CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

[Maldini]

Great thread Cpt P.

Very helpful and saved me an awful lot of work. Appreciate you sharing this.

Cheers

[Billy Stark]

Thanks for the input on Countinho - i hadn't looked at Brazil stats & just assumed he was a regular starter as he's the most expensive mid. Its now a choice of KDB or hazard for the 3rd starting midfield slot.

Not looked into it enough but my instinct would suggest Hazard and there's a chance KDB will sit a little deeper with the exclusion of Nainggolan. Would expect Mertens, Hazard and Lukaku the front 3.

[sarllm]

Coutinho has started 3 out of Brazil’s last 4 games based on my basic google skills. He maybe playing recently as Neymars been injured since January, but for what it’s worth Neymar and Coutinho both started against Chile in Oct 2017 (last international before neymars injury) Still a gamble though obviously....


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[LAMPS27]

I have been looking at the predicted Russian lineup, from what I have read the manager looks set to go with a 3-5-2.

The problem is it looks like neither wing back is listed as a defender so we could be faced with just 3 defenders.

If this is the case, I guess the best strategy is to go 3-4-3/3-5-2 and select a Russian MID/STR to then be moved onto a DEF when making the first block tfr.

Or would it be best to save the tfr and start with a player from the second block team?

I guess this could be a problem with other sides that play 3 at the back. Hopefully there isn't too many to complicate things further.

[CptPugwash]

Finalised on 15 entries.
First batch of 6 entered - all identical for now.
Ambling Amoebas, Blistering Barnacles, Coddling Catfish, Dithering Dogfish, Electrifying Eels, & Fiddling Fishhooks.
4-3-3
Russian back 5
Samedov 4.6 ; Hazard 5.4 ; Eriksen 5.1
Smolov 3.7 ; Cavani 6.0 ; Griezzman 6.6

4. Will all the players be listed for block defences? TFF usually pretty good aren't they? Couldn't see any Russian wing backs?

I have been looking at the predicted Russian lineup, from what I have read the manager looks set to go with a 3-5-2.

The problem is it looks like neither wing back is listed as a defender so we could be faced with just 3 defenders.

If this is the case, I guess the best strategy is to go 3-4-3/3-5-2 and select a Russian MID/STR to then be moved onto a DEF when making the first block tfr.

Or would it be best to save the tfr and start with a player from the second block team?

I guess this could be a problem with other sides that play 3 at the back. Hopefully there isn't too many to complicate things further.

Great point raised by edmondson & Lamps27 - well worth having a contingency in advance rather than trying to rush changes through at the last minute without aforethought
If, as seems likely Russia start with only 3 listed defenders, my plan is to 3-4-3 for those teams i intend to keep the Russian block for 2 games. For those teams with a planned first round defensive block switch I'll start with 1 defender from the first planned switch. It's a lot easier guessing 1 defensive starter than all 4 for a lot of teams.

[Noquarternt]

Hi, I’ve been playing FPL for a while but would like to try the Telegraph World Cup one this year and would like to say this thread is fantastic.

I was wondering about the merits of say a 532 formation using the normal GK+Back 4 block but using the 5th defender spot for someone like Trippier who looks to be first choice for Eng at wingback vs Tunisia and Panama, on free kicks and most importantly extremely cheap. I’ve run a few of my own plans and makes it easier to swap in higher roof attackers (ie Neymar over Cout) for their best games. I think there are enough quality midfielders (Hazard, Mueller, Isco etc) to make the loss of a striker spot not an enormous issue.

Despite these musings I’m a new player and was wondering if anyone else agrees or has any advice!

(PS I like your defensive blocks with Spain as this gives you penalty taking Ramos in a tournament with VAR that increased penalties by ~5% in the German and Italian leagues). I know it’s a small amount...but all about boosting your % yeah? thanks guys

[CptPugwash]

I was wondering about the merits of say a 532 formation using the normal GK+Back 4 block but using the 5th defender spot for someone like Trippier who looks to be first choice for Eng at wingback vs Tunisia and Panama, on free kicks and most importantly extremely cheap. I’ve run a few of my own plans and makes it easier to swap in higher roof attackers (ie Neymar over Cout) for their best games. I think there are enough quality midfielders (Hazard, Mueller, Isco etc) to make the loss of a striker spot not an enormous issue.

I'll be starting 4 or 5 of my 15 teams with 5-3-2. Most of the time I expect to split the back 6 3-3, rather than 5-1. That allows a lot of options on selection, choosing between the cheapest defenders or upgrading to those with more attacking potential where funds allow.
They will all start with 2 from of Russia/Uruguay/France. I'll play it by ear for possible first round switches to Argentina/Brazil/Belgium/England.
The plan will be to start with Smolov & Cavani up front. Cavani to daisy chain in the first round & Smolov to daisy chain in the second round.
I then expect to switch to 4-3-3 in round 3
& daisy chain the 3rd forward. That plan requires either having a Russian or Uruguayan defender at the start of round 3 if i want to transfer in Ronaldo or a Spanish striker.

[Vesalius73]

Brilliant thread Cpt, thanks. With everyone taking your advice we'll have about a dozen joint firsts

[sarllm]

Admittedly I’m not going out to win the whole thing just a single entry super league, but Jesus, gambling on a Russia clean sheet looks suicidal to me. They are woeful in recent games and haven’t played a competitive game in years. I guess SA aren’t great opponents, Russia with weight of a nation etc...but I’d be scared. Worth a gamble with multiple entries as most of you guys do I suppose, but from a stats view point I’d run a mile!

I’ve really enjoyed reading this thread though- thanks all! Bring on the unexpected results!!!!!


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[LAMPS27]

A couple of thoughts on some points raised through the thread;

Spain Block + SPA Str + Ronaldo before their second group games
I was playing around with potential transfers and to have say Costa, the Spanish back 5 and Ronaldo it's very difficult to keep under budget. Has anyone found a way without backwards transfers to get this combination.

The problem is Ronaldo is key for the last 2 games v Iran and Morocco, no rotation risk as well so I expect most will leave him until the end of the group stage once transferred in.

Spain also play after Portugal so Ronaldo has to come in first which doesn't help.

Even with Smolov as an enabler I can't get all of these players all together. Anyone with similar issues?

Sterling Group H enabler after England v Panama
Is the thought process to drop Sterling solely to free up funds, therefore the logic is to go with someone who will play 2 times in MID (Group H player).

There's not a lot of options, Mane is the best option but £4.6m only saves £0.4m on Sterling. I think Zielinski at £3.9m is the next best and netting tonight against Chile can only add to his value.

What to do with Smolov?
Linked to the issue with funds above, I would like to leave Smolov in the 11 as an enabler for all 3 group games. He's hard to upgrade given his price, for those starting with him. What's the plan? Keep for all games and act as an enabler then swap for 1 Transfer, swap after 2 games so he avoids Uruguay but will likely mean he uses up budget or get rid after Saudi Arabia?

Under a week to go now, big decisions to be made!

[CptPugwash]

4 Teams entered in a 5-3-2 Formation.
Lampooning Lampreys; Meddling Molluscs; Nautical Nitwits; & Overbearing Octopuses.
All 4 teams currently with the same front 5. Before the deadline i'll have some sort of plan for the transfers and see which of my teams need to find a downgrade somewhere.


Midfield
Samedov (RUS) 4.6m
Eriksen (DEN) 5.1m
Hazard (BEL) 5.4m
Forwards
Smolov (RUS) 3.7m
Cavani (URU) 6.0m

Total 24.8M

Nautical Nitwits: Uruguay/France
Muslera 3.3M; Godin 3.9M, Gimenez 3.3M, Mendy 3.7M, Varane 3.9M, Umiti 4.3M Total 47.2M

Overbearing Octopuses; Meddling Molluscs: Uruguay/Russia
Muslera 3.3M; Godin 3.9M, Gimenez 3.3M, Kudryashev3.7M, Kutepov 2.8M, Smolnikov 3.5M Total 45.3M

Lampooning Lampreys France/Russia
Lloris 3.7M; Mendy 3.7M, Varane 3.9M, Kudryashev3.7M, Kutepov 2.8M, Smolnikov 3.5M Total 46.1M

[CptPugwash]

A couple of thoughts on some points raised through the thread;

Spain Block + SPA Str + Ronaldo before their second group games
I was playing around with potential transfers and to have say Costa, the Spanish back 5 and Ronaldo it's very difficult to keep under budget. Has anyone found a way without backwards transfers to get this combination.

The problem is Ronaldo is key for the last 2 games v Iran and Morocco, no rotation risk as well so I expect most will leave him until the end of the group stage once transferred in.

Spain also play after Portugal so Ronaldo has to come in first which doesn't help.

Even with Smolov as an enabler I can't get all of these players all together. Anyone with similar issues?

Without fielding a complete second rate midfield i think there are 2 sensible choices.
Either
a) Finish the first set of fixtures 4-4-2 with say Smolov & Cavani (having switched out your 3rd striker for a midfielder at the end of the first set of fixtures, and then go 5-3-2 for the Spain game. That delays the issue if you want to keep Ronaldo & Costa after the 2nd game, as you would still have to find funds for the 3rd striker.
b) The second option is to find a true enabler at the end of the first set.

Blaszczykowski 4.2m or Kouyate 4.1m or one of the N'Diaye's for 2.5m/2.3m

I'm hoping A N'Diaye will provide the answer for 2.3M. He's started the last 2 games, even got an assist in the last game against Croatia, that's just icing on the cake. Keep that under your hat though, don't want everyone to find it easy to put out a Spanish block.

Sterling Group H enabler after England v Panama
Is the thought process to drop Sterling solely to free up funds, therefore the logic is to go with someone who will play 2 times in MID (Group H player).

There's not a lot of options, Mane is the best option but £4.6m only saves £0.4m on Sterling. I think Zielinski at £3.9m is the next best and netting tonight against Chile can only add to his value.

It's a bit of a 2 way thought process. I'm expecting, along with most people that group H will be very competitive. Therefore relatively little chance of rotation for the 3rd game. We get the chance to assess the Group H teams before making any decisions. I'd love to squeeze in Rodriguez (Col) as he was by a million miles the best player at the last world cup.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Sterling plays through the middle and Belgium go dutch and implode, in which case i'd want to keep Sterling.
[/quote]

What to do with Smolov?
Linked to the issue with funds above, I would like to leave Smolov in the 11 as an enabler for all 3 group games. He's hard to upgrade given his price, for those starting with him. What's the plan? Keep for all games and act as an enabler then swap for 1 Transfer, swap after 2 games so he avoids Uruguay but will likely mean he uses up budget or get rid after Saudi Arabia?

Under a week to go now, big decisions to be made!

Let's start at the top 3.7M for the main striker playing for the home nation in the opening game, in the weakest group has got to be a bargain, even taking into account Russia's form.
The plan for all my teams would be to dump him after 2 games, but that comes with 2 caveats.
Firstly if Russia/Samedov are worse than i expect and/or Egypt look solid at the back, he might have to go after 1 game, as long as i have another way to bring Ronaldo in.
Conversely if Samedov does the business in the first 2 games, I might keep him for the 3rd. However that means if i want Ronaldo for Game 2 I have to go 4-4=2 at the end of round 1, and would need another Russian to switch out. That does have the benefit of being able to drop Ronaldo after game 2 & be able to bring him back for game 3.

[CptPugwash]

I'm looking at putting a couple of teams aimed at the golden boot, not sure yet what formation to start with. That will probably boil down to how much the defenders cost.
Are there any thoughts out there as to which defenders might sneak a goal?
I've decided I prefer Giroud over both Griezmann & M'bappe. That clearly puts me in a minority, the only issue is I have a slight doubt about him starting the first game. Are there any french experts out there who can put my mind at rest, or am i right to doubt it?

[hancockjr]

I'm looking at putting a couple of teams aimed at the golden boot, not sure yet what formation to start with. That will probably boil down to how much the defenders cost.
Are there any thoughts out there as to which defenders might sneak a goal?
I've decided I prefer Giroud over both Griezmann & M'bappe. That clearly puts me in a minority, the only issue is I have a slight doubt about him starting the first game. Are there any french experts out there who can put my mind at rest, or am i right to doubt it?

Kolarov

[CptPugwash]

I'm going to digress temporarily from TFF to air my thoughts on FIFA.
First thing to decide is when to plan to play the wildcard. a) after the 1st round, b) after the 2nd round, c) keep for the K.O.s
I for one, have found it extremely difficult to plan a team to get through the group games without the wildcard, so i'm basing my team on the expectation of wildcarding after round 2.
Probably the best GK combination for the 1st 2 games is Uruguay/Belgium, but only slightly inferior is Russia/England saving a huge 1m. THE big question - is Pickford nailed on?

[CptPugwash]

Part 2 of my FIFA musings.

Going with defenders from 5 teams that look to have a good chance of at least 1 clean sheet over the 2 games.
Kutepov (RUS) 4.5 - all likely starting defenders priced the same - don't have a clue which is the best option.
Godin (URU) 5.5 - Cpt & set piece threat
Sidibe (FRA) 5.5 - Fullbacks priced cheaper than centre-halves - hoping to have picked the right 1.
Meunier (BEL) 6.0 - Had to play safe & upgrade with Vermaelen being a doubt
Cahill (ENG) 5.0 - Bit Risky, but i'm assuming the team v Nigeria is the probable starting team. Cheaper then every other defender who started that day.

Forwards.
Struggling to squeeze any premium strikers, instead based my team on having multiple decent captain options.
Smolov (RUS) 8.0 - day 1 cpt
Cavani (URU) 9.5 - would prefer him to Suarez at the same price, 1M less is huge at this game. day 2 cpt
Mbappe (FRA) 9.0 - 1M less than Griezmann who i expect to play behind a front 2, would be a difficult choice for the same price as Giroud but at least he's a certain starter, day 3 cpt.

Midfielders
Coutinho (BRA) 9.0 - I think my doubts about him starting have been put to rest, if i needed the .5M i could downgrade him to William. day 4 cpt.
KDB (BEL) 10.0 - My luxury player, desperate for an attacking player from England or Belgium, and every other top option is classed as a forward. day 5 cpt
That left 17.5m to squeeze in my last 3 midfielders.
Ziyach (MOR) 7.0 - Morrocco's star player, opening game v Iran
Kostic (SER) 6.0 - hoping h'e the value in the Serbia team. If England B can beat Costa Rica, there should be opportunities.
A Ndiaye (SEN) 4.5 - I can afford him, & he should start.

Chips.
Bench boost - fairly sure i'm playing this round 1. My squad has better fixtures round 1 over round 2. Round 3 has some attractive looking fixtures, but even after a wildcard i wouldn't be confident of getting 4 playing subs.
Captain - either semis or final. Quite frankly that's a no-brainer.

[PEDRO2001]

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[CptPugwash]

Firstly, great post pugwash incredible thankyou so much. So what is the perfect XG CSR team to play assuming all players start?

Im going with this,

AKINFEEV

FERNANDES
GRANAT
KUDRYASHOV
IGNASHEVICH

DI MARIA
ERIKSEN
MULLER

GRIEZMANN
SMOLOV
SUAREZ

First off it's going to be a big surprise if 4 listed Russian defenders play, so make sure you're around when the Russian team is announced.
TBH I haven't even considered Di Maria.
Eriksen is one of those rare breed of players with >50% expectation of being involved in a goal. Australia 2nd up looks very attractive, the only thing that's putting me slightly off is I think Peru will be tough opposition, possibly even the 2nd best South American team.
Muller should be a no brainer for an Xg team. However Low is nothing if not unpredictable, the only player 99% certain to start in the front 6 is Kroos,and as CDM that's not much use. Muller is probably the 2nd most certain of the front 6, but with that nagging doubt i'm going to wait for the team news, before i transfer in a German.
Smolov wouldn't come near a maximum Xg team, but for me he's a no-brainer for the Ronaldo switch.
Personally I prefer Cavani to Suarez, but that choice will divide opinions. They both have a pretty good Xg over the first 2 games. and again either is handy for the switch to a spanish striker.
France have the 2nd highest Xg for the opening game (behind Belgium), so having a French forward seems sensible. IF Giroud starts, I expect France to line-up 4-3-1-2, with Griezmann in the hole. In that case Giroud > Mbappe > Griezmann for Xg, but Griezmann would have the highest expectation for assists. You pay your money & take your choice here.

20/06 Change Smolov to Ronaldo

well that's a change I have planned for 15 out of 15 teams.
TBH that's the last attacking change I have fixed - the rest are playing it by ear.

22/06 Change Block defence all 5 to Belgium keep for 2 games

After that Im stumped!

Surely if you are switching to a Belgium block it wants to be for the first game against Panama.
After that it should be a choice of
a) Keeping for all 3 games
b) Switching to Germany after game 2.
c) switching to whichever group H block that tickles your fancy.

[grunny92]

Thanks CptPugwash for all this! Doing a work league, only 1 entry and at the moment going with 5-3-2 with FRA/URU 3-3.

Dont trust Russia defence and not sure want to load up on 1 team. Also from the teams in my league nobody else is considering a block strategy.

When would you switch the defence? I think both Fra and Uru have decent chances of CS in their first 2 matches but does it make sense at all to keep the back 6 the same for both 2 rounds then switch to either Brazil and Germany (risk of 3rd match rotation), Belgium or Group H.

Current starting XI

Muslera
Godin, Gimenez, Varane, Sidibe, Mendy
Hazard, Eriksen, Samedov
Smolov, Cavani

[CptPugwash]

Thanks CptPugwash for all this! Doing a work league, only 1 entry and at the moment going with 5-3-2 with FRA/URU 3-3.

Dont trust Russia defence and not sure want to load up on 1 team. Also from the teams in my league nobody else is considering a block strategy.

When would you switch the defence? I think both Fra and Uru have decent chances of CS in their first 2 matches but does it make sense at all to keep the back 6 the same for both 2 rounds then switch to either Brazil and Germany (risk of 3rd match rotation), Belgium or Group H.

Current starting XI

Muslera
Godin, Gimenez, Varane, Sidibe, Mendy
Hazard, Eriksen, Samedov
Smolov, Cavani

Well that's the exact same XI as one of my teams - so i hope it goes well for you.
Uruguay defenders have to be kept for the 2nd game. Then the plan is to switch probably to Spain, Germany being the fallback. However if Russia are as pants as many people expect you can keep for the 3rd game & then possibly switch to a known final semi-block.
For France i'm assessing the Denmark - Peru game. The choice is keep for 2 then switch to Germany/Brazil or an immediate switch to Belgium.

[PEDRO2001]

.

[PEDRO2001]

This is the best option actually isnt it:

Fra (Aus) switching to Bel (Pan & Tun) switching to Ger (Swe & SK)
.
As you have an expensive defence to start which makes transfer easier going forward. Again not too sure about Germany vs Sweden.

Best clean sheet options look like

France defence vs Aus
Change to Argentina defence vs Iceland (5 transfers)
Change to Belgium defence vs Panama and Tunisia (5 transfers)
Change to Spain defence vs Morocco (5 transfers)

Leaves you with 7 transfers for Mid and Att

After the group stage do you get to reset your team or do you have to use your 22 transfers to change your team to ensure you have all starters for the knockouts?

[PEDRO2001]

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[PEDRO2001]

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[CptPugwash]

This is the best option actually isnt it:

Fra (Aus) switching to Bel (Pan & Tun) switching to Ger (Swe & SK)
.
As you have an expensive defence to start which makes transfer easier going forward. Again not too sure about Germany vs Sweden.

Yup that is theoretically the joint best double block transfer option, one i'll almost certainly be following in at least 1 team.
One thing going for it is that it looks like the opening French back is nailed on - famous last words.
However the 4th Belgium defender may well change between game 1 & game 2, and if Germany blitz their 1st games, there will rotation worries for the 3rd.

Best clean sheet options look like

France defence vs Aus
Change to Argentina defence vs Iceland (5 transfers)
Change to Belgium defence vs Panama and Tunisia (5 transfers)
Change to Spain defence vs Morocco (5 transfers)

Leaves you with 7 transfers for Mid and Att

Personally I wouldn't touch that sequence with a barge pole - i hate backward transfers especially defensive ones.

After the group stage do you get to reset your team or do you have to use your 22 transfers to change your team to ensure you have all starters for the knockouts?

It's a free reset

If you are going Uruguay Varela is a must, only 2.2m and you could probably leave him there the whole tournie!

Here is what I am going with now:

Loris
Varela (enabler should be good for tournie) , Sidibe, Mendy, Varane
Hazard, Di Maria, Eriksen
Suarez, Greizman, Smolov

Will use 4 transfers to change FRA DEF/GOA to BEL on the 18/06
Will use 1 transfer to change Smolov to Ronaldo on the 20/06
Will use 4 transfers to change BEL DEF/GOA to GER on the 23/06

Other changes in the think tank.

Normally i would say that if you want a enabling defender in a block team you should at least start 5-3-2. However given the issue over the 4th Belgium defender & rotation risks with the German block an exception could be made here. Personally i still prefer my enabler in midfield.

Another option (should we just not start with the russian starting X1) that way guaranteed to know the team and get an extra game for every position without any transfers.

Even for my 11 Russians is a bit excessive, I'm going with 6 in about 6 teams & 5 in another 4.

Will you be posting your transfers in here pugwash as you seem to talk a lot of sense

I expect to post all my transfers. Time permitting in advance of the games

[grunny92]

France back not nailed, Sidibe and Umtiti both doubts. Also not 100% sure Mendy starts

https://www.101greatgoals.com/news/seve ... australia/

https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/12499 ... -Australia

[CptPugwash]

Quick Diversion for my musings on Dream Team, starting with what I consider to be the main issues.

1. No Reset after group games.
Apart from obviously wanting to finish the group stage with as many qualified players as possible, its very advantageous to have them in the best KO games.
There is a temptation to transfer players down the groups, but given that the 1st 4 Last 16 games are between teams from Group A-D, ideally you would like to have these games well covered.
The winners of Group C (& the runner-up from Group D) play the first KO game, and if they advance continue to do so. Which means if they win all well & good, if they lose you still have every other game to pick from, for your transfers.
That's why all my teams will either be well covered from France, or have a contingency plan to bring them in.
Winner of Group A v Runner up Group B is 2nd up, expected to be (Uruguay v Portugal) - ideally i'd like 1 of each here
The winners of the 3rd & 4th L16 games (Winner B v Runner up A) & (Winner D v Runner up C) meet in the 3rd QF - which means there is an opportunity to get 2 games out of a transfer before transferring back. Again all my teams should be well covered by Spain by the end of the group phase.

2. No Same day Transfers.
This is big for those that don't plan. A lot of the transfers we're likely to make in TFF are not available in DT.
For example Uruguay Spain & Belgium Germany in round 2.
If you want players for Uruguay v Saudi Arabia, Portugal v Morocco or Spain v Iran. The choice is 3-fold Start & Keep, Backward Transfers or Russia ?
The third option is compounded by the fact that of the 2 listed Russian defenders, 1 didn't make the squad & the other isn't likely to start!!!

[CptPugwash]

France back not nailed, Sidibe and Umtiti both doubts. Also not 100% sure Mendy starts

https://www.101greatgoals.com/news/seve ... australia/

https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/12499 ... -Australia

Bloody hell - is there a single predictable defence out there?

[ragamuffin]

Quick Diversion for my musings on Dream Team, starting with what I consider to be the main issues.

1. No Reset after group games.
Apart from obviously wanting to finish the group stage with as many qualified players as possible, its very advantageous to have them in the best KO games.
There is a temptation to transfer players down the groups, but given that the 1st 4 Last 16 games are between teams from Group A-D, ideally you would like to have these games well covered.
The winners of Group C (& the runner-up from Group D) play the first KO game, and if they advance continue to do so. Which means if they win all well & good, if they lose you still have every other game to pick from, for your transfers.
That's why all my teams will either be well covered from France, or have a contingency plan to bring them in.
Winner of Group A v Runner up Group B is 2nd up, expected to be (Uruguay v Portugal) - ideally i'd like 1 of each here
The winners of the 3rd & 4th L16 games (Winner B v Runner up A) & (Winner D v Runner up C) meet in the 3rd QF - which means there is an opportunity to get 2 games out of a transfer before transferring back. Again all my teams should be well covered by Spain by the end of the group phase.

2. No Same day Transfers.
This is big for those that don't plan. A lot of the transfers we're likely to make in TFF are not available in DT.
For example Uruguay Spain & Belgium Germany in round 2.
If you want players for Uruguay v Saudi Arabia, Portugal v Morocco or Spain v Iran. The choice is 3-fold Start & Keep, Backward Transfers or Russia ?
The third option is compounded by the fact that of the 2 listed Russian defenders, 1 didn't make the squad & the other isn't likely to start!!!

How many teams you entering cptn and you going to be covering off those in the blog too?

[PEDRO2001]

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