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Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by fantasyfaz » 10 Mar 2019, 20:18

The Real Slim Shady wrote:
09 Mar 2019, 04:38
Ive gone ahead and created a 31-38 league if anyones interested to join;

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=129955

9138-1367903
Joined, Think im FH 32 WC34 BB 35 & TC not sure but might WC 32 FH 33 BB 35. Can’t decide still.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by bigcliff2 » 10 Mar 2019, 21:36

I'm thinking:

FH32
WC34
BB35
TC Salah home to Huddersfield in 36

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Tony Towners Tache » 11 Mar 2019, 09:12

Joined the league thanks. Will be interesting to see how the various strategies work out. Perhaps learn something for next season.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Finisher1 » 11 Mar 2019, 09:24

bigcliff2 wrote:
10 Mar 2019, 21:36
I'm thinking:

FH32
WC34
BB35
TC Salah home to Huddersfield in 36
I will also go for FH32 and WC34. I could perhaps TC Salah in GW36 if only I would have him, but the thing is he is an awful pick in GW34-35, so it would probably require two transfers to bring him in. I might look elsewhere.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Resonare » 11 Mar 2019, 09:45

Tony Towners Tache wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 09:12
Joined the league thanks. Will be interesting to see how the various strategies work out. Perhaps learn something for next season.
It's kinda obvious, no?

Or maybe it's because I used the FH during a DGW last season that I know how this will end :lol:

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 11 Mar 2019, 10:08

Resonare wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 09:45
Tony Towners Tache wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 09:12
Joined the league thanks. Will be interesting to see how the various strategies work out. Perhaps learn something for next season.
It's kinda obvious, no?

Or maybe it's because I used the FH during a DGW last season that I know how this will end :lol:
So did I and one of my learning points was to avoid using it in a DGW again
Cast forward a year and I am using my free hit chip in a double game week
One difference this year is that the layout of fixtures between 31&33 does offer potential rewards for two quite different squads (I know, navigating this with one team is also possible I’m not suggesting that it isn’t).
My other learning point was to go into this period with all chips intact was one too many, which was part of my thinking in TC-ing Aguero that gameweek.
Anyway, testing that hypothesis is part of the rationale for joining the league. Let’s see what happens...

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Resonare » 11 Mar 2019, 11:47

Smurphy's Paw wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 10:08
So did I and one of my learning points was to avoid using it in a DGW again
Cast forward a year and I am using my free hit chip in a double game week
One difference this year is that the layout of fixtures between 31&33 does offer potential rewards for two quite different squads (I know, navigating this with one team is also possible I’m not suggesting that it isn’t).
My other learning point was to go into this period with all chips intact was one too many, which was part of my thinking in TC-ing Aguero that gameweek.
Anyway, testing that hypothesis is part of the rationale for joining the league. Let’s see what happens...
Well, it was a big success for me as i managed to get over the century mark and outscored most BB teams that week :?

I'd be genuinely surprised if FH31 managers did better on avarege vs FH32 ones.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by David Luiz Is A Hero » 11 Mar 2019, 12:16

Resonare wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 11:47


I'd be genuinely surprised if FH31 managers did better on avarege vs FH32 ones.
I think it is likely that FH 32 will do better between now and the end of the season however my decision to FH31 was based on not wanting to rip my team apart over the last few weeks to get GW 31 players in. Would have meant sacrificing players I wanted in those weeks (like Sterling's hatty) to get players I didn't and there is definitely a points differential there.`

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by johnjoe107 » 11 Mar 2019, 13:21

bigcliff2 wrote:I'm thinking:

FH32
WC34
BB35
TC Salah home to Huddersfield in 36
I don't see your logic using your TC in GW36. Surely you would be better off using it in one of the DGW's.


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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Finisher1 » 11 Mar 2019, 13:41

johnjoe107 wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 13:21
bigcliff2 wrote:I'm thinking:

FH32
WC34
BB35
TC Salah home to Huddersfield in 36
I don't see your logic using your TC in GW36. Surely you would be better off using it in one of the DGW's.
The thing is you are better off using any chip in one of the DGWs. But we only have two or three DGWs remaining.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Sutter Kane » 11 Mar 2019, 13:47

David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 12:16
I think it is likely that FH 32 will do better between now and the end of the season however my decision to FH31 was based on not wanting to rip my team apart over the last few weeks to get GW 31 players in. Would have meant sacrificing players I wanted in those weeks (like Sterling's hatty) to get players I didn't and there is definitely a points differential there.`
I wouldn't rip my team apart either (we're talking mostly Manchester players here I guess) - but I'd still want to FH32 by saving a double switch for GW31 and braving it with 6-7 men and a good captain. I just can't envisage any deficit being anywhere near as big as the potential one in GW32 (+GW33), even with a TC in GW32. The potential to be destroyed by some monster scores in GW32 is far greater than in GW31.

So if I was an FPL player with say, Sterling, Aguero and Pogba then I'd certainly have kept for GW28-30 and the points that would have brought, and maybe taken a hit after GW30 to put out the best players from GW31. Ripping one's team apart is unnecessary in a FH32 plan because there are many good players with good fixtures in the lead up to GW31 who play in GW31 and 33. Anyway that's my take on it and has been for over 5 weeks now. I would backtrack a little and say it's fairly likely I'd have got Sterling and/or Aguero during that time if FH31 was my plan. Impossible to judge it all really because the 'right' chip calls for each person's squad can easily bring the wrong results.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 11 Mar 2019, 14:20

Resonare wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 11:47
Smurphy's Paw wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 10:08
So did I and one of my learning points was to avoid using it in a DGW again
Cast forward a year and I am using my free hit chip in a double game week
One difference this year is that the layout of fixtures between 31&33 does offer potential rewards for two quite different squads (I know, navigating this with one team is also possible I’m not suggesting that it isn’t).
My other learning point was to go into this period with all chips intact was one too many, which was part of my thinking in TC-ing Aguero that gameweek.
Anyway, testing that hypothesis is part of the rationale for joining the league. Let’s see what happens...
Well, it was a big success for me as i managed to get over the century mark and outscored most BB teams that week :?

I'd be genuinely surprised if FH31 managers did better on avarege vs FH32 ones.
It was a success for me as well, I scored over 80 and left a bunch of points on the bench, a fault of mine not the Chip.
My reflection was that I might have been even more successful with a slightly different approach. I like Finisher’s comment that you are better off using any chip in a DGW.
The FH chip allows you to come up with a good 11, meaning 22 scoring opportunities. But BB&TCers could all end up with more scoring opportunities.

As ever, the caveat to all of this is that Chip scores should never be taken in isolation. Always understand the impact and mitigate against points lost preparing for and/or getting out of using a Chip. In that respect I’d say that my Chip usage last year was a real success. I slashed my ranking over the arc of the final five game weeks by not using any of them in isolation (apart from, arguably, the TC that I had left and underused)

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by David Luiz Is A Hero » 11 Mar 2019, 14:29

Sutter Kane wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 13:47

I wouldn't rip my team apart either (we're talking mostly Manchester players here I guess) - but I'd still want to FH32 by saving a double switch for GW31 and braving it with 6-7 men and a good captain. I just can't envisage any deficit being anywhere near as big as the potential one in GW32 (+GW33), even with a TC in GW32. The potential to be destroyed by some monster scores in GW32 is far greater than in GW31.

So if I was an FPL player with say, Sterling, Aguero and Pogba then I'd certainly have kept for GW28-30 and the points that would have brought, and maybe taken a hit after GW30 to put out the best players from GW31. Ripping one's team apart is unnecessary in a FH32 plan because there are many good players with good fixtures in the lead up to GW31 who play in GW31 and 33. Anyway that's my take on it and has been for over 5 weeks now. I would backtrack a little and say it's fairly likely I'd have got Sterling and/or Aguero during that time if FH31 was my plan. Impossible to judge it all really because the 'right' chip calls for each person's squad can easily bring the wrong results.
Agree with the sentiment in the last sentence. This game is all about risk management imo and it can all blow up in your face despite making the correct call.
I would say my squad is in pretty good shape for next week though

3x Wolves, 3x Chelsea, 3x City & 2x United plus AWB, Perreira and an Aguero TC to play in 32, can't see many other players I would want even on a FH that week.
GW 33 is an issue but I should have at least 5 players + 2FT. Add a couple of well placed hits I'd hope not to lose too much before a 34 WC.

When the blank/DGW schedule started to become clear 5/6 weeks ago I had 4 players playing in GW33 which I imagine is less than most which definitely swayed my decision.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Resonare » 11 Mar 2019, 14:47

David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 12:16
I think it is likely that FH 32 will do better between now and the end of the season however my decision to FH31 was based on not wanting to rip my team apart over the last few weeks to get GW 31 players in. Would have meant sacrificing players I wanted in those weeks (like Sterling's hatty) to get players I didn't and there is definitely a points differential there.`
Is there? Plenty of FH32 managers had Aguero and/or Sterling in GW30 leftover from DGW25.

In fact, I'd argue the points differential goes the opposite way since not many FH31 teams will have had Vardy, Fraser, Rondon and Mane.

It's difficult to see how FH31 will gain much of an edge on FH32 managers who are fielding full XIs this week when we already have most of the key players you'll be FH'ing for anyway. But come DGW32, how many FH31 managers will have Lukaku, Kane, Alli, triple City and the key players from teams with doubles yet to be announced? Not many. You're pretty much building your DGW32 team in the dark.

And this isn't to say that FH31 isn't the most optimal strategy right now for some teams, but there are certainly managers who deliberately built their teams away from FH32 specifically because they wanted to use the TC in a DGW. I think that's a decision that may cost a lot of people because of the high variance the TC chip has. I'm sure some will get 60 pt hauls...but many will have a disaster like Sane TC'ers in DGW25. That's my real points here - players who are using the FH chip sub-optimally and planning in the dark for DGW32 just so they might get lucky with a luck chip may as well go play the lottery.
Smurphy's Paw wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 14:20
It was a success for me as well, I scored over 80 and left a bunch of points on the bench, a fault of mine not the Chip.
My reflection was that I might have been even more successful with a slightly different approach. I like Finisher’s comment that you are better off using any chip in a DGW.
The FH chip allows you to come up with a good 11, meaning 22 scoring opportunities. But BB&TCers could all end up with more scoring opportunities.
Yeah I agree, but the FH allows you to come up with an optimal 22 scoring opportunities which I reckon is critical. Bad players and good players both see scoring opportunities, it's the latter that sees the optimal ones.

I personally like FH a lot for this reason because it helps skill influence the game.
Smurphy's Paw wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 14:20
As ever, the caveat to all of this is that Chip scores should never be taken in isolation. Always understand the impact and mitigate against points lost preparing for and/or getting out of using a Chip. In that respect I’d say that my Chip usage last year was a real success. I slashed my ranking over the arc of the final five game weeks by not using any of them in isolation (apart from, arguably, the TC that I had left and underused)
I agree.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by David Luiz Is A Hero » 11 Mar 2019, 15:32

Yeah the TC didn't factor in, I still have it and will use it in 32 but I would have happily chucked it on Salah vs Huddersfield.

Why would I want Spurs players in the double, awful form and one of the games is Liverpool away? Could bite me but that is a gamble, especially given the players you would have to leave out to fit them in?

I'll have triple City, 2x Utd and Triple Chelsea which are the plum double gameweeks. Wolves obviously isn't a great one but they have a good record against the big sides so bur/MUN is still desirable.

Fpr the points differential going the other way, you may be correct but I guarantee no one expected it to 6 weeks ago when we were all making this decision. I've had Sterling, Ederson, JWP, Jiminez who had I been looking to FH32 I would have had to sacrifice some of them at some point.

All this makes little difference as I shot myself in the foot by missing the deadline for week 28, losing a FT and still having my Chelsea and City players on the bench

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Vsz » 11 Mar 2019, 15:43

FH31 activated and liking the look of my team for 31 (obviously!) and 32 (TC Utd/City/Chels TBC)...33 looking a bit sketch and will need to be patched up with some hits. I reckon worth a hit for each blank slot, as they should all get 2 at least you would think... Anyway, will cross that bridge when I get to it.

Are people going to bench Liverpool players for 32?...

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by johnjoe107 » 11 Mar 2019, 15:54

Finisher1 wrote:
johnjoe107 wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 13:21
bigcliff2 wrote:I'm thinking:

FH32
WC34
BB35
TC Salah home to Huddersfield in 36
I don't see your logic using your TC in GW36. Surely you would be better off using it in one of the DGW's.
The thing is you are better off using any chip in one of the DGWs. But we only have two or three DGWs remaining.
I see where you're coming from and would consider this strategy if it wasn't for the fact that City should have Fulham & Cardiff in their DGW32 and think Aguero is going to score big points.


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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Resonare » 11 Mar 2019, 16:10

David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 15:32
Yeah the TC didn't factor in, I still have it and will use it in 32 but I would have happily chucked it on Salah vs Huddersfield.

Why would I want Spurs players in the double, awful form and one of the games is Liverpool away? Could bite me but that is a gamble, especially given the players you would have to leave out to fit them in?
Good point, but we already know Tottenham are a different beast when they have Kane, Eriksen, Alli and Son all fit like they do now.

Though as a Red, I'm hoping you stay right :P
David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 15:32
I'll have triple City, 2x Utd and Triple Chelsea which are the plum double gameweeks. Wolves obviously isn't a great one but they have a good record against the big sides so bur/MUN is still desirable.
Chelsea haven't exactly been in great form either, but even then how many of those players are actually optimal? International break injuries are surely a worry too?

Either way, it doesn't change that your team for DGW32 is certainly less optimal than it would be on a FH32, excluding price changes pricing you out and stuff like that.
David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 15:32
Fpr the points differential going the other way, you may be correct but I guarantee no one expected it to 6 weeks ago when we were all making this decision. I've had Sterling, Ederson, JWP, Jiminez who had I been looking to FH32 I would have had to sacrifice some of them at some point.

All this makes little difference as I shot myself in the foot by missing the deadline for week 28, losing a FT and still having my Chelsea and City players on the bench
You have Boruc as your 2nd keeper so you wouldn't have had to sell Ederson. Most FH32 players are selling City players now so you wouldn't have missed anything from Sterling.

Jimenez and JWP are both cheap enough to keep on the bench.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Finisher1 » 11 Mar 2019, 16:23

johnjoe107 wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 15:54
Finisher1 wrote:
johnjoe107 wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 13:21
bigcliff2 wrote:I'm thinking:

FH32
WC34
BB35
TC Salah home to Huddersfield in 36
I don't see your logic using your TC in GW36. Surely you would be better off using it in one of the DGW's.
The thing is you are better off using any chip in one of the DGWs. But we only have two or three DGWs remaining.
I see where you're coming from and would consider this strategy if it wasn't for the fact that City should have Fulham & Cardiff in their DGW32 and think Aguero is going to score big points.
Yeah, it's probably the best TC option available but I just think TC is the weakest chip so it's not my top priority.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by bigcliff2 » 11 Mar 2019, 17:15

johnjoe107 wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 13:21
bigcliff2 wrote:I'm thinking:

FH32
WC34
BB35
TC Salah home to Huddersfield in 36
I don't see your logic using your TC in GW36. Surely you would be better off using it in one of the DGW's.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well I can't use it in 32 as I'm using FH. Is there another two doubles aside from that? Huddersfield are the worst team in the league and Liverpool will probably still be right in a title race, it's about as good as you can get for a TC in a single GW. Plus, there's always hassle with players getting rotated in DGWs anyway. I might yet use the TC in 35 and the BB on a single GW but, as of now, this is looks like the best option for me

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by MoSe » 12 Mar 2019, 09:38

The Real Slim Shady wrote:
09 Mar 2019, 04:38
Ive gone ahead and created a 31-38 league if anyones interested to join;

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=129955

9138-1367903
the link above the join code, it's a dedicated topic which TRSS created:


if you joined from here, please ALSO check there:
MoSe wrote:
12 Mar 2019, 09:29
MoSe wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 10:53
useful tool (© Mav3rick) listing the Pending Entrants even before the league starts, with functioning team links
https://ratemyteam.uk/Fiso/SideGameData/1367903/30
you'll only have to change the GW number at the end to get GW summary for each team, including chips played (AC=ActiveChip, on the right)
MoSe wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 15:46
...
of the 60 entrants so far,
12 (that's 1 in 5) team owners are not known to me
...
we have of course to respect everyone's privacy,
but I always wonder what's the point in entering such experiment,
thus providing your own data for the stats and also running to win it,
if you don't disclose with Fiso Username which is your team...
RomynPG wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 17:59
I'm with MoSe ... shouldn't be unknowns in this imo.
Obv up to TRSS but I sense he created this for some late season banter so a "hello" in this thread isn't much to ask.
Don't be shy - Guts Over Fear :mrgreen:
Smurphy's Paw wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 18:18
+1
If you’re new please say hello anyway. Let us know who you are
...
UPDATED UKNOWN PENDING ENTRANTS (13/63)

Code: Select all

TeamId	Team Name		Manager Name				Manager Region
337437	Just flying my Keita	George Hammond				England
526506	G.L.O.W.		Nicholas Tims				England
1139824	Hodgy's hotshots	Paul Hodgson				England
226367	Ghost of John White	Stian Ravndal				Norway
557716	Tuttifrutti		Jørgen Sebastian Ebbel Frederiksen	Norway
2310017	Ain't No Sunshine	Matt Beedle- NonStop			Czech Republic
966484	-zxcvbnm		eet eet					Singapore
735020	Wonky Wheelbarrow	Alex Shepherd				England
2734	Super Notts		Tom Parker				England
272329	Biblical Beasts		Olly Harvey				England
273969	Eldorado Fenômeno	Rotem El-dor				Israel
1277583	Surreal Madrid		Adam Massey				England
38624	TJOCKEN BK		Hugo Lindberg				Sweden
which we plea to step forward and say hello

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by yttod1010 » 12 Mar 2019, 11:01

what happens if swansea beat man city

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Finisher1 » 12 Mar 2019, 11:42

yttod1010 wrote:
12 Mar 2019, 11:01
what happens if swansea beat man city
We all go back to the drawing board.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Resonare » 12 Mar 2019, 12:04

yttod1010 wrote:
12 Mar 2019, 11:01
what happens if swansea beat man city
City won't have a double in DGW32 and will play in BGW33.

Considering City play Fulham in DGW32 and Cardiff in BGW33 it wouldn't be diabolical for either FH strategies as FH31 players will have City players as differentials vs FH32 players while the latter will have more doublers.

But that's quite unlikely.

For me, the real scare for FH31 (and best case scenario for FH32 :P ) is for Brighton to get knocked out and City to progress. That will eliminate Chelsea's DGW32 as Brighton will play Southampton and Tottenham that week, leaving many FH31 players with 2-3 Chelsea players who play just the one away game against Everton while ensuring that their City assets still blank in BGW33 :wink:
Last edited by Resonare on 12 Mar 2019, 13:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Joccki_10 » 12 Mar 2019, 12:30

Resonare wrote:For me, the real scare for FH31 (and best case scenario for FH32 :P ) is for Brighton to get knocked out and City to go progress. That will eliminate Chelsea's DGW32 as Brighton will play Southampton and Tottenham that week, leaving many FH31 players with 2-3 Chelsea players who play just the one away game against Everton while ensuring that their City assets still blank in BGW33 :wink:
I don’t think Brighton getting knocked out against Millwall does directly lead to Chelsea not having a DGW32, but please correct me if I’m wrong.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Resonare » 12 Mar 2019, 12:51

Joccki_10 wrote:
12 Mar 2019, 12:30
I don’t think Brighton getting knocked out against Millwall does directly lead to Chelsea not having a DGW32, but please correct me if I’m wrong.
Tottenham's statement about playing Brighton in DGW32 should they get knocked out implies Chelsea won't have a DGW vs Brighton in that scenario.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Ruth_NZ » 12 Mar 2019, 13:07

Resonare wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote: I don’t think Brighton getting knocked out against Millwall does directly lead to Chelsea not having a DGW32, but please correct me if I’m wrong.
Tottenham's statement about playing Brighton in DGW32 should they get knocked out implies Chelsea won't have a DGW vs Brighton in that scenario.
It doesn't. Spurs have neither said or implied that they will play Brighton in GW32, in fact the opposite is the case. If Brighton get knocked out, Spurs will play them on 6th/7th April. That's GW33 (as originally scheduled). Brighton would still have a free slot in GW32.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Resonare » 12 Mar 2019, 13:14

Ruth_NZ wrote:
12 Mar 2019, 13:07
It doesn't. Spurs have neither said or implied that they will play Brighton in GW32, in fact the opposite is the case. If Brighton get knocked out, Spurs will play them on 6th/7th April. That's GW33 (as originally scheduled). Brighton would still have a free slot in GW32.
Just read it again and that does appear to be the case. I must've misread the dates first time around.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Ruth_NZ » 12 Mar 2019, 15:25

Yeah. Chelsea having car BHA in GW32 is a racing certainty.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Vsz » 12 Mar 2019, 15:27

Ruth_NZ wrote:
12 Mar 2019, 15:25
Yeah. Chelsea having car BHA in GW32 is a racing certainty.
Such nice DGW's for Chels, City and United.

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