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Sports Personality 2017

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blahblah
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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

The Jester from Leicester, erm isn't...

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Surprised »

I think to make money on SPOTY you need to back and then lay

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

or bet with a bookie who offers cash-back.

Bet on Ronnie @ high odds, if he wins the first major of the year - see what cash-back you are being offered and cash out.

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Re: RE: Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by murf »

Surprised wrote:I think to make money on SPOTY you need to back and then lay
Better laying someone who does something and gets backed right in then backing him to cover yourself when he inevitably drifts when the next mug punter low odds bet appears. Repeat to fade.

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Re: RE: Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by maradonash »

murf wrote:
Surprised wrote:I think to make money on SPOTY you need to back and then lay
Better laying someone who does something and gets backed right in then backing him to cover yourself when he inevitably drifts when the next mug punter low odds bet appears. Repeat to fade.
This^

Remember a couple of years ago on the day (March, April time I think) that AP McCoy announced his retirement, his odds were ridiculously slashed...as far as odds-on, IIRC.
Well before the time the shortlist came to be announced - he didn't make it on there - he was back to being a rank outsider and nothing had fundamentally changed.
The trouble with actually profiting from this is a lack of liquidity at Betfair (particularly in the early part of the year) and the requirement to tie up funds for the long-haul.
So Footy66's suggestion about considering cashing-out is a fair shout....assuming you have backed them in the first place of course.

Footy66 wrote:Was Johanna Konta really 325-1?
Yes...fleetingly.

Image

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

The lack of liquidity helps with the big price jumps though?

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by maradonash »

blahblah wrote:The lack of liquidity helps with the big price jumps though?
How so? Do you mean queuing speculative bets/lays to see if they get taken?

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

Less there, means bigger swings?

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by maradonash »

blahblah wrote:Less there, means bigger swings?
Hmmm...not sure it can be defined that way. Just bigger gaps between the back and lay prices.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

Yep, which helps with this sort of thing.....

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by maradonash »

Would you mind elaborating on why you think that is the case? Just not sure I follow.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Well interesting day today in Sport and the run for Sports Personality.......

The other day when Djokovic got knocked out of the Aussie open I though it was Murray's title, then he goes and gets knocked out.

Ronnie in The Masters Snooker final and favourite to win the first major of the year. Hoping he can do it. Needs to win the 1st 2 majors of the year to get in that SPOTY shortlist though - a tough ask! Hopefully this will be the first one in the bag tonight.

Johanna Konta another outsider picked out has been having a good year and is still in the Aussie open. Going to be tough for her to beat a Serena or a Herber if she gets that far.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by murf »

Konta (or Evans!) needs to win Wimbledon, Ronnie needs to win the worlds - the rest is just fluff or an added supporting bonus if they win the big one.

Murray could probably do it without Wimbledon if he won 2 or 3 others and stayed at World No. 1.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by forestfan »

Wide open if Murray really goes off the boil. Nothing big enough to register in any team sport this year, barring the Lions tour and they won't win in NZ (I suppose the Ashes tour will be in progress around when the award is handed out). It's the London World Athletics that looks most likely to provide candidates, if we win some gold medals...

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

forestfan wrote:Wide open if Murray really goes off the boil. Nothing big enough to register in any team sport this year, barring the Lions tour and they won't win in NZ (I suppose the Ashes tour will be in progress around when the award is handed out). It's the London World Athletics that looks most likely to provide candidates, if we win some gold medals...

Anthony Joshua?

It's basically between Joshua and Murray.

Too low odds for me. So my bets are Konta and O'Sullivan as I prefer betting on high odds outsiders.

Just hoping Ronnie does not screw up tonight. If he gets these first 2 majors he's going to be up there with Joshua and Murray as contenders for this years SPOTY (I know those 2 have not won anything yet, but I expect they will).

With 2 majors they'd have to put in Ronnie the shortlist for a start. Still he may screw it up tonight and that will be the end of it. No good just winning the Worlds for him, I doubt that single title would get him in the shortlist unless it is possibly a record title he would be going for? or unless he breaks some other key snooker records during the season to add to it?

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Ronnnnnnnieeeeeee C'mon!!!!!! Masters Champion....

Onto The Worlds....

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Ashers »

Get your money on Taylor now that he has announced his retirement from the PDC tour.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Ashers wrote:Get your money on Taylor now that he has announced his retirement from the PDC tour.
What darts events are when this year? What is the big one?

He's going to have to win something obviously.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by murf »

The big one has gone already and he got knocked out early.

And he will be back in it next year before stopping touring (not retiring).

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by bigcliff2 »

Surprised wrote:I just think O'Sullivan will never be shortlisted or be top 3 because too many people are fed up with his continual whining. He has been a top player for years and isn't achieving anything he hasn't done countless times before.
I don't think that's true. He's already this year become the player with the most Masters wins. If he wins the World Championships, he'll move on to 6, joint with Steve Davis. I think those are big enough stories to get him in the 10 myself. But he has to win the Worlds, obviously. And then whether or not he's liked enough by the public is arguable.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by jimwinn »

No chance of Ronnie - a great player but behaves like a spoilt brat

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

I doubt the thousands of fans of Ronnie give 2 craps about his behaviour. You can say Andy Murray has behaved like a right nobber in the past, he is a tantrum master.

A couple weeks away from the World Championships....if he wins that. He'll be contending for sure for Spoty.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Konta winning the Miami Open - shows again that she is improving more and more as time goes by. Could easily win a major this year with the women's game being more of a free for all. Just Serena that dominates.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by bettowin »

Without a doubt, Andy Murray is a talented person, but he has already been the personality of the year many times. The other youth must take the lead as well.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Serena Williams out for rest of the season.

Have to say Konta has a good chance of winning a major this year.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

You can still get odds of 66-1 for Ronnie O'Sullivan to be Sports Personality of the Year.

That is ridiculous value. Absolutely ridiculous value. Insane value.

He's already won 1 major this year. He is on top in the 2nd round at the 2nd major of the year. If he wins this he is guaranteed to get into the shortlist for SPOTY - if he doesn't get in then people are having a laugh.

You are basically getting odds of 66-1 for Ronnie to win the World Championships and then basically having a fight out for SPOTY with most likely Anthony Joshua, Lewis Hamilton, and Andy Murray. And all 3 of those may not even have a successful year.

It will be tough to fight it out with those 3, though LEGENDS always get votes, and lots of votes.

So just saying 66-1 is outstanding value.

I mean for a start how is he the same odds as Greg Rutherford and Laura Trott, the bookies are having a laugh and giving you great odds.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Surprised »

Footy66 wrote:You can still get odds of 66-1 for Ronnie O'Sullivan to be Sports Personality of the Year.

That is ridiculous value. Absolutely ridiculous value. Insane value.

He's already won 1 major this year. He is on top in the 2nd round at the 2nd major of the year. If he wins this he is guaranteed to get into the shortlist for SPOTY - if he doesn't get in then people are having a laugh.

You are basically getting odds of 66-1 for Ronnie to win the World Championships and then basically having a fight out for SPOTY with most likely Anthony Joshua, Lewis Hamilton, and Andy Murray. And all 3 of those may not even have a successful year.

It will be tough to fight it out with those 3, though LEGENDS always get votes, and lots of votes.

So just saying 66-1 is outstanding value.

I mean for a start how is he the same odds as Greg Rutherford and Laura Trott, the bookies are having a laugh and giving you great odds.

Ronnie has never been nominated and it is unlikely he ever will. He is always whining and playing the victim. He may be good for snooker but non snooker fans have no interest in him as a sports personality. Snooker is a sport still dominated by Brits. How many non Brits have actually won the World Championship?

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Ashers »

Three if you include Republic of Ireland.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by murf »

We got ourselves a contender!

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Ashers »

Eddie Hall - Worlds Strongest Man 2017.

Wonder if he will get a mention.

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