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Turd Ferguson
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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Turd Ferguson » 07 Feb 2019, 15:26

raoul wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 13:23

Many have noted Leicester have a great run of fixtures from GW27 that goes straight through GW31 and GW33. And there is Liverpool. And Bournemuth from GW30 look decent. Whether you would want 3 from each of those I don't know, but that could be 9 starters for GW31 and many would be far from unattractive holds for the period up to then. Add in a couple of West Ham (who might need to go before GW33), and job done.
Yes, I'm actually quite optimistic about having a nice GW31 team without burning a chip. Liverpool triple up is an obvious choice, plus Leicester, West Ham, and Bournemouth.

Something like this:
Fabianksi
Robertson, TAA, Maguire
Salah, Fraser
Vardy, Arnautovic, Wilson

If Palace or Wolves go out in the next round of the cup, that would free up Spurs/Palace or Arsenal/Wolves in GW31, which should make fielding a strong 11 fairly easy. You'll likely need a hit or two to get there, but the players will be high quality.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Finisher1 » 07 Feb 2019, 17:00

Turd Ferguson wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 15:26
raoul wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 13:23

Many have noted Leicester have a great run of fixtures from GW27 that goes straight through GW31 and GW33. And there is Liverpool. And Bournemuth from GW30 look decent. Whether you would want 3 from each of those I don't know, but that could be 9 starters for GW31 and many would be far from unattractive holds for the period up to then. Add in a couple of West Ham (who might need to go before GW33), and job done.
Yes, I'm actually quite optimistic about having a nice GW31 team without burning a chip. Liverpool triple up is an obvious choice, plus Leicester, West Ham, and Bournemouth.

Something like this:
Fabianksi
Robertson, TAA, Maguire
Salah, Fraser
Vardy, Arnautovic, Wilson

If Palace or Wolves go out in the next round of the cup, that would free up Spurs/Palace or Arsenal/Wolves in GW31, which should make fielding a strong 11 fairly easy. You'll likely need a hit or two to get there, but the players will be high quality.
Here are fixtures until GW31 for both West Ham and Bournemouth

West Ham: GW26 cry, GW27 FUL, GW28 mci, GW29 NEW, GW30 car
Bournemouth: GW26 liv, GW27 WOL, GW28 ars, GW29 MCI, GW30 hud

Those are not ideal fixtures at all. Yes, you could argue that Cardiff away or Huddersfield away for example are nice fixtures, but the thing is they are 50-50 matches and ideally you'd want to have premium players from big teams playing against small teams.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 07 Feb 2019, 17:06

No need to bring in Bournemouth players till GW30. The team proposed is the end game in GW31. Leicester players first.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Finisher1 » 07 Feb 2019, 17:17

raoul wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 17:06
No need to bring in Bournemouth players till GW30. The team proposed is the end game in GW31. Leicester players first.
You can only bring in a maximum of two players directly for GW31 without hits. So those two transfers are already earmarked for Bournemouth? Fair enough. Then you have only four other transfers until GW31. Three of them for Leicester? That leaves you one transfer. Do you use this one transfer for West Ham? In the meantime FH31 managers are using their transfers for swapping premium players to bring in big guns for juicy home fixtures etc.

I mean it's totally doable but you are basically going to have an inferior team for GW26-30, more or less. But then again there is not a perfect way to use chips available to any of us, we all have to make some trade-offs at some point :)

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Pulpy » 07 Feb 2019, 17:36

If you aim to free hit 31and build now towards 32 you will no doubt have a better team in the run up to 31. How do you manage 33 though? Still undecided which way to go myself.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Finisher1 » 07 Feb 2019, 17:43

Pulpy wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 17:36
If you aim to free hit 31and build now towards 32 you will no doubt have a better team in the run up to 31. How do you manage 33 though? Still undecided which way to go myself.
I guess there is a decent chance that with WC32 you can cover GW33 as well. Or even with your regular GW32 team, if you want to save your wildcard for GW34-35. The thing is GW33 will probably be a smaller blank week and it might well include more big teams, which is actually a reason why GW31 team built from GW26-30 might not be very effective for GW33 either!

But it's very tricky and there is not an obvious answer. So much depends on Cup results and draw until GW27!

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Turd Ferguson » 07 Feb 2019, 17:59

Finisher1 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 17:00
Turd Ferguson wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 15:26
raoul wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 13:23

Many have noted Leicester have a great run of fixtures from GW27 that goes straight through GW31 and GW33. And there is Liverpool. And Bournemuth from GW30 look decent. Whether you would want 3 from each of those I don't know, but that could be 9 starters for GW31 and many would be far from unattractive holds for the period up to then. Add in a couple of West Ham (who might need to go before GW33), and job done.
Yes, I'm actually quite optimistic about having a nice GW31 team without burning a chip. Liverpool triple up is an obvious choice, plus Leicester, West Ham, and Bournemouth.

Something like this:
Fabianksi
Robertson, TAA, Maguire
Salah, Fraser
Vardy, Arnautovic, Wilson

If Palace or Wolves go out in the next round of the cup, that would free up Spurs/Palace or Arsenal/Wolves in GW31, which should make fielding a strong 11 fairly easy. You'll likely need a hit or two to get there, but the players will be high quality.
Here are fixtures until GW31 for both West Ham and Bournemouth

West Ham: GW26 cry, GW27 FUL, GW28 mci, GW29 NEW, GW30 car
Bournemouth: GW26 liv, GW27 WOL, GW28 ars, GW29 MCI, GW30 hud

Those are not ideal fixtures at all. Yes, you could argue that Cardiff away or Huddersfield away for example are nice fixtures, but the thing is they are 50-50 matches and ideally you'd want to have premium players from big teams playing against small teams.
That's a very good fixture run for West Ham. Maybe you bench them for 28 against city. The other four games are all against relegation contenders, plus 31 is at home to Huddersfield, the single best fixture of the season.

Bournemouth, yes, you don't want to bring them in before GW30.

Obviously this isn't the team I want in GW28. This is a tentative target to move towards. You'll have to roll a transfer and/or take a hit or two to get to an ideal GW31 team, but it allows you to save your chips. Laporte > Maguire/Pereira in GW27 for example, is a move that works both in the short term and for GW31, and it's very likely a move that I'll make. If Palace or Wolves go out of the cup, I'll almost certainly be able to field a strong 11 without a chip and no more than 2 hits.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Joccki_10 » 07 Feb 2019, 18:51

@Finisher1

How can you even suggest that FUL, NEW, car aren’t ideal fixtures?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Neath boy » 07 Feb 2019, 19:19

Joccki_10 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 18:51
@Finisher1

How can you even suggest that FUL, NEW, car aren’t ideal fixtures?
Beat me to it Jocki! Pretty decent run and one I had spotted to take onboard.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Finisher1 » 07 Feb 2019, 19:23

Joccki_10 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 18:51
@Finisher1

How can you even suggest that FUL, NEW, car aren’t ideal fixtures?
Those three opponents are nice but West Ham and Bournemouth are mid-table teams and not clear favourites in those matches, nor likely to score loads of goals. Basically it's the same as top six teams playing against each other, they are close matches with no clear favourites. So I think Pogba/Son are likely to outscore Anderson/Fraser in GW26-30. And I also think that the mentioned Laporte (plus his sub in GW27) is likely to outscore Maguire/Pereira in GW26-30.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 07 Feb 2019, 19:49

Finisher1 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 19:23
Joccki_10 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 18:51
@Finisher1

How can you even suggest that FUL, NEW, car aren’t ideal fixtures?
Those three opponents are nice but West Ham and Bournemouth are mid-table teams and not clear favourites in those matches, nor likely to score loads of goals. Basically it's the same as top six teams playing against each other, they are close matches with no clear favourites. So I think Pogba/Son are likely to outscore Anderson/Fraser in GW26-30. And I also think that the mentioned Laporte (plus his sub in GW27) is likely to outscore Maguire/Pereira in GW26-30.
I'm sort of with Finisher here. The run looks good. But it needs a decent player to take advantage of it. Not every one can beat Huddersfield by 5.

And yes I am tying up transfers and taking hits if I aim for a GW31 team. Problem is I have no WC left so options are limited. If I FH 31 and build for 32 it might work ... But 33 could be trouble.

As with others I am still deciding but the 31 planning is complex and needs to be done now even if not then used.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Joccki_10 » 07 Feb 2019, 20:08

Finisher1 wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 18:51
@Finisher1

How can you even suggest that FUL, NEW, car aren’t ideal fixtures?
Those three opponents are nice but West Ham and Bournemouth are mid-table teams and not clear favourites in those matches, nor likely to score loads of goals. Basically it's the same as top six teams playing against each other, they are close matches with no clear favourites. So I think Pogba/Son are likely to outscore Anderson/Fraser in GW26-30. And I also think that the mentioned Laporte (plus his sub in GW27) is likely to outscore Maguire/Pereira in GW26-30.
So you will never consider a West Ham player because he doesn’t play for a top six side? Nonsense.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Vid » 07 Feb 2019, 20:22

A reminder to not insult posters whose opinions you disagree with.

Thank You!

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Finisher1 » 07 Feb 2019, 20:26

Joccki_10 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 20:08
Finisher1 wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 18:51
@Finisher1

How can you even suggest that FUL, NEW, car aren’t ideal fixtures?
Those three opponents are nice but West Ham and Bournemouth are mid-table teams and not clear favourites in those matches, nor likely to score loads of goals. Basically it's the same as top six teams playing against each other, they are close matches with no clear favourites. So I think Pogba/Son are likely to outscore Anderson/Fraser in GW26-30. And I also think that the mentioned Laporte (plus his sub in GW27) is likely to outscore Maguire/Pereira in GW26-30.
So you will never consider a West Ham player because he doesn’t play for a top six side? Nonsense.
Of course I will but I just think that as things stand many of us can afford someone like Pogba/Son instead of Anderson/Fraser. Of course if Anderson/Fraser are (at least nearly) optimal picks for your team for GW26-30 even without BGW31 factor, then it's quite obvious you should bring them in. I just think for many of us they are not optimal picks for GW26-30.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Bobby Fetta » 07 Feb 2019, 21:02

raoul wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 19:49
And yes I am tying up transfers and taking hits if I aim for a GW31 team. Problem is I have no WC left so options are limited. If I FH 31 and build for 32 it might work ... But 33 could be trouble.

As with others I am still deciding but the 31 planning is complex and needs to be done now even if not then used.
Raoul - have you had a go at planning out possible transfers?

Without the free hit I don't see how you're going to get a full team out in gw31, unless you get lucky with the FA Cup results. Based on the probabilities in Ben Crellin's spreadsheet, you only have two players in your squad with over a 50% chance of playing that week (Salah and TAA). Most of them are much lower. You have 6 free transfers before gw31. So even if you devote all 6 transfers to getting in players for gw31 (presumably one liverpool, and 5 from leicester, west ham and bournemouth), you might only be up to 8 players. Then maybe a couple of hits?

But, as Finisher says, that seems a big commitment and a lot of faith in midtable teams with not much to play for. Then FH32 sorts you out for the first DGW. But what about the second DGW? You then need a lot of transfers to get back the players who blanked.

For gw33 you have 6 players with over 50% likelihood of playing, so that seems more survivable.

Not intending to have a go at you by the way. I think a lot of managers will be in the same boat. There is a narrative in this thread that because of the early FA Cup upsets the blanks aren't so bad this season. There may not be as many blanks as usual but they seem to cover the most popular players.

I think lots more people will play FH31 than the discussions to date have indicated. But maybe Doncaster beat Crystal Palace, Newport beat Man City....

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 07 Feb 2019, 21:30

If I go the play GW31 option and free hit GW32 it will cost a minimum 3 hits in the next 6 weeks. And that assumes no injuries etc. So yes it is far from ideal. If I FH 31 and plan for 32 then 33 could be a problem.

I suspect I will FH31. But I want a plan B in case. And if all the PL teams survive then ...

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Nailer6245 » 08 Feb 2019, 12:52

I've been holding off on a strategy until we get the cup info between GW26/27, but this week I think I'll be downgrading Sterling to a 4.9m enabler to upgrade Success to Aubameyang.

Am I right in thinking the cheapie (Hayden? Puncheon? Dendoncker?) should ideally be someone that I can field in the blanks?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by muldoon » 08 Feb 2019, 14:52

I'm rolling my transfer this week so I've got 2 frees once we know who's through to the next round of the Cup.

The way my squad is at the moment, over the next few weeks I'm looking to fill out my squad with good doublers for week 32, so I'm looking to FH in 31 and BB in 32. That leaves me TC to play on the other double game week, and my 2nd WC to either set team up for final few games after the 2nd double game week, or do sometime after week 32 if the Cup Semi's draw looks a bit iffy for my squad. Happy enough with that for now.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 08 Feb 2019, 15:18

Joccki_10 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 20:08
Finisher1 wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 18:51
@Finisher1

How can you even suggest that FUL, NEW, car aren’t ideal fixtures?
Those three opponents are nice but West Ham and Bournemouth are mid-table teams and not clear favourites in those matches, nor likely to score loads of goals. Basically it's the same as top six teams playing against each other, they are close matches with no clear favourites. So I think Pogba/Son are likely to outscore Anderson/Fraser in GW26-30. And I also think that the mentioned Laporte (plus his sub in GW27) is likely to outscore Maguire/Pereira in GW26-30.
So you will never consider a West Ham player because he doesn’t play for a top six side? Nonsense.
I would be very wary of WH and I have had both Arnie and Anderson in my side this year. I remember getting excited about this run of fixtures: BUR hud MCY new CAR CPL ful. That yielded 3 wins and 3 defeats, no clean sheets, and 11 goals with 3 blanks. The one player who did stand out was Anderson. I might go that way again but West Ham just seem way too inconsistent to be especially enthusiastic about any of their players.

Completely disagree with Finisher about the Leicester defence v Laporte though. But I have history with Laporte.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 08 Feb 2019, 15:28

One thing that worries me about a FH in GW31 - if we are left with only 4 fixtures, is everyone going to have pretty much the same team that week?

Would be so tempting to go all in on Fulham and Burnley and aim for a huge differential...

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by BobMem » 08 Feb 2019, 20:55

raoul wrote:One thing that worries me about a FH in GW31 - if we are left with only 4 fixtures, is everyone going to have pretty much the same team that week?

Would be so tempting to go all in on Fulham and Burnley and aim for a huge differential...
Burnley to win 1-0 at home.

Go with the keeper, Mee and captain Tarkowski (who will score the only goal).

Job done! :D

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Beerfuelledman » 08 Feb 2019, 22:13

What is everyone who is enthusiastically FHitting in GW31 doing in BGW33?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Stevieste » 08 Feb 2019, 22:22

Beerfuelledman wrote:
08 Feb 2019, 22:13
What is everyone who is enthusiastically FHitting in GW31 doing in BGW33?
Praying can field 11 players 🤷‍♂️

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 09 Feb 2019, 01:11

Beerfuelledman wrote:
08 Feb 2019, 22:13
What is everyone who is enthusiastically FHitting in GW31 doing in BGW33?
Crying? Begging for mercy?

Starting to plan for next season?

Personally I will be watching the mighty Hoops beating Chelsea in our semi final.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Finisher1 » 09 Feb 2019, 10:21

Beerfuelledman wrote:
08 Feb 2019, 22:13
What is everyone who is enthusiastically FHitting in GW31 doing in BGW33?
It's probably a smaller blank including more big teams, so perhaps it's doable with WC32 or even with your regular GW32 team.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 09 Feb 2019, 10:44


Probably//possibly
It may well work out the way that you predict. Because there is still as much* chance that it won’t I am keeping options open

*not odds checked that beyond Ben Crellin’s sheet. A Chelsea loss to Man U would give me most comfort if I was looking to take this approach

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Finisher1 » 09 Feb 2019, 10:55


Whatever you decide to do or not to do is a gamble nevertheless. Keeping your options open is a gamble just as much as being proactive, because you might miss a chance to make some profitable transfers before others.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 09 Feb 2019, 11:26


Yes, that’s always the case. I’m making transfers to some of the peripheral players who I know I want to move on - Pereyra, for example - without upsetting the core of my team.
Perhaps the difference is that until the next round of Cup games are over I personally think the situation is less clear cut than you present it. The point is probably moot. This week’s transfer deadline is five minutes away. Before the next deadline we’ll all have much greater clarity

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Finisher1 » 09 Feb 2019, 11:38


I'm not sure why you think I present the situation as 'clear' at the moment. I literally use words like 'possibly' and 'perhaps' a lot to express it's not clear at all, and I have said many times that Cup matches and draw until GW27 will tell us a lot. It's bizarre how you have interpreted my posts.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 09 Feb 2019, 11:56


I’m not trying to create an issue and will dip out of the exchange by pointing out that I said possibly not you. You said probably. That was the only distinction I made. Good to see we agree.

Have a good game week

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