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Streaming Defenders

FPL Draft format starting in 2017/18
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Talkie Toaster
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Streaming Defenders

Post by Talkie Toaster »

This article posted on FFS might be of interest:
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... t-leagues/

The general idea is that you don't draft any defenders at all until the end of the draft, so while your rival managers are using early picks on premium and high value defenders you are mopping up the attacking players. Then every GW you go into the free agent pool to put together a back line of regular starters with favourable fixtures.

The theory is that because there are more defenders than any other position there should be enough free agents to assemble a decent defence every week.

I suppose this could be viewed as the draft equivalent of picking a CRD over a premium defender and using the cash saved on an attacker in the regular game.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Talkie Toaster »

I can see that this strategy could work if only 1 or 2 managers in a league are using it.
Even if everyone in the league uses it you'd be ok because all of the premium defenders will be left until the end by everyone. The strategy will effectively be neutralised, but no harm done.

I'm not sure how it would fare though if the number of managers streaming and non-streaming are more even though. For instance if you have 4 streaming managers and say 3 fixtures where you can say that a team has a clear advantage, then there will be 12-15 target defenders and 4 managers trying to fill 12 slots, so it is only just viable. And that's assuming that none of those defenders are already in the non-streamers teams.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Mav3rick »

Looks like a reasonable strategy to me. Even ignoring the concepts of VORP, the basic FPL folklore is that defenders benefit more from rotation so if I have a (more or less) free choice to rotate my defenders then why not.

However, there's nothing really stopping people who have drafted the Alonso's and Bellerin's of this world from doing the same anyway so are we potentially looking at even the dregs of the streaming market, if we assume we're leading a league and thus getting lower priority waivers?

I mean, I take the point that I only need three defenders each week, but if the top 35 are drafted anyway and then waivers take another 7 of the best that week from me, it seems like the player pool would be quite small. I'm not sure I'd like to have to stream three defenders each week under those circumstances, maybe there's a balance element.

The idea of prioritising the strikers is obvious when you think about it but wasn't something I'd really thought about.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Talkie Toaster »

The strategy does seem to assume that your opponents aren't going to do anything awkward like taking your target defenders from the pool, even if they don't plan to use them, just to block you from having them.

If I've understood the process correctly though only new players and the players which have previously been picked and then released can be picked during waivers. As we're going after the free agents we'll have the same chance as everybody else to get them in the free for all free-agency bunfight afterwards regardless of our league position.

I'd probably tweak the proposed draft order a bit though. I'm not sure I'd prioritise a non-playing F3/M5 over GK1 if a good GK was available in round 8 and I'd move my pick for D1 up a slot or 2 if it would get me someone from a top 6/7 team that would be good for just about every week. That would reduce the streaming pressure a bit. The GK2 pick would definitely be moved down the draft (maybe even last).

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by MoSe »

Q: What is a free agent?

The Scout: 
A free agent is a player not selected in the draft. These players can be swapped into squads 24 hours before the Gameweek deadline during the Free Agency mode.

New players added to the game, or players released by other managers, do not immediately become free agents.

Initially, they can only be signed through a waiver request.
Just trying to make it straight, sorry if I state what's obvious to someone

I drafted player A
Unless there is a new signing after the draft but before gw1 deadline, all not-drafted players are FA
I figure transfers will be open 24h before gw1 deadline too, If someone has 2nd thoughts, or was overcome by time scarcity during the draft.
But let's assume no players will be released before gw1 deadline

Up until 24h before gw2 deadline, you can only submit waivers request. But there's no waiver player (except new signings) as they're all FA

So I must be the quickest in the 24h window before gw2 deadline to pick FA B in place of player A, supposing there's competition for FA B.

Player A goes in the waivers as he's been released by me so he's not a FA and no other team can pick him for gw2.
The same goes of course for all the players released by other teams in the 24h FA window before gw2

Any team wanting to get player A for GW3 (including myself) must submit a waiver request, which will be processed 24h before gw3 deadline.

Should no team request player A from the waivers, he becomes FA and can be picked as such in the 24h FA window before gw3 deadline.

I think it's better to have this merry-go-round picture clear in mind if you want yo optimise your cheap defenders rotation using tranfers.

BTW, fpl say
Any number of waiver requests can be made, if you make more than one, they will need to be prioritised.
and don't mention points hits.
The same I figure goes for FA transfers?
That is, an unlimited amount of transfers can be made for free every gw, be them waivers or FA?

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Mav3rick »

So waivers are processed with a priority in mind then, while free agents are a free for all, however only in the 24 hours before the deadline? That would make it easier certainly to grab hold of defenders, especially if you are trying to use them to try to maintain a rotation going forward (since you'd have drafted an initial rotation setup anyway presumably) and it makes the whole tactic more viable in my mind.

The main issue I'd have I suppose would be that 24 hours before the deadline is late morning/ early afternoon on Friday, while I'm at work. I think it unlikely that I could guarantee that I'd get to the free agent list before 5 every week.

Interesting time pressure that's going to put on things for this strategy to work, you'd need/want to be available at the start of the 24h free agent window to pickup the player(s) that you need. Waivers are prioritised by reverse league order?

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Stemania »

How do we expect the free transfers to work in terms of duplication? You can transfer in anyone, but if someone else in the league has transferred that player in a split second earlier you lose out?

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by MoSe »

I expect they implement some lock thing that checks when you hit confirm whether that player is still available, like when you submit a post Fiso warns you someone else has posted before you in the meanwhile...

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by MoSe »

Mav3rick wrote:So waivers are processed with a priority in mind then,
...
Waivers are prioritised by reverse league order?
In wait of more recent updates (which I didn't check for)
https://www.premierleague.com/news/427772?sf96151543
Q: How do waivers work?

The Scout: A round of waivers runs once a week.

On the waiver deadline, a process will look through all the requests and make the transfers.

The lowest-ranked team will get their first waiver choice.

Before the season starts the waiver order will be the reverse of the draft order.

Once a waiver request is successful, the team in question will move to the end of the waiver queue for that Gameweek.

After waivers are processed, free agency mode will be active until the Gameweek deadline.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Tacalabala »

Mav3rick wrote:So waivers are processed with a priority in mind then, while free agents are a free for all, however only in the 24 hours before the deadline? That would make it easier certainly to grab hold of defenders, especially if you are trying to use them to try to maintain a rotation going forward (since you'd have drafted an initial rotation setup anyway presumably) and it makes the whole tactic more viable in my mind.

The main issue I'd have I suppose would be that 24 hours before the deadline is late morning/ early afternoon on Friday, while I'm at work. I think it unlikely that I could guarantee that I'd get to the free agent list before 5 every week.

Interesting time pressure that's going to put on things for this strategy to work, you'd need/want to be available at the start of the 24h free agent window to pickup the player(s) that you need. Waivers are prioritised by reverse league order?
You'll have to be aware too that if there is a Friday night game, that window will kick in from Thursday evening.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Talkie Toaster »

MoSe wrote:

BTW, fpl say
Any number of waiver requests can be made, if you make more than one, they will need to be prioritised.
and don't mention points hits.
The same I figure goes for FA transfers?
That is, an unlimited amount of transfers can be made for free every gw, be them waivers or FA?
I agree, that is how it seems to work from what we've seen so far.
However, what is to stop someone from doing something like this? :

Player A :arrow: Player B (From the Free-Agent Pool), then
Player B :arrow: Player C
.
.
Player Y :arrow: Player Z (Which you then keep.)

You will now have stopped anyone else from picking Players A-Y for the current GW as they'll all be in the Waiver Wire for the following GW.
In order to prevent this wrecking tactic there would need to be some sort of restriction, such as being unable to transfer the same player in and out of a team during the same GW (so if you genuinely change your mind after a transfer - too bad, you're stuck with it) or maybe once a player has been in the Free-Agent Pool they are tagged as Free-Agents for the rest of the game and return straight back to the Free-Agent Pool when transferred out of a team, rather than going back through waivers. This would mimic the real world process more realistically.

I think we'll have to carefully look at the small print when the game is launched later this week.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by gallus »

american fantasy draft leagues usually limit the number of transaction you can make in a week to 2 or 3. there are no issues with signing and dropping free agents.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Talkie Toaster »

Mav3rick wrote:I take the point that I only need three defenders each week, but if the top 35 are drafted anyway and then waivers take another 7 of the best that week from me, it seems like the player pool would be quite small. I'm not sure I'd like to have to stream three defenders each week under those circumstances, maybe there's a balance element.
Talkie Toaster wrote:If I've understood the process correctly though only new players and the players which have previously been picked and then released can be picked during waivers. As we're going after the free agents we'll have the same chance as everybody else to get them in the free for all free-agency bunfight afterwards regardless of our league position.
Mav3rick wrote:So waivers are processed with a priority in mind then, while free agents are a free for all, however only in the 24 hours before the deadline? That would make it easier certainly to grab hold of defenders, especially if you are trying to use them to try to maintain a rotation going forward (since you'd have drafted an initial rotation setup anyway presumably) and it makes the whole tactic more viable in my mind.
Now that we've got the full rules it looks like you had the right of it the first time:- Free Agents can be selected during waivers, so if you're top of the league everyone else can select them before you. This could make defender streaming a tough strategy to follow in a competitive league.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by MoSe »

And no traces of safeties and restrictions to prevent the locking tactic, in the rules.
Except it would materially take some time to implement it.
And as Player Z who's your actual target would be the last one you bring in, you risk someone sneaks in and takes him while you shuffle the chaff

BTW, I remember back in 1998, when we set up a PBEM Alpha Centauri game, we had to agree beforehand the list of game loopholes we'd consider a cheat to exploit ;)

(some players considered some 'tactic' legal because feasible, others considered it disruptive for the spirit of the game, or anyway it would change the style and feeling of a match, so with each new game and set of players a new agreement had to be reached, as with the "game settings")

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Talkie Toaster »

MoSe wrote:And no traces of safeties and restrictions to prevent the locking tactic, in the rules.
Except it would materially take some time to implement it.
And as Player Z who's your actual target would be the last one you bring in, you risk someone sneaks in and takes him while you shuffle the chaff
Also, there's now less likelihood of there being many players in free-agency that you'd want to bother locking from other managers as they'd have already been picked in waivers.

I think free-agency will mostly only be used for last minute injuries/deselection and when you don't set your waiver watchlist up properly.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by gallus »

Talkie Toaster wrote:
I think free-agency will mostly only be used for last minute injuries/deselection and when you don't set your waiver watchlist up properly.
Free agency is very important. If a starter from a good team gets injured during the season, his replacement will probably be free agent in draft fpl. I imagine King was a free agent in many leagues until January-February last season, and Kane was probably a free agent in 14/15 before he became a regular starter.

Draft is often all about luck. You need to be lucky to draft players who won't get season ending injuries. But knowing when to pick a free agent and who to drop requires a lot of knowledge, perhaps even more than the regular fpl game.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Mav3rick »

The free agency part is only relevant in the 24 hours before the GW starts though, I understand the importance of getting the right players, but that will be on waiver for the most part I assume so you may not have much say. Unless you're looking 2/3 games ahead, which certainly has merit, and then swapping out your bench players from the free agent pool before those players hit a brace or something and become waiver targets.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Talkie Toaster »

gallus wrote:
Talkie Toaster wrote:
I think free-agency will mostly only be used for last minute injuries/deselection and when you don't set your waiver watchlist up properly.
Free agency is very important. If a starter from a good team gets injured during the season, his replacement will probably be free agent in draft fpl. I imagine King was a free agent in many leagues until January-February last season, and Kane was probably a free agent in 14/15 before he became a regular starter.

Draft is often all about luck. You need to be lucky to draft players who won't get season ending injuries. But knowing when to pick a free agent and who to drop requires a lot of knowledge, perhaps even more than the regular fpl game.
This is how I was expecting it to work - Only new and dropped players being available in waivers for 1 week and if not picked going through to free-agency where they stay until picked by someone. Then I agree, Free-Agency is where most of your injury replacement and rotation is going to come from. However the rules which came out with the game launch are saying that all players are available on waivers every week.
FPL Draft - Rules - Transactions

Typical timeline

1. Once the draft is finished all unselected players will be available for selection via waivers. An exception is if the league draft completes less than 48 hours before the next deadline, in this case all unselected players will be immediately available via free agency.
2. Waivers are processed 24 hours before the Gameweek deadline.
3. After waivers are processed, free agency mode will be active until the Gameweek deadline.
4. Once the gameweek deadline passes all players are available on waivers. Steps 2-4 now repeat.
This is suggesting that all players available in Free-Agency are also available in waivers. Unless point 4 has been badly worded and what they meant to say was 'Once the gameweek deadline passes all players on waivers are available'.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by gallus »

Talkie Toaster wrote:
gallus wrote:
Talkie Toaster wrote:
I think free-agency will mostly only be used for last minute injuries/deselection and when you don't set your waiver watchlist up properly.
Free agency is very important. If a starter from a good team gets injured during the season, his replacement will probably be free agent in draft fpl. I imagine King was a free agent in many leagues until January-February last season, and Kane was probably a free agent in 14/15 before he became a regular starter.

Draft is often all about luck. You need to be lucky to draft players who won't get season ending injuries. But knowing when to pick a free agent and who to drop requires a lot of knowledge, perhaps even more than the regular fpl game.
This is how I was expecting it to work - Only new and dropped players being available in waivers for 1 week and if not picked going through to free-agency where they stay until picked by someone. Then I agree, Free-Agency is where most of your injury replacement and rotation is going to come from. However the rules which came out with the game launch are saying that all players are available on waivers every week.
FPL Draft - Rules - Transactions

Typical timeline

1. Once the draft is finished all unselected players will be available for selection via waivers. An exception is if the league draft completes less than 48 hours before the next deadline, in this case all unselected players will be immediately available via free agency.
2. Waivers are processed 24 hours before the Gameweek deadline.
3. After waivers are processed, free agency mode will be active until the Gameweek deadline.
4. Once the gameweek deadline passes all players are available on waivers. Steps 2-4 now repeat.
This is suggesting that all players available in Free-Agency are also available in waivers. Unless point 4 has been badly worded and what they meant to say was 'Once the gameweek deadline passes all players on waivers are available'.
that's eff up. every draft league I've ever played has the rules I mentioned

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Tacalabala »

Just had a thought.

Say I'm leading a league after GW2, so I'm going to have last pick for waivers in GW3. In a league of 8 I'm probably not going to get any of the starting defenders from the two favoured 'streaming' teams. However, what I might have more success is with targeting GW4 streamers. They are less likely to go in either the waiver period or free agency, and by doing this I can dampen the opposition's options, and I don't necessarily have to play these defender(s). Now, if the top two-three agreed a pact to block the out streamers every fortnight, you could leave much of the lower placed opposition with a much thinner pool of favourable options.

Would this work??

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by MoSe »

Probably, and... would it impact 0.05% or 0.01% on the league outcome, in your opinion? :?

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Tacalabala »

It would effect the defensive potential of lower teams, if they weren't able to draft any top defenders, and if they were relying on streaming to get their points up, no? Defenders could be a big differential if the top picks are locked up and the lower rated mids aren't doing as well as hoped. Also, it's the only reliable way for the top teams to get any sort of streaming system going.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Mav3rick »

It wouldn't take long for it to be cottoned on to. I'd imagine that the lower teams would just waiver in 2 or 3 defenders each week from fixtures in the next few GWs, and they would get their first picks anyway. You could only block one transfer out of several, and that is if you don't have your own priority waiver to work out.

Presumably the non streaming team(s) would also have less available slots to waiver defenders in anyway and at some stage you're gonna have to use your first waiver for something you want to do.

If you were trying to block me like that I'd just waiver in 3 defenders a week knowing you could only block one at most.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Tacalabala »

Mav3rick wrote: 30 Jul 2017, 12:54 It wouldn't take long for it to be cottoned on to. I'd imagine that the lower teams would just waiver in 2 or 3 defenders each week from fixtures in the next few GWs, and they would get their first picks anyway. You could only block one transfer out of several, and that is if you don't have your own priority waiver to work out.

Presumably the non streaming team(s) would also have less available slots to waiver defenders in anyway and at some stage you're gonna have to use your first waiver for something you want to do.

If you were trying to block me like that I'd just waiver in 3 defenders a week knowing you could only block one at most.
I'm just trying to work this out in my head, stay with me :D

Say you have an 8 team league:

1st - Team A
2nd - B
3rd - C
4th - D
5th - E
6th - F
7th - G
8th - H

A, B, C drafted the three top defensive picks and decent 2nd/3rd as well. F, G, H tanked for defenders in the draft and are relying on streaming to turn out good XIs each week. D, E have reasonable defences and aren't so reliant on streaming to fill out on numbers.

A, B, C will in theory get waiver picks 6, 7, 8, 14, 15, 16. F, G, H will in theory have 1, 2, 3, 9, 10, 11, and so on. It's pointless for A-C to rely on waivers for streaming, and would probably not do well in terms of picking up hot undrafted players. If A-C do have two defender slots to use, because their three starters are rock solid. That's 6 spots they can use to block streamers. If they organised themselves, they effectively lock out two blocks of defenders (if you assume four at the back, and two of the eight are already locked in across the 8 teams. They could do this every fortnight. F-H could well grow wise to this, they could even organise a pact to combat this themselves, but then if they try to waiver a fortnight ahead, that in turn would risk allowing D-E to pick up those hot players - effectively F-H are in a catch 22.

What am I missing here??

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Mav3rick »

I don't know, if the lower rank sides have 4 waiver defender spots (they won't stream all 5 there are enough defenders for at least one decent pick), then they can hoover up players for this week next week or elsewhere.

These three blocking teams would surely be just as interested in beating eachother to waivers they want to combat eachother, so I see even more streaming transfers getting through. Ultimately a 'blocking' team would not have space to block anything except one week, so the streamers just line up multiple defender waivers from now, next week or the week after and they will get enough.

The bigger threat is probably too many other streamers but then the pool of premium defenders is bigger.

Ultimately, there are max 40 defender picks in a 8 player draft, so there are always spare options around.

I would think that if the teams at the top spend their priority waivers trying to deny lower rank sides the streaming defenders they will just end up hurting themselves as they lose key transfers to close rivals who don't participate in the block.

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Re: Streaming Defenders

Post by Tacalabala »

I suppose it depends on whether and how many free agent non-defenders are going to be attractive enough to a) make you want to trade out what you have in your XI at the moment, and b) just how much more or less you want/need them compared to the streaming defenders on any given week/fortnight/month(???)

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