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CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

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CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Flyman » 05 Aug 2012, 12:34

Over the past few seasons, due to the diligence and hard work of diamondplus and the FISO boffins, we have been able to offer an explanation of FPL price changes and the World Famous 'FISO Crack the Code' site detailing potential price risers, fallers and those players who are protected.

A link to this year's CtC can be found here.

A link to Stuboy's HELP page is here
Please use this thread to ask CtC-related questions not answered in the FAQ above.

A link to last year's thread is here.

Those wishing to understand the mechanisms of FPL price changes can read what we understood to be the case (in the 10-11 season) in the first few posts of this thread.

Note: At this stage I am simply presuming that diamondplus will be updating the CTC site. Here's hoping and my gratitude if he does! :)

Please keep this thread dedicated to Crack the Code debate, especially in the first few weeks when analysis is at its peak. Thank you.



Copy of the 2010/11 Opening CTC Post:

THE FISO GUIDE TO FPL PLAYER PRICE CHANGES

Crack The Code is back for a new season! CTC is the wondrous creation of FISO member diamondplus (to whom we are heavily indebted), backed up by calculations and deductions made by FISO boffins who have successfully worked out the vast majority of FPL's "secret" price-change algorithms! The site predicts which FPL players will rise and fall in price each day, and is a hugely valuable tool to many thousands of FPL managers worldwide!

In this opening post you'll find stuboy's FAQs and in the following posts is a more detailed explanation of the site.

This season's Price Change Site, aka "CrackTheCode", can be found HERE.


NOTES ABOUT THE CTC SITE:
! The CTC site is updated every day at 09:00, 13:00, 16:00, 18:00, 19:00, 20:00, 22:00.

! FPL.com price changes occur between 00:30 and 03:30 GMT/BST each day.

! The rise and the fall thresholds will vary over the season. Any changes to this algorithm will be reflected on diamondplus's site at the earliest opportunity. For this reason users must accept the possibility of inaccuracies on the site.

! Price drops for players with less than 1% ownership (see FPL site) can not be deduced accurately and so are not included.

! There is a margin of error implicit in all 'Price Drops: Selected By' statistics due to the ownership details given on the FPL.com stats page being rounded to a whole percent. This small margin of error can sometimes result in prices not falling when predicted by the site, or vice versa.



IMPORTANT! This information is used at your own risk.
1) Diamondplus maintains this website in his spare time and for no financial reward. While he will endeavour to keep it up to date this is not always immediately possible and he is under no obligation to do so at all. Users must take responsibility for their own actions. FISO and diamondplus accept no responsibility for errors on the site, nor for the actions of those using the site as a guide to price changes.
2) Although we expect the general rules to be the same as previous seasons, there will be a margin of error in the early days as we ascertain this, and also as we need to estimate the threshold figures for the new season (which will certainly be different to past years).


FAQs

PRICE RISES

Q: Hi, I’m kind of new to this Crack the Code site. How does it work?
A: Crack the Code, known as CTC, is a site that predicts which players will either increase or decrease in value based on the Fantasy Premier League (FPL). It has been developed by Diamondplus who tries to work out the formula that the FPL uses in order to determine these increases & decreases.

Q: Interesting, so when do these price increases/decreases happen?
A: We’re not 100% sure but it is sometime between 00.30 and 03.30 every day.

Q: Does that mean a player can only increase/decrease once in day?
A: Exactly, they can’t increase/decrease more than £0.1m in one day. They can however increase/decrease every day in a week, but I’ll cover that shortly.

Q: And how often does CTC get updated?
A: This one we are sure of! It’s updated at 09:00, 13:00, 16:00, 18:00, 19:00, 20:00, 22:00 every day.

Q: Alright, so I’m looking at the CTC page for rises, what does everything mean?
A: Let’s start from the right hand side. You’ll see Target NTI. NTI stands for Net Transfers In. This number is calculated by taking all the teams that buy a player and subtracting the number of teams that sell a player. In order for a player to increase in value, they need to hit the NTI Target.

Q: So how do you know what the NTI target is meant to be?
A: Truthfully we don’t. It’s a bit of a moving target as FPL don’t let us know but as the season continues and we see more players increase in value, we get a better idea of what an NTI target is meant to be. This is due to being able to see what player’s NTIs were when they increased and therefore can speculate with more accuracy. The swing can be approx 3% either direction.

Q: And how do you know how many teams have actually bought/sold a player?
A: That information is actually found on the FPL site – just not everyone knows about it. If you click on the transfers tab on FPL, on the right you’ll see that it is defaulted at Score (Total). Click on that tab and go down and you’ll see transfers in, transfers out, transfers in (Gameweek), transfers out (Gameweek).

Q: Wow, never knew that
A: Glad I could teach you something....

Q: So going back to the CTC, if a player hits their NTI target they automatically increase in value?
A: Without confusing you right now, yes that is correct. There are some situations this doesn’t happen but I’ll cover them later as they are few and far between. In general though, yes they do increase in value.

Q: So looking at CTC, I can see a player’s NTI Target. I presume the NTI is what they are currently on and NTI (Today) shows me what increase/decrease they’ve had today?
A: Spot on

Q: So if a player’s NTI target is 32,500 and they have an NTI of 36,500 when the price increase occurs, do 4000 NTI roll over for their next target?
A: Unfortunately not, no. When a player hits their target and the price increase happens, their NTI total get reset back to zero. This includes all additional NTIs above the target. They just get lost into the ether.

Q: You mentioned above that a player can increase more than once in a week. Does the NTI target just get reset as well?
A: This is where it differs. If a player increases in value because they hit their NTI target, then in order for them to increase again in the same GameWeek (GW) the NTI target gets doubled. If they happen to hit that NTI target, in order for them to get a third increase, their NTI target gets trebled. You with me?

Q: Think so, but can you show me some numbers to make it clearer?
A: Of course. So if the NTI target is 32,500, and the player hits this in a GW, remember their NTI total gets reset back to zero. If they are to increase again in the same GW, their NTI target is now 65,000 (32,500 x 2). If they manage to hit that increase again in the same GW, then their NTI target becomes 97,500 (32,500 x 3) and so on. Remember, each time they hit the NTI target in the same GW, they NTI total is reset to zero.

Q: So how many times can a player actually increase?
A: In truth, there are enough teams that a player can increase every day of a GW but this is highly unlikely. Players have managed to rise 3 times in the same week.

Q: What happens to that player’s NTI target at the end of the GW?
A: The NTI target gets brought back down to the original 1st level, in this case 32,500, at the end of a GW.

Q: But let’s say a player has hit their first NTI target and now are trying to hit 65,000 for NTI target 2. Let’s say the NTI total is 45,000 at the end of the GW, do they also get lost into the ether?
A: No – this is where it’s a bit different. In fact, end of GW NTI totals, get rolled over. The only time NTI totals get lost is on the night of an increase.

Q: So if I’m getting this right, if 45,000 NTI total gets rolled on to the next GW and the NTI target is reset to 32,500 then the first night they’ll have an automatic increase?
A: That is correct

Q: But the additional 12,500 (45,000 minus 32,500) will be lost when that increase happens?
A: That’s perfect. Do you want my job??


PRICE DROPS

Q: No, not really but I do want to understand how player’s prices dropping works?
A: Whereas price increases had to do with NTIs, price decreases have got to do with NTOs (Net Transfers Out). Each player has an NTO Threshold and when they reach this, their price drops.

Q: Is the NTO Threshold the same for each player?
A: The formula is the same but the actual NTO number is different. The way you work out (formula) a player’s NTO Threshold, is to calculate what approximately 10% of their actual ownership number is. Hitting this number causes the price drop.

Q: Ownership number? How do I find out what that is?
A: Firstly, looking back at the FPL site, if you go to transfer page and look at each individual player, you’ll see the (i) icon to the left of their name. If you click on that, you’ll see a small window pop up. In that window you can see the % of “Teams Selected By”.

Q: That gives me a % but how do I know how many teams are in the league?
A: Now go back to “My Team” on the FPL site. On the right hand side you’ll see “Points/Rankings”. Under that you will see “Total Players”. To prevent confusion I’m going to refer to them as Total Teams. Therefore if there are 2 million total teams and you know a player is owned by 20% of teams, then you know that player is owned by.....

Q: 400,000 teams.
A: Correct. And if their NTO Threshold to drop in price is approx. 10% of that .....?

Q: Then they’ll need 40,000 players to sell them for their price to fall.
A: Spot on!

Q: Why do you say it’s approximately 10%?
A: Similar to price increases, we don’t know the exact formula that FPL uses to decide on price decreases but our research shows it’s approximately 10%.

Q: So how does it work if a player has already reduced in price once in a week? Can they fall again?
A: A couple of things to mention here. Firstly, again, exactly like price increases, when a player’s price drops, any additional NTOs get lost into the ether and their NTO Threshold gets reset back to zero. Secondly, once a player reduces once in a GW, in order for them to reduce again in the same GW their NTO Threshold is double the original one. For a third decrease in the same GW, the NTO Threshold is 3 times the original and this goes on and on. However, once the GW is over, any outstanding NTOs are carried over to the next GW and the NTO Threshold is reset using the same formula above.

Q: So are there any times when the NTO Threshold can be different from how you’ve explained it above?
A: Yes – sorry, I know this gets a bit complicated but work with me on this.
1) When a player’s value is higher than their season-beginning value, then in order for them to have a price decrease, instead of an NTO Threshold, they just need to hit the negative NTI Threshold instead, if this is smaller than the 10% of manager’s that own him.

Q: You say what???
A: Take Drogba, let’s say his last price increase was an NTI Target of 31,000. His value is now above his season-beginning value. He now loses form and people want to sell him. His “Teams Selected By” number is 25%. On a game with 2 million teams he is owned by 500,000 teams. 10% of that would be 50,000 and that should be his NTO Threshold to drop. BUT, because he has risen already in the game, his NTO is now the 31,000 (original NTI target) as this is lower than the 10%.

Q: And any other differences on NTO Threshold?
A: 2) Any player who has less than 1% “Teams Selected By” work on a different scale. Unfortunately we’re not sure how this is calculated. Also worth noting that there is a slight margin in error for all NTO Thresholds as the “Teams Selected By” on the FPL site is rounded to the nearest decimal, therefore the NTO Threshold will not be completely accurate.

Q: So that’s it? I’m ready to use CTC?
A: Actually no. There are a couple of other things you should be aware of such as Flagging & Protection of players.

FLAGGING & PROTECTION OF PLAYERS

Q: Flagging & Protection of Players? Explain away….
A: When a player is either injured, doubtful, suspended or ineligible then the (i) next to their name on FPL will be flagged red or yellow.

Q: Does this mean the player is protected from any price drop?
A: NO – absolutely not and this is a major mistake many people make. Anyone who is flagged will still be able to increase and decrease in value. The increase NTI target stays the same. However the NTO Threshold for a price drop is approximately 2.5 times greater than the usual Threshold for price drops.

Q: Why is that?
A: The general thinking here is that when a player is injured or suspended, naturally a lot of people will want to sell that player. In order to ensure their price doesn’t fall dramatically, the Threshold is increased.

Q: So if a player’s NTO Threshold was 40,000, it’s now going to be 2.5 times greater than that when they are flagged – so 100,000?
A: Correct

Q: But their NTI target for increase doesn’t change?
A: Again correct

Q: Is it likely a player will increase in value or even people buying him in if they are flagged?
A: It could be. Let’s say a player got flagged red as they were being suspended for 1 game for receiving 5 yellow cards. This might not put people off from keeping this player, if they are in the knowledge that he will be back next game. Plus, if this player is already on a rise, there is no reason that more teams won’t buy him and bench him for one week.

Q: So what is protection all about?
A: If a player is red or yellow flagged for 2 days or more, once their (i) icon goes back to grey, they are protected for 8 days.

Q: What does that effectively mean?
A: It means that for the next 8 days their price is frozen. It can neither rise nor fall. Once the 8 days is up, the player’s NTI or NTO is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases kick in from there.

Q: So their price is only frozen once the flag is lifted, not whilst they are flagged?
A: Correct

Q: But what happens if they are only red/yellow flagged for 1 day?
A: Then there is no protection period – just their NTI/NTO target is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases start from there.

Q: So anything else I should know?
A: It’s important to remember that CTC will never be 100% accurate. It takes a lot of dedication from people who, in their spare time, are analysing the information we can gather from price rises and decreases and trying to accurately predict the formulas. Ultimately though, FPL will never reveal their formulas and therefore the CTC team will always be half a step behind. It’s bit like a game of cat and mouse. Sometimes we manage to paw the mouse and sometimes it manages to go left, when we’re still chasing right.

So if you notice something is wrong (or went wrong) try and help us understand why a player increased/decreased when we were not expecting him to or why a player DIDN’T increase/decrease when we were expecting it!

Q: Thanks for all the help
A: No problem at all

Q: So now I’m ready to use CTC?
A: You were always ready to use CTC, you just never knew it!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Dirk Doombeck » 11 Aug 2012, 17:32

Great stuff. Cheers.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by diamondplus » 11 Aug 2012, 21:55

Flyman wrote:Over the past few seasons, due to the diligence and hard work of diamondplus and the FISO boffins, we have been able to offer an explanation of FPL price changes and the World Famous 'FISO Crack the Code' site detailing potential price risers, fallers and those players who are protected.

A link to this year's CtC can be found here.

A link to Stuboy's HELP page is here
Please use this thread to ask CtC-related questions not answered in the FAQ above.

A link to last year's thread is here.

Those wishing to understand the mechanisms of FPL price changes can read what we understood to be the case (in the 10-11 season) in the first few posts of this thread.

Note: At this stage I am simply presuming that diamondplus will be updating the CTC site. Here's hoping and my gratitude if he does! :)

Please keep this thread dedicated to Crack the Code debate, especially in the first few weeks when analysis is at its peak. Thank you.
I'll try (:


I had a quick look and technically speaking, it looks like the FPL coders haven't changed too much behind the scenes. I'm predicting a lot of tweaking the first weekend.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Flyman » 11 Aug 2012, 22:19

Hip ....

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by From4corners » 12 Aug 2012, 08:46

Hop ....

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Flyman » 12 Aug 2012, 09:37

Hooray!
(Almost worked!) :wink:

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CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Mystery » 12 Aug 2012, 17:34

I discovered in the last couple of weeks how to get this data myself so will be interested to see if it can help me play this game finally! Will hopefully mean I can contribute in here too.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by diamondplus » 18 Aug 2012, 14:31

Okay kids, I've got something up and running. CrackTheCode appears to be automatically grabbing and calculating data. As for the rise thresholds, your guess is as good as mine.

On a side note, for the more technically minded amongst you, the individual player Webservice link appears to be very temperamental so for now I'm grabbing the data from the JSON data behind the transfer page. We'll see how it goes and what data we need throughout the season.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by organdonor47 » 18 Aug 2012, 15:27

wonderful!! thanks mister

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by apolk27 » 18 Aug 2012, 20:05

thank you...you turned my whole season around last year

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Three6mafia » 18 Aug 2012, 21:43

Just had a look at CTC now. Why is the target NTI so high? I swear in the past it never got anywhere near as high as the 170620 it is at the moment. Have i missed something in the information articles?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by fourleafclover » 18 Aug 2012, 23:43

I think the idea is to wait until the first price rises then use the NTI to set the new threshold.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by elnino84 » 19 Aug 2012, 03:18

Whats up with CTC? its messed up ,all the players have wrong team beside them.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by DavidLuiz4 » 19 Aug 2012, 14:28

Try it on firefox. It seems as if it's displaying old data from last season on Chrome but works fine on Firefox, I am a computer idiot so I could not begin to explain why that is happening...

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by organdonor47 » 19 Aug 2012, 17:24

anyone remember when the price changes actually kick in? i know we didnt learn anything from last season, but the season before i think it was the monday night?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by megamince » 19 Aug 2012, 18:35

organdonor47 wrote:anyone remember when the price changes actually kick in? i know we didnt learn anything from last season, but the season before i think it was the monday night?
My thoughts exactly. I remember that it takes a few days to kick in from previous seasons. Would really like to know about Aguero injury news before doing my planned transfer of mata :arrow: michu

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by organdonor47 » 19 Aug 2012, 18:41

i did exactly that anyway, will be the first of many this week no doubt :oops:

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by megamince » 19 Aug 2012, 19:04

Looking at your team, you have a pretty much identical scenario to me. The same 3 Chelsea players to get rid of, Aguero and Maloney injuries and £2m in the bank for I guess a proposed transfer of Torres to Rooney?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by organdonor47 » 19 Aug 2012, 19:08

think torres will get a stay of execution depending on news about aguero, so probably aguero to rvp and maloney to kagawa (maybe :? ) for an 8 pointer. deary me. just did the michu thing today because if we do get rises tonight then i'll be 0.1 short for that if i decide to do it.

you planning rooney in then?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by megamince » 19 Aug 2012, 19:32

Was planning rooney in for torres but can wait a week. Was gonna get michu then sell for hazard gw4 as not keen on mata, so i guess i can afford a price rise and wait on injury news. Manu striker is essential for me from gw4 for captaincy reasons

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by blahblah » 19 Aug 2012, 19:37

I know that I should know better, but is Fabio likely to drop?

In 4.4% of teams and 1212 Transfers Out.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by organdonor47 » 19 Aug 2012, 19:47

in my opinion definitely not tonight, that doesn't seem to be anywhere near enough NTOs. cant remember the maths but i think the ownership would need to be much lower for him to be in trouble...

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by kai_ballz » 20 Aug 2012, 01:47

will aguero drop in the next update?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by The Real Slim Shady » 20 Aug 2012, 02:08

I don't think anyone is going to rise or drop tonight.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by fred1266 » 20 Aug 2012, 02:10

The Real Slim Shady wrote:I don't think anyone is going to rise or drop tonight.
only song and Luka would drop i think

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by fodzilla » 20 Aug 2012, 05:39

Michu up, Song down.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by kai_ballz » 20 Aug 2012, 06:30

awesome; can keep holding aguero den

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by mad dog » 20 Aug 2012, 08:37

Quick question so how many people have to bring in/ship out someone before there is a price change? And does this only go up at a certain point each day? So if it's 50,000 people need to sell Aguero then his prices goes down can you see that 50,000 have got rid and then know you have till midnight to switch him out before you lose money on him?

And say I have a player who goes up 0.1m and I sell them does that mean I have 0.1m more to bring someone else in?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by wibble_mcwoo » 20 Aug 2012, 09:13

Could someone let me know how Torres' transfers and going, please? I'm on my blackberry and it doesn't let me click through to the fallers on crack the code!

Better yet, if someone knows a direct link to the fallers or a way I might get them from blackberry, that would be superb. Ruddy family holiday in the first week of the season!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2012/13 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by kai_ballz » 20 Aug 2012, 09:53

i'm no expert in CTC but it looks like torres is not even close to changing in price

aguero though... worrying. 40k transfers out already

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