Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - DGW25 Confirmed

[Stemania]

It's not just the holidays approaching, believe it or not we're now within 10 gameweeks of the first blank of the season!

Approaching blanks/DGWs inevitably leads to chatter about potential chip strategies, and how the chips are(/are not) best employed in order to maximise our FPL points totals. Last year, we had a fantastic discussion about all the FPL implications/potential chip strategies as the landscape slowly unfolded, but fundamentally the layout was quite similar to that of the 15/16 season (with a blank in between two big doubles).

As usual it's looking like two main DGWs this time round, and we'd be forgiven for guessing that the schedule would be similar to that of the 16/17 season. Due to summer international tournaments, the blank/DGW layout has tended to follow a two year cycle. This year, however, we are in relatively new territory and have a significant break from the norm. Luckily, the boffins have us covered on the fixtures side of things, with Ben Crellin continuing to make available his now legendary spreadsheet: Here's the expected schedule for this season:


GW27 (Small BLANK - EFL Cup Final)

GW31 (Big BLANK - FA Cup QF)

GW32 (DOUBLE Gameweek)

GW33 (Medium BLANK - FA Cup SFs)

GW35 (DOUBLE Gameweek)


The DGWs are placed very early in the season, and DGW32 looks conspicuously surrounded by a barren land of fixturelessness. Of course, there could well be one or more additional small DGWs should a team do particularly well in all competitions (and potential carnage if they also require a 5th round FA Cup replay). But, we've got to go all the way back to the 13/14 season until the first main DGW was so early, and not since 10/11 has the second main DGW come before GW36!!

So, how will this two-week shift in DGW times effect all our thinking on 2nd wildcard deployment and when best to play any remaining chips etc?

Will GW32 turn out the obvious place to wildcard (coming as it does after two blanks), or will it prove too early in the season to be able to optimise with a blank immediately after? Indeed, will the FH chip be the ruler of GW32 planning? Or neither?

Can we quickly rule out the use of some chips in GW32, namely BB, with the unusual case of blanks immediately preceding it?

Will it be best to leave the wildcard until after all the blanks are over and use it to recover a team for GW35-38?

It seems hard to answer those questions at this point, and knowledge of the precise fixtures will be key as always. But, what is for certain is that there is fun on the horizon! All FPL eyes should be on the EFL QFs tonight and tomorrow, as the winners give themselves a very strong chance of missing GW27.

What are all your initial thoughts on the unique blank/DGW combination this year, and how will it effect your thinking going into the second half of the season?


----------------------------------------------

Confirmed GW25 Doubles
Manchester City (ARS, eve)
Everton (WOL, MCI)

Confirmed GW27 Blanks
Brighton, Chelsea, Everton, Man City

Fixtures yet to be arranged
Chelsea vs Brighton

[Ruth_NZ]

Is it really so different? Everything a bit earlier than last season but last season everything seemed quite late.

Anyways... I'd imagine I will wildcard GW32 and TC in GW35. FH may be GW31 but obviously it will depend on how my team is set that week.

I think it may be more problematic for those that want to BB in a DGW perhaps. Looks like WC34 BB35 for them, doesn't it?

[Stevieste]

Nice post this Stemania, i will be keeping a close eye on this throught the season and seeing what people thoughts and plans are.

Seems a long time ago since i got the TC chip on the right player in double gameweek

[Stevieste]

Is it really so different? Everything a bit earlier than last season but last season everything seemed quite late.

Anyways... I'd imagine I will wildcard GW32 and TC in GW35. FH may be GW31 but obviously it will depend on how my team is set that week.

I think it may be more problematic for those that want to BB in a DGW perhaps. Looks like WC34 BB35 for them, doesn't it?

Would you use the Free hit in gameweek 31 ?

[swadd1er]

WC 30 with 32 in mind, 31 free hit and 32 bench boost?

Or free hit 31, set team up prior to 32 for DGW, WC 33/34 and BB 35.

The fixtures announced will help decide. There are many other ways of doing things.

[TheRumourMill]

Great post, always like discussing and reading this part of the game, even though I must admit I haven't thought about it at all yet, trying to focus on navigating my FPL team through Christmas first! Initial thought is that having doubles and blanks so early is a good thing. It means there is a higher chance that more teams will still have something to play for in double gameweeks, which will hopefully mean less rotation. Last year was a particularly awful DGW for me with mass rotation: Bailly, Sterling, Willian, hell even wes Morgan missed games over that period! But looking back with hindsight, a lot of those sides had little to play for, so were being more experimental with line ups. Thats something to learn from I feel. I found 2 fantastic articles last season (unfortunately too late to save me last season!) which found that there was a statistically significant positive impact on teams with things to play for towards the end of a season, and a statistically significant negaive impact on teams who are "on the beach". I enclose them below:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2018/0 ... ue-season/
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2018/0 ... he-season/

These findings will likely drive my choices in my late season and DGW squads.

Looking at the schedule this year, I think GW27 can probabaly be safely navigated with sensible use of free transfers. It is surrounded by quite a few "normal" gameweeks which make this easier. I wouldn't want to Wildcard in GW35 as I think this is too late to benefit much from such a useful chip - you don't give yourself many gameweeks for the Wildcard squad to outperform your old squad (or anyone elses for that matter). Also for the reasons I stated earlier - risk of too many unmotivated players from too many teams.

I think at first glance, either:

WC 30 - FH 31 - BB/TC 32 - BB/TC 35 This looks a good way of exploiting the schedule if you have all chips remaining. You also use the free hit when there are the most blank fixtures, which mathmatically makes most sense to me at this point. If you set your squad up well and are fortunate with injuries/form/rotation you can take 2 free transfers into blank 33 AND double 35 aswell.

FH 31 - WC 32 - TC 35 If you've used bench boost this looks good to me. You can "dead end" your squad to gameweek 30, focussing only on the fixtures up to that point. Then free hit an optimum squad for 31, then completely reoptimise for a WC in 32 onwards.

Interested to hear people's thoughts on this and what other ideas and suggestions they may have!

[Stemania]

Is it really so different? Everything a bit earlier than last season but last season everything seemed quite late.

Every year for the last 5 seasons the main DGWs have been in 34 & 37, so it's strange you got that feeling!

I would say that the subtle changes this year make for quite a different puzzle, and it's folly to discount them imo. The main two drivers are obviously:

(A) The simple fact that DGWs are two weeks earlier

That may not seem that significant on the face of it, but I think it has a number of important implications in terms of the types of player we would be picking for the whole spell, and as such, on the arguments for and against each strategy. Namely:

[A1] The league/CL places/relegation are far less likely to be settled, so fewer dead teams. It is likely that significantly more teams will still have something to play for in GW32 than they would otherwise have in GW34. Most significant might be the title race; it doesn't seem so likely that one team will be top by a clear 16 points by the time the second DGW rolls around, and there are likely to still be a whole 5 games left for the title chasers going into the 2nd DGW.

[A2] The CL semi-finals games are separated from the DGW period. Due to the change in scheduling, the potentially huge CL semifinal ties are separated completely from the DGW period, coming after GW36 instead. The QFs lie between the DGWs in their place. This is another factor that may make rotation less common around DGW time, giving more power to WC and FH chips, and maybe even BB/TC. It, along with [A1], may play into an early wildcard's hands, where there's less worry that double-DGW players might miss a later fixture.

[A3] The late wildcard strategy could be strengthened too. One perennial criticism of playing a wildcard on or just before the final DGW (on GW37) was that it had little time to have an effect on your team - it just changed a manager's squad for a measly 2/3 gameweeks (inc the folklaw crap shoot of GW38). Well now a 'late' wildcard in 34/35 effects a team for a full 4/5 gameweeks, so it has potentially twice the area of effect.

[A4] There's a reduction in the ratio of games that DGW players get their fixture advantage in. Not an obvious one, but imo there's a converse potential for a hefty change in emphasis regarding the teams we may want to pick from in a wildcard around DGWs, specifically regarding the strength of the best SGW players vs the weaker DGW players. As an example, let's look at one particular strategy and how it differs between the two seasons:

Say we decided to WC first DGW, FH in the Blank between the DGWs. Last year that would amount to something like WC34 FH35 BB/TC37. This year the equivalent would be WC32 FH33 BB/TC35. Look quite similar, no? They're really not with regards to the wildcard imo.

Last year the strategy would comprise of picking on wildcard players for GWs 34, 36, 37 & 38. Half of those gameweek are DGWs, so players that had doubles in both had the potential for 6 games vs the 4 games of a SGW player (that's 50% extra gametime) - hence wildcard squads are naturally skewed towards DGW players. If one of your players misses one of the games it's disappointing, but at least you may still get 5 fixtures vs 4 (a decent 20% increase). This year on the other hand, a GW32 wildcard is picking players for 32, 34, 35, 36, 37 & 38, of which just 2/6 are DGWs. So your typical two-DGW player has the potential for only 8 vs 6 fixtures (33% extra gametime). That potentially makes the gap far far smaller between the best SGW players and the worst DGW players.

(B) The fact that blank gameweeks are so close together

The movement of the DGWs to earlier weeks also compresses the time in which the blanks take place. Some implications are:

[B1] Three blanks in seven gameweeks. It's very possible that certain teams will end up with three blank gameweeks in seven!!! This could open up new strategies, even wildcarding for the blank period, or significantly altering our teams to favour players with blanks for the whole spell up to GW33.

[B2] Blanks tightly surrounding the first DGW. This is a very new thing - in fact, only once (14/15) since the norm of two main DGWs was established have we had a blank GW immediately preceding the first DGW - and then there was no blank immediately after it. This gives a new dimension to planning. There could be serious questions to ask about a GW32 wildcard, for example, if the players we want in GW33 are likely to be the same are those we wanted in GW31.

[B3] Fewer TC/BB options. There have been many options for the order and placement of chips in previous years. But, this time both TC and BB look pretty unplayable in GW32 to me because of the surrounding blanks - my first impression is definitely that one of WC or FH will be needed in GW32. In lieu of other DGWs being added due to teams doing well in all comps, options are thin on the ground in a DGW - perhaps only GW35 if a manager is keen to play them in a DGW. Edit: having said that, TRM seems to have proposed a possible alternative via FH31 and an even earlier wildcard.

So, off the top of my head, for me there's an awful lot to think about already that might make this year very different to those previous!

[Stemania]

I think at first glance, either:

WC 30 - FH 31 - BB/TC 32 - BB/TC 35 This looks a good way of exploiting the schedule if you have all chips remaining. You also use the free hit when there are the most blank fixtures, which mathmatically makes most sense to me at this point. If you set your squad up well and are fortunate with injuries/form/rotation you can take 2 free transfers into blank 33 AND double 35 aswell.

FH 31 - WC 32 - TC 35 If you've used bench boost this looks good to me. You can "dead end" your squad to gameweek 30, focussing only on the fixtures up to that point. Then free hit an optimum squad for 31, then completely reoptimise for a WC in 32 onwards.

Interested to hear people's thoughts on this and what other ideas and suggestions they may have!

Interesting thoughts TRM. My first impression is also two candidates, though different again:

WC 32 - FH 33 - BB/TC 35. Let your regular squad slowly descend into non-blankers. Then wildcard in DGW players for 32. FH the following week to skip their blanks.

FH 32 - WC 34 - BB/TC 35. Let your regular squad slowly descend into non-blankers/non-DGWers, and keep it that way through till the final blanks. FH in 32 to hit the DGW, then wildcard all the non-blankers/non-DGWers out in 34.

I do wonder if a WC27 - FH32 - BB/TC 35 might be feelable, wildcarding in non-blankers and slowly transitioning to 2nd DGW players after blank GW33!

[sstaffsw]

WC 30 - FH 31 - BB/TC 32 - BB/TC 35 This looks a good way of exploiting the schedule if you have all chips remaining. You also use the free hit when there are the most blank fixtures, which mathmatically makes most sense to me at this point. If you set your squad up well and are fortunate with injuries/form/rotation you can take 2 free transfers into blank 33 AND double 35 aswell.

This looks a good strategy and one I am likely to follow.

[Billy Bongo]

Am I right in saying the bigger dgw will be 32?

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[Ruth_NZ]

Good reply Stemania, you are clearly deep into this stuff already. I just took an overview before the season when deciding when to use my BB.

The main thing I saw was that the chance of a big team having nothing left to play for in GW35 (i.e. with 5 games left) is slim. So less worry about the rotation malarkey in general, as you said. I hadn't really considered the blanks being so close together, that will be a challenge/opportunity. But as usual I won't be all that interested in planning anything until we get through FAC4. Apart from the GW27 situation, of course, which can start to impact thinking after this week.

I wonder what the FA have up their sleeve if City, Chelsea or Arsenal go deep in Europe and the FAC and also make the CC Final. I guess you should include Spurs in that list too but on current form I don't see them getting past Dortmund.

[Ruth_NZ]

Am I right in saying the bigger DGW will be 32?

Seems so. The PL have defied logic in the past by putting games from the first blank into the second DGW slot and vice-versa but the timing would appear to be too tight for that to happen this season. So my assumption would be that all the missing GW31 games will go into DGW32.

[Billy Bongo]

Hmmm, so we wc into 30, loading up all the players who have doubles in 32, and FH the blank in 31. Use TC and BB for 32 and 35.

33 with be a bit of luck, as the players who blank in 33 also doubled in the 32. So some fpl managers will luck out, ie you ideally want players who were knocked out of the FA cup in 31 and thus doubled in 32, they won't blank in 33 allowing you 3 free trans for extra doublers for 35.

Thing is you can't control luck, if you get it the other way round ie your players got through the FA cup then you'll need to spend to recover, those things annoying but not worth burning energy on.

You could of course mitigate this by choosing players you think will get knocked out of the FA cup but arent necessarily the best options for 32. Now there's a challenge.

Wc30, FH31, BB32, and try and pick some players on the wc you think will LOSE in the FA semis. Easy, next

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[raoul]

as someone who does not have the BB chip left, I am also interested in the debate about how the strategies might change with fewer chips.

As someone in their rookie (and therefore uneducated) season, one query i have - why WC, only to then FH the following week? Some players brought in during the WC could get injured surely if you are waiting 2 GW before they play for you? I am assuming the WC is not urgent and can be delayed for timing reasons, which perhaps is a bit optimistic, but why not FH first and then WC later and therefore with more information available?

Apologies if the question is stupid.

[Billy Bongo]

Why is there a two week break between 26 and 27 ? I thought the two week break starts year after? Champs league is between 26 and 27, but weekend 16/2 is an empty weekend

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[Vid]

Why is there a two week break between 26 and 27 ? I thought the two week break starts year after? Champs league is between 26 and 27, but weekend 16/2 is an empty weekend

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FA Cup 5th round

[Billy Bongo]

Ah ok

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[Billy Bongo]

Thats important, as champs league around that weekend so the top teams will play reserves in the FA Cup

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[Vid]

Thats important, as champs league around that weekend so the top teams will play reserves in the FA Cup

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Depends on the draw (along with who is left in it) and how much importance any given manager gives to the Cup as a realistic trophy and EL entry.

[Billy Bongo]

No I just meant the teams in the CL, as they will be the players we would prefer knocked out of the FA Cup

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[Turd Ferguson]

My initial thought is FH GW32, WC GW33, TC GW35.

Normal transfers should be enough to navigate the blank in GW31. It will all depend on how the fixtures play out, but I like the idea of playing GW31 naturally, using the free hit to load up for double GW32, and then wildcarding after that to handle the rest of the season.

I have played my BB so that simplifies the doubles greatly. I can afford to mix in some blank/single gameweekers and bench them.

[Aldershot Rejects]

My initial thought is FH GW32, WC GW33, TC GW35.

Normal transfers should be enough to navigate the blank in GW31. It will all depend on how the fixtures play out, but I like the idea of playing GW31 naturally, using the free hit to load up for double GW32, and then wildcarding after that to handle the rest of the season.

I have played my BB so that simplifies the doubles greatly. I can afford to mix in some blank/single gameweekers and bench them.

This was my initial thought although as you say it will all depend on how the fixtures come together.

[From4corners]

FH 32 - WC 34 - BB/TC 35. Let your regular squad slowly descend into non-blankers/non-DGWers, and keep it that way through till the final blanks. FH in 32 to hit the DGW, then wildcard all the non-blankers/non-DGWers out in 34.

Yep, that's what I'm pursuing: FH 32 - WC 34 - BB 35.

Loading up on non-blankers in the weeks leading up to 32.

[stevewba]

As a first season novice , the double game weeks and blank weeks , could someone explain these in simple terms please ?
Cheers

[raoul]

As a first season novice , the double game weeks and blank weeks , could someone explain these in simple terms please ?
Cheers

also a novice, but the basic idea is that when the early FA Cup rounds happen there is no GW scheduled as all Prem teams will be playing. As the rounds progress, the assumption is that there are enough Prem teams knocked out so there is a Prem league schedule of games on the calendar as a GW. Some, maybe most, of those games will not be able to happen so will get shifted. So you may find that:

- on the FA Cup week, only a handful of Premier League games happen, perhaps almost none, but it remains a GW
- on another week, the postponed games will get rescheduled midweek, adding a second set of games to an existing GW, and the chance of double points on some players but not all

Hopefully I have got that right and explained it somewhere close to clearly?

[raoul]

oh yeah, and at the end of Feb is the Carabao Cup Final. If the 2 teams in the final are both Premier League, 2 games that weekend will have to be postponed and rescheduled, probably to a midweek date.

I suppose in theory they could move to a different weekend but the chance of that fitting seems remote.

[Valeron]

So Everton and City are now likely to have a blank in GW27. Anyone remember where the missing matches from the League Cup final GW are usually rescheduled for?

Looking at the FA Cup 3rd round draw, almost all EPL sides look overwhelming favourites to progress, apart from Wolves. This GW31 could be a real mess.

[Billy Bongo]

The idea of trying to let your team negotiate 27 and 31 is appealing, saving the FH and WC to attack the doubles. But there is a problem, all depends on who is playing in 31.

Feasibly 8 prem teams could be, and looking at the template now if Everton West Ham Arsenal etc are then will be hard to play 31 naturally.

Blank weeks can be opportunities, particularly earlier ones, doubles can see a lot of rotation and lets face it, we will pick a lot of the same players. Which brings us back to 31 again. FH that week could be very appealing if there are a lot of prem teams left.

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[Oxford NZ]

Too soon for me to worry about the blanks and doubles. I have played my BB for a gain of 19 (-4) and will try to save my WC and TC for the doubles.
As for the mechanics of it I will wait until the cup starts to cast its magic around the FPL world.
Blanks are not too much of an issue for me as I have not budgeted many points this season for them. I traditional balls them up and am happy with that strategy.
The Free shit team I have every week and I played that chip in GW 15 when I had more flags than the united nations. The shit that I had before I still had after and I lost a FT in the process. Net gain may be 2 points when hits are taken out. I still got 11 players out but the popular picks got rested or blanked out. I will change my FH strategy next season and only play it when my knee is stable.
TC went well last year for me so an improvement on that would not be possible. Some one in form, with something to play for and no rotation problems in a double game week would be nice but we all would be able to see that coming so not really a differential.
I played an early WC last season that set me up well, I think it was the week that Kane was a popular TC fail when he crocked his ankle and Finisher1 got upset that it did not pan out well for him, so that made it a special GW for me.

[stevewba]

As a first season novice , the double game weeks and blank weeks , could someone explain these in simple terms please ?
Cheers

also a novice, but the basic idea is that when the early FA Cup rounds happen there is no GW scheduled as all Prem teams will be playing. As the rounds progress, the assumption is that there are enough Prem teams knocked out so there is a Prem league schedule of games on the calendar as a GW. Some, maybe most, of those games will not be able to happen so will get shifted. So you may find that:

- on the FA Cup week, only a handful of Premier League games happen, perhaps almost none, but it remains a GW
- on another week, the postponed games will get rescheduled midweek, adding a second set of games to an existing GW, and the chance of double points on some players but not all

Hopefully I have got that right and explained it somewhere close to clearly?

Thanks for that , gives a few things to think about when it kicks in......