When Liverpool win the league..

[MOBIUS]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51163821

Interesting that failing a highly unlikely and unprecedented capitulation by Liverpool, the article suggest that the title could be in the bag by 14 March - if City and Liverpool remain true to form; or 4 April if City win all their subsequent games.
However it pans out it will leave a good few GWs where we might have to factor in some Liverpool rotation. Obviously it's a case of crossing that bridge when we get to it, but I'm a bit bored and am interested in any speculation and discussion.

[blahblah]

It could be WC time for my lot.

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

I think it might be for me as well. Liverpool's great fixture run comes to an end and they may well be resting players. Quite a fixture swing just after the blank GW in 31 when we should have plenty of DGW info.

[Stu255]

Will they take their foot off the gas though?

If I were Klopp, I would be a bit hesitant to change anything for fear of not getting it back, I think they just have to power on, relentlessly and unapologetically destroying every team. Otherwise you invite all kinds of distractions and bad habits into the camp. There will be different schools of thought on this, but in this day and age the psychology / culture in the dressing room probably trumps the physiological reasons for resting?

Even if you break a star player, that's probably preferable to eroding the winning culture because that's something you cannot buy.


Bizarrely, I think it's more likely that we see other managers resting their players against Liverpool. It's a fixture where you have 95.6% chance of getting 0 points.
If I was David Moyes why would you even blow the energy contesting that? (Moyes will because he is stupid).

But if you have Liverpool one week and a £150 million relegation 6 pointer v's Brighton the following week, what's the smart thing to do?

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

I don't think they will rest the whole side but it would perhaps be sensible to leave 1 or 2 out each game. Combined with the drop off in fixtures and some great fixtures for City it might be the right time to move some things about. Way too early to know but likely imo

[murf]

All depends on the CL.

Go out and all to care for will be records.
Result = Big focus on league.

Stay in and CL takes priority.
Result = Rests in league games.

(May also be focus on FA Cup/double if make semis)

[Zimmerman]

With a fully fit squad they will be able to rest players and still put out a strong team.

Genuinely don’t think Klopp would target records at the expense of trophies.

Whilst I disagree about the ‘winning culture’ angle, there is also some evidence about easing off on the gas having a negative affect (in terms of match sharpness).

With Lovren they have 6 players for 4 positions (in defence). Throw in Williams and Milner then there are more options at fullback (Williams looked more than capable in the game against Everton... so in a first team that are cruising to the season end, he wouldn’t be out of place).

Trent
Gomez
VvD
Lovren
Matip
Robertson
——————
Williams
Milner

3 from 5 in midfield (6 with Milner)
Fabinho
Henderson
Wijnaldum
Chamberlain
Lallana

Shaqiri
Minamino
Origi

As backups for Mane, Salah, Firmino


So whilst it won’t be a case of resting 8,9 or 10 players; 2 or 3 could step in without too much detriment.

Lovren
Milner
Shaqiri
Lallana
Origi

All started the league game against Everton. If the option (and opponent) facilitates it, then I think he’ll do it.

[Pirlo's Beard]

3 from 5 in midfield (6 with Milner)
Fabinho
Henderson
Wijnaldum
Chamberlain
Lallana

What about poor Naby?

[Zimmerman]

Out of sight, out of mind

[math!]

They won't go rotation crazy because
1) If they lose their form it could have an effect on the cups and it could even continue into the following season.
2) Individual honours. Mane and Salah in particular would be annoyed if they were overprotected.
3) Top players want to play every minute. Again they'll be annoyed.

[Zimmerman]

Disagree with 1... remember when people said throwing the domestic cups would affect them? Momentum, winning mentality etc.?

I don’t think Klopp particularly cares for the FA Cup... but if he has the chance of making sure players are rested for a CL game (if the league is already a secured); he’s going to isnt he?

As I alluded to above, having completely rested players can be counter productive though. So rotation will be akin to what we see with Pep on a weekly basis. They’ll all get a rest at some point.

Disagree with 2 and 3 (what Klopp wants will overshadow individuals’ wishes).

[Pirlo's Beard]

I disagree with the notion that Klopp won't rotate heavily if Liverpool have the league wrapped up early and are still gunning for the Champions League. I distinctly remembered him putting out some weakened Premier League lineups in the latter stages of Liverpool's run to the Europa League final in 2016, so I went back and checked: there was indeed significant rotation, but it was concentrated mainly around the semi-final and the final.

They played Villarreal in the semi-final. First leg away, Thursday April 28th. Second leg at home the following Thursday, May 5th. Sandwiched in between those two legs was a league visit to Swansea on Sunday May 1st. A Thursday-Sunday-Thursday schedule, with the league game on the Sunday featuring heavy rotation (eight changes from the previous Thursday)...

Villarreal (April 28th): Mignolet; Clyne, Lovren, Touré, Moreno; Milner, Lucas, Allen; Lallana, Firmino, Coutinho.

Swansea (May 1st): Ward; Clyne, Lovren, Škrtel, Smith; Ojo, Chirivella, Stewart, Ibe; Coutinho; Sturridge.

Villarreal (May 5th): Mignolet; Clyne, Lovren, Touré, Moreno; Lallana, Milner, Can, Coutinho; Firmino; Sturridge.

Only Clyne, Coutinho, and Lovren played all three games. Then three days after the semi-final second leg, they played Watford at home on the Sunday. Again, Klopp made eight changes to a presumably tired team...

Watford (May 8th): Mignolet; Flanagan, Škrtel, Lucas, Moreno; Allen, Stewart; Ojo, Coutinho, Ibe; Benteke.

That was the penultimate league game. Their final league game was played the following Sunday, May 15th, just three days before the Europa League final against Sevilla on Wednesday May 18th, and so Klopp once again played a second-string lineup...

West Brom (May 15th): Bogdán; Flanagan, Škrtel, Lucas, Smith; Brannagan, Allen, Stewart; Ibe, Benteke, Ojo.

Three days later it was back to full strength for the Europa League final...

Sevilla (May 18th): Mignolet; Clyne, Lovren, Touré, Moreno; Milner, Can; Lallana, Firmino, Coutinho; Sturridge.

In summary, if Liverpool go deep in the Champions League with the league already won, I expect Klopp to rotate the shit out of his team over the final few weeks of the season.

[Pirlo's Beard]

Although it's worth pointing out that Liverpool won't face the problem of a European final just three days after their final league game this time around: the Champions League final is a full thirteen days after the final Premier League game.

The major rotation pressure points in Liverpool's run-in (assuming continual Champions League progression) appear to be Aston Villa at home in GW33, which is sandwiched between the two legs of the quarter-final, and Arsenal away in GW36, which is sandwiched between the two legs of the semi-final. That's as things stand - FA Cup progression and potential fixture rearrangements could of course complicate things further.

[tarkens]

When Liverpool win the league I'll be off to Popworld

I hope they clinch the title at Anfield though cause I want to witness it live

[Smurphy Paw]

Although it's worth pointing out that Liverpool won't face the problem of a European final just three days after their final league game this time around: the Champions League final is a full thirteen days after the final Premier League game.

The major rotation pressure points in Liverpool's run-in (assuming continual Champions League progression) appear to be Aston Villa at home in GW33, which is sandwiched between the two legs of the quarter-final, and Arsenal away in GW36, which is sandwiched between the two legs of the semi-final. That's as things stand - FA Cup progression and potential fixture rearrangements could of course complicate things further.

Good post PB. Too early for the speculation for me, but a couple of specifics to keep an eye out for is something my little brain can cope with.
Of the two a rotated team can cope with Villa. But equally from this far out this looks to be in the period where the league might be won so they’ll all want to be playing
And if the League is still live in GW36 they’ll maybe not be the must-haves they are now. This second one does look like a game where rotation is a genuine consideration

[murf]

If the league is still live in GW36 then you should have shifted from Liverpool to City (/Leicester?) several weeks before that!

[Resonare]

My 2 cents...say we do win the league against City, I'm fairly sure we will see XIs similar to the ones that started the Everton and Bournemouth games (in December) from that point on. Invincibility only comes into play with 4-5 games to go, otherwise it's like talking about winning the CL while in the group stage with loads of games still to play. So if the league is won early, I'd expect only one of Salah and Mane to start any given league game while the cup competitions are still on.

[Bob Newhart]

if you have Liverpool one week and a £150 million relegation 6 pointer v's Brighton the following week, what's the smart thing to do?

Sack Moyes.

[blahblah]

if you have Liverpool one week and a £150 million relegation 6 pointer v's Brighton the following week, what's the smart thing to do?

Sack Moyes.

And whoever appointed the "winner" https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/50950041

[Zimmerman]

and he's actually being deadly serious isn't he?!


"They are getting a very experienced Premier League manager," said Moyes.

"I think there's only two or three managers with a better Premier League win record. That's what I do, I win.


Whilst not strictly a lie, comparing your record after 500+ games to someone with significantly less is a bit disingenuous (do we reckon Sullivan did any due diligence or took him on his word)?

Maybe he should have mentioned that only 4 managers have lost more games than him*

* I've no idea if this is true!

Code: Select all

Sir Alex Ferguson	810	528	168	114	65.2
Jose Mourinho   	313	195	71	47	62.3
Arsene Wenger          	828	476	199	153	57.5
Rafael Benitez  	340	168	82	90	49.4
David Moyes      	526	204	144	178	38.8
Harry Redknapp   	641	236	167	238	36.8
Martin O'Neill    	359	130	115	114	36.2
Roy Hodgson     	308	107	78	123	34.7
Alan Pardew     	320	109	68	143	34.1
Sam Allardyce   	512	174	138	200	34
Mark Hughes     	466	158	127	181	33.9
Alan Curbishley 	328	108	85	135	32.9
Joe Kinnear      	302	97	92	113	32.1
Tony Pulis         	322	98	93	131	30.4
Steve Bruce      	412	117	113	182	28.4
--------------------------------------------------------
Jurgen Klopp     	167	108	39	20	64.7

[blahblah]

Oh yes. Very serious.....

[Stu255]

As of 21/11/2019...

WIN % MANAGER PL CLUBS
75% Pep Guardiola Man City
67% Antonio Conte Chelsea
65% Alex Ferguson Man United
63% Carlo Ancelotti Chelsea
62% Jose Mourinho Chelsea, Man United
62% Jurgen Klopp Liverpool
62% Roberto Mancini Man City
57% Arsene Wenger Arsenal
56% Luiz Felipe Scolari Chelsea
55% Maurizio Sarri Chelsea
54% Manuel Pellegrini Man City, West Ham
53% Guus Hiddink Chelsea
52% Mauricio Pochettino Southampton, Tottenham
52% Andre Villas-Boas Chelsea, Tottenham
51% Louis van Gaal Man United
50% Unai Emery Arsenal
49% Rafael Benitez Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle
48% Ole Gunnar Solskjaer Man United
48% Gianluca Vialli Chelsea
48% Roy Evans Liverpool
48% Kenny Dalglish Blackburn, Newcastle, Liverpool
48% Brendan Rodgers Swansea, Liverpool, Leicester
47% Gerard Houllier Liverpool, Aston Villa
47% Claudio Ranieri Chelsea, Leicester, Fulham
45% Bruce Rioch Arsenal
45% Ronald Koeman Southampton, Everton
44% Bobby Robson Newcastle
43% David O'Leary Leeds, Aston Villa
43% Kevin Keegan Newcastle, Man City
42% Tim Sherwood Tottenham, Aston Villa
40% John Gregory Aston Villa, Derby
40% Roberto Di Matteo West Brom, Chelsea
39% David Moyes Everton, Man United, West Ham

Moyes is 34th. The man he replaced is 11th.

West Ham deserve everything they get.

[Pirlo's Beard]

The man he replaced is 11th.

In fairness, the man he replaced won most of his games years ago at a club with infinitely greater resources. He wasn't exactly pulling up trees at West Ham.

[Stu255]

The man he replaced is 11th.

In fairness, the man he replaced won most of his games years ago at a club with infinitely greater resources. He wasn't exactly pulling up trees at West Ham.

Still 11th on the list, which includes a period managing West Ham.

Moyes is 34th even though he managed Man Utd as they defended the title.


Do we need to compare West Ham win rates under Pellegrini and Moyes?

[Pirlo's Beard]

Do we need to compare West Ham win rates under Pellegrini and Moyes?

We don't need to do anything. I was just pointing out that Pellegrini won most of his Premier League games at Man City, and did so badly at West Ham after replacing David Moyes that he ended up being sacked and replaced with David Moyes.

[Turd Ferguson]

Anyone care to do the leg work to look up if Klopp rested his starters the game after they won the league at Dortmund? It might give us a little leg up if we can do Salah > Son/Sterling/Dele/Martial and dodge a benching the week after Liverpool clinch the title.

Also, they might clinch it at Everton in GW30, which would mean the players get rested in 31, when everyone is banking on Liverpool players for the big FA cup blank gameweek. Could be a real bloodbath of low scores if that happens.

[Turd Ferguson]

Anyone care to do the leg work to look up if Klopp rested his starters the game after they won the league at Dortmund?

I decided to stop being lazy and do some homework. It looks like in 10/11 and 11/12, Dortmund won the game with two games to spare in both seasons.

In 2011, they played Werder Bremen on May 7th, and Klopp played essentially a first choice lineup, although they lost 2-0, so maybe the ambition wasn't there. He also played a full strength looking side in the final game of the season.

In 2012, they played Kaiserslautern on Apr 28th, and Klopp rotated several players. Most of the back line and Kagawa were rested. Grosskreutz and Blaszczykowski were rested as well. Based on number of appearances, they look like they were first choice that year, but it's hard to tell. I don't know enough about the team to say for sure. Lewandowski, their leading goal scorer that year, was NOT rested the game after they won the title. Klopp played a full strength team for the last game of the season.

This was a mixed bag. It doesn't seem like Klopp automatically rests players to let them celebrate the title. However, they went out of Europe early in both seasons, so perhaps a CL run for Liverpool this year will give him additional incentive to rotate.

[Zimmerman]

maybe more telling is his actions in preparation for the CL final (with Dortmund)?

At Liverpool
2016 - Thanks to Pirlo, we have seen how he prepared for Liverpools Europa final appearance.
2018 - I can't recall an easing off of lineups ahead of the Madrid game - although not sure on how assured we were of CL qualification
2019 - obviously the season went to the final game, so zero chance of rotating (both teams ended the season with something like 15 straight wins)

We've seen he completely ignores/dismisses the domestic cups if there is something more important at stake.

I think he could ease up (a bit) in the league if we are still going for the CL.
I'm not sure he will be too concerned with trying to get records - if the title is sealed. I think trophies before records.

There will be some rotation i am sure, but we won't see lineups like the Shrewsbury game.

[TheRumourMill]

Thanks for this. If we are cherry picking and for those not wanting to use the free hit in gw31, Liverpool going into that game needing a result to win the league would be ideal.

Then the opportunity to wildcard Liverpool players out becomes an option, as they play city in 32 and then villa in 33 between 2 CL legs.

Lots of football to be played before then though.

[Stu255]

Meh, who are you gonna replace the Liverpool players with?

City players? Or some players from a significantly worse football team? Out of the frying pan into the fire imo.

Would rather have 60 minutes of Salah / Mane than 90 minutes of any other player in the league.