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Paw's for thought

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Oxford NZ
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Oxford NZ »

Ings to Rondon has merritt, and he has a game in GW31

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Yes, he’s on my radar. Away to Wolves isn’t the best initial fixture, but then again it’s not the worst.
Any other options?


Edit: ...although it’s Pereyra’s price that drops tonight so that’s the switch I’d like to prioritise

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Fuzzy »

In your shoes, I think I would hold. If you are convinced you want Anderson through GW31 then maybe. The flip side of that argument, without being the glass half-empty guy, is that there’s still a lot that could go wrong between now and GW27 and the carried transfer (and funds) could be very valuable.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

I had already made the change by the time you commented. I knew that I didn’t want Pereyra so losing value on him made no sense. I did go for Anderson. I think that he justifies his value and he does have good fixtures through to GW31. His GW27 fixture is as good as it gets. The City fixture isn’t great, but he can be benched for that.
There’s always risk of course, but I can see Man U focusing on the Cup game against Chelsea as it’s their best chance of silverware this season. That would also give Anderson a GW33 fixture.

Back to this game week, with Rashford benched it looks like the move for a playing 12th man was the correct play. He’ll be needed

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Fuzzy »

In the end it was a good call to dump Pererya as well - it was effectively a 2 point hit once Rashford missed. Aside from GKs and bench burners your squad now looks frighteningly similar to mine (perhaps my subconscious wanted to discourage you from wandering down the same road to nowhere that I feel that I am on. Hopefully the destination becomes a little clearer by the next deadline!)

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

So it is! The same 10 outfielders with VVD and TAA fulfilling the same role. Checking your team I saw that, at least temporarily, I am not propping up the rests of the goats. First time this year - I was 70 points adrift not that long ago so this selection of players must have something going for it (even if I am back in 5th by the end of the game week)!

BTW, the transfer was not for a hit. I carried over last week so I am two points to the good. Not world changing, but not to be sniffed at either

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Value Forwards
There’s a lot of chatter about which value forward to pick.
In my case I have Ings who has been in my team specifically for the current run of games but is of no use if he’s on the treatment table so this list is for £6m and below forwards, including the popular Rondon and Barnes.
All the usual caveats about it being a guide. Also note ‘Uncertainty’ that considers volatility.
B12C824F-EFFF-4A9F-B6FF-76F5E1F09795.jpeg
I’ll be priced out of Rondon if there is any price movement on Ings, but would prefer to wait and find out who has blanks rather than jump early
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Brief GW27 Update; B/DGW Planning and a question about GW28 Hits!
GW27 Score 41
First of all the good news! Despite an Anderson captaincy fail I managed a modest green arrow, now up to just over 75K. As I was ranked over 600,000 at Christmas this has been a significant improvement.
Defence
My transfer of Shaw to Lascelles was not a failure per se, but noticing that AWB was injured just after the deadline made it an unnecessary move. As it is AWB will have to warm the bench. I have four good, playing defenders in Robertson*, VVD, Doherty and Lascelles and three of those have a good GW31. They saved my game week, contributing 26 points between them. The defence stands
Midfield and Attack
Nothing to see here. At all. Five players, one with the arm band, and they contributed 14 points in all.
We go again next week is about the best rallying call I can give. Well, some of them...

Dropping like flies
Unfortunately I only had 10 starters for GW27, and it looks like I'll struggle to get that many out for GW28. My concerns are:
AWB - Injured
Masuaku - Dropped
Ings - Injured
Rashford - Ankle. No idea how long he's out for
Robertson - Flagged on FFFix with a 'see how he is'
Aguero - Nothing official, just a bit of doubt after playing 120 minutes and with an easy game. If I was Pep I'd play Jesus (I am strongly not in the Pep doesn't know what he's doing camp. I think he does. That doesn't mean I always predict his moves, but I do typically see the logic)

GW 31 Planning
Having successfully used my Triple Captain on Aguero a couple of weeks ago, the FH32, WC34, BB35 option looks most optimal for my team. That means that with one eye on GW33 I need only really focus on GW31.
I have five playing GW31 players in 3xLiv, Lascelles and Anderson. Masuaku picks up splinters and blocks a third West Ham player
That means bringing in a few more certain starters, as follows:

GW28 - Son, Rashford and Ings OUT; Vardy, Rondon and Barnes IN (-8)
GW29/GW30 - Lloris and Masuaku OUT; Fabianski and <probably> Fraser IN
GW31 - I may not need to do anything. That would give me a GW31 team of ten starters

GW31 Probable Team
Fabianski (HUD)
Robertson (Ful), VVD (Ful), Lascelles (Bou)
Salah (Ful), Anderson (HUD), Fraser (NEW), Barnes (Bur)
Vardy (Bur), Rondon (Bou)
Non-Playing Bench: Patricio, AWB, Doherty, Pogba, Aguero

I have money tied up in each of these and so the decision on the final player is likely to come down to GW33 & WildCard planning. Aguero to Arnautovic is an obvious consideration. Chelsea coverage might then be an option. That bit can wait. My two questions, and I have to make the move(s) tonight, are:

1. Shall I take the -8 this week rather than over the next few weeks to increase the chances of 11 on the pitch?
2. Can you help me to a better solution than Son, Rashford and Ings OUT; Vardy, Rondon and Barnes IN (-8)?


As ever, thanks
SP

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Joccki_10 »

I think it’s likely we get an update on Rashford tomorrow but I get that it could cost you £0.1 in selling value if you wait.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by raoul »

That's Barnes of Leicester I presume?

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Raoul: Yes, I did consider both Barneses. The Leicester one looked really lively the couple of times I saw him in the Championship so, at £5.5M, I think he's worth a gamble. Maddison is the other option. That'd mean Brooks (if fit) instead of Fraser. I don't want to risk him being unfit.
I think there's little to choose between Rondon and Burnley Barnes, Newcastle's fixtures are that little bit kinder in the weeks I'll need them though

Joccki: I don't know if the prognosis helps that much. Man U have an poor run apart from DGW32 and I'll be able to take advantage of that anyway with my Free Hit. It was Son that I had most concern about

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by raoul »

I have Ashley Barnes and he's been fabulous value in the 2 weeks I've had him. But yes Harvey looks good.

Almiron. That's my plan. Looks very lively.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

GW28 Update
*Milestone Alert*
Every year my modest FPL target is to finish in the Top 1% of players. That always used to mean finishing around 30k-40k, and now thanks to the increased popularity of FPL it means c.60k.
Whilst I wouldn’t actually be happy with 60k OR, this week, for the first time, I have hit my only real target. There are 6.2m players and after a 73(-8) I am now at 61k.
Many on here are ranked much higher. From 600k at Christmas I have had a good run.

It can all go horribly wrong, something that Ville knows all about. When I was 600k he was 817th. For now I am ahead of him! For today I’ll enjoy it.

Where the points did and didn’t come from
Primarily Van Dijk and Robertson. Lascelles, Vardy, Pogba and Kün chipped in with contributions.
Patricio and Doherty looked like doing the same. Sod underlying numbers, Wolves really don’t seem able to buy a clean sheet. The pair have this week as a stay of execution and if they can’t provide returns against Cardiff at home at least one of them is going to get the Alan Sugar ‘You’re Fired!’ treatment.
Salah is also a concern. Another blank meant another captaincy fail. Liverpool did turn a corner (how important is TAA to them these days?) so maybe he’ll catch a break. It won’t be with the armband from me this coming week though.

That -8
I don’t regret the hits and yet it didn’t pay immediate returns. Vardy scored which was a good start. Barnes and Rondon did nothing. The niggle is that Maddison, who I considered over Barnes, did get returns.

GW29
Holding the transfer to make two next week once Bournemouth’s fixtures pick up. So for this week my team is likely to be:
Patricio (CAR)
Robertson(Eve), VVD(Eve), Doherty(CAR)
Salah(Eve), Pogba(C?)(Sou), Anderson(NEW), Barnes(Wat)
Aguero(Bou), Vardy(Wat), Rondon(WHam)
Bench:Lloris, Lascelles plus injured Masuaku and AWB
I might bring forward by a week the Masuaku->Fraser transfer if there’s doubt about any of the above

Footnote: Congratulations Tall Paul on pipping me to the Divisionals title. A deserved winner.
A bit of trivia that positions 2-4 were all taken by 1FCKöln 5AS team mates. Fuzzy, FingerPass, one of us will go one better next time, non?

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

GW29
Weekly score 38; OR 71k (down c.9k)

This was the week of the Pogba incident. The one where against my better judgement I captained him; and also against my better judgement I had AWB as 12th man. Pogba’s -2 will be forgotten sooner than later because the other popular Captain options of Kün and Salah also blanked. PEA also missed a penalty and almost everyone had a mediocre week - apart from one chap now leading one of my mini leagues. He cashed in with contributions from Pickford, VVD, Robertson, Rice, Bennett, Hazard, Deeney, Jiménez, Batshuayi for 85 points. I was only 5 points behind him last week!
The plus side of this is that it reminds me that the top 10k is still only a really good game week away.

That was more fun than talking about my 38 points. New signing Fabianski got points. Not as many as outgoing Lloris but it softened the blow. Last week’s new boy Vardy also contributed again, as did my two Liverpool defenders. That’s about it.

GW30
Likely to be Masuaku to Fraser and then another benching headache next week. I had hoped he’d drop in price and now everybody is bringing him in.
Any further views on Fraser v. Brooks would be appreciated, it’ll make a difference to the defender I bring in for GW31

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Fraser vs Brooks is why I'll transfer in Bournemouth next week. Brooks seems the ideal enabler right now. If he's playing central, I'm definitely getting him in.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

GW30
Decided to hold the transfer and kick the decision down the road.
Any Bournemouth player coming in this week would see Leicester Barnes or Rondon take to the bench and both have good fixtures. Lascelles is a reasonable 12th man. Doherty placed after him provides strength in depth. In fact the chance of having points on the bench this week is higher than normal.

Fabianski
Robertson - VVD - AWB
Salah(vc) - Anderson - Pogba - Barnes
Aguero(c) - Vardy - Rondon

GW31
I have spent the last three days committed to Aguero out and Hazard in (via Masuaku to a Bournemouth player). Greater clarity around DGW32 is leading me to question taking Aguero out. At least it is now next week’s problem..

DGW32 - Free Hit
In the Blanks/Doubles thread Ruth has posted a very helpful outline of probably doubles. Based on these and after some initial tinkering I can finesse from:

Lloris
Shaw - Otamendi - Azpilicueta - (AWB/Doherty/mid?)
Pogba - Sterling - Hazard - (Sissoko?)
Rashford - Aguero - Higuain

Eight of the nine outfield players are probable
Ederson might come into goal if City defence is uncertain, a number of players being close to a come back around then
Son would be great if Spurs do get a double. Probably out of reach budget wise
Keeper and the final Def/Mid (plus the Otamendi alternative) I have given little thought to. Not a bad starting point though. Have I missed anything?

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by blahblah »

Lloris is is at Anfield?

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

blahblah wrote: 10 Mar 2019, 11:59 Lloris is is at Anfield?
Yes, it’d be for savepoints that game and then the expected White Hart Lane home game against Palace or Brighton.
As I say in the post, very little thought went into the keeper choice. Good to know that, given my budget, a premium is possible if I want it though

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

GW30 Recap
54 points; a rise of 165 places in the overall rankings from 71k to 71k :!: Well it’s a green arrow :D

Saturday went well. Vardy and Rondon have well and truly repaid the -8 to get them in a couple of weeks ago. Even Harry Barnes got points.
Sadly I have Aguero (c) rather than Sterling. Fortunately I think we’ve now finally put to bed the moaning about Aguero’s DGW hat trick given the bounce that Sterling backers received this GW (for those still on Sane - where have you been??)
Anyway no hard feelings, he had a brilliant game with or without the good fortune on the first goal.

Sunday was much less fun. Salah did get the one assist. My Liverpool defensive double up didn’t. Days like that are the reason why I probably won’t triple up in defence when I wildcard. At least Pogba got positive point.

GW31 Planning
It’s looking alright from five days out. I should have a decent eleven.
I jumped on the Wilson and Hazard switches early to take advantage of price rises.
Lascelles is the main injury risk
Anderson is the current liability risk
To give me a playing 12th man a -4 is an option. It’d be on Saturday lunchtime if Palace already look like going out of the Cup (a scenario in which I’d need to take a hit in GW33 anyway). In that scenario I’d break even over the two split game weeks. If so Lascelles might take a knee and a Chelsea or Bournemouth defender come in.

GW31 Team
82B7CEA7-3EF8-4452-8D87-46FC5D5806D9.jpeg
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Joccki_10 »

Smurphy's Paw wrote:Fortunately I think we’ve now finally put to bed the moaning about Aguero’s DGW hat trick given the bounce that Sterling backers received this GW (for those still on Sane - where have you been??)
Agüero got two hat-tricks. :oops:

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Joccki_10 wrote: 11 Mar 2019, 23:43
Smurphy's Paw wrote:Fortunately I think we’ve now finally put to bed the moaning about Aguero’s DGW hat trick given the bounce that Sterling backers received this GW (for those still on Sane - where have you been??)
Agüero got two hat-tricks. :oops:
Oh, yes 8-) 8-)

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Lascelles is out tomorrow so I need a defender for a hit to play in 31&33
Options that occur to me are:
Lascelles to £6m - Luiz? Pereira?
Doherty to £6.3m - Azpi. Lose £0.5m and possibly want Doherty back on FH32

Currently thinking Pereira or Luiz. Any thoughts or ways to improve that?
Thanks

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Oxford NZ »

Hold Doc imo , Not just because of the team value tied up but because he will be a good pick GW32
I have Pereira but if Chelsea get a bit more steady I would have gone Luiz as well as Azpi, one Chelsea defender seems enough.
Lascelles to Luiz or Rudiger would be my best guess.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

GW31 Preview
Barring unexpected rotation I have a good first eleven for this weekend’s short game week. As these are in the main popular players there shouldn’t be too much downside if there are any no-shows (I really shouldn’t suggest this in advance!). Anderson has been poor recently so has to be the main doubt.

Since BGW27 I have taken three hits to get here, the moves for Vardy/Rondon/Barnes having already paid for the -8 I took a few weeks ago when I had an injury ravaged team. I had one eye on 31/33, and the other on good fixtures over the arc of the few game weeks in between. Plus moving early has done my TV some good as others have brought in the same. I guess that also explains why my team looks a bit ‘template’ (ex-Mané)
Transfers this week were:
Masuaku - Hazard
Aguero - Wilson
Lascelles (-4) - Luiz

It’s a shame that I had to make the last one. It does mean that I already have 10 certainties for GW33, with AWB and Rondon equally likely to have a game. And by bringing Luiz in now he pays for himself through appearance points alone, never mind any extras he picks up so I should be able to get through the B/DGW unless there any injury related transfers required.

Can’t wait for the deadline to start Free Hitting. Until then, here’s how they line up:
2C8B3E2E-4265-4417-A4DE-FBF1BB3A94E5.jpeg
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

GW31
The less said, the better I think. 31(-4) was sadly par for the week.
That’s not that the approach was wrong. Last year slowly building a BGW31 team from peripheral players, to play the whole B/DGW as an arc of fixtures worked out rather well. With 10 on the pitch last year I scored 101 points against an average of 30. So focusing on the BGW as an opportunity is without doubt the right thing to do. I took a third off my ranking last time.
Anyway, 31 is gone

DGW32
Free Hit Time
Questions to mull over:
1. Kane or Jiménez. I think Jiménez will play twice. I’d like Kane as a differential. There’s a lot one can do with c.£6m though
2. 4-4-2 or 3-5-2
Really this comes down to ‘is there a midfield player for £7.6m to £8m who would improve this lot? Who?
(The lower figure would allow me AWB on the bench just in case)
C84AF0E3-C8FB-4D9F-9F4C-477BAA50E682.jpeg
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Or with Kane:
9EFD7D85-4FA6-4166-A41F-66673362586B.jpeg
Sterling to Silva the main impact
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by gingafalcao »

Do you really want to leave without Sterling?
In case of a two-digit score, his property may bring you down.
Smurphy's Paw wrote: 20 Mar 2019, 14:38...Really this comes down to ‘is there a midfield player for £7.6m to £8m who would improve this lot?
Milivojevic?

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Fair point about Sterling. I have tried a number of variations and keep being £0.1m short - or else I compromie and I only have two MU, two Chelsea, etc.
Nothing better to post yet!

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by raoul »

must you have 3 CHE and 3 MU?

Other than Hazard I am struggling to see a no-brainer Chelsea option (perhaps Kepa, if only to avoid Ederson and open up a 3rd outfield MC player).

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Joccki_10
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Joccki_10 »

Kane/Agüero/Jiménez would be my frontline if I was to use my FH. Would it be impossible to have Sterling & Hazard as well?

I won’t go near Shaw. If he gets a yellow against Watford, he won’t have a DGW. One United defender is more than enough imo.

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