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Where is the value between the posts?

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skiffer
Red & Blue Braces
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Where is the value between the posts?

Post by skiffer »

Single team, I always go top money and there always ends up far better value.

Where is the PPM this year?

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murf
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Re: Where is the value between the posts?

Post by murf »

Not looked at prices but Allison and DdG will be the first 2 I look at. City kept enough CSs too. And Spurs. Chelsea and Arsenal more dodgy.

Donut
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Re: Where is the value between the posts?

Post by Donut »

Gk s seem relatively more expensive than defenders given the obvious lack of attacking returns. Not sure there is any obvious value- ??watford

mindcrush
Kevin and Perry
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Joined: 02 Jul 2018, 10:59

Re: Where is the value between the posts?

Post by mindcrush »

skiffer wrote: 03 Aug 2018, 21:00 Single team, I always go top money and there always ends up far better value.

Where is the PPM this year?

Going by last season's stats:

----------------
Premium GKs
----------------
De Gea (MNU) - £4.0m - 41.25 PP£m - 37 games played
Ederson (MNC) - £3.9m - 40 PP£m - 36 games played
Courtois (CHE) - £3.8m - 35.53 PP£m - 35 games played
Alisson (LIV) - £3.7m - ???*
Lloris (TOT) - £3.7m - 36.49 PP£m - 36 games played

I would expect some improvement from Chelsea this season defensively but this gives an idea of relative value (albeit in a somewhat reductive manner) for each keeper. DDG, Ederson and potentially Alisson all represent very good value and are worth the investment, as their return on PP£m is higher than any player I have profiled except for Salah, Alonso and Azpillacueta.

*Note that if you add the points up for Karius and Mignolet last season and calculate PP£m using that score Alisson would be looking at a figure of 41.08.

----------------
Mid Tier GKs
---------------
Pickford (EVE) - £3.4m - 30 PP£m - 38 games played
Schmeichel (LEI) - £3.3m - 29.09 PP£m - 33 games played
Leno (ARS) - £3.3m - ???
Pope/Heaton (BUR) - £3.2m - 38.75 PP£m - 35 games played*

Really the only value to be had here is in whoever the Burnley keeper is and potentially Leno if he nails down a spot ahead of Cech. Schmeichel having the least games of any in the top and mid tiers may skew is results but I doubt by enough to see it increase to a level commensurate with his price.

*Based on Pope's stats from last season. With him down for a while though, you would expect Heaton at the same price to see similar results if fit himself.

--------------
Budget GKs
--------------
Dubravka (NEW) - £3.0m - ??? - 12 games played*
Ryan (BHA) - £2.9m - 37.93 PP£m - 38 games played
Fabianski (WHU) - £2.9m - 36.90 PP£m - 38 games played**
Lossl (HUD) - £2.8m - 38.57 PP£m - 38 games played
Foster (WAT) - £2.8m - 36.79 PP£m - 37 games played**

There is more potential return on investment at these prices than in the mid-tier but will have to go through more highs and lows over the course of a season than with a keeper at a top 6 club. Foster and Fabianki I don't think play as many games at their new clubs with better competition so it is harder to pick them with complete confidence.

*Dubravka's low sample size made PP£m a worthless statistical to calculate in isolation but taking his points in those 12 games and extrapolating them out to 36 games (an average for the rest of the GKs listed in all three tiers) you would be looking at 138 points (just above Courtois and Lloris) with a PP£m of 46. Obviously that is taken from a very small amount of data though so take that with a large pinch of salt.

**Games played at former teams (Swansea for Fabianski and West Brom for Foster).


Overall, I think there is value to be had at the top prices and budget end and less so for the mid tier (and obviously there is also the option of going with a promoted GK like Patricio) but I think the very best value is in De Gea and Ederson. Both will score high points totals but also be very good value for the points spent. With few exceptioms, GK is the position most worth investing in in terms of potential returns. An outside shout is definitely Dubravka for a team that conceded less goals than Arsenal last season (but also kept less clean sheets than relegated West Brom) but I would certainly wait out their opening run of fixtures before putting him in.

Donut wrote: Gk s seem relatively more expensive than defenders given the obvious lack of attacking returns. Not sure there is any obvious value- ??watford

I don't necessarily believe this to be the case, as I believe GKs are priced to compensate for this. Of the top 10 point scoring DFs from 17/18 only 3 are cheaper than Dea Gea and only 1 (Trippier) is cheaper than Ederson. However, only Alonso (£4.3m at 42.79 PP£m) and Azillacueta (£4.4m at 41.82 PP£m) topped Ederson's 40 PP£m. Add to that the fact that only 3 of the 10 (Alonso, Azpillacueta and Otamendi) played 33 or more games (the lowest amount of games played by any of the GKs listed excluding Dubravka and the keepers new to the league) and only 1 (Azpillacueta) played 36 or more (the average for GKs listed) and you can see the risk of rotation and/or attrition based on suspension and injury is higher with outfield players, leaving you either fielding a 0 some weeks or spending another resource in transfers.
Even looking to mid tier and budget options, only 1 DF at or under £3.2m scored over 100 points and none under £3.0 managed it, whereas 5 GKs at or under £3.2 managed the feat, with 4 costing less than £3.0.

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murf
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Re: Where is the value between the posts?

Post by murf »

Donut wrote:Gk s seem relatively more expensive than defenders given the obvious lack of attacking returns. Not sure there is any obvious value- ??watford
Not sure I agree on this. The better defenders are expensive and those at top clubs below that level are not reliable starters. Some may emerge later but not yet.

Lesser clubs have equally cheap keepers and reliable defenders.

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