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Ruth_NZ
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Penalties

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Just some odds & sods about penalties so far...

The rate of penalty awards is up on last season so far with 45 awarded after 16 rounds (0.28 per game). Last season there were 80 penalties in 38 rounds (0.21 per game). The current rate is on track to equal the PL record set in 2009/10 and 2016/17 (106 penalties).

Teams that have conceded the most penalties so far are BHA (5 conceded), FUL & CPL (4 conceded). There are a bunch of teams on 3 and only Wolves and Chelsea have conceded not a single one so far.

Teams that have been awarded the most penalties are BOU (6), BHA & MUN (5) and CPL & LEI (4). I don't know what is happening at Brighton but there seem to have been 10 penalties in their 16 games so far. :? Maybe Kevin Friend has been assigned to a lot of their games. :mrgreen: Watford, Burnley and Huddersfield are the only teams to have had no penalties awarded at all to date.

The problem with data like this is that you can try to read all kinds of patterns into it which aren't actually there. I remember Liverpool having 5 penalties in 11 games near the start of the 16/17 season but they have only had 7 in 79 games since then. Perhaps penalties conceded may be more of a useful guide as it may relate to the tendency of that defence to come under pressure and react rashly, who knows? I have been looking at all this as I am considering bringing Deeney in but I'm not sure I'm much the wiser. :wink:

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No Way Jose
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Re: Penalties

Post by No Way Jose »

Interesting. Will also be interesting to see the effects of VAR on penalty award rates. I’d expect rates to go up a touch.

Also interesting might be each teams penalty takers.

I’d expect martial to be first choice taker for United now with pogba having missed one and being in and out of the team

I also see camarasa taking them for Cardiff now but that is speculation

Neves taking them over Jiménez at wolves is worth noting

He was off the field for Fulhams only penalty but Mitrovic has stated he is on them for Fulham

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Penalties

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Camarasa is Cardiff's taker, Warnock has confirmed that. Don't know about United and Stemania has described the situation at Wolves (below). Mooy has them for Huddersfield and I might have brought him in this week until he got injured. And Deeney has them for Watford of course (if they get any and he is on the field at the time).
Last edited by Ruth_NZ on 13 Dec 2018, 14:52, edited 1 time in total.

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Tall Paul
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Re: Penalties

Post by Tall Paul »

What's a penalty?

Finisher1
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Re: Penalties

Post by Finisher1 »

No Way Jose wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 09:53 Also interesting might be each teams penalty takers.
https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ ... ce-takers/

It's not completely accurate (for example Camarasa is not there) but it does list many obvious names like Neves and Deeney.

I'd be interested to know if you can find any other false information there in addition to Cardiff?

If I recall it right, some smart people have calculated that being on penalties in any given match is more or less equivalent to one additonal goal attempt in the box per match. I don't have a source for it and I don't know how it was actually calculated, but it sounds about reasonable. Not a huge factor but a nice advantage for sure. Of course if you look at underlying stats, they do list every actually awarded penalty as a big chance (and a goal attempt in the box) for a player in question.

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Re: Penalties

Post by Notned »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 10:09 Camarasa is Cardiff's taker, Warnock has confirmed that. Don't know about United but Neves was always the preferred taker at Wolves and I imagine Jota is ahead of Jimenez too. Mooy has them for Huddersfield and I might have brought him in this week until he got injured. And Deeney has them for Watford (if they get any of course).
I read somewhere that Chris Lowe could potentially get them for Huddersfield in Mooy's absence? Could be an interesting shout for the cheap defender I'm looking for if so.

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Re: Penalties

Post by hancockjr »

Is it about 75%-80% success rate?

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Re: Penalties

Post by Joccki_10 »

hancockjr wrote:Is it about 75%-80% success rate?
It is counted as 0.74 xG.

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Re: Penalties

Post by Stemania »

No Way Jose wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 09:53 Neves taking them over Jiménez at wolves is worth noting
It isn't quite as simple as that at Wolves. :)

In the words of a Wolves fan at the start of the season, their penalties are likely to be "whored around a lot", with the taker often picked on the fly. Last season six different takers took penalties for them in the championship and each took exactly one (inc Neves who was on the pitch for all but one of the six).

Jimenez has a truly exceptional career penalty record of 17 scored from 18 attempts, explaining why he was one of those in line to take one a few games back, even with Neves on the pitch.

If Wolves get a few more penalties this year, it's reasonable to expect a percentage of them will be taken by players that are not Neves, and that very much includes Jimenez (who arguably has the best record from the spot of any Wolves player). :D

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Re: Penalties

Post by TheRumourMill »

Palace, Leicester and Bournemouth can perhaps be explained to an extent by the players they have and their ability to win penalties, Vardy is an exceptional winner of penalties due to his speed, timing and agility, which is handy as open play goals seem to have exited his game entirely this season. Zaha wins them due to his dribbling ability, remember last year how many Milojevic took and scored, which were the reason behind his large price hike this season. I think Bournemouth may be due to the pace of Wilson and Fraser, although I must admit I haven't looked into them much.

Brighton and Man U I can't really explain. The only think that sticks in the mind about United's penalties is how bad Pogba is at them with his comedy run ups. I think Brighton have won a few through Duffy being manhandled in the box on corners and the like. Murray is a reliable taker of them too.

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Re: Penalties

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Finisher1 wrote:https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ ... ce-takers/

It's not completely accurate (for example Camarasa is not there) but it does list many obvious names like Neves and Deeney.

I'd be interested to know if you can find any other false information there in addition to Cardiff?

If I recall it right, some smart people have calculated that being on penalties in any given match is more or less equivalent to one additonal goal attempt in the box per match. I don't have a source for it and I don't know how it was actually calculated, but it sounds about reasonable. Not a huge factor but a nice advantage for sure. Of course if you look at underlying stats, they do list every actually awarded penalty as a big chance (and a goal attempt in the box) for a player in question.
I didn't quote it precisely because it's inaccurate. :) If Stemania is right (which I assume he is) then it's wrong about Neves as well and I don't think anyone knows who takes the next one at United, do they? Löwe could indeed be on pens at Huddersfield for the next month or two (Mooy injured and then at the Asia Cup), he certainly has taken them for Huddersfield before.

If we take 0.25 penalties per game as a ballpark and assume that every team has an equal chance of getting them (which is a bit of a can of worms) then a team could expect a penalty once in 8 games on average. If there is an 80% chance of scoring then that means 3.2 points per 8 games if a striker and 4 points per 8 games if a midfielder. But then a penalty miss is -2 so if there's a 20% chance of that then that's -0.4 per 8 games. Making a net notional advantage of 0.35 points per game if a striker and 0.45 for a midfielder. Plus there's a boost in the likelihood of BPs when a penalty is scored and a loss in the BPS when it is missed/saved but I'm not going to try to quantify that in terms of points, it would take ages. :lol:

The problem is that this is, once again, potentially a big red herring because penalties are so random (or appear to be) and you just can't know which team will get a run of them and which will get a run with few or none of them. You really can't recognise any pattern even if you look over seasons, I can't anyway. Hazard is the most fouled player in the PL (or was when I last looked) and is in the box a lot, so you might assume that means lots of penalties for Chelsea. But it doesn't, last season for example they only had 3 all season, 25% below the PL average. Teams have simply learned not to touch him or attempt to tackle him in the box, they just surround him and attempt to block him out. That's how the Chelsea first goal against City was scored last weekend.

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Re: Penalties

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Tall Paul wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 10:20 What's a penalty?
+1

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Re: Penalties

Post by Finisher1 »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 14:42
Finisher1 wrote:https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ ... ce-takers/

It's not completely accurate (for example Camarasa is not there) but it does list many obvious names like Neves and Deeney.

I'd be interested to know if you can find any other false information there in addition to Cardiff?

If I recall it right, some smart people have calculated that being on penalties in any given match is more or less equivalent to one additonal goal attempt in the box per match. I don't have a source for it and I don't know how it was actually calculated, but it sounds about reasonable. Not a huge factor but a nice advantage for sure. Of course if you look at underlying stats, they do list every actually awarded penalty as a big chance (and a goal attempt in the box) for a player in question.
I didn't quote it precisely because it's inaccurate. :) If Stemania is right (which I assume he is) then it's wrong about Neves as well and I don't think anyone knows who takes the next one at United, do they? Löwe could indeed be on pens at Huddersfield for the next month or two (Mooy injured and then at the Asia Cup), he certainly has taken them for Huddersfield before.
They are right about Wolverhampton because Neves is the first choice penalty taker there. He's just not nailed on penalty taker, so someone else might well take the next one. In their table FFS don't state how nailed those pecking orders are, perhaps they should though.

The same applies to Man United. I think it's correct, just not a clear situation (again FFS are not wrong because they haven't said how nailed that pecking order is).

Anyway, it should be clear to everyone that most players on that list are not 100% confirmed penalty takers, just the best approximations.

Admittedly though, that table is bound to include some outdated information, because it is last updated on November 7th (as they state on top of that table).

Personally I use it as a vague guide, and I always want to look confirmation from elsewhere as well. So I'm not counting on that table solely. Obviously looking at each team's penalty history this season is probably the best advice about most teams' penalty takers.

Direct free kick takers and corner takers I usually check out from underlying statistics.

Ruth_NZ wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 14:42 If we take 0.25 penalties per game as a ballpark and assume that every team has an equal chance of getting them (which is a bit of a can of worms) then a team could expect a penalty once in 8 games on average. If there is an 80% chance of scoring then that means 3.2 points per 8 games if a striker and 4 points per 8 games if a midfielder. But then a penalty miss is -2 so if there's a 20% chance of that then that's -0.4 per 8 games. Making a net notional advantage of 0.35 points per game if a striker and 0.45 for a midfielder. Plus there's a boost in the likelihood of BPs when a penalty is scored and a loss in the BPS when it is missed/saved but I'm not going to try to quantify that in terms of points, it would take ages. :lol:

The problem is that this is, once again, potentially a big red herring because penalties are so random (or appear to be) and you just can't know which team will get a run of them and which will get a run with few or none of them. You really can't recognise any pattern even if you look over seasons, I can't anyway. Hazard is the most fouled player in the PL (or was when I last looked) and is in the box a lot, so you might assume that means lots of penalties for Chelsea. But it doesn't, last season for example they only had 3 all season, 25% below the PL average. Teams have simply learned not to touch him or attempt to tackle him in the box, they just surround him and attempt to block him out. That's how the Chelsea first goal against City was scored last weekend.
You are right, penalties are very random. That's why I think one goal attempt in the box per match is a solid vague approximation about the value of being on penalties. Sometimes it translates into actual goals scored, sometimes not. Similarly sometimes a penalty taker is awarded (and scores) many penalties and sometimes not.

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Re: Penalties

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Yeah, fair enough. I think 0.5 PPG would be a fair approximation to include the effect on BPs but the point really is that it could well be that Milner hoovers many of those 0.5s up while Deeney gets very few of them (or vice-versa). Or (as happened to me recently) Vardy is subbed-off after 85 minutes and then a minute later Leicester get a penalty which Maddison scores. It's nothing you can place much reliance on.

I like having penalty takers in my team but in all honesty I'm not sure it has aided me all that much. It's just an added attraction with certain players like Kane or Aguero and makes it more possible for them to justify a hefty price-tag.

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Re: Penalties

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 14:42 every team has an equal chance of getting them
Nothing to see here, Tall Paul, move along. :mrgreen:

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Re: Penalties

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Pirlo's Beard wrote:see here, Tall Paul, move along.
See what happens when you extract a quote out of context? :lol:

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Re: Penalties

Post by sstaffsw »

Re the above: Wolves penalty takers under Nuno...

Neves v Sheff U (A)
Bonatini v Preston (H)
Costa v Leeds (H)
Cavaleiro v Bolton (H)
Jota v Hull (H)
Coady v Bolton (A) (mercy pen to get him on the scoresheet for the season)
Neves v Spurs (H)
Jimenez v Spurs (H)
Costa v Sheff Wed (A) in the League Cup this season

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Re: Penalties

Post by Finisher1 »

sstaffsw wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 17:46 Re the above: Wolves penalty takers under Nuno...

Neves v Sheff U (A)
Bonatini v Preston (H)
Costa v Leeds (H)
Cavaleiro v Bolton (H)
Jota v Hull (H)
Coady v Bolton (A) (mercy pen to get him on the scoresheet for the season)
Neves v Spurs (H)
Jimenez v Spurs (H)
Costa v Sheff Wed (A) in the League Cup this season
What about Neves against Everton?

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Re: Penalties

Post by sstaffsw »

Neves scored against Everton direct from a free kick from 20 yards, not a pen mate.

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Re: Penalties

Post by Finisher1 »

sstaffsw wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 19:39 Neves scored against Everton direct from a free kick from 20 yards, not a pen mate.
I was just testing you ;)

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Re: Penalties

Post by No Way Jose »

Stemania wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 13:13
No Way Jose wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 09:53 Neves taking them over Jiménez at wolves is worth noting
It isn't quite as simple as that at Wolves. :)

In the words of a Wolves fan at the start of the season, their penalties are likely to be "whored around a lot", with the taker often picked on the fly. Last season six different takers took penalties for them in the championship and each took exactly one (inc Neves who was on the pitch for all but one of the six).

Jimenez has a truly exceptional career penalty record of 17 scored from 18 attempts, explaining why he was one of those in line to take one a few games back, even with Neves on the pitch.

If Wolves get a few more penalties this year, it's reasonable to expect a percentage of them will be taken by players that are not Neves, and that very much includes Jimenez (who arguably has the best record from the spot of any Wolves player). :D
This is madness!

I was aware of Jiménez’s Record and that’s why I was surprised he wasn’t the standout first choice after neves has missed something like 2 of his last 4 (don’t quote me 😂)

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Re: Penalties

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 17:34 what happens when you extract a quote out of context?
I wouldn't know, I would never do such a thing. :wink:

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Re: Penalties

Post by Ruth_NZ »

:mrgreen:

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Re: Penalties

Post by Joccki_10 »

Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 17:34 what happens when you extract a quote out of context?
I wouldn't know, I would never do such a thing. :wink:
Don’t get me started. You ...

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Re: Penalties

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 21:53 You get me started...
I wouldn't do such a thing. :wink:
Why don't you two get a room. :roll: :wink:

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Re: Penalties

Post by From4corners »

Finisher1 wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 19:53
sstaffsw wrote: 13 Dec 2018, 19:39 Neves scored against Everton direct from a free kick from 20 yards, not a pen mate.
I was just testing you ;)
Of course you were. Like you would ever be wrong. :mrgreen:

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Re: Penalties

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Sigurdsson has missed 2 and scored 1 for Everton this season. Surely there must be a bit of doubt about whether he takes the next one, although maybe I'm just projecting my own views on to that. Baines and Tosun are the other two named on the FFS list but are not in the starting XI at the moment. Richarlison seems the only other possibility who has taken pens in the past.

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