Future of football

[Zimmerman]

There was a World club tournament mooted he the other week wasn’t there?

I think that’s more likely than the doomsday scenario we seem to be discussing here.

If this is true

The Premier League will earn £3.2billion from foreign broadcasters in 2016-19 but has already wrapped up some lucrative deals for 2019-2022 worth between twice and 14 times as much as now.

Baring in mind the domestic deal is worth around £5bn... then it will be massive for the bigger clubs.

[Tacalabala]

Yeah, I think it won't happen though as FIFA want to package it with a global Nations League, like the one UEFA are having, and FIFA won't say who the financial backers are either. The clubs have rejected it.

I think a proper Club World Cup would be better than what we have now in December, you'd think having the Brazilian and Argentine clubs facing our lot would be an attractive proposition.

I have major reservations about this Nations League though, I think the format is poor and allows a Luxembourg to qualify for the Euros. Would have been more straightforward if UEFA had just said all qualifiers for the World Cup automatically qualify for the next Euros, they play in a Champions League style competition while everyone else tries to qualify like normal for the other spots. They need to have just two international windows each year as well - June+July, October+November - everyone hates how it interrupts the club season at the moment, September and March are stupid times for it.

[bspittles]

From @KieranMaguire on Twitter:

Under present #PremierLeague TV rights rules for every £100 million extra income EPL takes £73.05m & remainder is split between parachute & solidarity payments. An EPL club would take £3,650,000 & League 2 club would get £32,000. Under new rules nothing for parachute & solidarity

Thanks to my uni colleagues @ProfIanMcHale & @lawsyboy for the Excel crunching which is beyond me we've crunched the numbers to see how much extra each #PremierLeague team would make for an extra £100m overseas TV money taking into account the 1.8 top to bottom differential

Because the #EPL is not giving any money to the 72 EFL clubs it results in 13 EPL clubs being better off from a £100 million extra overseas TV money injection split on final league position than under present rules where the money is split evenly between all EPL clubs

If overseas TV money increased by £500m a season so domestic & overseas are broadly equal then #EPL keeps £135m that would previously been shared out with the 72 EFL clubs. This means 14 EPL clubs better off & perhaps explains why they voted for it

If overseas TV money doubles from present levels then #EPL clubs keep an extra £270m that previously would have gone to #EFL clubs & 16 clubs in EPL would be better off than before the new rules are introduced.

John Henry's concerns that his franchise in the EPL was 'subsidising' other clubs would also be satisfied. It would prevent greedy clubs such as Morecambe, Grimsby & Yeovil being given an extra £315,6000 if the overseas rights increased by an annual £1,000,000,000 for example.

If anyone is wondering why I'm producing spreadsheets at 6am on a Sunday morning, it's football innit. I'm lucky to teach this for a living too at Uni, resulting in the Daily Star labelling me a Football Finance Boffin and Footie Egghead, & praise surely can get no higher.

[bspittles]

There are a few charts and list alongside these tweets, which I can't copy.

If you want to see examples of the impact on the new rules, check his Twitter post from 07:31 on 10/6/18.

[Tacalabala]

But this is just for overseas rights, yes?

EFL clubs definitely contribute to the value of domestic rights as the culture of the game across the country is really built up through supporters going to EFL games.

You can't say this is the case overseas, the big clubs are the pull there. What I don't understand is why the EFL haven't tried to work with the PL so that EFL rights are sold together with PL rights overseas as a bundle, then EFL could take a proportion of the revenue raised. The Championship is a great league, better than most top flights, I think overseas broadcasters would be astonished at the amount of football content our four divisions generate.

[Zimmerman]

Slightly ‘misleading’ though. They arent worse off compared to today’s deal (using new revenue).
They will get more than the £40m they currently get.

Yes the gap between have and have nots is expanding, so they are proportionally worse off, but they are still getting a handsome share. They are only worse off compared to those that have more. But in turn, a Newcastle, West Ham or Bournemouth will still have more than Villa or Southampton.

Maybe Liverpool et al should complain how much United get from their kit and sponsorship deals?

[Zimmerman]

But this is just for overseas rights, yes?

EFL clubs definitely contribute to the value of domestic rights as the culture of the game across the country is really built up through supporters going to EFL games.

You can't say this is the case overseas, the big clubs are the pull there. What I don't understand is why the EFL haven't tried to work with the PL so that EFL rights are sold together with PL rights overseas as a bundle, then EFL could take a proportion of the revenue raised. The Championship is a great league, better than most top flights, I think overseas broadcasters would be astonished at the amount of football content our four divisions generate.

I guess the answer is the reason the Premier League was formed in the first place... so they had better bargaining power and got a massive slice of pie all to themselves.

[Tacalabala]

But this is just for overseas rights, yes?

EFL clubs definitely contribute to the value of domestic rights as the culture of the game across the country is really built up through supporters going to EFL games.

You can't say this is the case overseas, the big clubs are the pull there. What I don't understand is why the EFL haven't tried to work with the PL so that EFL rights are sold together with PL rights overseas as a bundle, then EFL could take a proportion of the revenue raised. The Championship is a great league, better than most top flights, I think overseas broadcasters would be astonished at the amount of football content our four divisions generate.

I guess the answer is the reason the Premier League was formed in the first place... so they had better bargaining power and got a massive slice of pie all to themselves.

Just having a look now, the 2016-2021 five year deal overseas rights sale earned the EFL $160m, that's $32m a year, a real pittance. And that includes the League Cup, which is what a lot of the overseas broadcasters are interested in. I'm sure they could do better if they were to go in with the PL as a value-added proposition with the PL games, even if the PL paid a flat fee to effectively redistribute it for them. There's glaring omissions in the EFL coverage as well - they don't have a deal in Spain or Italy for example, and Italians will watch any game that's on!!!!

[bspittles]

I would imagine the PL would only agree to that in exchange for havin B teams in the EFL.

[forestfan]

But this is just for overseas rights, yes?

EFL clubs definitely contribute to the value of domestic rights as the culture of the game across the country is really built up through supporters going to EFL games.

You can't say this is the case overseas, the big clubs are the pull there. What I don't understand is why the EFL haven't tried to work with the PL so that EFL rights are sold together with PL rights overseas as a bundle, then EFL could take a proportion of the revenue raised. The Championship is a great league, better than most top flights, I think overseas broadcasters would be astonished at the amount of football content our four divisions generate.

I guess the answer is the reason the Premier League was formed in the first place... so they had better bargaining power and got a massive slice of pie all to themselves.

Yeah, even back in the 80s there was talk of a closed shop Super League, as the big clubs tried to maximise revenue, probably in the wake of the Euro ban. There’s always been a pecking order, and it’s great how the likes of Bournemouth and Brighton have been able to rise from the lower reaches to compete in the top flight... the top six has become a league in itself, but then again that group had only four teams in it a decade ago. If there’s eight or nine in another decade it would be great for the game, so come on mega-investors, buy a few more

English football is in a healthier state than most others around Europe, the lower divisions are low on quality but high on competitiveness, which is both a blessing and a curse for the English game really. On one hand it makes it the national game it is, with well supported professional teams in nearly all corners of the land. On the other it perpetuates the hoof ball, teacup-throwing stereotype of English football and rarely produces players and coaches who can step up to a higher level. I’m not sure we can have the best of both worlds really.

[bspittles]

English football is in a healthier state than most others around Europe, the lower divisions are low on quality but high on competitiveness, which is both a blessing and a curse for the English game really. On one hand it makes it the national game it is, with well supported professional teams in nearly all corners of the land. On the other it perpetuates the hoof ball, teacup-throwing stereotype of English football and rarely produces players and coaches who can step up to a higher level. I’m not sure we can have the best of both worlds really.

Ooh, maybe the lower leagues could raise their standard if they had more money?

The real problem, imo, is that the race to the PL is so lucrative that almost every Championship club is losing massive amounts to get there. And any PL club getting relegated that doesn't bounce back quickly hits huge financial challenges, such as Villa this season.

[Tacalabala]

Villa has a shady owner, and have taken an ill advised gamble and lost. Contrast that with Bournemouth, there are no excuses for the pickle they have put themselves in, I feel bad for the people that will now lose their jobs, but they know who to blame for that. We've been down this road many times, you can't expect PL clubs to bail out EFL ones if they make ludicrous financial decisions like Villa have, that just encourages it even more doesn't it? What you can do is look at who's running the EFL and asking if they're really making the most of the product they have. For starters, why are EFL highlights on Quest, bloody Quest from next season?!

[liquidfootball2]

I guess it will be US franchise kinda thing ie Manchester too small for 2 rather than all going to China.....

I'm not really sure I follow you properly but it's not really a case of the size of Manchester.

United are a massively successful worldwide brand and are possibly the best moneymaking machine in the premier league and even Europe. They regularly feature right at the top or very near that in Europe's leading clubs for income, and have a huge marketing and commercial arm which helps put them there.

City are a rapidly expanding concern with outstanding potential and could easily in the near future rival Europe's other leading clubs for income, as they too try and grow their worldwide presence and brand.

There is obviously no way they could amalgamate so following the American model you perhaps suggest moving City to another part of Europe or even outside?

I just think this is so unlikely in the short or even medium term,and I mean 50 years plus, considering the investment and roots already put down, the training complexes and redevelopment of that side of Manchester, it all points to both clubs being based in the city for the foreseeable future.

Games could easily be played elsewhere on an ad hoc basis or even a block of games to satisfy and grow the worldwide brand, and in keeping with the anticipated explosion of new wealth to be gained by the chosen elite, but neither clubs' base in Manchester will change imo.

Certain franchises in the NFL do have a history of being moved around and this is something that has always been an accepted way for their sport to operate at the highest level, its always been franchise based to an extent.

It's just far more difficult to do this with English and probably European football at the top elite level, below that it's far more likely as has happened with lower league clubs (Milton Keynes from Wimbledon although AFC Wimbledon was born too,).

I just don't see a franchise model anytime soon for established clubs. What I could perhaps see is one starting afresh in China or the Middle East (Quatar or UAE maybe) and with huge backing breaking into the elite, that way to my mind is far more plausible.

South America I'm not so sure about but it may well work better there, but the likes of Boca juniors and River Plate are unlikely to disappear. However I am not at all knowledgeable enough to comment on the state of club football there, although it does appear that their clubs lose their best players to Europe all the time, so finances can't be great.

[bspittles]

Villa has a shady owner, and have taken an ill advised gamble and lost. Contrast that with Bournemouth, there are no excuses for the pickle they have put themselves in, I feel bad for the people that will now lose their jobs, but they know who to blame for that. We've been down this road many times, you can't expect PL clubs to bail out EFL ones if they make ludicrous financial decisions like Villa have, that just encourages it even more doesn't it? What you can do is look at who's running the EFL and asking if they're really making the most of the product they have. For starters, why are EFL highlights on Quest, bloody Quest from next season?!

But one of the reasons they've taken such a gamble is because the prize is so big. I think all but two of the Championship clubs made a loss in the last reported financial year, all having to spend more just to stay in the division in which some are spending big to get out of.

If that prize was reduced (by filtering more of the money downwards), fewer clubs would have to spend so big.

It's a question of the PL recognising it holds the future of the rest of English football, and acting accordingly in a moral way. If not, it's no longer football and just business. And that's business I'm completely disenfranchised from.

[forestfan]

It’s not just about chasing the money, club owners know they’re not going to make a profit anyway, whatever level they are at, as expenditure (mostly player wages and parasites’ fees) will increase to match income.

It’s just that as I said before, professional football is about chasing the dream, there’s no point supporting a club if you don’t want to see them employ any means necessary to get to the next level up and beyond. We expect it, as supporters, and vilify our owners for lack of ambition if they don’t commit to it. That’s never going to change, however we redistribute the finances.

[Tacalabala]

It always was business as soon as they started asking for payment at the turnstiles.

"one of the reasons they've taken such a gamble is because the prize is so big"

That's basically problem gambling. Once the fun stops, stop....

I'm confident you'll find EFL get substantially more in amount in downward payments from the top division than any other lower league. You can't expect the Prem to become a lender of last resort if EFL clubs don't manage their affairs responsibly.

Take a look at Colchester, my local club. They eventually secured the funding to build a new stadium, and have invested in infrastructure rather than wages. They have dropped down to League 2, but the reality is League 2 is their level. What they didn't do is spend money they didn't have to stay in the Championship, or push for promotion to the Prem when they were leading that division.

[bspittles]

I'll admit to being quite despondent about the future of football in England.

Premier League clubs have voted for the TV money to be divided on the basis of finishing position, rather than evenly split between all clubs. More FA Cup replays will be lost (with potential for giant killings and big paydays for the smaller clubs disappearing). A winter break in February, so attractive clubs can earn money by touring abroad.

Even more than now, the big clubs will continue to get bigger. We are already at a point of trying to figure out which order the top six will finish, and which of the others will avoid relegation.

That's not the game I grew up loving, it's just greed. I feel like sticking two fingers up at the Premier League and all the crap that comes with it (including FF).

And now (most of) the clubs have clubbed together to give a retiring employee a leaving gift of £5m. That’s an employee who has already received £20m+ in salary, and who isn’t even retiring but staying on as a business consultant.

[Tacalabala]

I'll admit to being quite despondent about the future of football in England.

Premier League clubs have voted for the TV money to be divided on the basis of finishing position, rather than evenly split between all clubs. More FA Cup replays will be lost (with potential for giant killings and big paydays for the smaller clubs disappearing). A winter break in February, so attractive clubs can earn money by touring abroad.

Even more than now, the big clubs will continue to get bigger. We are already at a point of trying to figure out which order the top six will finish, and which of the others will avoid relegation.

That's not the game I grew up loving, it's just greed. I feel like sticking two fingers up at the Premier League and all the crap that comes with it (including FF).

And now (most of) the clubs have clubbed together to give a retiring employee a leaving gift of £5m. That’s an employee who has already received £20m+ in salary, and who isn’t even retiring but staying on as a business consultant.

It is disgraceful, just imagine what that money would have done for a local community centre?

[bluenosey]

I'll admit to being quite despondent about the future of football in England.

Premier League clubs have voted for the TV money to be divided on the basis of finishing position, rather than evenly split between all clubs. More FA Cup replays will be lost (with potential for giant killings and big paydays for the smaller clubs disappearing). A winter break in February, so attractive clubs can earn money by touring abroad.

Even more than now, the big clubs will continue to get bigger. We are already at a point of trying to figure out which order the top six will finish, and which of the others will avoid relegation.

That's not the game I grew up loving, it's just greed. I feel like sticking two fingers up at the Premier League and all the crap that comes with it (including FF).

And now (most of) the clubs have clubbed together to give a retiring employee a leaving gift of £5m. That’s an employee who has already received £20m+ in salary, and who isn’t even retiring but staying on as a business consultant.

It is disgraceful, just imagine what that money would have done for a local community centre?

Yeah, I second this. How much money do some of these people want ? Running a business is one thing put pure out and out greed is another. Having said that I notice a so called work of art sold for 90 million the other day and at the same time, about a tenth of the world's population are starving.

[Zimmerman]

The fact this has caused more outrage than the fact some players get £250k in a week (and probably the vast majority get it every month) shows how far we have slumped in to passive acceptance.

[Tacalabala]

The fact this has caused more outrage than the fact some players get £250k in a week (and probably the vast majority get it every month) shows how far we have slumped in to passive acceptance.

Quite. I suspect we are reaching a level whereby no more additional revenue can be made in Europe - the Prem's total rights sale to Sky and BT went down fractionally this time IIRC.

[forestfan]

The fact this has caused more outrage than the fact some players get £250k in a week (and probably the vast majority get it every month) shows how far we have slumped in to passive acceptance.

Players are the entertainment though, I'm not saying they all deserve what they get, but they're the equivalent of film stars, whereas the faceless executives don't really add anything to the product we get. Still not as bad as agents though, who I've been saying for years should be banned completely.

[Tacalabala]

Yes, agent fees should be paid by the player's out of their own salary, agents shouldn't be getting paydays for engineering transfers which aren't in the player's interest. And the authorities should be taking a dim view of some cosy manager/agent/club relationships, it's anti-competitive.

[Zimmerman]

The fact this has caused more outrage than the fact some players get £250k in a week (and probably the vast majority get it every month) shows how far we have slumped in to passive acceptance.

Players are the entertainment though, I'm not saying they all deserve what they get, but they're the equivalent of film stars, whereas the faceless executives don't really add anything to the product we get. Still not as bad as agents though, who I've been saying for years should be banned completely.

How can the clubs afford to pay players that money?

I’m not defending his payoff... but I can see how it’s come about. Yes it’s heinous. Yes the clubs should have given to local communities instead or maybe donated it to local food banks, maybe the club owners should pay it out of their own pockets etc etc

But on the flip side, how much has he grown the brand? Is it all his good work? Maybe not, but he’s been the top dog whilst it has grown exponentially.

From the Guardian; to put his mooted £5m pay-off into perspective every single club now receives almost twice that amount up front every time they have a match televised

It’s just strange why this has stirred up so much backlash - it’s being cited as signifying the end to the relationship with the fans or not being the people’s game anymore

[forestfan]

It's the clubs contributing to a special gift, when he gets enough money already, that's the issue. If the PL itself wants to give him a payoff from what it earns, that's the same as in any other line of business... but to take more money directly from the clubs is just rubbing supporters' noses in it.

[Zimmerman]

He works for an organisation (gets paid loads) but as part of that work he also indirectly works for all said clubs and has made all those clubs ridiculous wealth.

It’s mental... but is it any more disgusting or immoral that football itself (I say that as a fully signed up defender of players and salaries and rip off ticket prices). It’s just par for the course (as shameful as this course happens to be).

[Dot]

Harry 'Bent as arseholes loves a brown envelope' Redknaps fee for im a celeb makes me want to puke too.

I stopped going to football in 2001 when greed had really taken hold.

Remember when Rodney Marsh predicted the 100k a week footballer was coming and was laughed at.

[forestfan]

Rumour has it that Harry’s chosen luxury items to take into the jungle will be Jermain Defoe, Peter Crouch and Niko Kranjcar

[liquidfootball2]

Ok at a complete tangent, but who remembers Bullseye when the big prize was a huge luxury yacht and usually won by a Joe Smith who lived in a flat on the 26th floor of some inner city tower block?

It would suit Harry though

[forestfan]

Ok at a complete tangent, but who remembers Bullseye when the big prize was a huge luxury yacht and usually won by a Joe Smith who lived in a flat on the 26th floor of some inner city tower block?

It would suit Harry though

Not exactly a huge luxury yacht, it was the base model speedboat, but yes, always won by someone from nowhere near the sea... there would be a few of them on eBay in this day and age