GAME STRATEGY - THEORY
1 Review full draw, player prices, betting odds and tipster guides.
2 Base main selections on recent form and bookie prices in each quarter.
3 Evaluate potential last eight before picking your finalists and at least one other semi-finalist.
4 Aim for five in each half of the draw, and at least two in every quarter.
5 Look for value in R1 & potential R2 matches, ie where odds favours player who costs less.
6 Fill in with cheaper selections; eg the 30 or so wild cards and qualifiers cost £1.0m
- - give preference to Qs as they've survived/experienced three preliminary rounds
- WCs, however, might just be the pampered locals at each Grand Slam...
PRACTICE - Team Picks
Code: Select all
draw £m MEN Qrtr odds
Q1U 11.0 Djokovic (1) 1/3F
Q1L 2.0 Zverev 80
Q2U 8.0 Wawrinka (4) 7/4F
3.0 Baghdatis 40
Q2L 1.0 De Schepper (Q) 1,000
Q3U 3.0 Pospisil 100
Q3L 9.5 Murray (3) 1/2F
2.5 Dolgopolov 40
Q4U 1.0 Mahut (W) 50
Q4L 9.0 Federer (2) 4/5F
- -
50.0
Notes
Spent £37.5m on top four seeds; obvious picks as they're also favourite in each quarter.
Considered Nishikori in lower half of Q1 but settled on Wawrinka who cost 8m too but is Q2 favourite.
Also looked at Berdych, 8.0m, in upper half of Q4 but picked Federer who's just 1m more.
That left 12.5m for remaining six players:
- picked at least one in upper & lower halves of every quarter so team-mates couldn’t meet until R4
also ensured there were five in each half of the draw
based remaining assumptions on betting in each quarter
- Zverev is favoured to win two matches, including R2 against seeded Cuevas
Baghdatis is also favourite to win first match and also second against seeded Robredo
De Schepper should win first round tie against fellow qualifer
Pospisil could beat seeded Fognini in round two and, with Ferrer out, could then reach last 16
Dolgopolov is 1/7 to win first round and is same price as seeded Karlovic, likely R2 opponent
wild card Mahut is 1/7 to win opening match before coming up against Berdych.
So, with luck, all ten could win R1 ties and at least eight go on to R3, the last 32.
First round is in progress so waiting for pratfall now… In any case, feel free to comment.
Women's team selected on similar basis
Code: Select all
draw £m WOMEN Qrtr odds
Q1U 11.0 Williams, S (1) 4/9F
Q1L 4.5 Bencic (30) 16 2F
Q2U 3.75 Gavrilova 66
1.0 Sasnovich (Q) 150
Q2L 4.0 Stephens 6
Q3U 7.0 Kerber (10) 3JF
Q3L 5.75 Lisicki (18) 3JF
Q4U 1.75 Konjuh 16
2.5 Maria 200
Q4L 8.0 Kvitova (2) 11/10F
- - -
49.25
Realize it's difficult trying to explain strategy but hope others will also make attempt.