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Future of football

A forum for discussion on Football matters not involving fantasy issues.
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Re: Future of football

Post by blahblah »

I heard\read that the Winter Break was a slight misnomer as it would be splitting the 10 matches over 2 weekends, so all Clubs get a 2 Week break.

re the European\World League: I have been posting about it being inevitable for years on here.... As per the posts above dallying with FF is about the only thing that keeps my interest.

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Re: Future of football

Post by forestfan »

bluenosey wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 11:05
Zimmerman wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 10:56 For premier league revenue it is.

Appreciate there is a tiered system and grass roots etc etc. But sky/bt et al aren’t paying £5bn because Rochdale are playing Oldham.

It’s like West Brom expecting a cut of the Champions League kitty. They are indirectly responsible for Liverpool and United being in it are they not?
but some of the money should be shared between all of the clubs ? Surely it would be a little be fairer to help keep the smaller clubs afloat ? For the price of superstar's annual wage packet you could hep keep a Rochdale or Oldham afloat, or both.
I suppose they would be concerned about subsidising crazy spending by the lower league clubs... the mass of administrations we saw in the ‘00s seems thankfully a thing of the past, but professional football remains about chasing the dream and clubs will always be tempted to throw unsustainable spending at it, particularly so if they feel like it is guaranteed that the big clubs will bail them out.

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Re: Future of football

Post by bluenosey »

Zimmerman wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 11:33 And yet you are so opposed to rich countries helping out the smaller ones that they are so very dependent on ;)

Another thing to consider.

Germany (a country 60% bigger than ours in terms of population)? They only have 56 professional clubs in their pyramid. We have 92 plus however many in the tiers below too. Maybe there is something Fundamentally wrong if a £300k subsidy is consider frugal (and less than 5k of your own fans are willing to rock up to support you)?
Maybe ? Well yes there is. Too much TV money, obscene salaries and agency fees, leading to a 6 team monopoly snooze fest, as I've said before. Fans have either stop paying exorbitant fees charged by multi-national TV companies or go down and support their club, old schoolie.

So what you're saying is we should euthanise about 40 teams, to lead to a better overall structure ? It's existed for a long time but it's creaking now - why is that ?

Less than 5K fans ? Wigan used to get about 2K in their old ground and took it up to 25K max at one point and about 2nd in the Prem. It can be done. You've got to have that possibility to progress by hard work and success, as in life. What about Bournemouth ? Would you have got rid of them years ago ? And kept Stockport ?

Obviously if you support a big 6 team you have different outlook, so I get that. Never been in that position and never likely to :lol: so I'll agree to disagree.

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Re: Future of football

Post by Zimmerman »

No, I’m happy with the current structure and I’m happy that teams have dreams... but nor am I asking the rich to subsidise the poor to achieve that dream.

Re attendance figures was just referring to majority of league two attendances.

I used to attend blackpool matches in the 4th tier.
Their attendances were 4K on average (or at least that’s what Owen used to tell the taxman).

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Re: Future of football

Post by Tacalabala »

Just to clear this up

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ion-rights

Basically anything above the base expected income from those rights becomes added prize money per position. I don't think it's unfair, the domestic pot is still shared for the most part and the bigger clubs are right to say they are the main attraction overseas. All 20 are still making massive amounts of money, and when Burnley can finish 7th the other 13 can't say they have no hope, they do they just need to get better frankly.

As for a European league, can't see a full blown league myself for the simple reason that someone has to finish bottom, are the likes of Celtic, Basel and Ajax going to let go of their domestic dominance to end up being the West Broms and Stoke of a Euro league? No they won't, so you'll end up with a rump of 12, not much of competition.

What you may have is a licence system where the super clubs automatically qualify for the Champions League, with caveats such as they must finish in top half, must qualify out of group 4 out of 5 years etc. UEFA are going to find it impossible to not include our big 6 and Italy's big 3 in the end.

What I'd like to see is a postseason league for the smaller nations like Scotland, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, where they play their domestic competition of say 26 games up to February, then the top 4 in each advance to a pan-European competition to decide places in the Champions League. That has to be better than what we have now, better competition each season, bigger tv market, real tangible achievement for club like Aberdeen to target. I'd be very interested to see a competition with groups like say Celtic, Ajax, Braga, Charleroi or Benfica, Club Brugge, Feyenoord, Rangers when is Champions League group stage spots on the line.

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Re: Future of football

Post by blahblah »

forestfan wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 11:37
bluenosey wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 11:05
Zimmerman wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 10:56 For premier league revenue it is.

Appreciate there is a tiered system and grass roots etc etc. But sky/bt et al aren’t paying £5bn because Rochdale are playing Oldham.

It’s like West Brom expecting a cut of the Champions League kitty. They are indirectly responsible for Liverpool and United being in it are they not?
but some of the money should be shared between all of the clubs ? Surely it would be a little be fairer to help keep the smaller clubs afloat ? For the price of superstar's annual wage packet you could hep keep a Rochdale or Oldham afloat, or both.
I suppose they would be concerned about subsidising crazy spending by the lower league clubs... the mass of administrations we saw in the ‘00s seems thankfully a thing of the past, but professional football remains about chasing the dream and clubs will always be tempted to throw unsustainable spending at it, particularly so if they feel like it is guaranteed that the big clubs will bail them out.
B Teams\Clubs :wink:

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Re: Future of football

Post by bluenosey »

Tacalabala wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 12:09 Just to clear this up

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ion-rights

Basically anything above the base expected income from those rights becomes added prize money per position. I don't think it's unfair, the domestic pot is still shared for the most part and the bigger clubs are right to say they are the main attraction overseas. All 20 are still making massive amounts of money, and when Burnley can finish 7th the other 13 can't say they have no hope, they do they just need to get better frankly.
I read the article then the comment by the Boro fan at the bottom.

"This is shit. As a Boro fan I've already resigned myself to the fact that we'll only ever be able to stay in the Prem (if we get back there) if we sell the club to some super rich guy. And he has to be even more super rich than some of the super rich guys already owning mid-table clubs. As one of the last remaining teams with a local owner, this is just depressing. This change now means you have to be super rich and one of these 6 clubs to have any hope.

I get that more people watch Liverpool than Huddersfield but do we have to take this step? The NFL manages to avoid it (I think?), and presumably more people abroad watch the Patriots and Cowboys than the Jags or Titans"

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Re: Future of football

Post by Tacalabala »

NFL doesn't have to commit with, or worry about losing players to, a foreign league, so it's a moot point.

So Burnley have a super owner do they? That'll probably come as a surprise to Tall Paul if so.

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Re: Future of football

Post by blahblah »

Are Burnley relevant yet. The 3 that went down this time, along with Soton are more along the lines of Fof's point?

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Re: Future of football

Post by Tacalabala »

blahblah wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 13:44 Are Burnley relevant yet. The 3 that went down this time, along with Soton are more along the lines of Fof's point?
You could've doubled their budget and there's still a good chance those same clubs would've finished bottom. It wasn't so long ago that Phil Gartside wanted a Prem 2 and a closed shop, funny how Bolton tanked soon after.

People do have to be realistic - 17 of the clubs aim to finish in the top 10, but no matter how much money is throw at them, only 10 of them can actually achieve that.

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Re: Future of football

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Tacalabala wrote:Just to clear this up



What I'd like to see is a postseason league for the smaller nations like Scotland, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, where they play their domestic competition of say 26 games up to February, then the top 4 in each advance to a pan-European competition to decide places in the Champions League. That has to be better than what we have now, better competition each season, bigger tv market, real tangible achievement for club like Aberdeen to target. I'd be very interested to see a competition with groups like say Celtic, Ajax, Braga, Charleroi or Benfica, Club Brugge, Feyenoord, Rangers when is Champions League group stage spots on the line.
As champions every year and at least entering the very early qualifying stages for the champions league, Celtic's club coefficient is almost guaranteed to be much higher than the national coefficient even if they lose or fail to progress very far, but national coefficients and league strength is primarily what may determine top teams.

Even Scotland's champions have to enter an extremely early qualifying round with a coefficient of 26. They are around Kazakhstan, Bulgaria Serbia and Norway.

Celtic did win it about 50 years ago but that's a very different age and era. They do now however perennially struggle to be competitive even in the group stage if they reach it, and haven't any sort of record in recent times.

Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands for instance have coefficients of 7, 9 and 14 as opposed to mid twenties.

The Scottish champions (co eff 26) could maybe be in a qualifying group for this qualifying group with the likes of the champions of Belarus, Norway and Kazakhstan?

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Re: Future of football

Post by blahblah »

Tacalabala wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 14:03
blahblah wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 13:44 Are Burnley relevant yet. The 3 that went down this time, along with Soton are more along the lines of Fof's point?
You could've doubled their budget and there's still a good chance those same clubs would've finished bottom. It wasn't so long ago that Phil Gartside wanted a Prem 2 and a closed shop, funny how Bolton tanked soon after.

People do have to be realistic - 17 of the clubs aim to finish in the top 10, but no matter how much money is throw at them, only 10 of them can actually achieve that.
Being pedantic: 7 (inc Everton) expect to and do finish in the top 10, so that means 3 in top 10 and 3 relegated? Without googling etc, I doubt any other Clubs have managed consecutive Top 6's or a few in a handful of years.

Next season there will be 6 Clubs with no more than 1 season's experience of the Prem and Burnley with the CL, I'm on sabbatical atm :lol: :lol: but I'm sure this is significant.

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Re: Future of football

Post by Tacalabala »

liquidfootball2 wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 14:08
Tacalabala wrote:Just to clear this up



What I'd like to see is a postseason league for the smaller nations like Scotland, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, where they play their domestic competition of say 26 games up to February, then the top 4 in each advance to a pan-European competition to decide places in the Champions League. That has to be better than what we have now, better competition each season, bigger tv market, real tangible achievement for club like Aberdeen to target. I'd be very interested to see a competition with groups like say Celtic, Ajax, Braga, Charleroi or Benfica, Club Brugge, Feyenoord, Rangers when is Champions League group stage spots on the line.
As champions every year and at least entering the very early qualifying stages for the champions league, Celtic's club coefficient is almost guaranteed to be much higher than the national coefficient even if they lose or fail to progress very far, but national coefficients and league strength is primarily what may determine top teams.

Even Scotland's champions have to enter an extremely early qualifying round with a coefficient of 26. They are around Kazakhstan, Bulgaria Serbia and Norway.

Celtic did win it about 50 years ago but that's a very different age and era. They do now however perennially struggle to be competitive even in the group stage if they reach it, and haven't any sort of record in recent times.

Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands for instance have coefficients of 7, 9 and 14 as opposed to mid twenties.

The Scottish champions (co eff 26) could maybe be in a qualifying group for this qualifying group with the likes of the champions of Belarus, Norway and Kazakhstan?
You have to focus on the value of the markets involved, specifically TV. Celtic and Rangers are a major draw, and would be required for any pan European competition. Celtic alone really carried the Prem in terms of tv value, so while as a league the money they get isn't great, practically the value is from two teams alone, whereas in Netherlands for example Ajax, PSV, Feyenoord, and arguably Heerenveen are the pullers of the value.

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Re: Future of football

Post by liquidfootball2 »

If you take their huge following into account and their large stadia they could qualify on that account so it very much depends on criteria, but not on playing strength. They've picked up coefficient points merely by being there by virtue of winning their one team league every year.

They are clearly the best in Scotland by a long long way but it's a big fish in a very small pond, they've seriously struggled in the group phase once they've beaten very easy teams in early qualifying rounds.

As Scottish champions they've been entered in the 'champions' half of the qualifying draw every year which has meant no difficult draws against the better teams in qualifying from Spain, Germany, England and Italy, these altogether tougher teams all having gone into to the far more difficult 'non champions' half of qualifying.

If just on support i think they can be included but would probably be out of their depth. No relegation would help them catch up.

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Re: Future of football

Post by forestfan »

Celtic must be looking at options beyond what they currently have. Domestic dominance gets boring in the end, there was talk some time ago of forming a league of the major teams from smaller northern European nations (rather like in rugby), and at the time of the demise of Rangers I did wonder whether Celtic might take the plunge and join the English pyramid at whatever level was possible.

I think the club that is likely to shape the future of European football is Bayern Munich, though. They have seemingly seen off the domestic competition permanently, and are at risk of a situation where they can no longer attract world class players because their league is a walkover. They would appear to be the club with most to gain from forming something new.

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Re: Future of football

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forestfan wrote:
I think the club that is likely to shape the future of European football is Bayern Munich, though. They have seemingly seen off the domestic competition permanently, and are at risk of a situation where they can no longer attract world class players because their league is a walkover. They would appear to be the club with most to gain from forming something new.
Arguably PSG have suffered most with really underwhelming results in Europe for years and years due to their thoroughly ordinary (at best) league.

The German league is at least a step up from the French.

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Re: Future of football

Post by Tacalabala »

I think the run Bayern are on is exceptional, as is Juve's, and will break at some point soon, both have been fortunate to have some long standing players there for these title hauls. PSG is a different situation because of the unlimited budget, though even they have to comply with FFP, thus having to loan Mbappe which I suspect UEFA will be forced to clamped down on as well. It wasn't so long ago that Lyon were lording it in France, so hardly unique.

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Re: Future of football

Post by forestfan »

liquidfootball2 wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 17:11
forestfan wrote:
I think the club that is likely to shape the future of European football is Bayern Munich, though. They have seemingly seen off the domestic competition permanently, and are at risk of a situation where they can no longer attract world class players because their league is a walkover. They would appear to be the club with most to gain from forming something new.
Arguably PSG have suffered most with really underwhelming results in Europe for years and years due to their thoroughly ordinary (at best) league.

The German league is at least a step up from the French.
PSG at least have the spending brute force to potentially overcome that eventually, although they still struggle to develop a winning mindset in Europe against the big teams.

Also if their owners were to turn off the money tap it would instantly become a competitive league again. Bayern have just strangled the competition I guess because of the ownership restrictions making it hard for investment to challenge them. Unless that changes they’re going to win probably 9 out of every 10 titles for ever more. Although I still can’t understand how Dortmund are always a selling club given the crowds they get, and how Hamburg managed to stagnate and eventually drop out of the top division.

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Re: Future of football

Post by Dennisthemenace »

It's only a matter of time before we have a European League. 12 teams will play each other home, away and probably somewhere in the far east. The bottom team will be relegated back to their old national league to be replaced by the winner of the Champions League (which won't include the 12 in the European League).

The European League, will offer money that will dwarf the current Premier League and Champions League set up. A European League 2nd tier will surely follow and maybe even a third tier.

I truly believe that within my lifetime - lets say 50 years if I last to 100 - there will be a World League, again with 12 clubs, with the bottom three relegated back to their continent's league and replaced by the top three in those leagues.

Within 1000 years there will surely be the SSL (Solar System League) which would be fun, I quite fancy a trip to the moon Titan. :D

What will it do to lower league clubs? Well nothing more than it's doing now I'd guess, unless it all gets a bit boring and some rich billionaire decides to do a 'Football Manager' and invest in Blyth Spartans to reach the World League within ten years!

The big clubs will get bigger, the small clubs will get smaller and I would guess that the game would be played in a different way much like Rugby Union is different to Rugby League. The bigger clubs won't care about the smaller clubs and vice versa. All it will mean to the FA Cup is that it will be a team or two less each season.

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Re: Future of football

Post by blahblah »

12 is a tad few? 2 Divisions of 20, with a Cup as no CL etc.... Or the NFL system, which allows for expansion?

re BM: aren't they\Germany a bit different with BM being very close to the National side and their FA having a fair whack of control? I remember something about their FA revamping the clubs' youth systems and playing style etc*. It seems that Germany all for the CL with BM and then the national comps.

*and could well be why our kids are walking\crawling there to play?

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Re: Future of football

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Be a very sad day if our pyramid is done away with or harmed, lucky that have never seen club I follow out side top division unlikely any alive have either, but to me every club that makes up what for me is the best sporting competition in the whole world are as important to its success as Arsenal. Yes its getting more and more difficult for clubs to climb through but it is still achievable, so short sighted the way the TV money is shared, trickle the money down and clubs out side the Prem might just be able to put some of it to bring through stars of tomorrow or allow some of the big boys youngsters a competitive environment to develop.
Of cause our top clubs need to be able to compete with the Barcas and Madrids who get huge help outside of football, so however split is done that has to be recognised but a way has to be found to give all teams a fair share of the TV money its madness if they dont, just look at some of last seasons results by the 3 new teams to the Prem, its the shocks that help to make it most watched and why it gets such a large money pot.

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Re: Future of football

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How far\long do you think a club could go with a good Youth System producing a steady flow of kids into a stable playing system - obviously with a manager\system to keep that stable\constant?

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Re: Future of football

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mikeg13 wrote:Be a very sad day if our pyramid is done away with or harmed, lucky that have never seen club I follow out side top division unlikely any alive have either, but to me every club that makes up what for me is the best sporting competition in the whole world are as important to its success as Arsenal. Yes its getting more and more difficult for clubs to climb through but it is still achievable, so short sighted the way the TV money is shared, trickle the money down and clubs out side the Prem might just be able to put some of it to bring through stars of tomorrow or allow some of the big boys youngsters a competitive environment to develop.
Of cause our top clubs need to be able to compete with the Barcas and Madrids who get huge help outside of football, so however split is done that has to be recognised but a way has to be found to give all teams a fair share of the TV money its madness if they dont, just look at some of last seasons results by the 3 new teams to the Prem, its the shocks that help to make it most watched and why it gets such a large money pot.
Just as ambition and a greater share of an ever expanding revenue saw football finances for the top clubs take off when the premier league clubs broke away from the old Football League setup with the latter reduced to 72 clubs, there does seem both a similarity and an inevitability about the eventual European League, it is coming, just when.

Indeed it will be sad and the consequences something between extremely dire for the top end of the rump premier league 14 to just not quite so bad for most of the rest.

To see the pyramid not lead to the top strata of domestic football will also be a sad but inevitable consequence. When that strata stretches across national boundaries it's perhaps unavoidable. The national competitions will be very much operating like the regional leagues further down the pyramid do now, where north and south further divide the lower you get.

The possible difference being promotion to and relegation from the European super league may well not exist at all, or if it does may not just be on merit as promotion and relegation normally operates through the world today.

If the league is set up with an idea for TV pulling power or support - more than the strength of the playing staff or recent European record, where teams who are likely to be completely out of their depth are included, then these criteria are the ones that may count for more with promotion and relegation too.

Tbh that last paragraph was a bit in jest as I don't think weak teams will be in from the start, and I don't really envisage any promotion at all to the super league or what will in effect be only an extremely limited movement and only for a very finite time before the trapdoor is shut and bolted.

I think the finances of the founders of such a league will get to be really very super rich extremely quickly indeed as boundless cash will attract more cash, while the rest left behind will become substantially poorer, but the gap will very quickly become completely unbridgeable too.

Promotion could well become a theoretical possibility only, with the infrastructure and ability of most of the clubs below that elite strata being completely inadequate to contemplate such a move up.

I would hope I'm proved far too pessimistic on the promotion relegation aspect and the ladder would be there for clubs to get there on merit, it does look an extremely tricky thing to contemplate though unless the super league is made up of say only five national associations...so say...

Spain, England, Germany, Italy and France and relegation and promotion could develop on a regional basis with each winner of their national title replacing the bottom five of say 20. Obviously if that bottom five is disproportionately skewed towards one country's representatives as it more than likely would be, then it does get complicated, which shows just how hard in practice any ladder up would be to operate.

To have one up from the winner of a cup competition again seems unfair and who do they replace - their lowest national representative or whoever is bottom of the elite league.

It just seems that a fixed elite league is more likely to me mainly for financial reasons too.
Last edited by liquidfootball2 on 09 Jun 2018, 23:08, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Future of football

Post by mikeg13 »

blahblah wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 20:41 How far\long do you think a club could go with a good Youth System producing a steady flow of kids into a stable playing system - obviously with a manager\system to keep that stable\constant?
It could be done,Southampton came very close, unfortunate the guy who started their rebirth died and his daughter though did a pretty good job did not have her heart in it, in my my view a club like Brighton could with their potential fan base have a very good chance of not just establishing a Prem place but giving a top 6 finish a possibility and it was not that long ago they were on the edge, given the right management structure a fair few of what is now seen as small fish could do it. I think back to my early years following the game, 2 of the top 6 now would be seen as a small fish in comparison to Wolves and Burnley. First game would have seen would have been sitting on an upturned tea chest from flats over looking QPR ground they were in 2nd division in them days buts its how I got to love the game, tragic if we lost sight of what the game is in this country.

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Re: Future of football

Post by blahblah »

Promotion to it could well happen and have good tv revenue from the preliminaries and play offs. But would need play off against relegated Franchise?

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Re: Future of football

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mikeg13 wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 22:51
blahblah wrote: 09 Jun 2018, 20:41 How far\long do you think a club could go with a good Youth System producing a steady flow of kids into a stable playing system - obviously with a manager\system to keep that stable\constant?
It could be done,Southampton came very close, unfortunate the guy who started their rebirth died and his daughter though did a pretty good job did not have her heart in it, in my my view a club like Brighton could with their potential fan base have a very good chance of not just establishing a Prem place but giving a top 6 finish a possibility and it was not that long ago they were on the edge, given the right management structure a fair few of what is now seen as small fish could do it. I think back to my early years following the game, 2 of the top 6 now would be seen as a small fish in comparison to Wolves and Burnley. First game would have seen would have been sitting on an upturned tea chest from flats over looking QPR ground they were in 2nd division in them days buts its how I got to love the game, tragic if we lost sight of what the game is in this country.
Poster that I'd like to have replied....

I think that it is possible, but needs a Guy Roux(sp etc) from Auxerre or Arsene at Ipswich(or similar) to do it?

Earlier I was going to post that Swansea went badly wrong, but then were they much more than Ziggy? I liked them as a footballing side... But when that dawned ho him.

Soton is a bit more complicated re sacked bod\Chairman? But the problem there is taking cash out too early? They have had the players and manager to be top 6: Poch, and the sold players list is incredible? Surely owners have made a fair whack?

Stoke and WBA suffered from trying to change from functional to "the next step" imho. No offence to hoppy, but Hughes going down was my ideal with those 2.

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Re: Future of football

Post by Tacalabala »

I think you're all being very pessimistic. The fact is you can't square the circle that someone has to finish bottom of a super league, a prospect that none of the top clubs would find acceptable regardless of the money. Also, the big money to back such a competition would come from England, and considering 10 of the 20 richest clubs in Europe are in England, where is the motivation to bin something they know works for something totally untested? And all to prop up AC Milan and Inter (it's no coincidence that those two are pushing harder than anyone for this, just at the point when the tide has turned against them due to poor corporate governance at both).

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Re: Future of football

Post by blahblah »

The big money may land here, but isn't from here.

The E\WL thing is\will be franchised based and England will be nothing after the Clubs go to Chinese citites with more peole living in them than in Britain.

Capitalism leads to monopoly....

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Re: Future of football

Post by liquidfootball2 »

blahblah wrote:The big money may land here, but isn't from here.

The E\WL thing is\will be franchised based and England will be nothing after the Clubs go to Chinese citites with more peole living in them than in Britain.

Capitalism leads to monopoly....
I would agree with cash will attract more and that inevitably leads to the rich seeking ways to further expand wealth but its not an easily franchised product in England with too much tradition and tribalism especially amongst fans.

If Europe was missed out completely and the Soccer league based just between Chinese, Japanese, the far East and American owners representing their own franchised regions it would definitely be possible, but to piggyback onto established European leagues and teams and restructure to somehow franchise them is virtually impossible.

Starting afresh in China and taking no account of Europe is doomed from the start too, its so hard to start without any semblance of tradition, it can be done but its decades and decades of work.

While I definitely see a European super league with European teams owned by American, Chinese or the mega rich Sheiks and Oil states, the rest is far too outlandish for me.

I don't deny the Chinese fans possibility and taking games over there but that's as far as its likely to go medium term, seventy to hundred years from now I just don't care about.

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Re: Future of football

Post by blahblah »

I guess it will be US franchise kinda thing ie Manchester too small for 2 rather than all going to China.....

Europe would always have a strong presence in World League (obviously in Euro League). South America is the interesting place re World League as it would provide a lot of players?

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