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Relegation 2018

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forestfan
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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by forestfan »

Clement gone then... assuming Swansea play the Pulis card, how does that change things? Do they have the players to implement his philosophy?

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

As above, my head was stewed with this, and then I read the de-Clementining of the Sea of Swans.

Their big problem is losing Llorente and Ziggy and his guitar spiders' goals. I thought Clementine did well at the end of last season, although they did swing from OK to absolute 5hite.

For some reason I thought Toshack rather than Pullis maybe for that reason. They would need a load of players to play the Pullis way?

Do you know if there is\was a takeover? I asked in the Pub.... If it has happened then Pullis is less unlikely, but the fans would go ape?

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by TheBigLewandowski »

Tammy Abraham is an exciting young player with a bright future in the game, and has shown he can score at this level also, but, outside of him and Wilfried Bony where else are they going to get goals from? And then there is the issue of the rest of the team not creating that many chances for the forwards also? Think I read somewhere that Bony is possibly out for a bit now with an injury too which obviously won't help the cause.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

Before the season I had Abrahams and Carroll as almost inked in. then decided that was ridiculous and picked the wrong one. That said I dumped Carroll quicker than I would have Tammy...

I can't profess to have watched much of them this season, but Sanches has been woeful?

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by Ruth_NZ »

blahblah wrote: Bournemouth: At the start of the season they were top of the "too good to go down table", but despite a bad start fixture-wise they have the same number of points as Newcastle and Huddersfield. That is not good, and after the Brighton match only have 3 realistically winnable matches. My guess is that the third relegation spot is between them and WBA as I expect them to be in the mire by the end of GW25 from which they may not recover.

I watched them tonight, just got back from the game. They played pretty near their first XI and quite honestly they look like a hard-working Championship team to me. I saw nothing there apart from Arter and Surman dogging away in midfield and a few flashes from Ibe. I think Josh King is the only thing between them and relegation. So I tend to agree with blah. With King and maybe Defoe nicking a few they may just have enough goals in them to survive but they aren't good. All the passing flair they once had seems to have gone.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by Ruth_NZ »

forestfan wrote: 20 Dec 2017, 21:00 Clement gone then... assuming Swansea play the Pulis card, how does that change things? Do they have the players to implement his philosophy?

Well, they have a fair few CBs and a big lump they can stick upfront. I'd say Pulis has the basic ingredients he requires. :wink:

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

Tonight's update:
blahblah wrote: 20 Dec 2017, 20:04 Soaring up to No 5 are...........................
Bournemouth: At the start of the season they were top of the "too good to go down table", but despite a bad start fixture-wise they have the same number of points as Newcastle and Huddersfield. That is not good, and after the Brighton match only have 3 realistically winnable matches. My guess is that the third relegation spot is between them and WBA as I expect them to be in the mire by the end of GW25 from which they may not recover.
This really isn't a surprise as they have expectedly lost to Manure and Pooe'dliver in the last 2 matches and their fixtures are similarly 5hite for a while with 2 times WHam and the Hove of Brighton their only respite in the next severrrrrrrrrrrrn exclaimed in a strictly fashion. FF wise this is a no go place for the blah of blahness having sold Daniels before this run started. In a serious tone this is what posters randomly picking relegation Clubs due to "real" reasons of lack of goals etc are missing to the blah of blahness: there is a psychological element and a points total to avoid the drop. For the points total the top 9 here are ALL on a point a match, or less. In theory this means that 38 will be more than enough to avoid the drop this season, and getting there will be easier now than in April and May. Howe's Cherries may well get lose all of those severrrrrrrrrrn matches, which will see them deep in the quicksand of the mire from the OP.....
I haven't been impressed by what I have seen this season, but then when they were bad last season they were woeful.

The whole psychology bit is the point as their fixtures are awful until the end of the season, and I do not think they have the traditional (Pullis) stay up battler style of play; and they should have more points by now as a comfort blanket until their fixtures turn.

Conversely Huddersfield could be safe by Valentines Day.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 20 Dec 2017, 23:43
forestfan wrote: 20 Dec 2017, 21:00 Clement gone then... assuming Swansea play the Pulis card, how does that change things? Do they have the players to implement his philosophy?

Well, they have a fair few CBs and a big lump they can stick upfront. I'd say Pulis has the basic ingredients he requires. :wink:
Do they have the midfield though? the point about Pullis et al is 2nd Phase and the Welsh Messi is pottering about Port Vale way....

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by Latic »

Fer's your man. Plus time in the transfer/loan market.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by CptPugwash »

Personally i don't think anything like a point a game will be required to stay up this year. I see the 17th/18th cut-off at 34 points. 2 reasons for this. Firstly for the last 3 or 4 years at least 2 or 3 of the big 6 have been misfiring big time. This season, IMO, it looks like they are returning to their expected dominance. Secondly at the bottom end as of yet there doesn't appear to be anybody getting tailed of yet. To me that adds up to less points for 12th to 18th.
I'm with Blah, Huddersfield won't go down. They have played 3 of the expected bottom 9 at home (WBA NEW BRI) & won all 3. Assume they cobble 10pts from those other 5 home games, then i believe they would need about 4 points from the remaining 15 games. Even sunderland could manage that.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by No Way Jose »

I agree Pugwash. United for all their issues are running virtually at title winning points return and are 11 behind first. If spurs find form second half of the season the battle for the top 4 will be better than ever and the strength of these teams will likely mean the bar is a little lower for relegation avoidance. Maybe a little above 34 but somewhere around there

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

Yep the fixtures are about to go back to the start of the season, and weren't they top at one stage?

Here are their next 6:
SOU A
STK H
BUR H
LEI A
WHU H
STK A

After those they could\should be on 30+ from 21 now. As above 38 will be more than enough and they still have Bou, Swa, CP and Wat at Home to get to 35+.

On the bad side their last 4 matches are a mare:
CHE A
EVE H
MCY A
ARS H
But, as above: they should have the points in the bag by then, as opposed to Bournemouth who could get zip from their next 7. Their fixtures go back to the "nightmare" fixtures of the start of the season with both WHam matches tossed in.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

Posted separately as a different point....

This is GW19, but it doesn't mean the Clubs have played the rest as they play the same Clubs in GW's 20 and 24.

In order to get a "true" halfway, played every Club once kinda feel GW20 has to be included, but not GW19. Since GW20 is reversed in GW24 it is almost a double header kinda thing. Given that the Clubs at the bottom don't get many points it does provide a lil bit of a skew.

The match ups are:
CP Ars
BHA Che
Bur MU
WBA Eve
New Mcy
Sot Tot
Swa Liv
and
Bou WHm
Hudd Stk
Lei Wat

My Fixture Sheet has the top 7 in Red, and Everton are just about justifying it now, although SAM hasn't beaten much... The interesting thing is that NONE of my Big 7 play each other meaning 7 of the strugglers will be lucky to get 3 points from the 2 GW's and the other 6 have a chance to close\extend the gap to the bottom 3.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

A quick update:

As with every GW for the foreseeable at lest 2 of them will play each other, as there are so many in the mix:

(Obviously I haven't watched all, well any of the matches.)

Watford losing at Brighton has them in the mix now with Brighton defenders in the FF mix in a couple of GW's, andWatford reduced to a watching brief - maybe a hold, but not a buy imho.

Huddersfield continue to impress blah with their survival mission following their draw at Soton, of whom they stay 3 points clear. Personally I would avoid Soton as the VvD TW Fog drops once again and Austin should be suspended for the net however many matches if his hamstring doesn't heal. Hudd defenders rock and there are Quaner and DP for cheap Forwards who are probably more enablers than starters.

All at Sea Swans vs the Palace of Crystal: both would have settled for the point before ko, with Woy a tad narked at not getting the other 2 points and the Swans ecstatic at getting a point. Any FF benefit here is still tbd, with a slight erring on the side of Zaha or maybe Benteke?

Soke\WBA: blah thinks this says more about WBA than Stoke. Stoke should have been there for the taking, but WBA are so 5hite that they couldn't. Stoke have Hud (a) and New (H) in their next four, and those will be better indicators of their survival chances?

WHam\New: this is exactly the sort of match blah warned about re WHam. They went 1-0 up very early just as they did against Chelsea and kept a CS, and they held the Mighty Arse to a 0-0. But there must have been some ambition to score a second against the Toon, rather than redouble the Bus Parking efforts. A first win in loads for Rafa: blah rusts in Rafa to keep them up, but no idea re FF whether it will be CS's or goals...

We are down to 6 Clubs with less than a point a match, with WBA and Swans 5 and 6 points adrift of it.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by forestfan »

Thoughts now? For me it's looking like it's between the three promoted clubs (who all appear to have run out of steam after reasonable starts) and Swansea.

The likes of Stoke and West Brom look like they've turned the corner and have too much quality to stay where they are. Southampton should equally have the ability to get themselves out of it, and still have the new manager card to play (which we can probably assume the three that came up will not do...)

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by Edmondson »

Brighton's fate you would think will be sealed from their next 4 league games.

They'd need at least 8 points I reckon. 7 would put them in a nice position but could see them getting dragged back in.

Thought they actually looked ok today v Chelsea, hoping the new striker gives them the bounce that these other teams have had from new managers.

Crazy that a couple of wins could see them top half.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by bspittles »

I wouldn't say Stoke have turned the corner after a single win against one of the other teams in trouble!

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by murf »

With so many poor teams (poor when they are off form at least) it is way too soon to pick just 3. Could be any 3 from 11 or 12 at the moment. Swansea look poor and West Brom aren't far behind but the rest are just a blip away. 10th place Watford are only on target for 41 points. Southampton are in the relegation zone but if they win today's game in hand they are just 2pts off 10th.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

Yep to the last 2 posts.

I'll do an update rambling load of turd soon, but Soton's point today hardly makes them safe....

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by forestfan »

blahblah wrote: 21 Jan 2018, 20:46 Yep to the last 2 posts.

I'll do an update rambling load of turd soon, but Soton's point today hardly makes them safe....
Well, as I said, they haven’t played the new manager card yet... that’s worth 5 or 6 points to them at some stage. (Still think they actually meant to get Pellegrini...)

Obviously transfer window moves could make a big difference, with so many teams desperately short of goals who will dare to splash the cash?

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

forestfan wrote: 21 Jan 2018, 21:05 (Still think they actually meant to get Pellegrini...)
It took me months to realise that they hadn't :oops: :lol:

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by MoSe »

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/43049564
PL survival quota.png
Image
So how many points will be needed?

Using the same formula, Gracenote says
38 points "is more likely than not" to be enough, giving a 62% of staying up,
but anything below that and it is a less than 50% chance.

"At this stage, it is certain that
40 points will be enough to stay up and that
a team getting 34 points will be relegated,"
says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by Maldini »

Any chance of data with the correct league positions?

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by forestfan »

I change my mind every week at the moment... even West Brom should have too much quality on paper, and Stoke and Southampton still feel like mid-table sides who have lost their way a bit.

I’ve been expecting the promoted sides to fade but they all keep pulling out a result when they most need it. Swansea’s new manager bounce is impressive but will they revert to type? Palace and West Ham seemed to have turned the corner but both have been crippled by injuries.

Still a case of pick any three from nine, at least.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by Zimmerman »

I’m going for West Brom being gonners.
It’s the two from Newcastle, Brighton and Stoke.

West Brom have a nice few games ahead and could conceivably take 14/18 points in the next 6... with United, Liverpool and Spurs in their last 5 they’ll be going to the wire.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

Apologies for not updating, I'll have a bash this weekend during dead FAC Cup weekend.....

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by forestfan »

West Brom really getting detached from the pack now, will they go for one final roll of the dice and get rid of Pardiola?

Nobody below Arsenal can afford to relax yet, the lower reaches of the table are a scrum worthy of the Six Nations.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by Zimmerman »

That’s them finished now surely. Today was the proverbial 6 pointer and they blew it.

Probably need 6 wins from final 10. Can’t score, can’t keep a clean sheet. Surely no chance of picking up that many wins.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by forestfan »

Whatever you think of Pulis, they wouldn't be in this position under him.

On paper they shouldn't be anywhere near where they are. Taxigate, or A Messi Situation In Barcelona, probably finished off their hopes.

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Re: Relegation 2018

Post by blahblah »

forestfan wrote: 24 Feb 2018, 21:44 Whatever you think of Pulis, they wouldn't be in this position under him.
Why do you type that?

They were pants then, and for most of last season? Obviously beyond they need to close the gap asap.

It is carnage and beyond prediction, Swansea looked to be on the rise then stuffed by Brighton was the icing on this cake for me.

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