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2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

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SamD
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2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by SamD »

2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

The fantasy National Hunt competition is due to relaunch on 1 November 2013. Basic information to date (courtesy of Tote/Racing Post/facebook/Twitter):

- entry fee returns to £10: was £5 last year
- monthly prizes reintroduced: 6 x £10,000
- estimated pool £400,000
- select 10 jumpers from list of 400; no substitutions
- game runs from Fri 15 November 2013 through to April 2014

Initial link: http://www.totesport.com/totesport/land ... /index.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by 7lb claimer »

Monthly prizes good. :) £10 entry disappointing .. £5 didn't reduce my total outlay but did allow a few more sporting selections. No subs makes no sense in a game where injuries are a big feature. Would have thought it would have been much better going in the other direction with more changes available. More chance in a syndicate would have thought, if that means a wider choice. Reckon entries will be well down and the William Hill comp will prosper.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by wahine »

I played this a few years ago, 10 pounds does seem a bit steep for a single and I dont know the William Hill game , but if there's enough interest i will join a FISO syndicate 8-)
in either of them.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by 4-5-18-13-15-20 »

I would be interested in joining a Ten to Follow syndicate :D

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2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by SamD »

Game open: teams can be entered now.

How to play
Simply select stable of 10 from list of 400 horses to compete in the 2013-2014 Jumps Ten to Follow competition. This runs from Friday 15 November 2013 to Saturday 5 April 2014.

Online entry closes at midday on Friday 15 November. Postal entries must be received by noon on Thursday 14 Nov. No entry received after these deadlines will be accepted. Each stable costs £10.

Prize money points
Selections winning Jump races (under the Rules of Racing in Great Britain or Ireland) during the period of the competition will be awarded points as follows:

VALUE and POINTS
IN RACE WORTH £30,000 OR MORE TO THE WINNER: 25
IN RACE WORTH £25,000 UP TO £29,999 TO THE WINNER: 20
IN RACE WORTH £15,000 UP TO £24,999 TO THE WINNER: 15
IN RACE WORTH £10,000 UP TO £14,999 TO THE WINNER: 12
IN RACE WORTH LESS THAN £10,000 TO THE WINNER: 10
Prize money will be taken as the published racecard Penalty Value to the winner. For races in Ireland, prize money published in Euro will be converted to Sterling at the official conversion rate of €1.25 to £1 as of Oct 1.

In the event of a dead-heat, points will be divided by the number of horses dead-heating with fractions rounded down. No points for a walkover. The official result on the day will be used for the calculation of points with any subsequent disqualifications disregarded.

Bonus race points
An additional 25 points will be awarded to the winner and 12 points to the runner-up in each of the following races:

RACE COURSE & DATE
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP; CHELTENHAM, 16 NOVEMBER 2013
HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE; NEWBURY, 30 NOVEMBER 2013
INTERNATIONAL HURDLE; CHELTENHAM, 16 DECEMBER 2013
WILLIAM HILL KING GEORGE VI CHASE; KEMPTON PARK, 26 DECEMBER 2013
IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE; LEOPARDSTOWN, 26 JANUARY 2014
IRISH HENNESSY GOLD CUP; LEOPARDSTOWN, 09 FEBRUARY 2014
RACING POST ARKLE; CHELTENHAM, 11 MARCH 2014
STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE; CHELTENHAM, 11 MARCH 2014
SPORTINGBET.COM QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE; CHELTENHAM, 12 MARCH 2014
RSA CHASE; CHELTENHAM, 12 MARCH 2014
LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE; CHELTENHAM, 13 MARCH 2014
RYANAIR CHASE ; CHELTENHAM, 13 MARCH 2014
BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP; CHELTENHAM, 14 MARCH 2014
AINTREE HURDLE; AINTREE, 05 APRIL 2014
CRABBIE'S GRAND NATIONAL; AINTREE, 05 APRIL 2014
All the above dates are subject to confirmation of the 2013/2014 racing calendar.

Any of the above races taking place outside the dates of the competition will not be included in the competition.

Tote dividend points
Tote dividend points will be awarded according to the official tote win and tote place dividend odds - including a £1 unit stake - as follows:

Win dividend – straight conversion from £s to points. For example for a £9.40 win dividend the horse is awarded 9.40 points, £15.30 is awarded 15.30 points, etc. Horses finishing first will not receive the place dividend.

Horses that finished placed will only receive the toteplace dividend points (unless finishing second in the bonus races detailed above). This will be on the same criteria as above - i.e. £7.20 equates to 7.20 points.

The maximum tote dividend points earned by a horse in a race is 50 points. So if a horse was returned at a totewin dividend of £67.50, the number of points earned would be 50.
See 'Star Horse' section below for more details on the 50 point cap.

If no tote win/tote place dividend is declared, the Starting Price will determine any tote dividend points using standard each-way terms. Should neither a tote win dividend nor a Starting Price be returned, Tote dividend points will not apply.

Star horse points
Players nominate one horse to be their 'Star Horse' in each entry.

This horse scores double points on the Tote dividend points system, detailed above, for a win or place in any race.

For example a horse wins and returns the following dividend: £6.20.

As the horse is the 'Star Horse' the return will be doubled for a total combined return of 12.40 points.

The maximum combined 'tote dividend + star horse' points is capped at 50 for any one horse in any race. Therefore the maximum total number of points earned by a horse, in a £30,000+ bonus race is 100 points – i.e. 25 prize money points + 25 bonus race points + a maximum of 50 tote dividend + star horse points.

Overall prize
Entries to the competition will cost £10 online and £12 (or 14 euros) by post.
All stake monies will be aggregated and paid out in dividends after a 30% deduction to cover administration costs.

The remaining 70% of all stakes will be paid out as prizes.

An amount of £60,000 will be allocated for monthly prizes with the highest scoring entry in the prize periods below each winning £10,000. In the event of a tie, the prize will be shared.

PERIOD: PRIZE
NOVEMBER 15-30: £10,000
DECEMBER: £10,000
JANUARY: £10,000
FEBRUARY: £10,000
MARCH: £10,000
APRIL 1-5: £10,000

The remaining balance will then be divided as follows to the overall winners:
OVERALL POSITION: PRIZE
WINNER: 70%
2ND: 10%
3RD: 5%
4TH: 4.5%
5TH: 3%
6TH: 2.5%
7TH: 2%
8TH: 1.5%
9TH: 1%
10TH: 0.5%
In the event of a tie for any places, the dividend(s) for the places concerned will be shared.

Game link: http://www.totesport.com/portal?action=GoFantasy&tab=FA" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Ashers »

I am back to play

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Ten

Post by SamD »

Tote Ten to Follow deadline has now passed.

Just the one stable here this year, 'Forever Changes'. Selections:
  • Invictus
    Big Buck's
    Dynaste *
    Cue Card
    Sprinter Sacre
    Sir Des Champs
    My Tent Or Yours
    African Gold
    Our Conor
    Annie Power
The William Hill Jumps game begins later: noon, Sat 30 Nov. Entry costs £2.
For game details see fantasy-racing-2013-14-the-jumps-t107105.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Ashers »

Invictus

Our Conor

Flemenstar

Bobs Worth

Sprinter Sacre

At Fishers Cross

My Tent Or Yours

Simonsig

Sir Des Champs

Finian's Rainbow


Thinking I have missed a trick with Dynaste

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Re: Ten

Post by Ashers »

SamD wrote:Tote Ten to Follow deadline has now passed.

Just the one stable here this year, 'Forever Changes'. Selections:
  • Invictus
    Big Buck's
    Dynaste *
    Cue Card
    Sprinter Sacre
    Sir Des Champs
    My Tent Or Yours
    African Gold
    Our Conor
    Annie Power
Brave choice with Big Bucks. From what i have read, he will only run once this season.

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Re: Ten

Post by bloggie »

Ashers wrote:
SamD wrote:Tote Ten to Follow deadline has now passed.

Just the one stable here this year, 'Forever Changes'. Selections:
  • Invictus
    Big Buck's
    Dynaste *
    Cue Card
    Sprinter Sacre
    Sir Des Champs
    My Tent Or Yours
    African Gold
    Our Conor
    Annie Power
Brave choice with Big Bucks. From what i have read, he will only run once this season.
'He is due to make his return to the track this season - with one run as preparation for a record fifth World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March.'

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Striker »

And even if Big Bucks is back to his very best, it may not be a penalty kick this season as a couple of his past World victories have been. And we are still far from knowing that he will be back to his best when the pressure is on.

Despite having 12 TTTF entries this season (my largest ever entry as the way my worst ever fantasy football season is going, I'll need something to fill the gap in my fantasy interest come February/March :oops: ), I didn't pick even one Big Bucks, (cue him and Ruby coming up the hill 12 lengths clear).

Dunno if there are any others in this thread who also put in small multi entries and if so how wide a spread of horses did you use. I basically concentrated on a core of around a dozen, with another dozen included just once or twice. I also went for more hurdlers than accepted wisdom suggests, an average of just over four per line, as it could easily be possible to get all five bonus hurdle winners, in theory easier than getting the winners of the three big handicap chases. So apart from one PP horse in one entry I've completely ignored the Paddy Power (hoping against hope that a horse not included such as John's Spirit will win), and obviously the National. I've also ignored the RSA (good luck Sam with African Gold, as long as the NTD gelding's points don't seriously affect my own finishing position :wink: ) and have restricted my Arkle possibilities to Champagne Fever. I've possibly made a mistake of not excluding sentimentality in my choices. For example The New One and At Fishers Cross who both did me a big favour at last season's Festival are included in 10 & 8 lines respectively.

Another reason for avoiding the Paddy Power is that given the usual profile of the winner a progressive 7.y.o. (possibly 6) carrying less than 11 st., it would then shoot up in the weights and may need to be Ryanair class if it is to win more points this season. Not a reason by itself for swerving a PP selection, but when combined with the relatively wide choice of possible winners, and the opportunity cost of every place in a ten horse TTTF line, it was enough for me to turn down the temptation of attempting to put points on the board immediately.

Anyway I'll stop here as I'll be in danger of boring most readers silly, but if anyone is really interested in a PM discussion of TTTF of selections, strategies etc, send me a PM.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by stevejtr »

been busy but have put 1 line in

Hurricane Fly
Champagne Fever
Dynaste
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
Sprinter Sacre
At Fishers Cross*
The New One
Simonsig
Sir Des Champs

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by stevejtr »

Champagne Fever wins at Punchie :D African Gold unplaced

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by bloggie »

Used to small multi with obviously double the amount of lines when £5 each. Just the one this time:
Zarkandar
Hurricane Fly
Bobs Worth
Jezki
Big Buck's
Sprinter Sacre
The New One
Simonsig
Rajdhani Express
Sir Des Champs

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Ashers »

John Spirit is not in the game.

Bonus :D

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by stevejtr »

yup, nice result. Decent day tomorrow too would be a nice start. MamaJtr has Sea Lord, Defy Logic, Sire de Grugy and the Fly across her two stables. I just have the Fly

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Tote Ten to Follow tips

Post by SamD »

Peter Martin's Capital Ratings system for reducing the list of 400 jumpers to just 32 has received a new lease of life.

Here are their ideas on the 2013-14 contest:
http://www.tentofollow.byethost7.com/to ... follow.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Ashers »

Hurricane Fly wins today, but can not see him beating Our Connor or The New One on that form.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Striker »

Looks like a pretty poor entry this year. I'd guess that the entry hasn't reached 30,000, despite the Tote estimating that entries were going to be around 57,000. Naturally this has very significant implications for the prizes. On present trends entering the 2014 flat TTTF comp may be a waste of time.

Has anyone an entry which hasn't yet had a runner and is still on "nul points". If so what is your current rank. I'd guess that a maximum of 20% of entries haven't yet got any points on the board.

Incidentally although I haven't looked outside my own few runners, there's even a points mistake already amongst that limited sample. Perhaps sometime tomorrow someone at the Tote will realise that the Morgiana was worth around £40,000 to the winner and not under £10,000 which the points currently awarded to the Fly suggest.

Getting simple things like that correct at the first time of asking isn't exactly rocket science. So it's not surprising that the marketing hasn't exactly produced a flood of entries.

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Re: Tote Ten to Follow tips

Post by Striker »

SamD wrote:Here are their ideas on the 2013-14 contest:
http://www.tentofollow.byethost7.com/to ... follow.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Although that article may help people who like a small punt and don't know anything about NH racing, it contains some arrant nonsense.

One can disagree about a few of the horses who they've not included, (one of my own major selections isn't listed) but that is acceptable as choosing ones horses is very subjective. But some of their strategy is simply silly.

For example, one of their worst ideas is to include all 32 horses in your first four lines. The idea should be to try to win, imagine someone suggesting a similar tactic for fantasy football. :shock:

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Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by SamD »

Striker wrote:... Has anyone an entry which hasn't yet had a runner and is still on "nul points". If so what is your current rank.
Single entry, Forever Changes, is currently ranked 24,541 with zero points.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Striker »

Thanks Sam. Hopefully my estimate of just under 30,000 is an under-estimate. Would be even better if I had to eat humble pie for pouring scorn on the Tote's estimate of around 57,000.

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Numbers

Post by SamD »

on 18 Nov wrote:Single entry, Forever Changes, is currently ranked 24,541 with zero points.
Update: team still on zero; now 26,052nd overall; three runners this Sat afternoon though...

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by stevejtr »

Cue Card hugely impressive in the Betfair. Bobs Worth was majorly disappointing - seemed run off his feet which considering it was 3m 1f in the soft wasn't a good sign. Long Run just doesn't jump well enough IMO. Silviniaco Conti just didn't quite get home. Dynaste ran a good race but was beaten by the better horse on the day.

So Cue Card moves from Ryanair Horse to Gold Cup hopeful in 6 minutes

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Ashers »

stevejtr wrote:Cue Card hugely impressive in the Betfair. Bobs Worth was majorly disappointing - seemed run off his feet which considering it was 3m 1f in the soft wasn't a good sign. Long Run just doesn't jump well enough IMO. Silviniaco Conti just didn't quite get home. Dynaste ran a good race but was beaten by the better horse on the day.

So Cue Card moves from Ryanair Horse to Gold Cup hopeful in 6 minutes
and we all know that Cue Card gets the Cheltenham hill.

Long Run needs a new jockey to see if they can get his old form out of him.

Bobsworth will be fine at Cheltenham, the course suits his style.

and Al Ferof could be the horse of the season.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Nabby »

Ashers wrote:
Long Run needs a new jockey to see if they can get his old form out of him.
Waley-Cohen senior has said so many times that is never going to happen. He is in racing for fun, the glory is a bonus, and the most fun he has is watching his son ride his horses.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Ashers »

Nabby wrote:
Ashers wrote:
Long Run needs a new jockey to see if they can get his old form out of him.
Waley-Cohen senior has said so many times that is never going to happen. He is in racing for fun, the glory is a bonus, and the most fun he has is watching his son ride his horses.
I know, but he is failing to get the best out of a horse that could have been the greatest national horse ever.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Nabby »

Ashers wrote:
I know, but he is failing to get the best out of a horse that could have been the greatest national horse ever.
But it's not relevant Ashers - the owner is in it for the fun, and he's having fun. Don't get me wrong I agree with you, I'd love to see a pro on board to see what difference it makes although having said all that Long Run does hold the record for the Gold Cup with W-C junior on board so he's not holding him back that much.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by stevejtr »

Tbh I doubt a Pro would make that much difference. The horse jumps english fences like they're french. It just thumps through rather than over and loses ground at each obstacle. At the very highest level you just can't do that. Yes I'd say a Pro would probably present the horse to a fence better, but the horse just can't fiddle fences very well.

Don't see it staying the distance at Aintree,though the fences will suit better. 11 10 wouldn't help, and that's what it'll get.

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Re: 2013-14 Tote Ten to Follow * Jumps *

Post by Striker »

Not so sure about that Steve. Horses which are "hunted" round Aintree sometimes surprise. I'd be more concerned about his jumping than anything else. He'd also never be on my radar for the National if he'd run in the Gold Cup 3 weeks before.

As regards the comments on how a professional jockey could improve his performance, I'm very much with you. SW-C isn't as strong or as polished as the likes of McCoy in a driving finish, but he is a good horseman. So often the difference is unlikely to affect the placings.

Even if one of the top boys was on Long Run, it would only marginally affect my view of whether or not he was value in a given race.

As an aside, it would have been a nightmare result for many of us with respect to the TTTF if Long Run had won today. Most of my lines apart from having the winner, on average had just under 1.5 losers. To have had an average of almost 2.5 losers in every line and no winners would have been pretty miserable.

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