Pointless Sweepstake - THE BIRTHDAY PROBLEM.

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RomynPG
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Pointless Sweepstake - THE BIRTHDAY PROBLEM.

Post by RomynPG »

A pointless sweepstake to help fill in the week - I'll keep it open for a while.
(This is based on the Birthday Problem - a description of which can be found here)


:!: There are 380 EPL fixtures this year.
:!: There are 23 people on the pitch at the start of each game, 2 x 11 plus the referee.


:?: In how many fixtures do/will at least 2 of these 23 people share a birthday.:?:



To get the ball rolling I'll go with the odds and say 193.

Guess away...don't be shy :D

Closing Date: A while away - probably around end of March
Last edited by RomynPG on 21 Feb 2007, 17:35, edited 1 time in total.

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CanaryYellow
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Post by CanaryYellow »

Given my theory that there are more pro footballers born in September/October/Novemeber and December than any other month then i'll say over 200.

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Post by murf »

CanaryYellow wrote:Given my theory that there are more pro footballers born in September/October/Novemeber and December than any other month then i'll say over 200.
By that theory all the refs are born in August :wink:

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Post by amshimself »

I'll have a pop at 68

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Post by reds363 »

Romyn - you're not actually going to go through all 380 matches (and starting line-ups) and check it out are you??? :shock:


I'll go for 188.

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Post by Brightwater »

208

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Post by Digsby »

Just pulled this from the when's your birthday thread (think it was my 1st ever post):

Only recently joines the forum and, quite frankly, can't be arsed to trawl through all of this thread to check people's birthdays but have something which may be of interest to all you punters aho fancy conning your mates out of a few quid...

I recently read Amarillo Slim's book and in there is one of his greatest gambling schemes (in the book he scams Evel Knievel with this one).

Slim would find 30 people completely at random and bet any amount of money that at least 2 of them would share the same birthday:

'The only proof I need is that of the dozens of times I've made that bet I've never lost........It's simple statistics; if you choose 23 people at random, it's even money that 2 will have the same birthday. When you poll 30 people, the odds go up to 70%.'

I've tried this out myself 3 times now because I still didn't believe it would work and guess what......all 3 times it did!


By the way I'll go for 190.

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RomynPG
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Post by RomynPG »

reds363 wrote:Romyn - you're not actually going to go through all 380 matches (and starting line-ups) and check it out are you??? :shock:
:D

(I'm up-to-date though and it only takes about 15mins a gw now)

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Post by marxist »

163 for me.

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Post by trigger happy »

I am assuming that we are accounting for leap years.
If so, I am going for 189 (rounded up)

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Post by nemo »

194 - the number of posts I've made on FISO :)

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Post by Tort »

im going 131

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Post by andycoull »

Digsby wrote:Just pulled this from the when's your birthday thread (think it was my 1st ever post):

Only recently joines the forum and, quite frankly, can't be arsed to trawl through all of this thread to check people's birthdays but have something which may be of interest to all you punters aho fancy conning your mates out of a few quid...

I recently read Amarillo Slim's book and in there is one of his greatest gambling schemes (in the book he scams Evel Knievel with this one).

Slim would find 30 people completely at random and bet any amount of money that at least 2 of them would share the same birthday:

'The only proof I need is that of the dozens of times I've made that bet I've never lost........It's simple statistics; if you choose 23 people at random, it's even money that 2 will have the same birthday. When you poll 30 people, the odds go up to 70%.'

I've tried this out myself 3 times now because I still didn't believe it would work and guess what......all 3 times it did!


By the way I'll go for 190.
Total Coincidence. I was trawling through looking for something completely different when I found a link to Icebreakers. Occasionally I have to get a group together and like to use these......

Coincidences

This is an ice breaker that my father (an amateur magician) used to use.

This works well with larger numbers. Ask people to guess how many people you would have to ask before you found two people who have the same birthday. Ask them to call their guess out and write down the answers. Most people think that it will be a number over 100.

Then get people to write down their birthday (just the day and the month) on a big sheet of paper. Get them to call their date out in turn. Write these down on a flip chart. Statistically the average is just 26 people to find a pair that have the same birthday.

You can end by saying, "Isn't that an amazing coincidence. Now talking about coincidences my presentation will now reveal..." and then you are off.

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Post by Lucky7s »

nemo wrote:194 - the number of posts I've made on FISO :)
195 now! so I will take that one. :D

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Post by FingerPass »

When Gallas and Henry are fit Arsenal will have two players every game who share the exact same (not just day but year too) birthday.

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Post by Jumbles »

I'll go for 150.

I found this sampling a matchday from the 97 season. Interesting (but baffling) reading.

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Post by cn06sjh »

I'll go for a nice round 200

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Post by murf »

Jumbles wrote:I'll go for 150.

I found this sampling a matchday from the 97 season. Interesting (but baffling) reading.
"a recent survey of university students found a median value for the estimated size of gathering needed of 385"

The thick wazzocks!!!!

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Post by sligorover »

121 :?:

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Post by viddleodge »

1 69 please. :)

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Post by irishraider »

I'll go with 197 please.

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Post by uppompei »

37 is my guess!!

Have I read the question wrong or are you all over estimating?

Maybe I cannot read?

MD

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Post by Tort »

Can i be Uber pedantic? I will anyway

Mark Swarcher was born on the 6th oct 1972 in Australia (GMT +9, it varies mind)
Sami Hyypia was born on the 7th oct 1973 in Finland (GMT +1)
Gilberto Silva was born in Brazil on the 7th oct 1976 (GMT -3)

This means Swarcher's B'day starts in the uk at 10am on the 6th of October until 10am 7th October

Sami's starts 11pm on the 6th and goes through to 11pm on the 7th

Gilberto's starts 3am on the 7th and runs until 3am on the 8th of october

This means at some point in time all three share the same birthday

as the chart shows

Image

Will this type of reasoning be included in the final figures?

:wink:

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Post by redrum »

Tort wrote:Can i be Uber pedantic? I will anyway

Mark Swarcher was born on the 6th oct 1972 in Australia (GMT +9, it varies mind)
Sami Hyypia was born on the 7th oct 1973 in Finland (GMT +1)
Gilberto Silva was born in Brazil on the 7th oct 1976 (GMT -3)

This means Swarcher's B'day starts in the uk at 10am on the 6th of October until 10am 7th October

Sami's starts 11pm on the 6th and goes through to 11pm on the 7th

Gilberto's starts 3am on the 7th and runs until 3am on the 8th of october

This means at some point in time all three share the same birthday

as the chart shows

Image

Will this type of reasoning be included in the final figures?

:wink:
:shock: nerd-alert, nerd-alert
8-)

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Post by R_U_Sure »

Finland is GMT+2! :evil:

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Post by RomynPG »

Tort wrote:Will this type of reasoning be included in the final figures?
:wink:
I somehow doubt it :lol:

As FingerPass pointed out with the Henry/Gallas situation there are team-mate combinations that may come up - I think there are around 4 pairs like this although I can't remember off-hand what they are - only that there are a few.

With ref to leap years Trigger Happy - good spot - I hadn't allowed for that. I'm assuming I make those with birthdays on 29/2 to 28/2. That said out of the 3 players with 29/2 only one has started a game this season - Darren Ambrose (Pollitt has played once but didn't start and Golbourne (REA) is out on loan).

uppompei - while not wanting to give anything away, with respect to how the totals are looking now, out of the two options you gave - Have I read the question wrong or are you all over estimating - I suspect the former :wink:

Other notables while I'm here. Out of the 631 players listed on FPL there are 3 born on New Years day, Elliott (NEW) had a rotten childhood getting only one lot of presents at Christmas and 18/2 is the most popular with 7 getting older on that day.

...and all but 1 (who have played > 1min) are younger than me :(

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Post by redrum »

RomynPG wrote:Other notables while I'm here. Out of the 631 players listed on FPL there are 3 born on New Years day, Elliott (NEW) had a rotten childhood getting only one lot of presents at Christmas and 18/2 is the most popular with 7 getting older on that day.
9 months before 18/2 is 18/5. bit of a stretch but could you argue that their footy loving parents were celebrating after an FA cup win the year before :) .

usually amusing to check how many are born on/around 1 October too ...

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Post by atx1303 »

178 for me...

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Post by WHATEVER »

235

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Post by CanaryYellow »

Romyn im presuming you have been collecting birthday data? Am i right in my assumption that there are more premiership footballers born between September and December than any other 4 month block?

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