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Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Stemania » 14 Mar 2019, 22:17

The Chelsea result has only some very small implications:

1) Brighton's potential DGW36/37 now entirely depends on whether or not they beat Millwall
2) Chelsea can no longer have a DGW in GW36/37 (this was unlikely anyway)
3) Only if Swansea beat City AND Millwall beat Brighton could Chelsea's DGW not fall in GW32

I probably won't get round to updating the percentage likelihoods in the first post of the thread, since it doesn't change the percentages very much at all and we find out everything fully this weekend, apologies. :)

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Bobby Fetta » 14 Mar 2019, 22:38

Stemania wrote:
14 Mar 2019, 22:17
The Chelsea result has only some very small implications:

...
2) Chelsea can no longer have a DGW in GW36/37 (this was unlikely anyway)
...
Is this right? The QFs are in GW33/34. They have to win that to get the SF in GW36/37. Or am I missing something?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Stemania » 14 Mar 2019, 22:40

Bobby Fetta wrote:
14 Mar 2019, 22:38
Stemania wrote:
14 Mar 2019, 22:17
The Chelsea result has only some very small implications:

...
2) Chelsea can no longer have a DGW in GW36/37 (this was unlikely anyway)
...
Is this right? The QFs are in GW33/34. They have to win that to get the SF in GW36/37. Or am I missing something?
The FA are announcing all the fixtures before the QFs take place, effectively making the QFs act as the actual blockers, the SFs.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Bobby Fetta » 14 Mar 2019, 22:46

Stemania wrote:
14 Mar 2019, 22:40
The FA are announcing all the fixtures before the QFs take place, effectively making the QFs act as the actual blockers, the SFs.
Ha, I knew there would be something. Your knowledge of this stuff is very impressive. Thanks!

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by blahblah » 15 Mar 2019, 01:26

johnjoe107 wrote:
14 Mar 2019, 18:35
Eldorado fenomeno wrote:
johnjoe107 wrote:
14 Mar 2019, 12:32
Need some advice. What is the best strategy?

Free Hit GW32 & Wildcard GW33

Or

Wildcard GW32 & Free Hit GW33


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I'm going for WC32 & FH33 - packing ManUTD, Wolves and City players.
Manutd and Wolves are not playing on GW33, but come back with strong GW34 & GW35 fixtures.
Thinking about it, it doesn't it really matter in what order you use Free Hit and Wildcard in GW32 & 33? Or am I missing something?


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You either FH or WC for the BGW's or DGW's so it is relevant. There are wiser owls thsn me, but after this GW Citeh and MU have an extra match so stack up on them via WC....

WC for this GW is madness unless you think Bou and Lei will rock until the end of the season with Lpool and Vardy. Oh and Newcastle....

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Ruth_NZ » 15 Mar 2019, 17:12

Reviewing the CL/EL Draw

If Brighton beat Millwall this weekend then it is going to seriously advantage Spurs (and disadvantage City) in the CL. City will have to play on Saturday 6/4 before the 1st leg on 9/4 while Spurs would have a blank weekend.

On the other hand, this would be good for FPL purposes. It would mean that City would be much more likely to rest players in the FAC on 6/4 (assumes they beat Swansea) rather than in DGW32. Especially if they don't draw United in the SF, but probably even then as United will also have CL the following week. So, strangely enough I think the CL draw makes City players more attractive because GW34 won't be hugely pressurised either as they have the favourable Tuesday-Wednesday CL schedule.

Spurs also have that favoured schedule and how useful they are going to be for FPL probably quite depends on the Brighton result. If Brighton lose to Millwall then GW33 onwards will be very nice for Spurs, no blanks, no great rotation pressure on GW34, a decent double to come in GW35 (well, one good game anyway) and a kind 36-38. If Brighton beat Millwall then it's less good for Spurs for immediate purposes because they'd then blank in GW33. But GW34 onwards look quite good for Spurs assets either way for those wildcarding then. If only one of the GW35 games wasn't mci. :? That's the off-putting bit. But Spurs tend to show up after the event and if City beat them over 2 legs in the CL (as expected) then it would be quite like Spurs to end the season strongly after that.

United have the dreaded Wednesday-Tuesday CL draw. That means 10/4 Barça, 13/4 GW34, 16/4 Barça. GW34 is the home game against West Ham and you'd have to expect severe rotation risk for that fixture, so much so that I'd say that United assets could well be next to useless after DGW32 (being that GW33 is blank, GW34 a big rotation risk and GW35-6 are very tough fixtures).

Liverpool also have the tougher CL schedule but a couple of conveniently-placed Friday games will help them a lot and they are also completely unaffected by the FAC or any fixture compression related to it. There will be a temptation for people to lose Liverpool assets when wildcarding in GW34 because they play Chelsea that week and then have no DGW in 35. Will be an interesting quandary for those setting up the GW35 BB because the budget released by shedding Liverpool players will go a long way but they may well find themselves scrabbling to get them back in GW36 and even the GW35 game is one in which they could do some serious damage.

Chelsea are a bit harder to assess. Obviously 31-33 are great for them given the excellent DGW32 (which is next to certain now) and no blanks. A lot depends on how strong a team Sarri wants to put out in the EL against Slavia Praha on 11/4. It was probably the easiest draw they could get (Praha are ranked 72 in Europe by UEFA) and the 1st leg is sandwiched tightly between GW33 (WHU) and GW34 (liv). My guess is that Sarri will continue to deploy the squad in the EL (for this game anyway), knowing that the 2nd leg is at home. The pressure may not be on for Chelsea until the SF stage and they may not be seriously affected for FPL purposes until GW37/38 (assuming they make the SF).

For Arsenal a lot depends on how the Napoli games go. There is no particular schedule pressure on them in GW32 & 33 and the fixtures are nice (though no DGW in 32). It is 34 (wat) when the pressure will hit, exactly the wrong moment for those wildcarding that week. And GW35, though it is a certain DGW of CPL wol, could be affected as well. Arsenal play the 2nd leg against Napoli 3 days before the 1st GW35 fixture and would then have to play again 3 days later (or maybe 4 days later if the Wolves game is played on a Thursday, which it might be). Who knows what will happen here? They might well be coming out of an extremely tough game against Napoli (you can't see them going through easily anyway) and that would create tiredness and rotation risk. They might well have been beaten in Italy and be somewhat demoralised. Either way it's bloody awkward for people like me that would consider the TC in 35 (when Arsenal have the best fixtures on paper). I'd almost go so far as to say that's a dead option as a result of the tough EL draw Arsenal have, quite different to what things would have looked like had they failed to go through last night.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by RomynPG » 15 Mar 2019, 18:54

Ruth_NZ wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 17:12
Reviewing the CL/EL Draw
Nice post :mrgreen: - thanks Ruth - will be reading again.

Thanks also to Stem, and all, who make this such a superb thread - helping make sense, maybe, of what's going on :D

I don't remember this period of the season being this confusing before :?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Stemania » 15 Mar 2019, 19:49

Great analysis Ruth. :)

I don't think Arsenal players are quite write-offs for DGW35, but it is a tough draw for them. Depends how close they are to the CL places by then, as that will surely be their priority.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Ruth_NZ » 15 Mar 2019, 21:23

Stemania wrote: Great analysis Ruth. :)

I don't think Arsenal players are quite write-offs for DGW35, but it is a tough draw for them. Depends how close they are to the CL places by then, as that will surely be their priority.
Thanks.

Emery has big history with the EL and it has a CL place. I'm sure Chelsea want to win it and I'm pretty sure Arsenal do too. I don't think the idea of prioritising 4th place will be the case at either club come GW34, not unless Napoli beat Arsenal badly at the Emirates in the first leg.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Poison Idea » 15 Mar 2019, 21:54

The opening post to this thread is marvelous. Thank you Stemania.

In a social media world full of dull pictures and stupid one-liners, FISO is really something else.

Good luck with your Endspiel to all.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by carlitobrigante » 16 Mar 2019, 14:05

In terms of DGW32, should we know (or pretty much know) the fixtures tonight?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Stemania » 16 Mar 2019, 14:11

So

1) No DGWs for Newcastle.
2) Just one DGW for Palace (vs Spurs, in GW32 if BHA beat MIL or GW35 if MIL beat BHA) and one blank in GW31.
3) Two DGWs for Watford in some order yet to be determined (vs Southampton & Fulham).
4) One DGW for Fulham - see (3) - and a blank in GW33.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Stemania » 16 Mar 2019, 14:22

Watford will have a particularly nice DGW in GW35:

Away to Huddersfield
Home to Fulham or Southamption

Perhaps some good BB options there, and I'm sure Deulofeu will be on a few radars!

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Pirlo's Beard » 16 Mar 2019, 14:42

Stemania wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 14:22
I'm sure Deulofeu will be on a few radars!
Triple captain? :mrgreen:

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by um09a2k » 16 Mar 2019, 16:05

For those playing FH32, am I right in saying it makes sense to activate the chip now and get in the players you want in case you get priced out later in the week?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by RomynPG » 16 Mar 2019, 16:12

um09a2k wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 16:05
For those playing FH32, am I right in saying it makes sense to activate the chip now and get in the players you want in case you get priced out later in the week?
Sounds right - plays just like a WC in that respect - (except you getting your previous team back the following week with the FH - and WC you the current one)

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Tacalabala » 16 Mar 2019, 17:14

Stemania wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 14:22
Watford will have a particularly nice DGW in GW35:

Away to Huddersfield
Home to Fulham or Southamption

Perhaps some good BB options there, and I'm sure Deulofeu will be on a few radars!
Image

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Stemania » 16 Mar 2019, 17:41

um09a2k wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 16:05
For those playing FH32, am I right in saying it makes sense to activate the chip now and get in the players you want in case you get priced out later in the week?
I'd be tempted to make the transfers and not hit the button yet. As small a chance as there is, there must be some weird international break injury circumstances where WC32 FH33 could be better?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Finisher1 » 16 Mar 2019, 17:57

Stemania wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 17:41
um09a2k wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 16:05
For those playing FH32, am I right in saying it makes sense to activate the chip now and get in the players you want in case you get priced out later in the week?
I'd be tempted to make the transfers and not hit the button yet. As small a chance as there is, there must be some weird international break injury circumstances where WC32 FH33 could be better?
Just remember to hit some button at some point!

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by RomynPG » 16 Mar 2019, 17:58

Stemania wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 17:41
um09a2k wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 16:05
For those playing FH32, am I right in saying it makes sense to activate the chip now and get in the players you want in case you get priced out later in the week?
I'd be tempted to make the transfers and not hit the button yet. As small a chance as there is, there must be some weird international break injury circumstances where WC32 FH33 could be better?
I'm holding off until the fog clears a bit and for this reason also. Will either play the FH or WC - but undecided right now.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Stemania » 16 Mar 2019, 19:38

So, not only do we definitely have for GW32

Cardiff (CHE, mci)
Man City (ful, CAR)

but also by implication the result confirms in GW32 the doubles

Brighton (SOT, che)
Chelsea (car, BHA)

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by yttod1010 » 16 Mar 2019, 19:54

When will gw32 fixtures be announced

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Finisher1 » 16 Mar 2019, 20:00

Stemania wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 17:41
um09a2k wrote:
16 Mar 2019, 16:05
For those playing FH32, am I right in saying it makes sense to activate the chip now and get in the players you want in case you get priced out later in the week?
I'd be tempted to make the transfers and not hit the button yet. As small a chance as there is, there must be some weird international break injury circumstances where WC32 FH33 could be better?
I'm interested, which possible injury circumstances would force you to WC32 instead of FH32? Surely WC/FH decision in this case is made on the basis of BGW/DGW fixtures, and they won't change in any circumstance?

edit. Yeah, possibly if many of your GW33 players get injured?
Last edited by Finisher1 on 16 Mar 2019, 20:05, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Ruth_NZ » 16 Mar 2019, 20:00

yttod1010 wrote: When will gw32 fixtures be announced
Probably Monday. Latest Tuesday.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 17 Mar 2019, 00:56

Smurphy's Paw wrote:
13 Mar 2019, 21:39
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
13 Mar 2019, 20:16
Nailer6245 wrote:
13 Mar 2019, 17:07
Assuming that most of the top 100k still have their FH chip left, what % do you think will play it now in BGW31?

It seems that many (myself included) will have 9/10 out this week, covering the most important bases: Hazard, Salah, Vardy, Rob/TAA, Wilson, Fraser, etc. I'm not too worried about losing ground on FHers who have an extra chelsea defender or maybe an extra Bournemouth attacker, but I'm curious as to how many players that will be. If it's more than 20-30% I'd be surprised.
I don't think 20-30% will be far out.
I don’t have the Top-100k figures.
FPL Discovery reports on Overall and Top-10k. The proportion of Free Hits left are very similar at 75% and 78%.
So we can reasonably presume that around three quarters of the Top-100k will also have it to play.
Will a third of them use it in GW31 (25% of sample)? That sounds a bit high to me
There was a significant difference between Top-10k and overall use of the Free Hit Chip in GW31.
9.7% of overall live teams used the Chip this week.
That rose to 24.8% of the Top-10k, very close to the figures being discussed in the week. That is higher than I anticipated. You Nailered it!

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Stemania » 17 Mar 2019, 11:06

Here's the situation going into today - the result of Brighton vs Millwall makes a reasonable difference:

'Confirmed' GW32 Doubles:
Brighton (SOT, che)
Cardiff (CHE, mci)
Chelsea (car, BHA)
Man City (ful, CAR)
Man United (WAT, wol)
Watford (mun, FUL/SOT)
Wolves (bur, MUN)

Undetermined GW32 Doubles
Fulham (MCI, wat) -- scheduling coin flip (32 or 35)
Palace (HUD, tot) -- if BHA beat MIL
Southampton (bha, wat) -- scheduling coin flip (32 or 35)
Tottenham (liv, CRY) -- if BHA beat MIL

----------------------------------------------

Confirmed GW33 Blanks:
Cardiff, Fulham, Man City, Man United, Watford, Wolves

Undetermined GW33 Fixtures:
Tottenham vs Brighton -- blank if BHA beat MIL (would go into GW35)

----------------------------------------------

'Confirmed' GW35 Doubles:
Arsenal (CRY, wol)
Brighton (wol, CAR/tot)
Man City (TOT, mun)
Man United (eve, MCI)
Tottenham (mci, BHA/CRY)
Watford (hud, FUL/SOT)
Wolves (BHA, ARS)

Undetermined GW35 Doubles:
Cardiff (LIV, bha) -- if MIL beat BHA
Fulham (bou, wat) -- scheduling coin flip (32 or 35)
Palace (ars, tot) -- if MIL beat BHA
Southampton (new, wat) -- scheduling coin flip (32 or 35)

----------------------------------------------

Undetermined GW36/37 Doubles:
Brighton (NEW/ars, CAR) -- if BHA beat MIL
Cardiff (ful/CRY, bha) -- if BHA beat MIL

Edit (Could also go in GW33/34)

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by No Way Jose » 17 Mar 2019, 11:37

You’re a legend stem!

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Ruth_NZ » 17 Mar 2019, 12:08

Stemania wrote: Here's the situation going into today - the result of Brighton vs Millwall makes a reasonable difference:

'Confirmed' GW32 Doubles:
Brighton (SOT, che)
Cardiff (CHE, mci)
Chelsea (car, BHA)
Man City (ful, CAR)
Man United (WAT, wol)
Watford (mun, FUL/SOT)
Wolves (bur, MUN)

Undetermined GW32 Doubles
Fulham (MCI, wat) -- scheduling coin flip (32 or 35)
Palace (HUD, tot) -- if BHA beat MIL
Southampton (bha, wat) -- scheduling coin flip (32 or 35)
Tottenham (liv, CRY) -- if BHA beat MIL

etc.
Thanks Stemania, you have done a great job with this this season.

I think the Watford double in GW32 needs viewing with some caution. Gracia has made no secret that Watford are prioritising the FA Cup now and he rested players against City before the QF, in fact a whole week before the QF. Watford's most attractive game in GW32 (FUL or SOT) will be on 2/4 or 3/4 before the SF on 6/4 or 7/4 so there is going to be some considerable selection uncertainty for that game. May put Deulofeu out of contention, for example, and even Foster (who I'd quite like to have) could possibly be at risk. :?

Edit: in fact I wonder whether that scenario might not affect Wolves and Brighton (if they get through) as well. Brighton maybe less so because they are relegation-threatened. But a FAC SF will be huge for Wolves. As a result of them beating United, I really can't see the likes of Doherty starting twice in GW32.
It's the reverse case for City, of course, because the FAC is their least important priority and they will doubtless rest players in the SF ahead of the CL the following Tuesday. Making DGW32 less of a pressure point, as noted earlier.

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by The Real Slim Shady » 17 Mar 2019, 16:11

Stemania wrote:
17 Mar 2019, 11:06
Here's the situation going into today - the result of Brighton vs Millwall makes a reasonable difference:
So with many of the big teams missing 33 and have a double in 32, would it make more sense to WC for 32 and FH in 33? Because I was planning to use the FH now for 32 and WC for 33 :?

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Re: Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

Post by Stemania » 17 Mar 2019, 16:18

The Real Slim Shady wrote:
17 Mar 2019, 16:11
So with many of the big teams missing 33 and have a double in 32, would it make more sense to WC for 32 and FH in 33? Because I was planning to use the FH now for 32 and WC for 33 :?
Probably not, but depends a little on the Brighton result I guess - anyone who has not played a chip this week will presumably have a strong team already for GW33 already since both blanks consist of roughly the same teams.

If Brighton lose to Millwall (so Spurs have no blank GW33) then the call is probably closer. We'd then have both Arsenal & Spurs playing in GW33, but not this week, so maybe you could find some value in a FH33. I'll be FH32-ing whatever the result of the Brighton game as I think I have 13(!) for GW33 already (inc Puncheon).

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