admit I was singularly unsuccessful in predicting his moves last year! Hopefully we'll have more success this year in trying to understand his thought process.
As we're already 8 weeks into the season, I'll start off by analysing Villes progress thus far and hopefully others will take up the baton after that.

What did we learn from Ville last year?
We saw that he was patient and liked saving transfers and often holding them for multiple weeks before using them. He took hits but not excessively.
He picked 'conservative' captaincy choices at the top of captaincy polls. Whether that was from looking at captaincy polls or just from his own analysis, we don't know.
He concentrated on the spine of his team. He often left injured cheaper players sit on the bench, sometimes more than one player, rather than replacing them. He concentrated on the core, first choice players.
He doesn't play money leagues. I've touched on this point before and I shall revisit it in another theory post but sometimes we will play differently, sub optimally, due to cash league considerations. Ville plays pure.
As far as we're aware, Ville doesn't engage in online discussion. I believe that he possibly doesn't read discussions on forums at all, he merely uses the information on FFS and FPL statistics which he interprets himself, without the influence of groupthink.
What leads me to this idea, is that he is so difficult to predict. He makes solid moves obviously but they rarely seem to be the prevailing forum thoughts.
Last year, he liked to have base price players on his bench. He put his money on the pitch.
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GW1 and Ville started off spending £99m, keeping money back for minor upgrades if necessary. He has set up in a 3-4-3 formation which historically has been the optimum formation.

In goals he started with with low cost keepers of Myhill and Hennessy for a total cost of £8.5m.
Hennessy was thought by the majority of managers to be 1st choice and so he was an obvious choice. Unfortunately Pardew didn't agree and only came around to our way of thinking once we'd all changed Hennessy to McCarthy :)
Myhill is the 1st choice WBA keeper in the absence of the injured Foster and the Pulis effect was an obvious draw here.

In defence, Ville went with 2 x bigs (Azpil + Koscielny), 2 x smalls (Coates + Huth) and 1 x base (Targett) for a total spend of £25m.
He has 2 big defenders from top 4 sides which presumably he intends to play the majority of the time with his 3rd defender coming from a rotation of the 2 smalls and 1 base price.
He went for the cheapest of last years predominant and settled Chelsea defence and the most expensive of the Arsenal defence. Of the rotation trio, Coates comes from (what we thought) a decent defence and Huth carries some goal threat. Targett was the best of the base price defenders and his place looked secure until the return of Bertrand, which was some weeks away.

In midfield, Ville went with 1 x big (Hazard), 3 x mid priced (Mane + Walcott + Henderson) and 1 x base price (Fletcher) for a total spend of £40m.
Hazard was obvious. Ever present last year, the top point scorer and a good captaincy option. Mane is an exposive option and Henderson was an attractively priced choice considering he would be expected to take most set pieces in the absence of Gerrard.
Walcott is the interesting one here. Pre season I didn't consider Walcott due to my belief he was the 2nd choice in all his preferred positions. Behind Giroud as striker, behind Ox at right mid and behind Ozil in the hole. Wenger seemed to concur with my opinion. What was amazing to me was how many top managers went with Walcott. So many in fact, it makes me think maybe I may have made a mistake.
Whilst in hindsight, I was 'correct', perhaps Walcotts potential explosiveness was worth the risk? We now see him looking 1st choice as striker. Perhaps, like Pardew and Hennessy, FPL managers knew better than Wenger? :)

Up front, Ville went with 1 x big (Rooney), 1 x mid price (Benteke) and 1 x cheaper (Sakho) for a total spend of £25.5m
We all believed Rooney was a good option due to Van Gaal stating he would be 1st choice striker and he looked a good captaincy option. Benteke is a proven FPL option and was a captaincy option in the tricky GW2. Sakho was a very popular choice due to his attractive pricing.

So what do we learn from Villes initial team?
He went almost exclusively with proven FPL performers, with no unknown newcomers like Lens/Payet/Cabaye/Ayew/Depay/Gomez, etc. And interestingly no players from promoted teams.
He went for 2 x Chelsea, 2 x Arsenal, 2 x Pool, 2 x Southhampton, 2 x WBA and 1 each from Leicester, Sunderland, WH, Palace and Man United. He didn't triple up on any team and he didn't buy any Man City, who preseason were not heavily fancied.
He captained Hazard and vice captained Rooney, as many top managers did.
He took just one gamble in Walcott and although that didn't come off, this all shows that Ville is a fan of a conservative opening team.

In GW1 Ville scored 29 points and was 1.9m in the world.
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In GW2, in spite of scoring poorly the previous week and Walcott not starting, Ville decided to roll his transfer. He loves having 2 transfers!

He lost Henderson to an injury and Walcott didn't even come on.
His decision to have Benteke in his original lineup in order to have a viable captain this week paid off as he returned 9 x 2 = 18 points. He vice captained Rooney.
Myhill was his other standout scorer, snagging the 3 bonus in a 10 point haul.
Clearly Ville hadn't intended wildcarding for GW3, as he had rolled his transfer but the weak performance of his team and the Henderson and Walcott issues forced his hand.
Wildcard activated.
He scored 43 points and rose very slightly to 1.688m. His team value was £100m at GW kickoff.
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In his GW3 wildcard Ville absolutely cleaned house. All 15 original choices were discarded.
He did what I consider to be an unusual thing, particularly considering how he played last year. He bought an attacking 8 of all first choice players, with Callum Wilson his cheapest.
He was impressed by the Man City/United start and went with 3 City (Kolarov/Yaya/Aguero) and 2 United new boys (Darmian/Depay). Although Bournemouth lost both of their opening games 1-0, he was impressed enough to get Wilson/Francis. He switched Palace keepers to McCarthy and also got Ward, which seemed strange to have a potential Palace defensive double. He got Alexis, the inevitable Mahrez and also picked up the impressive Payet.
Gomis + Richards + Butland rounded out the all new team.

3 x City, 2 x Utd, 2 x Bournemouth, 2 x Palace, 1 x Leicester, 1 x Stoke, 1 x Swansea, 1 x Villa, 1 x Arsenal, 1 x WH.
Unfortunately in the first instalment of Villes Who Do I Bench? (WDIB?) dilemma that he has created for himself, Wilsons hattrick 17 points went unclaimed, 1st on his bench. He also had Francis' 6 points, 3rd on the bench.
He captained Aguero, vice captained Sanchez.
He scored a very decent 60 points and rose to 781k. His team value was £100.7m.
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In GW4 Ville decided that Depay wasn't all that after all and he replaced him with a popular choice this week in Coutinho.
Coutinho disappointed Ville and got himself sent off for a -2 score.
In this weeks WDIB?, he decided to bench Payet at Pool. He can consider himself somewhat lucky that Payet only scored 3 pts in a 3-0 win for WH.
Kolarov, Gomis and Wilson all delivered.
He captained Aguero, vice captained Sanchez.
Overall Ville scored a disappointing 23 pts and fell back to 1.01m. His team value was £101.6m.
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In GW5 Coutinho felt the wrath of Ville and was replaced by Ayew.
There was some discussion on the forums about Ayews output being unsustainable due to his deep positioning and lack of set pieces but he was due a double rise so an understandable transfer. The doubling up of Swansea players with Ayew + Gomis might be questionable? I wildcarded this week and initially bought both Gomis + Ayew for their double rises, which then didn't occur due to an FPL malfunction on the Friday before the deadline. I dumped both Gomis + Ayew out of my final wildcard as I didn't trust them.
Ward was injured and didn't play this week. This weeks WDIB? winner was Wilson at Norwich who scored 2 points but he remained on the bench.
He captained Aguero, vice captained Sanchez.
Ville scored a good 55 points with Payet, Mahrez and Kolarov all delivering and Ville rose to 578k. His team value was £102.4m.
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In Gw6 Ville rolled his transfer, despite Ward sitting injured on his bench.
We've seen this before from Ville. He is happy to have non playing players for extended periods in order to focus on more important transfers or to roll transfers over. Sometimes more than one player. Concentrate on the spine.
WDIB? this week was Payet who was an used 5pts scorer at Man City.
He captained Aguero, vice captained Yaya.
Mahrez, Wilson, Butland, Francis and Aguero (c) all contributed to a decent 54 points and Ville rose to 336k. His team value was £103.3m.
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In GW7 he dumped Gomis and got on board the Martial express at just £8m.
WDIB? was Ayew was an unused sub who scored 2 pts. McCarthy loses his place for Palace this week.
Wilson got injured early and went off early. Yaya joined him, limping off after 55 mins. With Ward, he now had 3 on the casualty list.
He captained Aguero, vice captained Sanchez.
Another decent score of 54 points and Ville rose again to 265k. His team value was £103.8.
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In GW8 he had 2 transfers and 3 injuries. Would he use both? He would not.
Wilson -> Vardy (to leave him £0.0m in the bank) who immediately delivered 9 points.
WDIB? was Ayew who scored 9 points and came in for Yaya who didn't make it. Mahrez was surprisingly dropped/rested/rotated and Darmian came in with -1pt from his mauling at Arsenal.
Ville only got 11 players out but he wasn't tempted to use his valuable 2nd transfer.
He captained Aguero, vice captained Sanchez.
Ville scored a whopping 107 and rose to 33k. His team value was £104.0m.
It looks like the Ville Express is right on track.
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So we're up to date and what have we learned?
Ville loves, loves, loves rolled transfers. He'll often roll them for a few weeks too.
He doesn't mind benching injured players even when he can replace them without a hit.
He's prepared to play Russian Roulette with a strong attacking 8, which pre this season, would certainly be seen as a rookie error. This is a difference from Ville of last year, where he filled his bench with base price players.
Perhaps the changed pricing system, where there is no base price playing defenders has influenced this? It simply can't be optimal leaving too much money on the bench and I can't see Ville continuing this all season.
Looking back at last seasons thread, his team value last season coming into GW9 was 104.4m. This season it stands at 104.3m, so a similarity there.
Both seasons, he has wildcarded in GW3, although as he rolled his initial transfer this year, that wasn't his intention.
He is very conservative in his captaincy choices. Since he brought Aguero in, he has captained him every week. He has vice captained Sanchez every week, bar once when he vice captained Yaya.

What's the plan moving forward?
He still has his 2 transfers which is ideal to deal with this Aguero situation. Will he go for Pelle or Lukaku? I'd be surprised if it's Costa/Sturridge.
The reason I'd be surprised if it's Costa/Sturridge is that I think Ville buys players that are playing well from teams that playing well. Ville doesn't seem the type of manager who tries to be too smart and to get in 'ahead of the curve'.
Costa has good potential but isn't playing well and Chelsea certainly aren't playing well. Sturridge is playing well but Pool are not. We don't know how Klopp is going to utilise Sturridge but I think he may use Benteke as his main striker with Sturridge more withdrawn. Nobody really knows yet so I think it's a wait and see. Also Sturridge is very injury prone, so he's unnecessarily risky.
And somebody in midfield, Yaya/Mahrez/Ayew -> KDB?
Ward is coming back from injury, his patience has paid off. I presume he'll want to deal with Darmian at some point. Maybe him->Bellerin/Monreal?
I wonder will we see him bring Walcott back? I've a hunch he will.
I'm going to guess (which was spectacularly unsuccessful last year!);
Aguero->Pelle.
Yaya/Ayew->KDB (leaning towards Ayew).


I'm going to be asking some other Fiso'ers to do guest weeks now so look to your inboxes!
Last edited by Stemania on 31 Aug 2016, 08:48, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Ashers »

Great review of Ville so far.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Ironfist »

Interesting stuff... :)
Last edited by Ironfist on 13 Oct 2015, 13:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by snakzz »

Awesome stuff!:)

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by jeffmcgow »

Great write up Dazzler.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by The Dazzler »

Ironfist wrote:Interesting stuff... although slightly stalker-creepy-esque... :)
We actually have a stalker thread where we follow a number of top players, which you might find interesting.
viewtopic.php?f=82&t=116788

If anyone else (that I haven't contacted) would like to do a guest spot, pm me.
If anybody has any thoughts on Villes playing style that they feel we haven't touched on, please feel free to comment.

Mav3rick is going to be the first up guest manager, in GW9.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Nice idea Dazzler, and great write up.
My money is on Aguero :arrow: Pelle

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by The Dazzler »

Beerfuelledman wrote:Nice idea Dazzler, and great write up.
My money is on Aguero :arrow: Pelle
He has indeed done Aguero -> Pelle.
Will he do another?

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Mo Bot »

Sweet Jesus. Stalking one player isn't enough for you? :wink:

I think he'll give up his precious second transfer this week and agree it will probably be Ayew but possibly for Theo instead of KDB

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by snakzz »

I think Ville has done Aguero -> Lukaku btw and not Pelle :)

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Stower79 »

snakzz wrote:I think Ville has done Aguero -> Lukaku btw and not Pelle :)
If he had 0.0m in the bank and now has 5.0m in the bank then it must be Aguero (13.1 Selling price) :arrow: Pelle 8.1m. Unless I'm missing something?

Pelle does seem like the logical choice as a replacement for Aguero based on recent performance and stats.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by snakzz »

Stower79 wrote:
snakzz wrote:I think Ville has done Aguero -> Lukaku btw and not Pelle :)
If he had 0.0m in the bank and now has 5.0m in the bank then it must be Aguero (13.1 Selling price) :arrow: Pelle 8.1m. Unless I'm missing something?

Pelle does seem like the logical choice as a replacement for Aguero based on recent performance and stats.
But he also lost 0.2 in value TV because Aguero was 13.3?

I dont have my screenshots or numbers here where I am atm, but I think I last night thougt it was Lukaku.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Stower79 »

snakzz wrote:
Stower79 wrote:
snakzz wrote:I think Ville has done Aguero -> Lukaku btw and not Pelle :)
If he had 0.0m in the bank and now has 5.0m in the bank then it must be Aguero (13.1 Selling price) :arrow: Pelle 8.1m. Unless I'm missing something?

Pelle does seem like the logical choice as a replacement for Aguero based on recent performance and stats.
But he also lost 0.2 in value TV because Aguero was 13.3?

I dont have my screenshots or numbers here where I am atm, but I think I last night thougt it was Lukaku.
Aguero's value was 13.3m but his selling value was 13.1m. So it will be Pelle.

I imagine he will be following the Kolarov situation (injury/rotation?) with interest. Maybe Bellerin is on the radar in the near future?

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by thesilkworm »

snakzz wrote:
Stower79 wrote:
snakzz wrote:I think Ville has done Aguero -> Lukaku btw and not Pelle :)
If he had 0.0m in the bank and now has 5.0m in the bank then it must be Aguero (13.1 Selling price) :arrow: Pelle 8.1m. Unless I'm missing something?

Pelle does seem like the logical choice as a replacement for Aguero based on recent performance and stats.
But he also lost 0.2 in value TV because Aguero was 13.3?

I dont have my screenshots or numbers here where I am atm, but I think I last night thougt it was Lukaku.
The 0.2 in lost TV doesn't have any effect on what he has in the bank. If his bank has increased by 5.0 (I haven't checked, but I assume it's the case given Dazzler's post), then it must be Pelle.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by The Dazzler »

snakzz wrote:
Stower79 wrote:
snakzz wrote:I think Ville has done Aguero -> Lukaku btw and not Pelle :)
If he had 0.0m in the bank and now has 5.0m in the bank then it must be Aguero (13.1 Selling price) :arrow: Pelle 8.1m. Unless I'm missing something?

Pelle does seem like the logical choice as a replacement for Aguero based on recent performance and stats.
But he also lost 0.2 in value TV because Aguero was 13.3?

I dont have my screenshots or numbers here where I am atm, but I think I last night thougt it was Lukaku.
Pelle fits, Lukaku doesn't.
£13.1m -> £8.1m leaves £5m in the bank. If he bought Lukaku at £8.3m, he'd have £4.8m in the bank.
He lost the the £0.2m in team value as he sold Aguero who is valued at £13.3m for his selling price of £13.1m. He doesn't matter who he bought (unless they went up), he was going to lose £0.2m in team value.
Quite why he did it yesterday when Pelle is not particularly near a rise, I'm not sure.
Mo Bot wrote:Sweet Jesus. Stalking one player isn't enough for you? :wink:

I think he'll give up his precious second transfer this week and agree it will probably be Ayew but possibly for Theo instead of KDB
Whether and who he uses his 2nd transfer on depends very much on injury news, I guess.
He has Kolarov/Ward/Ayew/Yaya all flagged. If none recover, he would need his 2nd transfer just to get 11 out. If any of the 4 are declared fit, I suppose they'll be likely to stay.
I think all things being equal, he would prefer to use his transfer on the mids rather than the defenders.

In his initial team he had Hazard + Rooney as his captain options (notwithstanding the preplanned Benteke in GW2).
In GW3 he wildcarded and got in Aguero + Sanchez and he almost exclusively has captained and vice captained that pair ever since (bar 1 vice captaincy for Yaya). In the absence of Aguero, he needs another captaincy option.
Ville likes premiums as his captaincy options. KDB fits the bill perfectly, Walcott slightly less so and in any case he can't realistically have 2 Arsenal as his captaincy options. Perhaps he'll be happy enough with Pelle/Martial as his Sanchez captain option alternatives?
If he decides to sell Yaya, I think it'll be KDB, otherwise he'll be down to 1 City player and I think that's unlikely. Particularly as Kolarov might be coming to the end of his run, which leave him with none. Plus KDB just seems like a more reliable captaincy option.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Stemania »

If he has done the standard Kun -> Pelle, my question would be why on earth has he done it so soon? Pelle still has another game to get through!

EDIT - Off topic posts split off. After 5 posts reiterating this one that Pelle had another game It was the discussion moving towards spiritual awakenings did it for me. BFM

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Beerfuelledman »

The Dazzler wrote:
Beerfuelledman wrote:My money is on Aguero :arrow: Pelle
He has indeed done Aguero -> Pelle. Will he do another?
The more I think about it the more I think he'll bring in De Bruyne. I dont think De Bruyne with the highest points per game rating is a player he can ignore any longer. I'm not 100% sure whether he'll replace YaYa or Ayew though - possibly waiting on injury news on both before deciding himself.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Mav3rick »

In my role as this weeks guest Ville Stalker, I thought I would just catch up with his presumed transfers and plan for this GW (thanks to all those above who have done the hard bit by working out his transfer this week for me :)).

He's still not made a second transfer yet this week, and given his apparent love of a rollover and the fact that he can field an XI, I don't suppose he will use that second free either.

Assuming he makes no further transfers, his best starting XI looks like being:

Butland (swa)
Darmian (eve), Richards (che), Francis (mci)
Sanchez (wat), Ayew (STO), Payet (cry), Toure (BOR)
Martial (eve), Pelle (LEI), Vardy/Mahrez (sou)

On the bench he has two injured defenders in Kolarov and Ward, plus the other one of Vardy or Mahrez.

Given the fixtures for Richards and Francis if I were him I would be thinking of my AOA chip and putting Vardy or Mahrez on the field for Richards in a 2-5-3 formation. It's difficult to predict if he will actually do this since we've never seen his approach to these chips, but in his shoes I would play the AOA, or use my second free on Kolarov.

As TD has noted above though, Ville does not mind carrying injured players on the bench, so I'd think he will bench Kolarov meaning it's AOA or Chelsea away for Richards. He may be put off by the Mahrez benching rumour, but I'd hedge that he'll play the AOA as it looks just about an ideal time for it now that Ayew has been declared fit.

In captaincy terms, I'd probably say it's between Sanchez or Toure. He's viced Sanchez in almost every GW since GW3 (Aguero has been captain the whole time) with Yaya being the vice the only time it wasn't Sanchez so I'd say he trusts the bigger hitters more than picking a cheaper player with a decent fixture.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Detroit City FC »

I'll go ahead and throw my hat into the ring. I predict he does no captain Sanchez. He could be a risk to start on the bench coming back from South America and with Bayern Munich looming midweek. I'll go with Pelle(c). Don't see him using that second transfer on DeBruyne either despite how tempting it is since the guys he'd have to take out all have good fixtures. His discipline and patience is admirable.

Great write up and summary Dazzler, really enjoyed the read.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by snakzz »

Looks like ville went ayew->KDB

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Mav3rick »

Yes it looks that way. I guess he likes to captain the player at the top of the polls (or his opinion on captains coincides with the poll leader). That certainly seems to be overriding the defensive injuries in his team.

Let's see if he deploys the AOA (I would with his team this week).

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Beerfuelledman wrote:
The Dazzler wrote:
Beerfuelledman wrote:My money is on Aguero :arrow: Pelle
He has indeed done Aguero -> Pelle. Will he do another?
The more I think about it the more I think he'll bring in De Bruyne
8-)

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Monsignor »

Why would he start Kolarov and Ward ahead of Francis and Richards? Was he expecting both Villa and Bournemouth to concede 6 goals, thus giving their defenders negative points?

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Beerfuelledman »

He starts Kolarov and Ward ahead of Francis and Richards because sometimes managers tell pork pies and sometimes FPL gets it wrong. And if they dont then Francis and Richards come into the side anyway. Ward is only out with a "knock" for example.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Stemania »

Great stuff so far Mav.

Just to consolidate the high quality level of the analysts available to us - next weeks guest stalker will be the man who finished 7th overall last year, our very own silkworm. :mrgreen:


(Plug: As usual, the progress of various other high flyers continues to be followed in Mo's excellent sister stalker thread: viewtopic.php?f=82&t=116788&start=60 :P)

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Moist von Lipwig
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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Moist von Lipwig »

At what point will fiso get slapped with a restraining order? No closer than 500m of his url at any time.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Stower79 »

Interesting decision to get rid of Ayew for De Bruyne.We'll see whether it works out.

In his situation I would have thought it would have been a great opportunity to make a defensive transfer, rather than sell a playing midfielder who scored the week before and has Stoke at home. But I guess that demonstrates how much he really wanted KDB as captain this week. City do have some favourable fixtures after the Manchester derby so it could work out well.

I have Ayew as well and despite his underlying stats not being as good as some others around his price point it does seem he has a knack of popping up in the right place at the right time. Reminds me a bit of a right-sided Tim Cahill.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by Mav3rick »

So, in GW9, Ville did the common transfer of Aguero :arrow: Pelle and then used his banked transfer to also do Ayew :arrow: KDB whom he captained.

He avoided taking a hit and was able to field an XI, although Richards and Francis only scored 1 point between them due to their poor fixtures, he still resisted any urge to bring in any other spare defenders as many on the forum did. He did get rid of Ayew in a move that looked a bit surprising (not KDB in as that was sensible) but Ayew did have a good fixture. I think it was just that Ayew was the obvious out rather than any insight into Ayew's performance against Stoke however so I'd not read too much into that.

He scored a pretty average 58 points and slid a bit in the rankings from 33k to 40k. Overall not bad considering the issues surrounding GW9 and all the players that got dropped or injured, but it was his worst GW rank since GW4.

In terms of how his selections went, he did not play the AOA despite it looking like a good week to do so. As a result he benched Mahrez 4 points, meaning the AOA could have been worth 3 points. Possibly he is saving it for a DGW or maybe he didn't trust Mahrez to start. He does have a strong front 8 now with Mahrez his cheapest attacking player so the AOA could be deployed whenever fixtures are favourable.

His team value now is 104.5.

I think he's shown the continued pattern that he likes to captain the player at the top of the polls, but we don't know if his opinion just happens to coincide with the polls or if he seeks them out. He did avoid captaining Pelle though. I suspect that is an indication that his captaincy won't stray far from Sanchez and KDB over the coming weeks.

His transfer options are almost completely open at this stage and he looks to have a close match to the current template, except maybe for lacking Bellerin in the defence and having the expensive Toure in the midfield using up the bulk of his Aguero cash. He could do a number of things with his 1.7 itb such as downgrade an outfield player, invest in a premium defender or even just strengthen his bench with players in form or with good fixtures. I think Mahrez is his biggest potential problem right now, so I'd imagine he will bank this week, and look to see what needs fixing in GW11.

I'm now handing over the reigns of this thread to the magnificent Silkworm for GW10.

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by thesilkworm »

Thanks Mav - some great work from you and Dazzler so far, will be tough to follow. I'll hold off until the European games are out of the way before I comment (just as I expect Ville to hold off on any decisions until then).

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Re: Let's catch up with Ville

Post by thesilkworm »

As expected, Ville hasn't yet made a transfer.

So what are his options? I'm going to completely rule out the possibility of him making 2+ transfers, as a hit this week seems completely unnecessary (cue his first hit of the season tomorrow morning :)). I'm also going to rule out a goalkeeper transfer. Sure, McCarthy is out of favour, but Butland is doing fine, and Ville has shown in the past that he's happy to carry non-starters if they're not going to be required. That leaves three possible options: a) attacking transfer (I'm lumping in mids and forwards together), b) defender transfer, c) rollover.

Possible Attacking Transfers

Looking at his current team, I think it's extremely unlikely that he'll make an attacking transfer. KDB and Sanchez obviously stay. With Yaya presumably on penalties with Aguero out, I can't see any reason why he'd offload him. His three strikers (Martial, Pelle, Vardy) have nice upcoming runs of fixtures, which he presumably had in mind when he brought them in. If Mahrez gets his place back this weekend, he surely remains an excellent option, so think he'll wait and see on that one. That just leaves Payet. His fixtures are drying up a little, but with attacking returns in his last five games, to drop him now would seem a little extreme.

Of those he could possibly bring in, there's Lukaku/Barkley (better off waiting a week if he wanted to do that), Ozil/Eriksen (potentially good options, but better than his existing mids?), Mata (rotation risk now?), Bony (awkward once Aguero nearing fitness again). Obviously there are other options, but Ville doesn't seem like somebody who's going to take a punt on a player who won't have been heavily discussed here.

Possible Defensive Transfers

I think the only decision here is whether he wants to bring in the in-form Bellerin as a long-term pick. Kolarov has seemingly returned to fitness, Darmian has a good run of fixtures after this weekend, Richards has a good fixture at least this weekend, Ward is just returning from injury and should reclaim his place. That just leaves Francis, who seems like the weakest link in his defence. I don't think he'd normally waste a transfer were it sideways to a similar-priced player, but with the Aguero cash he can get Bellerin (or Coleman next week), so he must surely be considering offloading him at some point.

I think that Bellerin in for Francis is a better transfer than any of the attacking ones, so for me it comes down to whether he thinks it is worth doing this week, or if he's better off holding the transfer and re-assessing next week. As it happens, I have a pretty much identical decision to make this week for my own team.

Rollover

I think he will roll the transfer over. His defence for this week won't be great, but two free transfers could be very useful next week, given Ville's historical love of the rollover, the GW11 shift in fixtures for some teams, the fact that there's no standout 'big-hitter' transfer option this week (he already has the best captain option), and there's also the Mahrez situation to observe.

Captaincy

I'll be very surprised if he doesn't captain Sanchez. It's been mentioned before that he tends to go with whoever tops the polls. I haven't checked the polls this week, but I can only assume Sanchez is top of them all. We don't know whether Ville actually checks the polls, or just always picks the safe/obvious choice. Either way, it's hard to see that armband landing anywhere else.

I'll update if I happen to notice that he's made a transfer pre-deadline. If not, I'll update with the results after the weekend.

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