View Latest: 1 Day | FISO Injury Search

Alonso.

A Fantasy Football forum for news on fantasy football games run by the Premierleague (FPL).
pokeface
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 382
Joined: 17 Dec 2016, 04:45

Alonso.

Post by pokeface » 15 Jan 2019, 17:28

Lots of people ditching him right now and looks like he’ll drop tonight.

For me he was initially a hold this week, as we could find out Chelsea have a DGW25 next week (I personally feel this is very unlikely). Now tempted to roll the dice that Chelsea either don’t get through or DGW25 doesn’t happen and go for a Liverpool double up.

Anyone got any opinions?

Ditch or hold?

skip
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 468
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:33
FS Record: UFPL beta winner 2014, OFL ISO winner 2013

Re: Alonso.

Post by skip » 15 Jan 2019, 18:10

I just got rid to fund Salah, but would have held if not.

User avatar
Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 5675
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13

Re: Alonso.

Post by Sutter Kane » 15 Jan 2019, 18:24

I ditched him to just afford Pogba day before yesterday. Now obviously I wish I'd waited (and possibly been priced out) as I could have funded Pogba with Kane downgrade. If you need the money then yes, otherwise, no. I think the chance of Chelsea getting through and also getting a double GW25 is not great odds.

pokeface
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 382
Joined: 17 Dec 2016, 04:45

Re: Alonso.

Post by pokeface » 15 Jan 2019, 21:02

I suppose if I did ditch it would be a sideways move to Van Dijk now, although would allow me to do Wilson > Rashford. But that would be involve spending 4 points as I’d have to move tonight otherwise I’ll be priced out. I’m just a bit concerned about the 7.0m region strikers as basically with Wilson/Arnie questionable, Zaha not hitting form it leaves the likes of Mitro/Jiminez and I think Rashford will easily outscore them short term.

But I agree that DGW25 is unlikely. Will decide tonight I guess.

User avatar
ajcairns
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 302
Joined: 05 Oct 2016, 14:40
FS Record: Still Decidedly Average.

Re: Alonso.

Post by ajcairns » 16 Jan 2019, 14:05

I downgraded him in GW20 (5, 8, 2 since) to Luiz (12, 6, 8) after initially thinking he would stay all season. That was part of a deal to fund a Hazard (3, 3, 5) upgrade from Mane (7, 2, 3). I still think he will outscore Luiz in the long run but for now I'm happy enough with the saved funds that can used better elsewhere for now.

I am also pretty skeptical about a DGW25.

DeadlySub
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 24
Joined: 20 Jul 2018, 20:42
FS Record: Beginner

Re: Alonso.

Post by DeadlySub » 16 Jan 2019, 14:49

I would like to move him on but right now my focus is on dealing with Son and TAA, and I don't think my squad is bad enough to justify a WC.

My plan is to leave him in and then sell him to get TAA back once he's fit.

User avatar
ajcairns
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 302
Joined: 05 Oct 2016, 14:40
FS Record: Still Decidedly Average.

Re: Alonso.

Post by ajcairns » 16 Jan 2019, 14:52

I dont think there's any suggestion that he's going to be dropped by Sarri so anyone keeping him shouldn't be too worried about a price drop if there's bigger issues elsewhere.

pokeface
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 382
Joined: 17 Dec 2016, 04:45

Re: Alonso.

Post by pokeface » 16 Jan 2019, 15:48

I ended up moving him out for VVD last night which allowed me to get Rashford in for a -4. I would have been priced out otherwise. Hopefully it pays off.

Wanted to hold him just in case of a Chelsea DGW25 but feel that’s unlikely, so thought the gamble was worth it.

I feel it was worth the hit for Rashford (today anyway) as the other options for a striker at that pricepoint are a bit questionable and I’m happy with a Liverpool double up.

I think Alonso certainly isn’t worth the premium he was at the start of the season, he has 1 goal this season and got 7 last year, if I was going for a Chelsea defender I’d rather Luiz or Rudiger now.

Caf
FISOhead
Posts: 561
Joined: 30 Mar 2016, 21:17
FS Record: Mostly 250k finishes!

Re: Alonso.

Post by Caf » 28 Jan 2019, 09:26

To dump Alonso or not to dump Alonso, that is the question.

I'd have been happy keeping him but it appears he may be out of the Chelsea XI, with Emerson playing the League Cup semi 2nd leg (and Alonso getting the FA Cup tie against Sheff Wed yesterday). I've seen lots of chat on Twitter about how this signals Emerson will get a run in the team now.
Is this for real or are we just reading too much into it and Alonso will be back in the XI before we know it?

All things considered I'd be happier rolling my transfer, but I don't think holding a non-playing Alonso is justifiable. A transfer to Laporte ahead of the DGW might be tempting.

Magic
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 471
Joined: 16 Jul 2017, 08:29
FS Record: Improving

Re: Alonso.

Post by Magic » 29 Jan 2019, 11:37

Caf wrote:
28 Jan 2019, 09:26
To dump Alonso or not to dump Alonso, that is the question.
To dump Alonso, that is the answer.

Magic
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 471
Joined: 16 Jul 2017, 08:29
FS Record: Improving

Re: Alonso.

Post by Magic » 29 Jan 2019, 11:38

pokeface wrote:
16 Jan 2019, 15:48
I ended up moving him out for VVD last night
Oh dear.

https://www.skysports.com/football/news ... gh-illness

User avatar
murf
FISO Baron
Posts: 89746
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:28
Location: Chasing an egg (see my WWW or FPL links)
FS Record: Once led TFF. Very briefly.
Contact:

Re: Alonso.

Post by murf » 29 Jan 2019, 11:50

Magic wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 11:38
pokeface wrote:
16 Jan 2019, 15:48
I ended up moving him out for VVD last night
Oh dear.

https://www.skysports.com/football/news ... gh-illness
...or you could be patient, ignore a historic story [although I believe that, further to last week's illness comments, he still hadn't trained as of yesterday] and wait for Klopp's press conference at 1:30

EDIT - Waiting to the Press Conference revealed that he actually did train yesterday and today so is not so poorly any more.
Last edited by murf on 29 Jan 2019, 17:19, edited 2 times in total.

pokeface
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 382
Joined: 17 Dec 2016, 04:45

Re: Alonso.

Post by pokeface » 29 Jan 2019, 14:02

I am still happy I made the move to VVD, he is expected to train today. My thought process for potentially holding onto Alonso was at the time there was a small chance of a Chelsea DGW25, now that looks very unlikely, I don’t think Alonso is worth the premium.

Maybe he’ll be one to watch with the Higuain arrival, but with only 1 goal so far this year when I last looked (he had 7 last year) he isn’t worth it imo.

Magic
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 471
Joined: 16 Jul 2017, 08:29
FS Record: Improving

Re: Alonso.

Post by Magic » 29 Jan 2019, 14:34

pokeface wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 14:02
I don’t think Alonso is worth the premium.
I concur.

User avatar
MoSe
Dumbledore
Posts: 9146
Joined: 10 Sep 2014, 12:25
Location: next door S.Siro stadium
FS Record: FISODAS CUP Winner Season 25
FISO H2H Winner: 15/16 Div2 - 16/17 Div1
FISO Mirror: 16/17 PL Winner

Re: Alonso.

Post by MoSe » 29 Jan 2019, 14:35

I dumped Alonso ...and he won Daytona 24h! :roll:

OIEIAO
FISOhead
Posts: 958
Joined: 27 Aug 2014, 22:13

Re: Alonso.

Post by OIEIAO » 30 Jan 2019, 14:01

I'm still keeping him despite the evidence that he isn't delivering. A similar thing happened last season where he had about 8 attacking blanks in a row, everyone shipped him out and then he got some double figure hauls.

I can't argue this is the right approach for others to take... I just love owning him when he is attacking - and he does seem to keep getting in the right positions, just hitting the post instead of scoring.

He'll score 2 in 2 soon (maybe). And if he doesn't I still have a nailed Chelsea defender.

On Emerson - Sarri dismissed the suggestion that Alonso would be tired before Christmas given that he'd missed all the Europa league games (and maybe the league cup too). Sarri did say something nice about Emerson the other day so it's possible this could change but they will still have regular games in both competitions and I cabn't see the Europa league being the focus for a while yet.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 2640
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09

Re: Alonso.

Post by Archy » 30 Jan 2019, 15:20

Easy to forget he's the 2nd highest scoring defender in the game and still has more points to his name this season than, say, Aguero

I'm holdfing for the games bou and HUD then will review again after that

User avatar
MoSe
Dumbledore
Posts: 9146
Joined: 10 Sep 2014, 12:25
Location: next door S.Siro stadium
FS Record: FISODAS CUP Winner Season 25
FISO H2H Winner: 15/16 Div2 - 16/17 Div1
FISO Mirror: 16/17 PL Winner

Re: Alonso.

Post by MoSe » 30 Jan 2019, 15:42

Archy wrote:
30 Jan 2019, 15:20
Easy to forget he's the 2nd highest scoring defender in the game and still has more points to his name this season than, say, Aguero

I'm holdfing for the games bou and HUD then will review again after that
first 4 GWs 1G 5A 2 CS 44p 11.0ppg
following 19 GWs 0G 2A 8CS 76p 4.0ppg

I know, sample size, cherry picking....

but it's also VERY EASY to say

19 GWs 4.0ppg = NORMALITY
4 GWs 11.0ppg = season start FLUKE (a doping stat for his being 2nd scoring def in FPL and more than Kun)

what should we expect from Alonso in the remaining 15 games?
I say 4.0ppg

maybe a few decimals more, but for sure not even the 5.22 ppg counting his season as a whole 120p/23g

PS: besides,
it's fallacious to compare Alonso total points with Kun Total points,
as Kun was out 4 gws (and even if the pattern repeats, you'll be able to dodge it hiring someone else when Kun would not be available)

a more honest comparison would be
Alonso 120p / 23games = 5.22ppg
Aguero 113p / 20games = 5.65ppg

OK you might say that there's still much more value in Alonso given the prices,
but plainly stating that Alonso has now more FPL pts than Kun, whilst factual, is also plainly misleading

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 2640
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09

Re: Alonso.

Post by Archy » 30 Jan 2019, 15:59

Mose come on fella, you can't pick a sample of good performing weeks and call it fluke and a sample of poorer performing weeks and call it normal. That's confirmation bias at its very best!

I could just as easily say:

If Alonso hadn't been unlucky and hit the post against Arsenal he'd have scored another (say) 7 points in that game, meaning he'd have averaged 6 points a game over the last 3 - ie back in form and better than expected from Aguero!

Also, its not falacious to compare to Aguero. he is more prone to injury & rotation and therefore not unreasonable to include his missing games. Or, if you want to exclude the missing weeks, at least deduct 8 points from his total to account for forced transfers in and out. Also, he's nearly double the price of Alonso so why not include that in your calculation also?

The overall point, which you seem to have missed, is that he is still a premium player - comparable to other 'top in class' players - and people tend to forget it too easily

User avatar
MoSe
Dumbledore
Posts: 9146
Joined: 10 Sep 2014, 12:25
Location: next door S.Siro stadium
FS Record: FISODAS CUP Winner Season 25
FISO H2H Winner: 15/16 Div2 - 16/17 Div1
FISO Mirror: 16/17 PL Winner

Re: Alonso.

Post by MoSe » 30 Jan 2019, 16:51

Archy wrote:
30 Jan 2019, 15:59
Mose come on fella, you can't pick a sample of good performing weeks and call it fluke and a sample of poorer performing weeks and call it normal. That's confirmation bias at its very best!
Archy come on fella, the BIAS IS YOURS!

I did not pick "a sample of poorer performing weeks and call it normal"
I picked HIS WHOLE SEASON, and purged it not of just "a sample of good performing weeks", but something that happened in a restricted span of time, at an extreme of the whole sample, which performances he proved he could not sustain and not even get near in the rest of his whole season

the good performances I picked were a solid interval spanning 17% of the whole season.
It was easy, obvious, natural, appropriate, correct, to isolate and weed it out, as somepthing which must be due to particular circumstances, of the paleyr, of the team, bmaybe of schedule, which could not be repeated, rather, which he constanlty and regularly failed to get even near for the remaining 83% of the sample

So, alonso started with 11.0ppg in 17& of his wjole season sample, and consistently cound not get better ythan 4.0pp in the almost whole 83% bulk of his season from then on
i't's OBSERVATION of a phenomenon evolving over time and recognising that the favorable circumstances happening in a very short and limited time bore no relation with the whole of the remaining phenomenon span

trying to dismiss that as "confirmation bias" is a openly and blatantly malicious trick
Com'on fella, you're better than that :P

I for sure prefere OIEIAO approach

He sure can't give use 11.0 ppg
but also 4.0ppg are too poor from him, we must alwaus HOPE that he reverts to 6.0 ot 7.0 ppg sometimes
---------------------
Archy wrote:
30 Jan 2019, 15:59
he is more prone to injury & rotation and therefore not unreasonable to include his missing games.
sorry, nothing personal, I always considered this concept as an idiocy, the idea I mean, of course you're entitled to any opinion you like to have
when a player is ot available, you have a sub coming in, and if prolonged you use transfers
---------------------
Archy wrote:
30 Jan 2019, 15:59
Or, if you want to exclude the missing weeks, at least deduct 8 points from his total to account for forced transfers in and out.
you can't say whether you'd have to take hits for it, even if the transfers are "forced"
It's OBVIOUS and mathematically sound to exclude missing week if you want to measure the return you can get from a player. Including missing weeks and transfer hits in measuing a player's yeld and potential is not unreasonable, is plainly mad.
--------------------
Archy wrote:
30 Jan 2019, 15:59
Also, he's nearly double the price of Alonso so why not include that in your calculation also?
maybe mu post was too long and you overlooked that: "OK you might say that there's still much more value in Alonso given the prices"
I don't include that in the ponts calculation, because I use simple and clear and honest indicators, I don't want to muddle and make it obscure mixing apples and pears and oranges in a single indicator.
Aguero this season yielded 5.65ppg when he played. When he didn't play you had subs, and you had transfers, avoiding hits if you were skilled enough.
Then, they have differnt prices, and those can influence your considerations about their value in your team
YOU did NOT state: "Alonso has better value than Aguero this season"
you said yourself: Alonso has more POINTS than Aguero this season"
Now that I objected that your factual consideration was actaully misleading when better analyzing the context (missing games), you object why didn't I include price.
Well, why didn't YOU include price in the first, and only invoke it THEN to rebutt my objection? :roll: how VERY VERY convenient, you're so brilliant :roll:
_______________________________________
Archy wrote:
30 Jan 2019, 15:59
The overall point, which you seem to have missed, is that he is still a premium player - comparable to other 'top in class' players - and people tend to forget it too easily

Well, I had him from GW4, thus I missed his first 3 GWs hauls, and kept him for 20 GWs, always hoping he could revert to his premium value and performances.
Whihc he constantly and regualrly failed to do. Not for just a fluke sample of conveniently picked games. For a SOLID, consecutive string of games spanning pratically his WHOLE season, he FAILED to keep up his premium defender expectations.
I gave up waiting, maybe (or surely) I'll be wrong, and I wish OIEIAO he's right and gets rewarded with 6 or 7 ppg
I didn't "forget" he's SUPPOSED to be a premium defender. After 20week of stubbornly keeping him, I had in the end to realise that SO FAR he FAILED to DELIVER almost his whole season long, and picked him to be sacrificed to finally bring in Salah

I respect anyway your idea about alonso, you might be "more right" in your faith and consideration in him than I was in my decision to sacrifice him.
You just ticked me in bringing forth superficial amd misleading arguments to sustain oyur point, which could have been argumented much better

PS: his missing the post was the nail on his coffin: not only he is underperforming, leave alone to his season start, but to his premium defender expectations. He's also unlucky! :innocent:

User avatar
Stemania
FISO Knight
Posts: 19465
Joined: 27 Aug 2006, 11:54
Location: On the Iron Throne of xG, the seat of The Crown Prince of the Stat Perverts. Or if not, in the STC!
FS Record: Best: TFF 321st. FPL 129th. FFS Career HoF 4th.

Re: Alonso.

Post by Stemania » 30 Jan 2019, 17:20

I've long been planning to sell Alonso after GW25 (and may have sold earlier were it not for the DGW25 prospect) - for one thing they have (mci, blank, TOT) immediately after GW25!

I've been quite happy with his goal threat this year so far tbh - obviously it was never going to be quite the same as years past due to him playing a different position, but, of course, he went down 0.5m in starting price this year to compensate. I have thought that in the games that Hazard played in the false 9 role recently it's seemed harder for Alonso to get into the usual positions (because Hazard roams so much when on the left, leaving space) - so now Higuain is there the prospects might be better in the short term. Especially as it gives a target man for Alonso to hit with his crosses.

Worth noting that Alonso has hit the woodwork more than any other player in the PL this season (6 times!!!) - an amazing achievement for a defender - so his recent run can be seen as somewhat unfortunate from an attacking perspective. Imo, his main problem recently has been Chelsea's general drop-off in performances and their lack of ability to find the net - you can't expect attacking returns from a defender if their team is only mustering a goal a game! :(

Coff
Cheetah
Posts: 6
Joined: 29 Jul 2017, 13:28

Re: Alonso.

Post by Coff » 30 Jan 2019, 19:01

He’s been benched for today’s game

OIEIAO
FISOhead
Posts: 958
Joined: 27 Aug 2014, 22:13

Re: Alonso.

Post by OIEIAO » 30 Jan 2019, 19:10

Coff wrote:
30 Jan 2019, 19:01
He’s been benched for today’s game
Thought I'd get here first to follow up my earlier post with that news... Turns out you were even keener. Damn this bad news.

User avatar
blahblah
FISO Baron
Posts: 68359
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:46
Location: .. he thinks that he knows something which he doesn't, whereas I am quite concious of my ignorance.
Contact:

Re: Alonso.

Post by blahblah » 30 Jan 2019, 19:19

Hopefully he stays on the bench :?

Caf
FISOhead
Posts: 561
Joined: 30 Mar 2016, 21:17
FS Record: Mostly 250k finishes!

Re: Alonso.

Post by Caf » 30 Jan 2019, 23:10

So, after a 4-0 loss without him, does he come straight back into the Chelsea XI? :?

User avatar
blahblah
FISO Baron
Posts: 68359
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:46
Location: .. he thinks that he knows something which he doesn't, whereas I am quite concious of my ignorance.
Contact:

Re: Alonso.

Post by blahblah » 30 Jan 2019, 23:23

I doubt that I care tbh as (hopefully) ill dump him very soon.

Teams seem to have sussed that midfield 3 of Sarri's. Kante's miss was a shocker, but he shouldn't have been there....

pokeface
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 382
Joined: 17 Dec 2016, 04:45

Re: Alonso.

Post by pokeface » 30 Jan 2019, 23:28

Chelsea’s worst defeat since 1996 or something? You would imagine there will potentially be some kind of system shake up perhaps and maybe they start switching him to the role that gave him more success? Same with Kante.

I saw Chelsea at the Emirates the other night and they looked okay, but no goal threat, and Alonso had the best chance I believe (hit the post 😂).

As this Liverpool defensive double up is looking like a questionable move right now, I wouldn’t be opposed to looking at him again after GW27 if they turn things round.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 2640
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09

Re: Alonso.

Post by Archy » 31 Jan 2019, 10:40

Mose, you may need to re-think your approach to stats if you're waiting until GW 24 to bring Salah in to your team :wink:

The reality is, even if taking a skewed sample that excludes the first 3 or 4 games of the season (for both players), the two's scoring rates are broadly comparable. Aguero is just 1.0 PPG ahead vs Alonso's "leaner spell" stats, but add in the fact that Alonso is £5m cheaper and its clear where the better VFM sits.

Anyway, I'm just pleased Alonso didn't play last night, it meant I got Doherty off my bench :D I will be considering ditching him after the HUD game.
Last edited by Archy on 31 Jan 2019, 14:16, edited 2 times in total.

OIEIAO
FISOhead
Posts: 958
Joined: 27 Aug 2014, 22:13

Re: Alonso.

Post by OIEIAO » 31 Jan 2019, 14:14

pokeface wrote:
30 Jan 2019, 23:28
Chelsea’s worst defeat since 1996 or something? You would imagine there will potentially be some kind of system shake up perhaps and maybe they start switching him to the role that gave him more success? Same with Kante.
I wouldn't rule anything out for definite after getting my fingers burned yesterday (above!) but the pundits seem to feel that Sarri and Sarriball 4-3-3 are conjoined twins - I think they'd sooner change manager than change formation.
I'd say it would be logical to play the formation (3-4-3) that got success out of several of your best players but I'm just a fan...

User avatar
MoSe
Dumbledore
Posts: 9146
Joined: 10 Sep 2014, 12:25
Location: next door S.Siro stadium
FS Record: FISODAS CUP Winner Season 25
FISO H2H Winner: 15/16 Div2 - 16/17 Div1
FISO Mirror: 16/17 PL Winner

Re: Alonso.

Post by MoSe » 28 Feb 2019, 09:07

Archy wrote:
31 Jan 2019, 10:40
Mose, you may need to re-think your approach to stats if you're waiting until GW 24 to bring Salah in to your team :wink:
I didn't feel like explaining my approach this season, not worht it, although I might have easily filled a couple pages. ;)
In short, I'm dedicating no more than 5min per GW to my own team this season, and it shows, almost no use of stats whatsoever, just looking at players FPL points

I can say now tho, that bringing in Salah in GW24, just because I saw in his page he had scored 21 2 12 12 12 2 11 15 in GW16-23,
has proven to be the worst use of budget mistake of my whole season, and I had already made very bad mistakes in December already.
I'd have been hugely better off continuing to play in last 5 GWs whichever team without Salah

View Latest: 1 Day View Your posts
Post Reply

Return to “Fantasy PremierLeague.com (FPL)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Finisher1, GrapeshotCrawler, phrampton534, RomynPG and 18 guests