Little Pea'd off? Wes your score 'King poor or were all your wishes Grant(ed)? GW31 scores!

[raoul]

20 from 8.

Oh and then there's the -12......

So 8 from 8. Whoop. But at least this was not a FH and I have that for next week.

Captained Wilson. Hey ho.

[Stu255]

32 (-4) with 4 to play, didn’t use FH after arguing against using chips in such a flat week with few points available. Only fielded 10, seems to be working so far.

How?!

Because I have outscored many/most of the people who blew (wasted) their FH chip.

This is complete and utter hindsight BS. Leicester scored 2, Bournemouth 2, West Ham 4, Newcastle 2. It is just happenstance (and quite extreme anti-luck) that, Rondon & Maddison apart, all the big guns (Vardy, Wilson, Fraser, Arnie, Anderson) failed to contribute much. There weren't few points available, they just went to an unusual cluster of players, which can happen sometimes but usually won't.

I didn't FH myself and never intended to but I consider those that did got quite unlucky today and that your hindsight derision lacks class.

So after last week when in each of my posts here (3) I said there would be fewer points this GW and so I felt it was a mistake to us the FH chip... and now with just 2 games left the average FPL team score is 6.

That was hindsight BS?

GW31 was a poor time to FH, evidence shows this. What was an example of luck wasn’t the poor luck of those who chose to FH. But my good luck in beating the average by 26pts and scoring in the 99th percentile for the week.

I have been lucky and am tonight #1 in the FISO chips league having gone into that mini league with literally the very worst overall rank out of everyone (1,340,000 last week). That is the anomaly, not the fact that the GW31 FH underwhelmed, that was predictable.

[Bixer]

10 with 6 to play, including captain Salah

Glad I didn’t bother taking any hits in the end and just settled for fielding 9

[Zimmerman]

32 (-4) with 4 to play, didn’t use FH after arguing against using chips in such a flat week with few points available. Only fielded 10, seems to be working so far.

How?!

Because I have outscored many/most of the people who blew (wasted) their FH chip.

This is complete and utter hindsight BS. Leicester scored 2, Bournemouth 2, West Ham 4, Newcastle 2. It is just happenstance (and quite extreme anti-luck) that, Rondon & Maddison apart, all the big guns (Vardy, Wilson, Fraser, Arnie, Anderson) failed to contribute much. There weren't few points available, they just went to an unusual cluster of players, which can happen sometimes but usually won't.

I didn't FH myself and never intended to but I consider those that did got quite unlucky today and that your hindsight derision lacks class.

So far the dream team is worth 94 points from just three games and on a day with no clean sheets. That’s decent scoring.
I don’t own a single one of them, but that’s both the point and somewhat irrelevant.

Good score Stu. King worked out well for those of you who kept him. That doesn’t validate your analysis

Is it complete BS?
Surely the fact the majority of players available are from lesser teams means the likelihood of hauls is reduced (or more precarious)

You (Ruth) describe them as “big guns”... they aren’t. There’s a reason these players 6-9m. There more risk than a Hazard or Aguero type. They are the best of the rest, but there’s less consistency.

Wilson 13/22 starts has he managed 5+ points
King 9/27
Vardy 9/24
Fraser 10/29
Arnie 7/16 (not forgetting his lack of minutes for the last 10 weeks)
Anderson 10/30

Clean sheets also at a premium

Bournemouth 8/31
Leicester 7/31
Burnley 6/31
West Ham 5/31

So I think expecting to clean up on points with the matches available (yesterday) is perhaps optimistic. It could be argued that if someone had nailed it, that is fortunate (rather than not nailing it being unlucky).

[OIEIAO]

28(-4) with 4 to go. Salah (triple captain), 2 Liverpool defenders and Higuain.

"Stars" of this relatively good show
Rondon 8
Ogbonna 7
Lanzini 5
Yedlin 4

I had 2 atrocious weeks before this so this is a small step back in the right direction.

Performances of Salah vs Mane and Hazard is going to be the critical factor this week.

An example of the fine margins and good/bad fortune in this game - I resolved to buy Higuain and Adam Smith on Friday a week ago. I planned to discuss with a friend that night but didn't. got home at 1.30am to find I'd missed the price changes by 30 mins.... Doherty had dropped 0.1 and I was priced out of the move (I knew this was coming but late night etc etc). I settled for Ogbonna instead of Smith. They scored a point a piece last week but Smith got injured. This week Ogbonna got me a goal! So that mistake could have gained me somewhere between 4 and 11 points.

[raoul]

32 (-4) with 4 to play, didn’t use FH after arguing against using chips in such a flat week with few points available. Only fielded 10, seems to be working so far.

How?!

Because I have outscored many/most of the people who blew (wasted) their FH chip.

This is complete and utter hindsight BS. Leicester scored 2, Bournemouth 2, West Ham 4, Newcastle 2. It is just happenstance (and quite extreme anti-luck) that, Rondon & Maddison apart, all the big guns (Vardy, Wilson, Fraser, Arnie, Anderson) failed to contribute much. There weren't few points available, they just went to an unusual cluster of players, which can happen sometimes but usually won't.

I didn't FH myself and never intended to but I consider those that did got quite unlucky today and that your hindsight derision lacks class.

So far the dream team is worth 94 points from just three games and on a day with no clean sheets. That’s decent scoring.
I don’t own a single one of them, but that’s both the point and somewhat irrelevant.

Good score Stu. King worked out well for those of you who kept him. That doesn’t validate your analysis

Is it complete BS?
Surely the fact the majority of players available are from lesser teams means the likelihood of hauls is reduced (or more precarious)

You (Ruth) describe them as “big guns”... they aren’t. There’s a reason these players 6-9m. There more risk than a Hazard or Aguero type. They are the best of the rest, but there’s less consistency.

Wilson 13/22 starts has he managed 5+ points
King 9/27
Vardy 9/24
Fraser 10/29
Arnie 7/16 (not forgetting his lack of minutes for the last 10 weeks)
Anderson 10/30

Clean sheets also at a premium

Bournemouth 8/31
Leicester 7/31
Burnley 6/31
West Ham 5/31

So I think expecting to clean up on points with the matches available (yesterday) is perhaps optimistic. It could be argued that if someone had nailed it, that is fortunate (rather than not nailing it being unlucky).

While I appreciate they were cup games, MC and MC also failed to CS yesterday. In fact, nobody did.

There were gains to be had (Mrs R has 20 and 7 players left so I am getting a lot of earache), but so many players with potential didn't do anything.

[Owsler]

12 with 3 Liverpool (Salah C) and hopefully 3 Chelsea to go. Doubt I'd have gone with King, but picking Wilson over him this week is a gutpunch.

[Billy Bongo]

32 (-4) with 4 to play, didn’t use FH after arguing against using chips in such a flat week with few points available. Only fielded 10, seems to be working so far.

How?!

Because I have outscored many/most of the people who blew (wasted) their FH chip.

This is complete and utter hindsight BS. Leicester scored 2, Bournemouth 2, West Ham 4, Newcastle 2. It is just happenstance (and quite extreme anti-luck) that, Rondon & Maddison apart, all the big guns (Vardy, Wilson, Fraser, Arnie, Anderson) failed to contribute much. There weren't few points available, they just went to an unusual cluster of players, which can happen sometimes but usually won't.

I didn't FH myself and never intended to but I consider those that did got quite unlucky today and that your hindsight derision lacks class.

So after last week when in each of my posts here (3) I said there would be fewer points this GW and so I felt it was a mistake to us the FH chip... and now with just 2 games left the average FPL team score is 6.

That was hindsight BS?

GW31 was a poor time to FH, evidence shows this. What was an example of luck wasn’t the poor luck of those who chose to FH. But my good luck in beating the average by 26pts and scoring in the 99th percentile for the week.

I have been lucky and am tonight #1 in the FISO chips league having gone into that mini league with literally the very worst overall rank out of everyone (1,340,000 last week). That is the anomaly, not the fact that the GW31 FH underwhelmed, that was predictable.

I think you miss the point a bit, there are still two games left and the free hitters will have 5 or 6 players today including captain. Yet you've dived in half way through the week for no other reason than to declare yourself right and free hitters wrong. So in that regard i agree with Ruth, you post lacked class.

The time to have done this would have been a forensic analysis AFTER all games , not jump I'm as soon as you can with weapons grade harry hindsight.

Plus decisions should be analysed not on the outcome but the information available at the time they were made. Looking back is easy

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[ajcairns]

32 (-4) with 4 to play, didn’t use FH after arguing against using chips in such a flat week with few points available. Only fielded 10, seems to be working so far.

How?!

Because I have outscored many/most of the people who blew (wasted) their FH chip.

This is complete and utter hindsight BS. Leicester scored 2, Bournemouth 2, West Ham 4, Newcastle 2. It is just happenstance (and quite extreme anti-luck) that, Rondon & Maddison apart, all the big guns (Vardy, Wilson, Fraser, Arnie, Anderson) failed to contribute much. There weren't few points available, they just went to an unusual cluster of players, which can happen sometimes but usually won't.

I didn't FH myself and never intended to but I consider those that did got quite unlucky today and that your hindsight derision lacks class.

So after last week when in each of my posts here (3) I said there would be fewer points this GW and so I felt it was a mistake to us the FH chip... and now with just 2 games left the average FPL team score is 6.

That was hindsight BS?

GW31 was a poor time to FH, evidence shows this. What was an example of luck wasn’t the poor luck of those who chose to FH. But my good luck in beating the average by 26pts and scoring in the 99th percentile for the week.

I have been lucky and am tonight #1 in the FISO chips league having gone into that mini league with literally the very worst overall rank out of everyone (1,340,000 last week). That is the anomaly, not the fact that the GW31 FH underwhelmed, that was predictable.

I think you miss the point a bit, there are still two games left and the free hitters will have 5 or 6 players today including captain. Yet you've dived in half way through the week for no other reason than to declare yourself right and free hitters wrong. So in that regard i agree with Ruth, you post lacked class.

The time to have done this would have been a forensic analysis AFTER all games , not jump I'm as soon as you can with weapons grade harry hindsight.

Plus decisions should be analysed not on the outcome but the information available at the time they were made. Looking back is easy

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This is the bit that lacks class, and seems to have been largely ignored:

“didn’t use FH after arguing against using chips”

He did use it because he couldn’t. He’s already used it.

[Patrician]

So after last week when in each of my posts here (3) I said there would be fewer points this GW and so I felt it was a mistake to us the FH chip... and now with just 2 games left the average FPL team score is 6.

That was hindsight BS?

GW31 was a poor time to FH, evidence shows this. What was an example of luck wasn’t the poor luck of those who chose to FH. But my good luck in beating the average by 26pts and scoring in the 99th percentile for the week.

I have been lucky and am tonight #1 in the FISO chips league having gone into that mini league with literally the very worst overall rank out of everyone (1,340,000 last week). That is the anomaly, not the fact that the GW31 FH underwhelmed, that was predictable.

In FPL we always need to be able separate the outcome from the rationale. A good decision can end up delivering poor points (shit happens), and a bad decision can deliver good points (thank the lucky stars). Knowing the difference is key to good FPL play.

Clearly there were plenty of points on offer yesterday, they just happenend to fall to the players not normally the highest potential points scorers. Little Pea vs Arnie, King vs Wilson, Grant vs Anyone, Morgan vs other Lei defenders. Most FH teams would chose the normally best available players who happened to not deliver despite lots of goals. Had Arnie, Vardy, Wilson hauled, different story, easily could have happened.

The rationale you made for not FHing yesterday was that there wasn't going to be many points on offer. There were. Had you said that a Free Hit in a single gameweek is not the best use of that chip, better to have two swings of the bat than one, then few would argue. Precision on rationale is taken seriously here

[Billy Bongo]

So he already used his FH, maybe it was wasted, dunno, then jumps in after 3 games this week claiming the free hitters wasted theirs as well, and uses his 'good' score as proof? Ruth was right, lacks class. I think alcohol might be involved or just FH bitterness

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[Stu255]

Guys, great that we are finally discussing this but lets turn the temperature down a little.

I'm not sure of the charges of "hindsight" when I have been saying this all week. Surely "hindsight" would only be a fair criticism if I had first said this AFTER the event?

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=129870&p=3300194#p3300194

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=129870&p=3300838#p3300838

viewtopic.php?f=99&t=128711&p=3302306#p3302306

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=129870&p=3302774#p3302774


Also apologies for "lacking class", when my team scores a goal I normally cheer at the time of the goal.
I don't usually wait until the final whistle to cheer a goal as some of the logic here would suggest is the right thing to do.

If my halfway GW cheering for me team offends people then I am sorry. Genuinely sorry about that. Didn't realise this was scowled upon. I won't do it again.


Also those who have pointed out that I have already used my FH. Yes. This is correct. This is what I was saying last week. See posts above. I used my FH in a BGW and regretted it. I analysed that GW and realised it is a mathematical strategic blunder to play such a chip in a BGW (because of the bell curve points distribution for FPL managers has a narrower base in BGW). Tried to start a discussion on here about it a few times but failed. Used to post such analysis here at the start of the season but it created lots of problems for the forum. Stick to discussion now.

Anyway enjoy the rest of the weekends football. I will enjoy my final 2 hours at the zenith of the FISO chips league (even though I have the worst OR in the whole league).
Yay me!! (sorry again).

Capture.PNG

Apologies if that is off topic / lacks class / or some other forum faux pas. That's football.

[raoul]

So he already used his FH, maybe it was wasted, dunno, then jumps in after 3 games this week claiming the free hitters wasted theirs as well, and uses his 'good' score as proof? Ruth was right, lacks class. I think alcohol might be involved or just FH bitterness

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The one thing this all proves is that rationale is a very difficult thing to get right when in hindsight.

Now watch Stu go win the Chips League

[Billy Bongo]

Hes made the cardinal error of a reply so long no one will read it, anyway think i saw let's cool it down a bit, I agree

The time to analyse will be after today's games . My guess will be the following will happen.

Some free hitters will be happy
Some won't
Some none free hitters will be happy
Some won't

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[Stu255]

Hes made the cardinal error of a reply so long no one will read it, anyway think i saw let's cool it down a bit, I agree

The time to analyse will be after today's games . My guess will be the following will happen.

Some free hitters will be happy
Some won't
Some none free hitters will be happy
Some won't

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[Ruth_NZ]

"Hindsight" had nothing to do with whether you made the argument beforehand, Stu. I know quite well that you did.

My use of the word related to the fact that you jumped in as soon as possible when the outcome appears to be in your favour (we are only half way through) to tell the managers that had used the FH that they had 'blown' it. Let me ask you a question. If Wilson had scored twice yesterday rather than King; if Arnie had scored twice rather than Chicha; if Leicester hadn't gone down to 10 men after 4 minutes, despite which they still managed to score twice (and none of those alternative outcomes would have been any surprise at all); would you then have used hindsight to come on here saying that the FH managers had nailed the chip and that you had been wrong?

No, thought not. I imagine we'd have heard nothing but a deafening silence until the next bee arrived in your bonnet.

That's what I meant by hindsight. And that's what I meant by lacking class.

[Stu255]

If Wilson had scored twice yesterday rather than King; if Arnie had scored twice rather than Chicha; if Leicester hadn't gone down to 10 men after 4 minutes, despite which they still managed to score twice (and none of those alternative outcomes would have been any surprise at all); would you then have used hindsight to come on here saying that the FH managers had nailed the chip and that you had been wrong?

Yes of course I would still say they had wasted it, because people using the same chip in GW32 or GW35 will get vastly more value for it.

GW31 was predicted to be and was a low scoring GW.

Of all the GW’s this season GW31 is likely to contribute the least to your year end total.

GW32 and GW35 are likely to contribute the most. So it makes sense to use the chips to boost the biggest game weeks. To capture the most points.

You seem to be wilfully missing my point and conflating two separate things.

a). Use of FH in a BGW is a bad idea. Literally the worst GW of the whole season to use the chip.
b). Stu (rather fortuitously) did very well in GW31

This are two very separate issues.

I apologies for outperforming, but I don’t apologise for my position on the use of FH in a BGW. It’s a misuse of the chip. I know it is. I made the same mistake earlier in the season.

Also we are far apart on what hindsight is. Your definition of hindsight is me commenting mid contest? That’s not my understand of the word.
For my definition of hindsight, see your text quoted above as a near perfect example.

Look if GW A has a mean FPL score of 30 and lower quartile of 20 and an upper quartile of 43 and GW B has a mean FPL score of 75, a lower quartile of 45 and an upper quartile of 115 then which GW should you use FH?
[The answer is B for anyone not following.]

The individual events of the week are irrelevant because the outcomes are not known at the time of the decision but you can gauge the probability of the bell curve for any given GW and you should use your chips to maximise your end of season total and not to try and get a green arrow or a high GW rank on a particular week.

Anyway, science says it is almost in possible for someone to change their mind in public in front of others so I don’t expect anyone to suddenly agree with me, even when all evidence is on my side. Personal slights are the normal human response to new thinking.
We can revisit this another time when it will probably be more productive and less personal.

[raoul]

If Wilson had scored twice yesterday rather than King; if Arnie had scored twice rather than Chicha; if Leicester hadn't gone down to 10 men after 4 minutes, despite which they still managed to score twice (and none of those alternative outcomes would have been any surprise at all); would you then have used hindsight to come on here saying that the FH managers had nailed the chip and that you had been wrong?

Yes of course I would still say they had wasted it, because people using the same chip in GW32 or GW35 will get vastly more value for it.

GW31 was predicted to be and was a low scoring GW.

Of all the GW’s this season GW31 is likely to contribute the least to your year end total.

GW32 and GW35 are likely to contribute the most. So it makes sense to use the chips to boost the biggest game weeks. To capture the most points.

You seem to be wilfully missing my point and conflating two separate things.

a). Use of FH in a BGW is a bad idea. Literally the worst GW of the whole season to use the chip.
b). Stu (rather fortuitously) did very well in GW31

This are two very separate issues.

I apologies for outperforming, but I don’t apologise for my position on the use of FH in a BGW. It’s a misuse of the chip. I know it is. I made the same mistake earlier in the season.

Stu, GW31 is not low scoring. The issue is that players who normally would be expected, as a group, to score well simply didn't. The low scoring by many managers this week is not because it is a low scoring week, it is because most went with predictable player choices and many more than usual failed to deliver. The low average is made worse because inactive teams may have fielded almost nobody.

I would argue that a FH in 31 was a poor idea more because:

- you would lose your 31 team for 33, when similar players would probably be needed
- a FH in 32, where we will only know the full fixtures after 31, would seem better than planning for 32 partially in the dark

Simply saying that playing a FH in a BGW is a stupid idea is too simplistic. Of course, some on here say that we are all rubbish at FPL, so maybe your hypothesis can be shown to have merit, but your sample size of evidence will need to be a lot bigger than at present.

[Ruth_NZ]

Also we are far apart on what hindsight is. Your definition of hindsight is me commenting mid contest? That’s not my understand of the word.
For my definition of hindsight, see your text quoted above as a near perfect example.

If my quoted comment is a perfect example and you did the same thing with the reversed (actual) outcome then you will understand why 'hindsight' was an appropriate term for me to use.

Your mistake is to consider your theory proven on the basis of half a GW. Your lack of class is in telling those that did different that they had 'blown' it and should have listened to you.

Anyway, science says it is almost in possible for someone to change their mind in public in front of others so I don’t expect anyone to suddenly agree with me, even when all evidence is on my side. Personal slights are the normal human response to new thinking.

That's BS as well. I do it all the time, when I learn better about something. But you have evidenced no 'new thinking' here and my response was caused by your derision, not your theory (which doesn't really interest me at all).

I will now leave the field to you.

[Resonare]

Gosh, the herd mentality of some members on here is just pathetic.

[phrampton534]

A FH in a DGW will give you whichever team you think is best for that week prior to the transfer deadline. But it will also give you the best team for a BGW too. You can plan in advance for either of these and still get the best team (with less time to react or the need to take hits if you don't do this enough in advance or get unlucky with injuries). I don't think either is bad use of a FH if the alternative was a team with significantly less than 11 players (BGW) or less players with 2 games (DGW).

I think the main reason for going FH32 this season was the fact that a lot of the same teams will be blanking in 31 and 33 so building a team for 31 meant you were also building for 33. If you built for 32 then you may struggle in 33. The disadvantage was you risked compromising your team in the short to mid-term as the teams you needed to get players for ready for 31 were (Liverpool & Chelsea aside) weaker teams with less obvious long term players...

Other big disadvantage of FH32 though is you can't use your TC or BB.

[MPTree]

If Wilson had scored twice yesterday rather than King; if Arnie had scored twice rather than Chicha; if Leicester hadn't gone down to 10 men after 4 minutes, despite which they still managed to score twice (and none of those alternative outcomes would have been any surprise at all); would you then have used hindsight to come on here saying that the FH managers had nailed the chip and that you had been wrong?

GW32 and GW35 are likely to contribute the most. So it makes sense to use the chips to boost the biggest game weeks. To capture the most points.

I am using my chips in GW32 and 35 - my TC and BB respectively, since I believe that's where those chips are the most optimally used. A blank GW therefore makes the most sense for my FH chip. It's all squad dependent, of course, and often a judgement thing too. It's a complex call with many variables, and the only 'wrong' approach is to claim that there is a 'wrong' approach in the first place.

[swadd1er]

Looks like 35 using FH

[eastcentral1]

30 with free hit.

[Billy Bongo]

40, no FH

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[Joccki_10]

21 -4. Bizarre.

[Zimmerman]

46 and kicking myself for not captaining Mane.

[carver]

21-8.

My team is iN complete disarray . In free fall. A shambles .

[Resonare]

42, no hits.

Pleased but was 50-50 between Arnie and King before the West Ham itk said Arnie was starting...

[Caf]

9 -4 so far. Salah (c), Robbo and three Chelsea to go.
Looks like being quite a flat week so I’ll live with the poor score.

20 -4, what a week eh?