Our Kevin

[From4corners]

To all those who strongly argued that you would not add KDB to your team because he doesn't provide value as you would not captain him, I just want to say please keep being stubborn and haha

[Archy]

There’s a decent argument for having Kane instead of Sterling/Aguero

I tried this at the start of the season but bottled it after the Sterling 20 point haul in GW1

Kane has been unspectacular so far, but is ticking along nicely enough. Of course he’s pretty much guaranteed not to get rested (an important consideration after seeing Sterling and Aguero benched the last 2 weeks) Furthermore, Spurs and Man City rotate home/away for most of the next 20 weeks which increases options for the captaincy if looking at KDB / Kane / Salah as your ‘go to’ guys for the armband.

[Mav3rick]

I deleted an initial example, something along the lines of Son and Firmino/Wilson instead of Mount and Aguero.
The reason I deleted it is that reducing by one the number of City premiums creates another conversation. Looking for the next best City player and how to fit him in to hold the max of three put me in wildcard territory before I saw any positive gains.
If you still have the WC this might be the reason to trigger it. Mav, I know you’ve had your finger hovering over the trigger for a week or two, for example!

That's pretty much how I see it too, the issue being that the argument about Sterling/Aguero being a waste of value compared to Son/Firmino also applies equally to Son over Mount for example.

It's a very tricky picture, but I mostly end up with the Aguero/Sterling savings going on to my 11th man, so perhaps allowing Digne as a 4th defender (as 11th man) or upgrading Cantwell rotation to Maddison.

I don't think that's a slam dunk either way, however I have managed to miss all of Lundstram's points via rotation so it has a certain appeal to me to just simplify the situation.

I guess another question is how much if at all, Sterling and Aguero will outscore KDB by finishing all these chances he makes.

[Oxford NZ]

In my situation having KDB, Sterling, Son, Mount, and Aguero in my squad leaves Aguero as the spare cog in the wheel, he can become Aubameyang and have cash left over with my FT to go Sterling to Salah ( in a few weeks time when the fixtures change).
Sterling could become Jorginho but feels wrong when I have Mount and I do not want an Arsenal mid at he moment.
Sorry for the rambling but our clocks have changed and I am trying to stay awake.
Long story short - having KDB allows me to drop Kun for Aubameyang and have cash left over. Thanks Kevin

edit to add ( some ) missing letters due to a dodgy keyboard and knackered fingers)

[Football Hero]

Is he still bad value then if you don't have him already?

I mean he is averaging 9ppg at the moment which is a 'Luiz Suarez in his pomp' level of performance, so if after say 14 games he has dropped to even 7ppg, (which is a great average for the season still), then he would have averaged 5ppg from GW8 to GW14. This means that I shouldn't get him in, particularly for 10.0M.

I guess what I am getting at is that surely he is 'due' some regression now, in which case I am best off avoiding picking up that regression myself by getting him in now right? I should wait for the regression to occur, and then maybe get him in later once it has happened? But then if he truly is a 9ppg player now, then there will be no regression and I will be getting murdered by the masses by not getting him in.

Two things. First, you're committing the gambler's fallacy. Regression to the mean doesn't mean that he's going to have bad performances to balance out his good performances. It just means that we can't expect the good performances to continue. We would expect him to have average performances that bring his season long total closer to his average. So if you think his "true" average is 7 pts/game, that comes out to 266 points for the season. He has 63 points right now, 9 pts/game. If he kept that up, season long that would make a total of 9*38 = 342. If he regresses to a mean of 7 we would expect 7*31=217 the rest of the way for a season total of 217+63=280, much closer to 266 than to 342. It's like if we see three or four heads in a row on a coin flip. That doesn't change the fact that it's still 50/50 going forward. We're not going to see extra tails to balance it out, it just gets closer to 50/50 over the long run. That initial run of heads gets washed away over time. Likewise, a hot start for De Bruyne doesn't necessitate that he blanks several times.

Second, however, you've cut to the heart of the matter. Even if he's only a 7 pts/game player, that still works out to 266 points over a season. I was looking at him as a guy who would get a handful of goals and maybe 20 assists, but that seems way too conservative given how awesome he looks. If De Bruyne is going to be the top scorer in the game or close to it, then we probably need to start captaining him and reconsider whether to own Sterling and Aguero at all, and figure out if we can distribute the funds elsewhere in a beneficial way. I'm going to roll with Aguero, KdB, and Otamendi for a few more weeks to see how all the City players perform, but as it stands now I'm thinking about a structure where De Bruyne is my only City premium come GW10 or 11.

With reference to your gambler's fallacy point, that normally applies to poker and other casino games where the probabilities really are fixed and unchanging.

With something like FPL, over a 4 or 6 or even 10 week period, player's can massively outperform or underperform their true season-long ppg by a big margin. For example Pukki was averaging almost 10ppg after the first 5 weeks, but clearly he would never be that good and sure enough, two blanks have come where his ppg has been massively hit.

I missed Sterling's first week where he got 20 points, meaning that even if I got Sterling in for the other 37 weeks I am guaranteed to 'run bad' with Sterling over the remainder of the season as his ppg for me, (GW2 - GW38), would be less than his actual ppg for the season as the period I didn't have him for he averaged 20ppg.

Therefore I am saying that future regression is something that we can 'know' and predict and account for it, if we feel confident that we have witnessed overperformance so far. As FPL managers we want to maximise our points by avoiding picking up blank scores just as much as getting hauls. Since we are only 7 weeks in, we are still looking at likely overperformance from someone like KDB are we not? Maybe this is why you are waiting until GW11 as you aren't convinced KDB is better than Sterling yet for the 'free' captain double-up that you get, (you will want the player with the long term higher ppg potential of the two).

[Football Hero]

To all those who strongly argued that you would not add KDB to your team because he doesn't provide value as you would not captain him, I just want to say please keep being stubborn and haha

I subscribed to this train of thought and now feel committed to not get him in now only to see him then fall back below Sterling and Aguero in terms of ppg. That way I would be picking up all of his pain and none of his gain which would be a fantasy disaster. I feel the only way for me to regain ground is to hope that KDB can't keep this level of performance up and that he does indeed provide bad value over the upcoming games.

[Arch Stanton]

To all those who strongly argued that you would not add KDB to your team because he doesn't provide value as you would not captain him, I just want to say please keep being stubborn and haha

I subscribed to this train of thought and now feel committed to not get him in now only to see him then fall back below Sterling and Aguero in terms of ppg. That way I would be picking up all of his pain and none of his gain which would be a fantasy disaster. I feel the only way for me to regain ground is to hope that KDB can't keep this level of performance up and that he does indeed provide bad value over the upcoming games.

I am a newcomer to this game but not to fantasy football and I have some advice. Get KBD in, I have watched him a lot this season and he is awesome. The things he does are innate and require no effort for from him. The only way he is not going to pick up points is if he is injured or carrying an injury or the whole team goes through a period of bad form. Otherwise he is not going to stop.

The way you are thinking about things is a bad way to play the game and you will end up losing ground because of it. i have done in myself with Salah a previous season and it hurt my team. The best way to approach this game is to get the players in that are going to score a lot of points then look at the rest of your team to be creative and find differentials.

[SirMattBugsby]

To all those who strongly argued that you would not add KDB to your team because he doesn't provide value as you would not captain him, I just want to say please keep being stubborn and haha

I subscribed to this train of thought and now feel committed to not get him in now only to see him then fall back below Sterling and Aguero in terms of ppg. That way I would be picking up all of his pain and none of his gain which would be a fantasy disaster. I feel the only way for me to regain ground is to hope that KDB can't keep this level of performance up and that he does indeed provide bad value over the upcoming games.

At 10m, he still is good value. Moreover, you can consider gaining more by captaining him in the next 4 GWs. I think the majority of KdB owners are still captaining other premium options.

It's difficult for KdB to keep up this rate, but he'll tick along nicely for atleast the next 4 GWs. And with his price, one would consider retaining him even for the tough run starting GW 12.

[Football Hero]

To all those who strongly argued that you would not add KDB to your team because he doesn't provide value as you would not captain him, I just want to say please keep being stubborn and haha

I subscribed to this train of thought and now feel committed to not get him in now only to see him then fall back below Sterling and Aguero in terms of ppg. That way I would be picking up all of his pain and none of his gain which would be a fantasy disaster. I feel the only way for me to regain ground is to hope that KDB can't keep this level of performance up and that he does indeed provide bad value over the upcoming games.

At 10m, he still is good value. Moreover, you can consider gaining more by captaining him in the next 4 GWs. I think the majority of KdB owners are still captaining other premium options.

It's difficult for KdB to keep up this rate, but he'll tick along nicely for atleast the next 4 GWs. And with his price, one would consider retaining him even for the tough run starting GW 12.

Unfortunately there are also team structure issues that don't allow me to get him in easily without tonnes of re-working and points hits, so I am basically committed down this route now.

[From4corners]

...
The way you are thinking about things is a bad way to play the game and you will end up losing ground because of it. i have done in myself with Salah a previous season and it hurt my team.

I agree. Same experience here with Ramsey and Yaya Touré in 2013/2014.

[Arch Stanton]

...
The way you are thinking about things is a bad way to play the game and you will end up losing ground because of it. i have done in myself with Salah a previous season and it hurt my team.

I agree. Same experience here with Ramsey and Yaya Touré in 2013/2014.

Yeah their are certain players you need in if you want to keep pace and KBD looks like one of those players this season. If it doesn't work out it is easier to transfer them out than try and make up the points elsewhere if they do continue in the same vein. I had to learn the hard way, the same as this dude is going to have to learn by the look of it.

[Nailer6245]

Just to 100% echo what the last few posters have said - swallow your pride, forget the sunk costs, and figure out some reasonable way to get him in now or in the very near future (assuming he's not injured, disregard then obviously). There's logic to what you're saying, but it's just not enough to override the fact that he's arguably the best player in the league's best side, and if you watch City play live, it's so obvious that he's central to everything they do. Honestly, his hauls so far this year could've been much, much higher.

Ask a fan: if their team was facing City - the best team in the league - and they could pick one player to miss the game through injury/suspension, KDB is the choice. He's running the show for a team scoring bucketloads, so imo, just get him in. Even at his current price he's fantastic value and everyone else owns him.

[RomynPG]

He's pretty special - so at ease/in control and has mad skillz



As long as he gets a few goals along the way as well and stays fit he'll have a great season and is a joy to watch.

[Stu255]

I had KDB, Laporte and Zinchenko from the start and switched Laporte to Otamendi when he got injured.

When Mendy reappeared I sold Zinchenko.

Currently have a spare City place and plan to sell Salah for Sterling. For approx 5 weeks. This seems to be the opposite of what others are doing?

[Zimmerman]

I’m toying with Salah -> KdB

The bonus is I can still celebrate Salah goals if he stars going crazy

[Sutter Kane]

I’m toying with Salah -> KdB

The bonus is I can still celebrate Salah goals if he stars going crazy

I'd check to see if KDB plays at home in C.L. - I have a feeling he won't or just get 60 minutes. If he looks like a starter at weekend, I'd 100% do this move and concoct a way to get Salah back later.

[Zimmerman]

Yep.

Luckily have two transfers as well, so can ditch Zinchenko to free up a city space too.

[thelimey]

https://www.skysports.com/football/news ... oin-injury

This doesn't sound good:

A City statement said: "Kevin De Bruyne suffered a groin injury in the win over Everton and will miss tonight's game against Dinamo Zagreb. The extent of his layoff depends on how well he responds to the rehabilitation programme overseen by the club's medical staff. Everyone at City wishes Kevin a speedy recovery and we all look forward to seeing him back in blue soon."

[Stu255]

https://www.skysports.com/football/news ... oin-injury

This doesn't sound good:

A City statement said: "Kevin De Bruyne suffered a groin injury in the win over Everton and will miss tonight's game against Dinamo Zagreb. The extent of his layoff depends on how well he responds to the rehabilitation programme overseen by the club's medical staff. Everyone at City wishes Kevin a speedy recovery and we all look forward to seeing him back in blue soon."

Eek and I was about to buy Sterling!

Can’t see Pep rushing KDB back at this stage of the season? Even best case he will only get 60mins and therefore no BP.
With so many hot transfers in, his price could unravel quite quickly too.


What are the alternatives? Son at Brighton then Watford?

[Gambit]

International break after this gw so if hes only missing this gw id be tempted to keep and just play cantwell home v villa. Three weeks might be enough rest for kdb to get fit

[TheRumourMill]

I wouldn't want Son as a replacement, he most likely misses the Watford game himself after 2 games for South Korea. Pepe doesn't look very good either, despite the attractive upcoming fixtures. I'd be tempted to stick Mahrez in if KDB is ruled out long term, if not I'll just hold onto KDB and happily accept Lundstram off the bench with an attractive fixture this week.

[bigcliff2]

Quite frustrating as my bench is pretty poor this week. It's either Greenwood, Rico or Soyuncu. Pity Saka isn't classed as a forward or I'd have just switched him in for Greenwood and played him.

[Mav3rick]

I guess Lundstram steps in this GW and reassess after the international break. Like many I'm sure I bought in at 9.5 so the first price drop is irrelevant anyway.

[math!]

International break after this gw so if hes only missing this gw id be tempted to keep and just play cantwell home v villa. Three weeks might be enough rest for kdb to get fit

Same as me.

[Panserjohan]

same as the comments above. Keeping, playing Soyasauce firsth bench. pretty safe 2-pointer. Bought at 9,5, so not selling.

[Blue Fire]

Had to take a call between Tomori and Soyuncu this week. Guess that's taken care of now

[Sutter Kane]

same as the comments above. Keeping, playing Soyasauce firsth bench. pretty safe 2-pointer. Bought at 9,5, so not selling.

At Liverpool, safe 1 pointer methinks!

Had to take a call between Tomori and Soyuncu this week. Guess that's taken care of now

Why would you choose to play Soyu at Liverpool anyway?! Leicester aren't that good!

With regards KDB injury, hopefully this doesn't turn into a Martial type situation.

[raoul]

same as the comments above. Keeping, playing Soyasauce firsth bench. pretty safe 2-pointer. Bought at 9,5, so not selling.

At Liverpool, safe 1 pointer methinks!

Had to take a call between Tomori and Soyuncu this week. Guess that's taken care of now

Why would you choose to play Soyu at Liverpool anyway?! Leicester aren't that good!

With regards KDB injury, hopefully this doesn't turn into a Martial type situation.

Leicester... I think this weekend we will find out. I think they are decent at home and don't look like a team who will concede more than one very often. Their favourable run from GW9? Too many away games for my liking but they'll do ok.

KdB. Couldn't agree more. He's on for a 300 season so let's hope he's not properly crocked.

[Zimmerman]

Will be a good test for both teams.

Personally, i think Soyu looks like a weak link... and depending on how much midweek has taken out of Liverpool, Soy could be a liability.

[Turd Ferguson]

Sounds like it's only going to be one game out.

Guardiola:
"It is not serious but he couldn't play today. We'll see for Sunday - right now I don't know. We're going to see if we take a risk. I think he will be fit after the international break."