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CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

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itslikebrandnew
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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by itslikebrandnew »

robot wrote: 26 Jun 2018, 18:45
johnmc wrote: 26 Jun 2018, 18:07
robot wrote: 25 Jun 2018, 16:05

Biggest bonus for me was realising I'd missread the rules and thought the prize was group phase not knockout :roll: so all to do again on friday!
OMG I thought the same. :oops: :oops:
There's me thinking that I'm in with a chance, too. :roll:
I thought it was strange, that I was so near the top of the Leaderboard. :lol:
So if I'm not the only one :D are we just idiots or did they change the initial rules?
I hate to say it but it's always been knockout phase :lol:

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by johnmc »

:oops: :oops: :lol:

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CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by sarllm »

Apologies for my stupidness...transfer amnesty after group stages? Can we effectively pick a new 11 (free of charge) or should we plan to keep players playing first rather than last in the round of 16?

I’m only a single entrant trying to win a super league....280 points, 3 transfers left

Much love


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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by Striker »

robot wrote: 26 Jun 2018, 18:45
johnmc wrote: 26 Jun 2018, 18:07
robot wrote: 25 Jun 2018, 16:05

Biggest bonus for me was realising I'd missread the rules and thought the prize was group phase not knockout :roll: so all to do again on friday!
OMG I thought the same. :oops: :oops:
There's me thinking that I'm in with a chance, too. :roll:
I thought it was strange, that I was so near the top of the Leaderboard. :lol:
So if I'm not the only one :D are we just idiots or did they change the initial rules?

Do you really want us to answer that question. :wink:

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by robot »

sarllm wrote: 26 Jun 2018, 23:55 Apologies for my stupidness...transfer amnesty after group stages? Can we effectively pick a new 11 (free of charge) or should we plan to keep players playing first rather than last in the round of 16?

I’m only a single entrant trying to win a super league....280 points, 3 transfers left
Much love


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There is an amnesty so yes start again effectively, thankfully I read that bit of the rules correctly!

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by ragamuffin »

Hi Cpt have you devised a plan on the Knockout phase and ways to approach?

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by CptPugwash »

ragamuffin wrote: 27 Jun 2018, 10:54 Hi Cpt have you devised a plan on the Knockout phase and ways to approach?
Absolutely - assuming it's a team not in a mini-league you have 1 of 4 (possibly 2 of 4) targets, depending on that is how to start to plan the team.

a) Are you near the top of the leaderboard?
b) Are you within a couple of surprise K.O. results of joining the top of the leaderboard?
c) Are you within touching distance of the Golden Boot.
d) Have you nothing left to play for but the K.O. prize.

The second part of the plan is what's your view on clean sheet opportunities in the KO phase. i.e. are we going mainly defensive block switches or forward switches?

You can start the plan now, by the end of the day it should be much much clearer. Which part of the draw are Germany & Brazil in (if they qualify).

If you are an A) I think you should be playing relatively safe - take the obvious choices at least to start - unless you have multiple entries at the top.
If you are B) you need to identify where to go out on a limb.
D) falls somewhere between A) & B)

Whatever route you go, IMO you should load up on the first 6 matches of the KO phase.
FRA v ARG is up first and the winner continues to be so, so it needs a backward transfer to bring these players in.
POR v URU. The only non-backward opportunity to transfer in is after the first KO game.

ESP v RUS (Edit incorectly DEN) & CRO v DEN - These are the opportunities to transfer out & back in & get 2 matches for the cost of the 2 transfers. As the winners of game 5 & game 6 play twice before they play again.

Win G v Run Up H & Win F & Run Up E - Not as good to start with as the first 4, but at least there are transfer out options afterwards.

Win F v Run Up E & Win H v Run Up G - These should be avoided unless you have a strong view on which team will reach the semis.
Last edited by CptPugwash on 27 Jun 2018, 19:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by ragamuffin »

CptPugwash wrote: 27 Jun 2018, 14:54
ragamuffin wrote: 27 Jun 2018, 10:54 Hi Cpt have you devised a plan on the Knockout phase and ways to approach?
Absolutely - assuming it's a team not in a mini-league you have 1 of 4 (possibly 2 of 4) targets, depending on that is how to start to plan the team.

a) Are you near the top of the leaderboard?
b) Are you within a couple of surprise K.O. results of joining the top of the leaderboard?
c) Are you within touching distance of the Golden Boot.
d) Have you nothing left to play for but the K.O. prize.

The second part of the plan is what's your view on clean sheet opportunities in the KO phase. i.e. are we going mainly defensive block switches or forward switches?

You can start the plan now, by the end of the day it should be much much clearer. Which part of the draw are Germany & Brazil in (if they qualify).

If you are an A) I think you should be playing relatively safe - take the obvious choices at least to start - unless you have multiple entries at the top.
If you are B) you need to identify where to go out on a limb.
D) falls somewhere between A) & B)

Whatever route you go, IMO you should load up on the first 6 matches of the KO phase.
FRA v ARG is up first and the winner continues to be so, so it needs a backward transfer to bring these players in.
POR v URU. The only non-backward opportunity to transfer in is after the first KO game.

ESP v DEN & CRO v DEN - These are the opportunities to transfer out & back in & get 2 matches for the cost of the 2 transfers. As the winners of game 5 & game 6 play twice before they play again.

Win G v Run Up H & Win F & Run Up E - Not as good to start with as the first 4, but at least there are transfer out options afterwards.

Win F v Run Up E & Win H v Run Up G - These should be avoided unless you have a strong view on which team will reach the semis.
Thanks Cpt for the analysis – BIG help! I am firmly in D just the KO prize to play for.

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by CptPugwash »

I'm like the short stack at Poker & i've made my move.

All in on the Swiss defence - 14 Teams out of 15 (The other 1 was aleady a brazillian semi)

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by skiffer »

Anyone knocked up on of those excel charts showing the schedule of the KO?


What do you mean backwards transfers?

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by robot »

skiffer wrote: 27 Jun 2018, 20:38 Anyone knocked up on of those excel charts showing the schedule of the KO?


What do you mean backwards transfers?
you have Ronaldo round of 16, you then put messi in for quarter finals you get ronaldo *1 plus messi by max 3 =4 = backwards (no different to keeping Ronaldo)
you have Ronaldo round of 16, you then put in Neymar for round of 16 you get ronaldo *1 plus Neymar by max 4 =5 Progressive.

Basically any transfer that is not to a team with more potential games remaining.
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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by robgraham »

Thanks, Pugwash, for the good early analysis in this thread. One of my six teams is currently in 11th overall, having followed one of the ‘ideal’ triple block switching strategies of Russia-Uruguay-Uruguay-Spain-Brazil-Brazil. Missed out on a couple of the big striker returns (Ronaldo hat trick etc,) through prioritising the defensive switches over too many striker transfers. But obviously happy with this strategy and seems to be the right balance (ie unlikely a double-block-switch or quadruple-block-switch would have done any better overall).
Now looking at options for block switches in the knockouts. Spain-Brazil-Brazil-Spain looks like a decent start but would be interested in your stats. And I don’t necessarily see Spain making it through to the final.
RG

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by Jameselaprendi »

Almost better if they don’t

If they lose their semi in a 0-0 draw especially

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by robgraham »

Jameselaprendi wrote:Almost better if they don’t

If they lose their semi in a 0-0 draw especially
How so?

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by CptPugwash »

This is going to be very hard to plan.

I can't think there are going to be very many one-sided quarter finals. So in theory the best plan would appear to be to chase points in the last 16. However, that comes with a bit of a risk, not having enough transfers to make sure you have 11 starters in the semis.

If I was near the top i'd probably go the conservative Spain :arrow: Brazil in the last 16. However that's a switch that i'd expect a lot of the top of the leaderboard to be planning

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by skiffer »

So what starting line up?

Are the points opportunities going to be in defence, tight games.

Pick a few players who look good for holding until the semi and then rotating wing backs in the early games?

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by zipnolan »

I'm sure this has been covered elsewhere, so apologies for asking it here.

What rules are being applied for (1) penalty shoot outs - do goals / saves count? (2) clean sheets in extra time games - does a side have to play 120 minutes goalless to get a bonus?

I think the answers are that penalties in shoot-outs don't count, and that clean sheets have to be for the full duration of the match, no matter how long it is. But I can't find it in the terms and conditions. Obviously changes strategic considerations quite a bit.

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Pointless

Post by SamD »

In answer to both queries:

"Points are not awarded for penalty shoot outs.

Clean sheet bonuses:
In order to earn a Full Clean Sheet bonus (5 pts), your player must complete at least 60 minutes of the match and his team must keep a clean sheet for the entire match (excluding penalty shoot-outs)."

Source: https://fantasyfootball.telegraph.co.uk ... /icthegame

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by zipnolan »

OK, thanks Sam, it's as I thought (just missed it).

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by Ganzo »

skiffer wrote: 27 Jun 2018, 20:38 Anyone knocked up on of those excel charts showing the schedule of the KO?
Here's my effort. It not as compact as others, but I find it easier to read.
2018-06-28 14_24_10-WC2018 KO - Excel.png
This is my first attempt at posting an image, so I'm not sure how well it will work...
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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by Vesalius73 »

Well, I have ended up with a team within the top 120 and another in the top 500 so reading this thread in next 24 hours will be very very interesting and helpful. I live in hope

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by Ganzo »

Now that the group stage is over, the most obvious way to get 6 games from a position seems to be Spain to start, switch to Brazil for 2nd round and QF (taking advantage of the 2-for-0, then revert back to Spain for their QF (or pick out the Victor in game 60 from Sweden, Switzerland, Columbia, England.

Hopefully you will pick right and ride them to the final, or at least someone who won't be rested for the 3rd place playoff.

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by PEDRO2001 »

Best defensive block looks like Spain to Brazil and Belgium now. The other factor is if Spain qualify do you really want to start shipping them out with potentially another decent tie in the next round? If Spain keep a clean sheet then you prob want to keep them and change the Spain attack to Brazil, and then keep them if they stay in, or ditch them to Belgium if they go out.

I will start with the spain X1 going into game one(predict as best as possible) (possibly with Ronaldo as an outlier included). Then go to Brazil attackers/Belgium attackers

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by robot »

A lot of thought needed tomorrow, a few points on the above comments, the 2-0 are not really 2-0 they are just using a transfer, however you plan your changes 64 games is the most you can get regardless of the perceived extra games. Albeit Brazil/ belgium look like obvious moves anyway.

Picking an xi is just guaranteeing a load of 2 pointers, I would only ever go 8 max from 1 team unless it's the final.

Moving on from a knocked out team is obvious but also means you have failed, the ideal is to move on from a clean sheet winning team that is about to get knocked out in the next round.

It's obviously going to come down to how many clean sheets there are and getting the balance right on how many block changes to make out of the twenty (1/2/3 or 4), ending up with a team that avoids striker vs defender also important and a bit more thought into budget now that less budget options are available.

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by CptPugwash »

Analysis of the K.O. Stage.
Part 1 - By quarter
L16 1&2 First Quarter; First Semi.
FRA, ARG, URU, POR.
Before the world cup kicked off I would have had France odds on to reach the semis from here. Now I think this is a very even quarter.
France haven't looked good, but even if they score against an Argentinian defence, yet to keep a clean sheet, there doesn't appear to be an obvious attacking French pick. I do still think they will have too much for Argentina, but Messi will still have the best Xg in the game.
Portugal scored 1 against Morocco and 1 against Iran, which hardly inspires against the much better Uruguayan defence. At the other end Uruguay have hardly pulled up trees when playing against 11 men. I can't see both teams scoring so starting with the right block maybe a good differential if needed. If you do fancy a Uruguayan striker it's the age old question, Suarez playing higher up, or the far more impressive Cavani.
PREDICTION FRA 2-1 ARG; URU 0-1 POR

L16 3&4 Third Quarter; Second Semi.
ESP, RUS, CRO, DEN.
This would be a big surprise to me if it didn't lead to a Spain v Croatia quarter final.
Lots of speculation about a Spanish block. On the face of it Spain are big favourites, but, Spain conceded 5 in the groups and Russia scored 8 in the 2 games they managed to keep 11 payers on the pitch. Denmark are very lucky to get this far, and Croatia have been impressive. The only question here is it worth having Eriksen as coverage. Probably yes if going without Croat defenders, but i won't be in most teams.
PREDICTION ESP 3-1 RUS; CRO 3-0 DEN

L16 5&6 Second Quarter; First Semi.
BRA, MEX, BEL, JAP.
On the face of it the 2 most 1-sided games have fallen in the same quarter.
Mexico looked good against Germany, not so good in their next 2, and it turned out beating Germany wasn't as impressive as it first appeared. Brazil have looked very good in parts, only conceding 1, and rightly the bookies favourites in an underwhelming world cup.
Belgium's 1st XI scored 8 in 2 games, Japan have got this far because they played against 10 men for 90 minutes. Expect Lukaku to try to fill his golden boots.
PREDICTION BRA 3-0 MEX; BEL 4-0 JAP

L16 7&8 Fourth Quarter; Second Semi
SWE, SUI, COL, ENG.
A great opportunity for all 4 teams.
I can't separate Sweden & Switzerland, & given the winners are likely to be the underdogs in every match going forwards, and probably the only transfer i'd want to make afterwards is to Kane. I won't be going near this match.
Like Belgium, England 1st XI banged in 8 in 2 games. Colombia should be a step up, but with or without a half fit inspirational Rodriguez, England should win, even if they have been unable to keep a clean sheet.
PREDICTION SWE 1-2(AET) SUI; ENG 2-1 COL

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by ChrisD »

Cheers for all your work on this Captain, invaluable. I agree with your summary of most of this, thinking I'm going to go Croatia rather than Spain for the initial block. Spain haven't looked great at the back. If it works I gain. If not I look stupid. Not the first time.

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by CptPugwash »

Part 2.

Strategy, Formation, Blocks, Enablers & Transfers.

Let's exclude Goal attempts from the thinking for now.

TRANSFER PLAN
First form a Plan for the transfers. 20 Transfers for 16 Games - that's a lot. I break that down into 3 groups; planned defensive before the semis, planned offensive before the semi's, & contingency. If you don't use the contingency transfers all well & good they become bonus transfers to use after the first semi.
For example a planned single block may well be 5,10,5, a planned double block may be 10,6,4.
As another example starting with Griezmann & Messi, as a minimum transferring 1 out after the first game must be a planned transfer.
On the other hand going into Brazil with Mexico with the expectation of Neymar remaining in the team, and watching him limp off/red-carded/knocked out needs a contingency replacement.

MONEY MONEY MONEY
Money is tight, very tight. Plan for upgrades. As an example I've had a look at a typical team that a lot of people might want going into the Brazil game.
Alisson - Silva; Miranda; Fagner; Luis - Coutinho; ?; ? - Neymarr; Griezmann; Ronaldo - that leaves 7m for the 2 midfield slots, about 1 million less, if either of the first choice fullbacks are playing. Even less if Messi is still batting rather Griezmann, a bit more if Suarez/Cavani rather than Ronaldo.
So what are the options in order to have a Brazilian block.
1. 2 cheap midfielders or at the very least 1 dirt cheap midfielder.
2. Only keeping 1 striker from the first quarter.
3. Jesus over Neymar (.4m saving)
4. Downgrading Coutinho (Willian .7, Paulinho 1.0, Casemiro 1.8)
5. 5-3-2/4-4-2
6. Downgrading your first quarter strikers (Mbappe or Giroud over Griezmann) (Aguerro or Higuain over Messi)
None of the above are particularly appealing to me, and it may well need more than 1 of the above. My choices would probably be downgrading Griezmann & Coutinho)
Note whatever option is chosen, you are almost certainly going to want to have the funds to have Hazard & Lukaku next up.

TBC

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by CptPugwash »

Part 2 continued.

ENABLERS
Hard to see getting by without any form of enabler. Even 5-3-2's or sticking with cheap blocks will probably need some form of enabler.

1. The 2M write off. Missing out on possibly 8pts worth of appearance - so everything else better be right.

2. The optimistic cheappie. Russians lead the way here Cheryshev (2.6) Zobnin (2.4) Gavinsky (2.2) Probably only 1 game out of them, but hard to believe not worth the upgrade from a write-off

3. 2pt generators. Players you hope to go a long way, should start every game, but with limited attacking potential.
Casemero BRA 3.7; Kante FRA 3.8; Busquets SPA 3.8 look to be the most obvious choices here.

4. Possible (not so)hidden gems.
These are nearly all (if not all) falling in the bottom quarter.
Quintero COL 3.7; Claesson SWE 2.9; Dzemaili SWI 3.8; Lingard ENG 3.3; Zuber SWI 3.0; RLC ENG 3.0
One of these teams is getting 4 games - so pick the right one and it's a good start. The stand out would appear to be Lingard.

5. The striker Enabler.
Hard to find, it's nearly always better to change the formation (433 to 442 or 343 to 352) and put in a midfield enabler instead. However possible choices could be.
Dzyuba RUS 3.9; Berg SWE 4.4; Lozano MEX 3.8 (for the anti-brazillians); Rebic CRO 3.1
Rebic looks the best to me - assuming he starts.


Let me know if there's anything missing from the list.

TBC

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

Great thread.

My brain's not working today (or any other day for that matter). What would be an example (now we know the order of the fixtures) of the 5,10,5 and 10,6,4 in terms of transfers? Or what do you mean by single/double block, is it for eg Spain and France to start then move to Brazil and Belgium or is it start with Spain, move to Brazil then move back to Spain. (as in a double-back switch)?

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Re: CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

Post by zipnolan »

Sutter Kane wrote: 29 Jun 2018, 13:48 Great thread.

My brain's not working today (or any other day for that matter). What would be an example (now we know the order of the fixtures) of the 5,10,5 and 10,6,4 in terms of transfers? Or what do you mean by single/double block, is it for eg Spain and France to start then move to Brazil and Belgium or is it start with Spain, move to Brazil then move back to Spain. (as in a double-back switch)?
As I understand it (5,10,5) means:

Before semis have two blocks of 5 defenders (e.g Spain, Brazil) and use 5 transfers to move the block.
10 transfers to daisy-chain non-defenders (or, as CP would put it, to make forward transfers, the assumption being that you start with earlier players)
Leaving 5 transfers contingency when everything turns to shit.

I think you are right about 10, 6, 4. Two block changes, fewer forward transfers of non-defenders, less contingency.

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