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Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Resonare » 28 Jan 2019, 21:07

Chelsea drawing United is really good for those using their chips early and City getting an easy draw could serve as a trap for WCs later down the line.

Speaking of City - has anyone ever seen such lucky draws? First the CL group and R16 tie, then their path to the League cup final and now this :lol:

Though I guess as a Liverpool fan I should be happy? The deeper they go in cup competitions the harder it'll be for them in the league? :?
Bobby Fetta wrote:
28 Jan 2019, 21:04
I'm really struggling on what to do on dgw25 - currently have no Man City. Will probably only bring in Aguero but if City continue their goalscoring form not having Sterling/Sane could be a rank killer.

The last two seasons I've used my TC chip on the first dgw (Kane last year for 3pts and Aguero the year before for 7pts). I think I have that in the back of my mind that these mid season dgws aren't as good as the later ones for goals and points. But that is a ridiculously small sample. At a stretch maybe could argue that a team going for the title / CL place or striker aiming for golden boot against teams with nothing to play for later on is more ripe for high scores? Does anyone have any anecdotes about high scoring early dgws?
TC is the least skillful and most high variance chip ever. It's literally the luck of captaincy made worse so I wouldn't feel too bad about fails involving it. I'd be more worried if my Post-WC/FH/BB teams were failing instead.

On a side note - I'm an advocate for the TC chip being replaced by a DC chip (double/dual captain chip).

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Stemania » 28 Jan 2019, 22:29

Well, that was a tough old few days for DGW32/35 prospects. A fistful of shocks and now Chelsea drawn against Man Utd.

Ben's odds-based projection for DGW32 is down to just 3.6 blanks! Very low compared to normal!


BC's odds-based GW31 Blank Chances:

Man United vs Man City (88.95% blank)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (68.75%)
Watford vs Southampton (59.04%)
Wolves vs Arsenal (57.69%)
Everton vs Chelsea (55.75%)
Brighton vs Cardiff (33.29%)

West Ham vs Huddersfield (0%)
Bournemouth vs Newcastle (0%)
Burnley vs Leicester (0%)
Fulham vs Liverpool (0%)

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Joccki_10 » 28 Jan 2019, 22:45

Stemania wrote:Well, that was a tough old few days for DGW32/35 prospects. A fistful of shocks and now Chelsea drawn against Man Utd.

Ben's odds-based projection for DGW32 is down to just 3.6 blanks! Very low compared to normal!


BC's odds-based GW31 Blank Chances:

Man United vs Man City (88.95% blank)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (68.75%)
Watford vs Southampton (59.04%)
Wolves vs Arsenal (57.69%)
Everton vs Chelsea (55.75%)
Brighton vs Cardiff (33.29%)

West Ham vs Huddersfield (0%)
Bournemouth vs Newcastle (0%)
Burnley vs Leicester (0%)
Fulham vs Liverpool (0%)
Can you relate any consequences to that, Stem? As a matter of fact what do you think of a FH25 now?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 28 Jan 2019, 23:08

Chelsea's rearranged fixture v Brighton … could it feasibly be rescheduled for any time soon? Or are they likely to wait until the Cup 5th round has happened, to see if both clubs are out and an FA Cup weekend can be used?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Stemania » 28 Jan 2019, 23:17

@J_10

The fewer DGWs there are (or rather, the fewer investible DGW32/25 teams there are), the weaker just about any chip combination is in the later 31-35 period, so for sure recent events improve the relative prospects of FH25. The question really is how far behind that strategy potentially was already and how much of the gap this closes. As with every strategy choice, the answer will likely be different for every team. :)

It's fairly obvious that choosing to FH in DGW25 relies heavily on confidence in City players for their double. They are very likely to have blanks in both 27 and 31 (and in 33 after DGW32), so there are genuine reasons why a manager might be against keeping City assets much longer term - so for managers without many/any City assets right now I can see why it might be alluring to boomerang them in and out.

You can make a similar argument with Chelsea players since they play HUD in GW25 and would be likely targets in a FH. They too are likely to have 3 blanks in 7 gameweeks from GW27 onwards so are unlikely to be excellent long term investments.

What's worth noting though, is that Everton will have one blank at most in 31/33, possibly none (depending on Chelsea's cup fate). So the same argument is not true of their doubler players (and WOL, MCI isn't amazing for an Everton team out of form).

If Chelsea had gotten a double too (especially given it would have been HUD, BHA) then there'd have been a reasonably strong argument for FH25 I think. But with the rotation risk on certain City players (given it's CHE up in GW26) it's still potentially a struggle to see how it would maximise a FH's utility.

One of the biggest arguments one might still have against FH25 is the argument for the alternatives: the proximity to the surrounding blanks make GW32 such a huge candidate for FH because similar players are likely to be desirable in GW31 and 33 (and a disjoint set of players to those desirable in GW32). Picking players while ignoring DGW32 in the run-up and you'll potentially be able to get 2 extra fixtures from non-blankers over the spell (and/or save a lot of transfers) should you FH32. If instead the WC is played in GW32 (with a view to picking double-doublers for 32 & 35) then the blanks in GW33 will potentially represent a big hit - so that loss is what really needs to be weighed against FH25's gains I think.

Of course, there's a similar issue with GW25 doublers not being available in GW27, but we've all got two gameweeks and two transfers (+1 if saved) to fix that, and only two team's worth of players to get rid of. :D

So, the arguments are still roughly the same each way I think. Only that the relative strength of the argument for a later FH is slightly reduced due to the smaller pool of DGW32/35 players and the slightly reduced severity of the surrounding blanks blanks.




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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Stemania » 28 Jan 2019, 23:27

raoul wrote:
28 Jan 2019, 23:08
Chelsea's rearranged fixture v Brighton … could it feasibly be rescheduled for any time soon? Or are they likely to wait until the Cup 5th round has happened, to see if both clubs are out and an FA Cup weekend can be used?
There are currently no slots to rearrange it to, so it can't go any time soon (unless a very drastic and unprecedented decision is made). I'd suggest it's overwhelmingly likely that it will be left as long as possible, with the hope Chelsea drop out of a competition. With them drawing United in the cup the pressure is eased slightly.

If Chelsea lose in the FA Cup before the semis, then the CHE vs BHA game will simply slot into one of the standard DGWs 32/35. (Edit: unless BHA get to the semis themselves of course, thanks AR)

If they progress in the FA Cup and go out of the EL, then the game would go in some European midweek - very likely to be a DGW36/37 in view of their R32 draw. But could also delete their GW33 blank or add a DGW34 should they go out in R16.

Either way, it'll almost certainly be a good while till we hear. :D


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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 28 Jan 2019, 23:56

Stemania wrote:
28 Jan 2019, 23:27

If Chelsea lose in the FA Cup before the semis, then the CHE vs BHA game will simply slot into one of the standard DGWs 32/35.
Pedant alert - this assumes (I think) that BHA don't get to the cup semi-final :lol: :lol:
Having said that, I suspect you are correct in your analysis.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 28 Jan 2019, 23:59

this is really taxing my brain, so thanks Stem for the detail of your thoughts.

I had not been that up for the DGW but now I am seeing some possibilities.

However. And it is a big however.

MC are going to have another DGW, and Kane could reappear in time for a Spurs fixture pile up - not because of Spurs success, but because their GW 31 and 33 opponents are still in the cup.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Stemania » 29 Jan 2019, 00:03


Aldershot Rejects wrote: Pedant alert - this assumes (I think) that BHA don't get to the cup semi-final Image Image
Ha ha, yes assuming this. But the odds of them winning a replay plus two subsequent rounds are quite low. :mrgreen:

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 29 Jan 2019, 00:11

Stemania wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 00:03
Aldershot Rejects wrote: Pedant alert - this assumes (I think) that BHA don't get to the cup semi-final Image Image
Ha ha, yes assuming this. But the odds of them winning a replay plus two subsequent rounds are quite low. :mrgreen:
I'm old enough to remember "Smith must score" in their final v Man Utd so who knows. The draw has been relatively kind to them although Derby will be tough if they beat WBA.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 29 Jan 2019, 00:27

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 00:11
Stemania wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 00:03
Aldershot Rejects wrote: Pedant alert - this assumes (I think) that BHA don't get to the cup semi-final Image Image
Ha ha, yes assuming this. But the odds of them winning a replay plus two subsequent rounds are quite low. :mrgreen:
I'm old enough to remember "Smith must score" in their final v Man Utd so who knows. The draw has been relatively kind to them although Derby will be tough if they beat WBA.

Ahh, FA Cup Final Day in the 1980s. Walk into town to buy program (from John Menzies, who always seemed to have them), then watch from midday as the procession to Wembley took place from each team's hotel on the outskirts of London.

Smith must score...and then the replay was on the Thursday night, and I couldn't watch it as I was on stage at the Albert Hall (such a luvvie)

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Finisher1 » 29 Jan 2019, 06:27

Stemania wrote:
28 Jan 2019, 22:29
Well, that was a tough old few days for DGW32/35 prospects. A fistful of shocks and now Chelsea drawn against Man Utd.

Ben's odds-based projection for DGW32 is down to just 3.6 blanks! Very low compared to normal!


BC's odds-based GW31 Blank Chances:

Man United vs Man City (88.95% blank)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (68.75%)
Watford vs Southampton (59.04%)
Wolves vs Arsenal (57.69%)
Everton vs Chelsea (55.75%)
Brighton vs Cardiff (33.29%)

West Ham vs Huddersfield (0%)
Bournemouth vs Newcastle (0%)
Burnley vs Leicester (0%)
Fulham vs Liverpool (0%)
Well, based on yesterday's draw it can easily be at least five blanks including 4-5 top six teams blanking.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Oxford NZ » 29 Jan 2019, 06:46

raoul wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 00:27

Smith must score...and then the replay was on the Thursday night, and I couldn't watch it as I was on stage at the Albert Hall (such a luvvie)
I found a youtube clip for the Gordon Smith miss, is there a clip from the Albert hall Raoul?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 29 Jan 2019, 07:58

Oxford NZ wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 06:46
raoul wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 00:27

Smith must score...and then the replay was on the Thursday night, and I couldn't watch it as I was on stage at the Albert Hall (such a luvvie)
I found a youtube clip for the Gordon Smith miss, is there a clip from the Albert hall Raoul?
:lol: :lol:

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 29 Jan 2019, 09:55

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 07:58
Oxford NZ wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 06:46
raoul wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 00:27

Smith must score...and then the replay was on the Thursday night, and I couldn't watch it as I was on stage at the Albert Hall (such a luvvie)
I found a youtube clip for the Gordon Smith miss, is there a clip from the Albert hall Raoul?
:lol: :lol:
Thankfully not.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by xJosh- » 29 Jan 2019, 10:00

raoul wrote:
28 Jan 2019, 14:38
xJosh- wrote:
28 Jan 2019, 14:00
Do I do Hazard > Sane? That is the question. When will we find out if Chelsea DWG because I'd rather hold Hazard. . . I think.
The Brighton replay on the Tuesday means a DGW25 for Chelsea is unlikely.

Suppose they could play it on Friday and shift Chelsea and Brighton weekend fixtures to the Monday, but with Chelsea at Malmo 3 days later I doubt it
I've done it now & before Newcastle too so hope there's returns. Thanks for the info. Especially with Chelsea having to play utd in FA cup around then Hazard would probably be rested against a lesser side anyway. Just wish I'd gone with my gut and got him at 9.6 as it leaves me 0.1 short of Anderson > Son :x

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Archy » 31 Jan 2019, 10:12

I'm planning Hazard :arrow: Sane to give me my only DGW player (even Digne only gets one game now) :x

Stem - in my situation, would you FH for GW25? My instinct is not to, but I don't really understand what better opportunities there will be, so am happy to be persuaded otherwise!

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by raoul » 31 Jan 2019, 11:01

Archy wrote:
31 Jan 2019, 10:12
I'm planning Hazard :arrow: Sane to give me my only DGW player (even Digne only gets one game now) :x

Stem - in my situation, would you FH for GW25? My instinct is not to, but I don't really understand what better opportunities there will be, so am happy to be persuaded otherwise!
I am 90% certain I will free hit. And whilst I appreciate Chelsea's issues, to remove Hazard before a home game v Huddersfield?

My only real problem with free hit is that I probably have to give up Salah for the week, so I can have Aguero, Sane and Sterling as well as Hazard.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Archy » 31 Jan 2019, 12:05

Well raoul.... I agree, I'm not happy doing it, but have few other options if i want to get a captain-able City player in. Could take out Mane instead but he looks like a hold to me given his form and Liverpool's kinder fixture schedule.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19)

Post by RomynPG » 31 Jan 2019, 20:26

Magic wrote:
21 Jan 2019, 10:47
snout wrote:
21 Jan 2019, 09:12
Then there's always the possibility of a big snow dump creating havoc. :P
That'll be snow joke.
Image

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by snout » 01 Feb 2019, 16:21

I don't suppose there is any real chance of postponements due to snow/frozen approaches? Not seen any hint of it.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by TheRumourMill » 01 Feb 2019, 16:55

snout wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 16:21
I don't suppose there is any real chance of postponements due to snow/frozen approaches? Not seen any hint of it.
No. Doesn't ever happen these days, premier league clubs are too well prepared to let it happen what with undersoil heating compulsory, teams of volunteers to clear concourses, and better infrastructure. Even Huddersfield who have comparitively little resources and who last season were under about 2 foot of snow got their games played with no issues.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by RomynPG » 01 Feb 2019, 17:13

TheRumourMill wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 16:55
snout wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 16:21
I don't suppose there is any real chance of postponements due to snow/frozen approaches? Not seen any hint of it.
No. Doesn't ever happen these days, premier league clubs are too well prepared to let it happen what with undersoil heating compulsory, teams of volunteers to clear concourses, and better infrastructure. Even Huddersfield who have comparitively little resources and who last season were under about 2 foot of snow got their games played with no issues.
True - needs weather that grinds the country to a halt for games to be affected. A US style polar vortex would do the job.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by swadd1er » 03 Feb 2019, 19:25

I still have all chips including the 2nd wildcard and I’m frazzled thinking where to use them all..

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Joccki_10 » 03 Feb 2019, 19:51

swadd1er wrote:I still have all chips including the 2nd wildcard and I’m frazzled thinking where to use them all..
Just to let you know, the Free Hit chip is worthless. :wink:

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by blahblah » 03 Feb 2019, 20:48

Joccki_10 wrote:
03 Feb 2019, 19:51
swadd1er wrote:I still have all chips including the 2nd wildcard and I’m frazzled thinking where to use them all..
Just to let you know, the Free Hit chip is worthless. :wink:
BB too :lol:

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by swadd1er » 03 Feb 2019, 23:51

I guess they’ll come in to play when the next DGW/Blanks come around.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Resonare » 04 Feb 2019, 08:23

blahblah wrote:
03 Feb 2019, 20:48
Joccki_10 wrote:
03 Feb 2019, 19:51
swadd1er wrote:I still have all chips including the 2nd wildcard and I’m frazzled thinking where to use them all..
Just to let you know, the Free Hit chip is worthless. :wink:
BB too :lol:
You can add TC to that list as well :lol:

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by SteveieB123 » 04 Feb 2019, 10:46

Will now be following this thread with great interest.

Had a plan for the trip cap this week as always, first double gameweek of the season with just the one double, get the tc out the way and focus on the Other chips for the blanks/doubles. Brought in Aguero. Forgot to press tipple captain :oops: :oops: :evil: :evil: fuming!!!

Now have one to many chips!! Normally there is a break between blank and first double is there not? I'd plan for the blank and then wildcard in preparation for the first double, free hit the second blank.

This year feels harder to negotiate.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

Post by Stevieste » 04 Feb 2019, 13:25

SteveieB123 wrote:
04 Feb 2019, 10:46
Will now be following this thread with great interest.

Had a plan for the trip cap this week as always, first double gameweek of the season with just the one double, get the tc out the way and focus on the Other chips for the blanks/doubles. Brought in Aguero. Forgot to press tipple captain :oops: :oops: :evil: :evil: fuming!!!

Now have one to many chips!! Normally there is a break between blank and first double is there not? I'd plan for the blank and then wildcard in preparation for the first double, free hit the second blank.

This year feels harder to negotiate.

I had a similar problem this week, i used the triple captain but forgot to bring in Aguero and put it on him 😂

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